 Welcome once again to the breakfast on Plus TV Africa. Our first major conversation this morning is going to be talking about zoning and you know why this is important as we move steps closer to the 2023 general elections. Political parties have started to of course position themselves, listening very closely to what the people are saying and also listening to advice from analysts on what must be done in order to win in the elections in 2023. Earlier today we also spoke about the national chairmanship of the PDP very likely being zoned to the north and what that means with whoever it is that they choose as their candidate for 2023. But these are all just steps with regards who exactly will be taking you know the mantle for 2023 on different political parties. This morning we're speaking with a policy risk management expert Mr. Oshino Ibrahim to share his thoughts concerning zoning. Mr. Ibrahim, good morning. Thanks for joining us and thanks for your time as always. Thank you for having me. My pleasure. Alright so now let's start with you know the controversy concerning zoning. If you notice you know the conversation changes every now and then you know in different regions. There are times when people say you know political groups would say or forums rather would say oh yes we support zoning it should come to this part of the country next. And then couple of years later they have a rethink and say oh no it's not constitutional. So let me first of all get your thoughts on the idea of zoning. Do you think that that is how Nigerians should you know run the electoral process. Thank you very much for having me once again. I have been monitoring the zoning you know pandemic that is what we're going to call it because everybody's affected with the zoning issue right now. But zoning in political space is not an issue. It's even constitutional going by the federal character going by you know the rights guaranteed by the Constitution for you know every Nigerian who is born on the soil to be eligible to contest for the office of the president or whatever offices he or she so desire. The zoning is normal. It's you know it brings cohesion. It brings you know unity. It brings you know it brings harmony and let's be specific about the Nigerian politics. The zoning is normal. Zoning is great. Look at the constitution of both parties. The constitutions of both parties are friendly and tailored towards fairness equity and justice. The zoning in Nigeria is even constitutionally friendly. So every country has their own political you know thing with it. They have their own political you know landings. Not to say. So zoning for me is good. Some constitution agrees and have a sexual testing the zoning of a rotational presidency or the governorship or whatever they feel that political presidency is demanded. So zoning for me is legitimate. Even in Nigerian constitution. Of course zoning is indirectly or directly going by the federal character principle is constitutional. Well the explanation if it's going to be tested in cost. Sadly the narrative concerning it's been constitutional or not is different from Northern Governors Forum because they say it's unconstitutional you know simply because you know it should be the right of every Nigerian to contest for any political seats across the country. But you're saying it is constitutional for the same reason. You know all these politics of you know we have a numerical strength. All these politics of you know we are bigger than the others. This would not bring you know this will definitely bring you know the salmon in the country is going to bring a lot of chaos in the country. You know and I've listened very carefully to some of the governors. Some of their personal thoughts about they are you know the Northern Governors Forum and the rest of them. Though I don't want to make comments about the gentleman Barbara comments. I don't want to make. I don't want to make any comment on him because I don't want to even polish him or promote him. He is not. He's just a retired power secretary or probably a director. So when governor speaks you know he doesn't have any right to speak and I'm glad that some of the southern government does not respond to him. Who the hell is he? What is he talking about? But I'm glad that some of our calls on other programs like yours on TVC and the rest of them calling on the Northern Governors Forum to speak and I'm glad they did. Now let's go to their issue. If you listen to some of their communique they are saying that the southern governors should not mandate them and I agree with them. The use of must must be removed. And I'm calling of Governor K. Dulu. I'm calling of Governor Cal Defy me to place work on the communique, the language and the test of their communique to the country. Politics is about negotiation. It's about give and take. It's about mobilization. It's about dialogue. You know, use of must or shall come to the south doesn't work. For me personally it doesn't work. Of course I want the presidency to come to the south and I'm going to work for it to come to the south so that there has to be a balance. Presidents, it's excellent to President Muhammad Bari who finished his channel in the next two years. Then it should move to the southern part of the country. After our channel or eight years in office, so be it, then it will go back to the north. Now, what I think the northern governor forum, they are saying is that there should not be a mandate. There has to be. Of course, look at what Martin Luther King said, you can't govern me without my consent. If you want to govern anybody, you have to go out, you