 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now David white And welcome all to another excellent edition of the power trading hour Oh Didn't have everything I had up and of course it doesn't matter where you're at as long as you're here at this time The following takes place between 2 p.m. And 3 p.m. So We've had a market that's tried to push lower. We're back to flat basically on the S of B No volume pretty much up and down Early in the market. We're still off 18 on the Nasdaq I'd been watching Apple Really had been kind of all over the place. I still see options point to 172 50 for the expiration today So this may be a small bump before the close where we sell into it But it's pretty accurate and it pretty much has a fairly Large shadow over the rest of the market. So I tend to watch options on it going into each Friday more than anything else but You don't have a lot of juice off these highs I just had kind of everybody give up not usually a low in the market generally lows in the market come when everybody gets bearish and One of the reasons why I didn't cover any of my short positions yesterday was that we had about a put call ratio of about I think it was point two six Point two nine anyway, 29% people buying Puts in the in the VIX and that's just So low for a sell-off to think that that's you know that no one's interested and no one thinks the market's going lower And when I say no one I'm going to say 80 Probably 80% of the folks don't think that are in that market Don't think it's going to go any lower or a whole lot lower or they'd be out there buying those VIX Puts and they weren't so we'll see what we have by the end of the day-to-day But again, I'm thinking we're Apple and Microsoft probably closed a lot more Closer to for Microsoft a lot closer to 305 and it's 307 did it right now and Apple a lot closer to 172 50 then it's 173 15 at the moment Now maybe someone was going to come out with some false news or maybe even surprise real news and not fake news, but I Just don't see a lot going on here before the end of the day Other than another yet attempt of about three I've seen today that have all kind of failed We get back under 173 on Apple I'm going to assume that is just one more failure on the on the pop hire But we haven't done has gone down and what I thought we do which is a head on closer to 170 on Apple today, which is the low end of the production for the options the high is 172 50 so I'm pretty sure we're going to hit that the question is do we get that sell-off before the end of the weekend? Do we get everybody deciding that they need to? Buy puts for next week if we do then that's probably some kind of low But I haven't seen any evidence of it volume both up and down has been light. That's a good sign of indecision Low puts on the VIX means that they're bearish. No, it means that they're not bearish VIX VIX is just the out of the money puts and calls the premiums just the premiums So what you look at that in the VIX is how many people are buying out of the money puts and how many people are buying out of the Money pre calls and that tells you if they're buying three to one on out of the monies As they were yesterday for calls That tells you everybody thinks that they're bullish And and no one's they're thinking that some kind of low has come in therefore you haven't gotten a low The VIX is 500 stocks. It is the premium on all 500 stocks of out of the money Puts and calls that are written Um, I don't say so much the VIX is the fear gauge that everybody talks about I do think it is at its extremes, especially As I look at it when everybody's on one side and everybody buys calls everybody buys puts one of the best indicators that you've got at least a Short term but probably more a medium term low for a handful of days or maybe the week But yeah, um Probably the biggest misconception is no one knows what the VIX is And although I publish it from time to time. It is a mathematical Uh approximation. It's not what everybody thinks it is And that's the biggest problem. They don't understand it. Um, if anybody really wants these I've I From time to time tell them i'll give them the link, but there's a white paper from the VIX or about the VIX Uh from the CBOE And yes, there's equations and math in it and Generally the people that are technical traders tend to be the least technical when it comes to getting into the weeds on mathematics but understand the VIX is a totally Different thing than just about anything else you're going to look at in the market And to under really understand it you almost need to get a spreadsheet out and go figure it out yourself. I mean Go through the mathematical permutations of it and understand it But it is a oscillator of I think 24 and 36 days, maybe it's 24 and 32 I know they changed it. I think it used to be like 45 and 24. I think it's uh 24 and 36 now They changed that I think in 2017 To make it a little snappier make it come back in and not have such huge Uh permutations, but Getting in and out of something like that or the UV XY means that you better know where the waves are because there's a wave on that 24 day average and there's a wave on that 36 day average and Sometimes the waves are nice and smooth. They're all coming out of the same direction. Sometimes they're coming out of counter directions one coming from the east and one coming from the north and It can be a lot of chop And people will especially in the UV XY will go. I just don't understand why it went down. Well, maybe you were On the wrong side of that 36 day Part of that moving average and you were right on the 24 day and it gets wiped out. That's generally what it is So without knowing those parts it is a big issue The vicks You can't really trade the vicks. So all it is is a number right You can trade the UV XY and you used to be able to trade other things So that's it Rate of change seems