 Magandang Arau, mga kababayan. Welcome to the Science Innovation Series. I'm Giselle Concepcion, a scientist and professor at the Marine Science Institute. I do research on marine drug discovery. With me is my co-host, Professor Benji Valiejo of the Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology and he works in the field of biogeography and ecology and he is the science, technology and society program coordinator of UP Diliman College of Science. I'd like to introduce our special guest today who is our expert on the big one. This is none other than Dr. René Renato Solidoum who is the Undersecretary of the DOSD for DRRCC or Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change. He is also the OIC of FIVOX. All of us aware of the role of FIVOX in preparing us for disaster preparedness, particularly relating to earthquakes and tsunamis. So Dr. René, can you tell us what you think is the big one? The big one is an earthquake that was turned by the media as the earthquake that can cause the most devastation in Metro Manila. This is the big one that is going to happen in Manila and it can cause many buildings to collapse and many injuries are going to be caused. Other than that, since Metro Manila is the seat of power in terms of governance and business and the surrounding provinces of Bulacan, Rizalcavita and Laguna are the biggest economic contribution in our country. The effects are not only physically, but indirectly in business and governance in the whole of the Philippines. So the big one is the impact of an active thought. We call it the valley thought system that goes from Bulacan to Laguna to the valley of Rizal, Metro Manila, and Cavite, to Laguna, from Bulacan. And because of this, if this happens, we should be ready because a lot of things can happen. First, the strong impact that can be caused if the energy of the earthquake that comes from a segment of the valley thought, the West Valley thought, is magnitude 7.2. This can be caused by Metro Manila, Bulacan, Western Rizal, Northern Cavite, and Laguna of shaking intensity or earthquake of intensity 8. This is the earthquake that has been felt since the 1990s in Baguio and Cabanatuan, where people cannot stand. And it is possible that low or high buildings can be broken or can't collapse. And that's where the deaths and deaths of people started. Other than that, of course, because of the operations of the government here in Metro Manila, there are a lot of services that can be stopped, if we are not careful. As many as possible will die. Based on our estimate, in Metro Manila, there are about 31,000 to 34,000 estimates. But if we include the Karating province, there are about 48,000 of our estimates. So what is the basis of your estimate? We have a lot of sources. First, we need to study what will happen in the future. That's why we will enter the stage of disaster imagination. If we prepare the disaster in the Philippines, we will really be able to talk about the faults that are active around Metro Manila. It is possible for Metro Manila to be destroyed. And we will be able to study this if the number of deaths and deaths are high. So to know the cause of the disaster, we need to get the length of the fault so that we can estimate the magnitude that it can cause. And if we know the magnitude, 7.2 of our estimate, we can simulate this. It is the basis of disaster and the most severe disaster is the intensity. When it comes to the effect, of course, there is an engineering aspect to it. How severe are the buildings that you saw earlier today? And the effect of the small, medium to high-rise buildings? And if we don't have any information, how many people are inside the house? And if the window comes at night, how many people will die? So that is the basis of our estimates. And we still have a lot of consequences, right? So the disaster imagination is very important. We need to know the possible events. Not just the inside, but especially the effects on us. How can we affect the individual, the family, the employees, the government, and the service? Benji was telling me that the big one was relative to the other 7.2, the other 8, the other 5. That was the big one. So the perspective of the individual is very important. So the disaster imagination is like an internal simulation. But it's not enough. Maybe the family, the community, the LGU, the province, the region, and the national, all of them imagine a disaster. And the demographics, the infrastructure, and the economies that can affect the earthquake or tsunami that hit us. So one of our latest disasters in Yolanda, you talked about the one in the Metro Manila area, West Valley Fault, right? What happened there in Yolanda? That's the disaster imagination that we can use for other potential disasters. So when it comes to the land, if it's also the Metro Manila area, West Valley Fault, Luzon, and Metro Manila are the most affected. If we want to talk about the place where we will go, where the land will come from, and how high is the island that comes to us. If that happens, how high is the sky, how high are the term-sorts, how high are the islands that can go. So that's the problem. But the impact, there are a lot of things to know. Demographics, population, building stock, how many people are there, a lot of people. Is the storm surge in Yolanda the same as the tsunami? The same effect as the tsunami. But the storm surge is because of the heavy rain that hit the land. The heavy rain that hit the land is because of the heavy rain that hit the land. The water is getting thicker to make it rain. So that's the earthquake that hit the land. That triggered the tsunami. So it seems like the disaster preparedness in the coastal region, rural areas, and urban areas. There