 trading hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, your humble, lovable, and squeezibly soft host. As always, we'd like to come to you at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Yeah, it sounded awful weak today. We've got to go back here and look at my options, see if this thing, every time you touch something, yeah, that's that right. Every time I touch something, I'll put on a new monitor, which I did last night. Everything seems to change a bit. You never know. Anyway, what do we have going on today? Well, of course, the market's up. It's, is that right? Go top the monitor up 31 points on the S&P cash. And volume was kind of light early in the day. It is a Friday, 3.8 billion shares, not a lot of juice, but again, this is where after you trade several years, you know that once you get past the first handful of days in December, the volume discontinues to decrease. And there's an old saying, don't be short the quiet market. And maybe today is a good example why I've had about, I'm gonna say 20 plus emails. I'll have to go back and count them. In the last, well, since before this morning, from midday yesterday to this morning about what stocks to short. And guess I wasn't making it plain that I think that market's going higher through the end of the year. I think I've said that several times this week, maybe not everybody's catching the show, but anytime I get everybody believing that they need to be shorting this market, that generally is a bad thing. It's kind of the same thing when time gets all the calls about going long gold. That's generally like at a top. I get a lot of emails about the calls asking about when to short stuff. Generally a good indication the market's gonna go a little bit higher before it goes lower. So I was clear. I don't think I was clear. Apparently I wasn't clear because everybody keeps asking me which stocks to short. I don't know what was wrong. I'm gonna say it plainly here, things can change. But my guess is that we're gonna kind of, that today was probably the last big day up at a 1%. We're probably gonna have a lot of three tenths, half a percent kind of nickel and diming up to the end of the year. Now options, I had a hard time thinking that options were telling the truth at 3,200 for expiration on the 20th. But we're only 52 points away from it on the S&P cash. It's a lot closer than I thought. The only thing we have to really derail the market between now and Christmas it looks like would be the Fed deciding that it wants to go commit suicide on national TV next Wednesday. Other than that, I don't see a lot. I could get into the political stuff of it, which a lot of people email me about too. It's all theater. And no matter what everybody says, my guess is this all goes away, probably in the next couple of weeks. And we won't hear any more about it and that will be the end of it. And then we'll get right back into politicking for the election in the end of, almost end of 2020. But my guess is this all just goes away. Generally when you start seeing a lot of people make stuff up as they have in the last three days, it's just literally insane reporting that doesn't have any kind of actual reporter checking anything. One guy's gonna sue, probably gonna win on an article on CNN who said he was somewhere else when all you had to do was go to YouTube and their own reporting to see him somewhere completely different. It didn't take any effort. I could have done it in two minutes. A reporter should have done it. They won't offer a retraction. It's just silly season now. And I, like I said, my belief is this is all, at least the political cloud is all going away between now and Christmas. And then we'll move on to something else that will be invented or politicians are always coming up with some reason to try to scare the public with. But things are fairly good. You couldn't ask for a better jobs report than this morning. I know a lot of people that would rather curse the dark than light a candle. In fact, I was at lunch and somebody said something about the jobs report, why I was standing in line and this guy is screaming saying that the real unemployment rate is like 20%. And I'm thinking, okay, let's say that the government's lying a little bit. Maybe it's not three, maybe it's 5%. But my guess is it's not 20%. I, reality is tough. And I think that what we're gonna get is a couple of weeks where everybody's gonna calm down over Christmas. They're gonna see, well, earnings weren't that bad, jobs are good, earnings growth a little bit, not too much, about three-tenths of a percent. I'm trying to find out where, now, meteor hits, 9-11, you can always have those things. I just don't know, if you're forecasting, you can't forecast those things. But as a forecaster, all I can say is that more than likely, since we don't know the future, more than likely, we're gonna see lighter volume. As that volume becomes lighter, it will force people that are short to cover, that then makes people that are short have to cover more because they maybe, they were gotten a little bit better. And generally because it's so small, three-tenths, half a percent a day in the indexes, it just never really, it kind of sneaks up on them. But I'm never one of these guys that likes to get short when everybody else is talking about shorting. I do believe that the old saying of sell them why they're yelling and buy them why they're crying is actually the way you need