 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Tiger Technician Hour. We're looking at the tower of 40 at 4,000. This is the S&P. So this is the E-mini. One minute chart. Looking for a leg D, new recovery height today. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. This is the recovery height today. Let's just get back to our story. We've got the Dow. There we go. The INDU. There we are. The Dow is up 149,35,430. This big red candle is very significant for me. That's the one from yesterday. Why? Because it's suggesting to me that we've done a one to one parallel, Chapman parallel upside extension. And the target that I had was right there at about 35,570. We actually went to 35,633. Now, these are the things that are very important to me. I've discussed this over and over and again for weeks and weeks, that this nine-period exponential moving average has been moving higher. I went against everything because at that PD, we did take a short and we had a very tight stop, got stopped out and it was ready. I went against my own technique because that nine-period moving average, as I said before, it's imperative for a market that is turning around to see that nine-period move negative and then the price takes out. In this case, the green is the nine-period moving average, the 14 is the black moving average right there, and then take out the lower one, start to close underneath so you can get at least a sell signal, maybe upgrade to a sell mode, but the price would have to go sharply below to get that green to go pink. So it's a process. It's either you've got bad news that comes out and just filters the market so that within two or three days it is in your local newspaper, let alone an APA starts reporting at every hour of the day. We don't have that right now. In fact, we're at a point where we were climbing a wall of worry and now that wall of worry seems to be dissipating some. What is the market going to crawl? So I'm looking at this and saying there's a chance that we're looking at some kind of a rollover, suddenly there's bad news, but it's almost at the end. So we'll get, I guess I need to do this, begin an internal high and a residual high. So let me just do this for one second here. So within this context, look how much higher we are from the November of 22 cap that was put on the market at about 34,712. What we're looking at is this is the first period that not only have we closed above that trend line for two to three out of four sessions, it's gone on for one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10. Today's the 10th session above that trend line. I have to look at this and say we've now built the resistance level, turned it into a huge support level in the 34,000 to 33,500 area. So I consider that to be a really big positive. That's number one. Number two is get out of this. It's technical Friday, so I'm going to do this. I'm going to try to do this all in the first segment because I had a whole bunch of questions I do want to get to. So look at this. This is the gray, it's just the closing price of the instruments that we're looking at. And all I have is the 9 and 14 crossovers, green when it's positive, pink when it's negative, push it should come up right now. Then I say push one, two, there it is. Four, five, six. What's going on? Did I not refresh? No, don't do this to me, please. There it is. Okay. So what we've got is, remember, this is the Dow. I'll keep it as I showed it back in May, May the 3rd. At 32,684, May the 3rd was right there. And I said, right there. All right, it's gone underneath. Is it going to go pink? And it went pink and it stayed pink for a while. The market kept making low lows and low highs. And then it went green. And then I said, this is the same thing with the left side, right side. Move over the 9-period moving average. And now we're going to come down. It's going to go pink. Well, we got out of our trading loans on the Dow right there. And what it did was, it started to move up. And then green did not turn pink. The 9-period moving health is health health. Are we now on the left side? And we're going to be watching a right side move either slightly above, right on, or just below the left side high. That's the high of yesterday, actually. And now what we need to look at is, does the 9-period moving average show weakness? At this particular point, it's the price that's going to make it weak because everything's strong. So that is internal strength. So I'm going to do this quickly because I'm going to try to cover questions that I got at the same time. Look, question came in on the SMHs. We've been short because I thought that that was going to be the move down. Well, it was briefly, but then we had a bounce. And now that 9-period moving average is deflected to the upside with the price at a new recovery high. Let me