 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Team USA's hopes of winning yet another World Cup this year have gone up in flames as they did fall to Sweden earlier on this week But that does open up a lot of ambiguity at the top end of the pool for this year's women's World Cups We try to decide who will hoist that trophy for this year We're gonna talk to Dr. Ed Feng get his read on the remaining contenders and talks of matches coming up here in the round of 16 and the round of 8th. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network My name is Jim Sannis. I am a digital media managing editor for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Feng you can find his work over at the power right doc I think you check him out on Twitter or X whatever it's called at the power I can add tough laws for the US team were you up at 4 or 5 a.m. Eastern to watch the loss of Sweden this week No, I was not up my son wanted to get up and At the last minute, I was like no, let's just let's just sleep in We'll turn it on first thing when we get up. We'll watch it. So yeah, it's nice family morning, you know Yeah, we've got together watched it obviously disappointing For the US women's national team not as disappointing for my Sweden futures true Which I actually yeah, I mean I didn't have any any kind of hedge on it Not not that you really should hedge when you're in the right 16, but So Sweden futures and and I think if you follow this tournament if you follow the the US team It was pretty clear that this could have happened, right? You play I thought they played better than Sweden I thought they were the better team out there as they probably should be because I think they are a slightly better team they played that way but It certainly not out of the question that you get You know you go 0-0 into extra time still 0-0 and then you're losing a shootout. That was very tight So in my newsletter, I did have my favorite bet Jim even total goals I didn't have that on the match and I was actually like I think we had talked about it like a couple weeks ago There's a map we're looking at and I was like, oh, you know It didn't look like there was any more value over at DK on that bet, but there was on this one It was awesome Technically add a zero is not a number. So it's not even Should I trust the the math PhD on this should I defer to you when it comes to this kind of stuff You can defer. I can show you my my fandal You can't count that has a winning bet on the even total goals if it's great it as a win It is a win. It's an even number. Absolutely Talking to talking about Sweden we talked about them before the tournament They were 18 to 1 to win it all we talked about them the week after 2 and they're 25 to 1 later on and they shortened a lot Obviously, they are now into the round of 8. We'll talk about the futures market We'll talk about Sweden and we'll do a postmortem on Team USA here in a second as well But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts We are back here every weekday from now until what I mean the end of NFL season I'll be here every day talking some bets with you also up over on the faddle YouTube page and fandal TV plus big Thank you to Tom Vecchio for filling in for me while I was gone this past week Tom that's always doing a great job both here on covering the spread and over on the solo shop But we are back and ready to rumble until the end of NFL season with five shows per week here on Covering the spread make sure subscribe on the podcast feed or fandals YouTube page or over on Fandal TV plus have you ever started a player in your fantasy lineup who scores three points while someone in your bench puts up 20? Well with fandals NFL best ball drafts You don't have to worry about that draft your team each week The highest scoring lineup from your roster will be used as you battle for first place all season long These can be free to play or for money and range from three to 12 players The NFL season will be here before you know it so head over to fandals today and get in on the action eligibility restrictions apply Now let's start things off your head by talking about that team USA defeat in Sweden or two Sweden I should say I Think that we want to look at this like an analytical perspective because obviously there's disappointment knowing that they Weren't able to get past Sweden. It was a very good team They had I would say kind of a shaky group stage when we talked in the group stage You were talking about how their expected goals numbers were still pretty good. It didn't translate into actual results So when you look at this team on the whole taking all four matches together What do the underlying numbers say about what team USA did in this year's World Cup? I think the US women were fine I think they played a lot better than obviously the the results showed as you mentioned they did not finish well and There are obvious consequences when you don't finish. Well, you you you tend to not win We're gonna talk about a team a little bit later that has the exact opposite situation going on but you know, I mean I think The narrative Heading into this World Cup was that you know is the rest of the world catching up And I think before the start of the World Cup I knew that that was a true thing and We're gonna talk a little bit later about Spain and and and I think a lot of these European nations are catching up I still think the US is ahead of almost all of those nations But you know as my number suggested before the start of the tournament like the the margin isn't big The rest of the world is getting better You know overall honestly, I I don't think US soccer as the best development strategy I'm starting to see this actually like firsthand in terms of you soccer Tend to favor size and athleticism more so than we should in soccer I think that filters up to the national teams. I think that is changing I think we are doing better than we were two decades ago And I still think the US women are either at the top of the world or close to the top of the world So I certainly expect for them to contend in future World Cups But you know, it's not a shock that they couldn't get past Sweden It's you know, it could have gone either way and really even even as we headed into that shootout and You know, if you didn't see it like, you know, Sweden needed to convert one To to go through it was it was like the seventh shot of That that they had taken and the ball, you know, the keeper makes a save and the ball pops up And it looks like it didn't go in from from the television And and then you see the ref saying that it did go in and unfortunately at that point Like there's almost no chance that the ref got it wrong because they're