 Hi, and welcome to the CMC markets week Monday weekly webinar with myself market analyst David Madden Today's date is Monday the 25th of September and it's just gone one minute It's just gone quarter past 12 as always with the webinar itself As always, we have to go through the risk warning side slides I'll leave them on screen for a couple of sec for a few seconds You have a quick read through the risk warning slides And then I'll continue on with the webinar. It's essentially saying it'll keep my appliance department happy I don't know what would basically do but basically with risk warning sense is that anything that we cover in the webinar today Should not be construed as explicit investment advice. It is just thoughts and commentary And some personal opinions, but nothing is to be construed as actual explicit investment or trading advice Now that we've gotten the Risk warnings out of the way we can now actually focus on the webinar itself So a quick recap of what we've seen this morning Actually, oddly enough We've Germany has actually been the best performer in the major European markets Even though the German election was a bit muddied the wars have been politically muddied Angela Merkel Her party the Christian Democratic Union. It was the largest party both assured the vote declined and It's it's not looking likely that we're going to be having any form of a coalition government formed soon And if you do have a coalition government, what exactly is a coalition going to look like? So the lack of political stability From Germany the strongest and most powerful and most influential country in both the European Union and also the eurozone Has obviously led to a bit of political uncertainty but oddly enough the weak euro has actually and the Worst unexpected German IFO numbers has actually meant that the German market is actually performing better than the UK and it's And it's other major eurozone counterparts not to say that particularly strong It's just holding up pretty well and all things consider to consider and it was a kind of a very kind of middle-of-the-road election There was no kind of there was there was no kind of Clear clear winner of this of this of this election So therefore if we do have some a coalition formed down the line It's not particularly likely it could take several weeks or months of horse trading and wrangling And it's still it's going to be yet to be determined what the coalition is going to look like So because of moves over the weekend euro has been weaker because of that Also, we've seen a bit of uncertainty in Europe as a whole the North Korean situation is the bubbling way in the background The Spanish market the Ibex is performing the worst We also had some problems at the back end of last week and let's continue it over to this day Today is Monday on the Sunday ahead of us in six days time Catalonia It's going to be having a referendum on independence on the seating from the rest of Spain Obviously there was some there was some There were some political scenes of political rest out of the capital out of the capital region last week And that led to a set off in the Spanish market and we're seeing a continuation of that today adding to the political mix The part of Kurdistan which is in inside the sovereign state of Iraq is also holding an independence referendum today So that that's gonna You could see some extra volatility in the old market on account of that And then also Shinzo Abe the Prime Minister of Japan also announced a snap snap election for Later next month But by and large There hasn't been a whole lot of moves over the actual over over the over the past Say 72 hours in terms of the actual financial market moves a lot has been going on in the political world And then a whole lot has been going on in the actual financial markets in terms of the size of the moves Taking a look now the usual kind of rundown and setup of our of our webinar talk about what happened over the weekend We'll have a look at the week ahead. We go through the major markets What I'll do is as always if you it's at any markets that I haven't covered that you would like me to cover Just please stick them in the box when I'm kind of going through the process of going through charts I don't happen to look look at the those charts for you I show to you every single week. I like I need to show it on our website here Under the news analysis section is where you can find or we are Some of the articles that we post goes on the news analysis section. I'll show you where the other ones are posted later on Click on the topic Third one down weekly outlook and I'll give you a breakdown of our weekly outlook That is posted every single week talking about the major economic indicators and corporate stories That are on the that on the pipeline for the next few days To be perfectly honest between corporate stories and also between economic data It isn't the most interesting around on Thursday. We've US GDP on Friday We've UK GDP taking a look at the corporate calendar Obviously if your positions in these stocks, they're important to you importance to yourself, but pretty perfectly honest They're not the most they're not the most popular close brothers and I to serve this company in the UK They have numbers of tomorrow Nike have Q1 numbers out from the US tomorrow taking a look Later part of the week We obviously have a number of companies, but Christmas Carillion is going to be the next one to watch out for on Friday David in the news are fortunate for the wrong reasons in the in the last number of months So we could see some volatility out of Carillion on Friday Taking a look now all the footsie. I can see now. It's just back north of the