 Yn y cyfnod yw eich cyfnod, rydyn ni'n ddod i'w ddweud y panelodau a'r ysgolwyddiadau yw'r oedd yn cael ei gwybod i'r byw, a i ddweud y gweithio, yw'n ddweud y gweithio'r cyfnodau yn ddweud. Felly, rydyn ni'n gobeithio ar gyfer Patrick. Patrick yw'r ysgolwyr ym Mhwythuol, a'r ysgolwyr yn 1845, yn y Ffotsu 100 cyfnod, ar 19 miliwn cyfnodau 64,000 staff, ac yn y bwysig o'r ysgolwyr ar y EU. Y cyfnod ar Patrick yw yw yw, how do you think financial services businesses like all mutuals will be impacted if Britain votes to leave the European Union and does leave the EU within two years. Byrch yn mynd i Richard's comment, the FTSE 100 really doesn't represent the UK at all. We were emerging markets driven and as a consequence actually strangely enough on one measure which the sterling falling by 10 to 15% If that's how the Bank of England manages to control it. We would be a net beneficiary because we report in sterling. But we'd have the emerging markets boost. The reality, however, is we've been pulling back from Europe and restructuring over the last five years. Richard remembers it well and we are practically out of Europe, mainly Europe with all of our businesses. Having said that, we are now the third largest savings and wealth management business in the United Kingdom. We have billions of pounds of our customers' money invested via our vehicles. They are mainly invested in the SME sector in the UK, not in European stocks and not in the FTSE 100. That's how our Richard Buxton, for those of you who know him, comes from Schroters and he brought that philosophy and now runs all of our fund management side. So those billions of pounds invested in the small and medium sized enterprises in the UK, we believe that they will be seriously hit by the reduction in the value of sterling because the cost of doing business will rise significantly for them. They will not have the export opportunities that they will go uncompetitive almost overnight and that will have serious implications for people's savings. So quite a grim outlook. Having said that, I have to tell you the board of our subsidiary company, when I was asked to sign the Prime Minister's letter which I did but I signed it as Lloyd's not as old mutual, the board were afraid they'd upset the IFAs by saying that they were in favour of staying in. That's very interesting. On the microphone to you, Devinish's vision is to be world renowned for its creativity and integrity in the field of agri-technology. So you've got six manufacturing sites across the UK, Ireland and the US. What will the impact be on British manufacturing businesses if the result breaks it? The impact will be adverse, it will be a negative impact. One of the things to remember about manufacturing is that it fundamentally involves the movement of physical goods. That's just a standout distinctive feature of it. So when you listen to the debate, when you consider the issues, the movement of physical goods and again for manufacturing it's frequently forgotten. If you produce 100,000 tonnes of output, that involves moving in 100,000 tonnes of input. So you're actually dealing with 200,000 tonnes of physical goods moving in and moving out at that scale. That will become more difficult for difficult read expensive, read time consuming and time is money. One of the reasons I feel I can be so clear is that we deal with many markets around the world and we have hard won huge experience of what it takes to negotiate access, what it takes to get goods out of locations around the world. If I could just pick on one word which has come up several times and again as a practical person running a business, hone in on it. That's the word relationship. To me it's the biggest single factor I concentrate on in business that the relationships are right and if the relationships are right you can overcome most things. It might take some time which is an issue. If the relationships are not right and this seems to be forgotten by many of those campaigning for the UK to leave. It becomes impossible no matter what the rules say. Documents get lost, delayed, you go to the back of the queue and just to pick another word which is the word experience. I listened to a current serving UK minister last week campaigning for the UK to leave and one of his motivations he says is regulation. He wants less regulation. What does he propose in that debate will start from scratch. My reaction to that is horror. Who has time to start from scratch? It is just otherworldly to listen to this stuff and say this is stop the world we want to get off time in my opinion. That's the real world. Thank you. Richard, as it is apparent from the biography I read earlier you have a great deal of experience of operating inside the boardrooms of many of the leading companies in the world. The question I have for Richard is how well prepared do you think UK corporates are to deal with a Brexit possibility? I think it's very hard to prepare because the range of outcomes is so variable and I don't think many people have got in depth plans for what would happen in the event of leaving. When Michael Gove said a few weeks ago that the Brexit campaign was now determined that Britain would leave a single market I think that went further than most of us thought before. Of course the reason for that was intensely political that if you remain in the single market you have to pay. You have to make a contribution to the European coffers and the European Union and the two key themes of the European exit movement. That is you save your contribution and you can keep out people, its immigration. Those of you can save the money you can keep people out. Therefore saying that Britain might remain in the single market was compromising one of the two key legs of