 My name is Stephanie Sanic-Costrow and I want to welcome you to this event. Before we get started, I do want to remind you, if you could turn your phones to silent or stun, I'd really appreciate it, they do actually interfere a little bit with our mics up here. And I promise I'm not turning my thing on, this is the most expensive cheap wrist watch I've ever had, so this is going to keep me on time today. As I mentioned, I'm Stephanie Sanic-Costrow, I'm the acting director for the Homeland Security Encounter Terrorism Program here at CSIS, and I'm glad you're all here to talk about this topic. Both natural and man-made disasters are a pressing topic here in the United States, facing the Homeland Security Enterprise. As natural disasters like Hurricane Sandy continue to impact the United States, and as terrorists continue to attempt to strike within our borders, it's crucial to explore not only our immediate short-term response, but also the long-term coordinated efforts that are vital for building resiliency. Resilience is a topic that our program, Homeland Security Encounter Terrorism, has recently explored in depth. We had a series last year called the CSIS Pennington Family Foundation series on community resilience, which, as you can imagine, explored community resilience. But in essence, it was designed to examine the most effective means to strengthen resilience in disaster-prone areas. The series' content, including our recommendations to the Hill, to the executive branch and to the private sector, is all available on the CSIS website, and that includes my plug for our program. To continue that important conversation, today we are lucky enough to be enjoyed by Dr. Dane Egley for a discussion of his new book, Beyond the Storms, Strengthening Homeland Security and Disaster Management to Achieve Resilience. Dane brings with him extensive Homeland Security experience. Currently a national security advisor at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Dane spent much of his career as a Coast Guard officer. He served on the national security staff as a director for counterterrorism and as the president's advisor on hostages and global counter-narcotics policy, who's also a senior maritime advisor to the commander out at NORAD and U.S. Northern Command from 2006 to 2008. Dane, thank you for joining us today. Before we turn over to the audience for their questions, I'd like to ask you a few about your book and about around 4.30 or so, I will turn to the audience to pose some challenging questions to you. So to lead off, what was the genesis of this book? What prompted you to write it? What do you hope to achieve by having your thoughts out there? Well, I went to Johns Hopkins, not really knowing where this would lead. It's an organization which has been there for 70 years. It's a university-affiliated research center. They have gone after the toughest challenges in the country, winning the Cold War, putting a man on the moon, working a lot with the Navy, the Air Force. It was clear that they had a sharp focus already on cybersecurity. So when I came in two years ago, they made the mistake of asking me the question where I thought they should put a focus, and I said critical infrastructure. At the time, a lot of talk focused on critical infrastructure protection. So that's where we started, and we were bound and determined to let the research take us wherever it took us and try and make a difference. And I think that's what we're hoping to have will happen. To press you a little bit on that, what kind of difference? Who's your intended audience for this kind of book? Well, initially, we simply wanted to do the due diligence on the research. We wanted to go out and ask the question, where are we 12 years after 9-11? Where are we in these terms that are floating around in policy, whole of nation, public-private partnerships, community resilience? Even the term resilience itself, well-traveled. So our hope was to be able to distinguish ourselves and say, okay, where are we at? We read the books that started off, America is Vulnerable, Steve Flynn. We read Talib, The Black Swan, looked at Ramo, The Age of the Unthinkable, Zoli, Resilience, Why Things Bounce Back. And my reaction was, when I read those books and you ask what do we hope to make a difference, I would just start off by say, the subtitle for The Black Swan is, The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Well, if you look at the weather patterns and look at the trends, these things are probable, they're not improbable. We need to look at them differently. Ramo said, Age of the Unthinkable, which was why the New World Disorder constantly surprises us. But we need to move from being surprised to expecting these things and not being surprised. And then Zoli, Why Things Bounce Back, our observation was that things weren't necessarily bouncing back. So we found ourselves looking at this issue from a different angle and saying, how could we make a difference? So, being a applied physics lab, we have a bias towards collecting the data, doing rigorous analytics, and having a quantitative impact at the front end. And understanding how decision makers can make better decisions in a resource scarce environment. You've mentioned sort of how resilience has been pervasive, sort of in the vernacular and in conversations lately. Why is resilience such a hot topic right now? I mean, we see it on the hill, we see it in series like the one that we had, but also ones that are elsewhere. Why now? What has triggered something in people's brains to think, right, we need to work on resilience? Well, I mean, if you look at the world of athletics, I see coaches be interviewed and they go, our team was resilient. We were able to take a hit and keep going. So, this generation of leadership, whether it's on Capitol Hill, in the private sector, at the state or local level realizes that it's inevitable that we're going to be faced with a level of complexity and uncertainty that we have never seen before. So, these are not outliers. 