 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning markets pick off With your host Tommy O'Brien Good Tuesday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien comedy alive from TFNN 906 a.m. Tuesday morning We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and you got markets in the red this morning by about two-thirds percent But we've given up more than that as you had markets in the positive overnight Since about was zoom in on the action on the S&P's you're talking about 3 30 a.m. This morning We've given up about 45 S&P points. You were as high as thirty nine thirty five So does that put you above 18 points in the positive at one point? We're now 27 points in the negative right now 3890 in the S&P's NASDAQ 100 we're negative by 87 points You see the drop off the drop off as well overnight We're about 150 points from where we were trading at 3 30 in the morning the Dow under 31,000 We're 30,000 912 you get the Russell right now negative by 13 at 1806 crude Talk about an acceleration in both directions yesterday Let's take that Fibonacci number off there because we basically got it all back crude yesterday from 85 50 down to 81 73 We're back to 85 50. That's where we ended yesterday, and that's where we've been shopping around since you jump to the gold contract Trained down $2 at 1675 gold Boy gold you just put gold on a long-term weekly and you were chopping around it some pretty dicey areas for gold You're pretty much right at the lows that we've had whether it was the lows you back things up from July of this year You back it up to August of last year a low of 1677 90 within a couple dollars of that price point You back it up to March 29th the week of 1677 you back it up to earlier in March 1673 so you see gold just kind of teetering within where it was a couple dollars now interesting right that prior to where we are Right now in gold you're talking about lows whether it was last year We had three different lows that all lined up in the 1670s That's also where you got the low two months ago 1678 We'll see if 1670s can hold right now with gold at 1675 We jump to notes and bonds and what do we have folks? We got lower price and we got higher yield the 10 year right now. It just don't stop man We got a 113 handle on the 10 year 113 29 you get the 30 or down more than a full point and nine ticks as We approach the beginning of a Federal Reserve meeting and we get an announcement tomorrow at 2 p.m Eastern Time we got a press conference to follow at 230 higher rates coming at you man The trend has not stopped right now and you just go back to the 10 year We put this thing on a daily and boy you talk about breaking out man We are now breaking below where we were in June and you're talking about a slide folks So the period about six to seven weeks where we have traded from a 122 handle to a 113 handle in the 10 year You talk about an acceleration man in a big way We jump over to the volatility index this morning VIX elevated a bit as we got some negative action in the market the VIX trading at 2661 all right, let's jump around to some currencies before we jump around to the news of the day dollar index It's pushing highs man one ten fifteen right now and for the dollar index I'm gonna remove that Fibonacci for some clarity higher highs higher lows across the board folks the recent high You're talking about from September 7th 110 786 and we are climbing this morning back to a 15 minute even a five minute look at that acceleration right from overnight 10940 to 110 and change right now All right, let's jump around to the euro-us dollar. I've been talking about the euro been talking about the yen And let's put that thing on a daily to see the action And yeah, I mean keep your eye on these channel lines folks currencies running a lot right now and pretty decisive Break off the top portion of that channel line were under parity yet again in the euro-us dollar now I've talked about the pound US dollar as well pound Still chopping around towards the low portion of that channel line for the pond at 1 1409 and we gotta jump to the dollar yen this morning dollar yen 14368 we put that on a 15 minute action just really chopping around for most of the week right not as much volatility right now in dollar yen as it chops around between about 143 and 144 right now for the dollar yen All right, let's jump around to the headlines and we got to talk about a little Fed man because the Fed meeting begins today All eyes will be on the announcement tomorrow 75 basis points expected a hundred basis points in play FOMC unemployment forecast will probably be revised higher and the headline there is that the Fed is set to reveal quote-unquote Pain coming in next stage of inflation fight Hard not to imagine there's gonna be some pain folks in terms of where they're going with rates and where inflation currently is right now But this is that they've been warning in recent weeks when they publish new projections for the economy Which could show a substantial rise in interest rates and unemployment ahead of the estimated price tag for reducing inflation When you look at projections for unemployment rate set to rise again folks, okay? now projected unemployment