have to campaign, you have to speak to the north. I expect the southern governor forum to speak politely to the northern governor forum. You know, that is ideal. Listen to what my dear brother, brother Faisa said. He said the issue the northern governors are having with the southern governors is the language, the texts, the texts of the world. You know, I'm not doubting that if PDP zones their own presidency to the north, the lights of article, even without showing it to the north, the lights of article will speak. Look at my dear friend, show me. Of course, all the full soldiers of article, they have already mobilizing that, with or without their zoning committee recommendations, article is going to run. So it's possible that we're going to have another candidate from the north. It's possible that a candidate will go to a man from the north, either in PDP or any other party. But hopefully, I'm sure you're going to call me back. The candidate that we're a man from PDP is going to come from the north. I cannot show you. So this discussion at the end of the day is a game of number. So I will call on the southern governor to mobilize the majority of the northern governors. Majority, you can't capture them all. Some of the governors, like governor Burunu, governor of jobs, play two states, and the rest of them are supporting, including Nassarra, supporting the southern candidates. Some of them are speaking up. But what we need is just the strength of them. We don't need all of them because some of them will still, you know, some of the PDP governors who are among the northern governors will. Definitely, definitely support the northern, indirectly support the northern candidates. So the game ahead is still far, far fresh. So everybody should get ready. It's one or two, three months. We'll see what's going to happen after the convention of PDP. It's pretty interesting to see, you know, and, you know, it now almost sounds like the most important factor is the support of governors and the forums instead of the electorate and who they really want to, you know, take over the mantle of leadership in 2023. I want you to, you know, speak with regards where you see the political parties leaning towards and the reason they might be leaning in that direction. Do you think that there might be fears of presenting a northern candidate in 2023? Do you think that the political parties might want to, you know, move away from that mostly because of, you know, the last couple of years in Nigeria? You know, I'm a member of the British Institute of Risk Management and, you know, policy strategies. And we are mentioning the risk analysis or baggage of issues candidates that might possibly emerge. Let me just, let me take it from the first question you have, that the process of, you know, leadership in our country starts from the political party. We are still talking about the party structure right now. The electorate are not involved. Yeah. Okay. The process of conversion, setting up the party machinery, conversion and nomination of the presidential candidates, that after sorting out issues politically, issues parties are, you know, sorting themselves out and get providing and producing a candidate, then the electorate can come in. And who are the electorate? Most of them are also a party member, but most of them are not. Now, if you look at the detachment of, you know, you know, people who are not in politics, maybe from private sector, ordinary citizens, they are saying that either you bring from the north or south, they want the best candidates. Like the former enemy of Kanosai recently, that are the candidates. So, you know, we seem to have lost feed from you, but of course we'll try to reconnect and get the conversation going. We're mostly speaking about zoning and how important it is, you know, as we take, you know, further steps towards 2023 and the general elections come in, you know, in 2023. These important conversations, mostly because, you know, a lot of these, most of the political parties, the two major political parties really, you know, will need to make decisions that will give them a fighting chance in 2023. Another thing that I'm very sure I will bring up, you know, is the argument concerning zoning and competence and who, you know, what do you think should be more important? Is it the region where the candidate comes from or competence, you know, and maybe that's where the electorate would also come into the picture. I've had numerous conversations concerning this, you know, and next Nigerians, what really is more important to you? Is it the region the candidate comes from or the competence of that candidate? Yes, there's arguments that, yes, you know, every region in the country has, you know, persons, you know, of very, very high competence level that will be able to stare the Nigerianship properly. And so it doesn't matter where they're from or, you know, it doesn't matter, you know, what region they're from. There's definitely enough competent hands in every region. But what is the Nigerian electorate feeling like? And what is the mindset of the Nigerian electorate in the next couple of years, seeing the way things have turned out in Nigeria? Mr. Ashina, can you hear us now? Yes, I can. Welcome back. Can we go ahead? And then we can talk about competence vis-a-vis zoning. So we are right now at the stage of, you know, the party, you know, affairs. The party affairs takes, you know, from getting your world congress to state congress, then going to the convention, nominations to the convention, then the convention that will nominate, you know, the presidency or the