 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Feng What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire Com as we are getting you set for Super Bowl 54 between the Chiefs and the 49ers breaking down some prop bets on the board for this game with JJ Zachary's and the editor-in-chief of Fandall and number fire. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as always by Ed Feng You can find his work at the powerink.com and find Ed on Twitter at the powerink Ed Happy Super Bowl week to you. How you doing? I'm doing great. I think it's gonna be a fantastic game I'm just looking forward to it got my preview out already and You know when you see a game and the spreads one and a half everyone expects it to be close and and hopefully we'll be Heading into 10 11 at p.m. On Sunday night and we'll all be glued to our TV sets with with a fantastic finish That is all we can hope for and I think that we we talked about this a long time ago But you said the reason you became a Non Eagles fan was because they fired Andy Reed So are you still rooting for Andy Reed in this game kind of like a lingering like Eagles fan sentiment? I think so. Yeah, you know, I mean it was kind of like I kind of feel like they parted ways, right? I mean they you know fired if that's the correct word then there's so be it but You know Andy Reed has been a great coach and his offense is now look nothing like some of his offenses in Philadelphia He's been able to evolve You know made a good pick in Patrick from Holmes's quarterback. Obviously, there's a little bit of of variance involved there and Making that kind of pick but but it's really working out. Yes, of course. I would like to see him win And and I really do think they are I really do think they will Don't pull this one out. I do too I'm gonna talk about them in covering the future tomorrow because we actually have two shows this week We have JJ today and then tomorrow. We're gonna break down the game itself with dr. Eric eager a pro football focus So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast with a beautiful podcast Spotify Stitcher the Google Play Store whatever it may be you can find us there and while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well JJ Zacharyson is the editor-in-chief of Fandall and number fire You can find his podcast by searching for the late-round podcast He is also on Twitter at late round QB. We're gonna talk about player props for Super Bowl 54 and where he sees value for this year or for this game also Talking about how his process may be evolving for next year given that JJ had a lot of success This year in his player props before we get to JJ though if you are looking to bet on the Super Bowl But aren't sure which team will win Fandall has you covered simply place a bet of at least $25 on an anytime touchdown score prop for the Super Bowl and receive a $1 bonus and site credit for every point scored by your selected players team up to $25. It is that easy For more details visit sportsbook.fandall.com must be 21 years old gambling problem Call 1-800-GAMLA maybe gets insights on that by what we hear from JJ So let's bring in JJ now and get his thoughts on this matchup between the Chiefs and the 49ers Covering the present Let's bring JJ Zacharyson into covering the spread JJ It was awesome having you on preseason you kind of nailed your picks there So excited to have you back on to talk about the Super Bowl. How are you doing today? I'm good I'm glad that let's just focus on the things that I got right in the preseason show as opposed to the stuff that I got wrong What could you have possibly gotten wrong? We've never got anything wrong here either so we can happily focus on what went right More than okay with doing that before we talk about that though like for me as a football fan I am just excited for the Super Bowl because it's like two crazy fun coaches Do you have any like overall takes on this game which to me seems like the most exciting one we've had and I think quite some time Yeah, I mean you look at it You're the best player probably in the league in Patrick Mahomes the most important player and Patrick Mahomes then you like you said I think that the real storyline here is the fact that you have two really Genius coaches and Andy Reid who's been getting it done on the offensive side for years Obviously, he hasn't had many opportunities like this one, but then Kyle Shanahan obviously did what he did In that Super Bowl against New England as offensive coordinator for Atlanta kind of a revenge for him to kind of Make up for what he did in that game in the second half of that game But Kyle Shanahan showing us that that he's one of the best coaches best young coach for sure In the NFL so I think the coaching storyline is definitely one that's that's really really interesting I'm glad that these two teams are in it I think when we looked at the the championship the conference championship landscape These were the two teams I was rooting for just to see them match up against one another because you have this great defense in San Francisco this Unbelievable offense with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City and