rate for q4 of 2022 and then is in the black here q4 of 2023 is in the pink q4 of 2024 is in the yellow and what do you see folks? You see rising numbers in a big way there as we now have four point one percent the officials seeing higher unemployment Coming at you for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, but folks 4.1 percent That's a pretty healthy economy with unemployment at 4.1 percent now you can make the case that's that that's not a fair representation maybe you want the Representation of unemployment that includes people who are out of the workforce, etc But nonetheless on a historical basis two years from right now. You're talking about a projection of 4.1 percent I'm not sure that's enough to tame the inflation numbers We have going on and that is one of the worries in this economy the higher trajectory of interest rates is going to have a Bigger impact certainly on unemployment We see the unemployment rate coming up closer to 4.5 percent in the feds nuke forecast is what you may look for there in June Okay Projection for unemployment rate called for a half point increase to 4.1. So those are the numbers that I just went over as of right now Okay, what are they gonna say when they come out tomorrow? Keep your eye on that one man The economy may be the market may be a little freaked out if they really jack things up But you're talking about an estimate from 4.1 Some analysts as I just mentioned looking for that number to potentially rise to 4.5 still 4.5 folks Okay, we got to tame 8 to 9 percent inflation right now and you're talking about in two years We might get an unemployment rising by 4.5 percent. Those are real jobs, man That is real numbers that is almost a full percentage point above where we're at right now in terms of unemployment right think about that that is a full percentage point folks of People that will be unemployed two years from now versus where they are right now Since then monthly diet data on CPI as in they came in with the 4.1 percent in June That was their estimate, but guess what the data has not been friendly We got 8.3 percent inflation since then and yeah, they're looking for Current market pricing for the terminal fans are at five fed funds rate is 4.4 percent is what they might think Okay in terms of where the feds gonna go Yeah, it's gonna be an interesting one folks at 3.7 percent in August the unemployment rate counted 6 million Americans out of work and Actively searching for a job a rise to 4.5 percent assuming no change in the size of the labor force would amount to job losses of 1.3 million Americans who have a job today Okay, who may not have one in two years from now if that number 4.5 percent if that happens folks Unfortunately that may be what's necessary to tame the inflation tendencies going on It's a tough deal the markets reacting obviously because of that We'll see what happens, but we get a fed meet and start in today And we got the SMPs down 27 points after quite a day to the upside yesterday stay tuned folks We'll be right back with our man Kevin Hicks This to gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd gold project This to gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve This to gold has all major permits approved and has retained C. 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We got the S&P right now negative by 30 points NASDAQ 100 You're negative by almost a hundredth the DAW off 219 Let's jump over to our man Kevin Hicks every trading day folks 12 noon eastern time right here on Tiger TV The TD Ameritrade Network with fast market your host Kevin Hicks Tom White the team at TD Ameritrade Network They do an outstanding job folks. They break down the market action They walk you through hypothetical trades every single day usually three of them They're always talking options and options folks you're talking about to find risk and man We got some volatility coming into a Fed meeting Kevin Hicks. Good morning Good morning Tommy O'Brien yet day one of a two-day Fed meeting and really Tommy if you think about it This whole week is going to be about interest rates, right? I mean Wednesday you have the FOMC which also have the bank in Japan now They're not expected to do anything, but they're gonna have a basically their bank of Japan meeting how about this Thursday? You get Switzerland They're expecting to raise 50 basis points. You get Taiwan They're expecting to raise 12 and a half basis points and the Bank of England is supposed to raise by 50 base points That's all coming up Thursday after us Tommy, but as you know if you're an American Investor you're all about not only what Jerome Powell does In terms of moving interest rates, but how he describes that in that post meeting press conference so With the tone that he took coming out of Jackson Hole Tommy There's been a change in the power dynamic. Let's put it that way between Investors in Jerome Powell, so I'm anxious to see how he describes the US Academy as he sees it I think he'll have a lot of eyes and a lot of ears to say the least watching what he has to say at 230 tomorrow let alone the statement at 2 p.m. In terms of their announcement 75 all but guaranteed if not maybe even