 All right, live on YouTube. Are we live on YouTube? Yeah, got the icon in the corner. So, yeah, look, good, good to, um, I mean, we used to do live sessions on the YouTube channel for the community over big central bank events and things like that. But we obviously have now started Amplify Live. So we've got those guys also on board joining us through the Zoom, which we're delivering this and which we deliver our live stream every day anyway. So do check that out to get a chance. But we just wanted to, um, you know, Tim and I got caught in conversation about this entire energy North American situation really since the weekend. I was off work and Tim's peppering me with WhatsApp's of weather patterns. And so I knew something that was going down and, uh, yeah, inevitably absolutely. It's been a focal point really for the last couple of days. But Tim, before we get into the energy situation, I don't know if you want to share your charts and just get us up to speed of what's been going on today. Sure. Let just let me be here. All right. So here we have just an overview of the standard markets that we look at each day in the discord as a team. So essentially we've seen the dollar actually come off the highs this morning. And the reason why it goes straight to the dollar is this really does rise so much across these futures markets. And seven a.m. just couldn't take a bit over this sort of 91s even area and just went off at seven a.m. eight a.m. down she goes. So we had sort of a, you know, so you see Euro taking benefit from that. We're looking at a pullback potential here about two zero six hundreds even around that area. You're seeing cable is having a phenomenal run today up point eight percent off of that as well. We've just had jobless figures come in and pretty, pretty, pretty soft in terms of a loss of a lot of the figure. Well, basically a reading of eight hundred and sixty four. I think it is coming in on an expectation of seven, sorry, eight sixty one was the print on an expectation of seven, six, five. So more people coming on employment yet the housing starts to build information up. But we are seeing that softness on that bigger bleed into equities here. And, you know, in the S&P, for example, in the center screen down she goes. However, you know, as an oil trader, I normally have very little to do over FMC minutes over these data events. And while oil does kind of nothing and shrugs it off, however, we switch over to my, well, I'll stay with this view. However, we've seen, well, just to pay attention, first of all, to the risk that we've seen so far this week and equities is the story of rising real yields and the bonds dropping off there. So that has been the initial downside. We've seen Tuesday, Wednesday in these equities markets, right? So the yields rising, prices falling, right? Okay, that's sort of the macro environment to work in in terms of the, you know, these actual markets what they're doing. But I'm looking at oil. So we, I think we covered a video a number of weeks ago when we were here breaking up and holding here. Sorry, not a number of weeks ago, probably about, well, about the seventh and up we go through this very light volume area. You know, I think oil would, would be pulling back. However, we have the Permian freeze and we are in into the Permian freeze. So we thought 2020 was going to be, you know, the worst year ever. Well, I think for a lot of people in Texas right now, they're not having a great start for the year. I think we've had a really cold weather system, which people thought was going to come in and made to late December. A lot of gas traders caught offside with that weather system, then not hitting North continental America. Now we are getting, I think it's certainly in Europe it's being called a Siberian freeze. I don't know what the system is. They're calling in North America, but we're having record low temperatures and we're having rolling blackouts across the Permian basin and Texas and North and Central Texas, which is really the thriving heartbeat of the US oil industry. So what we've essentially seen on the news is they've shut in both production rigs in the Permian basin and they've also a lot of the refiners down around the Galveston, South Texas area have also shut down refinery operations because the weather is so cold. So we're in sort of a really historically bad situation for North American crude. The estimates at the moment are between three and four million barrels a day is frozen essentially because of weather shutdowns. So what does this mean? Well, that figure equals 40% of North American production given that we have a figure of around 10 million barrels a day of production down from records of about 13 million seen last year or about 18 months ago. So the industry really is just waiting for DOE figures four o'clock today, usually out at half three, but we have President's Day this week, so we're pushed on a day later. And yeah, really I think the market is just waiting for DOE but API last night came in at a draw of 5.3 or 5.8 million drawdown, not so. So just to give you an idea where we sit in the energy picture, I have my story chart here of oil. Just a quick rundown on this. We were down treading about 34 bucks when Pfizer vaccine and Moderna came out with the vaccines. We're bit up then into the 48.85s. We got a 15 mil bills with which the industry completely shrugged off. Then we had the surprise cut, which is really what