to do it. At least if you're trading, if you bought something for some long time deal, you know you got it. I don't understand though, the idea that when everybody's screaming about it, man, especially like what Tom gets all the gold calls, you know it's the top. When no one wants to talk about it, gold probably has a fairly good bottom. So the sentiment, the amount of people talking tends to do it for me, but I don't think there's a lot more to say about it. Light volume, but it's gonna be that way through probably the end of the year. We're gonna have a little bit of volume after the Fed next Wednesday. And then I think that's it. It's just gonna be slow, frog boiling hire a little bit. I'm not looking for the, you know, no 3,500 predictions here, just a little higher every day. Just a little higher. We'll be back in a minute. 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Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. And we're back, take a quick look. Still up 30 points on the S&P cash. Dow's up 324 and Azdex up 85. Russell's up 18. And again, had some emails. I'm just saying that seasonality is very tough to get through. Okay, Dave, you're the true master of calling tops and bottoms. What do you see in reading the tape? It's seasonality. I think that you can, if you wanna put a lot into what goes on, now, I don't think you can. Again, you've gotten to the end of the year. If you haven't sold by now, are you gonna sell? I don't think so. You need a real impotence if you're long to sell before next year. There is a lot like 1999 where people just waited until 2000 to sell, but there was a huge tax change. We still may get that, a lot of people changing. We certainly have a lot of sector rotation going on, but to me, by February, we're gonna have Apple pushing 5G phones. That's probably gonna hold up the tech sector for a little bit. Like I said, we're gonna have to have something come out of the blue that we do not see today, or at least I don't see today. And of course, it matters when it matters. You can have bad news, a great deal, the market ignores it, and then eventually, the market doesn't ignore bad news anymore. It all goes down on bad news. But right now, fairly decent news, and if the market can't go down on Thursday morning, when everybody said the end is nigh politically, that's telling you something. It's telling you that the market is probably right, and the people that are yelling and screaming the end of the world are probably wrong. So just a thought, the market is almost always right. People are almost, well, they can be wrong. Let me put it that way. So do what you want to. I just don't see, I could say to a lot of people, since I'm getting a lot of emails on the subject, you don't have, if you don't can't be long, which I can understand. No position is a position. If you just can't stand it, if you can't sleep, it's not worth it. But I don't see the point of being short right now. I'll just say that again, since I'm getting so many emails on the subject, of course, you can always email me at pathtfnn.com. Now, I had a bunch of questions, which we're gonna take a look at after I did my little deal earlier on a company, a tech company, someone asked me to explain a little bit more about machine learning and why NVIDIA cards are kind of necessary. It's, you know, you don't have a lot of volume in these things here. NVIDIA may, we talked about it a little bit, NVIDIA, AMD, these companies are really kind of getting extremely competitive with each other, cutting prices for Christmas. So, you know, it is a market of stocks, not really a stock market. So I could see some weakness in some of these. The SMH's though, actually had a fairly decent washout and I'm kind of bounced around in this thing. But, you know, you've had a couple of very good reversal signals, you know, let me zoom in on this one. This goes back to the 23rd of October. You had kind of a nice abandoned baby down here, the pop the next day, and then the market just continued going higher in the semis. I was wrong on that part of it. Now we've got kind of the same thing just a few days ago. You had this huge gap down on the third and what did it do the next day? It filled the gap exactly and it's gone back up. So, I mean, those are fairly decent reversal signals. And of course, trying to buy it at 127.92 might have been tough. We were trying to get back into some long positions in the tech insider, which are doing fairly well today. But, you know, when you look at this, it's very tough to say that that is in a fairly decent reversal signal. You had a little bit more volume, but it was ignored the next day. And when that kind of reversal will tell you a great deal. Anyway, back to NVIDIA, N-V-D-A. You can sell, or at least NVIDIA pretty much, sells video cards for people playing games and machine learning. And a lot of the money they've made over the last few years has been in machine learning. I've told a story before, but in 20, I think it was 2010. They had some kind of PhD mathematician guy, think that, you know what, these video cards actually do processing that would be very good for scientific, certain scientific kind of problems. And when you really look at, if you, other than putting video out that you can hook to a monitor, the actual hardware that does the grinding, the engine inside all of these things is something that multiplies arrays. If you've ever seen somebody sort mail, there's