 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend wrap up show. Hope everybody is having a great weekend. First and foremost, today is correct. Well, Christmas. This is Christmas for full football fans opening weekend. I know a lot of you guys, including myself is the one day a year that my wife literally lets me sit on the couch for like 12 hours and do absolutely nothing. This is like celebration of laziness and the best day in my pain of the year. So holy guys, for all you NFL teams out there, we're aspiring views of championships. Good luck. Patriot is going to win again. Anyway, so good morning. Good morning, everybody. Welcome aboard. Welcome all you guys who are joining us via Facebook, Twitter, StockTwits and all those things in between. Hope everybody is enjoying life. Hope everybody is getting to where they want to get slowly. And most important thing is if you are watching this, that means you're alive. That means you're healthy. That means you're blessed. Everything else is pretty much a cherry on top. So before we get into the markets again, again, this was a very, very important week for the tape. Not because of what the market did. Again, you look at all across the board, nearly up 2% all across the board. But I think what was validated today is what we were talking about now for about two months. That the overall directional bias is not going to start till after Labor Day. Labor Day came and everything that we talked about that was a comeback with it came into fruition. You had your volume come back. All the players that came back from Labor Day, the big catch from managers, the punching from managers, anybody that could put a lot of money to work, they came back in. And if you noticed, especially for you guys who've been training for a very, very long time, if you notice there's a completely different tape this week. Very, very aggressive volume. The spreads got tighter, liquidity became a lot better. Even at the open that you had much more aggressive action, it was still much more controllable than you see compared to mid July or even early August. So that was very, very important. And the only question was going into this week was, well, which way was the market going to go? Because we were stuck in this channel. If you've been watching this update for many, many weeks, we've been stuck in this channel and accused for going back to the end of July all the way back, all the way to the start of the first week of September. And it was very, very important. Again, you can look at the news and you can take the news at face value, whatever the case may be. A lot more easing tension on the China trade war. And the most important part is technically, we got above this range. We'll talk about that in a few minutes. But what this range did was put a lot of the chop, that everybody talks about, chop factor into your trading. And when the market goes up and down, you can clearly see with your eyes, on the cues, when the market goes down, up 300, down 300, up 300, down 300, over and over and over and over, what's going to happen? What two things are going to happen? Number one, stocks are going to naturally contract. When you have a range going from here to here, everything in between is not tradeable because you can see with your eyes, everything is in the supply. Everything keeps on touching the supply. No matter if you're gapping up, you're gapping up the supply. And if you're gapping down, you're gapping down to support. And then you're trying for the rest of the week from the macro point of view, a kind of grind higher. Every single time you grind higher, you're going to have a supply. And the same thing to the downside. So it was very, very challenging. So the idea of when, again, this is one of the things that social media kind of ran with years ago, oh, we love volatility. Well, no, you don't love volatility. You love the idea of volatility. But when things get too volatile, a lot of aspects of trading gets really, really tough. Ranges contract, volatility expands, so you can't go long or short overnight because the random moves are very, very aggressive. It's going to wipe out your previous day's gains in seconds. So you can't do that. You don't have a clear path to the goal line because, again, the whole China trade is still on the table. So we needed this. We really needed this move, whether it was up over the range or lower over the range. We didn't care. We just wanted the move. And what's great about it is, again, the easy news came out and wherever you know, Trump and China's willing to sit down again and they pick the date. I guess they picked the date. That could change, obviously, by 30 seconds later. But the most important part is we got out of this channel and everything that became in this channel became irrelevant and now becomes a flop. So it's very, very important at least to have a point of reference. And now we see we have a bullish bias. So we saw some pretty, pretty aggressive days. But the most important day actually came Friday, right? I was having a really, really tough week, man. I was grinding