 The final tune up for the PGA tour before they head to Augusta next week is this week at the Valero, Texas open at TPC San Antonio and we got some good names in the field trying to get ramped up before the Masters next week. So a decent field to discuss some fun names and each salary tier and what should be a pretty good event from a DFS perspective. So let's lock in, get you set for some DFS for this week at the Valero, Texas open. Welcome on into the He Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula. He is the senior managing editor of numberfire.com. Did I say your title, your new title, right? Did I did I did I jack it up there? We're all good. We're good. I got to get in my rhythm and change it up now because you're the senior managing editor of numberfire.com. Brandon Gadoula. He's on Twitter. I can do a 13 Brandon. You're old now. How are you feeling? Old. Old decrepit. Aged. Yeah. Actually, uh, well, I got a haircut. Um, I saw that. Yes. And my hair was getting quite long and I felt young because I used to grow my hair out as a youngster. They added the word senior to your title and now you're just washed, right? Like that's, that's the, do you back her a little more this morning? Uh, yeah, my back always hurts. My knees always hurt. Well, just the one really, but, um, got a nice haircut, um, feeling a little bit more mature. So I'm going to go through this hour or so with no jokes. Um, all serious. Uh, this is a grown up podcast. As always, we've never once told a lie. Told a joke on this year podcast, not once in the entirety of our lives. Almost serious business way. Yeah. We've never joked. Surely we don't jest. I forgot the actual line. I know that it involves surely. Don't call me surely, but we're trying to bait me here. No, it's a, it's an airplane joke, right? No, it's, it deals with the league that we don't really discuss that the Saudi league and all that kind of stuff. Oh, I thought you were talking, making like an airplane joke. Okay. Just great anyway. Greg Norman wrote a letter to the PGA tour and it opens up surely you jest. So it's been a, oh, Greg, it's been a fun. There was formula one in Saudi Arabia this past week too. So it's been a, it's been a interesting, uh, WWE was just there. There was a missile strike six miles from the track during practice Friday. Just things are going great. Things are just delightful across the board. But what's also delightful is the field for this week at the Valero Texas Open. We're going to break things down from a DFS perspective and get you said for this week's field in just one second. But first, hey basketball fans, we are in the heat of March Madness as the 2022 field is down into the final four teams. And this year, Fandals partner with visible wireless to give you a one of a kind contest for the final two rounds of the NCAA tournament. The call your shot pick them presented by visible is a free to play contest where you make predictions for this weekend's games and compete for cash prizes. Simply answer a few pick them questions for each game this weekend and their points for each correct answer. The more you get right, the more points you'll earn and the more cash you could win. Head over to Fandals.com slash free slash contest slash visible wireless and make your prediction today. I'm assuming there's a banner up in the lobby as well. But Fandals.com slash free slash contest slash visible wireless and make your prediction today. There is no better way to get out on the action than with the call your shot pick them presented by by visible. So a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast where of course an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcasts. You name it. You can find us there for NBA NHL USC and NASCAR podcast. No USC this week from Austin Swain. But back next week on NASCAR on Friday breaking down Richmond and of course Tom Vecchio with NBA NHL DFS and the solo shot back next week for the opening day of Major League Baseball your favorite sports to begin the 390 day season of Major League Baseball Brandon starting next week. I'm sure you are thrilled and will be living in the DFS streets. Yes, as someone who is a managing editor planning out content. Senior managing editor senior editor part of the gig here and I'm looking into the baseball schedule realizing there are like 16 games scheduled on like every Tuesday. That's very fun to have extra baseball nonstop baseball. It's always good never to be able to step away from any sport and do anything else. So I'm looking looking forward to this MLB season. Why would you want to step away from the league that has Byron Buxton? That's my true question here. But whatever we can address that later on. Also, if you want some final four betting thoughts we have John Rothstein a CBS sports on covering the spread yesterday. I find that by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, let's dive in here to the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio the Oaks course. It is 7,438 yards and it is a par 72. The event was canceled back in 2020 due to COVID-19. So of course course history. We got 2021 data. But then before that 2019, 2018, et cetera, et cetera. There are 144 golfers in the field for this week. The top 65 plus ties will make the cut after the first two rounds and the winner of this event would still qualify for the Masters if they are not already qualified. So keep that in mind. Ricky. If there are guys hypothetically who are not yet qualified, they could do so for this week's maybe a little extra motivation, win juice narrative and play for this week at the Valero Texas Open. Brandon, we do know what to expect in TPC San Antonio. They've been here for 13, 14-ish years for this event at this course. What do we know about TPC San Antonio? Yeah, kind of a long par 72 but pretty wide open. According to data golf, this has the least penal rough on the PGA tours. Basically, you can downplay driving accuracy. That's not to say driving distance is a must, but whenever you have a course where driving accuracy doesn't matter so much, usually that's a bit of a green light to target golfers who do hit it longer who generally don't hit it as straight as the shorter hitters. Jordan Spieth won here last year while spraying it all over the place. I think we all remember that leading in to the Masters. Last year, five of the 11 golfers tied for the top 10. We're outside the top 50 in driving accuracy for the week, so it's definitely not a key stat for me with driving accuracy. That said, it's still hard to gain strokes from shorter approaches. You kind of want some distance, but even with the shorter approaches, you're going to have a little bit of trouble. The bunkers are really where you don't want to miss. You can stay in the rough off the