 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me. David Madden today's date is Monday the 26th of October 2020 and the time has just gone 1050 GMT and It's been a fairly negative start to the European trading session We essentially have major concerns renewed concerns about the health crisis rising number of case levels in many European countries also It's it's quite a nasty looking situation in in the US some states have been hit harder than others with the Rise in number of cases has also come tighter restrictions the most extreme example The Spanish government has announced a set of emergency We've we've already seen tighter localized restrictions here in the UK same goes The top of restrictions in terms of curfews and whatnot in the likes of France and Italy So we have seen a kind of a quite a sour shift in sentiment in the in the last Comparing fright comparing Monday morning with Friday Things are looking really really reasonably negative What's also in the mix as always The kind of two-ing and fro-ing on the political front both the EU UK But also on the Democrats and the Republicans in the US It's usual story with the United States traders are probably growing largely skeptical that a Coronavirus relief package will be achieved between the Democrats and the Republicans before No before the 3rd of November, which is the date of the US presidential election But of course over the weekend we heard from Nancy Pelosi of the Democrats that it's still possible but we've been hearing that line for quite some time now and No and a deal has yet to be achieved on the bright side and The European Union's negotiating team who are supposed to depart London yesterday Announced that they were going to be staying on in the UK and continuing talks Until Wednesday, so that has been seen as a positive sign Obviously, there's no just because you're hanging around longer Doesn't necessarily mean that he's going to be greatly achieved But it's all about the optics if they're if there's if they're staying around longer It suggests that progress has been made things have gotten a bit quiet on that front as well in terms of What both sides are saying? Usually that's a sign that you know, they're really getting down to business no guarantees but it's when you're when you're hearing on a regular basis individuals from both sides making statements or or else people close to the talks are Passing on what they've heard that's normally a sign that progress hasn't been made when it's a bit when things are required Or that's often the indication that things are heading in the right direction So of all the stuff that that's going on It would seem that things are heading ever so slightly in the right direction with regards to the UK EU trade talks That's the kind of major topics of the Marcus today Let's take a look now at the week ahead article the way the week ahead article can be found on a website CMC Marcus calm under insights under latest news and analysis First off the bat BP the the major oil Titan. They have third quarter numbers coming up tomorrow We also have an update from HSBC. Keep in mind on Friday. Just gone. We will receive numbers from Barclays So that that that I really given a nice boost to British banking stocks on Friday. Just gone with bread The owner of the the hotel crowd. They have numbers coming out tomorrow as well On Thursday, we have third quarter figures coming out from Amazon This is going to be very much in focus one of the real benefactors of the COVID-19 crisis in that they're an online retail giant And their business was able to continue on Despite all the kind of the upsets and the chaos caused by the pandemic We have fourth quarter numbers coming out from Apple also on Thursday Thursday, that's also a fairly busy day because we have a intrafit decision from both the Bank of Japan and also The European Central Bank speaking of busy busy sessions Thursday is also going to be a day when we have third quarter numbers out from Facebook The tech giant social media giant has obviously performed very well in terms of advertising in the last two years It's managed to get a lot of eyeballs on the screen as it were in terms of its social media app And with that it's managed to successfully drag away advertising revenues revenues from traditional houses and more towards the likes of themselves At the back end of the week, we have an update in terms of Quality of results from both Lloyd's and Nat West Group Nat West Group informally being rollback of Scotland Also, we have UK nor mortgage approval numbers and net consumer credit from out on Thursday On Friday, we have the French and German and Eurozone wide third quarter GDP numbers and also finally we have the US spending number Potatoes, we'll be looking at the at the US spending numbers and go and assessing our Americans going out and actually spending money So that's going to be the real gauge of consumer confidence because sometimes Consumer confidence reports indicates indicates this that the other but ultimately it's not about what you'd say in a survey It's about what you actually do And that that'd be the real kind of asset test for for for the effort is for the for consumption in the US economy For those of you who regularly follow the video I do the Asian run through I'll go to the big indices I'll go to the big currency pairs, and then I go to the big commodities. So starting off with the first 100 The wider view the footsie sold off aggressively because the pandemic February and March rebound of a March into Into June but since then we've been in a fairly clear cut example of a downward trend for while We've seen you have a series of lower lows and lower highs In fact the lows we saw at the back end of last week and Thursday I was the lowest level achieved since May. So we are you know, it is kind of quite worried when you hit a multi-month low So we're still very much in the kind of the wider downward trend of the past few months if we can Hold above the recent lows. We could look at heading back towards this blue line here the fifth at a moving average That comes in the play at 5,948 if you're gonna be on that we could be heading towards the Psychologically important 6,000 and if you take a 6,000 we could be looking at retesting the highs of mid-october in around 6,041 but like I said the wider downward trend is still very much in play So if the market does manage to turn over on