 We'd like to begin this program and get this started for real and I want to say thank you to all of you for coming This is the eighth Program that we've done jointly with Jettro Jettro has been a pioneer in keeping open this These economic channels through the years. I think many ways it was Jettro's consistent Presence that led us to this very important new space Where we have the Trans-Pacific Partnership now is the positive agenda in both of our countries This this doesn't mean that it's smooth sailing from here I think there's gonna be a lot of hard work, but we know that we're on a path towards something very large and very important And I would like to say congratulations and thank you to our Jettro friends for having brought this so far And we're going to explore these issues in some depth today It's going to be a full day and we look forward to having all of you as active participants in it But this morning, we're very fortunate that senator Cardin is able to join us I will I'll give you an advance warning He has to depart here at 9 30 because there's a hearing that begins at 10 o'clock that he'll be chairing senator Cardin is Has a long and rich history in public service Was first elected to the Senate he'd been in the House of Representatives first elected to the Senate in 2006 and was just reelected quite handsomely in the last election And it reflects the very strong esteem that he's held in both by his constituents in the state of Maryland But also by his colleagues in the Senate He is genuinely one of the rising leaders that's reshaping the Senate and we're glad for that he has taken responsibilities for the Asia Committee subcommittee and that's a very important thing He's going to be traveling soon to Asia and hopefully Renitting the parliamentary exchanges that at one point were really the foundation of our relations with each other he's a noted leader and a welcome leader on these very important issues at a time when both of our countries need to start defining an Agenda of economic integration. That's positive and prosperous for everyone in the region So would you please with your applause? Thank and welcome senator Ben Bring that down a little bit there. Let me thank John Hammery for that Leadership that you provide here at CSIS and thank Jettro for its sponsorship of this forum John is well known on Capitol Hill as you know, he's a former deputy secretary of defense and a Harvard Divinity graduate. I'm not sure how the two of those go together But we didn't like to challenge his budget presentations when he was before Congress in those days Fear that the Almighty might take it out on us So but it's great to be here and I thank you all for this this topic this seminar today Because I think it is critically important to talk about the Asia-Pacific economic integration in the US-Japan Relations and as John pointed out, I'm honored to be the chair of the subcommittee for East Asia and the Pacific particularly at this time and That's why I think this seminar is particularly important as The Obama administration is implementing their rebalanced Asia policy Which I think is critically important to the United States and I think to the entire security of the Asian region When you look at the importance of Asia to the United States and to the world it's one-fourth of the global GDP in the next five years when we look at the economic growth outside of the United States It represents 50% of the growth outside of the United States the world's most prosperous and populist democracies as well as the world's most authoritarian regimes So it presents a real challenge for a US policy We are of course now confronted with a commitment. We have for nuclear Free Korea Peninsula and the challenge is presented by North Korea We have the challenges presented on our Environmental agenda or on climate change Those of us in the United States have recently experienced the wrath the weather Knowing full well that we have a commitment to work with Asia on dealing with environmental issues But clearly in the headlines most recently has been the challenges of North Korea And how do we deal with those challenges and of course China's reaction to America's rebalancing to Asia is interesting that they are somewhat concerned about the the troop movements that have been Suggested in that region, but on the other hand I think they share our concern about the security on the Korean Peninsula and they certainly are a major competitor of the United States economically which can be a very healthy situation for both countries When we look at Japan Japan is key To the US rebalancing in Asia. There's no question about that I know Prime Minister Abe when he was here three months ago before you declared that Japan is back and Secretary Clinton said Japan is the cornerstone to our engagement in the Asia Pacific and I agree with the former Secretary of State US Japan Relations are strong two of the world's three largest economies US second largest source of imports Japan's second largest source of foreign direct investment Japan's second largest foreign holder of US treasuries I'm not good on the list goes on and on and on about how important Japan is To the United States and how important United States is to Japan So economic integration must be part of a broader agenda and that's one point I want to bring up. Let me tell you a little bit about myself. I am the Senate chair now the full chair of the US Helsinki Commission. I've spent a good deal of my time in Congress working on human rights issues in Europe and Central Asia and to me the security agenda represented by the Organization for security in cooperation in Europe is a model for the world and that is you can't have Economic security unless you have good governance and human rights respect and you can have the strongest military in the world You're not going to be a secure nation unless you deal with the human rights of your citizens and the economic prosperity of your citizens Look at President Mubarak in Egypt and what his security meant for him Without the security of human rights and economic growth North Korea cannot survive without With the way that it is dealing with the economic growth of its citizens and the human rights of its citizens So that when you look at an economic integration, you need to look at it in context to a security agenda, which includes good governance and also includes How a country respects the rights of its own citizens when you look at the Asia Region, how can you have economic growth if you don't deal with the maritime trade issues and the maritime security issues? And when you look at trading partners, how can they work under the threat of a nuclear in North Korea? And what is the long-term stability of countries in Asia that they can't deal with the good governance issues that is? Problematic and so many of the Asian countries that is why the subcommittee that I chair Has had a scheduled two hearings already and we've had that we have conducted and we have a series more To deal with each of these issues the first hearing that we had in our subcommittee dealt with human rights transparency good governance and democracy We looked at Southeast Asia. We looked at China. We looked at the rights of opposition and the open Fair press the right to freedom of speech the right to assemble the right to challenge your government the right to free and fair elections And we will concentrate on those issues under my chairmanship of the subcommittee our second hearing dealt with security and defense issues and yes, we did look at North Korea and we are committed to the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Here's the challenge for the United States on the security and defense agenda We're gonna defend our friends We will we have treaties and we have obligations that we will adhere to Protect our friends in Asia, but we want to do this in a way without the use of active military Can we do this through a peaceful way? Well, we know that we have serious issues in Asia on maritime security And as I was talking before I came up here I need a roadmap to figure out all the different problems with the different countries A lot of them are our friends. They're having problems among themselves. We understand that But maritime security is critically important to economic Integration can't have any economic integration without maritime security So we we need to resolve these issues and the hearing that we had was very clear about that We need to do that in a peaceful manner, and there's some promise out there some opportunities of joint economic ventures between The stakeholders the countries where they can share the resources of the region in a way that can benefit Both countries that are claiming the territories involved So the United States have plans to be very active on the maritime issues Let me mention an area that is of tremendous interest to the Congress and that is cyber security We welcomed the informal working group that was set up between China and the United States on cyber security issues That represents I think a step forward, but I must tell you We know that there are cyber criminals out there That are victimizing America which sourced from Asia, and we are concerned about those cyber criminals There are cyber terrorists that are out there that want to cause Significant problems to America and yes, there are countries in Asia that sponsor cyber attacks against the United States And we take that very seriously So the cyber security issues will be paramount in our discussion So as we look at the issues of military security and Economic integration these issues will become very very important to the United States the third hearing that our subcommittee will hold will be on energy and the environment There's a lot we have in common here to talk about as to how we're going to deal with the challenges of the environment How we're going to deal with climate change Responsibly dealing with the problems of developing countries in the developed world how we're going to deal with food security issues That's a major priority for the Obama administration land rights. So there's a full agenda there We will then get to the Hearing that probably will be of most interest to the people that are in this room and that is the economic landscape and clearly the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP is our greatest promise for strengthening the economic ties between Asia and America the TPP represents an opportunity to expand dramatically economic activities in the region as well as Benefiting the specific countries involved. We will be looking at investment opportunity within Asia and looking at Gender equity issues women empowerment a huge priority for the Obama administration and for The subcommittee that I chair you'll be hearing a great deal about Gender equity issues the US Japan ties are strong And when you look at TPP to me the key here is how the United States and Japan provide the leadership Necessary to get TPP to the finish lines for 53 years. We've had a treaty of mutual cooperation and security the Japan has been a key partner of the United States and many of its global Commitments, we particularly appreciate its support on our policies on with Iran That's challenging for a country that is strapped energy-wise to be able to help the United States in supporting the isolation of the Iranian regime and of course we had the forward deployment of 49,000 US troops the closeness of our relationship, I think was tested on Okinawa and The fact that we were able to come up with the April agreement in such. I think Harmonious way showed that the United States and Japan both recognize the geographical changes that are taking place in Japan Recognizing that we had to redeploy some troops The the use of Guam in Hawaii provide that opportunity for us And we were able to I think work out