important 7300 levels. So we start off the ball rolling. We're talking about we're talking about the footsie 100 So it's I mentioned how it's I kind of commented on how it's back north of 7,300 The importance for that is because if you look here from say late June Through well until September. It's a lot of kind of a lot of support found in around that region 7,300 down to around 7,200 and 88 quite a bit once the decent support level in this region crash through Last Two Fridays ago and it's been making its way higher since so we've just managed to kind of eat north of the 7,300 level if you continue to push higher and notice how negative the momentum is declining So it could be a sign. I think it's are kind of changing around if you continue to push higher I mean hold north of 7,300 That the kind of the next hurdle potentially beyond that will be the eternity moving average which comes into it Which comes into play at 7,300 and 27 And then north of that we could be looking towards you could find something to resist potentially find some resistance a 7,300 and 89, which is the fifthly moving average notice how we saw Not and also with the one or two moving average at 7,400 and 18 Notice how we did see a better consolidation in around this area. So the these metrics have On occasion acted as a resistance and also support in the past so potentially people can push higher This could be the next region we would be looking towards should we kind of move lower I've got to continue into kind of downward trend. I mean have you been in recently on the footsie We've been looking back towards Friday's low at 7,200 and 33 and then south of that we will be looking back to two Fridays ago at 7,195 and if you break that Seeing as that that was already a multi-month low should we go south of 7,195 The next potentially big level to watch out for will be the April low at 7,088 Taking a look now at the German market So the German basically essentially for the last couple of weeks the market German markets broke out of this This kind of negative kind of downward kind of channel that has been in smash out of that Well, well easily exceeded the fifthly moving average exceeded the one-day moving average But now the last five or six trading sessions in some Occasionally gaining ground but notice how positive momentum is slipping So it kind of suggests at the kind of positive sentiment that we do have and the kind of the eagerness and the bulls is sort of running out of Steam some what? So levels to kind of watch out for on the Germany 30 on the Dax if if we do break north of this this price here But the end of this day and the high of July 12,670 years Then potentially the next step of the watch out for will be 12,840 but if you do manage to kind of pull back and as I said buying momentum has been sliding recently So we could see a bit of a pullback should be should be see a downward move in the Dax We could potentially find support at the one-day moving average at 12,466 notice how it acted as support here While the market was falling and then it made a clear decisive break north of it when the market was rising So we could potentially see some support in that in that area here 12,466 I showed you move south of that We could be looking back down towards the lows here at 12,333 and then down to the fifthly moving average at 12,276 Just know I was have a quick look at the Swiss market. I'll be perfectly honest with you It's not a market eyes Model for glossy, but I will be sure to to give it a look over now So this is a multi-chart. So this is a very much kind of big picture what we're looking at here This is the whole credit crisis move and broadly speaking Along with global equities from 2009 largely broadly speaking the market has been pushing higher This is I'm looking at a chart I always like to look at the kind of furthest out you kind of top down the analysis as it's called looking for the big picture And they kind of working your way in so what we can kind of clean here from this broadly speaking from 2009 onwards Along with a lot of actually indices around around the world broadly speaking pushing higher And then taking a look now Notice how also kind of monthly momentum is quite strong as well So we got our team positive broadly speaking a positive move for the for the Swiss the Swiss market As you can see here over this over Most global markets did have a bit of a side or a downside move throughout 2016 only to kind of then push higher yet again Taking a look now My preferred chart really would be the daily chart big picture Tell you know what we can see here in line with the kind of weekly chart and also multi-chart is that the markets is pushing higher What we can see here is that we've been sort of range bound ever since it kind of took to what north of 8,800 It's been sort of you know cap between 9,200 to the top 8,800 at the bottom These to be obviously potentially big levels so what to watch out for should you break north or south of That of that particular range where the top end of the range now So we could potentially see is we may see some setting of pressure come in as if and when we approach 9,200 but if but given that we can see the markets been moving higher over the last few weeks As you can see here positive momentum is still quite strong So so if we do happen to break out to the north of the kind of that's called that 9,200 Potentially we could then be looking up towards 9,400 and then potentially 9,600 On the downside should be breaks break below this year equal I said 8,800 but to be probably be more exact may want to kind of look at this level here Which was the August low at 8,000 eight on sorry 8,725 also though It's also not too