 Hi there, I'm Anthony Chung and I'm the head of market analysis here at Amplify Trading. Every weekday morning, I'll deliver a fundamental rundown ahead of the European Open. But if you subscribe to the channel, you'll also get content from the rest of the team. So, let's begin. Okay, very good morning to everyone. Hope you're doing well. Got these guys with me this morning because I'm going to give you a bit of a run through of the first of the three face-to-face US presidential debates that will happen before the US election in November. And I'll run you through what people are going to be looking for and generally my take about how the markets might react. But we'll get into that in a moment. First of all, let's just have a look at the overall charts and what's going on. And Asia markets traded mostly higher, although the region overall struggled to make the most of the firm tailwinds that we saw with the firmer close on Wall Street. Just wanted to have a quick look at the US indices here. You can see the NASDAQ future and the S&P in the center and right our minor positives this morning. But a decent session yesterday, I mean the climb that we've seen certainly from where we finished last week through yesterday's session, a really solid upward move. Obviously yesterday, a lot of talk about now Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats looking to come forward with the stimulus and actually releasing a scow back 2.2 trillion proposal to extend support to the US economy, seeking to break that impasse with Republicans on COVID-19 relief. So House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Stephen Manchin, they are having talked last night going to be speaking again today. So that's been one of the things that's kind of fallen away last week and did contribute I think to a large portion of the downside as the focus was so much on the Supreme Court. But now we've had Amy Coney Barrett announced. We can kind of move back to then the pressing subject for markets, which is how quickly can the next round of stimulus come. And certainly we are moving back into the direction of at least dialogue between the two sides. So here then looking at the S&P, I did tweet my handles here. If you ever on the other screen, it will come up in a moment if you ever did want to follow me, but I was tweeting some charts last night because I just happened to be on my desk before the end of the day. And I was just looking at really this 50 DMA area, which has been really solid level for the S&P 500. You can see from a point of support going back to June to some of that price action that we had early September. And then where we were in yesterday's session, it really was a cap before the futures closed. We've opened at around that level. So I'm quite interested to see how we perform here. Above here, we have got the 21 DMA, which has also been the top side of the area that's confided the price activity before the breakdown that we saw on the developments of the renewed kind of strict restrictions from the UK and Europe, given the outbreaks we're seeing with COVID-19 at the moment. So if we do continue on the upside, I'd just be mindful of that 21 DMA today. Any further break above there than 33.97 and a half, the 3400 level that is that previous all-time high, of course, that we had back in February starts to bring in some of those previous highs in mid-August as well. Any further pull back if there were to be one, then be looking for just retracement back to some of the gains that we saw in the prior day session towards that those previous highs. So just notched that up a touch to around here, probably 33.21, 3.25 level, which was that spike low that we had in 17th and the highs that we had following that gap down at the recommencement of trade on the 21st. But the 50 DMA has been really key. Where it closes today, why they're above or below, I think will be quite important from a technical perspective. And then if we were looking at the NASDAQ, that was something as well as watching just last night, given how positive the gains were on Wall Street yesterday. And here's a look at the 21 DMA. And again, that was providing a bit of near term resistance last night, but we have opened above that point. So if that's a bullish signal and seeing how the day plays out, then upside the next level of real clear resistance doesn't really come until that double top that we printed going back to the 10th of September, 16th of September. Now I'd have to come in at 11, 5, 67 on the upside. So a little bit of headroom for further gains in the NASDAQ from a technical point of view if we remain above those key levels. But I did tweak them if you want to see those charts and those levels in more detail with the chart annotations. Otherwise elsewhere then, the DAX did open up, followed suit, but it's just drifted a little bit lower back down towards the kind of late afternoon session kind of range. Elsewhere in the currency markets, the Dixie's pretty flat. And overall, that's reflected in Eurodollar, but Cable still an outperformer and a decent move yesterday in Cable. And we're going to talk about that because there's been some more Times newspaper updates on the Brexit situation. And just to be