 Welcome traders, that's 2pm UK, British summertime, almost coming to an end for you guys over there. Here in Southern New Yorker today, it's 27 degrees in the sunshine. Okay, let's, let's get going here. Before we get started, quick audio and visual test. If you can hear me, and you can see my screen, the welcome screen, the technical welcome screen. We'll type a Y into the chat box, so that I know we have all the end visual ready to roll. Good stuff. Before we start presentation, important for today, risk disclaimer. Obviously, we all should be aware of the risks associated with trading CFDs through Ticknell UK or Ticknell Europe Limited. But equally important for today is that any views expressed by me are solely mine, they are not indicative of all representative of those held by Ticknell UK or Ticknell Europe Limited. For those of you who are here for the first time a brief introduction to myself. My name is Patrick Manley and after I graduated from King's College London I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I met some of my colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit to consulting startup which was focused on C-suite's executive search for technology businesses. I essentially had a front row seat to the dot com bubble witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriately day gambling. As a beginner's luck I racked up some pretty solid gains however, as is often the case, my beginner's luck run out and as the market phase changed I began to average down into what were going to be pretty significant losing positions. I gave back all my gains and ultimately took a sizable six figure financial hit. This was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement at best. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. It was a time during which I ups not just my technical game in terms of researching developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management risk management approach. Most importantly though during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly there, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientating individual focused really just on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategies, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset, and you accept and understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades, because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. In 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering again annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm engaged in other market orientated projects, I guess you call them. I am, as you may know, a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Ticknell, providing an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for two, three, well, sorry, probably more like through the five markets now. You can actually track those through trading view here. You can subscribe to the Ticknell ideas account here and you can see I post pretty much daily now setups through this account and you can track the trade development as price action develops. So strongly suggest you use actually I'll post that link for you into the chat here. There's a link there that will give you direct access to that group. And then more recently, I am and also charged with running Ticknell's rapidly expanding even strategy group. Let me change the slides and see perhaps. It's a group, that's a free group where I provide daily specific trade plan for the cash US trading session for the day ahead. Since its inception from April this year, I've delivered over 1200 points of upside and just this week, well it's been starting on Monday, we've actually launched a telegram channel. This is for traders who have a funded Ticknell futures account. What this will give you is access to the channel, which has institutional research posted there on a daily basis, we're covering all the E-mini, sorry, the E-mini and E-micro products right in front market indexes through commodities, forex and crypto contracts. You'll also get access. I run two automated trading models, specifically trading the E-mini S&P 500 and also in the gold futures market. I'm syncing up those algorithms to provide real time trade alerts into that telegram channel. And what you'll also get as well in that telegram channel is live stream sessions during the opening hour of the cash trading session for the E-mini S&P, where I'll be sharing in real time my observations and analysis and sharing my trades, calling my trades in real time as well. So for those that are interested, you need to message me your Ticknell futures account number, and then I'll provide you with a link that means you can access that channel. Like I say, we're launching, the full launch is going to be on Monday. So that's something else you might want to think about taking a look at if you're interested in those products. Let me, I'll post the link for the Facebook channel. You can access the free trade on every day anyway. That's posted as a video before the cash session opens in the US. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Let's now take a look at the charts. So we are going to start here with the S&P 500. In the Facebook group, you know, been pretty bullish on the S&P, certainly after we got this pullback, and once we held that support area at 4319, we were looking for the break of this internal descending trend line resistance to set up the extension higher. And we've seen that play out. We're now coming into a pivotal test here of the prior all-time highs. What I would bring to your attention, and what I certainly pay attention to is we have got a bit of divergence here in play, a little bit of a stretch in terms of the short-term momentum. We've had a big rise over the past week. So what I think we're potentially heading into is probably some profit taking. Maybe we just take out the prior all-time highs, but certainly only watching for this momentum divergence to be addressed. So if we're not