9-11 and these active shooters, these, the effects of climate change, the demographic changes for the first time since 1950, our large cities have the migration of people moving inward. Not outward. There are some very significant inflection points, which I think our culture, this generation, my teenagers, have come to realize that something has to change. The words preparedness, readiness, prevention, protection, they're saying something's got to be different. Now, resilience, I think, has a spot in there because what it allows them to do is say there's something for everybody. That's interesting because I also find in talking to everyone from the Hill to the executive branch to think tanks at academia, is there a common definition of what resilience is? Let me see your smile already. Because I've found that everyone brings their own, say, baggage to the game, right? You know, I was in this situation or I saw this happen and we weren't resilient, we didn't bounce back. What, in your book, how do you define resilience? That's a great, great question. Well, after waterboarding myself for two years, working on this book, I was reflecting on my career, working with people like Jim Loy and Thad Allen. And they kind of challenged us during my time in the Coast Guard and even in the interagency, that oftentimes it's not either or rigid definition. It's an asymmetric definition for an asymmetric world. What I mean by that is I was briefing at the Pentagon and at another large intelligence organization and I was stopped by a room of SESs and they said that. That definition, what's your definition? And where we've come down on this is really if you take the policies, PPD 8, PPD 21 from the White House and then you work your way through the states and you go to the mayors of our small communities, here's a definition that we've landed on that I think has the research, the empirical data has brought us there. That is anything you do before, during or after an event which is inevitable in any, in any area because resilience is disaster agnostic that will allow you to better withstand and recover your operations, whatever they are. So we really go very broad, go very flexible and agile because that's what we're gonna have to do. We're gonna have to look at some of the non-traditional ways that we can be more able to react. It may be somewhat contrarian as we were talking earlier. If you have a storm like Sandy come into the Staten Island area or the New Jersey barrier islands, New York, Long Island barrier islands, do you just continue to bring in the Army Corps of Engineers last open that same channel? You may not. Do you just rebuild and put them on stilts and go higher? That may not be the best way to do it. So I think in the book, by the way, I have some back there. Admiral Allen said something in the forward which is, I think is very significant. He said, no one private or public entity can accomplish this. So there is no one silver bullet on Capitol Hill legislation that will allow us to understand the complexity of this issue. There is no one wealthy city. Mayor Bloomberg did some very good things after Sandy and two governors. But it's gonna take more than the private or public individuals. It's gonna take collective action. I think this is a very complex area because you are dealing with so many players. You're not just dealing with the interagency such as it is here in D.C. But you're dealing with 54 governors and territorial governors. You're dealing with city and municipal. You're dealing with local. And then you have to layer on top of that private sector which in critical infrastructure is everywhere, the private sector. Now you and I talked a little bit about in some places they may own 90 to 95% of the critical infrastructure but in other areas only about 50 or so percent of it. So when you talk about resilience to the private sector, knowing that their interests generally are to maintain operations just as any mayor would but also knowing that they have a bottom line to consider, how do you approach the topic of resilience with them? Profit and loss. I spent 33 years in the service. I did not deal with profit loss a whole lot. If you're in the public sector, oftentimes we want you not to be distracted by that. You wanna deploy, you wanna serve your nation but here's the issue. We have to become far more engaged with the private sector on profit loss. We have to make the case for a value proposition, the return on investment that they will see. After Hurricane Andrew, the number two insurance wise, disaster that we've had, GEICO no longer did mortgage insurance. It's just a matter of cash flow. In the insurance industry, the number one industry in the world is private insurance, three trillion. In the US it's the largest, it's 1.2, 1.3. Where are they on this? We have to get smart on this. It's gonna be the place where it's gonna be the hardest but I think as you allude to, Stephanie, we're gonna have to engage the private sector now. I mentioned the insurance industry, we mentioned legislation, that's gonna be important but the private sector is gonna have to see the incentive and we have some great examples in the international community. We cannot add another item to the family budget. We cannot add another item to it. So how do we go after those entities where a small to medium sized business actually begins to view resilience not as a foreign concept or an esoteric abstract idea or that the army or the civil engineers say give you a four to one ratio but rather I am gonna see an advantage to this. If you're a realtor, you're gonna take the people to look at houses in a neighborhood that has the ability to keep the power on, where they've cleared