green. You just don't want to go into the bunkers here. You can look at sand saves in case that's an angle you want to play. Sand saves might be the worst traditional stat, honestly, because it doesn't account for any sort of difficulty. You also have to make the putt as long as you don't assume you don't hold out. It's kind of a weird course to explain based on key stats, because there's not a specific archetype that you have to have in order to win. That said, I like driving distance this week. I like stroke skiing approach. I like stroke skiing around the green, and I like birdie or better rate, because the past winners here have been 18 under, 20 under, 17 under, and then 12 under and 12 under. So, you know, plenty of birdies to be had out there, and you want to be able to take advantage of just basically not getting into trouble, and, you know, some sort of distance can really help with that off the tee. Yeah, so I'm looking at stroke skiing off the tee just because, like, it's kind of a blend of, like, shorter and longer stuff, so I kind of wanted to go and, like, you look at last year or past data in terms of off the tee stats, there isn't really kind of, like you said, one archetype that tends to shine through. So, I just want to go with stroke skiing off the tee, look at the better overall players. I thought that was a key there. Do it birdies or better gained in there as well So, putting, I have, like, a blend of, like, weighted towards Poha, but, like, also overall putting stats in there just because the sample on Poha is smaller and because, like, there are a lot of dudes who don't have, like, a lot of Poha. Like, there are a lot of younger guys in this field too, so it's kind of a weird week. I'll reference it as just, like, putting. But, like, know that it's, like, a blend of Poha in there with overall putting. How important for you is the birdies or better gained factor there? Are you, like, selling out for birdie makers however they get there this week? Or is it more so just, like, bumping up guys who make a lot of birdies, maybe bumping down guys who don't? So, the way that I use key stats isn't just picking the four or five that I mentioned and making, like, a ranking and saying whoever has the lowest total ranking or whatever or the highest total score or whatever it is. Every time I cite a key stat for me, it just goes into my model and everything is just a percentage, it's weighted. So for me, stroke gain approach always gets about 30 to 35% of the rating that I end up using. For me this week, birdie or better rate is 10%. Some weeks I don't have it weighted in. Some weeks I have it higher than that. This week for me, it's about 10%. So, I mean, to answer your question, it's great to have, you know, good birdie numbers and I want guys who make birdies, but that's only a small piece to the puzzle as really is the case with all golf events at any course. Yep, as always again, making tweaks, not making cross-offs, stuff like that based on what you're looking for there. Yeah, and the best example always is just because of course rewards driving accuracy, you don't just rank the guys by fairways hit. You're going to have a bad time. I usually don't, but I can hit a fairway. Birdie or better rate is going to get you closer where you need to be than just driving accuracy, but it's something that I say a lot is it's all just parts of it and while birdie or better rate I think matters this week, we do see cut lines around even, so you don't have to go super low under to make the cut. You probably have to go low to win, but it's not that win juice at some point. Yeah, you want that or you want that stroke scene approach. You know who does have win juice at this course specifically Brandon? One Corey Connors. It's one Corey Connors. Corey Connors is 11-6. We transition now into the course history section of our discussion for today. Corey Connors, back in 2019, got to win here at TPC San Antonio in the Valero Texas Open. He is one of the studs for this week. Pretty short betting odds. What is your read on Connors based on his history at this course? Yeah, I mean, we're always prepped. We're always looking for a Corey Connors week on the heat check and that's worked out in the past at the Valero. He has finished 26th in 2018, one in 2019 and then was 14th in 2021. Well, having some weak chipping, which he also did in his win as well and anyone who watched the match play probably saw a lot of the same things with some of that short game from Corey Connors. Although I hear a lot on the coverage that Corey Connors is a great putter and has great short game. It's not really there statistically, but hey, I look at the numbers not necessarily the film, especially when it comes to golf. But Connors rates out with some of the best form in the field, in addition to having great course history, made it the final fourth WGC match play, finished third, was 26th at the players, 11th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He's got the right stats, the right fit for this course. The big issue is the salary of 11,600. While I think in a vacuum that's justified and his win odds being where they are at 16 to 1, it makes sense. The issue is to play Corey Connors in DFS. You're saying, I like him. I'm not going to get to Roy McElroy for an extra 400. I'm going to have a hard time with that. Yeah, it's Rory specifically for me. Like, Spieth, whatever. I mean, like he's had his issues. I can understand that. I can use Connors in that discussion. Honestly, even like Connors versus Hideki is kind of tough for me too. I don't know if Hideki is 100%, so I'm not that concerned with Hideki this week. Right, but it's still, I know that they check a lot of the same boxes when they're at full go and stuff like that. It's hard for me to care too much about that. I think for me, the main thing is, can I use Connors over McElroy? I can't. Can I use him over Hideki if I assume Hideki is good? I can't. After that, it's more of a discussion where I'm okay with going to Connors, but I kind of need, it needs to be in Linus where I'm not using McElroy or Hideki for me to get there, I guess. I'm probably going to use a lot of Rory, so it's not going to be a large number of Linus where I'm not going there. If I don't go Rory, I might go more balanced too. Can I do a Hideki versus Corey Connors bet? No, because it's more like a tournament mindset. I think if you're thinking about Hideki, you're thinking about it in terms of like, the ceiling is still there, because if he were truly banged up, he might not be here before he might rest up one more week before defending his title. I think that for me, it's more like a tournament mindset, and that doesn't really set up well for a head to head bet. I got you. That's kind of where I'm at