out like, you know, it was a short week. So Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, I was grinding out my days, but we just couldn't get that big move, right? If you guys, especially in the live opening, you kind of see this, you know, you had these moves, 50 cents, a dollar. And again, it sounds like a lot. But when you're trading, when you're trading beta and you're trading $300, $400 stocks and you're only able to squeeze out a 70, 80 cent move or a dollar move on a $300 stocks, really not a lot. And it was really, really tough because again, when stocks were gapping up 200, 300 points, they already made their move 90, 95% of their average to range. You know, it was very, very tough. And the question is, well, why don't you short these stocks? Well, the problem is they're already above the range. Okay. So the moves down were met by rising support. So there was no room. There was no spread in shorting stocks. An exception of Roku, which was aggressive, aggressive short in the middle of the week. But for the exception of Roku leading up to Friday's day, most of the names, okay, most of the names were gapping up at the supply and kind of grinding it out. And especially like I was talking to Andrew Cordeau this week, one of the guys in the webinar and he said, he goes, man, you know, because he trades primarily Amazon. Again, there's no bigger range than you have on Amazon. He shorts at the top of the channel and he buys at the bottom of the channel and he tries to meet the spread in between. And the problem was, and he's been, he was noticing that the whole week, Amazon would gap up to that level and kind of fade down a dollar and a half, $2, $3. And it was like $3 of room between rising support and supply. So it was a very, very tough week, despite the big gap, despite the big gap downs, because again, the average to range was already gone. Okay. The average to range was already gone. The daily charts are already compromised. And now we were trying to really get value in the middle of the spreads. And usually the middle of the spreads would be fine. But when the top of the channel and the bottom of the channel are like this, and there's shrinking, shrinking, shrinking, it's very, very tough. What made Friday a really, really good day compared to, compared to, for example, Tuesday through, Tuesday through Thursday, because Monday we were off, because Labor Day. We finally had a flat open. Right, guys? I figured out what it was. It was down, up, up with down 30, whatever the hell it was. It was a flat open. And what was important about that was we were already above the range. Right, guys? We were already above the range. So we knew it was bullish. And the most important thing is for the bulls to see that they can live with prosperity, not to give up the day. Okay. Not to give up the day. And it was incredibly bullish on Friday. We opened up pretty flat, considering up down 300 for the last three, four days, and put up an inside day, which is incredibly, incredibly bullish after reclaiming the top of the channel. And now we know the market sentiment-wise is bullish. Okay. It's bullish. You could see the top of the range, right? We could see the top of the range in next measured potential, this 194, 195 level on the cues. And now we know we have volume. We have expanding channels, charts are now setting up. And again, we'll talk about that a little bit later with all the, all the daily pivot watches that I like for this week. And the most important part is now we have a course of action going forward. Again, unless we get a curveball, unless we get a ridiculous, ridiculous curveball from China or from Trump or anywhere in between, we should continue to go higher. Again, anything changes. Again, anything changes, headlines come out and we close below 190 again. Then again, we go right back to this range. And again, things are going to start to contract again. But again, you have to believe in technical analysis, right? You have to believe in common sense. And if you have eyeballs, you can see we're clearly above this range. So again, fingers crossed, if nothing happens macro wise, we should at least grind or at least go higher for the time being, knock on wood. So I kind of want to talk about, I kind of want to talk about something that is a very, very overlooked and that is confidence. That is a very, very important part of what we do. I think if you're a trader, number one, you need to have a fully funded account. Again, the age-old question is how much money is enough? As much as possible, times 1,000. There's no such thing as this magic number to be traded with. You need a lot of money to trade with. You need money to trade with. Because again, the last thing you want to do is put yourself in a situation mentally or literally that you're cramping for $50 to trade. It's not what you want to do. You want to trade for a living. It's like any other business. You need to have a bank. You need to have a sustainable bank to make sure that you are trading technically and not emotionally. Obviously, you need to have a