aware of the times have been particularly good, both at the weekend and overnight in breaking the latest Brexit scoops. So a couple of words advice or tips, whatever you want to call it. One thing I would do in this type of situation is I would look at two things really. What is the newspaper breaking these latest comments? Because then I'd want to just be more mindful of being vigilant to monitor that particular news source, but then separately as well. The idea then that who is the actual journalist writing these reports? And are they in fact on platforms like Twitter? And could I be exposed to getting information quicker via that rather than officially via the Times? Or do they just tweet more often? So rather than just a one set piece article coming out of the Times, I can get drip fed some more insights as these stories are developing. So a couple of things there, perhaps it can give you an edge if we if you were to obtain information more fast in that form. But we'll talk about Brexit in a second. Elsewhere WCI crude, a little bit lower. There's a few people that were looking at the latest estimate for the the upcoming infantry numbers, which are potentially going to show a build. And that could be the first time in three weeks. And so as such, then a little bit of pressure in the overnight session for crude, but nothing too pronounced to be quite frank. And we're just hugging pivot in the futures here down 26 cents 4034. And T notes just sideways for the time being. All right, well, let's get stuck into it. And let's talk about this debate. A lot of a lot of people obviously awaiting this. It is not just symbolic being the first, but it does tend to carry quite a lot of enhanced influence over then voters. And one thing I was reading last night is that a lot of the way that a US election works is very different from how it does in here at the UK, for example. And that being that some states have already opened their their balloting, their voting to be mailed in. So what that can mean, then, is that some people might even vote directly after debate one, for example, that is a possibility in some specific areas in America. So it really is crucial from now forward that these guys are doing everything that they can to secure these votes from now onward really. But the first one does tend to set the kind of tone. And it tends to be the most impactful. And I guess it kind of diminishes once they go through the second and third, because that first time out really sets the precedence. So there's a couple things here. For one, this isn't going to happen until the middle of the night, if you're based in London. So if you're based in London, one of the things to be aware of then is that this isn't happening until I think it translates into BST time till 2am in the morning. It's going to go on for 90 minutes. So really, it's not until we come in the following morning around this sort of time, I'm doing the briefing, that we're going to know the actual result and the general feedback. Generally, what happens is, as much as if you watch it live, you get a general sense of how it went for each of the candidates, there'll also be kind of almost like an exit poll, there'll be people, market commentators talking about it. And that will give you a pretty good flavor as well by the time we come in tomorrow. Markets will be closed then. I mean, electronic trade will be open, of course. So would there be a need to stay up overnight? I guess could be a question I might get from one of the guys later on this morning. I don't think so. I think if this goes as per, I guess, the base case scenario, which is Trump probably comes across perhaps a little bit better, but Biden's not a disaster. I think that's actually the status quo. And I don't think it was going to bump the polls too much in either way. If that is the case, that would be my baseline expectation. I guess the biggest things are the biggest risk here is a complete mental inability for Biden to handle the truth in terms of not handle the truth, but handle the moment is a better phrase, I guess. And if he has a mental pause of too long, that's going to be absolutely jumped on by Trump, not just there and then, but also in the follow up to that debate, those videos will go viral. And that's going to only enhance them this whole rhetoric about his mental agility and capability. So I see that as one of the biggest risks. And that would then severely close. I think the gap in the polling, if he's going to be found out in that way. And the other thing as well, I'll run you through a couple of points that we're looking at is just how much practice they've had, I think is a really telling point. You know, anyone who's ever given a speech, or who's ever spoken in the public forum, you know, practice is everything. And Trump has been out and about talking to press. He's been doing campaign rallies. He's been on TV interviews, whereas Biden really has been quite bunkered down. And so this is his first real big outing for quite some time. Now that's not to say that he hasn't been, you know, the benefit that Biden would have had is he hasn't had presidential commitments to run a country day to day. So he's had more time to prepare almost. So there's