 When is this market going to stop going down? And I've always maintained the same thing. Ironically, when you go back to even the generational lows of 2009, there was one aspect that kept on coming up over and over again. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody, and welcome to another edition of the accessatrader.com. We can update show, hope everybody is doing well. So everything is all good again, right? The birds are chirping, spring is here, food is tasting better, people are smiling. Nice to have you guys back, right? It's been three months, and we've had some pretty aggressive sell bias action, which was really good on the downside. Again, if you're a trader, it's been some really great action, both sides. The moves in the last three months have been, ironically, very orderly considering all the news and flow that's been going on. But it really does show you, and we'll get to this week, obviously, in a minute, the staggering moves this week back to the upside. But this really should be a big wake up call, especially to new traders. A lot of people, you hear this because you're part of the social media generation, a lot of people use the word, they've been using the word, it's called cash as a position, right? Cash as a position, because everybody's so programmed that you're in this linear bull market that as long as you wait three, four, five days, doesn't make a difference how much selling there is, the market will always rebound and the market will always go higher. And I think a lot of you guys have seen now for the last three months or so that it's kind of not like that, right? And this whole situation and kind of whole notion that the market will always go higher in the short period of time and everything will be good as long as you wait it out, right? Sit on your hands as long as you wait it out. And this time around, and we're kind of in it, we're just kind of still in it, we're three months into this, right? And a lot of you guys have seen that stock prices don't need to rebound, okay? The market doesn't need to do what you wanted to do or you needed to do. And you get very, very emotional. A lot of people got very, very nasty because again, I understand your money's on the line, you're watching a bleed, you're not used to watching a bleed in your mind, you're going to be right no matter what. But the market, like I've been saying for years and years and years, doesn't care what we think, right? It doesn't care that you're a nice person, you're a great husband, you're a great wife, you do great things in the community, work with the church and this, that, the fourth, it doesn't matter. The market's there strictly to facilitate buyers and sellers and basically trade on the staggering events. And right now we're in a big, big, staggering event that it will take your money, right? And the word caches of position is, and I'm sorry to say this, and a lot of people are going to be upset, but this is kind of the reality. It's a crutch, okay? It's an absolute crutch. It's a crutch because you're not trading both sides of the market. It's like getting into a car and saying to yourself, I'm only going to use the side two mirrors. I'm not gonna use the mirror right in front of me. It's ridiculous. If you're an active trader, you have to trade both sides of the market. If you're an investor, that's a completely different conversation. Again, your time is probably better served somewhere else. You know, we're intraday traders and I think a lot of things that happened in the last three months showed you that you are vulnerable, okay? That you need to have the skill set to kind of trade on both sides of the market. And just because we had a phenomenal rally this week and an absolute phenomenal rally, and again, we'll get details in a second, it should be an eye-opener, especially if you are brand new in this business, that you should learn both sides of the market. You should be comfortable on both sides of the market because just because we did have a phenomenal move this week, does that mean that was the bottom of it? Again, we'll get to the technical side of it in a second because again, you know, I've traded bear markets that lasted two, three years, okay? And I've literally traded two of them that way. We've been here three months and just because we rallied this week doesn't mean that we are out of the woods. And that's a very, very important point. And, you know, for all you guys who are taking this serious and you want this to be a career more than just the trade, okay? Who knows, maybe this is the bottom. We don't know yet, right? We won't know until we reclaim the 200-day moving average. But the point is, this is a big wake-up call, try to do everything in your power, use the weekends, use your day-offs, use the nights to kind of figure out both sides of the market, figure out why sentiment is so super important to your development. And for everybody who uses the word cash as a position, I mean, again, how long can you sit and how long can you sit on your hands if this indeed does turn into a two, three year sell side environment? So just be conscious of what you are. Again, you have two hands, right? You have two eyes, two ears, okay? You could trade both sides of the market. You're not a bad person, okay? It doesn't make you evil, it's just reality, okay? Stocks go up, stocks go down. It's the adults in this business that last a long time, not the emotional, you know, not the emotional roller coaster. People who unfortunately, you know, don't look at reality and