 Okay, very good morning. It is 6.45 a.m. on Tuesday the 2nd of March. Hope you're doing well. Just going to give you a quick update on what's happened overnight in terms of the close on Wall Street. Some meaningful news coming out of China overnight where their domestic market underperformed on fears of policy tightening and some focus on their property market as well as the broader global view that the Chinese have at the moment about the general frothiness of the market with this whole yield inspired move that we saw dominating market attention over the last week or so and then just going across the charts and having a look at things there's some definitely interesting levels in the currency FX pairs precious metals gold getting very close to that $1,700 level so it has recovered a little bit through the latter part of the Asia session but generally downside pressure still emanating from the firm a dollar at the moment the Dixie this morning is still trading up albeit moderately only around two tenths of 1% but as I'll show you in a moment I think on a dollar index perspective we are looking like potentially technically on the upside some room to move further north which could insert further downward pressure on the major pairs otherwise as you can see here in the cross asset class mix equity index futures are touch lower that does come in context of yesterday in the cash markets in the US and after such a nervous end of last week we had equities under pressure from accelerating yields actually we saw yields just hold quite a bit more steady in comparative terms from what we were seeing last week and that generally alleviated some of the tension and just having a look here this is the US 10-year yield as you can see it's currently trading at 1.42 and so after we jumped up last week considerably we've have now paused at around what is the bottom end of that range of yield consolidation that we saw roughly through the second half of 2019 and beginning of 2020 before you'll see plummeted on the onset of the pandemic and so I do think this is quite a meaningful area now for US 10-year yields I do think it's kind of a bit make or break for this week and obviously some of the data catalyst could well come to the forefront because we've got the other ISM figure coming out later this week got ADP tomorrow non-farms on Friday so these all could be meaningful things to spark some price movement but at the moment it feels like we've just hit a bit of a decision point which is is this fair for pricing in reflective of things like the gross prospects improving the vaccination rollout the dropping COVID in the States the force coming stimulus and so on and so yields having rocketed higher found their natural resting place now with a bit of upside resistance that around the bottom end of that trend from where we were back over that period in 2019 or do we break above and do we see another quick move from around 1.4 up to 1.6 is which is up to around this kind of double top area from going back to February of 2020 and which was around 1.63 so I think there's definitely still warrants watching quite closely yesterday it was interesting because you know we had a really as this settle very firm close on Wall Street the S&P finished up 2.38% and in fact it was the biggest advance we've had in nine months for the S&P 500 then as that composite jump 3% the Russell 2000 small caps was actually up 3.4% so really strong performance there for US equity markets and did come as well with US manufacturing activity that latest ISM number coming in a three-year high and then a surge in new orders but factories still do face increasing higher costs for raw materials and other inputs and mid-labour shortages at suppliers as the pandemic drags on so that prices paid component was particularly eye-wateringly high which would be indicative of inflation concerns however given the aforementioned reasons of higher costs from raw materials and other inputs and mid-labour shortages I do think that that is a key reason of why inflationary pressures will be temporary of nature because of that impact of the shortages due to the pandemic so markets look beyond that and actually took the data for what it was and actually that initiated some of the positive reaction that we saw generally in equity markets yesterday so kind of yield calmness with that data point help lift things however as we go into the overnight session things have soured a little bit and that has led to some dollar strength generally speaking and this is a look at the dollar index on that longer-term trend line we've been kind of jostling with over the last couple of weeks either above or below generally has been quite indicative of dollar movement for the intraday session and one of the things I was looking at yesterday to start the week off was around this 91 level which if I put the crosshair here and you can see the dotted line and if I just zoom it in actually make it a bit more clear to see and so kind of around 91 would it be about here which was encapsulating some of these peaks of price activity we've had over the course of the last two and a half or so months and you can see we're just breaking a little bit above there at the moment and so it does bring into question you know do we push up to the year-to-date highs which would be a little bit further extension of dollar strength up to around 91 59 from 91 18 that we're training at the moment so at the moment I do feel a little bit more bullish about the dollar given this technical setup and if we're looking at the major pairs I do think it does warrant watching quite closely and if I just bring this euro chart into play here and this is the kind of areas that I'd be looking at in today's session this 120 30 level in euro futures was quite key we broke