a framework that will be beneficial to both countries and first and as you know The Fukushima disaster Which was horrible for Japan and the US response gained a great deal I think a public relations gain for the United States during that crisis, so we're in pretty good position right now Japan and the United States Close allies close friends to provide the leadership necessary to marshal the economic integration in Asia and that's what we will be doing with the Trans-Pacific partnership 11 participating states at least now they're 11 that number could change could grow could shrink We certainly hope that it will grow There has been a great deal progress between the United States and Japan on areas that have been Traditional barriers and trade between the two countries and dealing with the auto sector and dealing with agriculture And dealing with the service industries They're the hot-button areas that the United States and Japan need to resolve and it's a significant progress has been made on Each of those fronts. I'm very impressed by the political leadership in Japan in the manner in which they've handled TPP They're doing it openly and directly and before parliamentary elections That's more courage than I see sometimes in US politics so I applaud them in the the manner in which they are handling very openly the the need for Concessions to be made and markets to be opened and that's the purpose the purpose is to open markets not to protect markets for both All the participating countries. I will be visiting as John pointed out Japan later this month And we'll use that opportunity in an effort to try to advance the understanding between our two countries And the role that we have to play In advancing these economic agreements, and I will be spending some time with parliamentarians because I do believe that The exchanges between parliamentarians we understand politics and we understand what reality can be done And can help make this possible The challenge on TPP is you're dealing with countries from Australia to Vietnam from Malaysia to Peru That's not easy to figure out a trade agreement that fits all those Those issues and obviously there are many many Specific matters that need to be negotiated from intellectual property to government procurement and subsidies Individual ish industries from textiles to dairy to pharmaceutical and they differ by country And each one need to fit into an overall framework which makes it a challenge for the negotiators Now let me back up a little bit and let you know again about how I want to see this trade Bill move forward By advancing areas that have been difficult for us to make progress I think you all are aware that one of the priorities from the Democratic Party position In trade agreements has been to advance labor and environment and I will continue to push on the labor in an environmental front And I think with TPP there is good chance that the labor provisions are going to be pretty strong And we will also work on the environmental side to make sure that those countries comply with international standards, but I also will be Pushing for progress to be made in good governance in human rights For those of you who are familiar with my track record on human rights You will know that when Congress was challenged to pass the PNTR for Russia for its entry into the world trade organization That I offered an amendment to that bill that included the Minitski Act Sergey Minitski was a young attorney three years ago representing a US client Discovered the largest corruption scheme governmental corruption scheme in Russia and did what any lawyer should do He reported it to the authorities After all he looked at the Russia Constitution and law and it said this is illegal Take action protect my client protect our country And Sergey Minitski Was investigated by the same people who his charges were against he was arrested tortured denied medical care tortured again and died in prison People who perpetrated a crime against him were not held accountable in fact were promoted So the legislation that I introduced that was signed by President Obama Said that those who were responsible Can't convert their rubles into dollars and can't visit their properties here in the United States They can't get the fruits of their corruption at least in the United States Other countries are falling suit. I Mentioned that because it points out That we stand for something as a nation and yes, we want to do business with Russia We want to do business with the TPP countries, but they have a responsibility to meet international standards not US standards international standards for good governance and human rights and We will be pushing that and I understand this is a challenge when you look at the countries that are in the TPP countries that are very advanced on good governance and countries that are struggling I Will mention two of the Asian countries, but I can mention every country that has challenges in human rights including the United States on my dad But in Vietnam it continues to harass intimidate arrest and suppress bloggers and online activists Using article 88 that prohibits conducting propaganda against the state recently when Van Hai Sentenced to 12 years in prison Tom Fong Tang 10 years in prison Van Tang high four years in prison for blogging and by the way, my staff gave me a long list of Activists who are in prison in Vietnam today for doing nothing other than expressing their concerns about the governance of their country The set I could mention Malaysia and the problems that they're having that's a pretty advanced democracy and yet NGO freedom is is subject to Unreasonable restrictions and the opposition doesn't have all the rights that they need and there's countries in the Western Hemisphere that I could easily mention that are challenged by human rights that are TPP countries. My point is this Yes, economic integration is critically important by the passage of TPP Suit manufacturer and and shirt manufacturer located in my state and they're very concerned about rule of origin issues So fair for this senator will be talking about The the the provisions related to rule of origin now you multiply that times a hundred and you got to deal with each of these Concerns that will be expressed as we move forward Which brings me of course to a major issue and that is how do you get? TPP without TPA trade promotional authority fast track Look, I serve in the United States Senate By the way, it's really nice to be here and John I might see if I could stay all day rather than have to go back to what I'm sure is going to be the problems on the floor of the United States Senate But without fast track, how does any bill get off the floor of the United States Senate is complicated as a trade bill? The answer is Unlikely yeah, the administration will need to have fast track authority in order to be able to successfully complete The ratification of these agreements Well now we have an August 2013 about excuse me October 2013 deadline on negotiations. That's pretty ambitious How do you do that without? Trade promotional authority. I know it's a it's a challenge and we of course don't have a confirmed USTR yet I expect that will be shortly But without a trade representative that has the authority to negotiate It's also going to be difficult to see us meet these deadlines and then of course there's the scope that I've already mentioned labor environment human rights, so This will be a challenge, but it is extremely important to get to the finish line extremely important the US Interest is in is for us to succeed in full integration on the economic front with Asia Including the TPP. It's clearly in our economic interest to succeed Six decades ago those many people question whether the United States should be making the type of Investments in Japan and Korea that we made 60 years ago Those investments were in the US interest as we see today two strong allies and economic partners and Partners on so many fronts that help the United States and help our strategic interests well that type of Investment that type of economic integration needs to take place now throughout Asia and TPP offers us an opportunity to expand it to the Pacific and we should take advantage of that opportunity But it must be done in the right way, which brings me back to this forum The people that are in this room as I look around and see the type of leaders that are here I urge you to be mindful of the various issues involved in economic integration and let us figure out a Pragmatic but yet fair way to move forward to accomplish our mutual objectives That will advance the inch interest of the United States and the countries of Asia That's our goal that's what I plan to do as a chairman of the subcommittee and I can thank you all for your attention on this extremely important subject on I'm Mike Green from CSS on behalf of CSIS and everyone in the audience one. I want to thank Senator Cardin for for his leadership on Asia and for laying out Two important things everyone should know Leaders in the Senate are committed to moving this forward and there are a lot of issues That are gonna have to be dealt with and I thought this was one of the most Impressive and clear pictures of Your leadership you've testified before the Senate and we appreciate very much your expertise We're proud that you're a Marylander and We thank you for mentioning Marco Rubio because the two of us that have met frequently our staffs meet Daily to make sure that we maintain that strong bipartisan support for the policies of the United States in Asia and I expect that that will be you'll see that it continue during during this Congress trade promotional authority and fast track and vision a very close relationship between the Congress and The administration so it's it doesn't mean Team trade promotional authority doesn't mean that the White House Has the power to negotiate agreements and ignore Congress and then it's just an up-and-down vote in Congress That's what the law provides as I think you are aware trade actually Policy is actually the responsibility of the legislative branch not the executive branch We delegate that to the executive branch because we can't negotiate we need the executive branch to negotiate for us But we expect them to work with our concerns So at every part of the process there is required consultation and this consultation is more than just listening to our concerns The administration and whether it's Democrat or Republican administration has traditionally tried to follow The wisdom of the Congress in negotiating specific parts of the agreement We then have what's known as a non markup markup So we actually will mark up the legislation before the administration even submits it to us Which gives us a chance to change it not necessarily change the agreement But to work with the administration to make sure that the intentions of Congress are carried out in the agreement So there's a very close relationship here And that's why we feel very comfortable under trade promotional authority that Congress's views will be respected We acknowledge that you can't at the end of the day Take one part of a trade agreement out and isolate it because that's not how you negotiate you have to negotiate a Final agreement so It's something that ultimately will be passed We will give the authority to the administration to negotiate They they need to have that on a multilateral agreement sometimes you do a bilateral without a Fat trade promotional authority, but on a complicated agreement involving these 11 countries Ultimately the Congress will need to give authority to the administration Thank you. I see a question in the way back or our microphone good Could you briefly identify yourself and then we'd ask the questions to also be brief? Thanks. Sure Hi Joe Bates. I'm actually also a constituent and