 Welcome traders to this week's live market analysis and trading analysis session with me, Patrick Munn and we're going to get started here in just 30 seconds. Okay, that is 1 p.m. British summertime. Before we get going, I always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer and most pertinent to today's presentation views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They are not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. And just before we get going here, if you can hear me and you can see my screen, could you just type a Y in the chat box so I know we are good to go. Testing audio 1, 2, 3. Testing audio 1, 2, 3. If you can type a Y in the chat box, if you can hear me and you can see the screen. Excellent. Thanks very much. Okay. So for those of you who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. Like I said, my name is Patrick Munn-Leonato. I graduated from university. I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. I essentially had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately at that stage, day gambling. After some early beginner's luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck went out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my capital. Say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was reasonable for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years was a time during which I not just my technical gain in terms of researching, developing and extensively backing forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental gain. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading, being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcomes of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades. So I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profit-growing returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a management account service, again delivering annual positive returns. And I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I am a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market output, breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos, which I'll share through the tick mill trading view accounts. And I'll put the link for that account into the chat for those of you who want to follow along with those daily trade setups. I also run tick mills rapidly growing E-mini-strategy group, where I post a daily trade plan outlining my pre-market strategy for the cash trading session in New York for the S&P 500 or the E-mini S&P 500 futures. I give my bias for the trading day ahead and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 4,000 points of profit since we launched the group over a year ago. Second tick mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The tick mill futures trading telegram group is a real-time environment. On a daily basis, I share in-depth insights, analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash session, where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping you to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and, most importantly, the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. That gives you a flavour of where it is I'm coming from. Let's jump into today's charts. Before I do, I'm just going to post the link for the futures group there, the Facebook group, you just request access and you'll get access to my daily trade plan for the S&P 500. Okay, so to the charts. Before I get going here, I've got a bunch of charts that I want to look through and give my view on. If I don't cover a chart that you would like me to take a look at, if you post that into the chat, then at the end of the session, I'll pull that up and give you a view on the charts. Also, if you have any other questions, just drop those into the chat box. Again, at the end of the session, I'll come back to them and cover them all off in a brief Q&A once I finish my presentation. Let's start with the S&P 500 using the e-mini futures contract. We broke down through Trendchannel's support after that horrific CPI print and we have we've basically traded into the resistance zone. I highlighted this level on Monday through the Tickmill Trading Bureau account, looking at this 3930 to 3940 area. This prior, basically trendline support to Actors Resistance, which it did. We saw a pretty decent sell-off yesterday from that similar level. 3925 was the high yesterday. We are now down into the Trendchannel support here. Obviously, the sell-off yesterday prompted by a pretty hawkish read from the markets in terms of the FOMC raised by another 75 basis points. I think the market was most spooked by the idea that Powell is really sticking to his guns now and is prepared for Main Street, so to speak, as opposed to Wall Street, to take some pain in terms of a potential recession. It doesn't appear at this stage that he's going to back down and so the market took a pretty glum read on that and we saw a decent sell-off. What I'm watching today is potential support zone here, interim support. I'm not suggesting this is going to be the low of the move, but I think we could see some support into this 3720 here. We have this low volume node, weekly projected range support, so 3710, 3720 is going to be a key area. I'll be watching today on the intraday charts, but I think we could see a bounce and certainly think about a move back up into this 3830 area. Ultimately, whilst we hold below this trend line, this is the weekly trend line support back from the March pandemic lows, whilst we hold below