the campaign and I think that went a lot further than British business thought and is an act of absolute economic suicide. That has happened only in the last few weeks so people certainly won't have planned for that. What people will be doing there they will be holding back on investment. That is certainly very evident in the first quarter numbers and you saw earlier this week the land securities the largest REIT in the UK real estate investment trust. They took money off the table and went slightly liquid and sold out to some of their properties and they tend to be a London centric REIT, a massive organ. I think they got £13-14 billion of property assets and they got leverage in them. British business will have prepared, has prepared by being slightly conservative in its investment so British business is not ready for this event if it occurs. Thank you for that Richard. We'll move on from the specific to the more general part of the questions and I'll start again with Patrick. Patrick you outlined earlier that Britain's membership of the European Union has conferred significant benefits on British citizens over many years and done so in many ways. I suppose the concern is that there is a limited appetite within the British electorate to grapple and absorb the complexity of the arguments being made by the Remain campaign. What do you think is the most compelling message or the most compelling way of getting across the right message to influence the vote? I wish I knew the answer. The dinner talk party or rather dinner talk at parties in London at the moment paints a scene like the following. Hillary Clinton is indicted by the FBI for her email scandals. She's forced to step down from the race. Joe Biden is coopted. He loses to Trump. We lose the Brexit vote. Boris Johnson takes over. Marine Le Pen is in France and Angela Merkel loses the argument on the immigration issues and the only person that's happy in Europe is Putin. I am not sure where it goes but I would say this very. The only argument that seems to resonate with people is to harp back into Britain's history with Europe and Obama used it himself in his speech. I think if you look at the campaign of the Remain campaign and the way the Prime Minister is working this, it is to try and put fear into people's minds because it's the same thing that happened with the Scottish referendum. Fear that jobs would be lost etc etc. I think the great, the one that certainly from my perspective that I put whenever I'm in those dinner parties is the analysis and we'll all know it very well but Britain has had an army or England has had an army on the continent in the last 100 years in the last 1000. Think about that to keep the peace to beat the hell out of them to do whatever they did to them. We have them for 700 years but anyway. I think the answer is got to be that when it's all things are considered Europe has been so good for peace and investment and confidence in the future and how those arguments get across to people is I'm not too sure. It certainly isn't resonating at the moment. It is complex and maybe in the complexity is the difficulty of conveying some simple message that people can absorb. We want to you for a second question which is the Achilles heel of the lead campaign seems to be the inability to put any shape on what life post Brexit would look like and we've talked earlier and Brendan talked in detail about the kinds of options there are in terms of arrangements. Michael Gove as we know who's a key player in the lead campaign the Secretary of State for Justice in a recent unveiling of his vision for the UK's future outside the UK telling remark that Britain would have the same relationship with the European Union as Bosnia, Albania and Ukraine if the country votes for Brexit. And then as we know President Obama was in London a couple of weeks ago and I read a comment he made which I thought was interesting and says and on that matter for example I think it's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK US trade agreement but it's not going to happen anytime soon because our focus is on getting a negotiating with a big block like the European Union and getting a trade deal done and the UK is going to be at the back of the queue for that. So I want to question for you how do you think Britain will best preserve its relationship with the European Union and indeed the wider world from your perspective as a manufacturer in the United Kingdom. Well the I hope obvious answer to that is best expressed by a phrase that remain have used to some extent which is that Britain should lead not leave considering the alternatives why would you leave. And if I could make two comments which may just hover around that I think the EU actually and it might be in a minority thinking this I think it's a great story but great stories have to be told in a great way. You know you do need to tell people and one of my observations about this debate is the amount of people who are in favour of the UK remaining who almost for reasons of politeness seem to refuse to engage in the debate which astonishes me which is one of the reasons I'm here. And if I could give you a practical low level example I attended an event in Westminster recently which considered it run by the British Irish Chamber. The most significant moment in that debate was actually referred to earlier which was the Glastonary reference it was the first time I knew that 300,000 people who could vote who probably were younger were going to be in Glastonbury and probably wouldn't vote. And the guy who told me this had a solution he said I'm going to tell those people using a social media campaign how they can vote and be in Glastonbury and it's going to cost me £25,000 to do this and I'm