everyone's talking about the past couple of weeks. Well, yeah, months actually from Saudi. So you can see the inflection point that that caused on the market probably up to around the 54 handle. But now you can see really for me, the trade here starting the week of the 1st of February is really where the market started to realize that because of the because of how bad things got last March, April, negative price oil, so many exploration and production companies cut their investments in scaled out production and development for 2021. And so really two weeks ago, I think the market just started to wake up to this fact. You're seeing a huge amount of call options being taken out on these companies in the overall industry. And a lot of people are talking about $65 plus here. Also, some analysts I was listening to on Bloomberg this morning are saying listen, if the dollar keeps weakening off, I think we're going to see we can easily see 80 on the Dixie and 80 dollars of barrel WTI. And let's not get ahead of ourselves. But I certainly see that we're in a situation that a lot of analysts are saying is one of the largest prices, largest prices for North American oil that they've seen and that's including Katrina. So, yeah, I mean, Anthony, I don't know, you've been monitoring some of the developments here as well. Yeah, just to cover basis really because we're not an energy specialized trading firm. We're not looking at the complex. We typically trade and look at the crude market. I know Tim and others look at that gas as well from time to time. So just to cover any new entrants to markets, we look at global macro. So essentially, we're looking at the bigger picture because if there's a good product or asset to trade at that time, then we're interested. And at this point in time, this is an unprecedented event, this current weather system, as Tim's just been saying. And one of the questions that in my job, my job is to support the traders in a way of giving them access to information so that they're best prepared to make decisions about the trades that they might be in or considering taking beyond that of just the price pattern on the chart from a technical perspective. And so I was just looking around some resources and was having a look at the National Weather Service. So kind of in a similar fashion for those who track energy markets, you typically look at the national hurricane season and you look at weather patterns forming the Atlantic and so on and how that might impact strategically important areas in North America. What was quite interesting was, you know, Tim was just talking about shale production and the current rate of how that's been dropping anyhow in the post-pandemic environment with demand having dropped substantially and prompting OPEC plus to take this action. But I mean, here's a look at the main areas of where shale activity takes place in North America and the Permian is the one, which obviously is the one that Tim was talking about, the one that gets the most focus given it's the largest by volume. And so here is why Texas is such a talking point. So when you're reading those Bloomberg articles and they're really focusing on the text and the crisis and so on. I mean, that is where you've got Permian, Eagle Ford and Hainesville all in the same state pretty much with Anadarko just above it, even in the northern tip of Texas as a state. So that's why that strategically is quite important. So the way I kind of think about this sort of thing is a couple of things. One is you've got to look at the impact of news in the, what is the more existential threat to price than the near term. So when we talk about OPEC and we talk about COVID-19, these are massive drivers of the price of crude oil, COVID, big one, the vaccination, how quickly economies open up and so on. However, there's now this huge weather system that's led to almost a 40% of entire U.S. oil production taken offline. And as Tim rightly said, that renders any talk of OPEC talking about, we'll re-initiate million here, million there. That's nothing when it's compared in how is the price of oil trading right now as in this week. The system will pass, things will normalize, but for right now this is the talking point. So from here, the thing that's interesting then is this is a weather catalyst. So then it's about, well, how can I track the weather appropriately to stay on top of this sort of thing? So here you've got the National Weather Service and I've just been looking at this website and then there's a bunch of pretty neat tools that if you were really going to get down into a more granular level could be quite useful from the current weather system to animated forecast maps to see how the systems according to the technology should develop over the period of the next 12, 24, 36 hours and beyond. You've then got medium range forecasts because all of this is basically coming back to the main point, which is how do you trade the price of oil now fundamentally? Well, there's been this major catalyst. So what's the next catalyst? Well, the price of oil has now moved up. We've touched 62 and above overnight. It's trading 61 and a half at the minute. Where do we go from here? And to determine that it's almost like the worst of the cold snap has hit. How quickly does the country thaw out? We'll determine then how quickly the infrastructure can start and clicking back into gear again. Now, how quickly that is going to be is what's so