 All right, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to this month's non-farm payrolls webinar on Friday, the 3rd of November, with me, Michael Hueson. And coming at the end of what has been or could be one of the strongest weekly gains for US markets this year, it's certainly been a significant turnaround from the slow declines that we've seen over the course of the last three months. And I think, for me, I think one of the reasons why we've seen a significant turnaround, there's a couple of reasons. And I think a large part of that has been to do with this week's central bank rate meetings. We obviously started with the European Central Bank last week when they left rates unchanged. They're still trying to keep the idea of a rate hike on the table. Personally, I don't buy that. I think it's highly unlikely that the ECB will be hiking rates further. And if anything, the next move is likely to be a rate cut. I think the big question is when that comes about. Obviously, this week, we also heard from the Bank of Japan, they tweaked their yield curve control policy, bringing it into line with their bond buying. And it was a bit of a surprise. I thought that they put the cap slightly higher than 1%, but they haven't. And that's why you saw the end weekend and the dollar gain. And a large part of the reason why the dollar was gaining in the early part of this week was, I think, really as a consequence of the fact that markets still felt that the Federal Reserve had another rate hike in it. I'm not sure they do. And I certainly think that's what bond markets are reading in to the moves that we've seen so far this week. We've seen a big, big drop in US 10 year yields. I can show you that here on this 10 year yield chart. The last three days, I mean, obviously, that's Wednesday, it's the 31st of October. And then the 1st of November, big drop. And then another big drop and another big drop. So in the space of three days, we've gone from 493 to 463. That's 30 basis points, 30 basis points decline in the US 10 year, which suggests to me that the market thinks the Fed is done. Certainly you think they still want to push the line of higher for longer. And I'm still of the opinion that the potential for another Fed rate hike is very much there. The bigger question is whether it will come in December, or whether the resilience of the labor market, the resilience of headline inflation, services inflation will mean that it could come in the first part of next year. So much, I think, depends on the US data that we see over the course of the next couple, two to three weeks, I think, in terms of whether or not we see a December rate hike. I was to say, I think the Fed's done, the Bank of England has definitely done 5.25%. And I think, again, with the Bank of England, it's really about when we get the first rate cut. Certainly, market is not buying the higher for longer narrative from the Bank of England. And I think that that narrative will be further reinforced next week when we get third quarter GDP numbers out of the UK on Friday. I'm expecting a reading of stagnation 0%, or even negative minus 0.1. Compare that to the US third quarter GDP, which is 4.9 annualized. And you can see why I want to keep the prospect of another rate hike from the Fed on the table, but dismiss entirely the idea of a UK rate hike, or even possibility that the UK will keep rates higher for longer. So that's the first main reason why we've seen a big rebound in equity markets this week. The market thinks the Fed's done. There's also been a significant decline in geopolitical risk premia out of the Middle East. We've seen oil prices decline, or at least on course, for its second weekly decline in a row. I think there's a growing hope that the skirmishing will be localized. It won't spread beyond that particular region. And also, some of the numbers that we've seen out so far this week have been fairly positive. Certainly, they haven't been anywhere near as bad as perhaps an awful lot of people feared that they might be. But make no bones. The only thing that's really changed in the past week or so is that the markets have suddenly decided that central banks are done, and the next likely moving rates is likely to be cut. So that's what's prompted the rebound that we've seen in equity markets. So let's get started. Can the gains that we've seen so far this week continue? Yes, they can, but we are still very much in a downtrend and have been since July-August. We've seen a significant rebound off these lows. We can go a little bit higher, but we are going to start running into resistance in and around the highs that we saw back in October on the S&P around about 4390, 4400, as well as the 50-day moving average. So I think for the stocks to continue to go higher, we need to see some deterioration in US economic data, because that will reinforce the narrative that the Federal Reserve is not going to be cutting rate, is not going to be hiking rates anytime soon. And ultimately, the next move in rates is likely to be a cut. And I think that for me is the key takeaway that I've taken from this week's events. Even though nothing much has changed, the data that we've seen, the macro data that we've seen, not only out of the US, but also from the UK and Europe, has been uniformly pretty horrible. If you look at the PMIs, they haven't been good. Manufacturing still in recession. Manufacturing has been poor in the US for the last 