Well, we've planned that we're only recognizing Marylanders right now. We'll get to non-Marilynters soon. It's a conspiracy I Actually also had a question about TPA because what you're describing is actually radically different than how TPA has worked in the past and in reality TPA is not required to get a trade deal through as you saw during Columbia Korea and Panama So I'm not sure what you mean when you say it's necessary, and I'd really like a direct answer on this Why it's necessary. Yeah, because it's clearly not because we just got three trade deals without it I think it would be extremely difficult to get Negotiations done with 11 countries where they're sitting around a table negotiating back and forth and For the United States to say oh by the way, whatever we negotiate is subject to further negotiations by the Congress. I Just don't think you can Get that type of an agreement negotiated in a fair manner. I just don't think it will happen So I just take exception with you and in the three agreements you talked about there were no changes made by Congress So I'm not sure where you are referring to One those agreements Charles Quickly as a follow-up as your as you're my representative. It's your responsibility to be part and active in this Trade agreement, and you're delegating that authority, right? And that's my major concern whether you have a change at the end or not You giving up that authority is not why I sent you there We're gonna disagree on that. Okay, I understand I understand your position Look, I voted for and against trade agreements, and I'm gonna continue to exercise my independent judgment However, I don't believe that Congress can negotiate a trade agreement. I think the administration should negotiate a trade agreement I think that the administration must work with Congress as that agreement is negotiated and In a way Congress has a veto as that negotiation is going forward, and we've exercised that there are many provisions in trade agreements that are there or not there because of Congress in Part of the negotiations there is a very close relationship But to suggest that the end of the day that a trade agreement should be open to amendment And then you have to go back to the other 10 countries to try to get ratification of the change because of changes made in Congress To me that's not how a multinational trade agreement should be completed and that the administration should have that Responsibility Congress has a responsibility up or down. We don't have to approve it So if the administration doesn't follow our our lead We'll vote against it, and it's very possible that could happen Thank you. It's like a town hall meeting. It's great Charles Freeman up front. I Would say one other thing on trade Believe me I have voted against TPA and what I want to see is broad authority to the administration and TPA to be able to cover beyond Traditionally, you know traditionally we wanted to tariff negotiations, and then okay We understood there were non-tariff issues that the administration had to have authority We went through NAFTA and we couldn't get authority to deal directly with labor and environment, and that was a mistake We've now put labor and environment in the core agreements. That's an improvement. I want to see good governance there So I will be fighting that in the trade promotional authority the administration has that there's Expectation that they'll go beyond the traditional safe areas that the United States has negotiated Charles Freeman from PepsiCo. I want to thank Senator Cardin for all you do for the great state of Maryland Just don't you still can move into the state I move in I move out the the just a quick aside as a former negotiator You know For USTR we spent significantly more time with members of Congress than we actually do the The groups with whom we're negotiating so I feel quite confident that that members of Congress have that That input and and I just as a correction The three trade agreements that were passed were passed subject to a grandfather TPA So they were not separate and distinct, but I wanted speaking on behalf of the business community We have not been engaged particularly by the administration on either TPP Although we're starting to get interested or TPA and I guess from your standpoint What would you how would you advise us to be more engaged and more supportive to help both Congress get comfortable with TPA and TPP and and and push the thing forward It's an excellent point. It's You're right. We have not been visited and I don't know if that's good or bad I don't think there is much expectation that there's going to be early congressional action on trade Now I don't know the timing that the administration has on trying to complete The negotiations are sending up the trade promotion authority So and we don't have a USTR yet My guess is that that it will be that decision will be made shortly and the business community has to be actively engaged I just put on the other side and that is the labor community We've had trade agreements where labor has been divided. We've had trade agreements where later labor has been unified in opposition We need to have a very open process So before this gets in stone It'd be nice to know what needs to be in the agreement to get the type of support necessary to get this passed And that is part of the of the consultation and negotiating process I mentioned congressional roles. There's also sector roles as you know They have sector groups that work to make the textiles will be a very challenging issue and the rule of origin I mentioned it from Maryland, but it's beyond Maryland So that issue needs to be resolved between the industry labor and members at an early possible time So we don't go down a path that locks in Significant opposition to the bill making it difficult to pass that has to be done in dairy that has to be done in In autos there's so many different sectors that has to be done in and the sooner the administration engages The stakeholders the better My name is Glenn Fukushima. I'm with Center for American Progress I used to work at USTR back in the 80s on Japan and China and recently returned to Washington DC after working in Tokyo for 22 years Senator based on your comments. I infer that you are in support of the administration's Asia pivot or rebalance Yes, I've been a bit confused after coming back to Washington as to what exactly we could expect over the next four years on this because there Have been many speeches many articles that have appeared the economic aspects military aspects and so forth, but It I think there's some question certainly here in town But also in Asia is to what exactly we can expect how much Real engagement with Asia given all other things that are going around in the world and give limited resources so forth In financial terms and in personnel terms From from your perspective being in the Senate as one of the leaders working on East Asia What do you expect and what can we realistically expect in terms of the engagement of the United States and Asia? Beyond just TPP over the next four years. Thank you first. I think you'll find more Political time spent on Asia than we have in the past The president will be in Asia more than he has in the past He already has made a strong commitment to his own personal time in Asia You'll see by the budget that he submitted he submitted a larger increase in the Support for the Asian efforts than in other sectors of the country of the world So we're putting more resources whether it's USA ID whether it is diplomacy or whether it's military There has been an increased focus on strengthening our presence in in Asia We are working on new military Arrangements which has China somewhat concerned And those new military arrangements are meant to provide more security To our partners in Asia and again, we want to do this in a peaceful manner. So you'll see you'll see that I think you're gonna find just greater Amount of attention and politics and resources placed in Asia We will be strengthening our economic ties the TPP represents that it's just one part of that But I think you'll find a much closer economic Relationship between the United States and Asia as you know, America has focused more its own hemisphere in Europe We're now gonna be focusing more on Asia and I would expect more on Africa to tell you the truth I think that also will see a significant increase in US interest in Africa. So You'll see more exchanges. We already do a significant number of exchanges with students and business leaders I think you're gonna see those numbers increase dramatically in the next several years. So I think it's all of the above We also are looking at training more people more expertise in Asia. So it will affect our universities. It will affect Throughout our country to try to get a better literacy in America on Asia So I think all that's healthy and will reflect the reality that Asia is much more significant today than it was 50 years ago in world events senator, could we could I close by asking a Question about the future of TPP, which is hard enough. This makes it harder China is in a pack It's obviously not in TPP separate challenge for the United States and Will we need to deal with our bilateral with China probably more than dealing with a regional issue with China and Some of it deals with the currency issues. Some of it deals with intellectual property There will come a time that China Will recognize that they need to develop a greater internal capacity for innovation and creativity and That more open society will give them that opportunity. They have some fundamental Problems they're making progress. Don't get me wrong. They are making progress, but they still do not have a society that allows for the Innovation that they need in order to meet their future. That's a fundamental problem of the country and What our objective will be is to try to get China on a path That is a more open society is a reason why we had Normal trade relations with certain countries and not with others is the type of country that they are I understand We have normal trade relations with China today. They're a giant as far as the economy is concerned, but they still allow the Communist Party to dictate too much of their Economic activities that has to change in China So I think you're gonna find a concentration by the United States to continue China down a path of more openness a more open market certainly less currency manipulation less Much more protection for intellectual property much more personal freedom internet freedom, etc And when those when that progress is made it will also open up China to regional Agreements such as a TPP We really appreciate you joining us. We appreciate it. Thank you all very much. Thank you very much I'm not so many under I used to live in New Haven Connecticut long time ago 30 years ago. I look young That's Thank you, Mike for your kind interaction. Good morning ladies gentlemen. My name is Hiroyuki Shinge German and CEO of general I Let's express my sincere Gratitude to all of you here for joining us today Let me also extend my deepest appreciation to ambassadors U.S. government officials and the business leaders I would also like to thank Dr. Hamlet and Dr. Green as well as Their colleagues at the CSIS for their dedicated work Jettro has held this annual seminar here in Washington to see since 2004 and Today's seminar is a eighth in cooperation with DRCSIS As you are aware Japan has decided to take part in TPP negotiations Making the timing of this seminar most of species Japan's decision is significant in that its participation would expand the economic coverage of the TPP from the current 30% to 40% of the world's GDP Yesterday I met quite a few number of U.S. Business people here all of them welcomed Japan's decision. Yes Japan's participation increases the value Business value