 Hi, my name's Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you are a new watch and you found this channel By accident and the YouTube algorithm Recommended it to you a warm welcome to you and if you are returning Inequally warm welcome to you and if you do find the videos that I provide every week Useful to your trading. Please. Don't forget to like as well as subscribe and press that notification button for all of The latest videos as well as I've got a massive catalog of past videos that you can also go through on my YouTube channel a few years, right? So Anyways, just a quick one before we get into the fundamentals as well as some technical analysis in the week ahead Our trading 180 process in case you're new is really just applying the best the fundamental analysis and Technical analysis to our trades. It's not one or the other We use a combination of both but our directional bias is really determined by the fundamentals And how we enter is determined by supplying demand strategies, right and our risk management. So moving on to the week ahead and In the week ahead This is trading economics comm quick synopsis Ukraine will remain in focus with many Sorry with any new developments set to create volatility, right? So there's all eyes on what's happening in Ukraine Also investors will be paying attention to the covert situation as the virus is again spreading in Europe and Asia Source some data on that and apparently China of spikes and crazy spike in them in China about with regards to the Covid Cases and causing lockdowns in Chinese cities absolutely Finally speeches from several Fed officials should provide further clues on the course of the US economy So I'm going back to that covert situation that actually may produce some more risk-off sentiment Risk-off is basically when there is a lot of fear uncertainty and doubt in the market. So let's see What happens with with that? So getting into the actual charts and a bit more fundamentals and Going to the dollar index and a dollar index just a measure of dollar strength The DXY against various currencies major currencies like that The pound the euro and the yen and this is like last week's analysis and really nothing's really changed from last week Technically and I was just going over obviously what we were expecting last week from a 25 Wait basis point or zero point two five percent Hike which actually did come right so the central bank is hawkish wrong Wrong tab so yes Fed sees Fed hawk see half a point hikes with data screaming action and this was from the 18th of March so Bullard says he favours raising rates above three percent before the year-end one-time dove Kashkari backs increase to cool price pressures. So inflation is going higher And getting a bit out of control right? There's lots of contributing factors to that And so it's not only putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to high crates But many other central banks right because of inflation it goes high Which is devaluation of the currency the central bank has to try to appreciate the currency to combat that so the Federal Reserve's Pivot to fighting inflation was cast into sharp relief from Friday as the central banks hawkish wing It's a faster pace of policy tightening and a one-time dove said there could be a case for Aggressive action. So even that dove is turning, you know a bit a bit hawkish or a bit more neutral at least so from that perspective You know the dollar for me out of all of the currencies is still really the one to buy So if we're looking back at the dollar index I was saying it's from last week's analysis that nobody knows where the price is gonna go higher or lower But the main thing is actually just to wait for you know some pullbacks, right? And we're not paying it We're not buying the dollar index currency or trading that currency But we can use this as some sort of confluence to understand when the dollar is pulling back overall against You know most of the currencies and if it does you know certain zones or price does a lineup of certain zones That can be a really nice area to look for potential long trades. So from a daily supply and demand zone The nearest one is going to be at 97 so if prices do fall a little bit doesn't mean that fundamentals don't work It just means that the smart money took money at the top while everyone was buying, right on the fact They were selling the rumor. That's pretty much what happened, right? They sold the rumor because they made money. Yeah from way, you know weeks and months ago they were making money buying the dollar and really the Johnny come lately's On the fact that they hyped rates ended up Potentially anyway and depending on the on the pair They traded because not all pairs actually fell away, but if you were you know didn't choose your pairs wisely And you were trading that day, then you may have got chopped out a little bit, but Overall you for me anywhere. I'm always looking for pullbacks on the dollar For buy trades currently in the current Economic states so going forward. I always think you know any pullbacks down to any kind of demand zones will be nice Confluence especially when we you know looking at for example Pairs like the dolly in or the dollar Swiss if you do feel that the dollar should want to weaken for whatever reason then You know you just your supply zones would you would use as confluence on the dollar index Now moving on to the dollar yen dollar yen now for me I was really waiting for a pullback, but the yen being really really weak matter of fact And lagging behind central bank wise second and economy wise and actually on our spreadsheet on our custom spreadsheet at the dollar yen When we look at strength divergence You've got the dollar which is ranked number two at the moment base currency But the two one twos and threes being the strongest pairs one being an absolute strongest From an economic perspective fundamental perspective and eight being the weakest of quote currency We look for you know strength divergences and the dollar yen You know it's been on a bit of a tear We've really been trading this dollar or trying to try to trade it But we've been long the dollar yen for a while now. I Just haven't got an inch in the dollar yen I've got a nice entry in the dollar Swiss a few weeks ago Which actually turned out to be a really good trade this week took profit on a nice 10 to 1 trade This week and you know got a little bit open a little Percentage open just in case prices do