we get to see those two match up and it just doesn't feel cheap Which is good. Yeah, so it should be a fun one now We talked before about how you killed it in the preseason You said you liked Derek Henry and Nick Chubb to lead the league in rushing yards They were number one and number two respectively So that was awesome, which means that your process from a projections perspective was pretty rock solid But we've been asking a lot of our guests recently What changes they're making on their process heading into next year is there anything you're going to alter as you get set for 2020 based on what happened in 2019 You know, I don't know if there's necessarily anything huge that I'm going to alter. I had some pretty good results this year I mean there were some things that I got wrong as well But obviously, you know, you mentioned the Derek Henry and Nick Chubb thing But I really think that what led me to Henry and Chubb for instance is that I try to be really mindful of range of outcomes And you know, I always talk about building projections as being a process rather than just looking at that finite that that number at the end And saying this is what I'm projecting this player to score in fantasy or how many yards he's gonna have It's really important to go through the process Of building those projections because you start to uncover a lot of different things It's not just about that and number and that allows you to sort of be open-minded about a realistic range of outcomes You know, what happens if this quarterback gets hurt What happens if this number one wide receiver gets hurt or what happens if the second year wide receiver Just doesn't perform the way that we thought that he was gonna perform Those are the sort of the questions that you have in the back of your head that allows you to be a little bit more Open-minded and free with the way that you're thinking about these projections because in the end You know projections are meant to be precise sure But in the end, they shouldn't be the only thing that you're looking at whenever you're trying to predict What's gonna happen Excellent, so yeah, let's talk about Super Bowl You know, it's obviously different from what we talked about in the preseason when you're projecting the full season for running backs and quarterbacks and receivers How is your process different in this game? especially given, you know the identity of these two teams Yeah, so, you know, it's really interesting and this goes back to sort of how people view a coach like Bill Belichick in the fantasy football world where People get angry at him because he rotates players in his backfield and he seems to be unpredictable But the good thing is is that good coaches are generally rational and being a rational coach Means that you're exploiting weaknesses of the other team And so if we're sitting back and we're analyzing the weaknesses, you know We we might be more right than we think that we are at times when we're analyzing these games And it's just that what happens on a football field isn't what we're projecting because Coaches aren't necessarily seeing the same things that we are You know coaches are not always flawless and in their game plans in the way that they go about things So I think that the one thing with this Super Bowl And you know we talked about at the top with the these two coaches going up against one another The one really interesting thing is that we have two coaches who are rational You have Andy Reed who's not afraid to throw the ball at a really high rate because he has Patrick Mahomes You have Kyle Shanahan who can exploit Defenses via the run game especially in his creative ways of getting the ball to his running backs So I think that just given that we know we know for instance that Kansas City can't stop the run very well So what do we think is going to happen? Well, Kyle Shanahan likely in a neutral game script if game script allows him to He's probably gonna want to run the football He's probably gonna want to use Raheem Mostert and if Tevin Coleman's healthy Tevin Coleman and go with a similar approach That he had against Green Bay because that was a weakness for Green Bay as well So I think that's sort of the the way that I'm looking at this game is that we finally have a game I shouldn't say finally, but we have a game where we have two coaches who should be thinking rationally And that should help us be more accurate with our projections Yeah, absolutely. I think that that's it's beneficial when you're trying to have confidence in your picks Knowing that you can reasonably project the way things are going to be attacked and like you said a neutral game script But like you said, we have a range of outcomes here, too So when you're looking for player props for a single game, is there something specific that you're looking for? You talked about range of outcomes. I think that could come to play here But are you looking for anything in particular like, you know guys with clear paths to unders role changes What stands out most to you when trying to find inefficiencies and prop betting? Yeah I mean in general projecting game script is gonna be everything It's why we we work