to affect the via a great deal needs to to deform it. Yeah um Like I said, if anybody wants it email me at path at tfnn.com and I'll dig it up during the break But there's a lot more to understanding the vicks and understand It's not the market is a mathematical representation of the market And if you don't understand that, uh, there's a famous saying that says that the map is not the terra core That's another good one to look up We'll be back in a minute You grinding in the market, but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader? Simply looking to make your job a little easier Learn to take the path of least resistance with david white's powerful trading newsletter David white is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets Allows him to consistently find and share winning trades support and resistance Define the ranges at which stocks trade by understanding these trading ranges David white is able to find a path of least resistance David white's trading newsletter the path of least resistance is delivered daily Before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win Visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to david white's ultimate trading newsletter For $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee Take the path of least resistance at tfnn educating investors What's separating you from the most successful men and women on wall street? 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So wednesday is delta neutral day Uh options expiration is the 14th of the month. So very early. It's also a day earlier Than normal because that is the three day weekend for easter weekend Uh, so we're getting ready for that. But as I said, I'm not, uh One that is very bullish here Um, we are kind of about what 15 18 points off the low on the s and p But the volume is fairly low Anyway, we'll continue to watch it But uh, I think a good indication is if apple can get going here and so far In this bounce, it's up about 30 cents maybe 40 cents after the whole move in the s and p So we shall see but uh I'm kind of thinking more on the long term than the next 30 minutes or an hour I don't have anything now that will expire today Other than I bought apple 175 puts when it was printing above 174 And holding on to them and seeing what happens into the close on those Since i'm fairly well into the money on them and unless they go the other They'd have to go to probably about 174 before I would get out. But uh pretty pretty nice setup, I think But we shall see but uh one of the reasons is options are so really good at predicting on apple and some of the other high dollar stocks And so maybe some of the other ones are going to move the market up a little bit Longer term. I don't see anything that has changed my view That it is particularly dangerous Through probably the first week of may now It doesn't mean that every day will be a down day But for the most part, I'm going to sit on my hands with my short positions that I've amassed over the last Four or five days and move on eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Uh, okay, where's the other one? Oh, there it is Okay Uh, bunch of people ask about this white paper Um, as I said, I'll bring this up a couple times a year I'm wondering how many people we could really get into it because that's what you're going to see And most people if they ever did learn what those nasty little symbols were Are out there But uh, it breaks it down. It makes it fairly easy but really to understand it You almost have to uh, go line by line through this and make a spreadsheet of it And then you'll really understand it Most people don't and that's why they're so kind of scratching their head on the way that uh, the vix moves and the way that the UV x y moves in different moves out here But it's got a good explanation and it goes through line by line On how it's all figured even though you've got these big calculations. It breaks them down into ones that uh, I would imagine an eighth grader could probably figure out if they were, uh, motivated to But uh, very good paper white paper from the cboe on how it's actually made what it is and how Over time if you understand it, you'll understand the way it moves Okay, uh So what else do we have here? Oh I was going to talk about uh, intel an amd and a little bit of nvidia uh that we had earlier and the uh Question was why was amd getting pounded kind of earlier in the day? And there's a few things going on a little bit of hangover from the days before it's at down amd's down 2% But several things going on one intel is pretty much Let everybody know That they're going to be dropping prices on especially the consumer stuff But also on some of the server stuff as amd becomes more competitive with it Uh for intel, of course, that's probably dead money now for a while INTC is that right? Yeah, or is it IT? Intel INC, right? Man, I'm questioning myself now on the symbols You know, I'm starting to lose it. INTC. Yeah, that's it. Uh, okay Sometimes symbols just look wrong. Anyway, it's off about 70 um, anyway, there was a There was a couple things one. We talked a little bit about it. That was an organized short short Run on amd yesterday ring-leaded by The name begins with a g just escapes me at the moment Anyway, I think a lot of people were were participating on it But what they probably knew and we didn't yesterday Was that a big company in china was coming out with a envidia clone And why that's probably important is that the envidia card is better than the amd Uh for a couple of reasons mostly for machine learning um Some people will disagree with me for that but for me That's it. Anyway, uh This company in china hired one of the envidia x employees and they've made a clone Now that clone Uh of that card doesn't compete with the top end of amd. So they don't have to worry But at the low end Yeah, it does And