run a bit higher. They pulled back this week, but I'll just add into that trade But from a dollar yen perspective You know fundamentally we you know, we should really be buying the Or say I should anyway and the guys in the private group are buying near dollar over the yen at the moment Yes, there is a bit of an extreme and prices did kind of go through that long-term Supply zone zoom back a bit and again. I was saying this for last week again go back to the last week's video I was always saying that you know at level from 2017, right? Why is that going to be significant just because it's there doesn't mean it's significant Whatever drove prices down there. Is it going to be the same thing that's going to drive prices down here? You know five years later and the answer is who knows, right? But currently I'm not a buyer of the of the yen not at all For me, I'm probably looking for a pullback but that pullback is going to be quite a deep pullback But there are opportunities few opportunities of prices Do kind of come back? All right pull back a little bit. Yeah Then I'm probably looking for something a pattern like this where you see You know prices come down make higher highs again, and then a pullback into that zone right there That would be a really nice demand zone or if prices make continues to make highs then a pullback into what would be? Demand zone here. All right, right there. That'd be what I'm looking at but for the guys that know That have taken the the market maker course as well by Mark Chapman and that are in the group you understand that this Also is an unfair auction. So you've got to be Careful about that as well because that obviously has to be Completed so just be cautious of that when buying the or weary or at least Acknowledge that when taking that type of trade, right? You don't necessarily always want to buy at highs and understanding that You've got an unfair auction below you Anyways the part for these positions is to the upside been saying that pretty much all year and Yeah, just waiting for that pullback. So from a supply zone perspective Nothing really I'm not looking to really buy the yen, but if you are looking to buy the end There's still nothing here You'd have to get wait for proof of value prices to really make lower lows lower highs and then a pullback into what would be a Potential supply zone if it did, you know pull back and make lower lows lower highs Then that would be that right and in fact any worries regarding Covid in in Japan so in China and the spread of Covid could actually Force money into again the safe haven asset like the yen and then that could push that down So let's see but again, you'd have to say proof of value first then a pullback then a new entry there. I wouldn't start Just shorting randomly into thin air, right? Dollar Swiss dollar Swiss. So, yeah took profit pretty much around these areas earlier in the week and Yes, I was saying to the guys I'm waiting for really a pullback Into into the demand zone. So if we do get something like this that'd be really nice to add into this trade and Any any kind of long trades? So my entry was literally all the way down here On the 21st of February took a few weeks to to play out, but It is what it is, right? That's the nature of Fundamental when the swing trading so yeah, for me, that's where the zone is to look for any kind of pullbacks If prices can get there we did have a Nice gets market high around here that prices have reacted from so let's see what happens But again in a risk-off environment The dollar can act as a and it does act as a as a definite Risk-off currency and money can flow into that But there's also was well going to be pullbacks in a risk-off environment for me I think the path for the distance is still to the upside and I'm looking at any kind of pullbacks back into this Demand zone as a as a as a trade obviously if you were looking to get short and that was really the area of the 94 50s To look for any short trades if you are looking for short trades Then that would be really what you're looking for but understand that the more times a level is touched the weaker it becomes so Just be cautious when taking that the best really trade is when you you know the first touch of a fresh level Looking at the dollar cad dollar cad Last week's analysis. I was saying again. Nothing's really changed. You've got two central banks strong central banks and I say strong but two central banks that are currently appreciating their currency and Hiking rates for me. I'm not you know keen on trading Currencies where both central banks are doing the same thing So with that being said For me didn't really have an opinion on it But what happened this week is that prices did actually come down this week Meaning that the Canadian dollar was a stronger out of two again, maybe some profit-taking going on with the dollar Either way You know you had an opportunity to get short potentially from last week So prices did pull back a little bit up into that zone and then to the downside now Going forward. I would probably expect prices to stay within some sort of range between this high and potentially either this low or this low so prices could just stay like this just literally auction between these two areas or between this area here, but For me, I'm not I'm totally indifferent to this this currency pair meaning that You know, it's either a buyer or a sell depending on how you see it Again, I'll put a fresher area down into this 2550 area would be that would be this buy trade if you want to buy the dollar if you want to be a buyer of the Canadian dollar then we've got a supply zone right there. In fact, I think this whole area would be supply But I would probably prefer to maybe buy at the market high would be if I was looking at that technically Yeah, so that's pretty much it dollar, so New Zealand dollar US dollar and New Zealand dollar I've strengthened this week. The New Zealand dollar is actually number one ranked the strongest on our currency spreadsheet New Zealand dollar which is here base currency Number one and you've seen that kind of play out this week Right this week. You've seen that play out again, not necessarily the best pair to trade in the world simply because you've got two currencies that are looking to appreciate their two central banks that look into appreciate their currencies So for me, you've got this was I don't know why this is not been updated, but there and There and I think technically that's