with him with regards to that. Let's talk about Charlie Hoffman. Charlie Hoffman every year at this event, like you can just pencil him in. I'm kind of shocked he wasn't like auto-filled by Google on our Google back for this week. But anyway, you know, we work on it, Google. We'll workshop this. But Hoffman is golfing bad now. He's not in the Connors zone. He has missed two straight cuts. He has not been as better than 67 since the Zozo, which was not this year, but he tends to feast at TPC San Antonio. Hoffman has played this course 11 times. He has never missed a cut, and he has five top three finishes in that time. That includes both 2019 and 2021. He tends to gain strokes in every department. The problem is that the four mentoring last year was honestly good. Like I think Hoffman is also like 93 or 95. I don't know. I think he was low salary last year. I remember talking about him for this event last year. Like, hey, he's low salary, golfing pretty well. Tends to do well here. Cool. They're not as good this year. They're not even as good as they were at 2019 when he was also bad. He was 10-5 last year. What's that? He was 10-5 last year, according to our spreadsheet or our Google Doc. So you're getting a $300 discount on Hoffman this year at 10-2. Is that enough for you to buy in or are we out? Like, I get the case. He is in the, he's above the 50th percentile and all four of my adjusted stroke scheme stats. You should have some putting regression. He's longer off the teeth and he is accurate. It's a good fit. I get the case for it. I just don't necessarily know that he is a standout play for me given the salary. I think I'd rather go with a few other options around that tier. And if I can click on the right button here, I will filter and let you know exactly who that is. Chris Kirk, Ryan Palmer, Luke List, Russell Knox. Whoa. What? Whoa. You omitted someone. Johnny Vegas? Yeah. Why are we not on Johnny again? Oh, no, no. I would rather play Johnny Vegas than Charlie Hoffman. Okay. Cool. The overall takeaway is that there are guys here we like. Hoffman is not one of them. He's a pretty easy cross-off, correct? I wouldn't say I don't like Hoffman. I just don't like him as much as other guys. I don't know. It's a distinction for me. Do you want to do a Charlie Hoffman versus Roy McElroy bet? Yeah, if I get Rory. No. Yeah, I thought, see, no, no. Okay. Let's talk about Martin Laird. He is $8,800. Laird, another guy like Connors, former winner of this event. What do you see with him when you look into his course history? Yeah, another former winner at TPC San Antonio's Oaks course back in 2013. He's made eight of nine cuts with four total top 20s. That's nearly half of his starts. He's finished top 20 at this course. He'll take that at almost any salary whenever you're looking for a course form. But from a value golfer, you'll definitely take that. Just three of his total results were worse than T36. So again, a lot of good finishes here for him. The recent events really, really bogged down by awful putting. His irons are really good right now, though. Over the past three months, Laird, according to DataGov's true stroke skiing query is ninth in approach in this field, 33rd off the tee, ninth overall tee to green, 119th in putting, though. And even with that bad putting, he's still 21st in this field in stroke. They're true stroke skiing over the past three months. So I mean, you can really talk yourself into worrying about Laird for a higher salary at 88. I mean, he's no riskier than some other value golfers. I think Laird makes a lot of sense. I actually bet him outright already this week, just for the fun of it, for a nice long ticket there. Yeah, I think of the guys we're discussing. Yeah, she agrees. She's a big Martin Laird fan. I think of the guys we're discussing here in the course history, Laird is pretty easily the best option. Cause like he didn't get the price jump. Like everyone else did. Laird didn't. And like, like he said, the iron's really good putting, not, but he's also had like some good weeks off the tee. So like, he's not terrible around the green either. So like he actually has a lot of really solid data to support the fact that we should be on board with him. So I have no objections to Laird. I think that he's a pretty solid play. I think probably one of the better values in this field. Do you agree? I would agree. Okay, perfect. Let's talk about Kevin Strillman here. He is 10-3 in that same range as Hoffman, Vegas, List, et cetera, et cetera. Strillman, pretty rough earlier this year. And at the end of the summer, but perking up right now in time for a good course for him. Strillman has been here six times. He has finished top 15 in four of those, including each of the past two trips for him. Those were in eighth and 2018, sixth and 2019. So he was not here last year, but most recently Strillman finished 22nd of the players. He was seventh at the Valst bar. That wasn't thanks in part some good short game play, but the ball striking there was pretty solid too. So Strillman, good at this course, struggled over this summer, but has been getting better recently. Is that enough for you to buy back in on him at 10-3? I think the salary is just again in a range where I don't see enough. His irons are trending down like long term over the past six months. He's actually had some better putting numbers than you would expect. And even with that, he should have a little bit more regression coming his way. Also more of a bogey avoider than a birdie maker. I know that that doesn't really matter here. And that's why it doesn't matter because he's played well here, which is why birdie or better rate is just one sort of stat here that she kind of factor into certain degrees. But for me, I think that I have other names in this range. I like more than Strillman. And I feel pretty okay trying to go down to a Luke list, for example, or find some salary to get back up to at Chris Kirk. I think that Chris Kirk is probably the most appealing name in that range. Let's talk to about him and shift on to the current form of section because Chris Kirk, you know, is a guy who does have some course history. He's 10-5. I think we could have included him in either section. But Kirk, pretty interesting. And I think he's one of the highlights of a really good tier. So what do you see with Chris Kirk recently at 10-5? Yeah, I mean, like, again, he could have fit in the course form, but a little bit up and down here. Two missed cuts in his past four, but ultimately has four top 15s and seven tries. So he's got some upside, and that's always what you want to see. Floor is a myth. Unless you're the buoy John Rom, who is the unsinkable. But we haven't seen Kirk since he missed the cut at the players when he had a weak short