just see. I don't know. It's not a new recovery high. Let me just go back to the actual trial itself, SMH. So we conducted an ETF, typed it in the wrong place. Let me type it in here, SMH. Oh, we're almost at a high. Not only just a recovery high, but an all-time high. 159.42 was the all-time high in November of 2021. We were trading at 160.43. We were above that high. So the question came in. I've begun shorting the SMHs. I'm about to add another one today. I've got 165 stop. Where would you, what do you think would be the downside action? So this is what I'm going to do. I'm going to use everything that all the tools I have right now to just, you know, my market stance, my market stance right now is that I think we, in a topping formation, it's going to be a slow roll over and you've now got tremendous support in that cushion that was resistance. Okay. So this is to get that off the table. It's also very selective. Some areas that you'd expect to be doing very well right now are stalling and others are actually leading. And you've got sectors where, and I'll do this because it's all part of it. Look at this. Intel suddenly comes alive. Pearl Intel gaps up and it's making this beautiful cup formation, trying to tackle the peak B that failed on the 25th, I think it was of June at 37, 31, 37, 31. Here we are at 30, 35, 98 is the height today. 30, 36 is 36, 98. Well, I guess I am going to have to get my glasses. 36, 98. Okay. So, and the weekly chart is breaking out. And yet this is a stock that was up at now 70 twice back in 2020, 2020, 2021. And look what happened. It plunged down to the 24 area, 24, 259 double bottom and 24, 73. So this is now helping. So that's what I always talk about when you've got a rotational direction, people on the upside and the downside, that what was beat, it suddenly becomes strong. I have someone in there now, like you say, going, going was very poor. Suddenly it's a leader, Triple M, very poor. Now it's a little bit of a leader. I'll be back in a moment. That was up 178. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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But across positive right now, I've been doing a lot of work on this two-click type session yesterday was almost a two-click session. But wait a minute, we've got a high here of 45, 82, 50. This far they went L with the 9 people across positive, and it's still positive. You've gone from the high. I'll go, I don't know, I'll just go from the high of 45, 82. And yeah, we are at 46, 06. I believe someone in the deck, I can't remember, just off the hand, said 46, 06 looks like a good area for a target when we were weighed down the 45, 90s there. Yeah, good, good call. And this is going to be leg E. We watched it happen. Yeah, there could be a little digester phase right here. This is the same thing. The 9 people moving average in the 10 minute chart, unless it's a sudden news event that really tanks who knows oil, it doesn't matter what it is, tanks it and the S&P 10 minute chart drops under 49, 49, 90, 45, 90. 45, 90 is at 46, 04 right now. I mean, that's a big pullback. That'll get to the green to turn pink. That's so it's either a process that takes time for to wear out the buying pressure, or it's a sudden news event. We don't have any black news. Well, I call it dark news cloud cover with just a dark, it's like when those thunder clouds are down, we had them last night, those and a lightning and the thunder and you suddenly get this whoosh of a down storm. And it either lasts when it's like that, it doesn't last that long, but when it's a very deep bad news thing, it goes on for days and the S&P is down 50 and it tries to run in it closes down 60. And the next day, the overnight is down, then it has a rally, but it closes down sharply again, even deeper. You don't have that right now. And that's the only thing in trying to time the top. And my question, the question was, in the SMH is, where do you think it's going to go on the downside? So I'm saying I'm going through everything because of the technicals. This is technical Friday, Chapman Weave technical Friday. I want to go through all these different things to show you. Look, as triple M breaks out, all of a sudden, it's in the triple M and BA are going to be the shortest term favorites. Who you know, out of the blue, they're doing nothing. And then boom. And all of a sudden, fund managers say, wait a minute, wait a minute. Am I going to chase Apple? I could just get triple M. And if triple M goes even back to one of the left side peaks of a consequence that would be 130. That's a darn nice thing. So that's the way the money's going. And that's the rotation. And that says, I don't see right now, just unless something happens, some exigency, you never know, it could be international, it could be whatever. It has to be really