there, I think the due lows are certainly vulnerable, but I would anticipate that we would at least see a tradeable bounce from that 3720, 3710 area. At this stage, until we can reclaim 3950 on the upside, it's very difficult to get constructive for further upsides at the moment. Moving to the NASDAQ, so similar setup here, I've got an equality objective versus this swing structure here. From that swing high at 12970, we have a downside target here of 11,200, and that would basically take us back into those due lows. From there, I think we can see a bounce, certainly we can think about this high volume load getting retested from below, just below the 12,000 level, and above there, we have the trend channel resistance. Again, similar to the S&P scenario at this stage, unless we can reclaim 12,200 on a closing basis, I think pressure remains to the downside, and we could actually be looking at a breach of the due lows. If we do the downside target that I'm going to pay very close attention to is the 10,540 to 10,340, one is the 131 extension of this swing high from the 15,285. We also have the 61.8% retracement of the post pandemic advance, and that would be an interesting area to watch. Again, not necessarily talking about the low for this move, but certainly I think we could see a pretty decent bounce from that area, so I'll be paying close attention to 20 move into that support zone. Dow Jones, so the Dow has actually taken out now the weekly trend line support on a closing basis. So it's going to be important to pay attention to the weekly close on the Dow, because if we close below that trend line support, I think we can be thinking about any bounces after that as opportunities to fade looking then for the downside equality objective versus the swing structure here, 34,300. For those of you here for the first time, let me just tell you what I mean by equality. So when I'm talking about equality, I'm talking about the length of this swing from the swing high projected forward to give us a potential swing low. So that's what I mean. Anytime I'm referring to equality objectives on any time frame, that's what I'm talking about. Now, interestingly, this equality objective, the 27,119 is just below the 50% retracement, 27,498. So when we get these retracement and extension confluences, they're often interesting areas to pay attention to for responses from price actions. So that's the downside objective. If we get a weekly close at or below current levels, I think any bounces are there to be sold. And we are going to move down into this 27,000 area. Russell has sitting just at its weekly equality objective, sorry, the weekly trend line support, just above it at the moment, I'm looking for a break here now to give us a target down into 15,779, which is the equality objective versus this one structure here. And if we pull up the fib retrosome tool, let's see if we've got any confluence there. So just below we have the 61.8% retracement of our pandemic move. So initially, what I'm looking at for the Russell is I would anticipate we have an equality objective here on the daily timeframe within this channel gives us 16,74. I'd be looking then for any bounces back into trend channel resistance as an opportunity to fade. And then we're targeting and move down to that 15,79. So any bounces from the 16,74 back into trend channel resistance, 1780s, we watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side, and we will be targeting them that move down into the 15,79 area below. DAX, DAX also sitting close or sitting on a ledge basically here. As I talked last week, any close for me through this 12,380 area, I'm going to be looking to get short the DAX, targeting and move down to 11,150, which is the equality objective versus this bigger swing structure here. And we also have that 61.8% retracement and the yearly S3 just below. So paying close attention to any break of that support area, let's just lower this line here. And your break of that support area, what I've been watching for is that first move and that first pullback into that prior support zone to act as resistance. So we get that extension to the downside in terms of the DAX. All right, let's take a look at the dollar. This is a trade I've got on as of this morning, sold the dollar index at 111.50s and shared that with the guys in the trading room this morning. So that's running about 100 points of profit at the moment. This is the only trade I've actually got on in the book right now. So I'm looking for us to extend to the downside here, initially targeting and move into the weekly projected range support. That comes in 109. And then from there, I'd be anticipating the potential for a bounce. And on the intraday timeframe, I'll be looking on the hourly, the four-hour chart for a three-wave corrected move back into this 110.70s. And from there, I'm looking for a price to roll over and looking to the main target for this move anyway to start with is going to be this 106.60s. So this morning, we're 50 points on the upside of 50 picks. And the potential trade could see a 500 point move to the downside. So 10 to 1 play here if it plays out as I anticipate. And this setup, really a couple of things have driven this. Firstly, we're going to talk about this in a minute. The BOJ obviously intervened in the markets today. And we'll talk about the effectiveness of that move. But more importantly to me, it's that idea of buy the rumor, sell the fact scenario plays out over and over again in the markets where the markets