game. I'm okay for giving missed cuts at the players any year, but especially this year. The ball striking has been good for him lately. And whenever he does pair that with like even okay putting, that's when he's had the high-end finishes. Namely, he's got three top 15s or had three top 15s leading into the players. Over the past three months, Kirk's sixth in Data Golf's true stroke scheme query, 25th or better in all three of those individual T-degree stats, 41st in putting. I think Kirk makes a lot of sense. He might honestly be the, if not for one other name in this range, just above Kirk, I feel like I would be more drawn to a balanced approach. I don't know if I can play a Rory Kirk and Gary Woodland. I don't know what that's going to look like for me, but with Laird and some other values, you know, it is possible that it's doable and I still like it. But I think Kirk is a standout. I would probably just rank him a little bit behind Gary Woodland this week. Okay. I feel like we might have a little bet brewing here because I'm betting against Chris Kirk, who's one of my favorite players of the week. No, I'm not. No, I'm not. That's going to Kirk. I want to offer you Gary Woodland versus Maverick McNeely. McNeely's 10-9, Woodland 10-8. I think I like McNeely more than you do. I like him more than Woodland. Will you take it? How many, how many fandal points will I be spotted for the egregious price or salary discrepancy of $100? It's about you, negative three. So I get three points. If I try, it's a classic GM. Oh, come at me, bro. So I like McNeely. Are you talking about him later in detail? Player picks, but not until then. So for me, he's putting really, really well. He has the hottest putter relative to expectation, according to my regression data. Other than that, though, everything looks good. I would just expect him to co-off a little bit. Meanwhile, we have Gary Woodland, who's longer off the tee, has better iron play. Also a better expected putter, just not putting as hot. So I'll take that even though, again, I wouldn't talk to anyone out of McNeely, but I like Gary Woodland plenty this week. Okay. So I have Maverick McNeely. You have Gary Woodland. I would say that Kirk is also probably above Woodland for me. Let me check that first. Actually, I don't know. I'd probably go Woodland above Kirk. But I think that Kirk was in the zone where he's justified in being near that top option. So if I need a $300 cushion from Woodland down to Kirk, I'll take that. I would also say that Kirk is probably a step up for most of the guys in the lower 10,000 range. I do love Jonathan Vegas, and we'll talk about him in a second. So full respect to him. Okay. We're talking about Kirk compared to Strylman, Hoffman, Palmer. I think Palmer's solid, but I think I'd rather go Kirk over him. So if I can't get back up to Woodlands or McNeely, totally on board with Kirk. And I think that I would also try to get back up there if I'm in the lower 10,000 range. I'd rather reconfigure, but to get back up to Kirk rather than them. Do we agree with that? Yeah, I'd rather get to Kirk than Palmer. Okay. I'd probably be fine just dropping down to list for that amount of savings of $600. Sure. But just to heads up, a Rory Woodland Kirk start leaves me $8,900 for final three. That's not the worst. I don't love that, but it's not the worst. Yeah. So let's talk about Johnny Vegas, who you blatantly disrespected earlier on. We were on Vegas last week, and he pulled through with a really solid fourth place finish. It was his seventh straight event, being positive in true strokes games. It was his ninth time in 10 events doing that, dating back to the Houston Open last year. It also puts Vegas up to eighth in strokes game off the tee, eighth in approach, and fourth in birdies are better game per fantasy national overs past 50 rounds. Vegas is 10-4. It's not, you know, just the Corralis and a really rough field where he's done well. So it's not some soft field only thing. So I think that Vegas is actually pretty solid. I think I'm looking at that 10,000 range. I go Kirk won Vegas too, and I think Vegas is a strong two in that range. How are you doing him in what you think is a good tier? So what were those salaries? Vegas is 10-4, Kirk is 10-5. Yes, I know that. You cited a specific range where you ranked them. I said big 10,000 range. I think, yeah, whatever. Like below, like lop off Woodland. So you're saying 10,000. Yeah, I mean Kirk's the obvious number one there. I think. I think Vegas is a solid two. It's between him and like Adam had when I would guess at 10-7. I'd probably go Palmer three just for the savings. This is a good course fit for Palmer. Can just like launch it. His putting should not be nearly as bad as it has been. He should be about baseline, but has been really rough from with his lag putting. So I'm probably going to put Palmer third, but that's more of a salary saving indication because realistically I'm not going to play Adam had when at 10-7. That's too high of a salary. So you're saying you wouldn't give me a Palmer versus Vegas head to head? No, I like Vegas more straight up, but I think that I'm going to need some salary savings eventually and I can't play them all. Okay, so let's talk about some salary savers. One of whom is Mita Perrera. He is $93. I think we were both on Mito this week. What puts you on him? We're on a lot of the same guys. Mito already bet him pretty instantly and his salary is way too low for me at 9,300. So there's a lot of savings baked into this, but she has a lot to do with his recent form. T-27 at Valspar did miss the cut at the players with awful putting, but again, I don't even care really about miss cuts at the players, especially this year. T-30 at Honda, T-15 at Genesis before that. Those are just great results for someone with a salary of 9,300 and in total, Perrera is either missing cuts or finishing top 30 and you'll take that in your DFS tournament lineups and I probably will just go there for cash games anyway because the salary is low. For me, Perrera ranks 92nd percentile in my adjusted T-degree data over the past year, which accounts for field strength and recency. He's pretty long off the tee. He's expected to have some putting regression in his favor. I am locking in Mito even in my head-to-heads with the up and down sort of missed cuts or top 30s. I think he's too good of a play at that salary to pass up. I think you look at the finishes for Mito. You're seeing what you may see is like a perceived lack of upside, but I think that what that kind of does overlooks like that he has the components necessary for upside. Like you mentioned putting regression. If he gets putting regression on top of keeping his good ball striking, that's upside. Like that's what that is. So you could