higher a hundred basis points in play to some degree I was reading this morning Kevin talking about maybe you might get you know a revision of some of the projections tomorrow talking about whether It's unemployment going out forward. We're at a pretty healthy number right now What is it 3.5 3.6% maybe some of the estimates or that they might go up to maybe 4.5 by the end of 2024 looking for a little bit of an economic pullback I think that number is at about 4.1% right now, but man you go up a percentage and you're talking about I saw one projection this morning I mean, it's it's 1.3 million Americans, you know You shift that number up unemployment from where we are right now to somewhere in the ballpark of 4.3 4.5% by the end of 2024 Where does that play in to your mentality Kevin do you first off do you see that type of action maybe and listen? We're looking forward two years. Who knows what's gonna happen, man But if we do is the market pricing some of that in already, that's where I try and get my head going right It's like we're at 3,800 the highs are 4,800. So the market knows something's different right now So where where are we kind of in the estimates that we got some ways to go right now even in a rosy scenario kind of I think what the feds trying to get a handle on right now is the US economy is weakening But how fast how quickly is it weakening right? I think the Announcement out of Ford this morning shows some real concern. You're starting to see layoffs Start to creep in to some of the news stories So when I saw the news about Ford cutting their quarterly earnings kind of a one billion dollar pre announcement and and and the story behind that about supply costs and parts shortages and you know overall Finished vehicles ready to sell are coming up short The first thing I thought of well, I wonder if this is just the first start of many people announcing this right? How is this? I think this is an early announcement, but remember Tommy work We're about two weeks three weeks away from the start of third quarter earning season So I wonder if there's gonna be pre announcements a steady flow Going into earnings. So that's what caught my eye this morning as I look at where the market is right now I mean, you know, I think that this is gonna be Bumpy Tommy the fall that doesn't mean we can't go up as well But boy this market is set for it seems like it's bracing for some bad news out of Jerome Powell Tommy And we haven't chatted since FedEx on Friday, right and pretty similar deal man You talk about a fall off they come out early And they trade off I think 20 22% on Friday seems like all the surprises right now are leading to some pretty big downward Trajectories for some pretty big equities out there Last earnings season was pretty strong man, especially the big stocks out there Apple some of the tech stocks really performing Well, there were a lot of analysts out there saying hey, you know as we get into the later part of this year Maybe early next year you're gonna see earnings revisions though as they're coming It seems like that might be the trend man as we kick things in and as you say September 20th We're coming into October. We kick things off pretty soon with that in mind Kevin What are you guys talking about at 12 o'clock on fast market today? Tommy as you know, we are late in earning season. So as we work our way through a Very thin lineup. It's really all about all the other things But we'll look at the home builders today when our is coming out with earnings tomorrow after the bell We we've got KB homes that we'll look at the housing sector just came out with housing starts and permits Which was a little bit of a mix of a nice beat in starts But a pretty big miss in terms of permits. So we'll look at the housing sector and Will all all things consider get ready for Costco and FedEx on Thursday But you know, this is a very thin time for earnings. So we'll get some high profile names and look at them Tommy Now a company like FedEx for example Kevin, so they're coming out. They pre announced early, right? So it is that I mean you think that that brings down the volatility of what's coming on their earnings when they kind of put it All out there ahead of time Letting people know you still have some volatility in here, man I got it up on the thinkorswim platform right now as of the close yesterday The options expiring for Friday still you're talking about about a $9 move priced into those How do you look at something like that, you know Where you have an equity come out and they kind of give you all the bad news or hopefully all of it Man if they got it out there and then you have their earnings that follow How do you look at an equity usually like that Kevin? Yeah, it certainly it certainly took some of the surprise and the Volatility out of this name the stock has moved down as you said significantly from where it was it was trading You know about 205 now. It's 160 and what 162 to start the day, so yeah, it's already made a big downside move So I think it's just a release of more Information and and so yeah, it's tricky Tommy. You're right. What do you do? How do you trade it when they pre-announce? There is still an expected