 We're joined by Melissa Armo, she's an economist and the founder of the stock swoosh, a firm that educates people on the economy and the stock market. Perfect guess for this segment. Educate us please, because no matter what the Biden administration does, no matter what the Federal Reserve does, inflation continues to remain so high. What is the problem here? Well, there's a lot of things going on. After COVID, prices increased dramatically and then of course we had all of that stimulus. So people went out, they spent money, people were working and there was actually a lot of competition for jobs. Companies were having to hire people and pay them more to get employees. Now we're seeing a different cycle here happening with the Fed having raised interest rates really quick. A lot of times really fast. Again, 2022 was a big year for interest rates to go up and into 2023. Now we're seeing the changes here happening where it's not coming down. The Fed thought, well, we'll back off continuing to raise interest rates in the hopes that the economy will just gradually ease the prices down. It's not happening. So the Fed actually, if they decide to increase rates this year, which no one was expecting not six months ago, not at the beginning of 2024. If they decide to not lower rates or increase rates this year, the market could have a very negative reaction to that. Number one and number two, the Fed could actually push the economy into a recession, which could be the only way maybe to fix prices or maybe this is just what prices are. I mean, I live here in Manhattan in New York. We haven't seen prices like this for food ever since the whole time I've lived here. I mean, we're paying $10 for court of strawberries, $7, $8 for a dozen eggs. These prices just are staying where they are, and we may never see prices for food particularly go down to where they were before 2020. And prior to this report, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had indicated that there was going to be three rate hikes coming this year. What does this report, this continued high inflation suggest? Could they call an audible here? Well, I don't know what they're gonna do. They're kind of riding the coattails as they do and change of their mind because going into the end of last year, the market had a big rally in November, December because they thought the Fed was actually going to cut rates. First, they said six, then they said five. Then the year started off. They said they were going to drop rates down to three. Remember mortgage mortgage interest rates have gone up dramatically. And so the problem is people are still locked into 3% interest rates. So people are locked into 3% interest rates. So you really haven't seen the pressure on spending. Once people say, I'm not going to pay this price for this item anymore. And then you have job layoffs, which I hate to say it. That's actually, you know, that's one of the problems with having a recession companies lay people off. But until people say, I'm just not going to pay this anymore, you're going to continue to have this drive and prices up. And again, one of the reasons the prices are so high is because oil prices are high. Now, while oil prices can fluctuate, they've gone in dramatically since, since Biden took office. And I think unless we change them with those parameters, we get a new administration into 2025, if we continue to see diesel prices as high as they are, it's a problem because how do we get everything we buy? It comes to us from trucks. And again, while everyone's saying that companies are raising prices and making more money, a lot of it is they have to do that to cover the cost to get the foods and goods and services and everything we buy to us. And one component of that is gas prices really driving this inflation. And one thing that really struck me was vehicle insurance up 22% over the past year. That's the biggest hike since 1976. Why is car insurance so costly right now? What's going on? I know that sounds so crazy. Just like everything you see right now, it's almost like you can't even believe it. It's not even just car insurance, it's homeowner's insurance, rent his insurance. All of these things are costing so much. Again, companies have to cover the cost of paying people more in wages. They have to cover the cost of everything that we pay companies are paying higher prices to as an individual, you're paying more. Well, guess what? Corporations, small businesses, medium sized businesses, large businesses, they're paying more tip. So be prepared and when we can be going into a period here into the next six months, where it's we're right on the cusp here where we're trying to decide are we really going to get pushed into a recession into 2025 or not? Jamie Diamond, the CEO, JP Morgan Chase came out earlier this week and said, don't be surprised if we see 8% 30 year fixed mortgage interest rates and that seems unheard of because again, we've had three, four, five percent, six percent interest rates for so long until you see a slow down where housing prices start to drop and or people get laid off. I don't think the Fed is going to take the drastic steps to lower interest rates. If that has one job, but trying to keep inflation down and they're trying to keep also the unemployment rate down. So that's the real job of the Fed, but they really haven't been doing a great job of it because prices have been very, very high for the last four years coming out of COVID. They really haven't gone down. And I think the concern from many people like that woman you heard that was just talking that was interviewed earlier, she's worried that prices are going to be like this and this is just the new normal. And I think that's the problem because wages, while they have ticked up slightly, are not covering the cost of inflation. And you can say, well, it went down a little bit, but really what it's spiked up like this, and then it's only going down a little bit like that. It's still way up compared to where we were four years ago, five years ago. So I don't think anybody really knows where we're going. I don't think the Fed even has a plan of action where we're going because the Fed thought that we're just going to normalize prices, we're going to normalize and it's not happening. Oil's a big part of it. But again, right now at this point, nothing seems to change where we're going. But we're in a presidential election year as you know, so anything can happen. We'll see going into the end of the year in November and then of course early 2025. I guess the one silver lining is it's not nearly as bad as it was during the summer of 2022, but still it remains above that 3% marker has for months now. Economist Melissa Armo, thank you so much for your time and your insight. We appreciate it. Thank you, Rob.