look at the form and say, okay, he's not going to like, or look at the finishes and say, okay, he's not going to be a top 15, top 10 type guy. But I think that like that actually is within his range of outcomes personally. So I think Mito works for all formats. Definitely a guy I will be using. Like in a cash game, I'm trying to maximize like under salaried guys. And I think that Mito is pretty high on that list. So to me, I think that he'll be one of the first people I put in there. Are you yawning or are you going to yell at me? No, I, so if I mean, if anyone doesn't know, I published a piece on numberfire.com about putting regression, which basically says we can learn a lot about how guys should pot longterm base and how good they are from within 15 feet. So a lot of what I'm looking at is putting from within 15 feet because you can't control. And it's a very small sample with longer putts overall. But I'm again, Mito Pereira, one of the reasons I liked him is he's set for some putting regression and is actually in the 95th percentile and putting from within 15 feet. But Cameron Champ, 84th percentile. We know he's long off the tee. We know he's got some upsides. So he's 120 to one to win on Fandals sportsbook. I might take a look at CamChamp, 8502. That might be a value play that I talked myself into by Thursday. And I might just take a stab on some CamChamp bet. OK, I like it. Maybe not. Maybe top 10. Maybe top 10. OK. Top. Just check out the whole top 10. I'm so turned off of top 10. I know you are. Yeah. I'm out. I'm out for that reason. I'm out. Let's talk here about Alex Smalley. Smalley was our boy last week. Came through with a runner up finish. That was pretty solid. No, no, no. He didn't come through because I bet him he was a win bet for me. And he came runner up and as you eloquent get the each way. He's a loser. Yeah. He didn't win. He's a loser. Do you mean first or last? Sorry. Maybe if he were Alex Biggie, instead of Alex Smalley, wouldn't have happened. Wouldn't have happened. He's still Smalley though. Let's talk about him. I wish we were stuck to the no jokes. After that one. Are they actually jokes? Do they count? They just seem bad. They're just bad. I think that's what they actually are. But we got to side of Smalley. This guy we can turn to the tougher fields at a much lower salary this week. Smalley, you know, there's no shot tracker, but he was good when he just for the field last week. He was a plus 2.25 total strokes game per round. According to data golf, he's now at 0.44 per round over the past six months, which is not bad for 87. So new context for Smalley going to a tougher field, but also a lower salary. What's your read on him for this week? Yeah, I like him again. Sticking with him. Good ball striker. You know, one of the issues that we can run into is again, like weaker field stuff. But if you can adjust that pretty well, get a good context. And even with that, he's still a pretty good player. So I'm in on Smalley this week for sure. Okay. So let's move now to what the bookmakers are saying about this week with Rory McElroy, the clear betting favorite. He has seven to one. If Andrew Sportsbook, Jordan Speed is also in the tier of his own. He's 11 to one. We got Corey Connors, the 16 to one. Hideki Matsuyama is 17 to one. Abraham answered 21 to one, followed by Bryson DeChambeau, 24 to one. We're going to get down to Seawool Kim at 31 to one. Adam Hadwin and Keegan Bradley are 33 to one. We got Gary Woodland, Maverick McNeely and Chris Kirk. Brown at the top group. They are all 34 to one. So let's talk about Rory and Speed, because they're the one of our favorites here. McElroy seven to one, Speed 11 to one. How are you handling them this week in DFS? In DFS, it's Rory is the closest thing to a lock for me that I can get to. He's going to be my top player pick. It's not going to be Contrarian or anything like that, but I do think that you can't really make a case for anyone else by comparison. It just, he's long off the tee. Just the best long-term player in my model comfortably. I think he's about 0.4 shots better than Hideki accounting for recency, 0.3 about, and then Hideki is like 0.3 over Corey Connors. So it's a pretty big gap between everyone over Hideki. And if Hideki is not a hundred percent, we can be looking at, you know, and again, you don't can't just add up these and say this is how these guys are going to perform. But we're looking at a pretty big jump for Rory over the field is in terms of a starting point. He's putting, his short game is actually pretty good right now, but he's not overperforming with the putting. So I think Rory is a standout. As for Spieth, I'll be rooting for him. I don't think I'll end up playing him though. I think he'll be a little bit too chalky. Yeah. I mean, obviously you got the win here last year. That's going to help some things. There's the pre-Augustin narrative for Jordan Spieth. He's had spikes recently, like a pebble beach. Like that was a while ago now. It was early February, but like he did play really well there in finished second. But since then hasn't been bad. The approach play has been back, which are like partially back at least, which is good. So like, I don't think it's like a terrible idea to look at him just because running to form, you know, knows this course really well, stuff like that. But I don't like, I think that for me personally, it's pretty easy to go Rory one. I'd rather take a shot. If I'm going to take a shot on someone who might not be like perfect right now, I'd rather go with Hideki over to Spieth. Do you agree with that? Yeah. I'm also looking at Bryson though. If that's the angle we're going for. No, no, no, no. No. Where it's not penalizing to miss fairways. Like I, like, No. This is just phenomenal short range putter too. So this is just me. The fact that Hideki is here tells me that he's, like the back is not a, as big of an issue as like it. What? Why are you laughing? I know the players is a lot of money, but like you think about it from his perspective, he's trying to defend the masters coming up in a couple of weeks, wants to rest up. I don't think he'd be here if like, if the back were like, like truly, truly terrible. That's what that's not a justification in cash games, but like for tournaments that allows me to like, talk myself into it pretty easily. I just laughed because you would think if Paul Casey shows up to the WGC match play that he's going to play and he did, I think those are different circumstances because the level of DGAF at a certain point can get a little high with Mr. Casey. Oh, look, I'm with you. I think there's a clear game theory standpoint that we can just cling to. Now I thought when I opened up fan share sports that we'd see a lot of tags on Rory. We're seeing a