are a lot of geographical elements and risks that can be damaged. There are a lot of things that are not exactly the same, although the storm is the same, but the scale or magnitude of the storm can also be different. You mentioned the disaster imagination. Because it is taught in our high schools, in general science, that we are only learning a little, not just a little, I don't know how many. In science, unlike here in NCR, because there is a student who mentioned it in his report in my class, who had a big learning experience in Manila in 1863. There are also drawings and pictures of the ruins in Intramuros. Can this be the earthquake that happened in 1863 related to the fall of the fault lines in Manila? If we learn about the fall in one place, we will look at the written records. One more thing we can look at is the ruins. Usually in the ruins, there are signage where the infrastructure and the ruins of Lindol baguio sunog were constructed. The earthquake in 1863 came from the Mecaragatan. That's why the tsunami happened. Other than the tsunami, the major damage was the ruins of the ruins. If you go to Manila Cathedral, there are many places where the old structures of the Lindol Cathedral were destroyed. But all the Lindol that was already mentioned in Manila Cathedral came from other places that are not the same in Manila. And in 1968, there was a building called Ruby Tower that collapsed and 268 died. But the damage of Lindol was more than 200 km away. If we can see the Lindol that came from other places that were already destroyed in Manila, how much more could the Lindol be the same in Manila? That's what we need to imagine. Other people thought that we were already in a state of emergency, but the building was only a small population. Before we talk about the West Valley Fault here in Metro Manila, can you say something about the earthquake in Bohol? And we know that some of the churches there. The earthquake in Bohol came from a fort that we postulated that could have an earthquake. In 2007, we said that if the earthquake was less than the number of major sources mentioned in the fort, one fort was destroyed. But the two fortes that were in the middle of it, the one that was in the north, were not yet destroyed. The churches in Bohol were destroyed because they were destroyed for the past several hundreds of years. Because there was no strong Lindol that was still in Bohol or unwritten record. But when the Lindol was destroyed in October 15, 2013, the magnitude 7.2 earthquake, similar to the magnitude that was projected in Manila, was destroyed by the West Valley Fault. But they were not reinforced? No, they were not reinforced. The people in Bohol were still in memory. In 1990, the magnitude 6.8 was still in the north. But in the north, the epicenter was still in the north. They were still in the north. So, sometimes, our experience in preparedness was destroyed. But it was not just an experience, it was a science. Because our imagination was based on an experience that was lacking. Because the large Lindol were destroyed for hundreds of years. But the good thing that we saw here, before Formal Science, was that historians and those who documented the events that happened hundreds of years ago helped us. Now, in some of the interviews that you have given, there are those who say that the earthquake of 1568 is 357 years old. 358 years old and there is a prediction that in another 400 years, there will be major earthquakes. Is that based on scientific studies? Based on science, you know, the killer earthquakes of the past, of course, not like the volcanic eruptions that caused damage to houses and people who could be excavated. The ruins of earthquakes, you can see, in the first period, there were not many houses built here in the Philippines. So, the geologists were excavating an active fault and we were studying the layers of sediment that cut off the fault. And if there are leaves or part of a plant that can be dated to carbon-14, what is the fault? We can say that after that sediment, the earthquake happened and before the other layer that was not affected. So, we studied the west side of the valley fault system. There are two of them, the long west valley fault, 100 kilometers. The other one is 10 kilometers east valley fault. The preparation of the wind, the preparation is the bigger one. So, we studied that and we saw in 1400 years, Feevox and the United States Geological Survey, that it has been excavating four times, generating major earthquakes. So, if you divide 1400 years by four events, exactly 350 years is the arithmetic average of the movement of the fault. But, the faulting is a natural process, it is not exactly the same. So, the range that was studied, the fault was the west valley fault that it was excavating every 400 up to 600 years. Now, if we prepare this, we will use the lower limit of 400. That's the basis. And if we look at the 1658, it's not the magnitude 7, it's smaller. But if we use the big earthquake, it will not happen for a long time. So, what can we conclude comparing this? Will the big one happen in our lifetime? Or perhaps you have 400 to 600 year-ranges in the next generations. What is the major source of deaths during earthquakes? The fact that concrete will be destroyed because of their houses or buildings where they are working. And if that's the case, how is our building code well-reinforced by our buildings, the high-rise, medium-rise or low-rise, to secure the lives of our... The cost of death in the earthquake, and also our studies, because we studied Lindo and Perkto in Metro Manila, in a comprehensive study on Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study with FIVOX MMDA and Japan International Cooperation