a lot of boxes in the X and Y direction. And of course, they just put it in their own little cubby hole, but what these things actually do, the grunt part that actually makes video games perform the way they do, is able to make a lot of calculations, but fairly simple calculations. So what you wanna think about in NVIDIA cards for machine learning is that they can take what's made for the video and use it like having maybe 2,000, maybe 2,500, the new video card I'm getting from NVIDIA this next week will have the kind of the equivalent of 2,500 calculators. Now that would, in certain problems where you can calculate something that doesn't basically depend on something else, right? A lot of times, if you add things, you've gotta add this first and then add this second in the order, but in video games, it doesn't really matter which order you're trying to figure out what color and what brightness to set a particular pixel on the screen is, they work extremely well. NVIDIA calls these CUDA cores, there's actually a real meaning to CUDA, CUDA. But this guy in 2010 said, you know what? If I wrote this library, it would make excellent sense that I could use this for a lot of the other scientific math stuff that I'm doing. And that led to companies that were really kind of in educational institutions using some of those scientific libraries to parallel all the problems. Anyway, machine learning really started to come along in about 2012, a lot of these things just started to come together. But the way you should think about it is these just give you maybe not one massive kind of machine, but 2,500 in my case, 2,500 smaller machines, but for the problems they're working on, it's just perfect. So machine learning really depends on a lot of small calculations that don't depend on others. We'll be back after a minute. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. 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I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity. Sign up for your 30 day free trial to my daily newsletter market insights today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Well, go get them folks. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, your ultimate trading mastery system, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first of its kind program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Chart is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. And of course, I was trying to answer kind of why NVIDIA is so good on machine learning. They wrote this library, they were the first. AMD really hasn't ever come along with anything. It may be because of the way the hardware is built. No one's ever been able to actually say, but I don't know of anybody using AMD cards for it. Amazon, Intel, handful of other people have made products in this sector, at least the hardware, but nothing that comes close so far to the NVIDIA product. Now, NVIDIA has made a little kind of $100 board that it's selling. The most use that NVIDIA cards get is what's called learning and that is where you take all the data and you try to make your algorithm figure it out with machine learning. So you spend a lot of time and effort collecting data doing all this stuff and then you make a kind of a model or a formula. In fact, what machine learning really does is kind of it is a program that writes a program based on the input data. So in NVIDIA, what they've done is really spend a lot of time learning a lot of stuff that the post office needs like reading envelopes and letters and that kind of stuff. That's where you have to use the very expensive boards. They've made this $100 board that will run a lot of the stuff that post office uses and they're gonna be replacing, they've got a big contract to replace all that stuff. So NVIDIA is kind of looking at this as a two-edged business and that is, in fact, that's the word that they use, the edge. And that's where the kind of the word, the rubber meets the road. There's a lot of stuff where you need to have a computer scientist or a data scientist and a computer programmer and some other people figure it all out. But once you figure it out, like how people write all that stuff, it doesn't take near the kind of horsepower to actually implement it. And they call those kind of edge applications and that would be spend a lot of time figuring out how everybody writes letters and numbers, excuse me, and letters and addresses. You get that all done, but then you can implement it in less expensive hardware. So NVIDIA's got this nice contract with post office, but I guess if I wanna sum it up, if you can break your problem down and do it where it's not based on everything that comes before it, machine learning with NVIDIA cards makes parallelizing, i.e. being able to do all the different stuff at the same time instead of waiting until something's done to do the next operation. That's kind of like sequential, but if you can parallelize it, you can parallelize it. You can actually make it quick. I probably spent too much time on this, but I did wanna get to this part of it. And again, it's a big business and a big part of both AMD and NVIDIA. I mean the video card part of it, AMD's more on it. Now AMD's made a lot of good hay and I was kind of thinking that it would be very problematic for AMD to continue on. I just couldn't see what Intel was doing, but we'll talk about Intel and what happened last week with Tom O'Brien today