bad news that just permeates the markets day in and day out, at least for a week, to really build up momentum to have a very, very deep slide. So it's going to be a rollover correction. That's really what I'm looking at. So let's go back to the SMHs, see where the SMH is right now, hasn't taken out the high yesterday, but it's up in all almost an all time high within a couple of points from all time high. So here we go, as long as micro devices, a lousy charge, trying to rally, had a fantastic move, I think it's sort of out of favor here and all of a sudden Intel, which was being decimated by advanced micro devices becomes a leader. This is what I'm talking about. The rotation is spectacular. Now that happens. Okay, what happens is NVDA, NVIDIA, struggling after making that double top high at about 480. Did I type that in or not? Well, I'll type it in now. At 4, there it is, 480.88 on the 14th, I bet I did have, there it is, I have it. All right, 480.88, oh 88, is it 80 or 88? On the 14th, it's struggling is making this cup formation. This one's really working hard. The technicals are actually disappointing, but the nine is still over the 14. And that's good. And look at the weekly chart, potential leg D make to make a slightly higher high. So you've got to wait for these things to unfold. And yes, as I want to I don't want to talk out of turn, but we did have a short position in the semis. And it worked actually every every day, it worked until they got taken out the stops got taken out on the sudden big pop. And so we could have just taken kept taking a little bit off a little bit off. I didn't I wanted to see if it was going to hold it didn't hold just it was a nibble and a small position. So it was very small position, a small loss, but a loss nevertheless. But I want to clarify, we are not in that. At this point, we're looking to see what happens on the SMH is going through the applied materials, applied materials a match. Fantastic company. That's fun. I just had a little text conversation with my buddy who sold his semiconductor business. Now it must be like four or five years ago. Yeah, there must be something like that. Anyway, 150 point 93, making a new recovery high 16706 was the January to 2022. All time high, big cup formation. So that's acting very well. It looked very poor the other day made a low low in the H pattern. And then all of a sudden the H pattern turned into a big cup formation. I don't want to fight that trend. So I'm just going to say I wouldn't add today. If I don't think you have added yet you've just started your position, you said you're gonna you're thinking of adding today. And I think you also want to listen to the show. I'm doing it with you because I'm in your camp. I'm saying, Hey, when these semiconductors give it up. And you know, we spoke about this a year I had this on the show, I spoke about it, I said, when I'm reading about all the fabs that are being built, everything there's going to be a glut of chips. But maybe the glut of chips happens just as the chips are really needed. Because we're seeing productivity expand. I don't know that that's too complex for me to see if that's occurring right now. But certainly if these stocks are making highs, there's not a glut in the sense that it brings the prices down. Remember, semiconductor chips are a commodity, and they become even more commoditized. But at the same time, semiconductor chips of the crude oil of the 21st century for the 1900s, crude oil was everything. And then as you got into the latter part into the 70s, 80s and 90s, 1990s, that is, into the 2000s. Now we're talking about something else between about chips being the oil of the 21st century, in fact, going on for who knows how many decades, it's going to be chips. Prices will come down. But maybe they stabilize because they're always becoming faster. So that's what I want you to say is just be careful. I'm going to give you all the numbers in a moment. I didn't want to finish with LRCX, which is another great company, LAM Research, almost an all time high. 721.03 is the high today. And so far. And seven. Oh, did I not write that in? I didn't. It was a two bar reversal at 693 round number high. Oh, I forgot I once wrote this in. And then there was a fractionally higher high the next month, seven. So seven. Here we go. 78, 78, 71.45. Isn't that interesting? So 731. We haven't got the yet. I think the way 11 points we can do that is some for the LAM Research. So given the numbers, as soon as I get back and then all the other places in the game, including question about SLX, which is steel. Yeah, I'll be back. Attention traders. Larry Pesevento, the renowned trading mastermind is holding an exclusive live trading event on Wednesday, August 2nd. From 9am to 2pm Eastern Time, transform your trading skills with the real time wisdom of a Wall Street veteran. Just $295 gets you a front row seat to this power packed session, plus a month free of Larry sought after newsletter Fibonacci 24 seven, a $97 value. 