unfortunately, you know, expire, okay? Expire because again, always remember the market is the market. And it's much harder to stay solvent more than you can be right. So be that. So let's talk about it, right? So phenomenal move, right? Absolutely phenomenal move. If you look at the scoreboard this week, ridiculous four day move. You had Nasdaq up 8%, okay? You had the Dow five and a half and you had the SPX up 6%. And the one thing we talked about in a lot of videos over and over and over again, and people always ask the question, and that question is, when is this market gonna stop going down? And I've always maintained the same thing. Ironically, when you go back to even the generational lows of 2009, there was one aspect that kept on coming up over and over again. The news was still there, the defaults were still there. People are still losing their jobs, their homes, companies are still closing. People are going bankrupt, right? But what happened was in 2009, that sellers eventually got tired. And that's the most important part. And that's kind of what we saw here. And the second part of sellers getting tired, we needed, especially if you watch kind of the videos, just in the last couple of weeks, we kept on re-iterating the same thing, that eventually bad news needs to go numb. People start living with bad news, they start living with events, and eventually they just go completely numb to it and they brush them off. And that's exactly what happened this week. If you guys remember, we had a pretty big sell-off, I think it was on Monday. And then Tuesday, there was a headline that was from Putin that said he's not going back to the negotiation table, or at least not right now. And the cues, if you guys remember, went from like 327 to 324, like in seconds. And the most important part of that was, was the equation we talked about. Sellers eventually get tired and they start living with, well, bad news because that's part of our lives now. Again, war at this wartime environment is part of our lives. And eventually, in the next half hour, 45 minutes, that bad news was gobbled up and then the market started to go higher and it closed at the high of the day. Right there and then you saw kind of a sentiment shift very, very clearly. And then the most important part of that day was we reclaimed the five-day moving average. That was, again, if you've been watching these videos, the biggest short-term sentiment for at least a short-term who has control. The next level was, well, can we reclaim the 10-day moving average? And that's exactly what we did. And the most important part for the next day was what we saw in the Fed, right? Fed came out, they announced the 25 basis points. And usually when the Fed started speaking, especially in the last two, three months, whatever they said, it didn't make a difference. They would absolutely bury, absolutely bury the market. And what happened was that day, we had the NASDAQ up 250 points and Powell started talking, the NASDAQ went red. And again, just like the previous day, the bulls made a stand, the sellers got tired. Well, again, we started to live with unfortunate headlines or negative headlines, whatever you wanna call them. And the bulls gobbled up that bad news, they gobbled up the sellers again, and then they closed at the highs. And now the most important part was that once they close, because they finally reclaimed the 20-day moving average. If you guys have been seeing, we've been talking on the videos, they've been rejecting the 20-day moving average over and over again. So here was the rejection of the 20, here is the rejection of the 20, and here, and here, and here. So we finally reclaimed the 20-day moving average, and that was a very, very big deal. Because again, if you believe in the theory that stocks stray from supply to supply and demand to demand, well, that's the whole point. And we had a specific move, a measure potential to the 50-day moving average. And that's exactly what happened on Friday. And at some point, it got so aggressive on Friday's session that, especially in the morning, we'll get to the pivots in a second, it felt like almost, you know, like when you guys hear on social media, like a parabolic move on a small cap stock, it just goes nuts, just goes from like three to 30. And it feels like there's no sellers. That's exactly what happened at one point in the morning on square went nuts, the video went nuts. I mean, there's a lot of names that went nuts. I mean, pretty much everything. Anything to do with high-tech beta went absolutely crazy. And it almost felt like this kind of like this euphoric gas out, right? And, you know, the market came in a little bit, rested, and then just absolutely exploded into the clothes. You had Nasdaq rebalancing, you had option expiration. If some of you guys saw some really exaggerated moves into the clothes, like a Shopify, right? That was Nasdaq and balancing, right? You see these moves, right? This was Nasdaq and balancing. Even TMUS, which I still really like, had that big, big move and then we had the big, big move down. So there was rebalancing. If you guys saw those big, big moves, you saw big rebalancing happen at the clothes in case you guys are wondering. But the most important part now is where we are on the clothes. So here's kind of a no bias, right? And that's the whole point of technical analysis. It's not being biased. I was self-biased for three months. The last three days, it took me a little bit of time to kind of rebalance my brain. But again, you switch. You