of the TPP provided a business opportunities However, I think it is also significant in other way Japan's participation in the TPP negotiations were not only strengths in the TPP But also stimulates other mega FTAs namely the EU Japan EPA TTIP. I have just learned how to call it and And I'll say These four will drive the development of future global rules of trade and investment Even the stagnation of WTO talks This world map Illustrates the four mega FTAs and four major economic powers supporting them. I Strongly feel they represent new era across the Pacific the Atlantic and Eurasia, so we have to change the title next year. I Think that to cover from the stagnant WTO around for the promotion of these small mega FTAs towards realizing liberalization of trade and investment is essential To achieve this goal, the US and Japan should take the lead This is my core message. I will explain why in detail This slide shows the schedule of recent negotiations for mega FTAs The negotiation in 2012 was centered on the TPP alone However in 2013 Two of FTAs our set and the EU Japan EPA have already started and Negotiations of all four mega FTAs will be in progress before summer This indicate that the trend towards mega FTAs has accelerated across the globe globe With this acceleration What form should economic integration in the Asia Pacific take in the future? I Think that in order to facilitate global liberalization trade and investment Establishment establishing advanced rules with an extensive economic Coverage will be required in this region a growth center in the world To achieve this goal, it is essential for us to create maintain and accelerate an environment across the world which could be described as global competition towards liberalization through regional immigration to realize an economic integration framework in the Asia Pacific region that TPP and our set will function as a dual wheels of the scheme TPP as an innovation function aiming at an advanced agreement suitable for the 21st century The outset as a function to improve the regional economy By including a lesser developed countries such as Myanmar Cambodia and Laos These two are mutually complimentary. They should inspire each other and play their respective roles. I Think you are already familiar was TPP itself here I would like to touch upon how other countries have responded to Japan's decision to participate in the negotiations China and Singapore for example have shown strong interests in this announcement in China Concerning a joint statement announced by the US and Japan on February 22nd in Washington the people's daily reported that America is bringing Japan to the negotiating table to deter China's influence and in Singapore. I'm not saying this is child people's standard daily report and in Singapore the government stated that Japan's participation would have great implication for the development of stability of the Asia Pacific region. It also claimed that the conclusion of both the TPP and our set will bring us closer to realizing the so-called FTAB Judging from the recent actions of other countries I believe Prime Minister Abe's decision regarding participation can be seen as a potential game-changer that we draw many more countries into the scheme Japan's participation can impact provide an impetus for Asian members such as Thailand and the Philippines to also join the negotiation on the TPP in the near future I'd be very grateful if our expert from China and Singapore then in this seminar could give us their perspectives on this issue Next I'd like to talk about the RCEP the other key to realizing the FTAB initiative together with the TPP the most the major feature of features of the RCEP is wide economic coverage and gross potential which distinguish this partnership from the present TPP the RCEP accounts for half of the global population or about 3.4 billion people while the TPP accounts for only about 12% or about 0.7 billion people To maintain its extensive economic coverage member countries in the RCEP are doing their best to set broader agendas The RCEP's aim to be been a spring tree demonstrates this perspective By applying the so-called accumulation rule, this is the year lose original so I have to get the approval by the senator The creation of the RCEP I would help our companies are in members countries are clear lose origin with great greater ease Thanks to this rule as well as the further liberalization of trade in services the RCEP would also benefit these companies by giving them more options in choosing procurement sites and improving their supply chains Because of this gradually progressive approach of the RCEP I've heard that in the United States This initiative is not necessarily considered as an important regional integration RCEP doesn't seem to be popular in in this in the United States, especially in this town. I Do not share this diagnosis. The RCEP will move slowly but steadily Well, when I was a boy My mother once told me here. Yuki. This is my first name You are not very quick, but you are determined slow and steady win the race This will be facilitated by the formation of the RCEM Necomica community by 2015 I think the RCEP will eventually become a very comprehensive Competitive initiative for regional economic integration again Which will be mutually complementary with the TPP Finally, I would attach upon the roles of the United States and Japan in promoting trade liberalization through mega FTAs Previously the US, the U, Canada and Japan had played a prominent role in Establishing global rules for trade and investment in the 20th century Other nations at the beginning of my speech In the 21st century with it's increasingly global supply chains, it will be the four MENA FTAs that will play this role In this new structure what I refer to as the maybe new called consisting of the US, the U Japan and China will assume major roles in promoting free trade as a core of these Four regional integrations The metrics in this slide describe the relationship of these countries and regions with each scheme Japan is involved in three of the four including the TPP The US and the U in two respectively and China in one Looking at the economic scales of each scheme and country which are also shown in the matrix Japan is well aware its Responsibility as a bridging partner and of how vital the role of the US and Japan is in this new framework In the beginning of my presentation, I Emphasized the need for a competition to us liberalization among various regional integration schemes however, if each of the four schemes Which together account for 80% of the global economy moves independently in Uncoordinated competition it may adversely impact global trade and investment How can we lead then to a coordinated competition? To accomplish this I'd like to propose a meeting of trade ministers or senior officials of major economic powers Including the US, DU, Japan and China responsible for establishing a potential global trade and investment rules Ministers will discuss what common elements those major FTAs have and how they can be Coordinated, of course the purpose of this meeting is not for negotiations But mainly for transparency and information sharing or some coordination if necessary Now I would touch upon our relationship with China The US and Japan will also play important roles in this regard. I think that Participation in the TPP could be like a second accession to the WTO for China In that it would provide great impetus for that internal transformation This is essential for China's sustainable economic growth The TPP focuses not only in removal of types, but also abolition of subsidies for state-owned enterprises enhancement of enhancement of rules for intellectual property rights and for government procurement These have been common issues for the US and Japan in doing business with China The US Japan have essential roles to play for the healthy economic growth of China Under new trade and investment rules as well as in the event it chooses to take part in the TPP I believe that the US Japan will sincerely Welcome China overcoming these hard rules and joining the TPP and China will reap great benefits in doing so Just as with Korea, there are concerns about the political tension Japan is facing in relation with China In spite of these difficulties, however, the three countries reached an agreement on starting a trilateral FTA last November in Cambodia In addition, the leaders of 16 countries also including Japan, China and Korea have agreed on the launch of negotiations for our SEP Moreover, specific negotiations are in progress both in the Japan, China, Korea, FTA and our SEP I'd like to highlight the fact that The agreements on launching the negotiation were concluded despite the political difficulty surrounding them According to media reports, the meeting of economic ministers from the three countries was realized thanks to a strong push by China When looking at the Japanese islands from Beijing, one can see also glimpse the United States, one can also glimpse the United States for a head over the Pacific Presumably, China made the decision because the focus of its case is on the United States rather than Japan in regard to the TPP China is very enthusiastic about promoting the RSEP on the Japan, China, Korea, trilateral FTA Lastly, I would like to emphasize again that the relationship between the U.S. and Japan which share common fundamental values such as democracy, free trade and the rule of law is essential for promoting trade and investment in the Asia Pacific region in order to maintain the best global partnership between the U.S. and Japan Communication between the two countries Strengthening mutual understanding, strengthening mutual confidence and continuous network building are vital Efforts like this have created our relationship trust as exhibited in the results of opinion polls in the slide 84.5% of Japanese appeal familiarity with the United States and 84% of Americans said they can trust Japan In the international community, where developing countries are now rising both the United States and Japan must now lead the way by superheading the establishment of advanced international rules Additionally, close cooperation between the both countries needs to be promoted in the real business world as well If we look at the auto sector as an example, which has been an issue in U.S.