 Hi, my name is Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new a very very warm welcome to you And if you're a returning watcher and subscriber Warm welcome to you also, please don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow colleagues Press that subscribe and like button button. Sorry and notification bell so that you're alerted to all of the Latest videos when they come out anyways Trading 180 just a quick recap is just really our trade processes applying fundamental analysis to establish directional bias and then Technical analysis supplying the mass strategies to time trade entries established profit targets and risk management But let's get into first things first. I guess the week ahead and looking at the week ahead on trading economics com Monday, we've got balance of trade for China Really, we've got balance of trade. I think for Canada if you're trading the Canadian dollar I guess the forecast and the consensus is for definitely more growth in Canada balance of trade is important because it gives us an indication of you know gross domestic product and Also was one Tuesday. We've got the balance of trade for the U.S. Wednesday, nothing really Thursday ECB interest rate decision and the expect they're expected to hold rates The ECB and for good reason, which we'll get into I guess a bit later on Core inflation is expected in the U.S. Is expected to rise which again puts a bit of pressure on the Fed Federal Reserve to look for to look to high crates Which they you know are on that path As well as Friday, you got the pound. We've got GDP month for month again expected The forecast is expected to grow from definitely the minus zero point two for month for month perspective Canada unemployment rate unemployment expected to go down which is going to be good and again Michigan consumer can send a report not really that important or not something that I really keep an eye on so Some market moving news, but I think in general, you know overall we're looking at risk sentiment But let's get into some of the charts and a bit more fundamental and resentment analysis and start off as we usually do on the Dollar index and the dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against a basket of currencies like the Pound the yen and the euro major currencies, but before I guess we get straight into the Dollar we've got to really kind of look at the macros the fundamentals as well as the risk sentiment and the risk At the moment is definitely off. You know front plate page of Bloomberg, you know the Russia invasion of Ukraine Ukraine updates Russia's VTB Bank reportedly set to exit Europe Doesn't look like anything's really getting better. Although in the background there are, you know proposed talks happening Which is always, you know positive So let's see what happens with that bad the moment We are on a risk off in Environment and one of the things that you know, you have to be aware of I think a couple of traders were asking me In the group and both on on YouTube and private messages emails was that well why is You know certain currencies not getting stronger and weaker for example You're certain pairs in a way like the Aussie yen and I'm gonna get more into that but basically every single Risk event should be one of the things that you need to take into account is the fact that You know is is the geography of the risk event, right? So for example, what countries are more affected by the risk event than others and not every risk event is the same You can't just you know, think that okay Well in a risk-off environment, you know, you should always buy the Japanese yen against every single currency That's not how it works, right? We can't think in such a binary and an absolutes because every risk event has different effects on different economies, right? so as an example of that this is from the Royal Bank of Canada and Russia Ukraine impact on the charts so of the countries we monitor the euro area has by far the greatest direct trade exposure to Russia Right, and it makes sense. So if you look at the euro Geographically and the euro area to where you know, the conflict is of course, you know The euro area going to be more affected than the UK then you know on the other side of the world I guess I've decided to call it the other side but Canada US and Australia right when it comes to imports and exports and How GDP is directly affected by what is going on? So from that perspective, you know, the current a currency's strength or weakness and an appreciation of depreciation Can be determined and influenced by How how well the country is doing right so from that perspective if if the euro area Is is geographically going to be you know affected and the direct trade exposure to Russia Then obviously just the reason why you're seeing You know the euro currency fall right or depreciate and devalue It's simply because of the the fact that the the Russia Ukraine war has on The euro on Europe geographically and and their involvement so from that perspective, you know We'll get into that bit there only in the euro But that's the reason why you're seeing certain currencies go, you know higher or maybe not react as they typically would in In all risk-off environments anyways focusing more on the dollar and getting back to the dollar and Sorry about that. We've got I don't know. I've put the thing out. Here we go so Fed's urgency for steep rate hikes lessons after wage gains control so Labor