actually decent for a short trade technically Taking this but that's decent for a short trade Really nice Fresh area of supply and it takes a lot of boxes in that area There is again some demand in here I know traders don't necessarily like to see this, you know this type of demand as far as you know I'd see gaps in it, but this is just the way that demand You know plays out, right? And if you get wide areas of demand and all you're doing is just breaking that down into With with levels of support and resistance You've a horizontal diagonal, right? So if I was looking at taking that trade in the top of that zone would be Would be where I'd look for a trade because you've got Resistance a bit of resistance there and a bit of support there So if prices do come down, you've also got support resistance traders looking at that area there I think the lower end of the zone though is really where I would want to look for a buy trade If I was buying a New Zealand dollar against US dollar or if I'm looking for a sell trade Then that right now would be where the trade is But you'd have to believe that the dollar US dollar was an absolute bargain at this price and I have no idea And when it comes to where this this currency pair Because again in the straight fight who would win that's the question that you need to ask yourself and if it's an even fight It's a harder trade to take pound dollar pound dollar, right pound dollar Again, we did get proof of value from this demand zone November 2020 So the market is obviously seen at 130 round number as a decent area to look for either profit taking or buying of the pound the pound You know Bank of England did raise rates so They did as was expected, but the tone has turned more cautious. So the Bank of England are actually worried about The impact or more worried I guess about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflicts and they think that potentially the The economy may not grow as much as expected And that's what that's what as well the the financial institutions are interpreting that as well So although they hiked rates just like the The Federal Reserve again, you've got two central banks looking to hike rates now. I think This pair again is very difficult to trade fundamentally Because in a straight fight who wins, right? But I probably lean more towards the US dollar the pound on our spreadsheet is is number five. So I I do think that the pound is probably looking a bit weaker Although they are looking to appreciate their currency But whether you know, the big money will flow into that will create demand for the big money to flow into the pound There's another thing I think in the short term it should do but in the medium to long term a lot of question marks around that Anyways, if you do want to get short now is a really nice time and buy the dollar against the pound or there But if you are looking to buy the pound against the dollar, then I think what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna create a New demand zone right here Again, not the strongest area of demand. I do like that hard in hard out, but I do think that area is okay for a potential But for a potential buy trade and also as well if you do want to find out a bit more about accessing our spreadsheet as well as You know Supply and demand strategies just a quick reminder that we do Have the the enrollment starting on the 28th of March 2022, which is in eight days from now from this recording of this video so lots of Of supply and demand Information and trading strategies as well as fundamental and mentoring that I do with the guys in the group who are really doing well if you want to find out a bit more about how the guys have been doing and how they apply fundamental analysis to our supply and demand strategies, I have a playlist of interviews with some of the guys who are in the room have a watch of that as well and I'll put the link in the description box as well as the Top right-hand side it should pop up or popped up already So definitely have a listen at that lots of great information from the guys And if you are struggling with the technicals and want to learn fundamentals and want to be mentored Then you know, you have at least eight days to join anyways guys getting back to the charts and Looking at the euro dollar euro dollar. So For me, I think I think some traders did end up getting in short around here I think this was a bit of a stop-hunt around here I missed this trade because I was actually it wasn't around Had a bit of an emergency But the guys in the group did manage to get involved. I think on the Thursday or Friday And I think there was some profits in that there is a nice level Just above that. So that trade wasn't necessarily a supply zone on this chart Anyway, I think it was a supply zone on the on a FXCM Broker, but from a short trade perspective on the Oanda broker, then you've got to really wait for the 112s There is in fact some positive news coming out and I think what this European Central Bank of doing is that is their jaw boning, right? When I say jaw boning I'm talking about like the moral suasion as they say is that because the euro has been getting weaker It pushes inflation higher. So what the ECB have to do is they have to talk up the the euro They have to you know, give the impression that they are potentially looking to high crates and they're saying it's realistic So ECB is not says 2022 rate hike is realistic. Now, whether they do it or not is another thing, right? They might not but they have to give the market the belief that they may do and then so the market will price in and start buying the euro By the rumor, right from early whether the fact comes is Secondary, but if the market believes that they're gonna high crates Then what that should do is appreciate the euro and hopefully and hopefully you know Get inflation back to their central banks 2% target. So I do think that this is they're just talking it up I don't think it's actually realistic considering that the Ukraine Russia Ukraine Conflict is hurting the ECB European economy, right? So there's they're the most affected by the European Of what by the conflict because because of where they are geographically. So I think they're gonna talk it talk it up But whether the market believes them or not I still think the path of the resistance is to the downside if the market does come up a bit higher I still would for me anyway, I still am looking for shorts, right? I think definitely that's