the trees from the power lines, where they've done some of these issues on wastewater treatment and even in that county or that borough they've begun to do some things that reflect a resilient mindset. Well that sounded a little bit like some recommendations already coming out so let me ask you a little bit about your book and your conclusions and recommendations. Where does the nation go from here as of today, January 8th? What steps can various actors take to become more resilient or to increase the discussions about resilience? So if critical infrastructure is the sin quantan of our livelihood, it is the essential ingredient for us to live the way we live in our society. We're gonna have to first of all look at the issue of what kind of investment are we making? We are under investing across the air, land, sea, space, cyber world in a way that is gonna have to change because of the industrialized nations in Europe, the average percentage of GDP that they invest in infrastructure is around five to 6% in Europe. China invests 9 to 10% of their GDP infrastructure in the United States, it's around two to 2.5, somewhere in there over the past 10 years. So first of all, we are a nation of free riders. We basically wake up in the morning, whether you're the local police chief or in the transportation sector, whichever of the 16 critical infrastructures you're in, you wake up and you say, it's gonna be there. I pull out my smartphone, the GPS signal is gonna be there. So the assumption, the mindset in our culture where we assume it's gonna be there, this public good, which I think resilience is, is gonna have to change, and it's not just gonna be in appropriations and authorization, it's gonna go down to all levels of our society where they realize this is an investment we need to make. So we've lost track of the life cycle costs of our infrastructure. So my other big point would be this, and we can go into this area of questions, but if you look at the Census Bureau, the Department of Commerce does some phenomenal gathering of statistics. The economic census contains information which I think is sobering on this issue of resilience. We have 11 mega communities in this country. If you take the metropolitan statistical areas, MSAs, as part of the economic census, there's about 370 of them, over 50,000 population, and you start to map and gain an understanding of where is our economy anchored? What are the arteries, the essential ligaments of our economy? And what you find are these 11 mega communities. Now, we have 90,000 flood maps at FEMA. We wanna understand where the water flows and how the tributaries affect flooding. In Lycoming, Pennsylvania, they look at those flood maps carefully because they are near the Susquehanna River. We have soil maps. We're 200 years' worth of information for farmers to better know how to work the crops and the content of the soil. We have canopy maps so we know where to put the power lines and we map our brains so we know how to better take care of our body. Have we done the mapping of the dependencies and interdependencies of those mega communities to gain an understanding of what I would call a risk map or a process map for those mega communities. That's where we see the biggest breakthrough and to that end, to answer your question, come back to what you ask, we at Johns Hopkins were basically told after we did the book by leaders of the nation, some of whom are here today. That's great. You've admired the problem. You've codified the problem. You have interviewed the problem. What are you gonna do about it? And the answer is we're gonna operationalize resilience. So we put together a report that puts a framework together and we are actually going into a couple of the key ports and we're gonna start collecting the data, some of which is, much of which is already there and beginning to model and bring the quantitative piece to the qualitative and actually determine the impact so that we can go out to leaders and equip them with a decision support tool, various models anchored to the research in the economic sense. So we've landed on the economic issue. Well, it's funny that you mentioned free writerism in that, our studies have shown that some 40% of small businesses impacted by a natural disaster. And I'm assuming this may be true for man-made disasters, but 40% of them don't return. And they cite, well, I had insurance, but that insurance isn't working for me. If you look at places like Christchurch in New Zealand, still recovering from their earthquake years later because of insurance holdup. Now it seems to me that a lot of people out, I'll admit it, my parents, look it and go, hey, we have the necessary insurance, we will be fine, we can rebuild. But as you stated in the, as we discussed in the back room, insurance is oftentimes rebuild it where it was, the way it was. They will do everything necessary to bring you back to that state in which you were vulnerable to begin with. And so I think in addition to being free writers, a lot of folks think about resilience and think they're actually covered in, but we've seen time and again, they're just not. And so it could take more PPDs maybe, but also legislation and put it in statute and codify it and say, here are some recommended steps or here are some protections for you that you might not have thought about. My concern really is for the citizenry, but also the small businesses, particularly maybe in that place that you mentioned in Michigan, I'm not sure. But what has been the reaction so far to your book? And it's been out a little while. Have your thoughts, your analysis been well received? Yes, I'm the author, I'm a little biased. All disasters essentially are local. They have arteries that go back to a local situation. Because of globalization, no one's out of the game. It's all hands on deck. Everybody is affected by this. No