force participation in rising and pay growth has slowed strong hiring gives power room to make a more steady Approach and so the Federal Reserve are looking to hide crates. They were looking to hide crates At probably 50 basis points or zero point five percent but now probably less so simply because of a the the the the risk-off situation and The fact that the central bank don't necessarily have to raise high crates aggressively so You have to definitely raise high crates because of inflation rising inflation But maybe not so aggressively and that's helped also buy some data. It's a Jerome Powell Pals pushed to limit the Federal Reserve's Interest rate lift off this month to a quarter percentage point was bolstered by unexpected stagnant wages to stagnant wage growth It helps or contributes towards inflation So because they're stagnant. It doesn't necessarily contribute towards higher It may not contribute towards higher inflation in at least a short term Which means that they don't necessarily have to hike rates as aggressively, you know Amid strong hiring seen in February's jobs reports while employers added 678,000 to payrolls and unemployment fell to 3.8 percent average hourly earnings were little changed from January As a setback for workers, but it suggests the US central bankers aren't facing an immediate wage price spiral similar to the 1970s Which reduces the urgency to take bolder steps towards curbing hot inflation? And if you're wondering what the hell is going on that don't understand, etc. I Do have some fundamental Analysis videos talking about interest rates inflation and the relationship between that on GDP And how they're interlinked and I'll try and remember to put the the link in the description box below or There's a link in the top right hand corner So you can watch the fundamental analysis course and the basics of fundamental analysis and really why How these things come into play anyways From that perspective, you know if you've been watching my channel for any length of time You'll understand that I am bullish on the dollar, right? And again, I've been putting on the dollar for for dollar for over a year now and pretty much what you're seeing is You know prices go, you know higher and higher and higher, right? This is it's not a mystery as to why the dollar is going higher if you understand, you know risk sentiment and fundamental analysis and You know, this is just proof in the pudding that if you get the fundamentals right you can predict, you know medium to long-term trends so Again, I don't know whether traders would have got short there at me I was looking for pullbacks again as you can see from, you know last week's Video and the previous weeks and previous months videos you go back and look at all the evidence I will suggest in saying continually to say, you know, buy dollars and again not financial advice But why I was buying dollars and you can see really why, you know, the dollar's been making higher highs and On this really yearly trend. So from that perspective, I was anticipating a pullback at some point You know to a demand zone which helps, you know when it comes to buying on the other dollar crosses But sir, we just didn't get any kind of pullbacks, right? The dollar also being a bit of a safe haven Currency and all we've seen this prices go higher But that just now means that as we make higher highs I can now start to add more demand zones and just Literally, you know trading becomes a whole lot easier than trying to guess, you know Which way prices may go in the medium to long-term if you understand that or you're really looking for is, you know Pullbacks right so pullbacks into that area is going to be really nice or pullback into this area No one knows which way which one is going to reverse from but the point being is that any pullback represents a bargain price potentially if the fundamentals are still in play So again not looking at necessarily buying the dollar index although you can also and brokers But for me this just adds confidence to buying for example, dolly dolly yen dollar Swiss Currency pairs if you get, you know prices come down into these demand zones and then it comes down into a nice demand zone on a on a dollar cross And then looking for any kind of upside potential if you are looking for, you know short trades and selling dollar at the moment nothing recent right so You do have a pretty a supply zone from 2020 Daily demands, sorry supply zone, but for me I'd want to see proof of value But I get my path is my direction biases is more to the upside anyways looking at the dollar yen And the dolly in from last week again from a risk-off perspective The Japanese yen typically tends to strengthen and you know, you've had a bit of a ramp up in risk sentiment With I think there was a nuclear power plant that got bombed Or taken over by the by the Russians and so again risk sentiment coming back off or more off I guess and So, you know, you had that pullback on the Thursday and the Friday for me again I'm probably still a buyer of the of the dollar At the moment or looking for upside potential not saying that it's gonna go to the heavens no idea But I think any fresh demand zones are gonna be decent. I think anything from that 1450 114 You know 114 50 half number down to probably anywhere around here is gonna be where I'm looking for for buy trades And and that's really where I want to look for like I said the buy trades again Probably zooming