president of each party. So we are still at that process. What is happening right now is just a party affairs, because there's no way you can be nominated without having, you know, a political party. The independent candidate right now is not there. Look at some, you know, some folks in Lagos states, there's a young guy planning or lobbying to be, you know, the governor of the state. Look at a state for instance, my state. You know, Sharon was showing me my dear friend. He's saying he wants to be the governor of the state. He said the incumbent governor is a Batuaian governor. He has the reason for saying that. So everybody, this is a party affairs right now. And we look forward to probably after the PDP convention, then we will now see what each party will present to the, you know, to the populace, to the electorate. And at the same time, I urge our party to ensure that we produce one of the best candidates that will be acceptable to Nigerians. Because right now, Nigerian believes that 2023, after President Mohamed Gwadi, we need somebody who has the tenacity, who has the widespread, who is a state who by heart to lead this country and move forward from where President Muhammad is probably going to stop. So these are the things we are looking up in APC. But in PDP, of course, there's a lot of go to some of them are rejecting the recommendations of the Sony committee. It has one of their biggest, you know, big wings. Two former president or three of them, governments, and they're saying they are not interested in their, in their recommendation. So we're going to see a lot of issues. You know, some are still going to pull out in PDP. I can assure you, coming to APC, and we are ready to accept them. Like those nine of us, hopefully I'm sure it's going to come back. He's my dear brother. It's going to come to APC. So like many of them who are possibly going to come back because there's a lot of issues in their party. You know, right now, they have no, you know, their national executive committees is in disarray. Which is, second, is suspended. My dear friend, Kola, I don't even know where he is right now. So there's a lot of issues going back and forth. So we look forward to their convention then. Our own is coming up probably in December or January by God's grace, you know. Let's talk about it from the level of the electorate now. From conversations that you've had, and of course, you know, from what you've also felt from the people, do you think that the zoning conversation is important? Do you think there's more Nigerians that are eager to vote for either a southern or northern candidate? You know, speaking as the Nigerian, I think most of the Nigerians, you know, at least right now, they care less about where the candidate is going. They're looking at the competency right now. The competent candidate is what's going to attract them. You know, I also believe in that as a professional, you know, in politics, I believe competency, you know, is very important. I can assure you, the South House, of course, is going to present one of the best brain in terms of private and public sector that will lead this country. You know, championing, you know, some of the strategic policy that this administration is, you know, is embarking on. You know, so most Nigerians probably will not look at the zoning, where you come from or where, but of course, largely, people will believe that the power should come to the South. I've been, you know, I haven't seen, you know, you know, the performance of, for example, Ramon Iboali, and it's coming from the North extraction. So we believe that, we believe that, okay, for fairness, equity and justice, the South also should have a bite of it. So which is, you know, not my democratic setting, but I insist the Southern Governors Forum and most of our elite in the South must love it or not. Most love it or not. The issue of composting, you know, rhetorics, saying it must come to South must talk. People should manage the language or, you know, the communicator is coming out from the South. I was telling some of my, you know, Southeast friends that, you know, you can say you want to be the president of this country without lobbying or, you know, massaging few egos from the South. If you have to be or be one of the top most office in this country, you have to lobby. You can't do it alone. The South is, you know, cannot produce the presidency of this country. There's no way you want to do it. So the politics, you have to pay the policies. And some of them, like Rosario Grosso, my Governor Opus Odema, these are the things they are promoting. And the former candidate, former Senate president, they are promoting. Yes, I should know, we seem to have lost your sound once again. I'm not sure. I hope that we can reconnect with you and get clear of feed. I want to ask next, you know, you don't know that he speaks a little bit more on the reason there is more, or it seems that there is more people who are lobbying to see a Southern candidate. And I'm referring to the electorate once again. And what exactly the reason, you know, is, what the reason really is behind that. Because I've seen people who say, Mr. Sashino, can you hear us? Yes, I can. Okay, I apologize for that. I'm not sure what's going on with the network. But I want you to speak a little bit more. You'd mentioned it already. On the reason you feel there is more people who are eager to see a candidate from the southern part of Nigeria. On the reason you feel there is more people who are eager to see a candidate from the southern part of Nigeria. If you can hear us, kindly go ahead. I'm asking, why do you