difficult to anticipate. Now, we can't guesstimate that. Well, we can, but we can have a more accurate guess by tracking these weather patterns on a frequent basis to see then basically making it as binary as possible to quicker the weather normalizes, i.e. becomes warmer, or the quicker the process can begin so the output can start returning to market and the more bearish that would be for price or vice versa. So here then there's a few things and looking at the current weather system. So this update was within the hour. And again, if you remember, if we're overlaying this with this, it's okay, my understanding is then that Texas as a state is particularly important. Obviously we know the Gulf of Mexico as well is very sensitive for crude oil and energy prices. So then it's about, okay, so what is the weather like in this particular area? Like Oklahoma, for example, obviously incredibly strategically important as well for oil. And yeah, with cushing. And then yeah, looking at how is this going to develop and then what are the subtle changes that you see to these over the next, I would say the next 48 hours is quite key. A is because it's coming into the end of the week. There's only this session and next to trade these products before the exchange shuts. And then two, it's almost like this story has generated now more participants are interested. So there's a lot of people looking at this now. And so it brings about potentially not interesting opportunities for the rest of the session. Now I'm just going to quickly switch back to my charts because equities I can see are just touching on fresh lows here. So NASDAQ center chart got the S&P on the right. S&P just breaking down through 3,900, which was a rough area of support from yesterday's session. And the NASDAQ's just taken out that same kind of reference point on the low. So any area here on the downside, Tim, obviously we've got 15 minutes to cash open. Yeah. And the NASDAQ, I actually think it's going to put up a fight here. But on the downside, you got the 20 EMA. If I switch over on the charts. Yep. You got it. I'll just shut mine and you can share yours. So, yeah, you've got the 20 EMA, the daily exponential living average at 13473. That has really been a pretty fantastic support as we trailed up on these equities. Looking at the broader picture though, or the NASDAQ on the daily, you can see here on the right-hand side of the screen in the 30 minutes here. As we push down, we are now pushing down through pretty savage level that was 535s. I think we easily come down to this 20 EMA right now. And actually this pie here from the 21st of Jan, just below, also with this overall trend channel up that we've seen, I think that would be a nice place to put on a little bit of risk and probably fade this, what is it, down move right now. Also yesterday, we saw a fantastic support on NASDAQ 25th of Jan pie. Really lovely fade on the downside there back up. So, yeah, it's big levels. We're down 1.24% at market right now on the NASDAQ and we haven't even opened. What we have seen though, is any downside that we see pre-market and early on the market open on these US equities, we do kind of get bought back up again pretty quickly. People buying these dips, love it or hate it. There are dip bars out there. I've heard they exist. So, just to finish off on, well, let's keep having a look at some other levels on these US equities, the S&P under pressure here. We did cover this in the pre-US video, which is live in Discord right now for the team, but let's see S&P, S&P, S&P, if I can find my chart, there we go. Yeah, this is what the S&P looks like right now. Looking at this level up here, the 39.63s, a little bit of a fib extension area, and then the magical 4,000, just above at the top of this red zone. I think we're going to have another situation. We're selling down pre-market and then we're just going to find buyers down below. And the S&P on the prior high, the 19th of January and also the high of the 25th of January, sorry, is that right? So we're on the weekly bars here. So yeah, weekly bars. So probably a little more time to play out on this picture, to be honest. But yeah, just to finish off in the energy focus chat, I have the all useful map from the EIA, Energy US Institution. Now this actually shows you the North American network of energy. So we have Galveston port here and over to Wales, if you kind of don't know what you're looking at here. Here's the North American continent. We're looking at the energy picture across North America just on this lower area. But as you can see, as we zoom in a little bit here and have a look at, they should update in a second. Essentially, yeah, here you go. This is a lot of the Permian basis up around here. This is the area that's really badly affected right now. And you've got cushioned points is right here. I don't know if you can see my charts with me. This is an annotation tool. A pen going on. Yeah, something like this. So essentially on my screen, we have cushion is right here. And then this frozen out kind of Permian base in is all this area here. And then this is the main delivery and points for the refineries. So all these guys in the bottom bubble are shut down for operations. They're not buying in the world. And then in the middle bubble here, they're shutting down operations and there's nothing going to the ports. So, you know, it's a really bad situation. Anyway, well, we've got just under 15 minutes now to the open on the noisy. In terms of the rest of the session, what's installed from a schedule point of view? You've got. Yeah. Stop that one. Yeah. Well, we have DOE coming up. So yeah, I mean, the other thing we have to take into account here is Department of Energy readings. DOE. Now we have a specific way of trading DOE here. Well, I do anyway. And a lot of people using this. So if I kind of just focus in on my energy book here, let me just get it up. Actually just focus on like this. So here you can see WTI in a 30 minute bar on the left. And you've got a daily bar on the right. So I actually forgot that I tracked this massive downtrend in oil. So what we're going back to here is Gaspar 2014 June highs. Right. June highs 2014. 