move of about $7.80. We'll see how that plays out. Yes. Some of this is interesting Tommy, you know My history trading GE they didn't usually pre-announce. So It's it's certainly a different way to look at an earnings announcement I try and imagine myself in that season's like, what do you put out early versus? What do you save? Do you do you throw the whole kitchen sink of everything bad out there early that you have to? And then save a little tidbit if possible We get to find out man later this week. Well, Kevin I appreciate you taking the time as always on a busy morning man We'll be watching at 12 o'clock today and then we'll talk to you tomorrow morning as well. Have a great day Tommy Thanks for having me on thanks so much Kevin folks tune in every trading day fast market on the TD Ameritrade Network Your host Kevin Hinks Tom White. They do an outstanding job folks We got a volatile week going on right now and you heard it They'll be talking about some of the home builders and Kevin referenced it I'll jump over as we come into the break here as we approach the opening bell and yeah housing starts rise Unexpectedly though building permits drop it seems like so often in everything going on There's almost data for any viewpoint that you have out there And it's who is sorting through that data the best to find out which ones are really meaningful for trends that are taking place and which ones are Disguising maybe the trends taking place new construction rising twelve point two percent in August one point five eight million Permit applications though declining to the slowest pace since mid 2020 stay tuned folks. 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You were born to be TfNN educating investors This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TfNN.com Welcome back folks jumping back to the market as we open we get the S&Ps down about 34 points right now trading at 3883 And you see just from where we were overnight folks No, that's yesterday morning. Excuse me Right back to the 618 now the reason why I had this up in particular folks You talk about some moves right now. Okay, we trade it out from 3846 pre-market yesterday Now, let me back this up a little bit because what's so interesting here is that we are basically okay Right back to where we were the close of Friday. Okay, so you could make the case All right, not bad We got a lot of volatility and you that's a rightful case But the swings we're getting in both directions folks This is why my dad talking about you can be trading this market in both directions, man You probably want to be making most of your trades in the way that you think the markets go and if you're bearish making those bearish trades But you talk about a pot man you trade from 3846 to 3935 what is that 50 almost 90 points or yeah 90 points? Okay? That was like 2.2 or 2.3 percent to the upside and then what have we done? We've dropped 55 points 1.3 or 1.4. So you have from yesterday morning 2.3 percent up 1.3 percent down We're right back to where we started Friday action. Meanwhile, the markets are jumping 1 to 2 percent On a daily basis right now. All right, so keep that in mind if you got a trade moving against you Don't be afraid to take your stops folks Uh, we got volatility in both directions. We are right back to the 618 as we blow blow through it right now Well, we're not blowing through it. I shouldn't say that 38 79 right now We're sitting within a point of it actually we'll see if it holds But doesn't look like it just yet man as you got these markets trading lower with the s&p's now negative by 40 points And keep in mind we're negative by 40, but you were higher pre-market. We are approaching What 60 we're approaching 60 points from where you were trading at just at 330 in the morning All right, we jump to uh beyond meat they are in the headlines this morning for some poor behavior by their c Oh, oh, I thought it was the ceo at first. Okay, not as big of a deal in my opinion ceo of a public company like this Yeah, that's a big deal at all Doug Ramsey not exactly behaving as he should have at a football game in Arkansas over the weekend arrested for making terroristic threats third-degree battery and He was involved in a parking garage scuffle of some degree. It seems like a car accident little road rage Punched through the back of the windshield bit the owner's nose ripping flesh on the tip. Oh, it's pretty crazy, man Uh, and they are reacting this morning. Do you think he's talking to the ceo this morning? Do you think he talked to the ceo over the weekend? Uh, I mean beyond meat. They've had some problems, man You still pull up this company and you're talking about a one billion dollar company folks beyond meat now You check out the chart. Okay Can you find a bid on that chart man up to 239 when they went public? I remember running those numbers man, you know, listen to yourself sometimes folks when things don't make sense, right? The multiples in some of these equities. This has nothing to do with covert or anything This thing goes public shoots up to 240. I remember at the time Comparing the market cap of this company versus the market cap of tyson Okay, tyson's going to be coming out