with things like target share with attempt share because that is Agnostic in a way to to what game script is and what's gonna happen via game script You know if you have a good feel for a game overall And if there's an inefficiency at the at the game level, you know If you're looking at a line and you're saying that the chief should be favored by five points in this game Then that's that allows you to then trickle down to the players and say that there's a way to exploit that at the player Prop level so for instance, if you think the chiefs are gonna win Then that means you should bump up Damien Williams and what what could happen with Damien Williams You should probably bump down Patrick Mahomes passing totals, you know not necessarily touched on totals But is his yardage totals would probably be bumped down a little bit from a projection standpoint So you're really just trying to look at this at the game as a whole and try to predict game script Which is not much different than what you would do if you were betting the game But everything sort of starts at the top and this is how I work with all my projections It starts at the team level and then it trickles down to the player level And that's no different in a single game So JJ, I wanted to ask you Do you see Kansas City potentially getting away from their their past heavy script? Just because San Francisco has the best past defense in the NFL by a number of my metrics They're not as good at stopping the run and when I looked at the PFF snap data, you know They play a 4-3, but really you're only getting about 1.5 Players per 11 for interior linemen. Do you think that makes Andy Reed potentially go a little bit more towards Damian Williams early? Maybe a little bit early just to feel things out because we just mean we've seen that historically at times You know in these big games where teams aren't necessarily just just going hard throwing the ball down the field But you know to me I think they're still gonna you know offense dictates this league and dictates how we Project things in this league as well. Obviously, San Francisco has a great defense But what's sticky week in and week out and year in and year out is passing efficiency And what's gonna happen at that quarterback vision in a passing offense? So if we want to look at what's most projectable in this game, it's it's really Patrick Mahomes And this this and I guess to a degree the San Francisco passing attack as well That's what's gonna be most predictable and easiest to project and it's really the strength of this entire game No matter how you look at it So I think they're still gonna go with a similar game plan as they otherwise would maybe they they throw in a little bit more run Runs at the beginning of the game, but overall I don't think that they're gonna really stray from what's worked for them Especially I mean look since over the last eight weeks. They've won every single game by a touchdown or more I mean something's going right for this Chiefs team and the way they've they've attacked opposing defenses So I think that they're gonna probably stick with what they know best Yeah, six total rush attempts in the first half against Tennessee and three of those were by Mahomes on scrambles So they were they were very much an anti-read offense in the first half in the conference championship Let's talk about a specific prop here I find the first touchdown props fun because they're pretty random So maybe not the best like from an expected value perspective, but hey, you know the kind of fun You know right away if you're gonna get that cash Damian Williams is a favorite to score the first touchdown at six to one Do you have any favorites based on where things currently stand at Fandall Sportsbook? Yeah, I mean looking at the odds I have two guys that really jumped and this is kind of more of a crazy take than one. That's that's super super I mean, I think it's logical, but now we're all in favor of crazy take Yeah, I mean like just toss it at us. I'm not just going with like Travis Kelsey or George Kittle or someone like that I think I think one really interesting bet is Patrick Mahomes is at plus 2000 Right now if you look at what he's done in the playoffs and specifically This see or this he's basically when he's been healthy He runs the ball a lot more than than I think people realize but in the playoffs He's had 15 rush attempts over these two games He was hurt this year So if you just compare that seven and a half per game rush attempt total to what he did last year where he was Rushing fewer than four times per game. He's clearly upped his his rushing volume over the last two weeks San Francisco also has a good pass rush that could cause Mahomes to leave the pocket a little bit And there may be a little bit more D-gaffness and wildness to Patrick Mahomes because it's a Super Bowl, right? So he might just throw his body around a little bit more. So I think Mahomes that at his Current number is pretty attractive But the other one that I'm I'm really really into and I think is really interesting is Especially if Tevin Coleman doesn't play if Tevin Coleman plays this one's kind of obsolete But if he does play