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But going to an all time high, you know stocks that go in instruments that go to an all time high, especially when it's an ETF, a conglomerate. It doesn't just stop on a dime, so it needs it needs time. So I'm just going to say I would not get too carried away. I'd rather be looking at lower lows and lower highs rather than try in this particular instance. The reason why I love to try my best for subscribers and for myself to try to pick the exact moment of a turn is because it gives you so much flexibility when, for instance, if you pick a low like we had back in the last one was October of this past year, we were bought the Dow and the SDW three times longer down or back in what was it March of 2020, still have that. It's because when you get it at a low, when it rallies up and then it starts this gyration trying to retest, you've got room, otherwise you're going to keep going in and out. This way you can just watch it and say, OK, take me out. That's fine. And then as it moves higher, you can raise your stock, your core position and trade around it. That's what we love doing. So this is what I'm looking at here that the SMH is. This is an absolutely key moment because it's a key moment for the SMH, but it's also for because where the SMH goes, generally you're going to see the market, overall market going that direction. So I'm just saying I don't I had a clue when it was pulling back and it did, but now that it's gone back up, how it goes back up and how that strength is generated and how something like an Intel can have an impact because if it's not going back to the 200p moving average of 32, it's up here at 36 and it's actually just starting and move to the upside, that's going to give you some room. So I'd be a little careful of being so specific in a sector that's making all time eyes. So I'm just going to say stay with what you've got. I wouldn't add to this particular point. I'd rather add on weakness as we see that 9p moving, even if it gets close, we've seen that it gets close and then it springs back up. When it crosses negative, I think you're going to have a chance to say now I can implement bigger turns and just stay with your stop. I have a feeling the 65 level is 165 is not going to be reached, but that's just the feeling. It's got nothing to do with the price. So just be real careful there, especially since it's come back so strongly in the cup formation. All right, I'm done with that. So SLX, this is a steel sector. Look at this, double top and then it goes to all time highs. Now you see this monthly chart and then ag vectors, steel ETF. Look how it's making higher highs and higher lows and look at each stalling at 68.2. Let me double check this. This is back in May of 2021. It goes to 62.22. There it is. Okay. And then it pulls back pretty sharply to the 50 area. That's 18 points a lot of them. And then it goes to a fractional new high. It goes to 69 something, was it? It goes to, is that a 70, 70.43. 70.43, two and a half points higher after all that. And then it goes to a deeper correction to the 49, 48 area and then it's ready to a fractionally higher high. What does it go to? It goes to 70.38. And then it pulls back and now it's gone to what? A high at 71 point, 70.96, a new recovery high. Sorry, new all time. No, let's just open this up. There it is. No, all time I thought so. The all time high was back here. Pick A, B, C, D, P, E right here with the silent dojo. I remember this as well. Back in the monthly chart. Back in February of 2011. And then a stall on its way down. And it made a lower low and most of the indices did not make lower lows after the 2009. Remember, we timed that to the day exactly. Buying the diamonds on the 6th of March 2009. OK, so in other words, you've got a little bit of a way to go. Not much for the all time high of. Did I do that? Oh, that was the that was all the SLX. Now I remember SLX only so in 2006. So I couldn't really tell. It did go pick A, B, C, D, E, but I don't know where it started from. And then it pulled back. That was the first real move that I could identify a low. Now I've got to remember it all. So that high that was made was A high, but we could have even been higher at some point. But that was 2008, May of 2008. And the price was 114.05. So that's got a long way to go. All right, so new recovery high, not all time high. Oh, I could do a left side, right side, price time much. I'll do that over the weekend. I don't want to do it now. So, yes, the SLX is acting really well. If you look at X, which is this is US Steel. Look at the monthly chart. Yeah, just OK, but look at NUE. Newcore almost