down into lower timeframes and looking at you know support and resistance within that zone That 14 said that 1450 area. I think is really nice Many traders in the group recognize that as a bit of a CPR say a bit of but it is a CPR zone Intradiate demand zone. So so yeah, that is nice I think for a for a for a long trade again prices could cut through here And we could you know saying that prices are going to reverse of course, you know What we do in trading when it is look for the price reaction see what happens there the prices go straight through then It just goes straight through right becomes a bit more of a bargain. It could come down to the 14 20s, but I'm saying predicting anything just saying that as an area of interest and I want to see how prices react and what the Resentment is at the time and then decide whether I want to look for a buy or sell trade there But again, just looking more from a from a daily timeframe perspective Yeah, these zones I think are decent for a potential buy if you wanted if you do want to get Short on this currency pair at the moment. There's nothing Of interest, I think probably if you're looking for anything probably a pullback into a fresh area of supply around the 16 116 areas for for a bit of a short trade and less prices make lower lows lower highs like this Let me just get rid of these These drawings and then you've got let's say for example prices, you know Break that supply zone and then you're looking for a pullback into Sorry that demand and I should say if supply breaks at demand zone Then you're looking for that area as an area of supply and in a pullback into that zone But again depends on the risk sentiment and the actual currency pair Moving on to the Swiss dollar Swiss dollar Swiss Again potential for that pullback again more risk of sentiment coming into the market from last week Prices did sell off. We were in and I'm still in this trade matter of fact from from down here swing trading it Let's see what happens if risk comes back more on then I think this trade is going to be really nice If not, it's portrayed as already profitable. So if I get stopped out on my final Positions, then it's still a profitable trade. I'll just look for you know more buying opportunities down at these lows potentially From a demand zone perspective, I want to get rid of that and Supply is probably around here. So yeah, I think at the moment I Think anything below This level here one second. Let me just get rid of all this. I think this area here We've got the 1950s, I think that's going to be a really nice zone to potentially look for any kind of long trades And if not then just below that area I think it's going to be nice at 91 round number or the 0.908 Area for a long trade again. I'm more bullish on the dollar than I am The Swiss Frank even in the risk off environment in the current risk of environment Moving on actually matter of fact For that if you do want to get short on the honest currency pair, you're looking really at that area there Probably maybe even a bit higher The 93s for a bit of a short trade Moving on to the dollar CAD and again in a risk-off environment You'd probably expect the the US dollar to strengthen over the The Canadian dollar you can see from last week last week's analysis of saying that price probably may come down to this area Here the one two six and then you know go higher. So it did move, you know, a couple of hundred pips from last week Again, these are the areas that you were looking for for shorts and longs, but um, I Would say yeah, this is probably now where I Think personally the dollar should strengthen more than the Bank of Canada in a risk-off scenario The Bank of Canada did high crates, which is generally positive for the For the Canadian dollar as well as commodity prices, but I think again Just from a risk-off sentiment kind of things escalating I do think that the The dollar I think in this environment probably should do slightly better not really a pair that I'm looking to trade There is a supply zone there So if you are looking at short trades looking to buy the Canadian dollar I think that area is really nice for a short trade again looking at any kind of long trades and buying the dollar I think any pullbacks below that 1.26 area is a decent long trade But nothing. I'm really looking at buying or trading at the moment moving on to the dollar New Zealand dollar US dollar And again, I think in a risk-off environment the US dollar should strengthen, but What's been happening recently is I think that the the New Zealand dollar Also looking to high crates and this could probably be more of a bit of a pullback but I do think because they are at least affected by the Potensions in the Ukraine. You're seeing prices, you know go a bit higher for me. This isn't a pair that I'm looking at trading anyway But if you are then I think this area Top as far as this one six nine round number where we are currently is actually quite decent for a potential long trade I really do you've got a wide zone of demand there and when you get those wide zones of demand what you want to do is break that down one of the ways to break that down is by Looking at areas of horizontal support and resistance Within that demand zone so we know that prices are making higher highs higher lows and any pullbacks I think into that 0.67 cent area or just above it I think would be a nice area to look for potential long trades You also have a bit of a