-Japan bilateral consultation on the TPP We'd better keep in mind the fact that Japanese affiliated auto manufacturers produce two-thirds of their branded cars in the United States and began export to other countries Thus, they contribute to the U.S. economy as well as job creation here We would of course be enthusiastic if U.S. companies took advantage of Japan as a gateway to Asia for the expansion of their business in the region This is all I have to say at this moment The experts following me will offer valuable insight concerning economic integration in the Asia Pacific region from more broad perspectives I hope for this seminar to be the most beneficial and meaningful experience for all of us Thank you very much Question and challenge and quiz are experts Then we'll have a lunch break and we've invited Assistant USGR Wendy Cutler to be our luncheon speaker We always put the USGR or US negotiator at the end so that you get a sense of the morning about how hard their job is and take a little pity on them And Wendy's terrific and looking here and make this presentation Actually, according to my personal opinion, I think that Mr. Lin should be the first speaker But I'd like to thank the arrangement made by the organizer It shows that they are very appreciating China's role in Asia Pacific region So this morning, I'd just like to talk about Asia Pacific integration issues and conflicts among TPP members Actually, in this region, I think that you know that facing this financial crisis and debt crisis Asia Pacific region already becomes more and more important for a global economic recovery I saw as global economic growth In this region personally, I think that the changing and shaping pattern gradually for integration in Asia Pacific region gradually happened Firstly, you can see that TPP already in progress Also experience also have maybe 15 rounds negotiation So that's why I listed, I regarded TPP as the first track in this region Of course, the United States shows its westward strategy and return to Asia strategy Meanwhile, Canada, Mexico and Japan Those big economic entities in the region also involved in shows that TPP is very attractive for the relative members in the region Of course, the second track is also very important, especially for China In Asia, you can see that last year China-Korea FTA negotiated maybe a few rounds already And the CJK FTA, although China and Japan now has a very, very bad political relationship But CJK FTA is still a kickoff, this is a very good signal Of course, you know that regarding RSIB Yesterday evening, I said that in the near future, maybe RSIB would be 10 plus 6 We cannot make sure in the future, we will formulate maybe 10 plus 6, 10 plus 5, or 10 plus 3 That will depend on the situation, maybe some of country, they cannot access to this type of integration process The third track I'd like to remind you is that last year in APAC meeting Environmental products at least, you know that 5, 54 environmental products Can enjoy zero tariff, that's a very important progress in the region That means APAC didn't don't die, maybe APAC is still alive Maybe in the future, you know that environmental products at least is a small seed Maybe in the future, this seed can grow very rapidly I hope that the products at least will be longer and longer Meanwhile, other types of products also will be involved in Lastly, Russia is implementing its eastward strategy And maybe Russia will be the potential at the new emerging track in this region Because Russia started to negotiate the bilateral FTA with Vietnam as well as New Zealand In the future, Russia has a very ambitious goal is that Russia will bring Kazakhstan As well as Belarus into Asia Pacific region And so, back to top TPP issues, I think that, of course, the United States is playing a leading role Because of high standard and wide range Actually, if you look at NAFTA, if you look at those bilateral FTA signed by US and other countries Environmental concerns, labor, standard concerns already expressed in early stage Actually, I chaired China-Paloo, China-Chile bilateral joint feasibility study As well as China-Pakistan When we negotiated FTA with Paloo, I found that Paloo side, as well as Chile side They required to talk about environmental issues as well as labor standard issues But at that time, you know that for Chinese side, we are just negotiating very traditional bilateral FTA Started from China-Paloo and China-Chile Also, Chinese side started considering how to integrate environmental issues as well as labor issues into FTA negotiation But I think that for United States, actually, you know that because you are very eager to promote TPP However, I'm afraid that you are ignoring the large economic gap and different national conditions of the members in the region Also, I think that you have to notice that there are some of conflicts With the interests of different members For Singapore, I think that because Singapore is a free port and very free economic entities That means large-scale free trade agreement is in line with Singapore's development interests Also, Singapore needs fine-tuning in this region I'd like to remind you that actually Singapore, I think that Singapore has a very long-term strategic consideration Because in 2005, Singapore is one of the initiative countries for TPP Certainly regarding Australia and New Zealand, you can see that of course these two countries are belonging to developed countries They are very willing to promote free trade agreements However, if you look at IPR issues, actually there is a disagreeing voice from Australia and New Zealand For example, between the United States and Australia Actually, Australia says that trips is enough for TPP Trips is enough for US, Australia, and FTA However, the United States says that we need to promote the trips plus So that's a contradiction between US and Australia Meanwhile, if you look at Vietnam and Malaysia I think that this is a very difficult problem You know that we often discuss why Vietnam can draw in TPP How can Vietnam to draw in TPP? That's my concerns, but I didn't get any answer Satisfied answer Because you know that in my mind 20 years ago, you know that a lot of Vietnam delegation came to China and to learn experiences of reform and opening up in China And also I had given my lecture to those Vietnam SOE issues in Vietnam is more difficult than that in China In China, a lot of SOEs already have been reformed Becomes a listed corporation in Chinese stock market and in United States market as well as in London But I don't know what situation in Vietnam I heard that SOE is dominating Vietnam economy And its reform still takes a long time Of course, you know regarding intellectual property protection issues Human rights at democracy issues I do believe that Vietnam they are facing with more and more difficulty Of course regarding blue prune Although it's an initial country for TPP However, you know that regarding Environmental protection, fisheries subsidies, labor issues, IPR issues Brunei already, you know, raised their requirements to the United States United States need to provide capacity building and subsidies to Brunei Chile and Peru may be better a little bit. However, regarding IPR issues Also, you know, there are some of you know concerns Of course, Canada at the beginning Deep reform in dairy products is poetry acts and other supply chain management policies That's the biggest concern from Canada side From Mexico IPR issues Also drug issues Medical issues also, I think that there are some of problems So also we need to look at each potential TPP member also they have their own consideration Of course in Japan Political turmoil, you are very familiar and the reform of laws and regulations Including agriculture, fishery, intellectual property rights, especially insurance and post services Also, I'd like to say that at this stage actually Japan is facing with tough mission because Japan needs to negotiate TPP also you need to negotiate with EU also you need to negotiate with on the platform R-STEP That's the most Most important mission Compared with Japan, I think that ROK is quite you know positive in the past. They already finished Their bilateral FTA negotiation with United States with EU with other members in Asia Pacific region That's why today ROK it becomes relaxed a little bit Of course for ROK in this region actually They You know that to some extent their life benefits, but more responsibility in this region ROK said that we already have a lot of a series of bilateral FTA with those TPP negotiating members In case that You know the condition becomes matured and then ROK it's easier for ROK to join TPP The problem is that ROK just say you know is questioning the transparency of the negotiation process and results This is quite similar with China and then next slide I will talking about China's concerns Meanwhile, you'll have to notice that Thailand and Philippine also express their interest for TPP However for Thailand Seriously, they have their seriously Wave the pros and cons and not in haste to join the TPP negotiation For Philippine, we think that the total situation is worse than that in Vietnam In China, you know that actually regarding TPP now we already formulated a lot of you know viewpoints and theories Due to lack of transparency and information of TPP in China so a lot of scholars just say, you know gas and just say, you know What happened for TPP and what's Contents what's the directions and the trend of the TPP and then they formulated different For me, I think that's a miss on the six type of misunderstanding I concluded the first is the conspiracy viewpoints That's like that the TPP is a conspiracy Orchested by the US aiming to limit as constrain constrain china's, you know Development and this is a very typical, you know Typical Viewpoints, I think that this type of viewpoints over estimated the IQ of the United States Actually, United States is also a late comer Actually p4 is you know initiative country of TPP The second viewpoints that is a pessimism Viewpoints Some of scholars they conducted so a lot of detailed calculation on TPP East Asia FTA CJK FTA something like that and then the conclusion is that oh TPP will dominate the process of Asia specifically economic integration and all East Asia cooperation mechanism will be disappeared. I don't agree with these viewpoints And waiting viewpoints means that come on TPP is so far from from us A long distance because so high centered. So what we can do is just waiting. So this is This is a wrong, you know attitude And the first one is disturbing viewpoints That is given that the United States and Japan and other members Didn't allow china to join TPP That means we can make disturb disturbing for this This progress I said that for china China is a big country. It's no need for china to disturb any, you know trade and the investment liberalization and the facilitation process China will respect any, you know mechanism and any platform in this region The opposed viewpoints also, you know that for some of the scholars They say that we can use the CJK FTA against TPP We can use RCIP to against TPP. I said that Definitely that's wrong viewpoints Actually, you know that there is no any conflict between RCIP and TPP They could be the parallel, you know tracks in this region The last one is dominant viewpoints. I don't agree you say that China will dominant RCEP United States will dominant TPP And Japan wants to dominate the 10 plus 6 something like that You know just due to this type of dominating Viewpoints and those big economic properties They are they have their mistrust in this region If you look at the EU you can find that Britain, Germany, France belong into big economic entities in that region But they don't say that Great Britain will dominate EU process or France will dominate the integration process in EU They they are actually every country in this region No matter big country or you know small country They are equal. We need to negotiate. We need to sit together. We need to cooperate So I don't think that dominant is a good, you know saying in this region Lastly, I like to talk about how to improve, you know transparency of TPP negotiation Even if in the United States and in Canada, you know that some of voices Complain and complaining voices from business circle I heard Because you know that for those businessmen they say that Actually, we want to know what's the future trend and future directions for TPP negotiation But we don't know because TPP has a negotiation has a very strict information, you know Disclosure Of course for China, you know that at this time point It's very urgent and it's very important for China to reform and opening up further Premier Li Keqiang says that In China now, you know that in the past China was enjoying Demographic dividend But gradually in China this type of dividend will be disappeared In the next stage, maybe, you know, we will we can enjoy our reform dividend That that means, you know, we need to find the right direction of reform and opening up Just before, you know that Mr. Isheji already mentioned actually Regional economic integration will be China's Second time, you know drawing WTO this type of effect and the regional integration will provide the new driving force for China's reform and opening up That means China