raising that all I'm suggesting is that we can see a tradeable correction here. Certainly to my mind what I'd be focused on would be the equality objective. Let me just blow this up a bit and you can see exactly what I'm talking about. And I talk about the equality objective. We've got this swing here is prior correction. So if we overlay that swing there. So what we could see to my mind anyway is as we get up into these highs that we get a pullback equal to the last correction. That would take us back into this 44.31 area. And you can see we've got a lot of volume traded through that zone. And so that would be a natural area for prices to pull back after making new high. And then we watch there. What are the horizontal bars? They're volume. They're volume bars, volume profile. So what we're looking at then is this pullback into the support zone. And then we'll be looking for bullish reversal patterns. And certainly we could think about if we're just working on simple wave theory here, we would have five equals one. So depending upon where we find our high, maybe we just take out for our highs. Then what I'm looking at is this sort of scenario where eventually we actually into into the back end of, sorry, and guys, if you've got questions, can you just make a note of them. And at the end of the presentation, I'll open up a Q&A and I can walk through that stuff with you. You can put them into the chat, but I just won't answer them during the session. I'll answer them at the end. So feel free to type any questions you have or pay an instrument you'd like me to take a look at. I may not cover in my deck here and I'll jump into that at the end. So that's what I'm looking at a pullback from wherever we potentially find a top here. And then we're going to be looking to re-engage on the long side to join in with what I anticipate is going to be a run higher into the year end that seasonality is very favorable into the Christmas and a new year. So we'll see how we'll see how this plays out but certainly I'm looking for an interim peak to be put in in the coming sessions. So that was a trade setup. We were tracking, we got the move into the support zone here, but this bullish outside reversal candle, which was the trigger on the long side through that 14,780. And we've taken out the descending trend line resistance. So we have, we've traded it up into the, this prior highs here and we're seeing a bit of resistance come in now. So what I'd be a similar story really to the S&P, we overlay this corrective leg here. So what we're looking at now will be a pullback potentially from current levels in the NASDAQ. And we get a retest of the broken descending trend line resistance to active support. We've got a monthly pivot there, 15,000 is the level there. So any pullbacks into that zone, we're going to want to watch for bullish reversal patterns to re-engage on the long side. So NASDAQ, its pattern currently would suggest a, if we're looking at just a simple wave theory here of the fifth wave even the first wave, we'd actually have a retest. So this brings us into the price cycle highs here up into 15,734, but trade as posted in the, in the trade view ideas is running 500 points plus in profit. So it's, it's working nicely there. So we're going to remove that, avoid confusion. The DAO, DAO has an interesting pattern here in terms of an expanding, expanding megaphone type top scenario could be developing here for the DAO. So what we'll be watching, what I'm going to certainly be paying attention to with the DAO is, is do we get this scenario where we trade up into the ascending, projected ascending trend line resistance and then get very steep pullback into the projected descending trend line support to complete then what would actually be a bullish consolidation pattern to take us up into, up into new highs there in the DAO. The DAO has been a bit weaker than, well, Russell has been the weakest but the DAO has lagged the S&P and, and so, and the NASDAQ in the run up and has put in more of a consolidation pattern which suggests to me that coming out of coming out of this consolidation, we could see the DAO actually take the lead here. We'll just have a look at the Russell, I think we've got the Russell here, because that, yeah, take a look at the Russell as well, because that's a nice consolidation pattern. And this one suggests that we should see a fifth wave extension. So again, working on the premise that any fifth wave objective at a minimum is going to be equal to the first wave. And that gives us, we can use this consolidation base to give us a target on the other side there of 27,000 in the Russell. So a couple of ways you play, couple of the ways to potentially play this, why are they going to retest this descending trend line resistance again, and then get a pull back into the base once more, watch for bullish reversal patterns engage on the long side. Or we're actually, we take it out, we take out these highs, and then we recheck the broken sending trend line resistances support, and then that acts as the base to catapult things higher up into the, up into the target zone. And then from the volume distribution, this is the highest traded volume area over the past 18 months so this is, this is, this is to my mind at this stage in ways and accumulation pattern, and, and then we look for an extension to the upside and we iterate them up into the, up into the target zone. Alternatively, obviously, and there is always, there's always an alternative is that we actually fail to break to the upside. And then what we'd be looking for be a breach of the trend line support here. But this, we get back in here and we take this out. And then what we'd be watching for is the first pullback to test that prior support zone as resistance, and that could set up a move then down. We'd be rechecking the yearly pivot of these, these prize over here. So two scenarios, my preferred scenario at this stage given the seasonality and how we're set up at the