mini area right here as well if you are looking to buy the New Zealand dollar That's been used as support and resistance in the past But again, not really a pair that I'm looking to trade short trades now long trades You're pretty looking at pullbacks into you know the earliest is going to be this 60.6775 area. So that's really the area to look for any kind of long trades if you're looking to take this currency pair Moving on to the pound dollar and the pound dollar Again in a risk-off environment and again the British pound probably being slightly more affected by the Russia and Ukraine invasion You're seeing again the pound sell off a little bit again referring back to the The impact of the Direct trade exposure to Russia. Yeah, the UK is there. So again, you can't expect really technicals to work out 110% simply because it's you know the prices are being driven And they're always really driven in the medium to long term by the fundamentals, right? So we've got a supply zone there And as far as a location is concerned, I do like this area As a as an area of technical, you know, it's it's a low But again, you'd have to really believe that the pound is going to increase in value somehow against the US dollar So for me not really something that I'm interested in I think if anything I think again if any pullbacks is pretty going to be more continued pullbacks And and the power for these resistances to the downside lower highs lower lows So a bit of a pullback to the underside of that area is decent for a potential short, but looking at the the pound We've got vacancies are increasing for every type of job in the UK So over 220,000 new jobs job adverts posted in final week of February figures show tight labor market That is surprisingly worrying Bank of England officials, but it's positive news. It is positive news for the UK economy And I think the situation it says that there's a quote here says we're new with renewable uncertainty and a huge rise in energy costs We are currently experiencing the business confidence We have seen over the past few months could well be dented in the coming weeks and months. So again, um, you know with the I guess the contagion of the Russia tensions and Ukraine tensions says John Gray vice president UK operations and analyst software Firm, uh, it will be crucial that we continue to monitor the data for signs of how Employers are reacting to this new situation. So, um, Let's see what happens again Again, but generally there is there is good news Um, uh, when it comes to the hiring and the UK economy, the problem is is again The tensions as well as the inflation problems, right? So let's see what happens there But for me, I think it's probably more downside if I'm looking to Trade this currency pair, then it would be continued the shorts that supply um, moving on to the euro Zola euro dollar again, um, it's a no brainer Um, I was looking for a pullback really into this supply zone to get short just didn't happen. Unfortunately So, uh, we've actually now That demand has been taken out and that now adds to another supply zone. So if we do get a pullback We do get pullbacks what I'm looking to do again, not financial advice I'm looking for, you know potential, you know shorts around here on a pullback um and again looking at uh from from europe The ECB to press pause and stimulus plans as war impact Wade so officials prepared to do what is needed to prevent to preserve stability and economies still think a hike in 2022 or still see a hike in 2022 with qv to end in september, um, but I don't know whether that's it depends on whether things, um, you know develop or how things develop So the european central bank is set to take a time out from plotting its exit from stimulus as it assesses the damage of Russia's war in ukraine could inflict on the continent's economy and you know, central banks don't want to hike rates Um, and their economy is really not growing, right? So from that perspective, they are behind the curve Um, and they're the most affected by the uh by the war So, um for me again, I think the path of these citizens is to the downside again I've been saying this for for ages, right? There was a period and I do believe there will be a time to buy the euro But at the moment it's just not uh now especially with the the war going on and as well as the impact of of um the the war on the european economy, right? Because that also, you know, you're gonna have to have an aftermath just because the war is over It doesn't mean that you should necessarily buy or that i'm going to be buying a buyer of the euro We have to see how the impact of that um of the situation um has affected the euro And if it's affected the more than for example the u.s Economy then again for me, it's still shorts all the way. Um Again looking to buy the euro and there's nothing there's no there's no area No level that i'm looking to buy the euro You'd have to really wait for proof of value meaning you'd have to wait for a situation like this to occur where prices start to, you know, move a lot higher then come back down Potentially, you know proof of demand for the euro that might be the floor But who knows but there's you know if prices do move up then that will be a proof of value And then you can assess if prices do you know come down anywhere around here Maybe pull backs on on higher highs higher lows, right? Um But yeah as it goes the divergence is still there and um until my path for this