itself again And if you do take out the recent lows the lows of last week, which are which are in around 5,000 715 if you do take out that level it could take us back down towards this zone here in a 5,660 and a move below that could take us down towards 5,600 Looking at what's going on over in Germany The tax has been pretty has been hit pretty hard today one of its one of its Stolwurt's SAP the SAP the the software company Basically trimmed its forecast and had a major sell-off and that that has kind of rattled the entire German market today Or at least kind of added to the overall bearishness of the German market and the German market Enjoyed a nice rebound between from the same from March Through to September in fact the highs it achieved in September where the highs it the highest level In a bin at basically since the pandemic really took hold so Under under recently the the tax was in pretty good shape, but since September The highs of late September didn't take out the highs in mid-September We've had a lower low a lower high and now another lower low So we saw how the foot has been in a fairly clear cut downtrend since since June The DAX is appears to be turning over on itself and seeing as we enter this that is low as Has now been the lowest level since early August. We could be looking, you know, it would seem to me that we The DAX is turning over on itself If you do drift lower from here support could be found from this red line here the Trinity moving average Which comes into play at twelve thousand one hundred and twenty six notice how it acted nicely as support Here in late July and if a metric has been important in the past It makes it more likely it'll be of importance in the future Although there are no guarantees if you do drop below the Trinity moving average the next ever to keep on our for will be 12,000 it's gonna be a big number and if you notice here, we did see a bit of support coming to play or just south of it That area in late June Now keep in mind the broader trend is to the upside the broader the bottom move for the last few months has been to the upside So that wider trend does continue if you get out and if you do press on higher from here We could go ahead retest this blue line here the fifth at a moving average which comes to play at twelve thousand 921 if you go beyond that 13,000 will be the next big number to keep an eye out for and should we retake 13,000 keep an eye out then for the highs of mid-october Which are in around thirteen thousand one hundred and ninety one And in the interim the immediate next potential area of resistance could be from the water to move the average Which is it comes to play at twelve thousand seven hundred and sixty two and notice on a few occasions the market It is not perfectly as support because a few occasions it traded below Threaded through the one-day moving average But but more often than not if on a few occasions it traded below it only to close above it yet again So keep an eye out for the one hundred a moving average should we see any rebounds on the decks? Going across the pond to the USA starting off with the Dow Jones We are decent move to the upside between between late March Into September in fact the highs that were achieved in September were the highs basically since the pandemic set in but we didn't retest the old Tom highs but we got reasonably close and Since September we've had a bit of a correction So you've had the lower low the lower high the lower low and the move higher again And the highs that we saw in the middle of October got reasonably close to the high to the multi-month highs that were set in September But they didn't quite get there The market has been drifting a bit lower at least yet again We're pretty much in around this blue line here the 50 moving average which comes into play at 28,045 If you can hold above The 50 moving average or you know, 28,000 the kind of big number itself It's likely that the kind of broader upward trend of the last few months is going to continue And if you press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting the highs of mid-October in around 28,958 and if you go beyond that we could be looking at targeting the highs of early September Which are much which were multi-month highs If you do have a break lower below the fifth of the moving average here this blue line We could be looking at retesting this yellow line the 100 moving average and that comes into play at 27,263 and notice how the 100 moving average acted nicely as support in late September and once again if metric has been of importance in the past It could be significant in the future That was the Dow Jones. Let's take a look at the S&P 500 So when the S&P 500 had enjoyed a solid rally From basically late March onwards the highs it achieved in September We're actually all-time high so it's by far. It's a by far. They are the strongest market of the four major indices I've just looked at so it hit a all-time high in September Then we did pull back with a lower low a lower high a lower low It has been moving higher yet again Excuse me the highs that were achieved Like with the Dow Jones the highs ever achieved in October didn't quite retest the all-time highs But we've drifted lower again from that nicely some active It would be a received nice support from this blue line the 50 movie average in at 4 3410 while we hold above that metric is likely we could see the broader uptrend continue I should that be the case. We could be looking at targeting 3500 a movie on that could reach could head has had his CS headed heading back towards the mid October highs in around 3549 and if you take all that we could be looking at retesting the highs of Early September if you do drop below the 50 moving average this area here in around 3341 my active support and if you go below that Support could commit to play and this yellow line the one-day moving average notice how it acted nicely support Similar to the Dow Jones was it received my support in late September So it could be an air it could be an area of a future support Should we see a move to the downside and that comes in the plan in around? 