lot on Chris Kirk already. We don't see any on Rory yet. So I know it's early in the week, but we are seeing some numbers populate. None on Rory seems a little peculiar. Spieth has one tag. I know this will all change by Thursday, but we got to imagine that the chalk at the top includes Rory, probably Corey Connors, and then Spieth to some degree, right? That's kind of makes the most sense based on everything. Yeah. So you could pivot extremely easily with Hideki with Bryson, which sounds like you're not into. I would take a chance based on the course fit for Bryson. He's not a good match play player, so I'm not worried about what happened last week. The fact that he played last week is telling. And yet you don't give that same credit to Hideki. Curious. Curious. That's all I'll say. I think it's different. Sure it is. Sure it is. Which golfer's odds have shifted most since things opened yesterday? There's been a good bit because everyone's started off a little steep for me, but we've seen some shuffling both ways. We've seen Abraham answer move from 22 to 21 to 1 on Fandall Sportsbook, which I know is small, but it's significant if other people are lengthening. Chris Kirk, 37 to 34. Ricky Fowler, 65 to 55. Same case for Davis Riley. Mito Pereira, our guy, 80 to 55. Love that. K.H. Lee, who's also our guy this week, and Doug Guim, 80 to 75. And then Lee Westwood, who is not too old. I just want to clarify that. Dylan Fratelli, Matthew Niece Smith, Martin Laird, 120 to 90. Those guys have all had their odds lengthened. Okay, so we've not talked about Ricky yet. Or Shorten. Sorry. Yeah, yeah. So Ricky, you talked about him at the beginning is like, hey, he has to qualify for the five for the Masters, got that narrative. Betting odds are shortened. Both striking numbers are not like hideous. He's had decent poor success here. Personally, I'm probably not going to get there, but I did want to ask at least any inclination for you towards old Ricky Fowler. I think he is at his salary of 96. He is perfectly salaried for some of the struggles are less glaring right now. He's going to be someone who could make or run. He could be someone who misses the cut. I don't really see a huge difference between him and like Davis Riley right now, or any other names in this range, aside from Mito, who's way better right now. So again, I don't think Ricky is like over salaried. I think it's fair, but I'm not going to be on Ricky this week. I will root for him if he's in contention though. Yeah. I mean, it's similar to Spieth. We're like, we're not, might not use them, but we can still root for them either way. Which lower salary golfer is? I want to talk quickly about four guys whose odds of length and just because it's noticeable. Hideki 14 to 17. That's why I said length and because I was going to transition and then I didn't. Hideki 14 to 17. So take that, Jim. Bryson 20 to 24 is to take that. Take that Brandon. Tony Finaw 31 to 36 and your guy, Charlie Hoffman 31 to 46. Let's not, let's not do this. Charlie scoffman, I think is what the, the betting public is saying here. Yeah. Yes. I just wanted to note those, because those were some bigger ones towards the top of the, of the board who might. We have not even discussed like, if you were listening to this podcast, had it all to the field, you would not know that Tony Finaw is in the field until you mentioned that he lengthened. Yeah. And the wild part is for how bad of a putter as we know he is. He should, my data says he should be worse because he's had some luck from long range putts. So. I'm not going to ask you about Luke List in that regard. I know the answer and I don't want to know. I don't want to hear it in. Nope. Nope. Don't open your mouth. I heard you breathing in. Just don't do it. Don't do it. Let's talk about some lower salary. I will not talk about some lower salary golfers that have to stand out to me. Kyung Hoon Lee, 75 to one at 9,000 on Fandle. A cluster at 80 includes Lucas Glover, Charles Howe, the third and Chad Ramey. At 90 to one we have Martin Laird, Matthew Nie Smith, Dylan Fratelli, Lee Westwood, and a hundred to one Alex Smalley, Kramer Hickok, Troy Merritt, Matt Jones, Brian Stewart, Honor Bon Lahiri, Takumi Kanaya and Min Woo Lee. So you lingered on Kyung Hoon Lee's name for a second. Does that mean you have interest in KH Lee this week? Love him. Love him. Love him. Okay. He's my player picks. So that's good. Me too. We talked about Martin Laird already. Chad Ramey coming off a win in a very tough field last week. So I'm saying Major Esk. Like Corrales, Augusta. I don't know. Same thing. Same difference personally. Any interest in Ramey for you this week? Good irons. Not necessarily super long off the tee. Can make birdies though. I think he's fine. I think he's fine at 8900. But if I were to pick between like Chad Ramey and Martin Laird, I think I'm just going to go with Martin Laird. Okay. I would do the same there as well. I would pick KH Lee above Ramey too. I would put Lee... Where do you put him? Relative to Laird? Because I have a tough time with that one. Kind of Lee. Yeah. Probably above Laird by a tinge. Okay. I'd agree with that too. Let's talk about the weather for this week. Wind speeds will increase a bit during the day on Thursday. They've started around five miles per hour. Gradually arrives for around nine miles per hour in the later afternoon. There's more wind on Friday though with the afternoon waves specifically dealing with it for the entire round. The earlier golfers will have a bit of a reprieve, but the end of their round will be blustery as well. So to me, I think the net winner of all this is the late Thursday, early Friday golfers. They'll likely have the lowest aggregate wind speed of the event. You don't need to stack tee times here. It's not that drastic, but I think you can bump up those teeing off later on Thursday as smidge weekend is pretty chill. So no need to include wind splits, but just a slight tweak for the first two rounds. With that said, let's dive into our player picks here for the Valero Texas Open. Brandon, who are you targeting for this week? Over on fanduel.com. Basically all the guys you are. We have four or six overlap here, but Rory is the top play. I think that he can't really get away from that, and I don't think I need to get too cute if people are going to be a little bit drawn towards Spieth or Corey Connors perhaps, but I would assume Rory is going to be 40% rostered, give or take. But the course setup should fit Rory who doesn't have the course form that others have toward the top with those recent winners of Spieth and Connors, but super long off the tee. Pretty good short game right now. Top 40 on the season in stroke skiing around the green and putting, but he's not over putting, which