 Good morning and welcome to the Monday market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 17th of February 2020 and the time is just gone, 1010 GMT. And it's been a fairly positive start to the European trading session. The major European indices are showing slight gains, very modest gains, but the gains that we're seeing in Europe at the moment are relatively small to the fairly large gains that we saw in China. Essentially, given the deepening health crisis in relation to the coronavirus in China, the Chinese authorities have come out and made it clear that they're going to go down the route of supporting the economy. So there's talk that the people's bank of China, the Chinese central bank, is going to inject further liquidity into the market. On top of that, there's also talk about a tax cut being proposed as well as a way of encouraging economic activity. And it's not just China that this is going on in relation to governments intervening. There's also talk that Singapore, the government of Singapore is also going to have some sort of stimulus package in relation to, potentially in relation to cutting taxes as a way of assisting the economy. And with this, we did see a decent move to the upside in Chinese stocks overnight. And that positive sentiment has all flowed over to the European session, although the gains in Europe are fairly small. Also, in the last 24 hours, 48 hours, we had some pretty awful growth figures out of Japan. In the fourth quarter, the Japanese economy contracted on a quarterly basis by 6.3%, which is quite sizable. Much worse than the contraction of 3.7%, that was expected. So this was driven by a consumption tax that helped really clobbered growth in the last three months of 2019. And with such a deep contraction in growth, there's already kind of chatter about, could we be potentially looking at a recession in Japan? It's all the big stories over the past 24 hours, 48 hours. Today's trading session is going to be fairly quiet. The European markets are going to be fairly quiet. This is because in the US, they have a public holiday. It's President's Day, so the New York Stock Exchange is closed. And whenever you have a European trading session with the US closed, trading volumes and volatility are tend to be very low. So today's session is likely to be fairly quiet. But keep in mind the strong gains that we saw in Asia overnight, in China, particularly, should translate into kind of a positive sentiment for the rest of the trading week. Well, quickly now, take a look at the big events of the week ahead. The weekly article can be found on our website, cmsomarkets.com, under insights, under news and analysis. This is where you'll find the article. Take a quick run through of the major corporate stories and economic events of the week, and then look at some of the big, most popular markets, indices, currencies, and commodities. So today, well, to my technically speaking, because it's an Australian, it's a jewellery, a jewellery company. PHP have first-time figures. They'll be out at nighttime, UK time or Monday morning on the morning of Tuesday the 18th of February, morning time out of Australia. Tomorrow, we will have the full year figures from HSBC. This is going to be interesting because the bank makes a large portion of its money from the far east, giving us going on in relation to the health crisis in China, and also the political unrest in Hong Kong in recent months. That's going to be of interest. On the next few days, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, we have quite a few important economic indicators of the UK. We've got employment wages, we have retail, we have CPI, and also we have retail sales. On Wednesday, we'll have Canadian CPI. On Wednesday, we will have the minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting last month, where rates were kept on hold, meeting expectations. On Thursday, we have full year figures from Lloyds. We have full year figures from Anglo-American. On Friday at the back end of the week, we'll have the very different flash manufacturing and service PMI reports from basically the major European economies and also the US. And then also, finally on Friday, we'll have first quarter figures from DEAR. You might know them as the Frederick John Deere tractors and what I view. We'll take a look now at what's going on on the FTSE 100. So broadly speaking, in the last few months, the FTSE 100 has been pushing higher. But the FTSE has definitely underperformed, compared to, say, some of the stock markets of Europe and particularly those of the US. The FTSE 100 has a disproportionately large amount of exposure to mining stocks and oil and gas stocks. And with that, because they've been clobbered on account of what's going on in the fierce round in China, the FTSE 100 hasn't done as well. I say the DAX or the S&P 500, which should be coming onto in a minute. So the broad trend, after the last number of months, since October onwards, has been at the upside. But we can see here, the FTSE 100 is back below the blue line here, the 50 moving average in around 7,500. In around 7,500. If you can hold above this red line, the tourney moving