at 3.30. But I joke a lot about dropping the Chalupa a lot of times you just don't do something and you miss the boat. Sometimes you just do something horribly wrong and we'll talk about what Intel did that was horribly wrong to stick a thumb in the eyes of some people that they shouldn't have last week that is gonna probably carry on for a while. No real, I guess real belief. I have not been very happy with Intel since its new CEO and I continue to think this thing's probably trapped between 50 bucks and 60 bucks for a while but it may even have a tougher time next year. We'll discuss that next hour with Tom O'Brien. Okay, questions, questions, questions on Amazon. Again, you can email me at path at tfnn.com. Okay. Again, ever since the earnings call came out on Amazon I don't think anything's changed and that is that they're gonna continue to spend a lot of money. The other side of it is the lack of growth in these big web services companies. You do have a kind of a continuing trend here of higher lows in Amazon. I don't think that breaks before Christmas but at the same time it's kind of hard for me to say that they didn't have a good, or won't have a good Christmas at least in the retail space. But again, retail margins, five to 10% for Amazon. The web services business about 50% margins and I think for what most people on Wall Street are gonna look at, it's that web services part of the business that they're really interested in. Okay, question about Microsoft. Again, Microsoft's been a little bit better than the rest. They're not completely stuck on web services for high margin products. They're still making a lot of that but I think they've done a lot better in the last, I'm gonna say six months to nine months from taking a lot of people that would normally put their software on something like Amazon web services and move it to Microsoft. A lot of this has been making their operating system and some of the other software available, open source and free of charge. They charge more for like tool and tooling to write software for big groups but if you're an individual like me, I'm gonna think if there's anything I had to buy for Microsoft in the last few years, there were years where I would buy $2,500 subscription to write software for their tooling. I haven't had to do that since 2015. So again, big outfits, they'll buy a lot of specialized software and tooling for working in groups and that's really where Microsoft's making its big money. If you're a company that has 10,000 employees, more than likely you're probably using Microsoft stuff and you're probably not using Linux and you're probably not using Amazon web services, you're probably working on that kind of stuff in Microsoft. Now the question came, is this a double repo pattern? And the answer is it's set up like one, what you now have to have is a fairly decent close below the three by three. My guess is that you do not get it short of again, some kind of cataclysmic unthinkable event like a 9-11 or a war starting or something else that no one else has called and told me about. That's about it. We'll be back in a, yeah, we'll talk about that when we come back, but yeah, Intel hasn't been able to do much yet or as Nor has it empty, we'll be back. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunities zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. 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And then of course, everybody went to having LCD screens. There's really kind of the next wave coming and it really hit over the last, I'm gonna say seven to 10 days. We'll talk to Tom or Brian about that, but monitors, they be changing yet again. Not so much that you would look at, but basically in their capability. At least for computers, but you go to Walmart or Target. Can you even find a 1080 HD monitor? I think I saw one, maybe one at both places, but they're all at least 2K monitors if not 4K monitors now. I didn't see anything. I was in there, it was on Friday night or Saturday night waiting to see a movie and there was a target right across the street. So I walked over the target, got a thing, wandered through there. They didn't have hardly anything, but that's kind of those televisions are all kind of low margin things, but the real broad reason I'll be bringing that up is AMD and Nvidia because again, for these new kind of monitors, you need new video cards. But we'll talk more about that next hour. Of course, I got some more emails coming in and a question about what I suspect we're going to see in the VIX. I think either, like I said, unless the Fed decides to do something wild, it's very tough for me to see the VIX going above maybe 16 before the end of the year. We'd need some kind of really huge surprise. At 18 is actually where you start seeing some real big movements in the market. But right now I suspect that you could see with lighter volume and lighter volatility throughout the end of the year. And I think the VIX could pull back to 12 or under by the end of the year. So there's not that much room under what we're doing now but I don't think that there's a compelling case to think that the VIX is going to go up. I wrote to somebody about the transportation index and I said that it made a very good looking low in the market. One gap down and of course it moved back up. But that huge rollout to 187.97 on December 3rd was actually a washout in the market. And one of the reasons I was able to go