is what you want to see. There's just no way I'm not playing Rory against you on our head to head tournaments. Maybe a different conversation, but if anything, I probably just plan to be an overweight on Rory. Me too. And I think that the key thing here is you mentioned the short game getting better, and we had talked about that, and we're like, okay, it's weird because the short game is getting better, but for some reason the irons weren't ticking, but now they are. Like you look at this past two events, he's gained 2.8 strokes on approach in both of those. So if you give me Rory with an improved short game and irons that aren't quite like peak McElroy, but very good, that's the recipe for him just taking a blowtorch to people. So I think that Rory, like you said, the first guy you lock in for a cash game, he is a guy I want to be overweight on tournaments and will happily do so. And I think that he is the top step for this week. Who is the second stud you're targeting on Pendle for this week? Gary Woodland. This was a long conversation for me between Woodland and Chris Kirk, but I landed on Woodland. I think he'll be a little bit more forgotten because Chris Kirk's been talked about a good bit. Woodland though, 10-8 is a little bit higher salary than Kirk too, so that should maybe drive down a little bit of his popularity, but I think he might be close to back for what we know of Gary Woodland and if nothing else, at least relative to this field. Finish T6 here a year ago, has three top 25s in his past four starts, including two top fives, missed the cut at the players, T21 outside of that as well. 91st percentile distance, 14th percentile in fairways gain, meaning he should gain some leverage based on what he does off the tee relative to what this course allows you to do. The irons are there, pretty solid putter. I think Gary Woodland is, someone I'm going to kind of play my flag in this week. The only problem with Woodland is he's guaranteed to be dusted by Maverick McNeely because of our head-to-head bets. Let's talk about McNeely here as my second player pick in the upper range. He can have some struggles in approach, but he can also spike there and the rest of his game is really good. McNeely gained 3.8 strokes in approach his most recent time out. It was his third time gaining at least 2.5 there over his past seven events. He's now to 39th in approach over the past 50 rounds. He is also 17th off the tee and 10th in birdies are better gained. McNeely, very good putter. He has been awesome on Poa in a very small sample, but I can just kind of study here at 10-9 and again, guaranteed to beat Woodland at 10-8. Disregarding the fact you like Woodland more, what are your thoughts on Maverick McNeely for this week? Yeah, I like what I see from him. It's really an all-around game right now that is something that we've kind of been waiting for with McNeely. It doesn't have any red flags that I'm looking for aside from scrambling, which is, again, not a key stat for me, also not the best stat, just for a lot of reasons. But for me, I mean, it's the fact that I think he's riding a little bit too hot of a putter, so I'm just at a salary of 10-9, willing to take a stat back, maybe go towards someone like Gary Willender, Chris Kirk, but also, again, I got to clarify, there's a difference between inferring someone and straight-up saying, I think Maverick McNeely's a bad player. I don't think he's a bad player. You said McNeely shouldn't even be on the tour. That's what I heard. Did you not say that I misremember that? Says the guy who never listened to me anyway. I don't think you get to play that card. I might have. I don't know. I sometimes listen to you, but then lie about it. I don't want to give you credit for good points. That's usually what it is. Anyway, let's move to the mid-range and we actually have the same two player picks for our mid-range picks. Those two guys are Mito Pereira and Luclis. Would you rather talk about Mito or Luclis? I'll talk Mito because I actually think he's... I would rather play Mito at 99 than list at 93. What? Like, if you swapped them... Like, right now, I have Mito above Luclis because, obviously, salaries are there. You're saying you just prefer Mito over Luclis straight up is what you're saying? No, because that would imply that we're factor in salary. Like, if I have one... You preferred Mito at 99 over Luclis over 93. I said I would. I would. I don't know what you're saying. Just talk. Just talk about Mito. If I have 9900 left for my final golfer... You're going to leave 600 on the table? Yeah. What? Just talk to me about Mito. I'm done. I'm done here. I quit. I bet Mito, like, straight away when I saw him this week at the number that I got him. He's long off the tee relative to this field. Really good iron player. 95th percentile and adjusted iron play in my data over the past year. He's getting bet down now, but he wasn't posted there at the open. Top five putting regression candidate and ranks in the 95th percentile and putting from within 15 feet over the past 50 rounds on tour. Compare that to Luclis, who I don't know if he's ever made a putt longer than three feet. The thing is, he doesn't have to because he's drained it from the tee box, so it doesn't matter. He might. You never know. If next time Luclis gets a hole in one, he needs to come back to me, crawling back to me on your knees apologizing because it's going to happen. I will use Luclis until I can use him no more because his putting is hideous. It's bad, and it will stay that way. Over the past six months, he's at negative point A3, true stroke scheme putting per round according to data golf, in the field of 144 golfers. He's poop. Despite that, he ranks seventh in total true strokes gained in that span. Everything else is so good that it makes up for it. List finished 17th last year here, even without his approach game being fully on. At 99, he's too good for me to pass up. So I love Mito too. I would not take Mito over Luclis straight up personally, but you can if you want. I just think the list is great. I think they're both great. So I don't want this to make a Mito versus List thing, just saying, I think you're being disrespectful to our boy, despite also having him as a player pick. I just wanted to stress how much I like Mito this week. Let's move down to the value tier. Who do you have there? Why don't you tell me who I should have? I don't know, man. I got K.H. Lee. I love him this week, but so do you. Why don't you talk about him? Cause I took a preference in the mid-summer range. Yeah. So the approach play for Lee has not been good recently. He actually has not gained since the American Express. So five events stretch without gaining an approach. Despite that, he has made all five cuts. His streak of