going to ask 25 businesses for £1,000 each to fund that social media campaign. And I thought about it while I listened to the debate and I went back to him and I said I'll write the cheque for £25,000 to fund your campaign because I think it's a good idea. And I worry that by the time you collect the £25,000 from 25 businesses the election will be over. So I think I'm hugely concerned about this but I think it's all to play for and if you're fighting about something important you need to get out there and tell people what the issues are. It really isn't a complicated message. It's a simple message and it needs to be told simply and well and often by whatever means and methods are available. I mean it's a time in the world when methods of communication have never been as available to us. Obama turned the American election on its head by using unconventional methods to communicate a great message to a great number of people for a small amount of money. So that's why I wrote the cheque. I thought more of that. Just simple practical things for God's sake get out there and do it. Graf. Thank you for that. It's very interesting. A final question Richard for you with a political view. You mentioned some of the very disruptive political impacts that would arise if Britain leaves the union and the Guardian reporting on Obama's recent visit to London reported him as arguing that he'd heard a right to respond to the claims of Brexit campaigners that Britain would easily be able to negotiate a fresh trade deal with the US. And he said they are voicing an opinion about what the United States is going to do and I figured out you might want to hear from the president of the United States as to what I think the United States is going to do. And the question for you Richard is do you think it was appropriate for Obama to intervene in such a public way and ultimately when we look back on this do you think that will be a moment that we will see as one of great significance or one that mattered little. It was entirely appropriate that President Obama made those comments because he was responding to the Brexit campaign's assertion that they'd be in a better position to get a trade deal with the United States than the European Union. So he was correcting what was a gross misrepresentation of the United States policy. His remarks though have been received badly actually in the majority of places even though it strikes me as self-evident. Even the very sensible Mrs Pym thought that he shouldn't have said it which we're a little tiff about. But people have reacted badly, I think the British react badly to any external telling what to do. I mean there's that song isn't there. No rule Britannia Britain never ever shall be slaves you know anything that sort of alludes to that people run a mile. But I do think it is extremely valid that Irish people phone Irish friends and relatives as the minister said. I think private conversations. I mean what's the IEA logo at the bottom? I wrote it down sharing ideas shaping policy. I think you are in the citizens of Ireland are entirely entitled to share their ideas with British friends. So I don't want to anyway put that off but certainly President Obama standing in what's perceived as a pulpit preaching did not do well. I would though suggest the one bit of foreign influence that could really swing a really big vote in favour of remaining would be if the French president were to suggest that Britain should leave and France would be a better fishery. That might be a total order, maybe beyond the remit of this particular session. One final question and we'll open it to the floor. It's been evident in the last month or so that the Remain campaign has fired a lot of heavy artillery. So you have the IMF, you have Bill Clinton and Jeremy Corbyn coming out, Obama come to London, the Treasury with the economic impacts that were mentioned earlier. And last week's pretty outspoken view by the Bank of England which is pretty unprecedented to raise the spectre of what would happen. So the question for the panel is is that it or is this simply the beginning of the heavy bombardment that the British electorate will face over the next month. And the last month of heavy artillery is simply the softening up and now we're going to see a lot more. And do you think that the economic argument is ever going to capture the imagination of the British electorate? Because up to now all this artillery is economic or is something else needed to appeal to people who are working in Sheffield or Northampton and are struggling to put food on the table. So I'll open that to the panel if anyone occurs to dive in there. Richard, can I call in? So I think the question is what could happen in the remainder of the campaign. The problem in the Remain campaign is that Cameron oversold his fundamental renegotiation at the beginning. He didn't come back to Britain with that piece of paper which fundamentally changed the relationship of Britain with the European Union. Even though he did a superb job and got a lot more than most people thought he could come back with. It's really technical. I mean, when Brendan was going through all the stages of how the European Union works, people just glaze over in the general population. It's just far too complicated but Cameron did achieve a lot in those negotiations but he promised to Joe Public a fundamental renegotiation and no one believes he got it. So that plank of the campaign, the Remain campaign has gone. Now I do believe that most people are sensible at the end of the day and that what's in their wallet and purse will win. And Patrick, you referred to that complete mess up of the treasury estimate of the loss if Britain were to move outside the Union to family income. I