moment is that is that we run this up into the fifth wave objective here at the 27,000 level. And I would say there are a couple of areas to just monitor for your potential entry points there. Do know that we do have this active momentum divergence at the moment so it's, it's not crystal clear, which way we're going to go but like I say because of the seasonal aspects and, and the current market positioning. What we see is a break through this descending trend line resistance, and the momentum study here to, to break out as well and then that would be the green light for, for long positions and taking, taking this higher to its fifth wave objective. The one in here is the DAX. They're looking for bullish reversal patterns from the test here of the 14,700 got those and the trade triggered at 15,280 and has run up 300 points or so here, but pay attention now because we are sitting right at this, this descending trend line resistance potential scenario they're developing so I mean I still, I'm still interested in this to, to extend higher, and if you're not in the trade, certainly what you can be thinking about is any closing breach of this descending trend line resistance is an opportunity to add to long positions. And, and ultimately what we're looking for is a recheck of this broken descending trend line resistance here you can see it. One to third touch, fourth touch rolled over. If we get through there then I'd look for us to recheck that from below and potentially extend up into the ascending trend line resistance up into the 17,300 area so there's still room to run in this one to my mind and certainly in a long position, then there's an opportunity to add on a closing breach of the descending trend line resistance. DXY, I'll tell you step on the futures chart. So the DXY has, has Julie pulled back from the yearly pivot double top scenario, have some momentum divergence there let's just draw this in a few, see what I'm talking about. Now we're testing some pivotal support, and this is really going to see now if the dollar can can pick things up here, we've obviously still got that background market dynamic of taper talk coming out of the Fed, we've got the important platform scene eating November 3rd. And, and you know if they come through and give us solid indication of when tapering is going to commence and potentially talk about rate moves, then I think there's another high to come in the dollar index, and that will kind of be the by the rumor sell the facts scenarios so pay close attention to newswires at the moment, and how the Fed are setting up into this, into this ever seen eating, because I think that could, that could be the catalyst to drive us into this one more, one more high in terms of the, in terms of the dollar index, and then we'll see if the bears can go back in and take things lower. Certainly, I think we can think about a minimum correction equal to this leg here from wherever we eventually find our, our peak here but we've been trading pretty nicely within this pitchfork channel for now so while support remains 90 to 80, you can see that's the highest volume price as well for this past 18 months, then whilst we've maintained support there, then we can still expect or I'm expecting the potential for one more high in the dollar index. Gold. The pitchfork trade that I highlighted again I posted that on the trading via account, started to work well, broke the internal descending trend line resistance after holding this pivotal test off the pitchfork, and then we've, we've run into some resistance at 1780, trying to see them get through that, if we do get through that the area of huge interest to me and could be significant, especially if we think the dollars and make one more high is, is a test here this third test, and I always pay very close attention to the third test of this 10 in trend line at 1836 now, that could actually set up the move for the big corrective target down at 1520 so we'll see how gold trades into that zone. Silver interestingly has led the charge through its internal trend line resistance so what I'll be looking for now with silver is probably runs into some resistance here in the midpoint. So, maybe a 475, maybe a deep inverse head and shoulder scenario to set up an equality objective and when I talk about a quality objective what I mean is, wherever we get our swing high here will be looking for an equal leg, so that will put us up in 2560 and then this descending trend line resistance may cap things for silver but if we get through there, then we start to think about range resistance up to 30 again in terms of silver. So crude oil, this is an important one at the moment, and it's important. Certainly because of its implications, if you I don't know how many of you were trading 2007 2000 2006 2007, and it was the surge and crude prices that ultimately was the initial catalyst to take the markets down heading into 2009. Now we're seeing quite a surge here and crude at the moment, obviously, we have seen, you know, pretty much a run across in all of these energy based energy related commodities but crude is the one I'm paying really close attention to and I'll show you some targets now we have in play. So again, thinking in terms of simple wave analysis and the idea that fifth wave should equal the first waves this is our first wave, this is our one to this was our third wave, we have a perfect equality objective test complete way forward to 6255. So what we do is we measure from 6255. And that gives us a target there of 9445 and it coincides with this assembly trend line resistance and that will be the third test. So I'm going to pay really close attention. So what I've been looking for is a pullback and then the wave equal to our first wave. So I don't anticipate we get some sort of pullback in the current in the current area. Just put in a little channel here as well. So if you think about a pullback into the 8182 level, and then that sets up the extension to the upside to