underneath there with some of that prevailing dollar strength in the overnight Asia pack session and you can see we dropped quite quickly at that level is significant over the course of the last month's worth of price action and you can see here it was a support area on the 8th the 17th and a couple of times in yesterday's session so the breakdown of that that support has now turned resistance for this price recovery initially just going into the early hours of European trade so worth keeping on there on the daily does look interesting now actually because around this level is quite technically key as you can see it kind of brings in as well that peak of price activity that we saw back on the first to set so I think it does mean that if that dollar does push on the euro does look a little bit susceptible here to downside 120 psychologically not far off and then you would be looking to target really around this one 1960 and a half kind of area which then starts to bring in some of these price points here that we had previously as resistance in the summer of last year so definitely feeling a little bit more downside bias for the major dollar currency pairs all things remaining equal for the time being euro looks a little bit more compelling technically cable at the moment I'm just eyeing any further push to the downside around this 138 63 level that was previous resistance going back to the beginning of February and so if we do push back down be keeping an eye there and any move through there you've got the s2 and then be looking down at the low we have in the 18th and 17th as potential areas to have a look at looking at you know pounding it in a slightly higher time frame and you know this is looking kind of stretched out and what I wanted to kind of encapsulate here was really this range we were trading through the back end of January so key areas here I think are if we do continue to reverse course would be down towards those areas I just mentioned but then a further deeper pullback through 138 which would be quite a key kind of zone area around 3750 to 138 is this really to do with sterling no not really it's nothing to do with the budget nothing to do with the ongoing UK rollout it's all to do with dollar at the moment so I definitely be looking for dollar to dictate proceedings today as well and as I said upside potential for dollar was going to put some down so pressure on these pairs similarly so if we're just looking at gold the precious metals definitely being weighed upon by some of this recent dollar strength and this is just looking at Friday session we had Monday's recovery came up for a nice technical test on the pullback right to the kind of scene of the crime for the support and break down a price we had on Friday as we now kind of look to recover slightly after initial age of Paclo at 1704 what's interesting here is that we are seemingly continuing to thrash out new lows targeting the $1,700 level in gold now on the pullback higher I'd be looking then for the prior price action on this breakdown of prices as areas of resistance so you can see we've tested and just seeing a little move above it now which that previous lows here on the breakdown of price as we move higher now it does open up potential recovery up to around 25 and a half which would be these highs here and then above their next resistance would be seen in around 31 with 32 being the daily pivot with the broader recovery move up at 54 not so sure we could get out there today but looking on the daily this is what does look interesting because and does make gold seem quite susceptible at the moment to potential downside kind of headwinds is we had and you can see the rationale behind on the daily the breakdown in price that we had quite quickly in the overnight age of Pac session that's because we've been holding relatively nicely around that 1717 breakdown there saw quite a quick flash lower to 04 as I said and we've recovered back to the spot now of that previous era on daily of the low prints of those sessions that being as well around the lows that we had in mid June so definitely keeping an eye here and 1700 definitely a psychological target and I'd say around this kind of band of 84 to 92 captures then the kind of range high and low of this period of consolidation that we were seeing after gold was initially pushing up as the pandemic took hold at beginning of last year and that price consolidation we had of Q2 of 2020 so definitely again it's a dollar story there that I'd be looking at to dictate what the gold direction generally would be and then similarly oil markets being weighed upon a touch I don't really think it's too much OPEC play in this obviously we are expecting around one and a half 1.6 million of the supply cut to be watered down the Saudis taking back their million and perhaps another 500,000 put back online by the OPEC plus group and so I don't think that really comes as too much of a surprise if anything I think with a situation with oil we kind of rallied so far so quick it doesn't really make me feel particularly uncomfortable with the scope of the pullback at the moment albeit has accumulated now to around three dollars in size we found a fairly nice resting spot now at around the $60 handle which does bring in you can see these kind of areas here that we were trading back in deck at 2019 and then the beginning of last year and so perhaps then we find a bit of a floor to price at the moment any further deeper pullback be looking for the next kind of area of support down around 58 40 45 would be something I'll be looking at all right well a couple of headline stories as I said we had positive close on Wall Street as a general summary in fact particularly strong in equity space I wouldn't get overly obsessed with that though because it does