12 months. So it's not really anything new. Services is really what's keeping the economies afloat at the moment. So depending on your idea of risk and whether or not you think the markets are going to become risk averse, I wouldn't argue that dollar is a seller on a rally, even on the basis of a strong payroll's report. Because if you think the dollar is going to go higher, then you've got to think that there is a significant cap to where markets are likely to go anytime soon. Because essentially the dollar has been acting as a bit of a haven trait over the course of the past few weeks. And you can see that in dolly yen. I mean, obviously, there's a yield play there as well. But certainly in dolly yen, Euro dollar is starting to look a little bit better bid. Surprisingly, I think when you consider that I think the ECB will have to cut rates in the first half of next year in response to some of the data that we're seeing out of the Euro area and inflation, this week came in at 2.9% in the flash October EUCPI 2.9% down from 4.3, 4.2%. So we are seeing a significant slowdown. So the ECB to start talking nonsense about, oh yeah, we've still got further right hikes in the bag. Sorry, I just do not buy that for one moment. There are significant splits on the ECB governing council. But ultimately, I think that would be an enormous act of self harm for them to continue to do that. So in terms of what we're expecting today on non-farm payrolls, a number of around about 185,000, if that's in line with expectations, I'm struggling to see much more upside this week in the event of a number which comes in line with expectations. Because we've come so far in such a short space of time, you think about where we were Monday or we were last Friday and now where we are now. We're up over 5%, nearly 4.5%, 5% on the S&P and the NASDAQ. As we head into a weekend, are you going to want to continue to buy stocks or are you going to take some money off the table ahead of next week? Given the fact that we could see events unfold over the weekend that could be risk-negative, if it was me, I'd be cautious about being overly long of stocks after the week that we've just had irrespective of today's payrolls numbers. And in all probability, they could well be good. Every month this year, US non-farm payrolls have always come in ahead of the consensus forecast. So why should today be any different? Looking at the numbers, weekly jobless claims, 217,000, slightly higher than they were four weeks ago when they dipped below 200,000. But the labor market's not falling off a cliff. The job openings numbers were fairly positive earlier this week, but we knew that because we saw 336,000 jobs added in September, albeit 151,000 of them were part-time. But ultimately, the services sector is still likely to remain resilient for the US economy and the lead up to Christmas. Only this week, Amazon announced that they were going to be taking on 250,000 temporary workers between now and the holiday period to cope with any extra demand for goods and services. Now, I'm not saying that Amazon is representative of the entire US jobs market, because on the flip side of that, you had Target, another US retailer, saying that they were starting to see evidence that the US consumer was being much more picky about what they were spending their money on. So the US labor market is weaker. The ISM manufacturing numbers that we saw earlier this week bear that out. The employment component was weaker, but a prices paid component was weaker as well. So looking at this NASDAQ chart, we've seen a decent rally. We could see a bit of resistance coming in around about the 50-day moving average, but also this trend line resistance up here. The trend is still down. So I still remain to the opinion that we sell stock markets on rally while those trends are in place. FTSE 100 seen a fairly decent rebound off the lows in and around this area here. Once again, it's held fairly well. And again, approaching the 50-day moving average, starting to see a little bit of profit taking heading into the weekend. That is not surprising to me. If we get a number in line with expectations, we could well see a little bit of profit taking heading into the weekend. Similar sort of story here again, higher lows, sorry, lower highs, lower lows. So the trend is still down despite the rebound that we've seen so far this week. Dolly Yen. Okay, Dolly Yen, we've seen a fairly decent pullback. If yields continue to decline, or at least remain soft, then I can certainly see scope for Dolly Yen to decline further. The big level is last year's highs at $151.95. We fell short of that this week. We've drifted back, got support at around about $149.80. Below that $147.85, which is also these lows here, sorry, $148.85, $148.75, $148.80 there. So we could see a drift back down towards those lows, but at the moment, the dollar is still very much a buy on dips. Just on the basis of what the price action is telling me with respect to Eurodollar and every other currency pair, Eurodollar's in a range and we can see that here. Toppy anywhere near $106.80, $107. If we do break above here, then we could well see a move back to $107.80. But I struggle with the idea that Euro's going to strengthen against the dollar. Just on the basis of the fact that I think US rates are likely to remain higher for longer. That should be Euro negative. Similar sort of story for cable. We have broken this here, but