 Hello and welcome to the CMC Markets look ahead to the week beginning Monday the 3rd of July with me CMC Markets market analyst David Madden Now it's fair to say next week is a fairly busy week in terms of announcements But it's also fair to say the majority of the economic announcements are stacked towards the back end of the week Turning our attention first of all to the Eurozone We have service PMI numbers out from France Germany Italy and the Eurozone as a whole on Wednesday bearing in mind on Wednesday the 28th of June the European Central Bank had to clarify its stance In terms of its monetary policy They felt that mr. Mr. Draghi the president of the European Central Bank was misinterpreted by the markets the previous day Mr. Draghi had to clarify his positions by stating that he's content with the state of the economic growth in the eurozone But there's no need to actually change their economic policy and a monetary policy in the medium term The indicators that are coming out on Wednesday will give us a flavor for how well just how well the recovery in the eurozone is going Turning our attention to the United Kingdom We have some numbers out next week on Monday We have some manufacturing numbers Manifaction PMI numbers out on Wednesday We have the service manufacture service figures service PMI numbers out and on Friday with the manufacturing production numbers out from the UK We also had a bit of a central banker U-turn from Mark Carney the governor of the Bank of England on Wednesday the 28th of June when Mr. Carney in complete shock to his speech the previous week Said the Bank of England could look to remove some of the stimulus it has in place This flies in the face of his pop pop miss current Mr. Carney said the week before when he strongly suggested Interest rates in the UK will not be moving any time soon So the numbers out in terms of the service figures are from the UK are going to be by far the most important Seeing as a service sector in the UK accounts for the basket for much bigger proportion of the economy in manufacturing and manufacturing production Finally turning our attention to the United States of America on Wednesday. We have the Fed minutes out We'll be released at 7 p.m. That's going to be the Fed minutes covering the meeting We saw it in June when the interest rate was increased by 0.25 percent We're also going to this will give us an indication of what exactly the Federal Reserve are thinking on Thursday We have a number of important economic announcements from the United States We have jobless claims at a half one with the ADP on employment numbers at 2015 We also have the oil numbers at half three Usually the ADP numbers and the oil and oil inventory numbers from the US come out on Wednesday But because Tuesday is the 4th of July a holiday in the United States We're going to have the oil figures and the ADP figures out on the Thursday Which bring this round to the all-important Friday the first Friday of the month. So that means non-farm payrolls Now, let's just keep in mind regarding the US economy Unemployment is certainly heading in the right direction But what we have seen is a bit of a stagnation in terms of wage growth So as always with the with the actual non-farm payrolls announcement, we have the headline figure We may or may not get revision to the previous month's figure. We often get a revision We also keep we also have the unemployment rate to watch out for but we also have the wage growth numbers on a month-on-month basis and a Year-on-year basis Often you see scenarios whereby the market will jolt in a certain direction By looking at the headline figure, but sometimes that can actually be in contrast what we see with the revisions The unemployment rate and of course the wage data. So it is important to keep an eye on all the Economic announcements that are made from the United States at the time of the actual non-farm payrolls figure Now taking a look at some of the markets some more popular markets starting off with the Eurozone Let's just take a quick look at the single currency. It's it's performed quite well in the last number of sessions given we have such a Strong performance in the Euro on the back of Mr. Draghi's comments We're currently testing we're currently trading just above 1.14 On the Euro versus the US dollar bearing in mind this video is recorded on Thursday the 29th of June Just gone midday. So some of the prices may change may change In the in the remainder of the week the Euro has is actually now trading at as highest Level in about one year. So that is very much Bullish and it's the sentiment is very much positive and it's very much bullish Should we should we make a decent hold of push beyond the resistance at 1.14 28? traders and then and buyers and then going to be looking towards 1.14 95 Any pullbacks in the Euro versus the US dollar may get support in around the 1.13 28 region And then also the 1.13 the figure region Bearing in mind Momentum has now actually turned positive on the on the daily chart We could be looking at a bit of a further gains for the single currency Turning our attention now to the pound versus the US dollar Seeing as Mr. Kearney gave supplies in the hawkish commentary on Wednesday the 28th of June We've seen a similar upwards move in the pound versus the US dollar We're currently trading at 1.29 75 There's some resistance in around that region. I believe it's 1.29 77 the same resistance should we make a decent move beyond that? traders buyers will then be looking towards 1.30 47 and the resistance north of that again will be at 1.31 20 Pullbacks in the pound versus the US dollar may encounter support at the 50-day moving average Which comes into play at 1.28 64 and below that at 1.28 the figure Similar to the euro versus the US dollar on the daily chart The momentum has actually now turned positive up to the upside so we could see further gains for the pound versus the US dollar Taking a look now at the price of oil It's obviously been in the news quite a bit recently and looking ahead the next week We do have the oil imagery figures coming out If the big picture for oil is clearly to the downside, but we have seen the energy bounce back in in the last week or so Levels to watch out for to the upside should this rally continue It's going to be $48 and then also the resistance could come into play at $49 Likewise, we are seeing a turnaround in momentum, which previously was negative for quite some time is now turning positive There are several factors at play with the you with the with the oil market a Combination of a week US dollar a slight decline in oil production numbers from the United States And a feeling that the major sell-off we witnessed between late May and the middle of June was very much overdone So for the time being the momentum is clearly to the upside or oil But should the oil market turn over on itself, which it has been doing in recent months What we could see as a pullback We could see oil headings heading south yet again to 46 35 and should we move below that on Brent crude oil the level to watch out for under that again will be 44 26 I'll just take one last look at a one last market look at is gold given that it's Had the inverse relationship to the US dollar and come non-farm payrolls. It's often quite heavily traded the gold Market has been in a very clear and very clear rise Okay, a very clear upper trend since the since the middle of December 2016, but as we can see here It's sorted in the consolidation area, which is which is sort of trapped in between the fifth a day moving average at 1255 and gaining support from the 200-day moving average at 1236 looking at the kind of wider range Of the of the of the support line connecting the support from the mail. Oh, we are seeing gold See trading in around The the 1250 level which coincides with the trend line support Connecting the law of May with the law of December It's almost as if the buyers and sellers are kind of just in for control whether whether we're going to Whether we're going to move north back above The trend line support and continue the upward trend that we've been in since mid December or where there's we've actually got an outbreak below that support line We've already traded through through below at once and I did manage to get support from the 200-day moving average at 1236 Should we move south and should we should we move below 1236? The next level to watch out for to the downside and gold is going to be the low in May at 1215 and should we actually move to the upside in gold? The level to watch out for to the first and foremost will be 1280 and then beyond that We'll be looking to the 2017 high of 1296 so that is essentially a roundup of the major markets that major markets to watch out for what we could see in terms of moves and bearing in mind by far the most important Economic announcement from next week is going to be the non-farm payrolls figure at half one on the Friday and bearing in mind We are going to be having our as always our CMC markets webinar covering the non-farm payrolls Good luck trading have a good trading week and tune in next week. Thank you very much