think there is more people who are eager to see a candidate from the south? Because I've seen people who say, regardless of the political party, even if they love the PDP or they love the APC, they're only voting for a candidate that comes from southern Nigeria. And they don't mind voting, you know, for a candidate from, you know, a party that they don't even support, as long as it is a candidate from the south. So why do you think that is? Yes, you know, people who felt in such manner are patriotic, you know, is a patriotic statement. Those of us who believe that the candidate should come from the south believe that in this country, we believe that the only way you can, you know, be free to order, you know, section of the country is by, you know, after your 80s from the north, let the south, anywhere from the south, south, south east, south west, can have it, you know. But we are not trying to boss the presidency to the south. We are appealing, you know, we are on table with some of our northern friends to see reason why we have to do this, why this has to come to our side. For instance, some of the zones in the south west like southeast, I think the presidents were very long time. So they've not even texted the presidency. So we are saying that let the presidents, let major, the leading two political parties move their presidency to the south. Either PDP or APC, they let the electorate job. You can tell me that PDP will not see a good candidate from the south. Of course, they are even bringing some of their best terms like governor, governor, my dear brother, governor Udom, good guy, you know. And he's talking there also, who is trying from the south west. You know, you're doing the little you can do, but I can assure you APC is taking over, you know, from him very soon. So they are bringing some of their, you know, little best out. And APC very soon will unveil from the south west, people who believe that they have the character, they have the widespread, they have their, their, their, their, their, you know, achievement to speak for them from the south, from the APC. So with any politics, you know, thinking towards that direction, it's a patriotic engineer. Mr. Oshino, would you vote a southern candidate of the PDP if the APC presents a candidate from the north? I think we may have once again lost him. And I would like him to answer that, you know, just really to see how emotional people are. You know, in the build up to the elections, which is still more than a year away. You know, how emotional people are concerned in, you know, the need for the presidency to move to the south in 2023. The arguments, you know, vary, you know, in different corners. Mr. Oshino, are you back? Can you hear us? Yes, I'm back. All right, so this, I was asking, you know, and this is because I've heard, you know, something that I mentioned before. There's people who say that they will vote a southern candidate, regardless of the party that the president is from. Even if it means going outside the party that they support. So would you vote a PDP candidate from the south if the APC for some reason presents a northern candidate? I will answer that question right now. You know, when you present me a candidate, I have to scrutinize the candidates, you know. I'm going to vote for, you know, the first, I was released a couple of days ago by PDP, even though they are from the south, you know, I can decide to take on another party. Of course, I'm a member of my party. So, you know, you put them to me. But I would do whatever we can right now to ensure that, you know, APC produce, you know, a candidate from the south. And I'm sure most of our party leaders are working to other direction. So I didn't see that coming. But let's leave that for now. So what do you think the emotional attachment to, you know, for the electorate really is? Where is it higher? Is it with ensuring that a southern candidate emerges or ensuring that a competent candidate emerges? I'm still speaking with Ibrahim Oshino, a policy risk management expert. And the conversation is really on zoning. And, you know, what these political parties across Nigeria would be thinking about as we move closer to 2023. And now, Mr. Oshino, I want us to now talk about the southeast and the complexities with regards presenting a southeastern candidate. There has been one or two that have been mentioned, mostly from our Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, you know, as a possible, you know, persons that might be put forward. Would you say, seeing Nigeria's history, that it is only right, it's only fair, it's only just that in 2023 one of these two political parties pushes a southeastern candidate? You know, I can say this, you know, without fear of any contradiction that the southeasterners deserve to lead this country. You know, I subscribe to the annotation of, you know, conversing for the office of the president. You know, I won't, you know, witness the war and the rest of it. But I'm absolutely against the, you know, the damage, you know, caused by the young folks who are destroying properties, you know, stopping children from doing work, you know, you know, distorting the little they have as, you know, as a southeasterner. So I've urged few concerns, you know, you know, folks who are living in the southeast and some of their political elites to kindly, you know, talk to the young folks who are damaging the little they have. They are complaining about, you know, lack of, you know, infrastructure development and the rest of them. And they are also damaging the little they have for their people. Look at the southeastern