far away from the tuner day moving average and if you look at this market here The tourney moving average Didn't find a bit of support back in December 2016 So gonna go to show you how strong the market is if for basically all the 2017 The Swiss 20,000 200 has been north or to 20 rather has been north of the tourney moving average So if you do see moves lower in the in the Swiss market, we could potentially see some buying come into play In around the 200 water day moving average at just shy of 9,000 and then south of that I see goes because it did a sort of a range between the 8,800 We got an 8,725 if we go south of that would obviously be taking it to a multi-month low And then that's something you actually potentially could be concerned about a break around the tourney moving average Could set us back to this place here The low from April at 8,500 So turning our attention now, so we've covered the European markets turning our attention now to the fairly strong Broadly speaking bullish US markets We have seen a split bit of a pullback in the Dow Jones in the US 30 It's the trend is very much is very much to the upside And buying buying the dips has been a popular strategy with some traders over the last number of months Should we see any pullbacks in the Dow? We could potentially find support at 22,600 2669 south of that potentially at 22,100 880 and then below that again potentially in a 20,058 Now also as the market is coming off here ever so slightly We also are see a bit of a cooling in positive in positive momentum So given that the price is edging lower and positive momentum is coming off You know that they're both kind of moving in the same direction So we could potentially see a bit of a wider or deeper retracement that we have seen recently In some of the as opposed to some of the booms while the market was pushing higher And then to the upside should be resumed They kind of they kind of fairly Polish trend that has been in the last three months traders to look at towards a kind of big figures 22,500 600 700 and so on It is a fairly looking similar chart when we talk about the S&P 500 You know record highs followed by if you kind of pull back said a bit of a cooling of positive momentum So very obviously, you know, you can see that it's pushing higher We have seen a bit of a cooling in the last couple in the last few training sessions. We've seen a kind of the recent America come off ever so slightly This is a good example of why I like to look at momentum indicator So as the market was going on here this point onwards you're creating fresh record highs You could see the positive even the momentum indicator point that momentum positive momentum is increasing So you could kind of be more confident that that the trend Is is going to last because price is moving higher at the same time the rate of Increase in momentum is the rate in the rate of the buying is also increasing But notice how we see the price cooling off and we ought to see a cooling off in positive momentum So we could potentially see a bit of a move lower in the S&P 500 and areas to potentially watch out for for support in 2488 and then south of that 2480 and then if we do see a further the pullback it might be down towards the 50 day moving average 2470 similar view though the big picture is That markets the S&P is quite strong. So it's it's possibly more likely that we could see a Continuation of record highs being set because as I mentioned buying buying on the dips Has been something of an issue. I do appear to be having I I'm not sure if you guys can still hear me enough We do are having fortune having some issues here. Would you mind please typing in the box if you can't hear me? Can everyone hear me is everything going okay? We just had some we had some Technical you can't hear me excellent. We had some technical issues Just sit tight a fortune. We just had some technical issues and the system logged myself out It's to do with the internet in the overall office. It's on our end Not on your end. I do apologize. Can everyone Can you see the screen? Okay Apologies for that. We just had some technical issues on our side It was to do with the overall big kind of the network in our office disappeared to kind of had a slight wobble there But I'm seeing signs that things are back to normal if everyone can see and hear me And if I'm pleased to type in the box because I don't want to be leaving anyone behind When we proceed with the webinar because it does appear that things are back to normal I'll just put the Yes, oh excellent. So it appears that it's only minor disruption. I was just talking about the S&P 500 of the ring of my watch list I'll be back on track with the webinar Pick up where I left off. I believe I was saying that we have seen some by the Bible on the pullbacks Has been popular strategy by some traders for the S&P 500 in recent weeks seeing as Here's we go etch. We kind of get we've seen a lot of new record highs being kind of matched up often on a daily back-to-back day-to-day basis so As I mentioned, we are seeing a bit of a cooling and volume pressure about that particular there that may potentially Attract some buyers to enter the fold and look into looking to the upside. We've been looking towards 22,510 2520 and 1340 and so on because the big picture for the S&P has been has been has been very bullish We see a lot of record highs Recently, we're not seeing any kind of indication that the final momentum that that we're not seeing any kind of signs of a Kind of a major reversal on the horizon Seeing as as it conversely talking about the price of gold gold has been Broadly speaking and in a downward trend for the last couple of weeks Was for over two