 Good day, fellow investors. Just an update on the economic news that has been coming out in the last weeks that is good and a little bit bad. Then we'll discuss yields that are affecting emerging markets and touch on Italy and the risks that are piling up there. So let's dig into the data. The consumer price index is close to 2.5, which is good, but less than expected. Nevertheless, it might lead to higher interest rates, no matter what Wall Street expects or not. Higher oil prices lead the impact on prices, but those take time to really affect the economy, as usually it takes a year or two for oil prices to hit negatively the economy, which we could see then a little bit later. So that's again a risk. Something also very, very important to look at is that new vehicle prices year over year change is negative at 1.5%, which means that companies are finding it more difficult to sell cars and they have to lower the prices. Higher interest rates, higher credit costs and less demand for cars. That's how it works and that's what you have to be aware of if you are invested in the cyclical automotive industry. Further, credit card debt has stopped climbing and for the first time in five years we see it slightly declined due to higher interest rates. Higher interest rates would also impact companies and their profits, but few think about that and about the refinancing needed in the next few years. This is the maturing debt of US corporations and you can see the pile of debt that has to be refinanced in the next 10 years and each year it is above 700 billion. Higher interest rates will weigh on interest costs and on earnings, especially if there is a slowdown in the economy and we have already seen less spending, less car purchases and less credit card debt. This pile of debt on the other hand is okay if as long as the economy is expanding and there is confidence, but we all know that when something like this is piling it becomes a risk and as investors we always have to look at the risk reward. In this case keep in mind that the risks are piling. Fortunately other metrics are still strong, the unemployment indicators are extremely strong with unemployment rate down to 3.9. However the yield curve is getting flatter and flatter which is a signal that the party might be coming to an end in the next, as we said in another video, 9 to 24 months. When the yield curve flattens it is a sign for an upcoming recession, at least has been in the last nine cases. So in emerging markets higher interest yields on the dollar and their debt is mostly denominated in dollars puts pressure on those countries and we have seen the Brazilian Rial declining, trouble in Argentina, Turkey has trouble and a lot of those emerging highly indebted countries starts to see trouble from the higher dollar and higher oil costs if they are not an oil exporter of course. However you have to see everything is in balance and everything is interconnected globally so that lower demand from there might put pressure on around things that are going on. People are still not yet looking at the comprehensive risks but at some point in time Bloomberg will start flashing risk risk risk and then everybody will be panicking so it can happen next week, next six months, who knows but the sentiment might turn very quickly because there are the numbers for that. Even if the economy is still growing everything is good, the employment is good but that cannot last forever so just something to keep in mind. Further just comment on Italy the risks are piling there because the new government is made by comedians and the right-wing party anti-immigrant party which has some crazy ideas. They have a plan to put the flat tax for 15% for people and businesses, a citizen's income to poorer retaliants which is interesting because Italy has a debt to GDP ratio of 130% the highest in Europe after Greece and they want to give more money to the Italians. That's how it's done that's why the Italians live much better than other people for example in the Netherlands and in Germany so perhaps we in the north should do the same. So from an investment perspective the risks with every day that goes on goes on are piling and that's something we have to keep in mind. The best thing to do is to be hedged a little bit see how you can best hedge yourself. When the stock market is so high hedges are not that expensive and that's what I keep saying. So everything is interconnected sooner or later the growth has to stop no matter how you see it or inflation rises or costs rise that put the pressure on something when something cracks that chain continues downwards and then we have more monetary easing gold hedges etc etc. So just to share of what's going on in the macroeconomics to give you perspective for your portfolio location and your hedging. Thank you for watching I'll see you in the next video.