with their own fake meat. Okay. There's nothing Patented that's going to allow them to control that market forever And just having the distributions in place alone that tyson has etc Uh nonetheless tyson at 71 beyond meat. They're dealing with some woes. I want to bring it up because man Uh, doesn't seem like somebody I would want to be trusting any of my money with that had that type of a rage and here's the thing When you were in that position of a publicly traded company You should be aware that these are going to be headlines to to disincentivize that even more, right? But that is just some crazy stuff, man. It is not okay. Help people act uh Now it is I mean folks living in florida And I I just assume And you probably should too that if people are being crazy on the road You don't want any part of that man. Take a few deep breaths. Okay, realize what's important and what's not right? Especially if you have kids, especially if you've got kids in the car or something like that That's allowed me to put things in greater context for sure Uh and in florida especially I just assume everybody's got a gun Okay, and the people who are going the craziest in my opinion They're usually the ones that like to carry around guns More so there's plenty of great gun owners folks. Don't make it about that. This is real life, man All right, and I'm not going to be afraid to tell you Okay, if somebody's in there mouthing off acting all tough in florida There's a very distinct chance that they have a gun to back that up and they're just looking for an altercation Okay, this guy. I mean he should be severely punished lose everything in terms of his job There's no way he should be in charge with that type of business decision-making ability So but learn from it the one thing you can do in life is you learn from your mistakes an easier way to do things Okay, is learn from other people's mistakes. It's not a joke. You know realize that that guy's probably A good man in certain parts of his life and he just made a big mistake We can all do that at times. So you bring it up. We digress a little bit All right, let's jump to a little bit of football speaking of uh, not exactly The same story but amazon so talking about there come on get out of there thursday night football Record number of prime sign-ups for a three hour period right check that out. So not only this is what I was talking about Not only are they selling ads at five hundred thousand dollars a pop Okay, not only are they targeting those ads in a way that probably Live football advertisers have never been able to target before But what do they do they reap in the benefits of all the prime sign-ups? It seems like a no-brainer in terms of how some of these companies I mean amazon I feel like amazon's prime and this might be changing now Is almost like an afterthought to that company and that if that can just facilitate people to stay part of the ecosystem They'll make all the money up in prime, right? So imagine competing with them When you have to make all that money back via ads like for instance, you know Fox or cbs and that dynamic dynamic's changing a little bit as well But uh, I watched some of thursday night football I've been a prime member for like 10 years I think now a record number of new prime sign-ups over a three hour period more Then during similar periods on prime day or other big shopping days like black friday There's no incentive like live football man And this is the first time ever that there has been live football exclusively on a streaming platform Yeah, kansas city and la. It was a great matchup. They were broadcast in mahomes all over the app They're spending about a billion dollars of a year to stream it exclusively And uh, well, yeah, they're they're they're out there touting it, of course, okay But boy prime sign-ups man if they start crushing some prime sign-ups and I imagine that's not going to persist in week two or week three, but that's still going to happen Okay, and everyone's under the 39 bucks for a year They got 200 million subscribers and they have 80 million active prime video households in the us So that was thursday night. We get it again this thursday night Interesting to see how those games go because usually the thursday night games though Those are the weakest games of the slate and that's why they're very hard to make money on The networks will Put together the weakest game give that to thursday night. They save the best one for monday night Probably sunday night's a huge game as well Etc. So we'll see how it goes All right, what else do we have up here peloton? We'll talk a little bit of peloton They are going into the rowing machine for 3195 man these these machines. They're expensive We know that they're launching a line of rowing machines Now it'd be interesting to see How they can transition that to recurring now they're up 1.5 percent Okay, 1.3 percent now you put it on 15 minute They were a little bit higher on the open to 10 20 But boy percentages folks on small numbers can be deceiving. I say it all the time percentages on small numbers Can be deceiving because you're up eight pennies which is almost a full percent Okay, all you are is back to where