2018 October highs. 2020 Jan highs. And lo and behold, today's highs. So pretty interesting trends here. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we get a really strange reaction to DOE today. Given that we are really up here on oil. And I think, you know, we're trading April. This is April delivery oil. We're trading the J 21 contract. I don't know why traders would essentially be paying 65 bucks for oil delivery. That isn't for another essentially essentially calendar wise. Well, a month and a bit now month and a half. Because this weather system is going to be old news by this time next week. Well, almost old news. So maybe there's there's a little bit of, you know, some of the things that we're going to do is we're going to be buying the room or unbuying what's already happened and sell the fact. So. That's just another interesting to the man, the dimension to this, but to show you what happens on the API. Last night. Essentially just to leave this off. Like this little better. So when we got the readings. So the API is drawn in a 5.8 mil. And we're stuck within that range. So this says to me that traders are definitely not that excited about pushing these prices further up here right now. I think we got a confirmation of this on the OE. I think we could push in here, but I, there's a little part of me that wants to take a short on that. And then we come. We're going to be taking the technical layout of this. And I saw many people are just going to want to buy oil. I think the contract you want to be looking at, if you want to be a buyer of energy right now. Is not gas. This is not gas in the daily. Or sorry, the weekly. And then we have not gas. On the 30 minute here and we've seen. We're just bringing up out of this area. I think we were up about eight or nine percent. Yesterday. I think we're at the same day before. This is trading at $3 and 15 cents. I think something like 60% of the other grades of Matt gas. This is Henry hook. 60% of the other grades are trading at like. $150. One of the grades in the Rockies was trading at $600. And which is historically. I don't think they've ever traded with those prices. Anyway, that's really a rundown for me. And any questions. They're in YouTube. I wonder. Just while you have a look, let me have a quick look at the currencies. Just to give some variation to the different asset classes. So. Yeah, I was just looking at cable and euros talking about this little bit in the. Morning briefings. So, you know, if you don't, if you're new to the channel, don't forget that every day I basically do a morning macro fundamental update. I normally do that pre seven a.m. for our Amphi live community. And then it goes up on the YouTube channel a bit later. But what I was talking about this morning was this. They're just just the ongoing. It's been fairly persistent of late. It's the divergence between sterling and your own sterling certainly. Putting that. And then the next morning, where there's, you know, we've basically touched 140 in cable, which is a meaningful level on the, on the daily chart. We've been. Looking at that as an eventual target for quite some time. I know people like Sam have been. Just pretty patient. Just sat there waiting for this to. To eventually materialized and, you know, based on the notion that I was listening to an interesting comment from. I read yesterday, I was watching on Bloomberg. And they were like, they were asking him about, well, are we starting to see the first remnants of the disruption that Brexit is going to cause by what's happening with trade and the Northern Ireland issue reemerging and so on. And I think he's right in how he replied, which is the thinking being that. Brexit definitely will have structural issues in the period for the next years to come. But right now. For the next three to six months time horizon. This is about vaccinations and reopening economy. And that's the key driver or metric that market participants looking at when it comes to Sterling. And so, although there might be an over degree of optimism about how smooth Brexit has been, it probably is a lot more bumpy to anticipate in the future. For discussions we've had before about still a lot of unresolved issues. But the point is for now it's about a vaccine story and the UK continues to perform well on that front. So that's what's kept that belief there. And, you know, for someone like Sam, I know from a fundamental perspective, you've got to maintain a belief as well that the Fed are not going to be phased by this renewed reflation idea, which they have pushed back against. Reynard just before he came on. You've had the minutes last night. You've had Powell. Everyone's pushed it back against