Agency. The first death is total collapse of the building. The second death is the addition of the falling part of the building or equipment that will be automatically damaged while it's being sold. That's why you're still alive. And then, of course, one is the fall. During an after-the-earthquake, you can die there. But essentially, it should be earthquake and fire-resistant, the houses we live in. So, when it comes to the quality of our houses, our national building code and the so-called national structural code, that's good. The issue is the implementation of the building. And the implementation is a lot that can happen. That's not only for the local government officials, especially those who have control over it. They also have the same house that's being built. That's why we need to change the thinking of the government that doesn't rely on the government officials, our own community, our own house. That's what we rely on. That's a personal survival. Personal survival? It's not necessary. And I just want to explain that because our building code is good, and if we follow this, even if we can expect intensity 8, which is shaking in the development of the valley fault, this is the big one, it may not be destroyed during the earthquake. But because of the many non-engineered buildings in residential buildings, this is the one that's being done. It's being done. For example, people without supervision of engineer or architect, or even if you follow my building code, you'll see houses and houses in the valley. What we noticed was in contrast to the ordinary thinking of common people, that the high building is more delicate than the low one. In fact, it's more difficult for low building and mid-rise buildings because of very high rise. The residential building up to nine stories, 13% heavily damaged or collapsed. The public buildings, 8 to 10%. The mid-rise buildings from 10 to 30 stories, 11%. But the very high-rise buildings, more than 30 stories, only 2%. That's the difference, right? The major factor is the quality of construction and the second is the earthquake science. It's so nice to know that in general, we're not going to get casualties from collapse of buildings. But it's so important, say, for the government, national government, including the DOST and the public information and communications of the government to educate our population, especially those left behind in houses that are not regulated on construction. So what does DOST or DI Titi Bukod do to help our women? What can we do to reduce casualties and destruction? First of all, we need to make sure that people are aware of the effects on them, the disaster imagination. We made a survey tool that can do everything on its own that if their house is a one-to-two story, a concrete hard box, we can already know if it's built in Lindlion or not. How safe is my house questionnaire so that they can imagine the effects on their houses? You didn't tell me that. How safe is my house? I'm going to ask. You can see that. You can see that. The people who bought a house or condo, I have children, they're asking if the building is empty. Is the house a guarantee of safety? Because the concrete is empty and there's also a hollow block. Okay. Everything is empty. That's where we started. We need to tweak our educational system because we're professionals if we're not engineers. We don't know the minimum standards of a small house. Do you know that the minimum should be 6 inches wide and the scale should be 10 millimeters? That's the ribar. But we don't know that. Why? It's not taught. We developed that. He's talking about the ribar. We gave each one of us a chance to evaluate. Second, we need to explain that if the floor is close to a fort, the ground is fast. And the fast ground can cause the building to collapse. That's why these are mid-rise to low-rise buildings because they have a church in the morning. It's easy to break if they didn't build their houses. Second, we need to avoid breaking directly on top of active faults. We saw Benji, the up-that-you-put-up. That's the fault finder. Okay, Benji. That's the fault finder. That's the fault finder. It's really helpful for all of us. So people can imagine how close or distant they are to the fault. When it comes to building their houses, the real estate transaction will be transparent. So that they're safe in the location because it's good to have a safe location, safe construction, and the right response. So we can see that the government is doing a lot of things when it comes to the big one. So René, that's the immediate response. First, we don't need to kill people because of the construction. And then location-wise? Location-wise. And then, what's the government doing? It's like the next response, which is to cope with the difficulties that these victims go through. So we need to imagine further because you're just an individual. What happens to Manila? Metro Manila. What's the government doing? Yes. Okay. So to respond to that, you should take a picture in your head if you took a snapshot right after the earthquake. What happened to Manila? You should have an imagination. So what can we see? For example, hundreds of buildings have been damaged and potential victims. Potential victims, 48,000 can be killed. And when it comes to injuries, a lot of them will be hit, 100,000. It hurts. So we're going to match the capability of the hospital outside of Metro Manila to help. And the search and rescue is predefined on who are the forces, local government from different regions outside of Metro Manila and Region 3 and Region 4A. Do we have enough hospitals? Do we have enough volunteers? Yes. So it means that we need to have the people in the community who will treat the injuries so