that's in the cards if you do want to be a buyer of the euro for whatever reason Actually, in fact this area here does become now a bit of a demand zone Actually, my friend we go back to the Euro dollar. Yeah, so I think that area does become an area of demand. So any pullbacks into that zone there Which is the 109 8 8 as where you want to look for a potential buy but for me Again, I'm looking for a potential short trades if prices can come back a bit on this trade Ozzy dollar Ozzy dollar and Ozzy dollar again Australian dollar has been, you know, really Strong and appreciating and this is really due to commodity prices You know going higher the Australian dollar also as well as being priced in as a potential rate hike as well at some point in the second half of this year Again against the US dollar is not necessarily the best buy in the world but from looking at last week's analysis You can see where pretty much the levels were prices didn't really react to that zone there, but they did react here So for me now You can kind of look for any kind of buy trades if you want to be a buyer of the Australian dollar against the US dollar Somewhere around here if you're looking for any kind of sell trades I think now is actually a decent time But again the question you have to ask yourself is why is the Australian dollar You know bargain or why is the US dollar bargain and for here The it would be the US dollar you'd be buying if you're shorting this currency pair Why is the US dollar bargain against the Australian dollar? I mean technically it should be at some point, but I'm not Prepared to put my capital one on that currency pair. I'm looking for the best currency pairs and that definitely ain't it Ozzy yen now this is a pair that I am interested in It's waiting for a pullback again the guys in the group were really looking for Buy trades been looking for buy trades But when you have strong fundamental analysis or risk sentiment sometimes It just doesn't pull back to the zones that you want, right? But there will be a pullback there will be a pullback which has to be patient And so any pullbacks into a zone here I think is going to be a very very nice trade very nice trade to the upside the 8550 To 85 round number. I think is going to be really nice even at 86 is and for those of you who were Again are in the group and know about capture pain belief This is a decent capture pain belief zone right there. I'm not going to explain it for those of you who are Who are not in the group but sir just for those of you who are just know that that and I'll do You know, I do my members a technical analysis and I've come out and I'll definitely do this in the members technical analysis video Tomorrow on Monday, but that area there is going to be nice. I think that 85 80 From 85 87 area is where I'm looking at potentially getting long but from a daily Supply and what daily demand zone It has to start from the 85 52 areas So let's see what happens there and again in the evening a risk-off environment I Think every risk-off environment has to be taken as Individuals it's not a case of just you know risk off by the yen and the Swiss franc and sell the Australian dollar every event has to be Really kind of analyzed and the reason why the Australian dollar is making a higher highs against you against the Japanese yen It's not only fundamentally a day ahead, but from a from a risk sentiment perspective the The Russia-Ukraine conflict doesn't really affect the Australian dollar Geographically on the Australian economy geographically They don't really do that much business with with the Russians right not as much as the Japanese economy and I went over this from in last week's Videos, so if you if you don't understand watch last week's video and I'll break it down for you Got some graphs there, which basically shows why? Or the impact in the in the business and the trade deals that Japan do with Russia in comparison to the Australian economy, so Any pullbacks for me are by opportunities Again, probably maybe some China risk-off sentiment might be a reason for a would be a reason for a pullback And also as well just be careful or be cautious that that COVID The spread of COVID doesn't turn into again another pandemic where there are you know lockdowns But let's see what happens from for now. My bias is to the upside for now And then we finally got gold right and gold Again saying a couple weeks ago, you know that price to come up to the all-time high Right bit of a pullback this week again prices pull back even more but now we've come down to this demand zone so Like everything as I was saying before when you have a large move to the upside Hardly any pullback you're gonna get pullback to what fair value. This is a bargain area This is a expensive area in between that has to be fair value It's a fair value is where the market is pulled back to in its demand zone You can see there's been some buying here and let's see what happens in and around that zone to the upside I think gold is you know store is definitely still a buy You know with the amount of risk sentiment inflation That is going on. I do think that the This pullback is a really nice opportunity If you missed out on the bull run say bull run But if you missed out on that massive move from February Beginning of February and the January now is an opportunity to start to buy gold and if again, you know risk off remains in a sense of High inflation You know the Ukraine war as well as the spread of COVID now You've really got everything lined up The only thing you really haven't got lined up is is the fact that you haven't got the US dollar in decline Right, that would be like the perfect gold trade I think in my opinion if you had all those factors But just because you got you know, you've got three out of four It's still good enough to buy gold if that's what exactly what you want to do as well as silver Anyways guys take care. I hope that helps and again, don't forget that we have the Enrollment opens on the 28th of March for a very limited time probably for maybe about five days six days I might just open it for and it's gonna be closed again And you know for the foreseeable future, so if you've been waiting on the sidelines waiting waiting waiting to get in I know I've had a quite a few Emails kind of remember how many just asking when is it gonna be open? This is the you know, you've got about a week left So guys take care have a great trading week and I'll speak to you all soon