anticipate like we had. There was a high level of anticipation regarding a 75 basis point move or even 100 basis point move by the FOMC. And so the market ran the dollar up into that. And then we trade into this resistance area that I talked about the 111.50s, 111.80s. And we've seen a nice reaction from there. Most importantly, as I talk about this every week in terms of fading these trend moves, got to have this, got to have momentum divergence. For me, that's the critical component to fading trends. Because what's that telling you? Well, it's telling you that the rate of change, so the rate of increase in price is slowing meaningfully. So that means it's taking more energy within the market to achieve higher prices than it was in prior phases of the trends. And that's the first sign or the first component or constituent of the opportunity to fade trend moves. Otherwise, you'll always want to be trading ideally with the trend. But in terms of if you are thinking about fading the move and you have a target area that's predefined for you guys that are here a week in week out, you'll know, be watching this level. Firstly, it was the 110.30, which I traded, took some profits out of that. And then we looked for that 111.50 this week, and that trade is underway at the moment. Gold. This is what I'm watching tonight. Certainly, this is to my mind is potentially very interesting trade. So what are we looking at? Well, we have this major swing structure thinking in terms of the quality objective again. So this swing here equal to that swing from this swing high gives us 1663. Now, to my mind, there's no coincidence that we have traded that level to the tick. We traded it last week and we saw profit taking on the first move. We've retested it now, and we're seeing a nice reaction on the daily timeframe here. We also had an internal swing structure. So from this swing high into this swing low from that swing high, that also gave us 1670 as a target area. So I talked about this area last week, and we're now starting to see some developing demand come into the market. And importantly, what we have is this momentum divergence. So again, that's the key component. And now it's starting to be backed up by the price action. So a decent reaction yesterday, obviously a bit whippy because of the FOMC. But today, if we get a closed, bullish close back up towards the highs there, so into that 1690 area, coming into the session tomorrow morning, the London session, you can be looking at on the hourly charts, look for an overnight pullback, and then look for that breakthrough as we head into London or the New York session tomorrow. So this is a trade I'm really mindful of and watching, especially if we can keep that pressure on the dollar. So dollar weakness should see this gold trade potentially develop. So I'm going to be looking to make a break of that pivot. So through 1700, that sets up for tomorrow. I'm going to be long gold and my first target on the upside is going to be back into this high volume mode 1805 and range resistance just above 1820. Copper is another one I'm watching here. Obviously it's being through a phase of significant weakness driven by lack of demand, obviously, but we're starting to see the potential here for a corrective move. So we're sitting at this trend line support. So if we can close at or above current levels, I'm going to be looking for a break of the pivot there through 3.5465. And what's my first objective going to be? Well, it's going to be the equality objective. So I've marked on here ABC equal legs, which will take us back into the daily trend line from the highs. So we're looking then for a test of 3.9975 in terms of copper. Let's check in with the Bitcoin here. Still seeing weakness as most of you will know who are here on a weekly basis. I'm not going to be doing anything until we test this 12, 12185, which is this big equality objective ABC pattern. It's complete. And we are bouncing a little bit here, but let's just see what we have. So we have this trend channel at the moment. Obviously we broke down through that prior support area. We're looking for this trend channel to be maintained. So look for resistance into 21,500 and again, watching for shorting opportunities to the downside in terms of Bitcoin. 10-year notes. So obviously interest rate sensitive products. We are looking for a five wave sequence to complete into the 127 extension of this last corrective wave. Now, obviously those who are Elliott Wave enthusiasts, you can see a three wave corrective move here. This wave is impulsive. So what we don't be anticipating here is that once we test that 127 extension, if we can maintain some momentum divergence here, then we look for a three wave corrective move, which ideally would take us back into this high volume area, 119. And if we look at the 10-year yield, so obviously yield moves inversely to price. And what we're looking at here is the 127 extension. Let's draw this in. So our last corrective phase. We're trading just below. So let me just remove that and give you this. So we're going to say that wave one, two, we're looking for a three. Ideally, we retest whole these prior highs and then get a fifth wave extension up into 3.76. And then from there, we'll be looking for another corrective move to develop ideally in three waves back into the apex here at just about 3%. That's what we're watching there. Let's take a look at the dollar yen. So we have a BOJ selling dollars this morning to support the yen. And this weekly close