or if he doesn't play Jeff Wilson a really interesting option for San Francisco. He's the next man up in that 49ers rotation He scored four touchdowns on 27 attempts this year and in weeks two and three He had 18 total carries while Tevin Coleman was sidelined and all four of his touchdowns came at the goal line He actually finished the year with 16 red zone attempts of his 27 total attempts So when Jeff basically when Jeff Wilson has been active, he's been their goal line back He's been the guy that San Francisco has gone to Close to the end zone. So I think that he's a really really interesting bet if Tevin Coleman doesn't play and the Jeff Wilson One is good because if Tevin Coleman is active, Jeff Wilson will probably be inactive and I Believe most games this year where Tevin Coleman has been an active or has been active Wilson's been inactive and if you go to Fandall Sportsbook Their terms of service states that if a player is an active and you have a prop bet on them The prop bet is you get your money back. That's not true at every book So if you're betting at a different book than Fandall Sportsbook, make sure you know the terms of your book But that's really good for the Jeff Wilson one. I want to go back to my homes It's kind of similar to what we saw with Trevor Lawrence in the college football playoffs and in the The championship game where what Clemson needed to win They were willing to use Lawrence as a rusher more often with my homes They wanted to win week 17. It was they're trying to get that by week. He ran seven times there at the time is most of the Year seven and eight the past two games Does that make you interested in any of his rushing props or is it mostly just the first touchdown prop that stands out to you there? I think it's mostly the first touchdown prop and the main reason for that is I do think that game script would make that more Relevant for Patrick Mahomes is rushing total But you know early in the game when they when the game situation is more neutral I think it's a little bit more attractive for him to you know, especially at that number for him to get that first touchdown Alrighty any other player props that stick out to you for this game? Yeah, I have two of them They're both running back ones actually the first one. I think that Damian Williams Rush attempt number is a little bit low So I'm gonna go over the 12 and a half rush attempts for Damian Williams. If you look back He came back from injury Four games ago. So in those four games, he's averaged 14.3 Russia times per game and 12 has been his floor And obviously I can't just preach game scripts And ignore the fact that they were leading in those games But in neutral game scripts, he should get close to that 12 mark because in neutral scripts over this time He's seen 16% of their offensive plays as rushes, which would get you you know if they run 60 ish plays plus plays He's gonna get around 10 to 11 rushes just based on that So basically if there's a neutral script or a positive script for this Kansas City offense Damian Williams should be able to hit that number. So that was the first one That I saw that really jumped out. The other one is more of a recency bias thing This is something I think I probably talked about the last time we chatted, but I usually fade recency bias It's just an usually an easy win And I think that the one guy that everyone's gonna be on and want to be on is Raheem Mostard After what he did in the NSC championship game We have to remember that Tevin Coleman got hurt in that game So Raheem Mostard saw a higher running back rush share than he typically does San Francisco this season Their max running back rush share was under 80% in a single game So no running back for San Francisco this season saw higher than an 80% running back rush share in the NFL The only team that was lower than that was Baltimore because they also have a rotation But that just tells us that it's hard for these running backs to see a lot of volume and obviously volume then leads to Rushing production, but Raheem Mostard currently at 77 and a half rushing yards. I just think there's a lot of recency bias there We saw him hit 58 in their game against Minnesota, which was a super positive game script But Tevin Coleman was healthy there and then we saw You know, I really think the only way that that Mostard gets that 78 mark is if they do see a nice positive game script And that they're a or or if they're just really really efficient running the football But I think the odds are sort of against that just naturally so and then also you can probably look at his receiving total too I think his overall total is like 91 yards. He's not used that much as a receiver So he's another player or that's another reason to sort of just fade and look at the under for Raheem Mostard in this game Excellent. So JJ any thoughts on the game itself? We have a total of 54 and a half The spread is with the chiefs at minus one and a half. I actually think the juice is on the chiefs now Any thoughts on the the total or the side? I really like the chiefs. I'm not really sure what to think of the total to be honest with you I think it's pretty fair, but I like the