one is immune from the cascading effects which come along with this great technology that we have. Simultaneously, with all the advantages of speed, accuracy, transparency, have come these single points of failure. So we have a situation where the reason I think it's gotten traction is because whether it's the mayor in my little town of Riverside, about 800 people, or it's Craig Fugate at FEMA. I think that we have common ground here where a tree can fall on a power line in Cleveland. And because of software errors, human error, and globalization and cyber efficiencies that we spend 48 hours without power in the entire Northeast in 2003, and a lot of Canada. We have a situation where Fukushima can occur in Japan, and because of the need for pigmentation from a sole source and the supply chains that we have, and outsourcing these single points of failure shut down our auto industry. You can have a situation in the Gulf of Mexico where a major shipyard is ready to reopen and get back to work. 40%, 50% of the workforce is gone. Not because they're not healthy or there's a pandemic, but because they can't get their kids to the daycare center that's been affected by Katrina. So the complexity of these interdependencies, we would argue that when you start to map those mega communities, or you begin to focus in a new way on how the 16 critical infrastructures interact, we would now begin to say, we understand the power grid as about as resilient as they can afford to be perhaps. The communications, the transportation, the water, the banking, how do they interact with one another in this complex web of global supply chain, demographics where 23 of our 28 most populated counties are on the coastline. They're out there with their chin right out there waiting for the hurricane that's coming next hurricane season. So we have the effects of climate change we haven't really talked about, but regardless of where you stand on this issue, you can't ignore cold weather that comes in, sets records, 118 year records in Baltimore this week. Typhoon Haiyan brought wind velocity that we've never recorded before. It happened in the Philippines, but again, due to globalization and also the uncertainty of future weather patterns, you have to be, you know, you have to be, you can no longer remain in your own world and not pay attention. In 2011, it was the first time that we ever opened all the spillways for the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. All three of them were opened first time ever. In 2012, we had record drought across the nation. 60% of the country was in some way affected by these droughts. This past year, the last two years, we've had wildfires, unprecedented, that went from forest fires, not unusual, but these blew into areas that turned into an urban fire. So I think if you take the collection of all those things, the book kind of arrived at a time when people are ready to say, there's gotta be a better way. We cannot continue to have a proliferation. There's been a proliferation of doctrine, policy, guidance, documents that frame the problem, that shape the landscape, that admire the problem. What we have not done is that breakthrough to map the critical interdependencies in our metropolitan areas and then do the analytics that will allow us to model it and make decisions in a prioritized way such that we could optimize our resilient decisions in a resource scarce environment. Look, the grant money is gone. We spent $34 billion in Uasi grant money. That money has receded. The FEMA grant subsidies are receding. So it's not just the 2008 housing bubble and the after effects of that, but the demands of our infrastructure overwhelm any budget that we could come up with. So what are you left with? By the process of elimination, you're left with taking oftentimes a process or a non-material, low-cost solution to be more resilient, which we can talk more about. Yeah. That also comes into play. That's a good segue to public-private partnership and what is the government responsible for and what are areas in which they can ask to give that profit motive argument a chance with private counterparts? Public-private partnerships are hard. It's an easy, it rolls off the tongue very easily. What I would say, and I don't want to take too much time on this unless people are interested, I would suggest that when something's really hard to do but essential, go to someplace where it's absolutely vital, it's critical to the local economy to function and regional resilience. So I'll offer one example if I can. As critical as LA-LB, Los Angeles-Long Beach is to our economy. 43 to 45% of all containers come through that port. If containers stop coming in there for whatever reason, some disruptive event or extreme weather. The shelves in Winamuck and Nevada and St. Louis are gonna start feeling it in three to five days. That's how fragile that supply chain is. However, those of us that have sailed the waters and worked with the maritime industry know that it won't take long for those ships to go elsewhere. They're gonna go to Vancouver, they're gonna go to Port Waimimi, they're gonna go other places. Same way with New York. So New York's number two on cargo and we are a maritime nation. We are an island nation dependent on maritime trade to the tune of 94 to 95%. So that's not insignificant. However, we could recover by shifting those ships to other ports. What we will not recover from is a place like Houston and Texas City where we have single point of failure for petrochemicals. If you approach any of the trucks that are delivering fuel today around Virginia, around Maryland and you ask that truck driver that's carrying hundreds of thousands of gallons, where did you come from? You can follow that trail basically back to a pipeline, back to Houston. And so therein is my exemplar for public-private partnerships. I have discovered