because amd still hasn't got a foothold in machine learning These this chinese company has made all the software for machine learning and Games Pretty much compatible. So i'm going to say this that on a kind of a low end This chinese company has made a video card. That's a clone of low end envidia cards well This kind of puts a wrench in amd because it was always the second banana for video But now it may Have a lot more competition because if you didn't have the money for the envidia you bought the amd for a hundred bucks less Now there's going to be a card In there that may even be yet another option now No real plans yet on them shipping those to the united states but uh over europe uh and uh asia and australia On that hemisphere. There's apparently a lot of plans for these guys to sell stuff Probably because envidium would probably prevail in lawsuits here in the united states. They are not shipping here yet But their patents are probably not as strong Probably worthless in china because china is not going to go up against one of their own companies But in other places where money is tighter Than the united states Probably a big deal So that now intel Uh also has its own problems and the it stated it's not going to even come out of this until 2004 So it's kind of like a lot of dead money Uh, let's take just a couple quick looks at uh these as we're going through them Yeah, you're just on the downside of it. You don't have a lot of volume today But I wasn't expecting it on friday for envidia. Let's take a quick look at in at the amd Yeah, you're headed back to 101 not a big surprise in that And intel When we come back we'll do a little bit of history and then we'll uh go to some more charts But the intel all these things nice big handles on the way down Back fun trading the markets But having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with Become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the tiger's den trading room only at tfnn.com The tiger's den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world Subscribers to the tiger's den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air And can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Subscribe to the tiger's den risk-free with our 30 day money back guarantee and become part of the tfnn trading community tfnn educating investors You could be making money off the stock market and if you're already making money off the stock market You could be making a lot more Check out tfnn and tiger tv and get expert investing advice to give you the power to control your financial future Go to tfnn.com and find the newsletter for you Whether you're into trading gold metals futures currencies or options You'll get advice and analysis to help you seriously get ahead tfnn also features trading services with a 30 day money back guarantee for new subscribers As well as tfnn's tiger den trading room trading software and educational webinars for all trading levels And make sure you check out tiger tv for free on tfnn.com or tfnn's youtube channel for live Financial content from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern on market days Stop watching on the sidelines while other people get rich and become the investor. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com And before we get to uh A little bit of history Eddie wants to know uh, is there anything to worry about uh, this and Nvidia on the china knockoff going to affect Nvidia share price um As long as there's a uh There's more demand than supply probably not The biggest problem that I think a lot of these folks including these knockoff guys are going to have is there's a shortage of silicon wafers and if you Don't understand semiconductor manufacturing. They make a lot of things that look like cd rom dis and they put all the they uh, etch Uh, circuitry on it, then they cut those up into little squares Uh, and uh, then they attach little tiny wires to them and then they put them in a package That's probably plastic some kind and put little legs on it that you can solder to to put it on a circuit board Well If you don't have the silicon you don't have anything else to put it on you can't get uh, average run of the middle silicon It's got to be pretty perfect And there's just a shortage of that so as long as there's continued shortage Everybody's going to be fighting over that stuff at some level But Nvidia has made a determined change to go to the high end of the market Including to the server part of the business Um With some new chips and that's really what you got your big pop on If you actually look at the chart on Nvidia It does look much better than amd You had a nice move up on the 24th with 87 million shares coming back into it with 37 million shares now in a bad market You maybe have the nicest neighborhood and it's still a nice house in the neighborhood, but it's still a crack house Uh, a crack neighborhood and that's it Um, so i'm not a big fan of being long anything here Uh, the longer this goes on the more that these can crack So not a big fan out here Uh, okay, we're up about eight points now on the s&p cash. So they're giving a little bit more than I thought out here Okay We shall see It came late in the day. I'm still Going to stay short if I can through all the way through may Uh, but that's awful hard long time away okay, uh Other questions out here. Um, yeah, and so The silicon is still an issue for other companies There's a lot of discussion right now about that for micron. Uh, it is lower today. You didn't have a lot of volume But again, I don't know if there's a lot of upside You may be finding areas where you might want to be buying the downside on these I just don't think that there's that much upside I had some reversals in some of the stocks that were hired this morning Uh, and uh, that included uh in uh, kameko It's back up into its previous high with about