chiefs at minus one and a half A lot of people are gonna use historical Super Bowl performances and favor the defensive team because that's what we've seen in Super Bowls But it's it's bad practice to look at that small of a sample size And sort of go for from there It just doesn't make any sense to do that especially when so many of those games could have gone the other way I mean you can look at like the Arizona and Pittsburgh Super Bowl where Arizona was a pretty past heavy team They could have easily won that game if you look at the Patriots against the Falcons The Falcons could have easily won that game. It's just not worthwhile digging into those small samples But I mentioned it earlier I mean the chiefs have looked really good since early November since that loss that they had against Tennessee They've won each game by a touchdown or more I do think that San Francisco matches up fairly well against Kansas City But we just are seeing this insane passing efficiency from Patrick Mahomes right now and that again Like I talked about earlier is what sticky week over week and year over year in the NFL is that passing component So I really think that Patrick Mahomes can tear up this the secondary I think he's that good But I do think also that what we talked about earlier that the mobility of Patrick Mahomes is actually gonna be pretty key in this game Yeah, absolutely one one. Yeah Go ahead. Oh, I was just gonna say I agree with you I mean, I just feel like the upside of Kansas City's offense is greater than yeah the upside of San Francisco's defense So, yeah, I would agree with you there. Yeah, should be a fun game Again, I'm just excited to watch it because I enjoy watching Kyle Janehand schemes and Andy Reed being Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes He and Patrick Mahomes So we can sit back hopefully get some cash and these props that JJ is talking about and enjoy the game JJ I want to thank you once again for swinging on by and talking to some player props It's uh, it was a fun conversation once again. Hopefully this one is as profitable as the last one was Thank you again, and hopefully we'll talk to you again soon. Enjoy the game. Thanks guys. Appreciate it. Thank you. Yeah, thanks JJ Covering the future Big thank you once again to JJ Zacharyson for swinging by and breaking down cheese versus 49ers Follow JJ on twitter at late round qb and make sure you check out the late round podcast as well And Ed, I think that something that JJ brought up that I've had some trouble grappling with the past week is specific matchups and where teams may have advantages and I'm having some troubles with this one. Uh, what's your read on some big matchups that are going to dictate the way this game plays out Yeah, I mean, it's really Kansas City's offense versus San Francisco's defense. That's most intriguing Uh, that's why I asked JJ whether he thought Andy Reed would go away from the usual script of throwing a lot On early downs, you know first down on the first half You know when you look at the numbers, Kansas City throws on first down on the first half way more than any other team in the NFL And and that's that should be what you do against when you have Patrick Holmes And um, you know, but but san francisco like like I mentioned in that segment You know, they're not as good as defending the run. Maybe do we see a couple more runs? But I kind of agree with JJ It kind of makes sense because when you think about the matchups and you think about the speed of tiry kill And just the way that san francisco's top corner Richard Sherman plays He's an excellent player, but speed and athleticism have never been a strength He's actually written about how film study is the most important part of this game So you can imagine a situation on early downs where tiry kill is just kind of getting eight ten young ten yard chunks On some outs and and I think if that's available and Andy Reed's probably going to take that most of the time So, you know, maybe we don't see that Maybe we don't see more running from them even though they might have some matchups advantages. They're against San Francisco's defense Yeah, I think they were if you look at first and second down the first half they threw 64 percent of the time I believe And it was pretty nuts, but their efficiency was also pretty nuts and the thing that I think Pushes me towards assuming they'll still be pretty pass heavy Is that if you look at my home's numbers against really good defenses He was still disgusting. I average 0.34 passing that expected points per drop back against a top 10 pass defense Which means nothing if you don't know analytics But that would have been the third best mark in the league overall this year including all defenses But he did that against top 10 pass defenses He was actually worse against defenses ranked outside the top 10 because he's just he's a cyborg so In some sense matchups didn't matter and I also think if we're talking about this from a different matchup perspective The biggest advantage Kansas City has over san francisco is speed and their speed is it's partially in damon williams He's pretty fast too, but like that passing game has