two really effective public-private partnerships which were very hard to put together but it required a legal team, emergency planners, politicians, all to come together and say, we've got to make this work and it's got to have a positive return on investment and value proposition. And so I won't go into any more time on that. I probably should mention Los Angeles Long Beach. We have an impulse, Stephanie, in this country when bombers show up at the finish line of the Boston Marathon or they fly planes into buildings that we have a natural impulse to default to that which we've trained to do and that is shut down. But crime scene tape around the scene and force ourselves to collect the evidence for the crime. In Israel, a nation surrounded by threats, their motto is if we shut down economically or physically, the enemy wins. Or in our case, the disaster wins. So I would argue that we have the initial trauma of the attack, the terrorist event, the natural disaster and then we potentially amplify that with a second disaster and that is how we shut down the economy. So on this issue of resilience and where we've got attraction, I would have to say that we learned a lot. Port of LA did not shut down on 9-11 unlike the other ports in the country. They got the same order, the captain of the port got the same direction from Washington DC. They had done the resilient thinking, the resilient preparation beforehand. They had gone to the congressional delegation. They had gone to the local leaders across many different municipalities. You know, 83 different municipalities. They said to themselves, if a storm comes or a terrorist attack or anything that cascades into our area and we shut down, we lose. We go home without a job. It could be a secretarial strike or it could be a terrorist attack. So I think there's some very valuable lessons domestically and internationally that we can ask ourselves what did they do and catalog that and that's what we did 13 case studies in the book to try and illuminate the fact that this is not a lost cause but we're gonna have to have some empowered visionary political leaders who champion this cause and as you well know from your background, this is one of those several key issues that if it's important enough, we need to put someone in charge. Not just have an office on the national security staff and a few bills prepared on Capitol Hill. This is gonna have to be a serious focus where we realize in a post World War II, post 9-11, 21st century that we can no longer be free riders. On that happy note, let me turn it over to the audience. I would ask that you raise your hand and I'll recognize you if you could state your name and your affiliation if you have one and my last request is that you actually ask a question. You're free to make a couple of sentences of statement beforehand but please do ask our guest a question. So anyone? Sir here in the front row. There's a microphone coming to you. I'm Bob Hershey, I'm a consulting engineer in getting together a consensus on what's going to be done to prepare how does the internet come into the picture? How does the internet come into the picture? Well, I have a flashback that I can't get out of my mind. Last summer in Colorado Springs, one of those forest fires turned into an urban fire in Black Forest and we had to evacuate. So my wife called me and said, what are you doing in Washington? Get out here. And with three horses and chickens and dogs, she's saying this ranch needs to be evacuated. So my wife and I from our generation were operating on the normal cycle, the news cycle, the telephone cycle, the TV cycle. Meanwhile, our four teenagers are on the social network cycle. They are Twittering, texting, Facebooking. They are real time evacuating their teenage friends. They're doing it real time. We're still operating in our context. So I think that the degree of uncertainty and complexity that we're talking about, sir, is gonna require innovation, serious innovation, not just the internet, but all that comes with this innovation. I was recently up at the Cambridge Innovation Center between Harvard and MIT. There's 500 startups looking for a place to point their creativity and innovation. We have no lack of innovation, no lack of technology, no lack of a new generation of leaders who get this issue. So I think if I could answer the question, I think what I'd say is maybe this isn't a perfect metaphor, but if you look at the Arab Spring that's swept and is still arguably sweeping across the Middle East, one of the things that has fueled that, as I understand it, would be that just the awareness of this generation between the ages of 18 and 32, which is 60 to 70% of their population, is awareness. The internet has made them aware that they do not have to live under the same dictator as that their parents did, and they're not gonna take it. Well, in some ways, we have an issue here, we've gotta win. When World War II took place, this nation mobilized. We cannot afford to lose this battle. And empowered visionary political leaders of our nation rose up and articulated in a way that the population could understand it, and they got behind it. The book is an attempt to take some of this issue, and I think the internet is symbolic, in some ways, of where we could potentially go, and we have to win this. This is not an issue that's gonna go away. There is nobody that can sit at their computer and their cubicle and continue to work on their projects and be agnostic to this issue. I was recently speaking to a group in Austin, Texas, and some of the folks said, well, we're not seeing this. I mean, it sounds like it's a lot of policy stuff. It sounds like it's a lot of, where is this? I said, do you need your ATM today? Do you need your smartphone to work? Do you need to get on the phone and figure out where your kids are? Because when the earthquake took