order. The southeastern order in the southeast has engulfed their economy at a scale of over 40% of their natural income that comes from, you know, SMEs, you know, trading, people commercial banks in the southeast are shutting down. You know, that's a different angle entirely, you know, and it's not necessarily, do you think that's an important angle with regards presenting a southeastern candidate? Look, like I said, there's no way you can unilaterally present a candidate, a southeastern candidate. There's no southeastern candidate. There can be a Nigerian from the southeast, not a southeastern candidate. Okay, well, a candidate from the southeast. That's what I'm saying. You can't be a candidate from the southeast without conversing, discussing, negotiating with other regions. We have six regions. You, alone from the southeast, cannot be a candidate. You have to talk. You have to discuss. And I give you to organize it. What they are doing. Some of their leaders in the National Assembly, who knows the game. They are playing it like Senator Koebe Madhu is playing it. He's talking to them. Look guys, we cannot unilaterally, even in PDP. PDP cannot give that. I bet Petal should come out, which is all these, you know, I don't know his financial analysis that he's making on, you know, comparing the Western world, the settled economies with the developing country. You know, it's unfortunate that when I listen to him, I'm always bizarre, full of bolognese in his analysis, comparing Cyprus or Malaysia, who has stapled economy, who has not suffered from leadership crisis for so many years. We have witnessed military rule that damaged our economy for many, many years. And this man will come to the National TV and you guys give him all the paparazzi to spread bolognese on National TV, breaking economy. Well, it's his perspective, you know, and, you know, I think you are also allowed to have your own perspective on governance. I would prefer candidates like Kristi Mogalu and the rest of them who can come out a professional investment banker, who can come out in Southeast, Lobby the North, Lobby the Northwest, Lobby Southwest, Lobby South South, Lobby North, Lobby North is not central and produce a candidate. I will vote for a South Eastern candidate. If it's coming from a party, I will vote for them. And they have the best opportunity in every city. They have the best opportunity to produce a presidential candidate. They have the one of the best brain. You cannot undermine the South Eastern in this country. They are actually, you know, they are one of the body that makes up this country. You know, they deserve better. But you cannot destroy your house and still feel that the house will be intact. So I urge them to play the politics. This is the time for the politics. This is the time. This is the right time. They should negotiate. They should come at a mass. They should discuss both GDP and EPC to produce the whole candidate, destroying, damaging, claiming elections, you know, old, burning national assets. That will not happen. And you will bring them south on the power. That is what I can show you. It's not the political leaders of the Southeast. Yeah, it's not the political leaders of the Southeast that are, you know, causing the mayhem in the Southeast. They are these elements. And I think we accept that they are elements of the IPOB or ESN, whoever they are, maybe just criminals in the Southeast that are causing the mayhem. It's not the political leadership. If there is, you know, a... I'm not saying... I'm not saying it's a political leadership. Maybe you didn't hear it very well. I'm not saying the political leadership. Governor Puzo Dima, I'm quoting him now, he said there is a political undertone that the opponents are igniting the crisis. Later, you can imagine a neurologist, a medical doctor, Dr. Rokwa Kuyeli, was murdered, brought their lives in his home state. He's not a politician. He's the man of a politician. He was murdered right in his home state where he was born in Anambra. He was murdered. He's a politician. He's not a politician. So, who is after the man? The man is a professional. So, and if you look at those killings, these guys are not covering their face. They are showing their face and they are from one neighborhood or the other. They know themselves. My dear brother, Joe Iko Kuei, I was raised down just because it was, you know, trying to talk them over them. Everybody cannot be on the same, you know, cannot be on the same feather. You know, in my home state, I served at the higher level as a cabinet member in my home state. It's not all governor Kuei is doing that I'm agreeing with. I have access to some other things he's doing. I believe he's not communicating with the people in the local state. Some of his best achievements are undermining. He's not doing enough to discuss with other people. That's why the likes of Sheikh Mushubah can call him, can have their function to call him back to your governor because he's not communicating. The politics is not played on social media. You have to have a strategy to discuss with people. You have to form harmony. You have to work with the former media and other stakeholders in the party. The governor's, you know, like Baba Sheikh Mushubah, he can't do it alone. He's an elder statement. Governor Benga Dane can't do it alone. Governor Mushubah is there. There can be discussion on the table. He's doing his best, but his best is not known to a lot of people. And some of us who are stakeholder, who found the party in the local state are looking back because everybody's not hungry. Everybody cannot be in government. So, the