two lines women We're like right there on the line Rear view of it and like the broadcast makes us wait like 20 minutes to see the replay Right like watching Sweden celebrate. So that was rough. That's that's obviously like a wrong way to lose. It did go over the line So, yeah, I mean overall I'm very optimistic for the where the US women are You know, if you think about it like around a 16 exit is like utter failure for the women and a nice job men So same exact result very different reaction. Yeah, I think that if you take Together their performance in the World Cup You look at the underlying numbers and then you pair that with what your number said going in It kind of feels like once you account for the variants that that are involved, especially when it's low scoring matches It seems like the US's performance was closer to expectation Than what perception is right now because perception right now seems like like you said utter failure Because based on the results, but it seems like based on the way they played and based on what your number said going in it kind of just seems like this was within the range of outcomes and always a possibility because the tightening that you mentioned heading in Yeah, for sure. This is definitely within the range of outcomes and And yeah, I mean I would completely agree with that and hopefully we'll get better results in the future Yeah, absolutely, and we'll see how that that goes They got four more years to regroup before the next World Cup and we'll see what transpires There are a lot of important matches until that time as well a lot change over to with this team But some youth there for sure as well, and we'll talk team USA once they are back on the map But a lot of till a lot of teams still in action and let's talk about a couple more round of 16 matches coming up later on And this week we have got Columbia taking on Jamaica Columbia's money line to advance minus 205 We got Jamaica plus 165 France taking on Morocco France money line is minus 3500 So we talked before about how you're probably not gonna be betting a lot of matches with money lines That slanted any thoughts for you in Columbia Jamaica or is that one in your eyes? Probably pretty fairly priced It looks pretty fairly priced. These are two teams that were not expected to make it this far. Columbia actually looked pretty good you know the numbers don't really like either of these teams and Personally, I haven't seen either room play so I don't really have an opinion outside of what the numbers say you know probably Probably neither teams not gonna make it too much further. They're both near the bottom of the odds to win at all We do have some pretty fun round of eight matches already set the first two are spain against Netherlands and Japan taking on Sweden Obviously we talked about Sweden We talked about Spain a lot before too, and we saw the Netherlands taking on the US So I mean look at these two round of eight games any value you're seeing across those two numbers based on your earth Those two games based on your numbers Yeah, absolutely. Um, I will give you yeah, let's break down both games So in terms of Spain versus the Netherlands, I think Spain's the best team in this tournament I don't think it's really even close the only thing that has kind of gone against that is a 4-0 thing Drubbing against Japan obviously that was a bet that I talked about on the show that did not work out My apologies, but the XG that game was actually pretty close and I think From what I have seen of Spain and it's a little bit of a bias sample because I didn't watch much of that Japan game But I did watch them completely dismantle Norway I think it was whoever they had in the last round and I had I'd seen them a little bit earlier in the group stage I definitively think they are the best team in this tournament They're facing the Netherlands team that is not as highly regarded. They're missing one of their superstars Also, Daniela Daniel van de donk is out for this match because of card accumulation And she is one of their better players Definitely a solid European side But you cannot honest, you know, like coming into this tournament, you could kind of tell that the markets were not very high on the Netherlands I like Spain to go through here. I actually bet them to advance. I think at this price I think I got it this morning. I do like them in advance. I do think I Do you think they're the best team in this tournament and I expect them to go on and it's one of these things where You know, it's certainly not a number thing When I look at just goals in Big matches since the last World Cup Adjust for strength the schedule. It actually has spanned about a 35% chance to advance when you look at XG over the last World Cup and Euro Spain has a 68% chance to advance here. So the numbers are kind of all over the place I think at this point in the tournament, especially with like injuries, especially, you know, even before the start of the tournament Not having van de donk. I Tend to not lean on those numbers quite as much time to lean on what I've seen what the markets are saying and a little bit to that extent, but I think the Spain women are the best team in this tournament And I like them to advance here at this price The money line right now as you mentioned for Spain to advance over at van de donk sports book is minus 188 The implied odds there are 65% you mentioned 68% based on the XG And I think that it's probably encouraging for you when That number at least even if both models don't agree when that number of lines of the eye test The eye test tells you that Spain is this dominant team that should be well regarded They're facing a Netherlands team that is not a hundred percent right now It's probably reassuring for you when the eye test that for you watching this team aligns with at least what one of the models to say Yeah, absolutely, and I think Spain as a nation they the women Attacked a lot in that round of 16 and and that's something that the men sometimes don't do they they tend to Be like hey, we're Spain and we're just gonna possess the ball and we're gonna kick it around the midfield without Acknowledging the fact that gold differential is what matters in games. The women didn't have that problem They they attacked even when they were up 3-1 So I really I really do like them here Okay So that is Spain and minus 180 to advance taking on the Netherlands You can get that number over at Vanduul sports book other game is Japan taking on Sweden Japan minus 172 on the money line to advance Sweden is plus 140 and you've got that Sweden future Japan is a team you were skeptical of before but now had that impressive game against Spain Any read for you on