place in DC, what happened to the cell phones was the same thing that happened during Katrina. They were, the bandwidth was saturated and you could not call. You could maybe change your Facebook status. You could maybe do some texting. So a lot of ways to answer that question, but in my mind, all that's on the table, and we're gonna have to take a different approach. So I don't know if that. Please. Thank you. My name is Diana Hachabegovich and I am with the Department of Health and Human Services. We talk about, you talk about resilience, going back to normal, and you gave us a very broad definition, which I like, resilience, and everyone can plug under that definition. But did you talk in your book and I have a question, how can we measure our success? We have some lessons learned, but still we need to measure that in order to be successful. How are we gonna measure the success? So I'm gonna answer it hopefully with a little confidence in one sense, but I hope you also detect some humility because I think there's not only some definite anchor points that we can stand on, but I think there's a lot yet to be learned, I think in the exploratory sense. So let me start by where I think we can stand on the shoulders of some good work. When we did the book, we interviewed 50 odd people. We did 13 case studies. We went out and really looked at what had been learned, where there had been successes and so forth. So the first area of measuring success, I think, is the deterrent to the enemy. Our country, the largest cost is gonna be natural disasters, but we're traumatized and affected tremendously by these man-made events, these terrorists that are persistent, patient, and among us, active shooters or radicals. If we're more resilient and you subscribe to the definition that risk is a function of threat vulnerability and consequence, resilience brings all of those down. It brings the consequence down, it brings the vulnerability down, and indirectly begins to bring the threat down because as they see in Israel, outside Gaza, outside Lebanon, the enemy sees the futility of making an attack on your infrastructure or on your economy when you have a resilient posture, when you have a certain attitude, a certain framework. So if they see our pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to Alaska, 800 and some odd miles long, and they see how dependent we are on that, what we wanna do is have a measurable, visible, publicized situation whereby we would say to the public, in 48 hours we can restore this because we have a ready response team, and we show that, we demonstrate it, we publicize it. And that raises the confidence of our population, of our people, of our economy. It also is observed by the enemy and they see that if you hit that facility or that pipeline, we're gonna be back up in 48 hours or less. That's a measurable thing where we see in the intelligence world, some classified, some unclassified, where we know for sure that their objective is not just to fly planes into buildings and traumatize us, their goal is to have a long-term detrimental effect on our economy. Dr. Zawihiri has said that. In our response to Boston. So we can have a measurable of our success that way. And my second point would be more humble, more exploratory in that we have not compiled the data in a way that would allow us to make the kind of decisions we need. We do not have the models analytically. We haven't brought together the Opti Research Systems Engineers and all those disciplines, cross-discipline, cross-jurisdiction like we need to. We've looked, we've interviewed, we've gone out and we have found a handful of examples where quantitatively you can show the analytical rigor. But I would submit to you that that's where my book revealed the most opportunity to measure that. And I think we are being challenged by the leadership of the nation, the White House, the Department of Homeland Security, FEMA, the private sector leaders and even Johns Hopkins is saying quantify this, show us how we can measure success on it and it's gonna have to be in the economic, we're gonna have to show direct economic impact. Cause that's where the profit loss piece of this is at. The private sector who owns and operates and governs the infrastructures are operating day in and day out on profit loss. I think if I could, we've talked a lot about metrics here cause I don't know if any of you know him but Dr. Anthony Cordesman sits upstairs near us and he's all about metrics and measuring things. And he often says to first take a snapshot assessment of where you are and then think about the tools you have at your disposal. What does resilience mean to a port to whatever area of critical infrastructure you're looking at. And then you can start coming up with metrics but it does take that initial groundwork which I think is what you often talk about or you've said earlier is what people like to admire and discuss but it's not really taking hold. So from a metrics perspective, it's difficult. I think everything Dane has said has been right on point but from my perspective it always, you have to take a snapshot of where you are right now and then you can figure out where your priorities lie. So I just wanted to add that a little bit. Did you wanna respond? I mean, I would just amp second that that the risk mapping that I mentioned earlier, the mapping of the terrain is looking at your existing situation. Because what we've done too often, Stephanie, is if you get the money and you go out and buy a Humvee or a proximity suit or some sort of gadget and toys that you like, is it coordinated regionally? Well, not really. We tend to go to what we would like indigenously to our unit. But if you back up and say what if I mapped and understood the interconnections of my current terrain as I currently exist blue sky before the event, before the stressor. That's