pros and cons. But certainly, you know, just being in the moment is something which Trump typically tends to kind of thrive in despite his slightly peculiar vocabulary. He tends to pull out every now and again. So a couple of top level things there, but let's get a little bit more definitive on key points. So I kind of broken this down into really five or six different areas to keep an eye on in the debate. One is flashpoints. Now, what could be areas of potential that could flare up this debate and really become quite heated and therefore, does someone make a misstep and someone and how do they manage that kind of confrontation. Trump taxes. Of course, we had the New York Times come out talking about basically how little tax he's paid and he's lost lots of money. And again, this is definitely goes as is a concerted attack from the Democrats. You could say coming from that type of political leaning newspaper to try and then target one of the main things that Trump relies upon, which is this idea and perception that he tries to give the public of being a successful businessman. That would be quite the opposite. So the Trump taxes, the peaceful transfer of power, that comment that Trump made about a week ago saying that he wouldn't kind of go away quietly. He's probably going to be pressed on that. And then Amy Coney Barrett, the replacement for in the Supreme Court that we've had for Ginsburg. And that being quite a shift then towards the right from the political stance, but also then what that could mean as a tangible outcome for this upcoming election. This is likely to be quite a big talking point. The other thing then is about Biden. We've really really talked about that Biden himself avoiding any verbal mishaps. He has got a bit of a track record of doing that. And as I said, he's only done limited amounts of events recently. So he might be a bit rusty on that front. I was reading a couple of other things as well. And they were talking about he can sometimes become a little bit snappy. He calls it the Irish side. When he comes out, he gets a bit bitey on responses when he becomes a bit frustrated and a bit agitated. And if that comes out, I think that's going to be a big negative. Because I think that persona definitely lands well with the electorate for Trump. I think the better strategy for Biden is to be almost the opposite. Complete control, assured, presidential. And I think he would come out more favourably. But can he keep that when he's going to be under heavy attack from Trump, of course? Owning it is another area. And this is basically referring to voters. Typically, the data would suggest they like to see a president who takes responsibility. The good, the bad, the ugly. And obviously things like COVID-19 is going to be very important. Just given the implications that's had on just human day-to-day life, of course, in America and how he handled that. And that's going to be obviously a real pressing point that Biden's going to be trying to make, given the large scale of number of deaths, cases, and also unemployment levels as well in America. Twisting the truth, we know Trump loves a little bending of the truth. And so can Biden turn into a real-time fact checker? Now this really would be at the most agile mentally that Biden could possibly be. So this is the question point, can he achieve that status? If he can, he could really undo Trump quite spectacularly because Trump does tend to come out with a number of statements which just are not factually true. And if Biden can just be absolutely pinpoint-sharp to, you know, come back with with pure facts in his rebuttals, then he could absolutely quite dominate this discussion in that sense. So whether or not he can do it though is the question. So the subject matter again, just so we're all on point, they're going to be talking about the candidates' previous records, the Supreme Court, the coronavirus pandemic, the economy. Big one for Trump is race and violence, law and order in US cities, and then the integrity of the election. These are all subjects that have been confirmed by the debate commission. So these are definitely going to be covered. So it's going to be all the key things that we'd want to hear. At the moment in terms of how the land lies then, this is what we're looking at. We have seen really since the conventions that didn't really have too much of an impact for Biden, but did see a slight narrowing of the spread which was around 10 points if we were to go back around two months. The widest point of this spread really was when the Sun Belt regions in America were seeing that outbreak, but since Covid-19 has generally improved in America over the course of the last several weeks, we've started to see this gap close. So the current percentage point difference on the average RCP polls is 6.8 at the moment. When are the next ones, just so we have a little bit of foresight? So basically you've got the first presidential debate today and then the vice presidential debate. There's only one of those that's going to happen the following week. Then you get the second one on the 15th of Biden-Trump and then you get the third one on the 22nd of October and then the election on the third. So that's how the land