need to need to study Directions of TPP We want to know what will be happened for TPP and what type of rules will be decided by TPP So in this regard, I think that I suggest that maybe TPP negotiators can, you know, provide A good chance for China. Maybe, you know that you can consider Make China Becomes a limited, you know observer observer for TPP negotiation I just like to say for China, we don't want to know your, you know, negotiating secret Your price, you know for TPP. However, we just want to know what's the directions What's the trend and what's the rules development Trend so that's very important for China. So we want to know the relative, you know information Also, that will make us to consider TPP right on the right way Last point regarding RCIP. I also like to raise my concerns for for this You know that for 10 plus RCIP will based on five 10 plus one The problem is that for for another except 10 countries in Asia Another six countries you didn't find, you know, any bilateral There are their lack of some of bilateral or actual important FTA such as CJAK Such as China, Australia, such as Japan, Australia this type of FTA If this type of bilateral or bilateral FTA will be the Critical factor for RCIP I don't know the answer. I hope to to listen your opinion on that The second question is that For RCIP a lot of countries claims that RCIP also should be a high standard But I like to say that High standard means that the process negotiation process will be very difficult even if for TPP I think that if TPP can provide You know a certain Flexibility that means TPP it would be possible for TPP to make consensus Also for RCIP. I think it's true If you look at the sepa between China and Hong Kong Hong Kong, you can find that at the beginning we have a sepa one Gradually we upgraded sepa to today already becomes sepa nine. I think that's a very good model Lastly regarding flexibility issues. I think that For RCIP or for TPP negotiation A few laws would be possible or also could be acceptable especially for RCIP Because you know that for example For India I don't think that you know that India could be you know For India it would be easier to to negotiate FTA because in India their manufacture sector is quite weak Just may contribute GDP contribution 20 percent So meanwhile if you visit India, you can find that infrastructure is quite you know quite bad So for India, I think that there is a long way of Industrialization and urbanization to go So that's why you know that I don't think India could be a you know qualified negotiator for RCIP, but that's just my personal opinion not on behalf of you know NDRC or my institute So That's my viewpoints. So thank you for your attention. Thank you That was excellent Dr. Song. Thank you and we don't have a first-class prize, but if we did you would you would win it We in the past Treatment of developing countries RCIP is likely to be very flexible whereas TPP is not so flexible Now the impacts of TPP and set RCIP on Japanese economy According to the official Estimate by the Japanese government actually Japanese cabinet office TPP would lift raise Japan's GDP by 0.66 percent Although this may sound small, but you know Japanese economy is growing at like one or two percent the most 0.66 percent is not so small however A study done by Peter Petrie and others for Petersen Institute came up with larger numbers. The difference is that the Petrie and others included very interesting Mechanisms such as you know Entry and exit of companies Or so-called dynamism into the model whereas Japan's cabinet office estimate is done on a static level Very you know standard type again Peter Petrie came up with larger number Whichever the number is Is clear that TPP and RCIP would Contribute to Japan's economic growth However, there's a strong opposition Particularly from the agriculture sector They talk about the food security It may not be achieved if we rejoin TPP Multifunctionality of agriculture will be damaged But in my view the Strongest position or the reason for position comes from this protection of vested interest I don't want to spend too much time on this, but I can spend a lot of time and You have to be You have to take a risk if you Do this kind of thing. Not only maybe in Japan, but other countries too You get a lot of phone calls. You get nasty emails and so on, but I still think this vested interest is the problem in japan and this shows the This diagram shows the level of protection For selected items in japan and I remember I used the same diagram last year Although, you know, the numbers should change in my view Because, you know, yen appreciation or depreciation that will change the so-called this differential International price and domestic price But ministry agriculture keeps using this Diagram and I just wondered Why they do that and if we compare rice price International price and domestic price or producer's price. It's about 200 percent 300 percent. It's not 788 percent Again, this is my just a guess Maybe our culture ministry wants to tell the farmers that we are protecting you a lot And if we remove this protection 788 percent Then we'll have a Disaster and that's not true As I told you Rice price is differential between international and domestic prices much much less. So all these are You know Propaganda and that is really making Negotiation very difficult And finally I'd like to end with my concluding remarks I think japan should contribute to a quick conclusion of FDA Not only RCEP because TPP we are not in yet, but once we are in we should contribute to the quick Conclusion of TPP CJK China, Japan Korea Japan EU and so on By maybe as I should guess I'm proposed having this kind of informal or formal Consultation among major Stakeholders that could be a very I think are useful forum to move negotiations forward and then Japan should establish high-level FTA's In issue coverage and tariff elimination To maximize the benefits from FTA's and as I show you earlier Japan's FTA so far are not High-level in terms of issue coverage and tariff elimination in that regard I Was disappointed to hear about the sanctuary stuff Agriculture and the auto in the u.s. These are the sectors in these two countries which really need Structure adjustment if we exclude them, you know, what's the purpose of having TPP? I do understand that if you exclude these I mean if you include these maybe we cannot you know standard the starting line, but What we need to do is not to exclude them We should take time You know, it may take maybe 10 years 15 years 20 years to deal with these issues But we cannot just simply exclude them and I I'd like to see through negotiation that they'll be included Okay, and then Japan should prepare safety nets Like, you know, trade adjustment assistant Programs in the u.s. And similar programs in Korea made it easier for at least Korea to To sign or to conclude FTA Japan doesn't have that and I'd like to see Japan to at least look into that possibility And then Japan should establish a body to oversee and coordinate all these FTA negotiations We know that, you know, TPP is a big negotiation and we have Minister Amari to Take responsibility, but we need earlier body which looks over the other FTAs as well And finally, uh, Japanese political leaders and I like to see Prime Minister Abe to stick to his position on TPP and other FTA negotiations and indeed TPP according to my understanding of Prime Minister Abe's three arrow strategy TPP is a major component of the growth strategy. And I like to see That to be implemented. Thank you very much Thank you, Rata sensei. We also would like to post TPP they won't have to pay 1600 percent for Konyaku Because there are two sides to that story and there are a lot more consumers and farmers President thank you Thank you They are already provided As always, we take the easy way out and just go to the main general outlines But nonetheless, I think I would like to provide Perspective that may have different nuances compared to China and Japan And I'm come from Singapore, but I would provide the ASEAN 10 countries perspective The outlines of my papers is on New developments in the Asia Pacific economic integration trans-pacific partnership from the ASEAN perspectives To some extent also the Singapore perspective The second is regional comprehensive economic partnership or RCEP Which I think the two previous speakers have not Given some of the inside track of the ASEAN perspectives The third one is a china japan korea fta And the last one in a way is a policy conclusions on ASEAN perspective on tbp and cjk fta The trans-pacific partnerships has concluded 16 around in fact actually now I think it's going on from 14 to 25th in lima peru So the 17 round is Being held now in lima peru in May 2013 The current goal is to reach an agreement in time for the october 2013 apex summit in bali in october For the deadline to be achieved outstanding negotiating position need to be table soon in order for political decision to be made The consensus in ASEAN countries Different some ASEAN countries have a different slight Timeline, but I think it's not possible to be signed at least based on the honolulu leaders apex general guidelines Decisions on key market access such as dairy sugar and textile And apparel may be dependent on the outcome of controversial arose negotiations Such as IPR and state-owned enterprises. I'm saying here. I'm emphasizing the ASEAN perspectives 21 chapters in the agreement are under discussion The u.s. Is negotiating market access for goods services and agriculture We country with which it does not currently have FTAs brunay Malaysia New Zealand and vietnam in fact actually the u.s. Has only with singapore fta and The u.s. Wants to use the template of singapore u.s. FTA To be concluding with the other asian partner, but it it fails Negotiations are also being conducted on discipline to IPR trade in services government procurement investment rules of origin competition labor environmental standards and other issues Most of those are disciplines. I think Should not be a problems except that government procurement because of the In malaysia particularly and also in vietnam because of the socialist economic structures in vietnam because of the bumiputra policies but in singapore also the so is a lot of the Productive service productive capacities are owned by the state but not managed by the state. So it's a different shades of rules The labor issues and their labor issues more than anything else probably also would pose Problems in many asian member countries when the senator Mentioned it. I think I a bit concerned that this could be a post problem Some topics such as state on enterprises regulatory coherence And supply chains competitiveness break new ground on FTA Negotiations. I think these are not issue or asian perspective of major economies the united states perspective The tp the tpp serving strategic goals of u.s. Trade policy is a leading trade policy initiative of the obama Administration as well as major manifestation of the administration pivot to asia. In fact, actually, I think In my personal view It has to be moderated and tone. That's why china oppositions and many interpretation of tpp because it is Soul or it is it was initiated as a us pivot It's not only just on trade not on economics, but on securities. So the china set an alarm So I think somehow need to be uh, in fact, actually I agree with uh, uh Is a good son that I think it is good economically for china that should be interpreted as the second time around for china to be Just like in the 2001 december admission as accession to the wto But the tone and the emphasis the focus has to be changed and it must come from the united states If concluded tpp may serve to shape the economic architecture of asia-pacific region by harmonizing Existing agreements with us fta partners attracting