average, which comes to play at 7,366, if you can hold above that, it's likely that the wider upward trend could continue. I should that be the case. We could, like, retesting the mid-fabrile highs here in around 7,562. And if you go beyond that, we could, like, be targeting this area here, excuse me, in around 7,600. If, on the other hand, we do have a size of break below the tourney moving average here, this red line here, that could set us back towards the late January lows in this area here, in around 7,232. And if you go beyond that, we could be heading back down towards 7,200. Notice how we differ a bit of consolidation in that zone of the past. So it makes it more likely that area will be of importance in the future. Over in Germany, the tax is in very good shape, not a million miles from all-time higher territory. This is what I mean about how the FTSE is languishing in comparison to the tax and also the S&P, which I'll show you in a few minutes. So if you take a look at the price action throughout February with the aggressive sell-off on the back of the coronavirus fears from early February onwards via the Chinese authorities assisting the Chinese economy. We've seen a jolt higher in the tax. It's been driving higher. We've set all-time highs. We're not too far away from all-time highs at the moment. So if we do press on higher from here, we could be targeting $13,800, $900, and then, of course, $14,000 would be the next big psychological number. Should we see a pullback in the stock, support could be found in this zone here down around $13,640 down to $13,600. And even if you go below that, the upward trend is still likely to be in play. If you do go below that, this area here, in around $13,400, could potentially act as support. We can see in a few occasions, that area, or maybe just south of it, acted as support in the past, so it makes it more likely that that area will be of importance in the future. It's only really, I think, a slice of break below this blue line here, the fifth of the moving average, could then we begin to think, maybe the wide-ropper trend has come to an end. I'll take a look at what's going on in the US. Like I said, US stock market, the actual equities will remain closed today as of present day, but the futures are trading for a number of hours, but I suspect volumes are going to be low and trading ranges are going to be narrow. But this is another good example of how strong the US markets are. It's only last week, we're setting all the tile highs on the likes of the Dow Jones, so we're still very much in the kind of strong upward trend. If you do press on higher from here, we could look at retesting the recent all-time high in around 29,506 there, thereabouts at best sort of zone. And if you press on higher beyond that, we could be targeting 29,607,800, so on and so forth. If you do look to have a fairly decent move to the downside, support could come into play in around 29,000 or the mid-February lows in around 28,924. And even if you go below that, the 50 moving average, this blue line here in around 28,770 there, thereabouts, that could potentially act as support as well. I'll take a look now at the S&P 500. It's a fairly similar position, where it's in an all-time high recently, and the wider upward trend is still very much in play. So the upward trend is still very much in play, but the next big level to watch out for will be 3,400. Should you see a pullback from these levels, support could be found in around this area, 3,360, down to 3,350, there, thereabouts. And it's essentially why we hold above this area, 3,300. If you can hold above that metric, it's likely that the wider upward trend is gonna continue. And even if you don't, even if you break below that, this blue line here, the 50 moving average, acted nicely as support in late January, early February. So even if you head below 3,300, we could look at finding support from this area here, the 50 moving average, and that comes into play in around 3,265. So we'll take a look at some big currencies now, currency pair starting off at the Euro dollar. The Euro had a pretty terrible week last week. Last week, Euro dollar fell to its lowest level since May 2017. So we're not too far off, a three year low on Euro dollar. And to be honest, there was no real kind of catalyst that really kind of sparked that massive sell off. It was possibly more down the dollar strength, but it just got chipped away and chipped away. And as we can see the last few months, since basically the end of December, it has been a nice example of the downward trend on the Euro dollar. Like I said, we hit over a two and a half year low, nearly a three year low on Friday. We have much to rebound, this ever saw slightly amount of ground. If we can hold above the Friday's low, we could see a better profit taking, push the market higher from here. We could head back up towards 109, or this area here in that one spot, 0925 as a potential area of resistance. But keep in mind, like I said, we hit a level last seen in May, 2017. So the trend is clearly pretty much to the downside. So if we do press a lower from here, we could be lucky heading back down towards one spot, zero