think the more that is expressed the better and I would really focussed on that. But against this there is that very strong theme of anti-immigration and that isn't anything just to do with the European Union. That's just fundamental where we are in global politics. It's the Trump factor, it's the Mademoiselle Le Pen, it's the hugely right wing parties in Germany, Netherlands and Sweden that are emerging. It is a much more general theme that here is captured in leaving the European Union. And that is very difficult to fight against because it is a visceral feeling of people, against people arriving in their street who they don't know and they are unfamiliar with. It's that fear that my job might go to someone and it's just the globalization of trade. The fact is Britain has benefited hugely from immigration and indeed the country has been formed by waves of immigration, mainly from Europe. I always point out that this rather unusually shaped nose is the shows of the Roman occupation which ended in 411. I'm demonstrated by the appearance of some sort of Saxon origin. Britain's come from Europe. Somehow we see ourselves as separate and Patrick talked about the dinner party conversations of how Britain, its relationship with Europe has been putting armies onto the continent but then always withdrawing. So Britain has seen itself moving onto the continent, fixing stuff that's broken and then returning home into Fortress Britannia. And it hasn't grasped the benefit of being inside the European Union as the one people we all are. And I think that's very difficult to sell but I would really concentrate on the wallet and purse and President Alon. So what they're doing is what the Remain campaign has planned. It's to Alon's point. Business has got to get behind this. Airbus for obvious reasons came out about a month ago, wrote to all their staff and said, you know, our view is your jobs are at risk if Britain is out. You can see that in Bristol. They would lose the wing production for the Airbus and we have to do it. I spoke to the CEO of our wealth business yesterday and I said to him, I'm going to be asked to sign another Prime Minister's letter. They want 60 chairman of FTSE 100 companies to do it. I said, what do you think? He said, well, I'm in favour of it but you'll have to persuade the board. I said, well just tell the board we're doing it. I think we have to, business has to come out and there will be the fear factor. And just to say all politics is local, just to take the point, I'm writing to all my staff next week, laying out the argument in simple straight forward terms. People tell me I shouldn't do it. I'm doing it. I'm encouraging my suppliers to do it. Companies in my sector to do it. And then on a wider note, I take the point made earlier, turnout is really important. So you tell people that and I think you use every one of those 35 days at every level. This is now, the way I see the 35 days, it's now become a home game. And the home game will be won or lost by the home team. And they need to get out in the pitch and play as if their lives depend on it. And there's a thing out there called the silent majority and I actually believe in the silent majority and I believe they're the majority and I believe they're very silent. But like previous speakers, I believe they're far from fools and if the argument is put out properly and well, I think the silent majority will prevail on this one. So it's up to us. Thank you very much. So it's now time to open the floor to questions. So I'll start with this man here who's got his hand up straight away. Ronan Tynan. I'm currently based in London at the moment co-founder of Esperanza Productions and a filmmaker and I'm absolutely thrilled to inform you all. I do have a vote in this referendum. I'm registered to vote. And after listening to Brendan's chilling but masterful lecture, I can assure you I'll be doing so with immense enthusiasm and pleasure. But the word question I really want to ask the panel because I was at a meeting in Chatham House on Monday night when Grayling, the leader of the House of Commons and member of the cabinet said that after Brexit, when Britain leaves the European Union, nothing will change or need change in relation to the single market. Talking as if the United Kingdom was the United States, it's a major superpower, totally detached from reality. Well, naturally enough, I lept to my feet and pointed out to him when I got a chance because it was a packed meeting, I can tell you, and pointed out that that's not going to be the situation in Ireland because of the border between north and south. And we have moved from a militarized border to no border in the space of a generation. Now, obviously the Irish and British governments in advancing the peace process paid a huge part in that. But obviously the European Union, as we're all aware, facilitated that because we have the same system effectively both sides economically for that reason. But the question I want to ask is I'm virtually hoarse talking to friends, relations and everybody I know in Britain about the need to face up to the risks involved. I have to say, why is business so reticent? I cannot understand that because of the interests. And I commend Owen Brennan for his quick initiative because he is absolutely right. If he had not acted, that initiative would not have happened. The reticence, I just cannot understand it because the point was well made by Richard Pym that obviously people are affected by their own interests. Because I saw an interview on BBC the other night where one couple who clearly were taking a vote for Brexit after an announcement about the effect on house prices, they said, well of course we will have to think about that when people are confronted