process. Again, whatever, it doesn't need to be my process. I trade beta. I trade ranges. That's what I do. If that's not for you, that's not for you. That's fine. Again, there is no magic way of trading. Whatever puts stakes in your freezer is the way you should do it. Again, but my size of love might not fit in your size of life. That's fine. But I think no matter everything, no matter you take everything off the table, one of the biggest things that we talk about is so essential. And I don't care if you're trading for three years or 30 years or anything in between. The confidence level is everything. And I wrote this piece. For all you guys, you guys should check this out. I was writing a lot of these blogs. And for all you guys who like reading blogs, I put one of these articles that I wrote years ago. This was years ago. This is on the Axis of Traders site. If you go to blogs, I put in a lot of blogs there. Different tips and tricks and kind of antidotes that happened to me. All my time in this market is kind of navigating my experience in this market. It kind of really gives you a pretty good sense of where your expectations should lie. And I wrote a piece. I think I wrote this piece in 2017. I could be wrong. But again, check this out. It's called the transfer of confidence. And what I mean by that is you can go in. And I've seen this happen to so many traders. Once you finally do get a pretty good process. Again, it doesn't make a difference. Futures, options, pivots, small cap, whatever the hell you need to trade. Once you get that process, it's very, very important to kind of use everything and take everything for face value. One of the hardest things in life is to have thick skin, especially in this day and age. Everybody gets offended over everything. You go to Starbucks one year. They have a Christmas cup for Starbucks. It's like they have to take the end of the world. Oh, my God. You guys are celebrating Christmas on the Christmas side of Starbucks. You guys are crazy. So everybody's very, very sensitive. And that really transfers into trading as well. And one of the most important thing is to be very thick skin in this business. Because again, if you let this business drag you down mentally, you're shocked. And once you start getting a little bit of success, a little bit of consistency. And again, that consistency level, and we've talked about this in the past, that consistency level could be from year one, which is very, very exotic. Not everybody has. Very, very few people have that really, really just shot out of the can of success. But once you really realistically start having your first consistency, year three, year five, year seven, it's very, very important to treat everything as the cost of doing business. So for example, you make money. That's great. You're supposed to celebrate. You're supposed to make money. That goes off the table. When you lose money, you've got to say to yourself, okay, again, I want to make sure that I don't take a paper cut and put it into severed head. Again, that's called money management. But the most important part is not letting the little days or the little intervals, when I say little, I'll explain that in a second, really affect your trading going forward. So for example, and again, I'm going to use this gentleman as an example because again, he is trading one year. This is again, the point of not my experience. You guys already know my experience. You guys know already the living hell that I went through and I wouldn't put that on my worst enemy. But again, you want to use people that are probably the more in your shoes than are mine. Again, there's a lot of people you can find trading one year, two year, three years, four years, five years, and compared to people trading 15, 20 years. Again, just the reality. So for example, Andrew has been with me for like a year and a half. And he's done incredibly well. And he's carved out his niche again, trading Amazon. And he went on this really, really big run for like a month, a really, really big one. God knows how much out of Amazon, both long and short. And then one day, he emails me and he goes, Dan, I just can't get going. I just can't get going. Second day, I just can't get going. What do I do? I can't get going. I just can't. And you could see it. You could see his confidence level start to deplete. Okay. Start to deplete. And the most amazing part, and this happens to all of us. And again, I don't care if you trade for a year or 20 years, anything between, we start to doubt. Okay. As traders, as human beings, we start to doubt everything we did prior to present day. And next thing we do, we start looking at it as, did we get lucky? Or did we actually know what the hell we were doing? And the most amazing part is we are so fragile mentally. I don't care how hard you are as an alpha male, alpha woman, how crazy you seem to other people. Okay. We're fragile. Okay. We all know what happens behind closed doors. We all know that fetal position when shit gets wrong. Right. When things get really, really tough, we know. Okay. We're there by