lies at the moment. So yeah, hopefully that gives you a bit of a pointer of what to look out for. Okay, just having a look at Brexit then, obviously I mentioned the Pound had a really strong day yesterday. The latest in overnight session has been that European Union negotiators have signalled they are willing to begin work on a joint legal text of a trade agreement with the UK ahead of trade talks that resume today according to the Times. Barnier expects Britain's chief negotiator David Frost to provide more details of fishing quotas and the government's future subsidy policy, adding that the EU has also backed away from a threat to suspended trade and security talks. So it's a pretty meaningful progression there if these things are to be true. The one thing I tend to think about the whole Brexit saga as a whole, as much as there's been some disruptions and of course the House of Commons meets today about that internal market bill, it's all going on in the background and somewhat the backstop to these ongoing talks anyway not to actually be used. So I do think with the coronavirus situation, I was just watching the news last night and I was looking what was going on in France, in Paris and Marseille and these types of areas where they've had to actually basically shut down everything again for a period given the outbreaks that they've seen. I just think that not doing a deal is just not really economically feasible for either side at this point. So although I do not foresee perhaps a deal being done as soon as the 15th of October, which is what the initial timelines were presented by PM Johnson, I do think though by the end of October going into November perhaps even if it needs to go into December that something will inevitably get done. So at the moment we are I guess the markets reacted quite positively. So if I was thinking short-term intraday, these guys are meeting again today, they're meeting again Wednesday, they're meeting all week pretty much. So at the moment given the market positioning of the move yesterday with the general positivity in the tone coming out of the press, anything other now than positive comments and developments from here forward could impart a little bit of a pullback in cable as the way I'd kind of look at things. So I'd definitely be mindful of monitoring those usual UK British political journalists on Twitter for example, just keeping an eye out in the lights of the times, Telegraph, FT for any breaking developments on the Brexit headlines. Sticking with the UK, I thought this was quite an interesting comment that came out yesterday. Just wanted to quickly briefly mention because you remember we had Tenreiro, the NPC member talking in Telegraph at the weekend, something I talked about in the briefing yesterday and she was talking about the kind of the benefits of how other central banks have deployed negative interest rates and how generally effective it had been and that would be somewhat tipping the hat towards the idea that the Bank of England are very serious about contemplating using negative interest rates. But then this guy came out, this is Dave Ramston and he's no small fry. He is actually the deputy governor of the Bank of England and he voiced a strong opposition to setting negative rates saying he thought the benchmark could not be lowered any further without counter productive results. I mean that's a pretty resounding rebuttal to what Tenreiro said at the weekend. Reading between the lines here I think the Bank of England just basically want us to be crystal clear that if things get materially worse they will use negative rates but they want to be clear that that's not a predefined course at this point in time. And so I think they're just struggling a little bit to try and find a bit of a balancing act to hit that right tone. So you've had kind of Bailey saying something, walking it back he's kind of 30 centre ground now Tenreiro might have gone a step too far committing to it so Ramston's had to realign it back by talking basically just ruling it out completely. Now the reason why I think this is quite important is because Bailey is speaking later today at 3 p.m. London time so I've just been mindful of that if you're in a stunning position at that time in the afternoon and just in case he comes out and he looks to try and clarify it once again then we start to move the needle about the timings or likelihood of the bankers adopting that strategy. Okay quick look elsewhere I mentioned oil briefly I mean the move is relatively small we're only down 30 cents 40-28 at the moment but just backed off a little bit from the highs at 40-78 that was seen yesterday. US crude infantries probably rose one million barrels last week expanding for the first time in three weeks according to the latest Bloomberg survey that came out last night as this is going ahead in toward the infantry datas we'll get obviously tonight and then the DOE tomorrow. There's a few people looking on the demand side again symbolically global confirmed deaths from the coronavirus now has hit one million I don't think that's particularly new so I don't think that's a reason for crude to go lower however definitely the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and