weight. Aturcal look now, what's going on on the pound versus the US dollar. We saw a decent increase in volatility last week on the shock announcement. That said, David stepped down as chancellor of the exception in the UK. And the new chancellor is the relatively unknown, Rishi Sunak. And it's, initially there was a negative reaction to the news, but then afterwards, traders took the view that Mr. Sunak is probably more likely to be influenced by Boris Johnson. And, you know, there's been speculation that Prime Minister Johnson is keen to have some sort of spending spree, some sort of Trump style spending spree to kind of reinvigorate the British economy. A lot of uncertainty is hanging over the British economy in relation to the UK and leaving the European Union. And the question still remains, what's the relationship going to look like with the European Union app in the transition period? So there's talk, excuse me, Prime Minister Johnson wants to kind of have some sort of a spending spree. And Mr. Sunak could be the man to deliver that via the budget with the due out next month. So we can see here, even when we did have a move to the downside recently, this day last week on a pound dollar, it received support nicely from the one-third day movie average along here. This is the other line. While we hold above that, we could look to continue to press on higher. I should be pressing higher from here. We could be looking at retesting this area here in just north of one spot 32. And the movie on that could take us up towards the late December highs in one spot 32, 84. But on the flip side, if you do take out the lows on the scene on the 10th of February, we could head back down towards this area here in around one spot 27, 68. I'll take a look now at some of the big commodities, starting off with gold. So gold hit a multi-year high at the beginning of the year. At large, you've been trading range balance in the same. But still, as you can see here, the wider train, this is very much in play. So if we do press on higher from here, we could be looking at retargeting the highs of early February in around 1593. And the movie on that could take this potential towards 1600. If you do drift lower, support might be found in this zone here in around 1560. And even if you go above that, support could be found from this area here, the lows of mid-January in around 1536, which actually coincides with this blue line here, the fifth of the movie average. And notice all that metric active nicely as both resistance and support in December. And the metric has been important in the past. It makes it more likely it'll be important in the future, although there are no guarantees. And lastly, I should come on to the oil market. And oil has had a terrible time recently. China is the largest importer of the energy in the world. And with all the fears surrounding what's going on, the coronavirus, traders have been very worried that China's demand or appetite for oil is going to dwindle. So we've seen some major declines in all of the last few weeks, although we do appear to be staging something of a comeback. So if you take a look here, we fell on the last week, we saw levels that work at 13 month lows are clearly very bearish, but we did see a fairly decent rebound in the last week. We did see a fairly decent move to the upside on the unbrained crude oil. I'll take a look at it on a weekly chart and see what it looks like there. So this candle here has the potential to be a bullish weekly reversal. So we could look to get a press on higher from here, and should that be the case, we could head back control with the kind of psychology important 60 bucks a barrel. We can also see that this red line here is the 200 week moving average because I'm looking at the weekly chart. That metric acted nicely as a support on a few occasions and resistance as well. So that metric in a 60 spot 86 might, could potentially be an area for resistance should be pressed on higher from here. So keep a line of that. If on the other hand, if the market doesn't manage to kind of a full rebound, perhaps it could just kind of push a few dollars higher before it turns over on itself and then falls back into the wider downward trend. It should be fall lower from here. It could take us back to this zone here in round 53 spot 76. And below that, could take us back down towards the 52 area. That was Brent crude. It's a similar ish looking story with WTI similar story here whereby we've had a creta sell-off between early January until early February, but we have been rebounding higher from here. We can see a steady increase in positive momentum. So if the market does manage to push on higher, we could look at targeting this zone here in round 54 in the near term should the rebound continue. But if market does manage to turn over on itself yet again, we could look at heading back below 51, back below 50 and pitch it down towards the lowest scene beginning of the month in around 49 spot 29. And if you go beyond that, we could look in the head down towards 49 and 48, so on and so forth. That is this for this video of this particular week. Have a good trading week and good luck.