ourselves. And it's very, very, it's so important and so normal to understand that you will go in a major, major fall. Okay. I don't care who you are. You could be Steve Cohn, Dan Loeb, anybody. You know, David Tepper. You could be the greatest trader in the world. You will go in a mental funk. And what that's going to happen is you are going to start doubting everything you've done for the last 15 years, 20 years, two years, three years, and you're going to say to yourself, do I actually know what I'm doing or did I get lucky? And what happens is it's not what you've done. Okay. It's mentally now what you can embrace going forward. And I say this all the time, you don't lose your confidence. Okay. You just don't lose it. You just transfer it to somebody else. Right. You just transfer it to somebody else. And it's a vicious, vicious cycle that all of us need to go through, but it's understanding. You don't get lucky. Okay. If you're a trader and you make money three months in a row and you go a week, a week and a half without getting going or losing money, understand this. You didn't get lucky making money three months in a row. Okay. I don't care how vicious the bull market was linear. It was, you don't get lucky making money three months in a row. You've taken the steps. You've taken the proper guidelines. You've, you're trying to perfect your strategy. You're working on your mental aspect. You're dealing with money management with your patient levels. All of that got you from today just because you run through a cycle that you don't make money for three, four days a week, week and a half. Okay. It does not take away what you built the prior three months. It does not take away what you build the prior two years. All it's doing is it's taking a cycle, right? It's taking a cycle and going around and round and round and just taking your confidence and then just giving it to another trader. Okay. And the most important part is when you're going through a funk and everybody does, I don't care who you are. You can make believe you're not. Oh, trading is so great. Yeah. Okay. Stop. Okay. When you're doing this for 20 years, do me a favor. I was born at night, but not last night. Okay. When you go through a funk, okay. And every trader goes through that funk. Again, that funk lasts for two days, less, two weeks, whatever the case may be. Okay. You are going to the deplete conference. Okay. But understand this right now. It's totally normal. Every trader goes through it. Okay. And what you're doing is when you're going through a funk and you don't even realize this subconsciously, you are playing. Okay. Depleted hands. You're playing that two, seven offset. You're playing the six, nine offset. You're not getting queens. Okay. When you're getting queens, when you're getting Jackson, you're getting kings, when you're getting aces, like for example, we saw on Friday, that all of a sudden, okay, you go on a, on a really, really good day. You have a big run and all of a sudden you have a pep in your stuff. All of a sudden your confidence came back. Okay. And again, your process is different from another person's process. And all you're doing is getting your confidence back from another trader. So before, you know, you have, you go through a rut and you say, oh my God, I don't know what I'm doing wrong. Just understand it. It's the interval that you're trading. The longer you trade, the more years go by, you're going to see that rut getting from two weeks. Okay. The three days to hopefully one day and you go and you turn around and say, okay, I got it. It's the interval. It's not me. I'm not going to go back to the draw on board. I'm not going to scrap my process. All I need to do is be a little bit more patient. All I need to do is wait for that premium hand. And when that premium hand comes, I'm going to strike with extreme prejudice. So for all you guys who are trading for a year, for three years, for 10 years, again, it's not you. Okay. Just understand that it's not you. This is what every single trader goes through. The most important thing is stay patient, take a step back, wait for your specific process. For me, it's very, very easy to see what's wrong. When ranges are contracting. Okay. I know I'm going to have a problem. Why am I going to have a problem? Well, if Amazon's trading, for example, from 1840 to 1832, there's no range. Right. There's no range. You can turn around and say, well, there's eight dollars. No, no, no. It doesn't work that way. There's no range. We know there's no range. When Amazon has a range from 1760 to 1850. Yes. There's a range. And that's the sweet spot. And again, what we saw, for example, this week. I did what I had to do to get to the right side of the ledger, but Jesus Christ, man, it was tough. It was very, very tough. And when Friday started and Friday started, I said, man, I haven't caught that. I just haven't caught that big trade yet. I haven't caught the big trade for the week because again, the channels were contracting. So again, if you're looking at the markets, look at it from a broader point of