South Easterners need to come and showcase what they are able to do, their capacity. Let Nigerian believes in them. You know, they are more friendly to the South Easterners. But the Norths are perceiving them in another angle. So, they need to convince some of the North Central Nazis and the Northern elites, you know, killing many people will take them far from the power. And I can say that again. Well, once again, I get your point. And, you know, when you're talking about lobbying and, you know, mending fences and negotiating with the North and with the South, South and Middle Bed and whoever else, those are for the political leadership, the traditional leadership. That's for them to do. But when you put that, you know, side-by-side with saying, killing and burning would not help them. You're making it seem that it is the same people who are committing these atrocities. They are criminal elements in the Southeast that have committed all these atrocities and, you know, are probably still there. The government needs to ensure that they address immediately. They are not the same people who should be negotiating. They are not the same people who should be speaking of finding a Southeast and candidate. Same way, Kaduna State is going through its own security challenges. It's had multiple levels of kidnappings, murder, killings, villages, and the likes have been attacked. But, you know, it doesn't stop the, you know, Northern elite or political elite in the North from speaking and vying for presidency or for whatever political seat. Are you there? Yes, absolutely. What is the reason of killing? What is the reason of the mayor? What is the reason why some folks, some cultural elements in the Southeast are saying that there will not be elections? Why? The reason, I can tell you, it's not far-fetched, I can tell you the reason. The reason is because they believe they have been marginalized. It's because they believe that there are little or no government presence in the region. These are the reasons for their participation. I'm telling you, all these people who are killing or unknown government are from one neighborhood. Some of these classmates, there are some of these customers in the market. I get all of that. I'm saying that the people that you are referring to now are not the ones that you expect to come and negotiate with the North for a South Eastern candidate. No. That's the point that I'm making, because from your statements, you've put them in the same bracket. You've said instead of burning your houses, instead of causing mayhem, come and negotiate instead. There are no sets of people in time. Now let me break it down for you, my dear brother. Now, the governor of Ishi State can call a youth forum where all these bitter-minded young folks can be on the table. What are the issues? They will state few facts, few reasons why all this mayhem is coming up in different communities in the South East. What do they want? And I can bet you part of their agitation is that they have been tortured. They are not part of Nigeria. And their leadership, the constituted authority, the stakeholders and the non-state actor like their senators, the South East forum, the governor's forum can take their message to the center, to the forefront. I'm not saying that the young guys with 25 years will come and negotiate, but the reason why they are doing this can be gathered within their region, within their locality. The local government chairman can summon few guys and take them to the state, to the governor and the governor can take the holistic request or the holistic concern to the region and to the center. These are the gradual reason. Crime happens in the community, in the world. If somebody is killed today, probably in a kejah somebody is going to be in one world, maybe world F or world J. So somebody knows somebody who is living in world J. So from there you have the world councilor, you have the local government chairman is a ladder process. That's what I'm saying. I'm not saying they will come and negotiate at the center. No, but they can gather information, gather reasons why all these things are holding up and happening then they can take it to the local government to their house of rest member, to their senator, to the governor. They will move and move and move to that extent. So that's what I'm saying. They can negotiate but negotiator at the point is the best option at this point in time. Some of them are saying that the government should release them the canon. Some of them are saying that they need more government presence either the South Eastern president or not. Negotiation still needs to come up. That's what I mean. All right. I think nicely put, we would see how the political parties, the two major political parties position themselves in the build up to the elections. They both have decisions to make at the party level and of course I'm sure that they would also be listed very carefully to what the people are saying before they make these decisions. Ibrahim, I always enjoy speaking with you. Thank you so much for joining us this morning and we wish you a very interesting week ahead. We may have lost him once again at the end of the program but that's all you know the conversation on zoning for now. We definitely would have many more as we head closer to the elections in 2023. If you missed out on any of the conversations this morning on the breakfast remember where to find us is simply at POS TV Africa on Facebook, Instagram and do subscribe also with the same handle on our YouTube channel and POS TV Africa lifestyle. I am Osao Yi of BOMB. See you tomorrow.