 Hi everyone, this is Mike Kramer and my capital with a check-in today is August 29th around 525 New York time US markets are now closed So today we had a bunch of economic data, and it's just gonna get more intense as the week goes on And so I would expect That volatility in the markets gonna remain Elevated and of course volatility works both ways going up and down So we did see a lot of price action today Following the jolts report which came in and showed 8.8 million job openings as of the end of July This was less than what was expected 9.5 million while last month was revised lower to 9.1 million This could have a double-edged sword in some ways because we know that the job market has been strong in the US We know the unemployment rate is low We know that the job reports have been fairly Consistently, you know coming in better than expected although the last two have been a little bit weaker And this data could be telling us, you know one of two things either, you know the demand for employees is Slowing or employers are actually for the first time and you know a number of years are actually beginning to fill all the jobs They have vacant which could mean that some of the workers that are have been sitting on the sidelines and Left after the pandemic began may slowly be starting to re-enter the labor force We really just don't know at this point and we'll have to see what the data looks like when that comes in now tomorrow We're gonna get the 80p employment report 195,000 jobs are expected to have been created This is going to be down from the 224,000 last month, of course, we're gonna get the second reading on the GDP That's expected to be 2.4 Which would be in line with the initial reading then of course We're also going to get some of these inflation metrics But again these inflation metrics are going to be for the second quarter And they're not going to have anything to do with the data We're due to get later this week, which is for the month of july Markets responded pretty strongly to this joltz data today. We saw the 10-year rate Move down again the 10-year rate got pretty overbought Over the last two weeks and you can see we hit the upper Bollinger ban Today we came through and went through the 20-day moving average so You know at this point you can't really say any more that the 10-year is overbought There is a little bit of a trend line here. It looks like you know, we're flirting with that trend line You know, you could maybe argue it's been broken But again one day doesn't necessarily make much of a trend Overall you can see that the trend has been higher And given that this market seems to be very volatile and any data point could really be You know, you could get a hotter report tomorrow And then all of a sudden today's declines Could vanish very quickly and you could see a treasury a 10-year treasury rate easily approaching again four and a quarter percent Or if not maybe even going back to the highs And certainly when you look at the two-year rate the two-year rate as of friday was trading up near 510 and today we were trading down at 490 So a really big movement in the two-year treasury And again, what you're looking at here is a very strong level of support around this 472 region But all it's going to take is a little bit of stronger than expected data And this two-year rate can easily begin to move back up towards the upper end of the range And potentially get back to this 510 region You know, and a lot of what we've been seeing has really been taking place on the back of the curve And you've seen that the you know, the 10-2 curve has really started to Show signs of re steepening and that's mostly because you're seeing the 10-year rate rise to the two-year rate And this is a bare steepener and typically this is happening when you When you have the back of the curve rising to the front of the curve and This could be you know a sign of a market that's realizing. Hey, maybe we made a mistake. There's no recession coming So now we have to back that out and now we're looking at maybe a stronger economic picture And certainly for this for this to continue to move higher From a standpoint of it being a bare steepener Then you would have to continue to see really strong economic data to support that move Clearly if we were to begin to see the two-year falling to the 10 and the curve to be You know re steepening from that standpoint that would be more of a sign Of the fed potentially of the market thinking the feds potentially going to start cutting rates And so right now we're sort of still in this regime where you know We have the uptrend in the 10-year rate if you continue to get stronger data It looks to me like you're going to see the back of the curve continue to move higher Much higher than that of the the front of the curve And so when we move into the dollar the dollar got beat up also pretty well today It's sort of a the the euro's really been struggling To get direction at this point you can see that there's Clearly a downtrend in the euro But it's really been struggling to make a decisive break one way or the other around this 108 and a half level This is really again the key level because if we can if you can get a decisive move Without one of these big retraces Then you can really start seeing the euro begin to really Drop here and really weaken versus dollar and Ultimately, you know the next big support level wouldn't really be to around 106 but one of the problems that's Really happening here is that the euro and most major currencies are really at an inflection point as well Because they're not really sure at this point which way they want to go again waiting for this big round of economic data That's coming which is why You know, I continue to think that this is one of the more important weeks