so many dudes who can kill you And I feel like if you're looking at it from that perspective It also does favor a pass heavy script. So I think we're on the same page here where We probably still expect the cheese to be pretty pass heavy as far as the 49ers ago like I'm having a harder time predicting them because hey, I expect Kansas City to win Which means a naturally more pass heavy script But also mike pennell was a guy that cheese brought in in week eight and their rush defense from week eight on was still Below average. It was still pretty bad, but it wasn't like historically bad The six they allowed a 51 percent rushing success rate to teams to running backs from weeks one through seven It was down to 43 percent from week eight odd. So hey, it was a little bit better. It was still bad but it was better so My assumptions that they're going to want to run I just don't know like what the success will be of that because like I I don't want to doubt kyle shanahan I just think that eventually they're going to have to throw here Oh, yeah, for sure. They're going to have to throw. Um, I I don't think we're going to see a similar thing that we saw in green Bay where they absolutely couldn't stop it I mean, I think that was a little fluky just how well san francisco ran it against green bay who, you know, granted Is not a good rush defense But we won't see that same scripts Unlikely we see the same turnovers and the game getting out of hand early It also seemed like there was like this kyle shanahan revenge factor against mike petten because mike petten was The head coach in cleveland's when kyle shanahan was the oc there and did not enjoy his time And it seemed like he was just like i'm just gonna embarrass his dude and it worked So if you could do that, do it for sure. I mean petten brought it upon himself a little bit But you know, it was uh, right? I think that shanahan enjoyed himself. That's the way I'd put that Fandall continues to give you more ways to win this time with its big game props pick-up contest Log into your fandall or fandall sportsbook account answer 15 questions on the cheese matchup with the 49ers If you get between 12 and 14 questions, right? You will earn a hundred dollars again with no entry fee if you get all 15 questions, correct You'll earn 15 000 and the best part is it's completely free to play Seriously to enter visit fandall dot com or sportsbook dot fandall dot com eligibility restrictions apply Let's talk more about this cheese versus 49ers game again We'll get back to this game tomorrow with dr. Eric eager a pro football focus But first ed You want to talk about the side in this game right now? It is the chief's minus one and a half and it's actually minus 115 on the chief's minus one and a half Which you alluded to when we were talking to jj Which is interesting because it's actually at one in a couple other books So fandall seems a lot more bullish on the chief's than other books may be What do you see when you look at the number at one and a half in this game? Well, I mean you have to respect a you know sharp sportsbook like fandall You know shading kansas city at one and a half You know my number is kansas city by 1.6 So that suggests absolutely no value in this game But what I do think is interesting is how I came about this number So there's a bunch of different factors that go into my model But really this number is kind of a balance of two things So first there's data from the current season and that actually favors san francisco by A little bit in this game. So they've actually had a really strong season. The defense has been excellent I think that kind of balances out numbers wise with what kansas city's offense has done But numbers wise san francisco's offense has been better than kansas city's defense One of the reasons if you just looked at the data from see this season, it would favor san francisco But another thing that's still in my model and it might surprise some people But there's still a little bit of a pre-season component in there as well You know, there tends to be a little bit more weight with the nfl just because it's such a league With regression to the mean you see ally our performances like what we saw from baltimore this year and just kind of They regressed and they regressed pretty hard in that one game against Tennessee And you don't remember, you know, this model actually lies kansas city by almost a touchdown in this game And kansas city was a primary super bowl contender at the beginning of the season They obviously didn't play like that the whole season really hit a rough patch during the middle And mohomes wasn't really his lead self. He was working through some injuries The offense has certainly surged and now they do look like that super bowl contender Through their two games and the playoffs and so so it's kind of like, you know The balance of the two things in my model that are landing on kansas city by about one and a half He also had to look at the defense too This unit has gotten better just a couple numbers halfway through the season eight games So this has been right after the green bay game where, you know, the defense was not good The defense