view. Again, your process will not get highlighted every single day. It just won't. It's just a new reality trading. You have to be extra, extra patient. You have to be an adult about it. You have to save yourself. Look, weakness is not sitting and waiting for your, your, your, your, your lob, your, your, your soft pitch. So pitch, you could drive it out of the park. It's, it's, it's an adult thing to do. Wait, patience, measured potential. And when you have it all, like I said before, you strike with extreme prejudice. So Friday again, knock on wood, man. We had to expand the day. I really needed it. Again, for all those days, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, again, we're waiting for our trades. And again, catch Tesla for 70 cents or $1 or so. But again, I just couldn't get that big expanded role. And I know a lot of people as well, I spoke to Sam about it. Same thing. Sam went on a monster, monster run. And this week, for example, we just couldn't get those, those big, big moves. And again, it starts to weigh on you. But again, again, you didn't lose your confidence. You just transferred it to somebody else and it comes back. And you saw, and everybody saw how fast it came back on Friday. And when you look at Friday's session, again, thank you very much for the market guides. We finally got that flat open. And what that did was it finally created a natural organic market. What I mean by that is instead of a 90% average shoe range gap up, everything wound up flat, right? Everything was flat. Up a dollar, down a dollar. Nobody cared about those up a dollar, down a dollar trades. Because again, you know the measure potential because now we were already above the channel and ranges are about to expand. And that's exactly what they did. And Friday turned out to be, like I said, I think mentally it was a really, really good day for everybody to catch these pivots very, very aggressively. And then have a good head on your shoulders into the weekend and just understanding that again, it's not you. It was a specific interval that you're working on. You're going to be hit with a funk again. But the most important thing is take a step back. The lower you trade, the more easily it is to find that you're about to enter the funk because again, the market is not trying to trick you. It's not very exotic. The market keeps on doing the same thing over and over again. The only difference is your process being highlighted versus somebody else's. And again, not every single trader is built the same. Not every single trader has the same lifestyle, account size, paint threshold, and experience level. So how can you possibly have the same experience as another trader? It's just impossible. So going into Friday, perfect, perfect flat opening, which is exactly what we needed. And you could just see little by little, one by one. Again, that's the greatest thing about a flat open. Not everything triggers at once. You wait for things to trigger and things get very, very aggressive. So let's talk about this. Tesla never triggered. I like Tesla. I think this could be a really, really good trade, but it did not trigger, right? It did not trigger. It went as high as this two, where did it go? It went as high as two, 29, 60s. Guys, you see this whole range here, right? You see this whole range here. When this bully gets below this range, okay? And hopefully that'll be Monday. And it takes out the top of the range. Yeah, Tesla's going to go. Tesla's going to go, but it didn't do that on Friday. And the video was a perfect example, guys. And for all you guys who did catch this trade, I tweeted this out. I said, hey, guys, you want to see what an algorithm is. For everybody who complains about algos, if you're on the right side of this algo, you know where the measured potential for these algos to actually come, they're your friends. They're not your enemies. They're your friends. And, you know, we saw there was like 150,000 offered on NVIDIA 18020. And I tweeted out, I said, hey, just watch that 180 level. And when you saw the video, right, and you saw that in the video, what happened when it broke that 180 level, right, guys? You see this candle here, right? This is the candle. It just took out that 180, right? Took out this whole channel and went up like $1.50, like an absolute, what? It felt like a minute, very, very quick move. Square, I don't think square did anything where at least I wasn't watching it. I don't think square that took out that 64. No, never took out that 64. VOC never took out 58 because I'm still watching it. Lulu was a big move. It was stretching. Yeah, I said it. Lulu, we talked about this 201 needs to build. Here was Lulu, 60 minute view on Lulu, right? Here's the 201 right here. And once it started building off that 201, went as high as the 204 and change, big move there. Grubhub, 64.70 needs to build. Here was Grubhub. Here was Grubhub. Grubhub, Grubhub, Grubhub. Yeah, so Grubhub, 64. Here, here was 64.70, okay? Here was a 64.70 level. And that area right there, once it got above it, had a big, big move higher. Let's see here what else. BYND, nice move on BYND, okay? Really, really nice move on BYND. And again, these are what we talk about, sneaky candles, 154.50 area held twice. Again, only for aggressive traders. I didn't have a locate for this thing, which kind of sucked. If it builds below, it can flush more. Here again, here was 154.50 on beyond, right? Here's the 154.50 pivot right here, right? Nice sneaky pivot area, went down to 153. Again, not every single trade needs to be $5 move, but again, it helps. Roku, Roku 169.20 needs to build, excuse me, I forgot about the Costco monster move on Costco. 