by the reality. But who best to confront them with that reality, the business, and I still cannot understand that reticence. Even amongst the city of London, as the points were well made, if you're not at the table you're on the menu. 80% of EU foreign exchange business, 85% of hedge fund assets, half the fund management business, 10% of the UK economy and 11% of tax revenue. I had to learn that off because I have regular arguments with people in the city by the way. Some of them bleed a lot are actually favour of Brexit. So just that question, please explain to me if you can why business is so reticent. Thank you very much. Thank you. Any takers on the reticence, which I think is apparent of some business, Ryanair is obviously quite a different example and has come out very strongly in favour of campaigning. But Richard, would you like to? I think it's very simple that businesses don't like to alienate their customers and if 50% of your customers are for Brexit you don't want to take a political stance. And you know that let's just say it's a major food retailer, 50% of the people coming through your doors are for Brexit. Why would you say we as a firm are to remain? And also if people do come out then they are rounded on by the leave campaign, they are outed. So the tar and the bad stuff are applied to them and there are adverse business implications immediately. People try to send messages to their staff but normally those then appear in a newspaper and the black stuff gets applied to them again. So I can do it because I'm in Ireland. I'd find it very difficult to be quite so public if it was a British firm as Patrick has found with his own board. I think when you look at the development of the reasons we are where we are, it's a self-inflicted wound. Remember that Cameron put it in the manifesto, never expecting to be the majority government. So he thought it would die and it was a way of controlling his own right wing and the UKIP group. However he's now hoisted with his own petard and people are saying well you got us here, you get us out. Lorcan Blake is my name, Chairman. I want to give an honest view on this. I think the debate so far is too much at a high level, big ticket level. It's chief executives speaking to chief executives but the big voters on the ground with the ordinary working class people. I think that for this debate to be won it has to be brought down to that level as Richard mentioned there about what's left in the pocket or what's taken from the pocket. Like the people who are putting up the case to leave in Northern Ireland for example will get 6 billion back and will give you 3 billion more on what you've got there. We've got to take the debate down to that level so that the man on the street knows what's coming and what's not coming. Around say employment law, around equality law and what's in the pocket and that's not coming through. Thank you. Lady here in the fourth row from the back. Thank you very much. Rwyna Dwarf from the Irish Farmers Association. My question bizarrely enough isn't going to be about agriculture because I think it is so self-evident for our sector. There's a negative impact from a potential Brexit on trade, unemployment, on income, on animal health issues. We are so strongly, our strong belief in terms of the negative outcome. My question actually gentlemen you were asking about what will have an impact and so happens last week. I got to catch Harriet Harman's intervention in relation to the role the EU has had on women's rights in the workplace. I thought she was brilliant I have to say and I just wanted to know was there a feeling that that intervention had had an impact and could more along those lines be what might persuade people of the benefits of staying within the European Union. Thank you. Thank you. I think the answer to that is yes. I have watched and participated in quite a lot of debates. I agree with the previous speaker in terms of you know in a way in these sort of discussions you end up talking to yourself. You need to get out there and talk to the people who are actually going to make this happen one way or the other. So a huge issue is getting people out to vote and they'll do that if they see it as being important in their interest and in their children's interest and they need to be told. So every debate I've seen of that level where the facts have been spun out I think is affecting that silent majority. It's just a point of view I have. You know we'll find out on the 23rd of June. But I have seen the sort of changes you're describing when the facts have been put out and an interesting thing I observe. When the leave side are engaged with in general I have found them to become their own worst enemies. I attended the debate for example in Oxford Phil Hogan own Patterson. Phil Hogan showed his caliber in that debate by letting own Patterson in my opinion do a lot of talking. And the more talking he did the worst case he made for the EU to leave. Now I was surrounded by people who want to leave and there weren't exactly telling me at lunch that this had changed their mind. But you could see it in their body language that they had been adversely affected by what they'd seen on Patterson do. They're making bad arguments and the more they're engaged with the more that's drawn out. Thank you. We'll take a few more questions. I'm conscious that we are slightly running over our schedule so I have people waving at me frantically but we'll finish soon enough. But this gentleman here and we'll take one or two more questions. Thanks very much Chairman Blair Horne a member of the Institute. I mean I agree that Brexit is a real possibility but I'm still not inclined to rule out the remain side. There's a conundrum in the Treasury