was 18th when I look at uh passing success rate They were seventh when I look at yours for pass attempt against them And they were dead last when I look at rushing success rate and as you mentioned, you know You mentioned their success rate against running backs very similar to what I have My number would say that they would allow 50 success rate against an average nfl rush offense Now you look for the season and all those numbers have gotten better They're 12th when you look at passing success rate on defense third and adjusted yards per play I think a lot of that is big play prevention because their two safeties have the best Cover grades out of the secondary So those guys are doing a good job And yes, they are still last in rush defense when you look at adjusted success rate over the course of the season But now they're only predicted to allow 47 success rate against an average nfl team. So improvement You obviously alluded to some of the personnel changes that uh that potentially got them there Again, I think san Francisco is going to be able to run but It's not going to be like last week I think this is going to be a good game And and you know a game in which Kansas City probably kicks a late field goal to win it Yeah, I think with wand thornhill their other safety outside attire math you being out It could be a negative if they were facing a different team But they're facing a team that does not throw deep jimmy garoppolo's average depth of target was like Bottom two or three guys in the entire league this year. They don't throw deep Which means that wand thornhill being out is not really going to be a major deterrent there And I think that that's uh that's super beneficial And I think the other thing too is it's very interesting about your model is that If we look at this From and we include the prior it favors the chiefs If we you know skew things towards the second half of the year it's going to favor the chiefs as well But it still winds up at this one and a half number. Um, so I like talking through the process then I guess it's very interesting that the that the prior is still included I'm guessing it's not a big portion of the model at this point though It's not but You know had at kansas had kansas city just squeaked by their two playoff games You wouldn't see You know kind of the expectation that that this team is a prime super bowl contender in this number I think you would it would have skewed a little bit the other way. Um, so Yeah, but it's but it's in there and and that's what I found to be the most predictive Interesting. I like that and we also have talked about that in the march madness podcast about how like Prizes and polls are predictive once you get to the tournament too. So People know what they're doing going into the year betters know what they're doing. They're setting, you know, totals and stuff like that So I think that's all very interesting. I'm glad that you were able to talk about that because it's uh, It's fun to learn about those things for sure I'm going to talk about something that is far less mathy Because I'm going to talk about george kiddole This scored the first touchdown of this game going back to the player props we were discussing with jj And he's at nine to one right now at vandal sports book I was able to get him at ten to one over the weekend. So I would do some number shopping here. You may be able to get better than nine to one, but I probably like george kiddole in this spot and He's pretty likely to find the end zone here because the chiefs have a lot of strengths on their team But linebacker play ain't one of them. They allowed the fifth most receiving yards of tight ends during the regular season That's compared to allowing the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers in the entire league and you know, they could decide that Hey, we're gonna put tyron matthew on george kiddole because tyron matthew has been elite Like he's a big reason that past defense has gotten better as you were leading to down the second half They could just say we're gonna take out kiddole and put matthew on him and they did that at times this year We know when they're facing hunter henry and darren waller We saw matthew on those guys a couple of times So i'm guessing we will see some matthew on kiddole, but George kiddole weighs 60 pounds more than tyron matthew He is seven inches taller than tyron matthew And that's still not necessarily a great match if you know tyron matthew is I would say one of the best secondary players in the entire league If we look at this 49ers offense from week 13 on which is when debo samuels role really expanded Kiddole has 31 percent of the 49ers overall targets That is in addition to 33 percent of the red zone looks so when they get in close to the goal line They're going kiddole's way and that's probably why kiddole is plus 125 to score a touchdown anytime He is also Plus 850 to score two touchdowns. So Seeing him at nine to one to score first. I think is pretty intriguing now I also think hands said he's gonna win this game and that makes this a little bit risky because I'm expecting them to score more often than san francisco, but I think getting