switch the sentiment, you switch to technical analysis based on charm value. And now is kind of where we are on a no biased approach of what happens next. So if you guys remember, we've had a series of two or three, well, this is number three. This is the third time around in the last three months that we've had a four day rally and then ultimately it stopped that supply. So let's kind of review this. So if you guys remember, we had this big move on January the 28th into supply, right? We had a big four day rally and people got very, very excited and say, hey, this is it. That's the bottom. The market is great. Google just announced 24 one earnings. Everything is great. The market fizzled right at supply and started going down. We started looking at February 23rd, had this big five day move, right? Into supply and then the market started going down. Now we got another four day move into a bigger supply zone. And now the question is, what happens next? And this is the greatest part about technical analysis is we don't have to guess, right? The bull side of it is, well, this is the highest close in this whole formation. We just rallied back to the 50 day moving average. Everything is great. This time is different, right? That's the bull stands. The bear stands is, well, I don't understand what the difference is. We've had rallies now, three separate occasions. They did exactly the same thing. Nothing materialistically has changed in the market. The war is still here. COVID is still here. Inflation is still here. Everything is horrible. Dan's mother-in-law is still crazy, right? What has changed? What has changed in this market that's telling you this time is different? And that's the beauty part about technical analysis. We don't have to guess. Right now, this is the highest close, right? This is definitely the highest close in this whole formation. We hit the 50 day moving average. We hit supply just the way we hit supply right here and here and here, right? That's the most important part. Now the question is, does the even most aggressive bull turn around and say, well, wait a minute, we just saw a move on the cues from 318 to 352. Is this too much too fast, right? That's a very valid question. Because again, the last thing you wanna do is buy something when it's overly exhausted and this is a pretty big exhausted run. So in my opinion, okay? In my opinion, well, out of my opinion, what I'd like to see, if this is indeed a truly start of, let's just call this a V-bottom, right? And again, it's a very, very weird name to say because it's not even happening yet. But if this is a case of a potential bottoming out process, number one, we need to rest, right? Like anything else you need to rest. It's like, again, you doing a marathon, you just ran 26 miles, you're very, very excited, you won. This is the marathon, they tell you, well, wait a minute, this is not a marathon. Now this is a triathlon. Now you have to bike five miles and you have to swim another 10 miles, right? You're exhausted, that's the most important thing. And the bear case is, well, yeah, nothing has materialistic changed. This is too far, too fast. This is all because of a knee jerk reaction from the Fed. They finally got something off the table. So we don't know yet, right? We don't know yet. So I think Monday is gonna be very, very important, right? If we gap up and if we gap up and get stuffed into supply, that's a problem. We're gonna roll over and start going lower again. But if we can get an inside day and sometimes red days are not bad. Red days are very, very structured. They're very, very necessary. If we can just get a day on Monday, right? That the NASDAQ is down 20, 30 points, maybe 40, 50 points, right? Something that's just, just pausing, right? Just pausing, resting, you know, just to kind of get its thoughts back together, its sea legs back together. What that's gonna do is, it's gonna get the bears frustrated because again, there is going not gonna be any selling pressure after a big four day move. And what that's gonna happen as well is, it's gonna have all the stocks that have big, big runs are gonna rest a little bit. And that's gonna also enable stocks that are still coming off the bottom to kind of wake up. So even though the indexes potentially could be red, you're still getting a very structured day because other names are being pulled up and you're possibly getting a situation that everything starts to rally in the next week or so. But again, that's a big if. And this 50 day moving average, it's kind of a big deal. So I think going into Monday morning, again, you have to be at least optimistic. I don't wanna use the word bullish, but you have to be at least optimistic that the bulls did the right thing, that this is the highest close in this whole formation over here. But again, the devil's advocate of this whole thing is we're still underneath the 200 day moving average. And again, you can make a case if you are a bear. Well, again, why is it different this time? We saw it once, we saw it twice. We're seeing it the third time, why is it different? Again, I'm not smart enough to figure that out. Let technical analysis, let price action tell us what's about to happen next. So again, we're pretty much optimistic going into Monday session. We are, again, not naive. We see where the 50 day moving average is. And again, if we gap up and we lose the 50 day moving average, again, very, very early, there is a chance that we could start rolling over and go lower. But the question is, is that roll over a potential