going to 187.90 was all time high back in 2022. Plunges to 100 almost was a 46 percent decline or more. And then it goes back peak APB and now it's trying for a C. It's at 168. This is one of the best. STLD is one that I followed for years and years because I thought it was metal chairs or something like that. But steel dynamics, steel products with hot rolls, steel. Oh, CLF. Let me just do this before I get CLF. Cleveland Cliffs. I think it's Rolls, Steel, Cleveland Cliffs, not doing that well. So let's go back to what I was looking at. Now, if I can even remember what I was looking at. Oh, STLD. Look at that. Yes, it's pulling back a short term, but it has done very nicely. Hot Roll still look turned to period moving average right there. Key support watching this closely. Now, so within the SLX, that was the question. I like it. I like it for the long term for 2023. But on a short term basis, what I am looking at, and this is going to be something that I have to monitor very closely because it goes all together with the cyclicals, the deep cyclicals. And that goes with Caterpillar, even though they're really done. Caterpillar is Caterpillar. Caterpillar is almost at an all time high. 266.04 was high in January of 2020 of this year. And it makes a beautiful cut formation. And now it's testing. It looks almost like the steel stock. Look at that in peak D. And that's just going sideways, almost at the high on the left on the right side with a monthly chart. So the question about XLF, you know, this is one of those. The person asked me, I don't believe your options. You have never done options. If you're doing options, I would say 35. I would buy a September or October call on XLF, just a long term and just don't even worry about it. Just let it sit there. I'd probably want to go as close to in the money as possible. But if I could, I think it would be enough for me to read them. I think we'll catch it to get that back. But the question I need just a moment to say, what am I looking for when I get the downside? So I'll give you an answer. The Gold Report. As a precious metal gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equies with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. 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Wait, let me just... I better write this down because I'm going to forget. Okay. Okay. That's next. Okay, so this is... Where would downside targets be on SMHs if and when they finally take a breather? Well, if you're looking at a 12% correction, what happens if it goes to 164? It doesn't stop you out and then it turns down. That's a different 20% than it is from 160. So I'd rather do this. If at any point in the next... I'm going to make it two weeks because I want to get into August. So about the second... Let's make it... August is coming up on Tuesday by the close on Friday the 11th. If the SMHs have had any two-day close below 152, that's the trough was right there a couple of days ago, a week or so ago, they had 152.29, a close below 151 suggests that it would then go to the next level, 146. I don't think with the 200-period moving average, I don't even know where it is in this particular instrument right here, the SMHs. Look at that, way down at 130. We're way above it. Look how often it's tested and it's spiraled to the upside. I have to look at the 50-period moving average and say somewhere in the 148 area, that's something that's going to be important. But I would just say to you that if you get the dating chart, 9-period moving average to cross negative, probably the SMHs are going to go below 151. If they go below 151, then the weekly chart, 9-period moving average, although it's going to move slower, will start to creep down. Until that turns negative, you're not going to get more than a digestive moment. So I'd go one step at a time and I'd say, if you're going to risk at 150, at 160, 10% on the upside, then you need to anticipate at least, I would say, 15% on the downside. And that gets you all into this area that we're talking about of the 140s, if it goes to the 163, 164 area. So I'd go one step at a time. I'd much rather you're shorting from a higher level, or I don't see that the tide is turned. I see the tide as potentially turning based on the magnesium stochastic, but on balance volumes with the M-shaped pattern and that weekly chart, the bigger tide is up and the monthly tide says, what are you talking about? I'm making all-time highs. The stochastic said 86. So to me it was a shorter-term trade. If you're looking at the longer-term trade, it has to work perfectly. And I'd be looking at Intel. If Intel gives back the gains by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, then you're looking at something that says, OK, Nvidia should be running out of energy. All of these should be running out of energy. And