weeks now because it was two Fridays ago Gold hate at that 13 month high and then ever since then it has been giving up the ground Notice how the price of gold sold off quite aggressively. We had the Fed Fed recent Fed meeting here on the Wednesday the Fed reserve Still pointing towards a rate hike in December whether the market believes that or not is another thing They raised their growth forecast, but they also lowered their inflation Forecast and what we've seen here on the back of that continued hours now. We're selling gold But notice how we've been seemed to be kind of resting in around the 58 moving average And so this is potentially going to now be an important level to watch out for the price of gold It is worth noting that we had sort of what's called kind of inside days or by after this after this large move lower on Thursday The movies on Friday remain within the range of Previous day and also you can see similar move here. We're on Today's days and over yet, but so far we have one hand We haven't taken out the highs of Friday or Thursday for the same time We haven't taken up the lows of Friday So we're still up above the low of last week I know that now that we're seeing it at the market hover in around the fifth day moving average Which is in around 1280 a 1290 region. We could potentially see Some so some buyers enter the fold in around here Notice how as the price Was pushing lower. We saw positive momentum decline then it swung negative and it's still very much in the negative side But we're just not it's almost like the rate of change of selling pressure is remained unchanged because it's It reaches quite high level here and has really increased or decreased beyond that So, you know as we could see a fresh ball of selling that we could smash through the fifth day moving average That maybe reflected by a ramp up in negative momentum or potentially as we often see here In looking at previous examples or mine is a gradual increase followed by a dash gradual deep decrease And that is reflected by a turn around in the price So something to watch out for and gold should we move south of the fifth day moving average, which is in around the kind of 1290 region Next potential level maybe for support could be in here at this all at this pullback here in August at 1276 and in south of that at the one or day moving average at 1269 notice how we saw kind of an overlapping of the what the 50 moving average and the 100 a moving average in price of gold in Early August. I want to be happier. They were acting in around Apologies for that they were acting Provide a bit of support for the metal So these areas are as they have a bit of form with the path as you would say Have active support we could see them acting as a poor potentially in the future or for the 50 moving average at the present I move south of the fifth of the one or day moving average at 1269 Would be something to be concerned about and that could be an indication that we would potentially on track to the turning moving average at 1245 but if you do see more buyers into the fold here And if you do get a break north of 1300 next level to watch out for potentially to the upside 1360 30 34 and 1358 30 58 the 13th one time and then north of that will be the next potential level of resistance Could be a 1375 which was the 2016 high and then a break north of 3075 May then bring the psychological important 13 and 1400 level into play as he mentioned about the Turkish Sorry apologies Kurdish region of Iraq is having it as a referendum on independence today what we're seeing as I mentioned we could see some Some volatility in the all mark on the back of that both Brent and WTI are higher on the day actually in terms of you kind of the Terms of the geography the issue is Iraq is obviously a major all-producing country and And the relatively large amount of the oil is in the northern part of the sovereign state of Iraq Which comes in which is also and they can offend diagram if you will of the Kurdish Of the Kurdish nation and if the Kurdish part section of Iraq 10 looks to secede from the rest of Iraq We could see political upheaval. We could see disruption to production of all It's why we're seeing higher prices in both all contracts Notice how we've been in a fairly clear and concise offer trend for Brent Since basically end of June pushing higher on Brent We've even actually managed to actually trade only in the last few minutes because it puts this This line here on a few years before the webinar become even as you manage to trade ever so slightly north Of this line here, so it looks like we've actually for the price of For the price of bread it would appear that it's been created a new high in for for bread oil for the for the year for the year to date for 2017 so bullish That the momentum is clearly with the polls and should be kind of continue to kind of break north of this line here at a third, I guess price action here of This price here which comes in which is in a price action of Apologies for that 57 17 73 cents should be a break north of actually make a decisive break note of that that level and then may potentially come support for From going forward and like levels to watch off for beyond that will be $58 a barrel $59 a barrel and $60 a barrel because bearing in mind when we get to the kind of $58 to $60 reaching in the price of oil It takes us back to a time when oil was moving quite fast around that if you recall here in the kind of In the kind of mid 2015 era. We saw that a Fast sell off the price of also there wasn't really a whole lot of levels to watch off for on the downside It's quite likely moved so quickly Just just to reiterate should you make it a slice of break