for an inside day, which would be super bullish and super kind of necessary, or is it gonna be a start of something that we saw while right over here and over here and over here? Okay, to be determined. Okay, let price action tell us. So let's talk about the pivots. Incredibly aggressive week. It felt kind of weird from like Tuesday to start buying stocks. It felt weird for me. It took me a minute to kind of figure this all out. Is this the different, is this gonna be just like a regular, a little dead cat bound, something $2, $3, or something can be more. And stocks slowly but surely started coming out of massive, massive channels in. And you had ridiculous moves in NVIDIA this week, Tesla this week, I mean, everything. It doesn't make a difference. So we're just identifying the stocks that we trade, but everything went nuts. I mean, when you have an 8% rally on the Nasdaq in one week, it doesn't make a difference what it was. Anything that got a soul that everything, anything that reclaimed bottom levels was gonna rally. So let's talk about this. So obviously there was no video on Thursday night. That's my, that is my night off. So here is the initial pivot, right? On Thursday session on the NVIDIA, 246 needs to build to get to this 249, 251 supply. Any build can stretch it, right? So there was a big base coming out on Friday on the NVIDIA. 250 now needs a strong base to stretch. And the NVIDIA went absolutely nuts. Again, guys, always remember, the biggest moves are always gonna come from bottom channels, right? Always the bottom channels. So here is when the NVIDIA closed, it took out this whole channel here, all the supply and just absolutely exploded. One from 250 to 265, just a phenomenal move. I mean, there's nothing really to say. If it could stretch one more, maybe you could get to this 270 level attack this range. But again, just like everything else, it would really, really need a good rest, but absolutely phenomenal move. Tesla broke out on Friday, excuse me, on Thursday, Tesla 844 needs to take out 848 supply. If it can build over 850, now it could stretch. So here is the pivot, right? You can see the big move here. Here is the pivot, 875 needs to build for 890 push. Not only did Tesla take out that whole channel on Thursday, right? That whole channel on Thursday and got to 875. It took out 875 and traded right into supply here into this 905 50-day level. Obviously, all this channel here for next week is gonna be big, just like NVIDIA. It needs a little bit of a rest, a little bit of a digestion, but phenomenal move there on NVIDIA. This was definitely, on the DL, man, this was definitely one of the biggest moves of the week. Here's where it all started here. Square, 117 needs to build, right? 117 needs to build. Then you got 12850, then you got 132 macro. Square went out of its mind, okay? Just out of its mind. It broke out on Wednesday, so it took out the 17. You see this 17? It hit 50-day supply. It confirmed 50-day supply, just went absolutely nuts to this 128 level. It took out macro, 132, and the stock went all the way to 143. Again, if the market continues, this thing has room to 150, 152. I mean, just an insane move on Square. Coinbase started going as well, everything. Anything would beta when nuts. It's not really any stock-specific, but Coinbase, let's just call it 178, needs to build. Here is Coinbase. So it took out this whole bottom channel here at 178. Traded up to 187, has room to like 193, 94 if the market continues. Unit, again, here's the point. This is why I say, this is why I only trade beta. Here's the point why smaller cap names or smaller price names, they're just not the same. Look at the rally everything had. This thing actually had a nice looking chart. 1390, 14, needs to build, right? So this thing went up 25 cents, blah, blah, blah. That's why we trade beta. For me, at least it's a waste of time to trade anything else. GameStop reported earnings, didn't obviously never got down to these lows, but hey, they held, right? They held. Moderna went nuts. Here is Thursday's pivot into Friday. 170 needs to build to get to this 172 level. Any base above 72, 73 can stretch it. 174 needs to put a new base in Moderna. Here was Moderna, right? MRNA, right? So it took out this 170, traded to 72, built a 74 base and traded up to 181. Still has a little bit of room to 84. So that's that. And NVIDIA 255, next supply. You can see everything's just going nuts. One by one by one, blah, blah, blah, blah, coin going ups, everything go crazy. And that's it. So look, we're in a really good space, right? We're in a really good space. I think a lot of people are in a lot of, very, very good moods and it's good. It's really nice to see people kind of get back to smiling, okay? Guys, always remember that the stock market's not going to define you. If you're a long biased trader, you shouldn't ever be upset when the market goes against you. Just take, again, as we've been saying all along, take proactive measures. If the market goes, starts going down again, start hedging your positions. Short some cues against your positions. Short some spies against your positions. Don't just sit there and complain and be nasty to people. Again, market trades on both sides of the market. We have three months worth of a pretty good sell bias action. We had a good week of buy buying action. We're at the 50 day moving average on the cues. Let's see what happens next. Guys, God bless. I wish everybody a phenomenal weekend. And hopefully we'll see each other on Monday. Take care, everybody.