come on the coattails of general weakness seen at the end of last week and then overnight in Asia things did turn a little sour given fact that China came out some interesting comments they basically said that they're very worried about bubbles in overseas financial markets that was according to their China banking and insurance regulatory Commission chairman who also added that they're worried about risks in China's property sector this has led to some growing speculation as what did weigh on their local equity market just a week and a half ago or so which is that of policy tightening away from this very cognitive general stance that the central bank has held in line with most other global central banks and that then causing a little bit of nervousness in local trade and just generally dragging down the region and so things have a little bit more negative than perhaps we finished on Wall Street on the back of that I don't really think that that reverberates too much directly into the European open it's very much a China narrative but perhaps then a slightly weaker hand to lead on into the European open overnight we did have the RBA interest rate decision they kept their cash rate steady and their yield target on their three at 0.1% in the QE program at a hundred billion they didn't reiterate their yield kind of target strategy and said that they would buy more bonds if needed in fact despite that commitment yields on Australia actually rose so it was more of a hawkish type reaction by price movement on the back of that now I think the rationale behind this I mean it's not definitive but my take would be that actually this is a bit of a disappointment because just looking at my notes if you remember yesterday the RBA doubled down on its bond purchases to start the week after what we had last week in terms of the yield acceleration that was seen globally and so if you think about it then we did see the biggest drop in Australian yields in about a year going into Monday session so today to see a mild move higher on the back of generally then and as expected in line agreement I think is is nothing to get too caught up in just more for market positioning reaction I'd say the other thing then from a news perspective the Senate so the latest update here is they'll start debating Joe Biden's 1.9 trillion stimulus program as soon as this week according to the Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer it could potentially according to other senators be as early as tomorrow Wednesday at the moment the Democrats then have backed down from their effort to raise the minimum wage to $15 as part of that kind of olive branch to get these talks ongoing the oil market as I mentioned oil prices is sitting around 60 bucks at the moment is down around 72 cents in the near-term price action just just some short-term resistance being encountered here in the early European entrance at 60-22 does encapsulate some of the area of support that was seen going into the close of Wall Street or US trade last night so perhaps of a band until the US session really commences at 60-22 and from the age of Paclo at 59-45 for the time being again as I've already commented on OPEC and one thing to be aware of is that the joint technical committee gathering starts today ahead of the OPEC meeting then it takes place on Thursday so this is when they all get together looking at stats more to then really defined a decision-making they might make two days later but given the fact that those meetings are taking place I would probably expect then an increase in tweets and rumors and hearsay and those types of things so people like Amina Baker definitely worth following on Twitter I did share her hand or on my own Twitter account yesterday if you're not following her already I strongly suggest you do so for any energy traders and then looking at the session ahead and what have we got and so yeah German retail sales numbers nothing to get too excited about not really a focal point for their economy so then very much so looking to later in the morning we get the flash CPI data coming out so this is kind of HACP for the eurozone and inflation definitely a key to watch for a lot of the essential banks with the view of the impending inflation spike albeit most would see it as as temporary and reason for that is energy is expected to be a big component driving headline inflation higher in the coming months given that oil chart I showed you in the pretty quick acceleration we've seen in oil prices over the last couple of weeks and DCB probably going to insist that temporary increases do not constitute something more sustained in regard to its goal of around the inflation targets so again although this number might have upside potential both today or in the coming weeks I don't really think it's particularly going to be something which is going to be that meaningful overall for price reaction I guess the way I look at that data is anything on the softer side with a generally firm of dollar setup could then take out those lower levels in euro then it gets quite interesting for that directional trade for on the back of dollar dollar strength then in the US session it's pretty quiet you've got feds brain are discussing the economic outlook and then feds daily both our voters and they speak at 6 and 7 p.m. each respectively you've also got the ISM New York index at 245 so shortly over the after the cash open this afternoon in the US and that is it so that's your briefing for this morning I'll share some of these technical charts I've marked up into the Amtify live discord room if you're watching this on YouTube don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel really appreciate it plenty more comment coming for sure in the future otherwise have a good day head guys thanks very much