six million shares compared to Just under nine million shares back here on march 23rd. So it's still, you know, it's broken out It came back. You had your opportunity to buy under 27 bucks. In fact, you got to 26 16 But now it's just gonna have to probably consolidate this out for a while Okay, so what else do we have? Oh need to do a little bit of history So, uh About that, uh There we go And it's all a little bit history On this day In 2004 Google launches gmail In 1976 apple incorporates Uh, that's 1976 april 1st But uh, what I want to talk about is jack, uh, and i'm not exactly sure on the pronouncing nation of his name dongaria Uh This gentleman wrote algorithms that sped up algebraic calculations at the heart of most of scientific computing But bigger and the reason that he won the touring prize from google Uh, I think on wednesday and got a cool check for a million dollars Is he also helped develop a message passing interface simply known as mpi There's variants of that now, but they're all based on his original work. They require To spread a single computing job across thousands of processors I think he wrote that in 2014 or 20th 2014 And when we look at the cloud computing and how it came on a lot of people don't understand that this single Um algorithm for handling spreading work across multiple Uh systems Uh, is at the heart of all the money made in web, uh in Cloud computing these days and the whole reason behind all the a lot of the new stuff that we see Uh on the computing side that you as a user probably just ignore But uh a hero on this day Which is normally one where people Have an economy with the truth Uh, and maybe put something on your back that says kick me But I will not do that because after two o'clock It is gauche to be continuing on with april first pranks Okay, let's go back and look at it Um Okay, we're up 10 points. No volume though. There was no volume up. There was no volume down earlier um Seven point that's called 7.5 billion shares But it's been quiet since about noon on both pushes higher and the pushes lower So not expecting a great deal. Let's go back here and look At the Well, apple is getting to going But uh, I was looking for lower. I'll I'll sit on my hands for a while Uh eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight So I think we got some of the questions out here Uh to tomorrow amazing arcs uh stocks are whole uh holding up as uh someone's trying to prop them up Okay, you got that I got that Okay, got that Uh Uh, okay, and I said okay. So we got all those questions. You can email me or ask me in the den I know someone did earlier So let's go back here At the very beginning because I know there's another question out here Okay Um, okay question from z about qualcomm Uh q c o m Uh, it's the first one and then there's another one out here that I know I missed Because I saw it earlier Maybe I'll find it Okay Okay Okay, would I be long planet here? Okay, so I'll get that next Okay, um qualcomm just like just about everything else out here Coming back and retesting the previous low That's march 15th 13905 Um with 13 million shares the problem is you got 13.2 million shares today So you wanted to see this come in with lighter volume Even if you take the candle of the 14th of march that had 16 million shares You're probably going to match that today. So it doesn't look good There's a lot of these companies. I think when it comes down to it But it's probably going to be a lack Of silicon wafers in the next quarter that keeps the keeps the lid On semiconductors. We'll be back after this Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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That's tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv We have a couple of questions About gold I will homogenize them into one We did buy the gdxj In the newsletter yesterday And I was in at about an average of 47 We sold it here Not too long ago and the reason why is gold's down 25, but uh The gdx is up 2 so what's going on here? I have no idea All I know is generally when I don't know the answer to something Uh And I'm lucky enough to be on the right side of the trade Uh, and The charts on something like the gdxj look really good Uh, but you get a kind of a failure into a weekend on gold I don't know what to do So I take the money off the table. Generally, I have kind of an idea even if I'm on the wrong side I'm on the wrong side for a reason And that it's going to correct itself. I kind of know But uh, Jesse Livermore had a line in his book reminiscence of a stock operator No prognosis no profit So it could go to the moon. It could drop five bucks I dislike it when gold is down 25 bucks and the gold miners are up strongly as they are now um They call it cognitive dissonance, but uh, I don't know it makes my head hurt I'll stick with what's making me money now Uh, 877-927-6648 Uh, and we can come back up 11 points on the s&p cash So we'll see I just this looks to me like probably What this market wants to do is close out flat. So maybe we get a doji out here Today, let's take a look at the spy real quick and see um We get a doji out here maybe um And yeah, it'll be a little bit more of a of a tombster of a hanging man But that could be the halfway move in To the what I think Is the move next week and that would take you on the spies back down to probably about 435 So we shall see Monday morning, but I don't see any reason to uh, if you're thinking a little longer term Of covering any shorts here at the moment But uh, if you're trading on a 15 minute bar, that's a another thing all together Okay Okay Question about the ibb from sam And you can email me too at path at tfnn.com Okay You're just up against resistance, uh, which is this gap down that goes back To february 10th and the 11th of which you had about three and a half million shares The last few days 2.7 million shares 2.1 