I'm not overly concerned about that. I think the bigger level is $123. It's also coincides with the 50-day moving average. And again, we're very much in a range there. I'm not really expecting too much a dollar weakness, much beyond $123 in the short to medium term. And it's also the Canadian jobs report. Last two months, I've seen very strong jobs reports out of Canada. We've seen a big drop off from the highs that we saw earlier this month. If we get anything resembling a decent report out of Canada, then we could well see fallback to the 50-day moving average and this series of lows through here. Obviously, the Canada is also weakening on the back of the slightly weaker oil price that we've seen over the course of the past few days as well. So what am I looking for? Basically, if anything like $230, $240, it's likely to be mildly dollar positive, but I don't expect it to materially impact the overall direction that we've seen. It's also likely to be, see, yields tick higher as well. And consequently, if yields tick up, stock markets will drift back down. If we get a really big miss to the downside, then that should be positive for stocks, very positive for stocks. But I think the upside will be capped heading in to the weekend. So I think in terms of upside, irrespective of the number that we get, we're likely to be fairly limited given the gains that we've seen thus far. That being said, a poor number could see us retest the highs, push up towards the highs before drifting back down again. Anything around about 180, 190, 200. Again, I think we've seen the move this week, and I think really it's about how we finish the week, whether stocks finish the week slightly off the peaks or whether we close at or near the high. So 180, keeping an eye on that number, wages will also be very interesting. That's expected to fall quite sharply. So that could actually be positive for stocks if we see a big drop in that as well. Unemployment rate, not overly concerned about the unemployment rate. If the edge is higher, again, that could be positive for stocks, because ultimately, it's what the Fed wants to see. So I'll be quiet now and we'll await for the numbers to break. 150. So that should be fairly positive for stocks. So let's see how that breaks going forward. 297, a revision down from 336. 17.5 on the Canada Jobs Report. So slightly below expectations. Let's just get shot of that. Let's look at the dollar reaction, as you would expect. Slightly dollar negative and stocks positive. So let's see how or whether or not we can actually break this 107.20 area on Eurodollar. This is exactly in line of what we want to see in keeping stock markets looking relatively positive on the day. 150,000, 4.1, wages slightly weaker, but the revision higher, 4.3 to 4.1, and the unemployment rate to 3.9. So this is exactly what the Fed wants to see. It's going to feed into the narrative now, I think, of the Fed is done. And ultimately, you're probably going to see the dollar weekend and stocks test higher. So that should push Dolly N down. And sure enough, it is doing exactly that. So I think we could well see a retest of these lows down here of around about 148.75, 148.80 over the course of the next few sessions. Any questions, apart from what we've already discussed? I've answered your question on Dolly N, equity market rebound. Let's have a quick look at oil prices. Again, they're up for the second day in a row. Getting a little bit of a spike on that. And that's probably just down to the fact that the dollar is slightly weaker rather than anything else. That's a dollar story. Let's look at gold, see if that's ticked higher. Sure enough, yeah, gold back at 2000. Happy days, lower yields there, weaker dollar. It would be interesting to see whether or not we're able to take out the peaks that we saw at the end of last month. That was 2007. And let's have a quick look at the Aussie. That's going to be interesting, especially with the RBA next week. Possibility that we might see a rate hike from the RBA next week. There has been some chatter about that. I still think that there's a little bit of an outlier, but we've got certainly a decent area of resistance through here at around about 69, sorry, 65, 20, 65.30. I need to get my eyes tested. My glasses aren't as good as they used to be. Okay, so let's see if we can retest those highs. Barely any movement on the Dax at all. Let's have a look at the NASDAQ and the S&P. And yep, certainly they want to go higher. But again, it's this series of peaks through here that I'll be particularly interested in to see whether or not we can actually push through those. And similarly for NASDAQ, let's have a look at the small caps, the Russell 2000. We've seen a big, big rebound in that this week. Let's just draw a line in on that. And certainly scope for all of these US markets to regain a little bit more upside over the course of the next few sessions. Okay, so any questions, ladies and gents, on anything that I haven't already covered? Because if not, let's actually have a quick look at what the Canada is doing now. Yeah, that's a decent report from Canada. So ties in with the weaker dollar and the move down to that trend line support there. Okay, so we looked at gold, we looked at Brent. As I say, this will be the penultimate play-rolls report of the year. So we'll probably have a much better idea of where we are in terms of market expectations of further rate hikes. But