really what I hear you saying which I think we're in agreement on to collect that data and understand your current dependencies and interdependencies. So we can get as many questions in as possible if we can have this gentleman in the second row followed by the gentleman right behind him We'll take two questions at once. Just to get the maximum number answered. First of all, compliments, Dr. Egley, on a wonderful presentation with very thought provoking ideas. I'd like to recap two of those ideas and then ask two questions that are very much interrelated. The recap first starts with the definition of resilience which I believe can be termed the ability to resume or recover operations, whatever those are. And you implied that that high level operations are dependent on a hierarchy of lower level dependencies all the way down to the individual, the private partner, the government, everybody. So that's that hierarchy. The second recap is that you said the nature of vulnerabilities and threats are evolving. So now the questions. First of all, if I asserted that this business of mapping and modeling is too complex to really do, what would you have to say about that and how might you attack the complexity of that problem? And second, if you were able to map and model, analyze and prescribe an optimal use of resources in the wake of some event, who would direct that? Does the government, the central government, for example, have the ability to redirect the flow of ships at sea to different ports? Or is there some kind of self-organizing mechanism that will magically appear? And then, gentlemen, behind. Thank you, Dr. Middleton. I think I better just take that one because I heard two questions there. Okay. Got one. Yeah, right. Yeah, so part one, it's highly complex. It's very difficult. We've got to take a shot at it. And you have to bound the problem. So whether it's the University of Maryland or CSIS experts, think tanks, there isn't a whole lot of disagreement on this one. You need to keep bounding the problem in until you can manage it. So in this case, because of the complexity and the challenge you're describing, we started with a port. I mean, ports are the intermodal hub of our economy. That's where all the pieces come together. You can touch everything that's coming in and going out. What we found was our initial effort because of the complexity is we bounded it into cargo. Then we found ourselves really going down to a type of cargo. All in an effort to begin to map this issue with the great software that we have, the great technology we have and the innovation. But you have to begin to realize that there's been no lack of effort on these silos of the infrastructure sectors. So within transportation, within power, within water, banking, they are looking well at what they do. What we're, the proposition here is, the imperative is to start looking at how we're integrated horizontally. So that's the complexity. We're gonna continue to bound the problem to look at a type of cargo and begin to do discovery learning as we go. Like we've done in other disciplines and cross jurisdiction. So that's my first thing in TBD. Secondly, I would say the nature of our constitution, our federalist system is that different people are doing prevent, protect. Different people are doing mitigation. Different people are doing response and recovery. The private sector is not real keen on sharing with anyone, rightfully so, proprietary and beyond, their prevent, protect piece. So the people that are doing the law enforcement piece have a challenge there. How are we gonna do information sharing? Another one of those popular words. I think in the response recovery, we're much more willing in the private sector to share that because that's something we can get after. We all wanna be part of. So for starters, we look at that response recovery, realizing that we have to be able to identify where we can get decisions made. There are some things that are elusive in that way. As much as I would like to have a czar in the maritime domain, to look at the maritime commons and be looking at shifting ports, it's probably never gonna happen because the nature of the maritime commons that they leverage to their advantage is the flexibility, the ubiquitous nature of the transportation system, and that's not gonna happen. So the next best thing is back to where we are, whether it's working on a presidential policy directive or here at a think tank or in the private sector. We're trying to create the conditions where you can have the best information available to make that decision. And what we're gonna have to do, John, I think is identify those people in key places where in the past they've said this is my traditional portfolio. We're gonna have to help bring that resilience piece in in a way that's quantifiable, as we've talked about already, in a way that has a return on investment. And people who have never had to really look at profit loss in the public sector are gonna have to be trained and introduced. So I don't have a good answer for you on anyone czar who'd be in charge. And the last thing I think we should do is try and artificially shape that. But if you begin to have decision support tools, the state of New Jersey has done some phenomenal work at exit 14 where they have a choke point of everything and they put all their efforts on that in a way that has been very helpful. So we have pockets in the US and internationally where they've had some success. And out of that emerges decision makers and leadership, I think. Gentlemen, third row, and I think we may have time for one more question after this question. Peter O'Dell with Swann Island Networks. You mentioned two public-private partnerships you found which is terrible in the sense that you can only find two but I'd love to know who those are because I've been heavily involved in this and