million shares 2 million shares today Trying to push up on 1.6 million shares um You know just up against resistance Maybe you get 138 on them On the ibb I just don't see a lot of juice out here and a lot of risk appetite But uh, things can change quickly in the market Uh question from judy about dlr digital Uh, reality These guys, uh have a lot of places for Web farms and uh Other kind of big installations Uh a lot like this one just up against very Uh heavy resistance, uh down on the 10th of february on 1.4 million shares today You're up on about 460 000 shares So again, some of these stocks are pushing higher that it is not pushing higher With any kind of gusto today Let's take a quick look at the xle As we go around the bases here Okay, uh Well, you're down. You're really not doing anything. You're just hanging at the highs. I don't see any reason to sell it Um, the longer it hangs out here the more likely it's just going to jump up one day So if you're in this for a while, it's much different than if you bought it a day or two ago But uh, I don't see any reason to back off on energy. It will probably Uh on the first bad news gap up and uh on this at 77 78 Could it gap up to 80 81? Yeah, I don't think there's any problem with that Uh to to to okay I got some more emails here Okay, take a look at ung Okay Well, it went a little bit farther than I thought a couple of weeks ago We talked about uh coming up to this gap and it's right there It was either coming up to the one at 17 50 and once it gapped over that Um You were kind of in the clear now you've come up to this double gap that goes back to the 28th Of no of october, excuse me 28th of october. You were down with uh 10.6 million shares You're up on about 4.6 million shares That would probably be the end of this run that started back on the 15th So Yeah, it's probably time to ring the register. You're right at maximum resistance Uh, we're coming into the spring time Um, so you probably got about as much wood on the base on the uh ball as you could probably get on this Uh now if you're talking about an investment, maybe it goes a lot longer But uh natural gas probably going to wane a little bit in strength Um I wouldn't be shorted But certainly crude is probably going to pick up the lion's share over the summer of being a little bit stronger Um now that we're in that Uh, do you think healthcare stocks like unh doing well? So because the elective procedures have been limited. Uh, we talked about this last year Maybe two years ago when we were going into um the uh into the uh pandemic And yes, my my nephew works for a big hospital around new york And uh, he manages A lot of this stuff and he's got six or seven. I can't remember right now six or seven hospitals that report back to him And he does a lot of the work on applying for The reimbursements for these insurance companies and uh, yeah, he said they're all loving it It's been nothing but a goldmine from him since the start of the pandemic And what he's looking for is a lot of these folks have probably died off because they should have had their operation didn't get it But there's going to be a tidal wave probably the summer And that tidal wave is going to be all these people with put off Operations and they're going to just come in one after the other So he's thinking that probably that now especially since he's in the new york area He sees that waning. It's already waned here in florida They're back and operating because i've got a friend that's a nurse Uh, operational nurse operational surgery nurse. What do you call them? Anyway, I'll have to ask her again But a nurse and in surgery, uh, and she's been nothing but busy Uh, but she's had really kind of A couple years of light duty Anyway, we'll be back in a minute We'll see you in a minute From 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts To help you make the right moves with your money Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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You can call 877-518-9190 That's 877-518-9190 Catch toml bryan professional trader and educator founder of tfnn Also a special guest on cnbc tom will bisect and dissect the markets the toml bryan show next on tfnn As we come back in to the close out here We're up only about six points now in the s&p cash and as next flat Gold is still down 25 bucks crude's just a hair under 100 bucks 99 64 we'll see how that goes. I think maybe by next week We'll probably see the low for any of the new news overhang for strategic petroleum reserves dumping out there In the past it's been a big hammer to keep the the price down, but they really have never Released as much as they said they were going to So maybe that'll be one of those things that every time it goes up They will actually release some to try to control for top out crude but long term That's not going to hold they're going to have to have something to put Back in what they took out And it will probably not be at a convenient time But The good part is most of that oil that we stuck in there Is it what a third of the price? That crude is now So not bad there governmental make off like a bandit At least at some level eight seven seven nine two seven six six four. Well, I'm done for the day Really, I'm done for the week. How could you say it? It's april first. I didn't pull any tricks on anybody I was a good boy The market is Probably not going to make us any happy if your barriers are bullish Looks like it's going to close at least in the next 15 minutes looks like flat on the day Could be especially if we get a little bit more of a doji could be the halfway move and it moved down as doji's often are I continue to be rather bearish and probably think that bearishness continues on For the first week of bay In the meantime sell when you can not when you have to And we'll see a bright sun shiny and polished and shiny on monday