long, let's go ahead and get this this week, is I saw a lot of these sectors having a washout. I think the IYT was one of them. So let me see if I can't get this up and where you can see it. Where is it at? I got 20 or 30 of them. So it takes me a couple of seconds to find it. There it is. Dow transports, okay. Let's get this over here. Now where's it at? Okay, there we go. I had to generate it. My sector oscillators that I put in the market every day give you a good indication when the stocks are massively oversold. And you were getting, this is generally the way it works. We've got the IYT up at the top and my sector oscillators at the bottom. Normally when you get down to the low, that's about it. But we are already seeing pretty much a washout on the third in the IYT. And it wasn't much different than that with the SMHs. So let's take a look at it. Basically you just kind of get to the low, give it a couple of two, three, four days and that's when on Tuesday I was saying that you are more than likely gonna have a fairly decent low into the market because I think it was that SMHs. There we go. Let's go ahead and pull this up too. Pretty much the same thing. And hard highs are kind of hard this year to get right. But with this tool that I've developed with the help, a little bit of help with Basil. So I wanna thank him for taking a look at it and giving me a lot of feedback at this. Once you get to these lows, like I'm putting my mouse over it now, in fact, let's zoom in here. But you get down to these lows and this thing is about as far as it can get down in these, you're gonna probably have a fairly decent bounce if not a medium to long-term low in the market and by long-term I mean like two months. So generally you get the wash out. That is everybody that's gonna sell is selling. You also get everybody that wants to go short the market. Another good sign. And then the market just goes higher. And does it do it all the time? No, but when I get a market that does that and I also get my sector oscillator to say that this thing is every single stock is on a sell in that sector. It is a generally fairly decent time to actually buy. And you may miss it by a day. I bought one stock and I was like a day early on it. But you know what, everything's fine today. So, but I knew on Tuesday that I was pretty much within about a 24 hour range a day that we were gonna have that major low in it. And this has worked for 20 years. I've gone back with the data. And again, like I said earlier in the show, buy them while they're crying, sell them while they're yelling. But that's it. Okay, what else do we have here? When you go to the movie theater unless it's a huge auditory you're probably looking at True K picture. Okay. Okay, we're still flat. Well, no, excuse me. It's still flat. We're still at 30 points higher on the S&P cash. Dow's up, we update this just to make sure. Yeah, up 338 points on the Dow. Nasdaq's up 89 and Russell's up 19. So we had another question out here on oil. Let's take a quick look at Gush. And of course that split just recently. Oh, we'll be back in a minute. But I wanted to get this in before the end of the day. We do have the Baker Hughes numbers out for a crude. And they continue to be rather bullish for oil. We'll get back to those in a minute. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastery Probability. 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Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. Didn't want to get into crude just a little bit. We normally bring up the Baker Hughes numbers, rig counts, which is probably the best way to figure out what's going on in that because they're not putting up rigs or turning them on unless they think they can turn a profit. They may run them a little bit longer at a loss thinking that the market will turn around for them. And eventually they'll close down the ones that aren't making the money. But today we got the Baker Hughes rig count that's down three in the United States to 799. That's off about 1,000 from about 16 months ago. They continue to shut down ones that don't produce much. It seems like the economies to scale are really getting to U.S. oil rigs. Canada a little bit different. They're up 12 to 138, so about a 10% bounce in that. Canada's been very aggressive at putting up new wells along for the pipelines that are coming down through the United States has offered them a way to get a lot of that oil market at a price that they wouldn't have been able to do before. So even though we have a little bit of a weakness in the rig count in the U.S., minus three, right, 799 to Canada's plus 12 to 138, as long as we're seeing those numbers kind of come around, probably Canada's, they don't have, they've got good producing wells, but probably not a thing like we have down here in the United States, but still adds to it. But kind of net net down in the U.S. vastly higher in Canada, and that's generally in Canada. This is where you're starting to see the weakness as they shut down a lot of them because of the weather. We may get that in the next couple of weeks. And that may, if we get a few of those shut down in Canada, that may add a little bit more oomph to what's going on in the crude market here in the U.S. In the meantime, so when you cannot, when you have to, we will see you here Monday, same bat channel, same bat time, and we'll see you in about 30 minutes with Tom O'Brien. We'll be talking technology.