north of where we are in around here If you go north of $58 we the next potentially kind of big levels to watch off for a Brent Might be in $59 and $60 per barrel It's a similar looking chair, but not quite the same for the price of WTI hasn't hasn't had it hasn't had they kind of quite as the same They're bullish uptake that that Brent has had disruption caused by couple of hurricanes in the United States Knocked out the capacity and operation ability at the final is the US and the fact of the demand as this hasn't really been as strong since conversely with Capacity being knocked out for the operation in the United States all of a sudden that makes Brent all the more attractive For people in the rest of the world So therefore you have the kind of disparity between the two or Brent becomes more demand WTI is less than the man's hence the widely of the prices But on the less broadly speaking price of WTI has been pushing higher as you can see today We're trading at the highest level of that seems as late May And WTI should we continue on and they can offer trend that we've been in Broadly speaking for a number of months, but more realistically speaking for about three or four weeks You continue on pushing higher here potentially the next level of resistance might come into play at the may high of $51.66 and then north of that Tennis might be looking towards the April high of $53 and 56 cents Move to the downside in WTI may find support in around here the two-day moving average $49.30 notice how it actually has a bit of support here In the early part and become a middle of September and then south of that potentially Support coming to play at a 50-day moving average at $48.30 Just move on to a few of the major currency pairs though, then I'll be looking to wrap up the webinar itself Having looked now at the year of dollar the year of dollar has been Holding up both But it's been fairly considering the moves that we had in the summer time It's been a bit more on the kind of quieter side in terms of the range as we've seen on the on the euro dollar We have seen a bit of a bit of a retreat In the price and also kind of mirrored by the fact that if you see a slight increase in negative momentum So we could potentially see further Losses for the single currency versus the greenback and if you do put a push lower on that particular currency pair We could be looking back towards this price is this low here from the only money from last week At 1 8 1 18 37 and then south of that because we could see retracing back to the 50-day moving average which comes into place in around the kind of 1 18 24 region and then south of that again Back towards 1 17 0 8 these are kind of areas because The the single currency hasn't really made much ground versus the versus the greenback ever since going on to print that after having a stellar run To the month of September, but we could have we're only speaking Pushing kind of sideways but kind of sideways because of the bias towards the downside on that it a move We would we would potentially know you would like to see move north of the 120 region before you can actually You know potentially look they kind of Maybe see another kind of Another attack potential attack on the 120 92 region and then up towards 121 120 Bearing in mind. We actually have Mario Draghi the head of the ECB speaking and I have to London time So not too far away at all. Maybe in just under just under two hours time Taking a look now The furnished pound versus the US dollar your cable church cable has been fairly range bound I think it's been fairly The last few training sessions have been fairly quiet sort of 130 slowly nearly 136 at the upside and What the 134 kind of 50 is to the downside? We would like to see kind of move a break Either direction out of that and given that while the price was clearly ratcheting off here I was reflected in a fairly decent ratchet up also in positive momentum but this is this is sort of a Sort of a good example of why like to look at the momentum indicator whereby if you see diverges between the two whereby the price is moving one direction and the momentum is moving Another or there are signs of that in research to pull away from the same direction Price was in that could be an early early warning sign potentially. So as the price is pushing higher We're seeing that to push higher, but then The cable went on to print a new higher high here at the same time the momentum was Distinctively lowest and that's could be a sign that for prices that are creating new highs But we're like those aren't reflected in new highs For the momentum it could be an indication that okay Maybe maybe the buying pressure or the kind of energy that the bull's half is kind of running on a steam a bit I don't saw we've been kind of declining in the terms of positive momentum that being said the price has been fairly range bound It's sort of 136 in the top about about 134 50 to the bottom So a break break to the downside could see it to turn back towards 134 And if you go to 134, we could be looking back towards 132 67 and in south of that We could be looking towards 131 64 As I mentioned a break north of 136 kind of put us back up to looking towards 136 59 And then north of that turns looking towards 137 138 and then at that point we'd be back in the process of creating multi-month highs and even Taking our chart back further afield you could see here that we haven't actually had pound up versus the British dollar at that level since actually the EU referendum The UK's is EU referendum night. So that give indication of kind of how far back we are talking about Looking now at the pound euro birth pound Not too dissimilar that we are seeing