300 on Costco, right? Talked about 300 on Costco. It just exploded. Exploded through this 300 level, went to almost 305. Again, the pivots were really, really aggressive on Friday. Again, really, really needed it. Roku 169.20, if it builds, it can go. Again, this happened towards later in the day. Here's Roku 169.20, right? 169.20 went to almost 71. Again, nice move there. Netflix was good. I caught Netflix pretty well. Netflix was really, really good. And 290 Netflix held twice. If it builds below, it can flush. And again, here's Netflix pivot. Here was Netflix pivot right here. Here was 290, right? Here was 290. Once it broke this level here, 290 went down to this 287 level. Really, really strong move back. Like, I really needed this trade mentally. Again, I was having such a really hard grind it out week. But again, Mazel Tov. Thank God. Tests as we saw here. 230, still valid. That's obviously good for Monday. Amazon, this is gonna be a big number on Amazon for Monday, guys. 1842, 43, obviously never built there as well. So really strong day, really, really strong day to end the week, which is, again, I know a lot of you guys, because I spoke to a lot of you guys over the weekend, mentally needed again. When your process is not being highlighted, very tough. Very, very tough. And again, the key to the game is stay mentally strong and understand the rotation will come back to your process. And the most important part is the transfer of confidence that you gave away is gonna come back to you. So let's talk about some ideas for, let's talk about some ideas for Monday. Obviously, I really like Tesla. I really do. I think of Tesla, if you look at the daily chart on Tesla, right? If you look at the daily chart on Tesla here, the big breakout's gonna come, the big breakout's gonna come when it starts reclaiming the 50-day moving average, right? The 32, 50, 33 level, it's gonna get to about 36, 37. But you see this sneaky area here, right guys? I already see this sneaky area here. Once it starts building above this sneaky area, we'll talk about this in Morning Strategy on Monday. It could get to 233. So there's definitely a sneaky area here. I do like Amazon. I do like Amazon confirming this level. It's gonna be a little higher now than 82, 83. This Bollinger Band is like 83, 84. So you have to wait till it confirms the Bollinger Band. So please get to Morning Strategy early. Boeing, okay, Boeing. I personally hate this thing, but if this is your thing, this is your thing. You see how it got rejected here twice, right? On this linear regression line, right? 364.70, 364.90, everybody see that, right? If this thing reclaims, 365 that starts to build has a measured potential of 370 and then 375. Netflix is finally waking up, okay? Finally waking up. I caught this thing primarily short to the last several weeks. But you see how it kind of just kind of got rejected here in the 10-day moving average, right? It got rejected the same area right here. If this thing can reclaim the 10-day moving average, again, I'm not saying it's going back to 300, but I think if this thing starts reclaiming the 10-day moving average, if you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply, demand to demand. So if it triggers and starts building above this 10-day, you can put up a $4, $5 move. So I like that as well. BYND, again, I think it's a matter of time. Any close below this linear regression line, I think, is going to retest this 136 level. ADI. ADI looks really, really good. Again, you can see ADI, a semi-name. It keeps on getting rejected at supply. Top of the channel here is 1372. Top of the channel here is 1390. If it starts building above 114, I think it goes. And Workday. Workday was on our watch list for Friday. I totally forgot about it. 173 Breakdown. It's going to break down. I'm going to watch this work day for Monday. If this thing starts building below 172, I think it's going to start the next leg down. So, guys, hopefully that will help. I want to wish everybody an awesome, awesome Sunday. Go Jets! Yeah, I know I'm reaching. Awesome, awesome Sunday. I want to wish everybody an extraordinary, happy and healthy life, a great trading week. And again, guys, for all you guys that are trading, again, it's not about what you do today. It's all about the preparation for tomorrow. Guys, God bless. I wish you the best. I'll see you on the field tomorrow. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 Vault, where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.