made cuts is now 11 events. He's done that by gaining off the tee in with his short game and he's not like Rory. I'm not saying that, but like it's similar where like long term, we know the approach play for K.H. Lee has been better than what he's been doing recently. So if the approach play bounces back at all, then K.H. Lee could be a really good option given what he's been doing elsewhere. So I'm okay making him, making that bet when his salary is 9,000. K.H. McElroy is what I'm hearing. I think that Rory Lee, no that doesn't work. Yeah, K.H. McElroy is better. You're right. I should never argue with you. You're right. You're right. You're right. It's other what 9 years to this. Probably. Just like kind of low upside consistency, but miss the cut at the Sanderson forums to the first event of the season, but made every cut since then. Just solid all around kind of like the, like a long toe griffin Sebastian Munoz of yonder. Yeah, I like that. I think that's a good way to put it. Okay. Who else do you like here in the value range besides K.H. Lee? Martin Laird. That shouldn't surprise anyone, but what also shouldn't surprise anyone is if Martin Laird can't putt this week. Just terrible with the putter 8th percentile longterm. Potential is really good though. It's very obvious. 90 second percentile and T to green play. The regression data says is putting should stay bad. So this isn't like a, it's got to get better eventually because it's not necessarily what, what the numbers say, but when are here good event form. And so long as he isn't like completely ice cold and missing like six footers consistently, there's, there's a path to upside here for Martin Laird at 88. I do like Laird a lot. I think that he's a solid cash game option. Very okay with him there. I also have interest in Troy Merritt. We have not discussed yet Merritt's, I think he has a good blend of floor and upside. Since the start of the season, the new season, he has made nine out of 12 cuts. One of the missed cuts was pretty much right on the number. He showed some upside by finishing fourth at Pebble Beach. Has some other quality finishes in there too. He's had seven top thirties. Merritt's pretty good all around player, decent ball striking, quality putting. I think he's got a good profile here for $8,600. We've not talked about Troy Merritt yet, Brandon. What does he read on him for $8,600? So I have him ranked at salary. I actually like top three between, very specifically between like 83 and 87. But with that, I have Alex Smalley above him. I have Pat Perez above him. And I also have Matthew Niece Smith above him. Even though the model has it there. I like Matthew Niece Smith this week at 85. The iron plays really, really good. Should have some putting regression. T3 at Valspar. I think I'd side with Niece Smith, and I know this isn't like, it's the fun, the funnest take to like listen to, but I see the case where Merritt, I just prefer some other guys. This isn't like a, you're, I don't know what you're talking about, recommending him kind of take. So. You're saying there's Merritt's to the thought that Troy Merritt's pretty good. I, My goal is making quick, I almost said that joke for you. But I, If it's obvious enough, we'll both take it and everyone will just groan. So I think that that's a positive. At least you know you're getting with the E-check fantasy podcast. Let's finish up here with some wind picks for the Valero Texas Open based on the current odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm going to lock in Maverick McNeely 34 to one as one of my bets. Anyone sending out to you immediately. Even though the numbers trending shorter, I still think for the sake of the show, I'll go with Mito at 55. Okay. So you have me to a prayer at 55 to one. I've got Maverick McNeely 34 to one. Um, I kind of feel like I should put my money where my mouth is and go with Hideki at 17 to one. Are you asking me? Kind of. I'm not asking you for your like, I'm just thinking and thinking. Um, okay. So I think my two options here. Johnny Vegas and Ducky Matsuyama. I'm going to go Hideki though at 17 to one. Um, okay. I'll propose a swap to you. Um, because these could be basically identical. You can have Hideki at 17 and McNeely at 34 and I'll go Connors at 16 and Woodland at 34 instead. Why? If you like Mito, why would you not go Mito? No, you're mad at me. No, no, no, no. You're mad at Mito or mad at me if Mito wins. I'm not, I'm not doing that. I know how this goes. I know this game. I played this game like you said for nine years. I'm not doing it. I'm not doing it. So quit asking. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. So you have Mito and who? I'll go Gary Woodland 34. Okay. So you have Woodland and Mito. I have Hideki and Mav as my two picks this week. I'm guessing Maverick McNeely. So I probably picked on the show this year previously, but whatever. He didn't show up in the, no, wait, you did AT&T at Pebble Beach. You took McNeely and Mito. Okay. Well, that makes sense. You took Mito at the Bermuda. Yeah. I think this makes sense. Okay. Before we send off the good people to fill out their comments, Brandon, any final words of wisdom for you for the Valero Texas Open? I think there's going to be some really easy ways to be different with, if you think Hideki's good to go, if you think Bryson might be good to go. Abraham answers 21 to one. And I don't think we've even mentioned his name aside from whenever you would have read off the odds. So you don't have to get too strange to get a little bit different, but we do have also have a good number of ways that we can play. I think that we can feel confident in too. So there's not a, even though there's a lot of overlap with you and like with our picks, that that's not, sometimes it feels like there's a lot of overlap with our picks and that the only picks that makes sense at salary, really not the case this week. So feel free to use the notes that we gave and spin them your own way. Or just throw them in the trash. That also works too. That is all that we have here for today for the Heat Check Fantasy podcast for the Valero Texas Open Bed as always. A quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Heat Check Fantasy podcast and the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcasts, search for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcasts. And while you're there, you'll like what you hear. Leave us a rating and review as well. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? I'm at Gadoula13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3. And I'm at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your DFS lineups. We'll talk to you once again next week for the Masters in Augusta. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.