the tightening of restrictions in some regions definitely needs to be monitored ongoing for the time being because any further onerous restrictions are certainly going to start to impede just general activity whether that being just general consumer but obviously manufacturing travel all these types of things and so therefore the net consequence will start to impact impact the perception of demand so definitely more monitoring another headline I saw which again I just want to brief comment on is talking about the US China trade deal obviously pretty quiet on that at the moment overall but Bloomberg were punching the numbers their calculations based on customs administration data showed that the value of US goods bought by China declined for the previous months led by a slowdown in energy products by the end of August China had purchased about 32.8% of the four-year target of more than $170 billion you remember as part of that phase one trade agreement now this is what it looks like these were the purchases that China have done and so you can see it was incredibly small amount as they were going into the main part of the experiencing of a pandemic as you would imagine but then it has gradually increased every single month thereafter the problem is is that to hit that target by the end of the year they are a long way off at the moment so for me I mean Bloomberg are running this as quite a I guess a negative development as a spin they are trying to put on it that China are not adhering to their deal but for me I don't think they were ever going to hit the target you know they were just putting a figure out there it led to a phase one agreement materializing which is a positive development they then experienced an unscheduled unplanned epidemic at the time which impacted obviously their economic activity and we're experiencing a global pandemic right now which is impeding then just generally demand for goods so the idea that they've got to hit 200 for this deal to be deemed a success I think is not how I would perceive it to be I think even if they get to 50% by the end of the year or up to yeah 100 billion I think that they've done a job that I think will satisfy markets that this this deal at least between the U.S. and China can continue ongoing into 2021 Quick look at the calendar then for today we've already had one of the German state CPI is Norfheim Visfalia came in at minus 0.2% the only in minus 0.3% against previous minus 0.2% so nothing really too much to comment on we do get the German pan CPI then figured coming out later but keeping it out for those other German states just in case but generally they tend to follow in step with one another so perhaps not going to be particularly market moving UK net consumer credit mortgage approvals again not really a market mover neither are the the Eurozone confidence figures at 10 o'clock so then moving on really it's a it's an afternoon that will be in focus and as you can see then a lot of speakers here let me just zoom into that here's the speaker schedule for today Feds Williams twice Harker Clarida you know there's a number of fed speakers and in actual fact they are all voting members of the FMC so definitely worth bearing that in mind there's none of them are speaking this morning it's all in the afternoon and then you've also got Bank of England Governor Bailey as I mentioned at 3pm speaking on an online event as well as I said the US presidential debate is not going to happen until the overnight session so reality is it's not going to be until you come in tomorrow morning that we'll really see where the land lies with that but just finishing off then looking at the charts I guess my overall perception on today is the actual economic calendar is relatively quiet we had quite a big day yesterday in equities a decent push higher and so what I'd be looking for perhaps yeah a little bit of a pullback for none other than just perhaps a little bit of profit taking here in the S&P as I said we've got to that 50 DMA so on the daily that's going to be quite important around these levels here and if we faded back down a little lower I don't think that would be of too much surprise you can see that initial high we had yesterday afternoon a support kind of platform for the beginning of the Asia session before the push higher just providing a little bit of support here to this recent decline so even if we did decline back down towards pivot perhaps or even you know these previous lows here that was on the way on the the push higher yesterday I don't think that would be room for any type of concern I think all in all even if we drift a little lower and we finished a minor negative today that doesn't detract from the point that we'd still be quite sharply higher taking into account the gains that we've seen at the end of last week and into Monday's session so all in all I'd say I don't have too much bias from the news developments that have occurred overnight I don't think there's anything particularly too important so looking at the charts from a quite technical perspective and then just awaiting that debate to see how things pan out all right guys that's it have a good day and I'll catch you same time tomorrow thanks very much