this batch Ed or is it kind of a stay away because Japan is over performed so much so far No, this is actually my biggest take of the entire tournament There is no way that Japan should be the favorite here no way and when I saw this line Even though I have that Sweden future. I I definitely like Sweden to advance I think Sweden's probably the second best team remaining in this tournament The markets still haven't really given that credit like you can actually get 10 to 1 right now I think for Sweden to win this. I don't think that respects how good this team is It's a really solid veteran team and yeah, they got all played by the US But you know us is a really good team. I think that oh and let's talk about Japan Versus the US right like the US has gotten docked for not finishing well despite having high XG It's it's the exact opposite story for Japan. They are finishing extremely well They had their XG's been fine. It was really particularly good against Zambia But not so much in those other group stage matches against Spain and the other team in their group The game The game against In their last round they they very much could have lost that, you know, it ended up being like a 4-1 win For Japan, but they there was an own goal in there that Japan scored on to start There was another bad mistake by the other team Japan had a really lovely goal as well So Japan is finishing really well And it's kind of the opposite of the United States I went back and looked at some of the work that I did before the tournament Japan didn't have one of the top 10 odds to win this overall, you know, there were a lot of countries Ahead of them. I'm looking at my list right now. You know, for example, like brazil was 32 to 1 that was ahead of them. Canada was 34 to 1 Also ahead of japan pre flop before the tournament started the Uh, the impression has obviously changed. Japan is getting results Uh, the xg kind of doesn't support that I think sweden is the second best team In this tournament. I think they're really good and it hasn't necessarily shown up Entirely in terms of the goal column. I don't think I don't think sweden should be an underdog here And again, the money line for them is plus 140 over at fangirl sports book Ed already has a future on sweden with fine adding the plus 140 money line to advance as well The game you're referencing was japan against norway the round of 16 the final there was japan 3 norway 1 Despite the the uh the own goal there as well So let's take a look at the future market and just kind of like take a look at it here because you were talking about sweden And how you can get them a 10 to 1 which you can right now over at fangirl sports book england is a favorite of 2 to 1 Spain is plus 340 now you've talked a lot about spain being The class of this field It sounds like i'm just trying to you know read based on what you said It sounds like you may have interest in spain a plus 340 or sweden at 10 to 1 Are those juicy enough ed? Well, let's let's pretend you don't have the sweden futures already in your pocket Would those numbers entice you with where they currently sit? I think so I I like I think there's value in both of them. I I haven't bet this uh spain at plus 340 I probably should I haven't done it yet, uh, but I think that's right I mean when you think about england as a favorite I think that makes sense in terms of they were one of the favorites kind of coming into the tournament They haven't looked particularly good in terms of xg Actually had a zero zero draw with nigeria where they had like less xg than Nigeria in in the round of 16 So I haven't actually seen them play yet. So I don't really have an opinion there, but I haven't seen spain in play spain play and they've been really impressive So yeah, I mean if you wanted to out with some spain and some sweden I I definitely think there's some value there Okay, again, spain is plus 340 to win it all right now since sweden is 10 to 1 Ed is also like, you know, the money lines spain minus 180 to advance against netherlands and sweden at plus 140 Taking on japan that's where our things up for this week You're uncovering the spread talking about the women's world cup We'll sell more women's world cup discussion coming up later on on this podcast Well, and then ed college football week zero is just around the corner But before we get to college football week zero before we get to NFL as well Or we'll have you on twice per week during NFL season. You got that bash coming up. So you're out in vegas That sounds like it's a lot of fun. It's not like you've had a great time in the past and Kind of a nice way to get football season really cranking back up again For sure. It's a it's a nice opportunity now that bet bash is in august to see everyone right before the start of season See what's going on with a lot of friends in the industry. So it should be a great event There's going to be you know, I think more panels this year and a lot of networking opportunities So i'm looking forward to heading out to the desert seeing how hot it is in the middle of the day out in the sun But uh, yeah, it'll be a lot of fun I just spent the past week in the dr in july which was or july slash august which was quite hot So I can relate a lot more humid in the nidicare public that it is in in vegas though So ed have fun. Enjoy people are looking for five nuggets saturday looking for your work. Where can they find all that? Yeah, check it out at thepowerank.com Sign up for my free email newsletter Every week. I have five nuggets saturday Was lucky enough to have no ascender guard starting a baseball game on this past saturday So under four and a half strikeouts was pretty good for for a guy who just quite isn't quite the same picture that he was a couple years ago seems like And then uh, really lucky that got a little value on the even total goals for for the us as well us Versus sweden match and then also in the newsletter and actually on the podcast too I'll be having a 10-part preview series for the 20 23 football season both college and nfl So definitely something there'll be some bets in there. There'll definitely be some insights So check that out at thepowerank.com All righty, make sure you follow ed on twitter slash x at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis as well You can also follow fandal research at fandal research to find All the new home for all of number fires content again Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and check us out on the fandal youtube page And fan duel tv plus. We are back once again tomorrow talking some baseball with a loaded slave for tomorrow We'll talk to you all that this has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network