this thing was trading out on far You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave The Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge and identity Okay, thanks for welcome back folks. I apologize studio had a big power outage there right as we came into the break We'll kick right back into it and we'll jump in with the s and p's Forgive me, uh as we blow through now that's 618. I was saying we were teetering on it I said we blew through it hadn't blown through it. We're 10 points below where we're at Look at this man. You're talking about folks from where we were friday. Okay now Let's I'm gonna pull it up just to show you man We're talking about 2.3 up 2.3 down in the span of a day as we come into a fed meeting, man Anytime you're getting these types of moves folks open your mind up to the possibility that people are very Unsure how to price this market. Okay, that is something that we should all be certain for Uh, you just go from 39 35 okay From 38 46 a man. I'm taking off the the Decimals that's 89 points from 38 46 That is exactly a 2.31 percent move to the upside And now what have we done? We've we've lost 66 points about off of the high of 39 35 We're now 1.67 or 1.68 percent on the downside 2.3 up 1.68 percent down man And that's just the s and p's the moves might even be bigger in the nasdaq or the doubt Uh, okay, let's jump around and see what else we have going on And yeah, we were talking about a little bit about peloton man. So peloton Just to finish up that conversation Okay Rowing machines is not like a bike. That's kind of what the mentality that didn't portray I think well enough in that quick little snippet rowing machines. Okay a great great Exercise, I remember doleman high school man Who you talk about getting an aerobic exercise with a heart rate on a rowing machine full body workout uh core workout But it's Not the same as a bike in my opinion You're not going to have a lot of people that are excited to jump on a bike and do a group class Like they are excuse me a rowing machine like a bike and if that is what peloton is Hoping will shape up to its future. Look at you already gave up That that pop that it even had as peloton down negative by two tenths percent And you're selling it for three thousand plus bucks, you know, yeah, you get me may get some hardcore fans there, but Enough said amazon shares down about 1.5 percent today Let's jump around to some of those bigger stocks apple shares down about two tenths percent Microsoft down seven tenths google shares down about 1.3 percent. We jump over to meta facebook off 1.1 Let's see how some of those airlines are trading this morning. They got quite a lift yesterday American negative by three tenths percent today delta Off a bit by about three tenths percent. We jump domestically love off 1.7 Jet blue jet blue is almost its own animal man. They're in big trouble recently off 1.5 percent Let's see how the cruises are trading a little volatility in both directions for the cruises Talk about some volatility man Who now this thing breaks out of this a three-year weekly encapsulates the entire covet collapse The rejuvenation and then the collapse yet again now check it out That's one channel line that it broke out of Almost a full year ago, right? But check it out where it is right now folks, okay And this is where you know, you don't have to be a brilliant statistician sometimes and you know what? I'm even going to go like this. I mean it's not A science folks. It's an art And what i'm showing you on this chart is a series of lower lows and lower highs, okay? It might not match up exactly parallel, but if you took And activate that oops I'm going to activate this just to square it up a bit Okay, I mean you take a little linear regression where it best fits That's probably your channel line man, and I'd be real careful looking at these cruise ships right now With lower lows and lower highs and nor region is bumping right into that portion atomers to the upside. Let's see how carnival is doing Yeah, and carnival pretty similar now. I already have it on them. Let's let's see where we let's cancel that left extension, okay? And yeah carnival a little bit of a different story there. I mean, where's the bottom portion of this channel line, right? Maybe you want to drop that down a little bit now Maybe your linear regression might fall there You got carnival kind of right in no man's land the middle of their channel line of lower lows and lower highs meanwhile nor region Uh Looking like it could be in for a pullback to some degree See how some of the chicks chip stocks are trading talk about downtrends, man. AMD down a full percent right now The video just don't stop down 1.3 percent right now We jump over to the sum of the equities with news stories FedEx not stopping either off 2.4 percent man Look at this thing. So FedEx They do as kevin mentioned So they have their numbers you pull up the analyze tab you jump over the earnings tab their numbers are out on thursday I believe yes thursday the open numbers will be out And they have a seven dollar and sixty cent move priced in for that earnings event, okay But sometimes if you're trading the weekly options to expire