3306 Take a look now. It's going to the big currency pairs starting off with the euro versus the US dollar The broader trend has been to the upside the highest that euro dollar hit in early September With actually this highest level in over two years So it's clearly quite bullish. And then what do we see? We saw the market trade trade sideways had a move to the downside So, you know, it's not exactly a major surprise to see a correction or a pullback after you've hit a multi-year high But since late September, what have you seen? We've seen a move in of a higher high a higher low and another higher high So it seems that the kind of the broader uptrend in euro dollars continuing in the last few sessions We've been holding above this blue line here the fifth of the moving average in at one spot 17 97 If you can continue to hold above that metric, we could see the kind of broader uptrend continue I should that be the case We could be looking heading up towards the kind of 120 zone just north of 120, which we saw in early September Moving the downside if we do have a decent break below the fifth of the moving average We could be looking at retesting the lows of mid October in around one spot 1684 and a move below that could take us back down toward this area here in at one spot 16 12 And if you do have a decent move below that we could be like heading out towards the one 14 zone But you know that's we would need to see a fairly significant move below the late September low That's your daughter take a look at pound dollar So we talked about how Euro dollar achieved its highest level than over two years in the early September In early September pound dollar hit its highest level in about seven in about nine months If the levels that were achieved here are with the highest since the that it since December 2019 So it's you know over eight month high nearly a nine month high and then what we thought to be see afterwards You know we saw a move at the downside for what we're about being a lower low a lower high and another lower low But since then we've been kind of pushing higher whereby we've had a higher high higher low higher high higher low another higher high in fact only Last Wednesday we hit its highest level in about six weeks. We've retreated a little since then But but if you can hold above the 130 mark It's likely that we could see the kind of broader upward trend of the last few weeks continue Should that be the case? We could be like me heading up towards, you know one spot 32 or for this area here in a one spot 32 69 and if you go beyond that we could then be looking at retesting one spot 35 15 and the last time we saw one third one spot 35 15 was the highs of December 2019 Even if you do drop below one spot 30 This yellow line here the one hundred a movie average in a one spot 28 62 that could act as support because you know we have been We have seen a few occasions In the last few months where that we saw some consolidation in around that area there And that was only in September and also that acted nicely as we saw both support and resistance In in June and July so keep an eye on the one hundred a movie average as well Coming out on two commodities starting off with gold So gold had a Very bullish run from March up until August in August it achieved an all-time high It is very quickly moved lower after that all-time high So we had the the lower low we had the lower high it should its sideways There were a range bound for a number of for a number of weeks for a couple of months Then we had another we had a lower low the lows of September took up the lows of August But since then we've been broadly been pushing higher now It hasn't really made any aggressive move to the upside But we have seen the market push higher the last and basically Since late September in the last few weeks notice how it's made its It's it's failed on To break above the 50 moving average just blue line here in a one spot Sorry 1921 If you do press on higher from here and we retake 1921 We could then be looking at heading it back up toward the highs of mid-September in a 1973 And if you go beyond that we could look in the kind of psychology important 2000 mark and then if you go beyond 2000 we can then be looking at heading up towards We could be heading towards the highs of mid-October so mid-October at mid-August in that 2015 Notice how the fifth movie average acted nicely as support Back in June so and on yet again in September so This could be we could be approaching a fairly significant metric, but the same time It's also possible that we could approach the fifth and moving average and then turn over on ourselves yet again And should that be the case and should we drop back below 1900? We could look headed back down towards this yellow line here the 100 a movie average and that comes into play in it 1883 and a move below that could take us back down towards the lows of late September in at 1848 and the decent break below that Could take us back down towards 1800 Lastly now taking a look at all the oil contract the oil market start looking at a brink crude oil December contract so The you know the moves you see an oil tent often tend to be Connected to the perception about the health of the global economy and global demand so all of them had a major rebound From from April into August the highs it achieved in August where the highest ever to see achieved Basically since March when the kind of pandemic was really at its highest and since then kind of like stock markets We have seen a bit of have to come under pressure You know we've seen the lower low the lower high another lower low the market rebounded In the kind of middle of October, but notice how it failed to get above this blue line here the 50 movie average And it's been partially nudging lower the last few sessions in fact today. It's fell back to a level last scene In the first of in the first since the since early since early October, so we're back now kind of multi-week lows on On brain crude oil if you do press on lower from here We could look retesting the lows of early October in at 38 about 79 And if you go below that we could be like you're heading down toward this area here in around 36 dollars a barrel On the flip side if they're kind of broader upward trend does continue We first need to kind of take out this this blue line here the 50 movie average in at 43 spot on one And if you go beyond that we could be like you're targeting the kind of 44 area And then if you go beyond that because like you're heading up towards the 46 zone and they kind of highs that were achieved in August itself That's all from this video. Thank you for listening. Have a good training week and good luck