that early notion of that initial post-Georgia Senate switch to the blue wave that initiated that kind of reflation thinking. As long as the Fed remain that way, in combination with the UK continuing the trajectory, which is a divergence in an outperformance of vaccination rollout comparative to say mainland Europe. And that's what's kept that Sterling currency so supported. Irrespective of the disconnects, you could say between that of the reality that's on Main Street, which is I was reading this morning that at some point, furloughs got to end. And when it does, there's millions of jobs that you could say are zombie jobs that have been kept alive. And these not just individuals, these are companies as well by the idea they've been backstopped by the government. That's the tricky point. I think that not just the UK, but every economy faces in the future, which is a decision point of turning the tap off physical stimulus. And this is what the market's chewing over at the moment as a key issue. And that's what's splitting opinion. I've heard a lot this week and Piers and I will cover this definitely in the podcast tomorrow. And that is this idea of people are starting to get ever more concerned about equities. The higher we go, the more the bears start crying out that we need a pullback here. And it's an interesting point. And at the moment from the people I've been listening to, it's a split opinion right now between those who are pretty firm. I would still say on the balance, the majority consensus is that we go higher. And that ability to have that sustained more impactful downside might not emerge yet. I do think that the risk of that though does come in time. When we get to that tipping point of, yeah, economies are 75%, 80% inoculated economies have to reopen. What does that then mean for fiscal monetary policy? That for me fundamentally, the macro top level is the key that then could create something more meaningful in a reaction effect. But underlying that, don't forget that, you know, it's a weird environment where theoretically though, the company should be performing better in that type of economy, which is heating up, which is performing. It's just the removal of this kind of low era environment, but that's the fed's job then in a Yellen-esque format to do it as smoothly and gradually as cautiously as possible to keep the gravy chain running. It's whether or not they can achieve that. Well, yeah, it's quite interesting up at these levels. I think if I go zoom back to the intro day, I know we've got a couple of minutes to the stocks open, which we want to keep an eye on. Any pullbacks here looking at 39.53, that was that initial high print that we had in the overnight session two days ago would be an area to keep an eye on. The euro likewise has been shackled for the time being by around that one 2089 was the level I was looking at this morning, which has... We've had a brief flirt up toward 121, which is the R1 sat just below three or four pips, but that level holding for the moment. Quite a key level you can see here over the last two weeks or so, price activity in the euro currency. And yeah, just quite keen to see then can the boiler maintain some of the upside of late? I was looking at the Dixie this morning in the briefing, and if I just flip over to that Dixie chart in the futures, this is what I've been looking at and tracking for a while, is this long-term trend line in the Dixie, going back on the May-November test. So here, if I zoom in to the current price activity, this is looking on a daily. You can see here on the daily with the Dixie weakening at the moment. I mean, look at the respect it's had over the last five trading days. The resistance, resistance, it gaps up above, and then it's come down, tested, and it's done so again today. So I'm quite interested to see here. The Dixie found a bit of resistance around 91-ish today. It resulted in backing off, which has helped support euro and sterling. But if that trend line holds, then around these levels, if the Dixie remains supported, then it'll be just interested to see how this afternoon plays out and do we get a bit of a pullback on those highs and those dollar pairs. So yeah, that's really the FX update at the moment in some of the majors. One minute cash open. Cool. We are going to get the GameStop hearings today, which is, you know, grab the popcorn, crack a beer. That's going to be good for you. I can just see Will's joining us on the chat. Yeah, I need a pullback. Yeah, I mean, Will did a really great session with you, Tim, and Bitcoin, and the idea about, you know, I don't think anyone is not of the view that some of these assets can go higher. It's just about the route to going higher. And the idea then that a pullback, you know, you often hear this, that certain products need a pullback, which is a healthy sign for then a continuous push from the outside. If something is just parabolic going one direction, that's telling you you're going to get burned on the wrong side of that when it pulls back. 100%. 