I think we're, as I said, I think we're done that payrolls report. Obviously, it's only one report. And we've got US CPI coming up in a couple of weeks time. But ultimately, I think, ultimately, I think that we're in the closing stretches and the markets will continue to price in further rate cut, price in the prospect of rate cuts. There's the US 10 year big drop here already on the back of those numbers. So 4.5% is the next key support level. See that there. But all in all, it's the old, it's the old favorite. Bad news is good news for stock markets. Right, just being asked a question. Our top trend line resistance on moving averages is the biggest barrier. For me, if you're looking at, if you're looking at indicators, for me, moving averages, it depends on the moving average you're using because a moving average by definition is a very flexible trend following indicator. Whereas support and resistance lines, horizontal ones are permanent. They're there. They're lines in the sand. You break above or below them. You'll usually find stop losses above or below them, which will trigger a move higher or lower. So I would always pay much more attention to breaks of support or resistance or trend line resistance as a barrier than I would on a moving average. For me, moving averages and oscillators like RSI and slow stochastics need to complement or confirm a moving average, sorry, start again. Moving averages and oscillators for me are secondary indicators and they need to confirm what the primary trend indicators are telling you. Primary trend indicators are highs and lows. So horizontal support and resistance lines or trend line resistance. So lines through lows, lines through highs. And if the moving averages confirm the primary trend breaks, then I would use them. But if they are contradictory, discard them. Because ultimately what they're doing is they're telling you to go against what is happening with respect to the price. And for me, the price is everything. It tells you everything that you need to know about the supply and demand dynamics going on in the market. And it'll also tell you the highs and lows where people are most likely to put stop losses and take profits. So you can deduce that if there's a significant number of lows, then if you're long, an awful lot of people will have their stop losses below those lows. And when that breaks, those losses will get triggered. On the flip side of that, if you're playing a trend from the short side, you're selling to a trend line resistance, but you'll put your stop loss above it. So if you get a break above it, you'll get those losses triggered and it should break higher. Obviously sometimes you get false breaks, a ball trap and you'll get whipped out. It does happen. It's happened to me on numerous occasions in the past and will probably continue to happen to me again in the future. But for me, the most important lines are support and resistance lines and tops and bottoms. Moving averages are secondary to that. No platform issues as far as I'm aware, Phil. Have you spoken to clients support about it? It might be worth having a chat with them. Check also the speed of your broadband. If you've got one of those speed checkers, it might be worth checking that out. They shouldn't be laggy. Mine certainly isn't. I've done plenty of these webinars and I think I can count on the figure. I think I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of times I've had a problem when I've been holding one of these webinars but certainly have a chat with them about it. But also check the speed of your broadband because one thing I will say, if you've got an awful lot of pricing windows open like I have and you haven't got a broadband connection or you're a long way from the router, sometimes it can struggle to cope. I've actually got a wired connection into the back of the laptop so mine is fine but sometimes it can happen. As I say, if you've got a cable, then it's fine. Arsenal Newcastle predictions. Home win for Arsenal. I think the last time we played them at the Emirates it was a goalless draw I think. But yeah, I'd like to think that we can take three points. It would be nice. Any other questions, ladies and gents? Okay, what's happening in the market now? Fed swaps pricing and pricing the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve in June next year. Now, obviously the Fed will push back on that. There's a whole number of Fed speakers due to speak I think at some point over the course of the next couple of days. So you could get a bit of pushback from people like Kashkari and what have you that could push yields back up. So be very aware that this move lowering yields is not likely to be a one-way move. The Fed won't want to see markets starting to price in rate cuts and you'll find that an awful lot of them will start coming out with their jaw boning and trying to push rates back up again. So that's certainly something I think that we all need to bear in mind. Anyway, unless anyone has any other questions, I'm sure you don't want to listen to me. I'm sure you want to go and do some more trading. But in the absence of any more questions, I will wish you all a very nice weekend. Hope you will stay dry and don't get too blown away and have a great weekend and hopefully speak to you all the same time, same place in just over a month's time. Thanks very much for listening and have you all have a great weekend. Thanks very much guys.