Resistance is still to the downside Moving on to the australian dollar and again australian dollar Going higher in a risk-off environment might seem a bit strange I'm not paired i'm trading, you know specifically but from the perspective of A commodity prices, right? So commodity prices making, you know, um higher highs Sorry, not that one. So commodity prices saw most in decades So as russia's invasion of the ukraine intensifies the volatility in commodity markets increased With the russian economy becoming increasingly more isolated by the sanctions. Let me just zoom in a little bit And its products boycotted Brent crude futures searched the 10-year high while EU natural gas new castle coal aluminium copper palladium And we hit all time and all time high, right? So that is helping actually commodity currencies like um the The australian dollar, right? So, um, I think wheat is um is making highs as well So you've got demand zones And uh, you know the australian economy is an is an export of wheat. So, um We've got Here so again, not all risk-off scenarios are the same You have to treat each one differently in the market. It's pricing in Higher commodity prices, which is boosting the australian dollar, right? So any pull backs if you want to get Long on the australian dollar versus the us dollar Then, you know, that's what you want to do If not, then then you're looking for short trades Then I think that supply zone is decent for a short on the australian dollar And buying the us dollar but again personally not looking to trade this currency pair at all The divergence it while it's there. It's a lot tougher Fundamentally, so it's not really on my list of of currencies to trade moving on to the Aussie yen and again traders are a bit baffled by the fact that the australian dollar is going higher and um Again, there are nuances to every single risk environment. And in fact if we do go to the um Or where is it now one seconds ing March 2022 monthly economic update You'll see the relatively Relative ranking when it comes to the most affected Economies in the asia region and the least affected Yeah When it comes to again the russia ukraine war and what you'll see is that japan Actually, um, it says Before I get to that says relative ranking table most affected at the top and least affected at the bottom So the most affected are japan. Yeah With a rank of 4.75 and the least affected at the moment is australia. Yeah So when you look at that divergence from a risk perspective, yes, you know, you're seeing um generally the the japanese yen should want to You know increase in value when it comes to it being a safe haven um Play currency play but from the from a from a from a I guess a nuanced perspective The australian dollar at least Affected out of the two plus you've got the you know the the fact that you have commodity prices rising Which you know adds value and demand to the australian dollar So that's the reason why you're seeing this occur So really if you think that you know, this is going to continue to occur Then any pullbacks will be decent buying opportunities, right? If you are looking at potential sales and buying the japanese yen then Then you're pretty much looking at this area The 85 round numbers round number where we are right now and zooming out a little bit I guess probably yeah the the market highs the recent market highs around that 86 um sent 86 25 Area and that's buying the the the japanese yen But I do think the power for these resistance is still going to continue to the upsides And especially in a risk if if risk starts to come more back on then off and Finally looking at gold and gold, you know making a tear as expected Again, many traders were were moaning and complaining and saying well, why is gold? You know come down and things like that Again, the market doesn't go up and move up in a straight line, right? It just allows the smart money to start to you know buy more at a cheaper price, right? So prices are pretty much moved in about a week 18 from the lows at 18 78 back up to you know, 1970s Right while retail traders are complaining the moaning and about fundamental analysis not working The fundamentals are working just fine. Just just just just fine So here we are and Again as risk starts to escalate still you can see Really where you want to be looking for a buy trade and again any pullbacks into those demand zones potentially You know are buying opportunities if you think that you know things are not going to get resolved anytime soon from this From a Short in perspective a supply zone perspective. You've got several zones. Let me just clear this up. I guess Probably from here to around where we are now. Yep there and then you've got another All-time high which is going to be here supply zone So again the continued conflicts should push the price of gold higher If there is again a bit of a A resolution then you're probably expecting a sell at some point But also as well be aware that the that gold does react to dollar strength or weakness And another contributing factor to potential gold strength will be you know rising inflation as well But I think gold at the moment is being driven by The increased risk of sentiment. Anyways guys, that's it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the analysis And like I said, don't forget to like subscribe and share This video with your with your trading colleagues if you have any and take care and I'll speak to you all soon