of the year because all of a sudden if you get some Employment data that suggests that hey the employment the the u.s. Labor market is still very strong You know, you're going to see the euro probably undercut these lows at 107 80 or so and start making that move to 106 Likewise, if you were to see a weaker than expected number you could see the the dollar The euro rise back over 108 90 109 and start making a move higher again and strengthening versus a dollar So this remains one of those situations where you could see You know quite a big movement in these currencies and you know, what what these currencies do Are going to have a big impact on where equity markets go and you can see even here Like we were looking at on the 10-year looked like there was maybe a break of a trend line on the us 10-year And it almost looks like there's also been a break of the trend line On the euro so again We're going to have to watch these levels tomorrow to see if there's actually follow-through to the upside in this jdp job report May very well be a determining factor there when we look at the british pound versus a dollar We can also see again that the british pound's been sort of hovering around this level of Support right here around 126 20 or so and this is again a big level because again if we get a number that's Hotter than expected tomorrow You're probably could expect the pound to break below this 125 60 region and start making a move to 123 You get a number that's weaker than expected and all of a sudden you could be looking at a pound that trades back up to this 127 area So this is a very sort of dynamic market. You can also see the same Set up really in the end the ends basically stalled out around this 146 44 region Again, you get strong data tomorrow. The yen's probably going to be weakening materially versus a dollar Even then when you look at the Aussie dollar versus a dollar The Aussie dollar has been weakening materially against the us dollar because Australia is heavily linked to and tied towards China we know that struggles that china has been having and here again You have what basically looks like a zone of support And resistance right now in the dollar Aussie dollar between this You know 64 cents and 64 80 Again, you get a strong data point out of the us tomorrow. You're looking at a potential break of the 64 cents And a potential move lower to around 62 likewise cooler data gets you moving higher up the potentially is 60 66 area So You know and when we start looking at all these different currencies It's the same thing with the canadian dollar which we've touched on you can see the canadian dollars had a lot of weakening It's come back up All the way back to and retrace after this diamond reversal pattern And so again, you start getting strong data points This is potentially a very big level here at 136 30 136 40 On the dollar canadian dollar FX exchange because again you this is a big level of resistance So tomorrow and the rest of this week really are going to be critical because I mean the equity market for the most part Has been just trading with the dollar of strength and dollar weakness. So It's probably not by chance again that you have, you know, the nasdaq 100 trading back up to this 15,400 region Which was a big level of support and resistance now going back for some time So again, you know, you have a nasdaq right now That had a really strong rally day today because of dollar weakness weaker You know falling yields plus you had a negative gamma regime in us equities And so, you know, if you're in a negative gamma regime that sort of adds to volatility This move almost looks, you know, symmetrical to what this drop was The positive thing here for the nasdaq It's a 10 day exponential moving average 50 and 20 day moving simple moving averages today And it could rise a little bit further before hitting its upper bologna band But certainly from this standpoint this 15,415 region is of major importance because if you fail at this level You probably give all the gains back that you've seen the last couple of days If you were able to surpass this level you could probably start moving Higher and start thinking about some of these Gap fills that are still outstanding here on the nasdaq at around 15,700 Again, you really need to see the nasdaq tomorrow not only open higher But you probably want to see a gap above this 15,425 region That would be a signal of strength and signal of potential for this fill at 15,700 Anything less than that you're probably looking at a retrace to this low of 15,400 when you look at the dow It's not really all that much different. We see the dow Was able to get above this level of resistance that we've been focused on now for some time this 34,600 region Which has been a major A major sticking point for the dow for some time It made some very strong headway today But again, it needs to be held because there's another level of resistance up here around 35,000 The dow can continue the momentum tomorrow 35,000 seems like a logical target Otherwise you're looking at potentially, you know again giving all this back and coming back below the 34,500 region 600 region And maybe even filling this gap down here at 34,350 over the very short term So, um, you know, these are some of the things that are going on in the market You're also going to want to pay attention to oil Because oil obviously heavily tied to China. There's talk of them doing some more, you know Stimulus rounds trying to cut rates trying to get things going in their economy So again, keep an eye on oil. It's kind of held some key support here around 78 We're now back up above 81 You know, if you clear 8170, maybe there's some room to get back up to around 8340 8350 or so Anyway, that's all I have for you today. Best of luck. Take care