it's just been an unmitigated waste of dollars and effort to try to put some of these together and just not have them carry forward. Despite the fact they have huge promise to really bridge some of the problems you're talking about. So my question was, what are the two that you found that were great? Let me back up. I think just a qualification here. It's not that those are the only two that are out there. It's the only two I kind of had time to find because I'm doing this on the clock. Where there's a crisis of faith, a crisis of the culture, let's say, on these issues, all of a sudden people are willing to work together and public-private partnerships become a possibility where they are willing to pay for access to information. The private sector is putting out phenomenal amount of money in Houston alone on one disaster, Hurricane Ike in 2008, $300 billion. Now, juxtapose that with Sandy, two governors, saying is it $65 billion or $66 billion. You have one industry spending $160 million to just restore power within that Hurricane Ike. So my point is there's no lack of motivation and no lack of money in this sense. You have to create the context where it'll work. So the two that I, and I don't think they're the only ones, but they're in the, one is in the medical field. And it's at a major metropolitan area and they are collecting 500 different types of data. They have 90 different hospitals and they have matured this thing over the past six, seven years where the public and private sector are anxious to work together. They have to work together to make it work. The other one is really like a school district, but it's a special security district where there are unique statutes and authorities where a good legal team can come in in this area where you are dealing with law enforcement, has cameras, law enforcement has data and information and the private sector is willing to pay for it because they use it and they add their work to it. So without telling you exactly where it's at, I would just say that those are encouraging signs and there are individuals out there in the country that have been working on this and we're gonna work hard to find them and bring them into our team if we can because we wanna take those exemplars and leverage the lessons they've learned. So one more question, this gentleman in the middle of the third row. Thank you, Philip Baylor from LMI and my question is regarding long-term recovery and where do you kind of identify the gaps in resiliency in long-term recovery, whether it be the funding going down levels of government or how they're kind of just coordinating with each other? We're still recovering from Katrina. Been down there and watched, they're still recovering. We're still recovering from Irene. Came up the East Coast, affected 12 states, one eighth of the US population. We're definitely still recovering from Sandy. They have staffs that are working full-time on FEMA reimbursements. Our system of reimbursements and recovery are hard to navigate and complex. So there's one for you right there, just our system of public recovery. I think the larger market that we have to look at, which again I said it before and I'm not an expert on it, would be the private sector insurance where we can create a market space that may not even exist yet. But there are some very smart people who do understand that and we're talking to them and we're gonna all need to work together on this. I think that, I guess where I would leave this, since that's my last question, would be it always comes back to this elusive quality of leadership. And I think my parents are in their 80s. Let's say that I am lucky enough to live until I'm 100, I'm about halfway there. Okay, in my little hometown, they used to have a flood from the Susquehanna River once every 100 years. They had one in 36, 42, 72, and 11. They're happening more frequently. So I think the conditions are upon us such that if ever we were gonna share information, if ever we were gonna lay down our personal agendas, this is an issue worth doing. The reason I wrote a book and water boarded myself for two years was because I think there's some gaps here that we can close. I think with leadership, if we bring the right people together, they're looking forward to help and solve this problem. So the subheadings would be information sharing, credentialing, huge challenges on credentialing and access, cyber security, communications, all those areas in the 16 critical infrastructures. Now, if you go into the economic census I mentioned, they break those down in far more granularity. So you're up to about 2,500 different categories under those 16 critical infrastructures. We have the technology and the capability to go after this in a way that would be a deterrent to the enemy and storms, if that's possible, and I think to raise the confidence of our current generation who are looking for careers to go after this issue. Resilience needs to be an area that we study carefully and get people like you involved. With that, I want to apologize for those of you I didn't get to, but we are on a tight timeline and I wanted to get you all out before temperatures drop and the wind picks up again. In closing, I want to thank Dane for being here. Thank you very much and for sharing your insights. I will also note that Dane will be here for a few more minutes. There are books he has brought with him and you can get them at a discounted rate if you don't have time or you want to think about it a little. They're also available at Amazon.com. It's called Beyond the Storms. And I always forget the rest of it. Strengthening Homeland Security and Disaster Management to achieve resilience. But Beyond the Storm is by Dane Egley. So please join me in wishing him well with his book endeavor and also to thank him for being here. Great, I've never done anything like that. You made it easy.