that those who don't go to the hospital will go to the hospital. Volunteers are very important. Yes. We need to organize medical doctors and nurses and other medical personnel. We need to organize the engineer architect, organize the search and rescue groups not only in the impact zone, but also outside. And of course, we also need to organize other countries. Even the civil military operation of military units in different countries in the Pacific and the search and rescue groups under the auspices of UN, Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, we have drills. Not only the draft government hold, but also how to rescue, how to talk to different groups in different countries, what are the signage they are going to do so that they won't be able to double the entry into the houses. So we have a lot of drills that we are doing. But one very important drill is to drill the people in their houses. That's right. We learned a lot there. A lot has happened, but not only in terms of relief, relief operations. Good lesson learned on that. But there are reports that some of the residents didn't want to leave their homes. They locked themselves in. And the others, clearly, the culture and religion has a huge impact on the survival of people. So, there is a science in the scientific approach. So this is really one area, Benji, I think, where historians, culture experts, social scientists, as well as the natural scientists and engineers have to work together with civil society to save lives and to well prevent these kinds of disasters. I really want to ask you about the tsunami. Because the damage caused by water, is it the same? Is it the same in the fall of the concrete? So how does one prepare for a tsunami that is really the result of an earthquake in the oceans? I recall in Phuket, what happened there, the survivors came to the top of the hill to the highest point of the mountain and they remembered this from their legends, again from their oral history that happened hundreds of years ago and the survivors came to the top of the hill or the top of the mountain. So, do we have that kind of initiative in the West Sea? Yes. When it comes to the tsunami, in the Philippines, we will be operating in the earthquake, 90 destructive earthquakes in the past 400 years. When it comes to the tsunami, we had 40 tsunami events in the past 400 years. Now, the two things we use when we look at the tsunami, one would be the instrumental monitoring and the second is the natural observation. Now, the problem with the instrumental monitoring is that when the tsunami comes near the epicenter of Lindol, the tsunami is 2 to 5 minutes up to 15 minutes. So, it's too much to click. So, we need to remember the natural observations and the three words should be remembered. Shake, drop, and roar. Shake, Lindol. Drop, drop the water. And then, when the water comes back, you will hear the sound or roar. You can't just see the water but if the water doesn't come back in about 10 hours, it's just a low tide. Because we need to look at the natural observations of the earthquake, drop of water and roar. So, we have a lot to use for this. There was a tsunami of 5 meters and no one died. So, the first liners are the fisher folks. Select groups that we should train. Fishermen, when they are on the beach, they are going to the bank but when they are in the water, they are going to the deep part of the sea so that they won't be affected by the tsunami. They will be safe in the middle of the sea. So, our show is good and we have a lot to do to guide our fellow countrymen. But on the ground, the early warning device, we said that our mobile phones are already there. So, is that included in our early warning devices and training? Do we have frontline groups that we train to relay warnings to the rest of the community? Okay. When it comes to earthquake, you don't have any warning. Because when you have an earthquake, there is no prediction. So, what will happen is that after an earthquake, you need to know how strong the intensity of the wind that happened. So, what the DOSD-FIVOX does is that we make software based on the impact of the earthquake and based on the magnitude the local government can estimate the intensity of their places and potential damage to focus on the response. When it comes to the intensity information, that can be shared rapidly with the SMS. But when it comes to the tsunami, there should be a lot of combinations. Because we have a lot of women in places even in the shoreline on the telephone. So, when it comes to that, what we do there is a natural observation because it is sure that they will see the wave of water when it comes to the storm. So, they have a prepared evacuation plan to go to high places along with the program. Second, it is possible to give a warning or at least to give the information through Twitter and Facebook. It is just fast. This would imply that people should know what the tsunami is, what the warning system means so that when they read the SMS, they will not ask what it means. So, all of the warning systems aside from technology, you have social preparation for them to understand what the message is. When we have a big disaster like Big One. Because we can see that a lot of communications are on the cellular phone network. Is there a scenario like Big One here in Metro Manila? Is our cellular phone network reliable? Good question. Where are you looking at? Our cell phone has a signal that our cell phone is not available. Especially when it is not available on the cellular phone, it is temporarily stopped. We should think of ways to give information. We will go back to the broadcast radio. Broadcast radio. Or in our system that we are using Japan's communication system. We