challenge this, this 9445 area. So that if we get up into those prices, that's going to put a bit of a lean on on the equity markets. And so this could be the catalyst for a pullback in terms of the equity markets but for now, we're looking to engage on the long side. Again, what we do want to be cognizant of is we have momentum divergence and play here so what I don't anticipate happens here is we get the pullback, we find support. And so that allows the momentum study here, psych indicator to roll over a bit maybe test the midpoint. And then as price extends up into that fifth wave target, what we'd actually look for would be another attempt into the second trend line resistance in terms of psych indicator. And then triple divergence and triple divergence oftentimes will lead certainly to a pause correction and even reversal so as that if this plays out as I anticipate, then what we'd look for would be a nice three wave move then down into test support back into the prior next year at 76 handle. So crud is one that's on the radar. There's an opportunity I think potentially building on the long side, looking for this fifth wave objective and then we will pay attention to the momentum dynamics and see if we get an opportunity to put a fade in there and trade this back down into the third wave high here and that ascending trend line support. So the coin obviously in the news making news, we have been talking for a while now about this 75 handle in terms of Bitcoin so what I'd be looking for here, we've just taken obviously take out stocks above the market. Nice setup, get into this pitchfork resistance and pullback like something like this would be ideal, and then sets up the extension into that 75 target. We couldn't even extend higher here because if we're going to suggest that we're in the third wave at the moment, then we'd actually get a five equals water sorry five equals one that would take us up into projected ascending trend line resistance. We can start thinking about 80,000 there in terms of in terms of Bitcoin, looking at this pattern and setup. Most of the high volume know there is the 57,250 so any pullbacks into that 57,250 zone will certainly draw attention and will be an opportunity to reload on the long side, and then we look for the test of the ascending trend line resistance up to 80,000 heading into the back end of this year even. Let's just take a look at some of these majors now wrap it up, Euro dollar, looking for the Euro dollar to looking for another low basically the Euro dollar, and then I think we can see a more meaningful correction so watch for any test of the descending trend line resistance weekly range resistance. So this is 11685. This is where I've been looking for reversal patterns that short positions couple actually just want to highlight a couple of scenarios I'm watching here, the Euro Kiwi, I'm going to just pull up a weekly chart here as I posted this in the trading view. We are following. We are testing here a really big weekly trend line support, and it's got a couple of structures there at this 162 handle. So what I'm going to be watching now on the daily is, is for reversal key day reversal. And then they close back through a prior days high essentially so we've made the new low, and then we get that close through the prior days high, and that would give us an opportunity on the long side to play for at least a bounce back into the 165 handle. Similar story here in the sterling Aussie. We're testing now I'd highlighted this again through that through the trading view accounts. We're testing an equality objective here and we've got this ascending trend line support. So you see if we can get a bullish reversal pattern from this area set long positions and certainly think about a retest of descending trend line resistance 18665. Another one that's also of interest to me is the dollar South African Rand getting a nice reversal here today. And if we can close back through yesterday's highs, I think there's a long set up here. And then we want to be thinking about a retest of this neckline, if we can get through there on a closing basis, then the quality objective at 1607. And the, the actual inverse head and shoulders scenario here has a technical target up at 1758. Well, certainly the Euro key with the sterling Aussie and, and this South African Rand are ones that I'm going to be watching on a closing basis. Also, just over a run out of time here, all these ends are sitting right at some pivotal resistance this is the Kiwi and looking getting a reversal here. Certainly for me anyway, because we've been in this bullish extension what I'd be thinking about now is Kiwi yen, and I'll be looking at this tomorrow morning certainly if we get a bearish close here, looking for an Asian range break scenario but I've been looking for this type of pattern to play out with Kiwi yen so there's certainly a tradeable corrective move here from below 81 sixties back down into the 7990 area. And we've got similar stories in the Aussie and the Aussie and hasn't does he has potentially a double top here, but no, no divergence site. I pass on the Aussie and I prefer the Kiwi and Swiss yen. It's got a bit more work to do to check its trend line there so we pass on that one the cad yen. And then it's sitting right at its trend line here so their attention to some of these yen's I'll be updating these. I'll be updating these in the trading view account over the coming sessions but I see a bunch of opportunities developing in those in those pairs specifically. That's, that's me for now those are the markets I'm tracking the opportunities I see the in terms of the main trade that I've got running at the moment is short short the dollar, and I've rolled down stocks on that to just above three day high 9395. But I've got a bunch of these indexes running as well. And I'm watching those, those four experts that I've talked about just then as as opportunities in coming sessions. So without said. So, let me open