new participant as establishing Regional rules on new policy issue facing the global economy possibly providing impetus to future multilateral Liberation under the wto I think this part of it is also the us has to moderate it It's so much like 21st century standards high standards comprehensive all those things Those areas are not a problem in my views and asian view from china the issue of it is somehow if leadership strategic and non-economic issues that somehow embodied in the us tpp policy up to today to date The china perspective tpp is considered as the us trade policy and strategic objective to discipline china economic and strategic interest And influence in asia and having the element to contain This is the unfortunate part of it Which economic and military rise and its leadership role in east asia regional economic integration Which in my view asian country does not subscribe to it some do but Generally, I would say the tone is not Okay, so somehow the us has to moderate the china us tpp Is not what it was sold or marketed in the initial stage China frequently suggests that the numerous provisions of the tpp are designed to make it difficult for china To participate and actually aim to achieve the goal of excluding china Which I don't think it is the case and many asian countries do not believe such But it it has been sold or marketed in such a platform Unfortunately, despite the obama administration declared policy intention That the promotion of tpp is designed to apply pressure on china to follow the rules of international trade Well, I think this part of it. Uh, professor chang has uh Mentioned it but I generally agree with it But the tone from from the asian 10 countries is that It is not what china's perceive, but it is for domestic consumption in china itself Therefore china vigorously support asian initiated regional comprehensive economic partnership And china japan korea fda as china can achieve its twin objective in Of east asia regional economic integration without confronting the u.s directly and achieve east asia economic integration to our set so in a sense that My personal view and shared by some many asian scholars and analysts is that China also on their part project and Conceptualized that the tpp is a us designed to do all these sort of things that they They intend to To do harm and negative to china, but it's But actually china also as a rising emerging power superpower Will like to have its leadership so by initially Accepting automatically the tpp not on the economic contents, but on the others China in a sense relegated its leadership role in its neighborhood China also accord high trade policy priority to promote china japan korea fda Realistically china korea fda would be concluded first as south korea has already an Fda v us and therefore having less external pressure from the us The negotiation process of cjk is complicated as china and japan have to Delicately balance and manage the domestic politics due to heightened territorial dispute in east china sea But nonetheless, I think is china very strongly support the cjk fda tpp is interpreted as divisive to east asia economic integration at china korea in india indonesia are not part of tpp negotiating countries Indonesia, I could say also is not in favor at this point of of joining tpp But concentrating on the asian economic communities and the asian Japan perspective This one prime minister abey announced that japan will enter tpp negotiating round However, it is unclear when japan will be able to join the negotiations Is it in the 17 round schedule in rimapuru? Which is or beyond? Most a lot of people in asian would think that the next round would be in malaysia in august But not sure yet where the japan would be able to do it because of the three months uh Notifications timeline In entering the the tpp negotiation the abey administration does not have a full consensus among ruling coalition parties As the agriculture issue are important to ldb political constituency I tend to agree with my colleague, uh, professor urata. I think it has been overblown By japan's the differences and disparities are not that big as as generally understood and um And marketed in in japan Japan is uh strongly negotiating asian initiative rsep and has agreed to start negotiation with china And korea on cjk fda It is to be seen how japan would balance its trade policy priority between tpp rsep and cjk fda I have to go through quickly because uh the The monitor is seeing three more minutes Very difficult Joining the tpp negotiation is very important economic political decision as japan is embarking a major economic restructuring and Revitalization of its decade long slow growth economic trajectory Japan commitment in tpp can be catalyst to a launch needed domestic economic reform I think in most asian countries they support Particularly singapore of the japan decision to join the tpp at the same time Supporting rsep is also important as japan supports only asian economic integration and east asia through comprehensive economic partnership cpia, which now take the form of rsep. So rsep is conceptually a A amalgam or integrations of china support fda east asia fda and cpia Comprehensive comprehensive economic partnership agreement under the east asia summits framework China and south korea are very important economically to japan as the three major economies constitute more than 70% of east asia gdp And there's enormous potential to benefit from economic integration through cjk China japan south korea have officially agreed to start negotiations into 2003 Now the last part of it is the rsep the u.s. Perspective. This is again from my personal uh perspective from southeast asia The u.s. Is not interested to participate in asian let us say as it considered not comprehensive and high standard fda And this also this branding need to be moderated in my views It somehow Works the opposite direction to the u.s. Interest The broad political and business spectrum in the u.s. Is solely interested in pursuing tpp as it anchored us economic political strategic objective through the Good extent of tpp 29 chapters under negotiation and again This is again the focal point of the u.s. Which i think should be again toned down To the benefit of us and aligning convergence between tpp and rsep As a super military and economic power the u.s. Is accustomed to be a leader and not a follower in any major international regional negotiations Now china perspective china has strongly endorsed Rsep as it fits extremely well with china economic and strategic Objective in east asia it doesn't mean that china against the tpp Just purely from the economic contents, but Others are the securities and non economic contents that probably and also to fit the chinese domestic politics and the That's china very much at this point opposed to the tpp Asian initiated rsep is based on the concept of asian centrality. So china again and again every opportunities Reaffirmed its commitment to asian centrality So default ha at these states of development china may feel more comfortable that East asia economic integration is managed through asian You can ask these issues. I don't have the details, but I have quite a numbers of strong points on this issue The conclusion of rsep negotiation is scheduled at end of 2015 Coinciding with the completion of the asian economic community objective of single market and production base. So it is necessary that In order to negotiate to complete rsep in not in the total complete form, but probably in a stage Just like mentioned it by professor urata and professor jam But I think it will be concluded The conclusion of rsep could be delayed But the rsep completed date does not matter to china as much as this to asian asian is very very Take it very seriously Now, how about the japan perspective? Japan has also strongly endorsed rsep as the objective of rsep fits to its national objective as asian provides the width and breadth of japan economic and strategic space in view of the rising of china Japan will facilitate the process of rsep negotiation through a more flexible negotiation by focusing more on trade and investment facilitation and economic cooperation aspect of rsep So when deals with rsep trade cooperation economic Trade facilitation economic cooperation and deal with because rsep is not only just trade liberalization But economic development and community building Which there is no such element in the tpp The inclusion of india australia new zealand is also augur well for japan broad trade policy in asia pacific region Japan would adopt a two-track trade policy by joining tpp and rsep negotiation simultaneously tpp is considered as having upper bias and rsep has downward bias mode of economic integration at this point It is difficult to conceptualize the convergence of tpp and rsep process particularly because tpp The the outcomes and the details are not open to public and i I support the izegesans and professor urata's suggestion to be more coordination in order to provide a certain convergence And china japan korea fta the last point is the priority of the u.s trade policy in asia pacific is to complete the tpp successfully This would serve the u.s objective for apec land fta ap which i'm not very sure that u.s really Going toward that point and probably the template for the multilateral trade negotiations. Also. I'm not very sure on that point So the tpp is the cornerstone of the u.s trade policy and the embodiment of the broad strategic interest in the asia pacific region I think us should focus more on the economic contents of tpp rather than the broad strategic interest Which alarm china and use that for its domestic politics The conclusion of cjk would sidetrack the us of its increasingly vital linkage to east asia economic dynamism On china perspective would be vital strategy to dock in with asian land accept an asia economic community to complete east asia economic integration because southeast asia has already aec asian economic community north east asia cjk china japan korea doesn't have that framework so realistically China expects to complete cjk first before progressing wider towards cjk as Japan is under pressure domestically and regionally to Priority to tpp first Despite china territorial dispute with japan. There is a wide consensus to proceed and complete cjk trade Negotiation, however, the reciprocal sentiment is not clear on cjk in japan But I heard from isegae sansa japan also strongly support the The conclusion the negotiations of that issue Just a little bit few more here japan is officially agreed To start trade negotiations on cjk the the issue is the structure The scope the time and the speed of the cjk negotiate because you have to balance with the tpp and the asap Probably this part of it is I should look at ASEAN perspective on tpp and cjk Because I don't have the time ASEAN policy focus is to complete the asian economic community by 2015 At the 20th asian summit in april 13 in bandar street begawan brunai asian Leaders agree to start Asap negotiation in may intellectually started in on the 9th of may In fact, surely still progressing at this point on tpp There is no collective policy consensus. Singapore, brunai, malaysia and vietnam are in tpp negotiation So there is no leader in fact actually Outwardly publicly announced what's a sort of a position asians you take on tpp Indonesia is the key asian member state which has no intention to join tpp so far While thailand and the philippines are not clear of their official position on tpp Although thailand has indicated its interest in tpp when president obama visited thailand late last year because prime minister yin look Did not have anything to say to president obama, but my view is thailand is taking its time Thailand main priority is to concentrate on the cmlv the Cambodia laos miama laos and connecting