should develop the warning net via satellite directly on the cell phone. You don't need a tower. So, there is a technology that can be developed. But again, of course, there is technology but not all have receivers. So, there must be community-based communication. We teach in the mountains of Panyare. There are kalembangs in the mountains of Panyare. It is very important. But it is good in our research in UP, there are ways to work on the connectivity. There are other ways to improve our connectivity. It is important that the DOST is a champion. Because that connectivity is fundamental to all the initiatives and programs very important connectivity. In the past, in the DOST, it was transferred to the DICT. But we don't stop because we in the DOST, in FIVOX we, for example, in FIVOX, we are very reliant on the satellite. Because we are archipelagic. But if our internet infrastructure is good, there will be more stations that will improve. Because it is very hopeful. And the ODAS, the outdoor antenna system, needs to be complemented by the indoor antenna system. Rene, I wanted to ask you about the new research that we are doing to monitor earthquakes, the science of seismology. You said seismometers are called that. It will not really detect the earthquake in the epicenter. It will detect it. But sometimes, the distance from where the earthquake is is censored. It will be overwhelmed. I also read that in Chile, there are scientists who made models. A computer model, maybe it is not accurate, but the quick response or the speed is considered better than the accuracy. So it is a bit of a big data science. They have big data, they have a database, and when there is an event that will happen, they match it with the data. So are we doing it? Yes, we have been doing it for a long time. That's what I am talking about with software. We trained the local government. We have a rapid earthquake damage assessment system. You can use the system in two ways. One is to model the earthquake that can happen and see the hazards and the effect. That's the scenario. The other one is when there is an event, the intensity is high. You can also run that. Speed and intensity. What we have done is we have trained local governments. We have trained state universities and colleges for them to help the local government. We have trained D.O.S.T. because we are trying to bring down the science in the region. That's right. Regional. And your hub has the meeting sucks. And what we need is exposed elements that can cause damage. We have a crowd sourced using LGUs. What are the data we need to estimate the impact? Do you have a model in the region or LGUs that makes everything right? Crowd sourcing or preparedness? I don't know if there is a model, but I know that several cities in Metro Manila, we have trained and they populate their database. That database, I call it exposure database. We don't really have a national exposure database of Philippines. That's the search of every country. That's it. If there is any kind of disaster before and after, can you estimate how much potential it can affect? After the disaster, can you say that this is the problem, this is the cost of damage. It can also be in agriculture. We have to build that so that we can make the information more accurate and transactions more transparent. I want to ask you about the new program of the DOST that was recently approved. This is the space program that is low and not too high in the atmosphere. That's right. I know that it's approved by the current administration primarily to deal with disasters and change. Is that technology sensitive enough to detect, for example, fault movements so that the seismometers don't just detect it from a distance there are limitations on seismometers. Will that get GPS or something like that? In many areas of the earthquake, the limitations on the small earthquake were also overcome. They developed a more sensitive instrument and the magnitude of the earthquake can be recorded. We have 10 in the Philippines. That's what happened in Japan when they underestimated the magnitude. We have now 10 of that to address that. To monitor fault movements, you have an incitement in the ground and in the space. We have installed many GPS stations that we occupy on these monitors. Here in West Valley Fault, we have it. When it comes to space, we acquire data and using interferometry, we can determine if the ground is moving horizontally or up and down. That's not just a volcano. This space initiative of DOST, we will launch another satellite by 2018 from above. We hope that with some of these sensors, we can do interferometry. Our main use is before the disaster or after monitoring what is happening in the environment, in our forest, in our agriculture. It's impressive and it's so comforting to know that our initiatives are people-centered or human-centered. Of course, in anything we do, we always think of the rest of nature. I'm so curious about the earthquakes and tsunamis. There is also devastation and damage to the rest of nature. Not just humans. Maybe next time we will also talk about the bench. At this point, we have a lot to talk about that we hope stimulated the interest and disaster imagination of our citizens here and elsewhere in the world. Thank you so much. Dr. Rene Solidum, you are admirable in FIVOX and DOST. Here at UP Bench, we are fully supportive of all the efforts of the national government. As far as saving lives due to disasters. We have a lot of partnerships. FIVOX, maybe in the next programs, your other guests are our partners. No, we learn a lot from Japan and earthquake prone U.S. Italy Thank you so much everyone for staying with us in this science innovation series featuring the big one. Bye for now.