this up for questions. Let me first of all take a sip of water guys. So bearish the green candles are bullish. Yeah, these candles are a little bit different to normal candles I use a five periods and volume weighted average price. And so prices trading above the five period volume was average price that we color color green, and if it's below that we colored red is the is the deal there. Then I'm sure he says more, but I use fiddle trace and put extensions and never use the pitch walk. To I know, yeah, I mean, again, then 15 years of staying at these charts I could, I don't I wouldn't actually need to put the pitch walk on I just do it really so that people can see, but again, if you think about I use this knowledge before, if you think about a plumber or an electrician. You know, they, they have a bunch of tools in their toolbox that they can use depending upon the situation they're addressing when they go to a house or an office or whatever. Because it's the same being a trader. I, you know, I have probably 10 or 11 tools that I use depending upon the market condition and depending upon almost to a high degree now for me for because I've been doing this for a long time. So that's subconscious pattern recognition I can see what what tool will be most effective for the current market setup so that's kind of that's kind of how I apply or use the pitch fork. So does it, is it kind of measure of sport music. Yeah, it is, it's some you get, I mean, if you if you Google this, you could spend the rest of your life reading about pitchforks and frequencies and the harmonics, etc. It to me, it's simply, it's giving you a good reference points of it's giving you a good reference point of dispersion within a trend and when I talk about dispersion. What I'm saying here here is that this midline for just to look at this midline here price rotates pretty nicely into it away from it into it away from it into it breaks it and back to it. Then back to it. So that would be the midpoint or easily is is is the reference point the median point and price hasn't really dispersed, meaningfully, or certainly we think about this thing 100% and that being 100% price hasn't really moved 100% out of that range. So what would be significant here will be a close above the midpoint of the bigger channel, because then what you can think about and statistically, and there's a high probability that you will then go up and test the upper parallel certainly you think about this parallel first as a first target and then this is your second target. So the way it's traded people trade differently the first pullback to the lower parallel is a long position that targets the midpoint. And then you take profits there and you wait to see, do we retest the lower parallel yes we do, and then we break out to the side and off we go. Yeah, I'm. I trade predominantly predominantly Cornelia the daily chart. So this is daily time frame stuff here. The, it works on it works on. It works like anything else. If it's, if it works on one chart, and it's, it's consistent, then because of the fractal nature of markets, it must work on all timeframes. Okay, the difference is, you get this on a minute chart or a five minute chart you're going to make a lot of decisions and understand the price movement of the instrument your trading in super quick time. Okay, I don't like being rushed in decision making I prefer to take my time, understand the context and parameters, and then I, then I, you know, that's how trade basically so for me I'm looking at the daily and the hourly time frame, and I'm looking at these, these instruments, obviously I traded the futures on a lower timeframe but that's using different tools, and a different process that allows me to, to effectively make decisions there and make decisions quicker. How do you trade multiple time frames. So the multiple time frames approach, I treat in the futures in the many futures group, telegram group, I mean, I'll be trading predominantly hourly and five minute charts. So I use the dual time frame aspect of the hourly and the five minute charts. And I say the majority of my, let's say CFD trading is done on the daily timeframe. The reason why with the futures I'm able to use a lot of time frames is some specific market internals that I use that allows, allow me to make solid hyper ability decisions on those low time frames. Do you have a link to an online resource where I can learn the basics of trading. Henry, I will. If you, if you drop me an email Henry I'll put my email in here. If you want to drop me an email, and I'll point you in the right direction. Are you going to trade based on. I trade on technicals and I am well versed in the fundamentals. To my mind, everything that's known in the market is in the price, the current price. And so, if you understand the fundamentals, you can then understand what the catalyst may be for the technical pattern to play out. That's how, that's how I think about things in terms of fundamentals. So I, you know, I have an abundance of knowledge with respect to the fundamentals but my prime driver for executing the trade is always a technical pattern. So yeah, Henry, can you see my email address there, patrick.money at techno partners.com, you drop me an email, and I'll, I'll point you in the right direction. We've, we've run. How did you become world versed in fundamentals. Yeah, there, if you again drop me an email and I'll point you in the right direction for some resources community. Okay, so I am going to wrap this session up here. Thanks very much for your time everyone. I hope you've, I hope this has helped, and we will will reconvene at the same time next week and like I say, feel free to join any of those groups that I've highlighted there. And, and certainly if you've got a future's account, be sure to, be sure to join me in the telegram channel where you will get real time access to me and my trading. Okay guys, thanks very much everyone and I'll catch you sometime next week.