on the 23rd Knowing how much volatility is priced on for the event is obviously important Uh, but knowing how much volatility is priced in for the instrument that you're purchasing Which would be that friday expiration you're talking about eight dollars and 82 cents now You could think about selling volatility Okay, and we're going to walk through real quick kind of the mentality I go through sometimes You could think about saying hey FedEx came out with their earnings already So some of the surprises are out of the bag obviously when this equity was just trading at 205 And you're getting it at 159 today. You're getting it 45 dollars You're getting it what 22 23 percent below where it was trading at just last thursday Okay, so maybe already a lot of that earnings volatility is out of the bag But you got to keep in mind what you have here is you have a lot of market volatility as well Okay, and you still have the potential for there to be News that will drive this stock on the earnings front. Okay, they came out with a material fact And folks that is a legal obligation and um, I I would say that FedEx and and part of its planning Part of its perception planning as well, right? They're trying to figure out the best way They can release this information to do the least harm to their company's share price At the same time as fulfilling their duties as an executive officer of a publicly traded company that Is mandated legally to disseminate material information to shareholders On an equal basis so that nobody has an advantage in the market Now we'll see what happens point being I talk about maybe an eight dollar move throughout the week, right? And you already have earnings out of the way. Well, guess what? We're 20 minutes into the trading day folks and FedEx has already dropped four dollars and 50 cents So be careful when you think things are a little bit too easier than they seem as in eight dollars Is not a lot of movement right now because this market is still digesting some of what came out last Friday in my opinion As they come into their earnings on thursday and you have all of that volatility tomorrow So which way do you think the market's going? We got a big day tomorrow with the Fed And it might make sense to line up some of your equity trades with that same directional bias stay tuned folks one more segment has just launched their new trading room the tiger's den hosted at discord Tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den You can look over the shoulders of tom o brian and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs And join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Even at night and on the weekends the tiger's den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of tfnn.com You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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We have the s&p's approaching negative by 50 We're jumping to the 10 year right now you're looking at a 10 year negative by 18 ticks at 1 13 25 It's not stopping right now. Those are 15 minute bars pushing those recently taking a look at where we are In terms of the yield right now the 10 year pushing 3 0.6 percent. How about the two year pushing three? 0.99 Right the one month yield 2.51. I mean crazy numbers across the board the 30 year at about 3.6 percent right now Uh pretty surprising stuff man. How about the one year above 4 percent two year almost at 2 at 4 percent itself And then you get the 10 years sitting at about 3.6 percent 3.6 percent the yield on the 10 year right now We jump around to the dollar index real quick dxy Accelerates to 1 10 26 just in the last 15 minutes or so We jump around to some of the commodities as we finish up the program right now You get the gold contract down about five bucks at 16 72. You have silver right now down 21 cents at 19 15 How about natural gas There we go natural gas sitting at about 770 well off the highs of last week at 9 23 I'd be careful in that natural gas market folks. You see what can happen You can get a pullback and man that does not mean the pain is over Uh in this commodity natural gas though off a bit 769 right now It's going to be an interesting day to say the least folks fed meeting tomorrow Uh, we got yield spiking Coming into that fed meeting in a way. We haven't seen a long time man. Take a look at the 30 year Okay, you're down to 4.17 Yeah 4.18 ticks now can't keep up with how quickly this market's moving And you talk about a decisive break folks I talked about it when it happened and it almost seemed like That'd be crazy if that was the case right because it's such a channel And it's such a way to bounce off that channel and trade lower But look at what they did man. You break through a channel line. Okay or trend line Because it's just been straight upwards forever You break through that on the low side you come back up and test it I'm gonna put it on a three-year weekly right now. There's your test man August 1st since then the third year is traded from 146 basically to 129 14 Stay tuned folks basil Chapman's up next with the tiger technicians hour Thanks so much for starting your trading today with me. Stay tuned for basil folks. Have a great Tuesday