report that I think could be important in relation to tariff policy on food prices. Brandon Halligan earlier mentioned Rhys Mogh's article in the Financial Times this week about the divisions in the Conservative Party. The divisions were over tariff policy lost in the 1906 election the 1923 election essentially over food prices and food prices was a big factor as well in the 1975 election. Britain did not do the green pound of evaluations that we did for that very reason. Now if the Brexiters talk about trading on WTO rules which they seem to accept now well that means that unless Britain unilaterally rules out tariffs on food which case it has to give the same unilateral tariff to every other country. Well then you're talking about massive tariffs on food being imported into Britain 36% on dairy products up to 70% on beef 15% on fruit and vegetables. So in the medium term there's going to be a huge increase in food prices until eventually it can negotiate free trade deals with other countries. I think that will feature in the election before in the referendum campaign in the near future and I just like if it does can that be a factor for the very main side. And I'll tell you what the Brexit response to that because I've heard that argument put and their responses that the European Union is an agricultural cartel designed to protect French farmers. There are cheaper there's cheaper food available on the. This is not me by the way and it's not me. Believe me that there is cheaper food available on the world market and that by going to the WTO tariffs we are able to access cheaper food in the rest of the world. Sounds compelling. In the long term but not the medium term. I'm not here to expand on it. A couple of questions maybe from this side. There's a gentleman here first and then we'll take the woman beside him. Thanks very much and Keith Stevens from Accenture and the financial services practice. One question I have or suppose one feeling I have is complete deja vu. Seven years ago we had the Lisbon Lisbon one and I attended conferences like this and my question is how likely to the panel is a second referendum here. It's not true Brendan's speech or Brendan's talking was very very good but the sense that I get here is that the leaveside are setting the agenda and that is exactly what happened in Ireland. And it's only it's only when the remainside set the agenda that we will start to win because there's an old phrase and it's very very relevant that when you're explaining you're losing. And what I see here is that we as business people are explaining like we had Boris Johnson during the week making an absolute outlandish claim. What was the reasoning behind it to me was to take the debate away from the economic agenda and the closer the remainside can state talking about economics food prices house prices things that affect the money in your pocket. That's what wins elections. We're not trying to. This is a business problem but it's a political solution. And in order to win this we have to be as enthused as any team is out there that wins because at the minute it seems to me that the fight and like the real and let's say the fight and the dog was greater within the leaveside at the moment rather than the remain. So that's the common but the question is how likely do we see the possibility of a second referendum. Thanks for your time. Thank you. Well the simple answer is most observers would say highly unlikely and the reason refers back to Brendan's point. Nobody knows what happens once we vote to go on the 24th of June and who will be running the country. So nobody's willing to stand up there and say except the Prime Minister obviously he says we're going to stay and therefore this is it. And when the Conservative Party is not going to open itself up again British politics is in disarray. The Labour Party is completely dead in the water. The SNP thankfully are for staying but they're a force in Westminster. You'll have seen them if you watch the Queen's speech yesterday they have more say now than the Labour Party and yet they are not a force south of the border. In terms of people's how people vote. So it is extraordinary difficult to call. I think we take a final question from this person here. Hi. Jeane Hoey from BT. My question is really about the devolved regions just your views on a potential second independence referendum in Scotland. Should the UK vote to leave and Scotland vote to remain? Well in the recent local elections in the United Kingdom the Scottish Nationalists lost their majority in the Scottish Parliament. And they seem to be stepping back from a second referendum because they might not win it. I think it will be determined solely by the vote on the day that if Scotland votes hugely to remain in the EU and England votes to leave that could resuscitate it. Just arithmetically. But at the moment it seems to have gone down the Scottish National Party priority. That's my reading of the situation. I'm conscious that we have overstayed our welcome. I'd like to conclude by just mentioning the bookmaker odds and I'm a close follower of Paddy Power. It was four to one against Britain would leave the European Union in January. 11 to four and hasn't moved much in the last while but it's an unbackable four to one on to remain and now I think someone said the book has got it wrong last year too. But the polls we're seeing are really hard to tell which way it's going to go. I would like to thank the panel. I think we've had a very interesting presentation with a very interesting Q&A and put a lot of effort into thinking about what might be said. And I think their experience came to bear today and thank you all for listening and appreciate the question. So thank you very much indeed.