advanced market advice is a bit of a clue. That's the way I would look at it. Price, 151 is the area to watch for the bigger move to the downside, but then 146 is as tremendous support. I hope that helps you. SLX, do you want to go long from here? Well, stocks and instruments that make new all-time highs tend to stay on the new all-time list over months. So in other words, it could pull back, but then it could get back there. So I like what I'm seeing and I know that, in your case, who asked me the question, I know that you look at the bigger picture. So I'm going to say, why don't you put your foot in the door at 69.21, knowing that that's just your instrument that tells you if there's a close on a weekly basis, that says for the next two weeks, there is a close next two out of three weeks. In other words, going to about the third week of August, if there have been two closes above the high that was made at 70.38 on the week of the third at peak D, that's leadership. That's going to go together with PAVE, which is the, look at this PAVE, testing all-time highs in a rectangle formation. Probably going to pull back a little bit from here, but that's also broken out of that same kind of resistance line. So I'm just saying, I don't think it's ready because we're starting to get a little bit toppy here, but at the same time, get your foot in the door. It's going to just give you a much better feel for how it's working when any individual sectors like the global infrastructure development, ETF, PAVE, PAVE, if it starts to pull back, if any of the single stocks in the steel sector start to pull back. Good. We've got that out the way. Now I can go to MUFG. MUFG. Now I have to just tell you, first of all, don't get a heart attack anybody. On the left side, he has the data chart. It trades overseas. Mitsubishi, I forgot the N. Mitsubishi. Nope, nope, not Mitsu. Don't leave out a T when it comes to Miso. Mitsubishi. There you go. Oh, I made it a capo. Mitsubishi, UFJ, Financial Inc. No, not all-time high. It made it all-time high, much, much higher. Way back in. Way back in. Way back in 2006. It hit. It went into the 16s. So, yeah, but this is a really, this is an outstanding move. And this is Japan. Let's just have a look at the NK. This is a Nike. I haven't updated it. This is a Nike continuous contract, almost at all-time highs. I remember it on my daily chart, when I used to hand chart, I used to hand chart the FTSEE 30. I just don't even get the information on the FTSEE anymore. I hand charted the Nike, the Nikkei, and I hand charted the Dow and the S&P. With engineering paper, I used to have to stick the pages together so high. And I, I think I got an E. Not an F, but an E on the continuous, on the closing price contract on my daily chart. I got it somewhere here. I wonder if I'll show a picture of it. And that was, was that 30,000? I can't remember, 39,000, whatever it was. All right. So, now we're looking at a really good comeback from the Nikkei, but Mitsubishi, look at this, the symbol, M-U-G. Oh, no, I forgot. M-U-F-G. There it is. Okay. This is a slight and even better looking chart. No. I don't know why you're asking me this, Topiki, because you know it's looking fantastic. I wouldn't do anything at this point. You know my rule, if it's making all-time eyes doing fantastically and you have to ask the question, it means why don't you take a little bit off just to kind of money management part of it and ease any worry that you have that is going to start to pull back. This is looking fantastic. I'm sure you're in it. That's why you're asking me, oh, oh, what to do? Maybe not. Oh, to add. Yeah, that's a really good question. I'm calling this a B. It should be a G-B in the monthly chart, but the way it broke out, I just, I'll change that if I have to, but I think this is a B. This is an E in the weekly chart and this new spike to the upside. Is that an A? Or is this from your A, B, C, D, E? Is this an F slash A? I don't know. All I can say is I would add at 840. You have to have a lot of patience now to add. I don't want you to add up here and then your average cost is just, you've messed up your average cost. Rather on a dip towards, give me a yell. We'll look at this when it gets down to the 757.40 area. And, you know, I was, I wasn't prepared, but it was family thing, so I couldn't, I didn't know when I'd have free time. I wanted to call you to have a game of tennis. I did play tennis with my son, but I didn't get a chance to do your call to play tennis. Next time I'm in town, I'll give you a yell. But yeah, have patience. This is done fantastically. You have to wait for the full day. Just five days ago, the 740s. Okay. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den. Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. 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