a bit of a bit of sideways range bound trading So obviously we had a kind of quite a Progressive push higher followed by a fairly fairly decent pullback Whether this is going to be a pullback and a resumption of the wider trade or whether this is going to be something something larger As you have to be seen Pushing lower as you can see here as the price was coming off. We as the image We can saw we saw a fairly increase The very incisive increase in the rate of negative momentum, and then we notice how The price is sort of going to hang on it around the kind of 89 down to around kind of 89 back down towards the kind of 88 region here sort of almost like trapped in the kind of hundred point range We are seeing that a cooling of the of the of the negative momentum So they kind of setting a pressure is coming to decline whether the product whether this is going to be just an eye a Correction in a wider upper trend or whether there's been something larger than the FTB seen But for the time being we seem to be a range bound on this currency pair It can't really kind of break north of the one or day moving average at 88 77 north of that We've looking towards 89 And then if we have the size of move to 89 because I'm looking towards, you know It kind of psychological 90 cent level and then north of that the 50-day moving average at 1936 Should be kind of should be kind of move for continuing in the downward trend that we've been in for the past number of weeks We've potentially looking back towards the 100-day moving average at this price here at 87 18 And then south of that we're looking back towards 87 itself and ended back down towards 86 the dollar yen as big as my quite the comeback in only in only issue in the space of about In the space of a specific couple of weeks We obviously had quite a fairly gradual decline here creation of lower lows and lower highs From from July from early July mid-July not to kind of it's mid September And then very quickly to go to got this high here to got this high here to got this high here So we're pushing higher Move north of the two of the 30 moving average But you know only kind of just and if you kind of hanging it in around that area ever since Though it's not going to positive momentum had ramped up or seeing a slight kind of cooling of a soul Be it we've kind of we've seen this movie before as it were or by this kind of decent Increase in momentum as the markets moving in a certain direction in this case pushing higher But then it's like we are seeing the potential signs that the bulls are being stalled a bit so But if you can hang nor if you remain north of the two-day moving average Which is in around the kind of 112 20 region or pretty much in round the kind of price action that we're at now We could potentially see push higher towards 113 Another potential area for resistance could be in at 113 57, and then it can what will be a big Possibly potentially be significant level to watch out for will be one of 14 49 So because it's sort of it was the July high and it was sort of you could you could kind of look towards it kind of Also, you can also kind of say that it's not too far away from the from the bay high on top of that Move to the downside if it can't if it's just back though the two-day moving average We could see return potentially back to the one-day moving average It did provide support and the only only a few days ago at the one-day moving average at 111 spot What spot 11 and then south of that and back down towards one ten and if you could do continued If you go south of one ten that could be in the indication that they kind of wider downward trend that that has been in At 12 largely speaking throughout 2017 is still intact And if should we move south of the 110 if we look back towards 109 and then potentially back towards 107 32 Just before I finish up what I quickly do as always show the website Where we have a very different things you may find of interest so we have a chart forum here Chart forum if you go to the trading pulse and the third option down chart forum What we'll do is run it right a few hundred characters and snap on a picture of a chart I'm just gonna do you can very much to the point potential levels Possibly some kind of commentary on what Because the the market has been doing so just keep an eye out. They're updated on a daily basis What's also updated on daily basis throughout the day is the insights as you mentioned at the top of the webinar Some of the news analysis we post gets gets posted to the website other bits gets gets posted on the inside inside the trading platform Said to find the inside click on the market pulse and then at the second option down so it talks about some of the articles we post and also Some of the economic announcements that happen throughout the day. They also get uploaded to the inside section Lastly Just want to be keep you informed of future webinars So obviously our one is on every single Monday at 12 every Monday trade every from the mark when that's not a bank holiday in the UK Every single every Monday at 12 15, but we also have a couple of other webinars on the go as well So later tonight at 1900 hours 7 p.m. London time. We have the trader development program part 4 So feel free to sign up for that and on Wednesday at 1930 for the summer time 7 30 p.m. London time we have the another webinar cut this and that was called the The trading mind how how trainers do it differently and then of course I'll be I'll be here and hopefully so with you next Monday at 12 15 Once again, I do apologize for the minor technical issue. We had in the middle of the webinar Thank you for your patience and have a good dreading week. Thank you very much