here, let me just get rid of all these drawings for now. Watch this weekly candle because if we can get it closed at or below current levels, and I think this sets up for an opportunity next week to sell the first corrective phase on an intraday time frame. Let's just pull up an hourly chart here and I'll show you what I'm talking about. I'm referencing that. Let's reset this. So what we'd be looking for ideally is a strong, an impulse move down. And we then look for a three wave corrective move. And then we'd be looking to sell that for at least an equality objective to the downside. So when I talk about those retracements heading into next week, if we can finish on the week side, we're looking for that three wave corrective move against this weekly close. So we've got some nice tails there, three of them for 142.87. As long as we don't get the close above there, then next week, I think there's going to be a decent opportunity to sell this yen, sell the dollar yen. Sorry. And what we'd be looking at will be a three wave move that takes us back down into the 135, 134.50 area before we once again try to rally. But that's going to be a trade for me heading into next week in Euro, moving inversely, obviously to the dollar. It was looking pretty bullish this morning, but we're sorry, we're all over a bit here. The area I'm paying most attention to, and I've talked about this relentlessly, is this 97-60 area. If we can get a test in there, the bullish reversal pattern may attain momentum divergence. And I think there's an opportunity to play accounts trend rally in terms of the Euro. Today, if we can get a close back above 99.70, so bullish outside reversal pattern, then again tomorrow I'd be looking at an opportunity on the long side in terms of the Euro, and that dollar index play obviously would work well with that. Sterling, we have tested that 112.50 target, we're finding some buyers at the moment. I need to see a close back through 113.90 to look tomorrow morning on the intraday timeframes for a long trade to basically take out this wedge three-way corrective move. I think we can trade back to the 117.30s around out here with the Antipodeans. So we have tested that the 66.40, that's the long-awaited equality objective, trying to put in a reversal here on the daily timeframe. I don't want to see a close back up through 66.90 to get interested tomorrow morning on the intraday timeframe, looking for a long position. And we think about testing to the high volume mode and the trend line resistance at the 69.30s. Let's take a look at the key, this is the other one that was of interest to me. So we're testing this trend channel support, we've got some nice momentum divergence. So when you close back through the 59 level today would, to my mind, be an opportunity on the long side to play a counter trend rally. And certainly the thing about retesting this weekly trend line support then to act as resistance 61.20s. So we're looking out here, let's take a look at Euro Yen. What's your only test here into the trend line support? Two ways of playing this. So we have a test and reverse or we break and if we do then the first target on the downside is going to be a move to 133.40s. And then this is a pattern that I really like. So if we get in here the small bounce and then break, we get down to here. And then we get a three way corrective move that puts us back into this 39, 140 area. I'd be looking at a fade there and I think we can trade down 125 on the downside in terms of the Euro Yen, a big weekly trend line support coming in 130. So there's an opportunity developing in the Euro Yen. If we take out this trend line that's why I flagged that to highlight that today. Okay, so that's the whistle stop tour this week of the charts that I'm watching. I think there's a bunch of opportunity developing here. What a couple of things to be mindful of as we head into the back end of September now and thinking about October. September is notoriously a seasonally weak period for risk assets, so the equity indexes, etc. But as we head into October that seasonality starts to shift and importantly what you want to remember is that we are then heading into a period where focus is going to start to shift from central banks, so to speak, we've had nine central banks this week, we've seen some big rate rises of often can be a pivotal period, but we are then starting to shift focus to the US and most importantly the midterm elections. And as I've stated before, you can see some surprises in terms of data and focus in the markets as we head into those elections as the incumbent party seeks to retain control. So just a sentiment factor to bear in mind as we head out of September and into October and into those midterm elections. Okay, so are there any questions? If you have a chart you want me to take a look at, I haven't covered, just post that into the chat or any other question you may have. There aren't any questions. I'm going to take that as I've done a reasonable job of explaining my views of the markets for this week and I'm going to wrap the session up. I've posted the links in there for the trading view to follow along with those daily trade setups and you can just request access to the futures group to get my daily trade plan for the S&P 500 or the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. Okay guys, I'm going to wrap this session up here. As always, traders plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly, manage all the risks. Until next week, thanks very much.