kiddole at nine to one Is pretty intriguing again I would look around because you may be able to get some 10s out there for kiddole Or maybe even better depending on the way things look, but it's a pretty favorable match up for kiddole Against these linebackers and potentially against tyron matthew Where I want to broadly at least take a look at it, but I know First touchdown score pretty erratic. I think is the word I would use sure as a market But I you know, I'll give it a look. Uh, is this a market you have any interest in at all? A little bit. I mean, I'm intrigued that the running backs have You know the highest odds even though, you know, wide receivers tend to score more touchdowns. So I haven't looked at it closely, but it's certainly um, you know, I I think that The more randomness is involved in a particular type of bet the More usable data and numbers are sure And a counter example is like, you know, you can bet on whether the first Play is run or pass and you can use data there, too But there's less randomness in that play call. That's something that's in the mind of an offensive coordinator or a coach Uh, you know, he's looking at something to see um You know, whatever the matchups are so, you know, what A team did on first down in the first half isn't necessarily Going to apply to that prop bet Um, whereas like the data could for something that's truly random something like turnovers the first touchdown You have a better chance at applying the data to to make a good wager on that And of all the plays in a game The predictiveness will be highest in the first one because You're not going to have a score teams can do what they want You're not going to have a down a distance to achieve its first and 10 So, yeah, I think that if you're going to pick one play It makes sense to go at that one as far as the running backs go I think that damien Williams at six to one is actually kind of interesting just because He's the only running back they use which means if it is a rushing touchdown and it's not patrick mahomes It will be him So I think that It makes sense for him at six to one. I don't want to touch jeff. Uh, sorry not jeff Well, it's not right. He mustered at 650, but right Williams makes sense. He can also get a receiving touchdown. He had like a couple recently so I can see that but With how good the chief's passing offenses and how lethal they are through the air I would bet they probably scored through the air as well That is all we have for today We're going to be back again tomorrow to talk with dr. Eric eager a pro football focus Get his thoughts in the game mostly focusing on the total and the side here So we'll get his thoughts. I believe you said he's down in miami, right? He's down in miami Sweet not jealous at all. This is like whale capper all over eastern san diego outside having fun I'm in syracuse. You're in michigan. Eh, you know, whatever. Thanks, eric for rubbing it in But we'll talk to him tomorrow big. Thank you to jj zacker recent for swinging by and breaking down All those prop bets find jj on twitter at late round qb and once again his podcast Is the late round podcast ed what's you got going on for this week over at the powering? Yeah, I released my super bowl preview. Uh, I look at matchups In the game san francisco I look at matchups in the game based on tendencies. Uh, we've obviously covered some of them in this episode But I also on the defensive side of the ball looked at snap data to figure out what these teams do in terms of personnel I thought that was pretty interesting something. I'm definitely planning on doing more in the future So you can check that all out at the power rank.com. Um, you know, there's my member prediction is out there There's nothing behind a paywall this week for the super bowl And then uh, yeah, we'll have another episode of uh, the football analytics show as well So the super bowl preview you can listen and read, uh, something i've been trying to do a little bit more With some of my episodes and then there will actually be another episode of my podcast But uh, I'll let you know about that tomorrow I almost always use the listen version because I don't have the patience Usually because usually when I'm like Trying to consume like this stuff. It's during work And I don't want to lose out on productivity if JJ's listening not missing out on productivity Um, so I'll I'll do the listen version. So I appreciate you ed and everyone who does that as well So check out the football analytics show and check out all of ed's work over at the power rank as well I am at gymsanus j i m s a n n e s We had a dfs podcast breaking down the single game slate with myself and brandon gadoula You can find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast And again, you can subscribe to this one as well by searching for covering the spread big Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for keeping us on the airwaves here as always Thank you cal and thank you to everyone for tuning in more super bowl talk coming up tomorrow with dr Eric here. We'll get his thoughts chiefs versus 49ers This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duo podcast network