to miama obama and with india and of course with the asian economic community the completions of CJK FTA is conceptually important for the overall east asia economic integration as it would facilitate accept trade negotiation dock in with the asian economic community There is no exception all asian 10 countries support the CJK FTA If the asian economic community and asap are successfully completed as scheduled by 2015 They would enhance the concept of asian centrality The aec is progressing well And the way forward for asap negotiations to integrate the asian plus one fta with china japan south korea india australia new zealand as there are many common elements that can be cobbled together through common tariffs non-tariff barrel cumulative rules of origin trade in services investment Trade facilitation mri and other chapters. So those are the main points of my presentation. Thank you Thank you. Professor lim will turn now to scott miller from csis to give the comments and the u.s. perspective Thank you. I'll uh, since it's uh, i'm the only thing between you and the break i'll Save time by not waddling to the platform Stay right here in any case. Thank you. It's a pleasure to be here I'd ask you first and foremost to heed dr. Zhang's advice Which is don't overestimate the iq or ability of the american on the panel here I'll make three quick points and look forward to your questions and comments afterwards first Is a point about convergence in east asia and in the asia pacific? You've seen an excellent overview of Which includes sort of an inventory of the whole trade policy agenda in the asia pacific. It is impressive There's a lot of variation in scope and coverage And there's no question. There's a noodle bowl, but there's a lot of activity going on The important issue to my mind is not the fact that there's a noodle bowl now and there's a lot of complexity It's what's on the menu in 10 or 15 years And how do we help guide the process? As interested parties not as the united states or any individual country, but gets the place that we leave a more satisfactory commercial environment for our citizens That's why I think the architecture of the next 20 years is an important thing to consider now Uh to make my point I'd actually look back 20 years 20 years ago this summer was a was a very active summer in washington for trade policy We were debating the nafta And the nafta was a breakthrough agreement in its scope and and uh and coverage and and complexity And it dealt with a tremendous number of issues It was world class at the time and the negotiators and the con did a wonderful job negotiating it the congress wisely approved it And while nafta was a great success if you go back 20 years ago to the files from places like csis and other other think tanks All the arguments were about essentially demand side issues We were we were engaging in this free trade agreement to sell things to each other Okay to get achieve market access to do the kinds of things Today nafta is probably more important than it was 20 years ago But selling things to each other the demand side Is the least important part of nafta What we use nafta for today the three the three parties mexico canada the united states is we make things together What's happened is a massive evolution in it enabled global supply networks those supply networks take place every day Beneath our feet in the united in north america and so we've reached the point now where excluding excluding energy which is a major Traded commodity among the three parties, but take energy out of the equation The typical canadian Export to the united states and the typical mexican export to the united states Both have more than 40 u.s content when they cross the border That's the degree of trading components and trade that was unexpected at the time of nafta and fact unplanned for so This this brings me to to make make a point that there's a policy and a practical approach to this The policy approach was articulated and i i want to make sure Ishiki san gets credit for this because he basically talked in his presentation about the policy argument for a new quad Sorry canada, but it's uh It's the u.s the european union japan and china who on a policy level at the trade minister level ought to be talking about this architecture Talking about not what the where things are now, but where things are going and i think it's a provocative and important Recommendation and an opportunity for real creativity. I would add there was a practical dimension to this as well The practical dimension is right before our negotiating partners in that i by my account Including japan as a tpp partner Seven of the 12 so a majority of tpp negotiating partners are also negotiating our set Okay, japan, singapore, new zealand, brunei, australia, malaysia uh vietnam All right, so there is a there is a there is a majority of parties at the table Doing things like talking about customs administration in and and agreeing to disciplines and let's just Take that chapter customs administration in tpp Who ought to have no interest in a different set of obligations in our set in fact there ought to be strong pressure For the same set of obligations to the extent that that can happen Beyond customs procedures and in through the broader text of our set and tpp The convergence will help us Decide what's on the menu in 20 years And not be worrying about the newtables. So I think I think this is entirely possible I think uh my colleague from singapore will ensure his government does this and frank This is sort of singapore's core business if you look at The way the country operates and where its success comes from but the other six parties To the tpp who are also parties to our set should think about this from a negotiating standpoint and work very practically to solve the problems that could be solved now Second point i'd make is about uh is about economic growth and the needs That the united states and japan both have for economic growth and the fact that we need each other To press for reforms in both economies now look at the united states Situation is very simple as I see it from washington First we're all out of fiscal stimulus. Okay, we we did a uh an object of a stimulus package in 2009 All the budget talk in washington these days is about cutting spending not increasing spending We're in the world of sequesters fiscal stimulus is not a way to get our economy growing second monetary policy of my my compliments to Chairman Bernanke and the federal reserve board for keeping the economy out of a second recession But quantitative easing has reached its practical limits And in fact most of the talk if you read yesterday's wealth free journal was about when quantitative easing stops when when you know when the uh The monetary easing comes to an end not how to do it more or how to get more out of quantitative easing So without that what's left on the policy agenda? Well for me Opening markets is always a good solution Both because opening markets abroad helps increase the competitiveness and the performance Of globally engaged american companies which represent 23 of our economy and the most productive Uh capacity building elements of our of our economy are globally engaged companies But also reform to our domestic economy, which helps consumers and helps helps the the Adopt reforms that we need to do anyway, but our trading partners can ask us Here's the opportunity of the tpp with japan included all of a sudden Unlike the the old p4 that we joined in 2005 six or seven tpp now contains three of our five largest trading partners And big trading partners can ask the united states to do things that small ones can't Okay, i'm always you know one of the things i nag constantly about is dairy reform I think our dairy programs badly need to be reformed I'm always i always realize this when i travel to to costa rica or or panama And I look on the restaurant table and there's new zealand butter on the table And you know knowing we have free trade agreements, but new zealand can deliver the butter more efficiently than american farmers can Irritates me so i know there's room for reform in our economy The issue is new zealand's not big enough to ask us to reform our Our dairy industry and for us to say yes, here's the thing. Here's the power of tpp with japan Canada mexico involved those economies are big important trading partners of the united states They can ask us to undertake reform that we're likely to do So finally let me address the issue of sensitivities, which is always a big topic in trade agreements Look, let me acknowledge first of all that every economy has sensitivities What I would like to say is first you have to keep the sensitivities in context and second Sensitive sectors aren't Let me Keeping the sensitive sectors sensitivities in context is there's a bigger game to be For the citizens by reforming the economy and reform is difficult and requires political courage But it's that it's that economic reform that produces the the growth onward i'm glad that the members of congress the the clinton white house and the Negotiators who negotiated nafta took on sensitive sectors then to open up the north american market I think americans are better off. I think citizens are better off in all three all three countries. That can be achieved It's important as we consider sensitivities that we not get stuck in one another's talking points I my personal blood pressure goes up when I see food security referred to in the context of agriculture protection I would note That here today the the person from the country with the greatest level of soup food security is My colleague from singapore singapore grows nothing but orchids Okay, and has tremendous food security Eggs eggs I forgot about eggs Okay, in any case the place has incredible food security with open markets the uh On the other hand the the country in the asia pacific That is most focused on a real policy of food security is north korea How's that working out in any case? Let me let me get to my final comment on on Sensitive sectors aren't there are sensitivities. There are sensitive companies sensitive products, but sectors as a whole usually Have a broad range of competitors involved Some of whom are truly exposed to import competition and need some Some effort expanded to address that exposure to import composition for the sake of the workers and the sake of the business There are also globally competitive companies in the every sector and even the Senator carden mentioned textiles and apparel. It will be a sensitive sector for the united states But if the whole sense the sector is not sensitive talk to sarah lee and companies that are Haynes brands that companies that are globally engaged Engaged in global supply networks and and moved in the modern world There's no question. There are import competing industries But the policy ought to be not to protect the import competing industries on the whole by protecting the whole sector But rather by moving The architecture of the agreement that addresses the the modernization needs and moves the whole industry Toward a more competitive more sustainable future. This is true in autos in korea at the same time as you had one American auto company headquartered in deer barn Raising great concerns about the korean market. You had another American auto company headquartered in downtown detroit Which had a 19 share of the korean market. All right, there's some diversity there That's not a sensitive sector. There are sensitivities and making that distinction. I think is helpful to all of us because It it will help our negotiators Have the imagination to bring the real reform that is potential that has we have the potential of achieving Through the trans specific partnership With that i'll turn it back over to mike and we look forward to your comments after the break You