100%. We talked about this and gold a couple of weeks ago and that I was just like, the deeper we got a pullback, the better. I like it for getting along and for getting into loans. It's just, it's just dizzying. I'm actually a little bit tired of hearing about the action that's coming. And as we were talking about before this session, I was just saying, listen, how about yelling and pal, just rip the bandaid off, announce when they're going to, they're going to start to ease off on the QE and we can start, you know, getting some real good, you know, movements and realistic value into the market. We're open now on equities. Pretty unchanged really across the border, though you've seen cable taking a pullback, a little pullback there. Be mindful that, you know, we have, the Dixie has found a little bit of support, 90 spot 57 sir. And we have been bought up on these pre-market sell downs for pretty much the last year. And any of these pullbacks are just being bought right up. But more specifically over the last, well, since Tuesday, any downside pre-market and during the open on the market has just been snapped up. So you're getting that pullback on cable now. So yesterday is high. Should act as a floor, but I mean, I mean it's up 0.68% already on the day. What I'd be mindful here is, is the bonds are really weak on their low of days. And I think you're going to see a bit more of this real yields conversation come back over the airways. Yeah. What's quite interesting from a cross-asset class perspective at the moment is equities and T notes are lower. So that would play true to that belief that, irrespective of the worsening jobless claims. Yes, they were above the top end of expectations, but even an 800 type K figure is not massive. Because if you look at the actual, the way that that data has been performing, that's not two hour line of the average over a slightly longer period. And then you had what some housing data as well. And housing starts, the housing starts were particularly strong, wasn't it? Was it the building permits? Let me double check. Yeah, the building permits of 1.881 million against expectations of 1.68. So yeah, and this comes on the coattails of, this is exactly what the Fed, and Tim and I were talking about this earlier before we came online with the community this morning. And it was the data's been really good. But if you're the Fed, you're like, whoa, whoa, whoa, just hold your horses a little bit. It's like data is good. Yes, that's great. So the economy is surviving, is performing, is recovering. But it does put the pressure on them. And it makes the market feel like the questions being asked of them. Now, that's why you've had such frequent Fed communication of late. We've had speakers every day because the Fed's job, if I was in charge of the central bank would be, look, we need as much as soon as this, these conversations start materializing about us and what we're doing and will we remain supportive? If there's more long lasting inflation, if we start to break well in excess of three, four percent territory in inflation, these types of ideas of reflation, well then we need to soothe those concerns by just talking all the time. So the key thing I think in the, if these current trends in markets materialized to monitor as a trader going forward is, is there any incremental subtle changes to this language over time? The more the market behaves in a similar fashion with yields that we have seen generally of late moving higher, the more likely it is they've got to address that. And then that therein lies a potential disruptive event for markets. We're not quite there yet, evidently, from the fact that they're all staying put at the moment, they're not really changing the rhetoric at all. How did that make sense? Yeah, I just think with these yields rising, people who have been fleeing the bombs over the negative interest rates are going to start to get enticed back in there that risk off product, a little bit more yields. Come on Tim, don't do this to me, I've just seen a guy looks just like you, he's just tweeted something, you've got to talk me through it. I don't know what you're talking about. Somebody said short oil, is that right? So, okay, so what markets held up, people are waiting, because even though as we've said, the weather system is the undeniable driving factor, but that doesn't mean that the infantry won't cause a degree of volatility very short term over the release. And so what you're thinking markets are just holding price, waiting for 4pm for the data and then it might give back some of that bid. Yeah, I just feel like it's too obvious right now. It's too obvious. Yogi's getting very excited again. He was very excited about the Wells Fargo or no, Wal-Mart earnings. Yeah, I think it's, I just think this weather system is going to be over and I was reading analysis that the situation on Katrina, actually everything got back to normal very quickly. So, you know, going with what we were talking about, the, you know, likening this to a hurricane trade strategy, whereby, you know, you buy the rumor essentially, you buy that the fact that this hurricane is like imminent within 48 hours, 24 hours. And then as it's hitting land, you're literally unwinding that trade as it's hitting land, because, you know, within 12 hours, all those refineries, all those rigs are just going to be back to normal operations, quick smart, and this is just par for the course for these guys in the Gulf of Mexico. So, I see this risk premium of the freeze. I think that risk premium in particular is going to have to be unwound very quickly. Within a matter of, I'd say 24 and 48 hours. So, yeah, I'm just, I'm really looking at both sides of this, but I'll show you the chart. I'll show you the chart. And then you're going to be covering this in full on the AmphiLive stream. The DOE release. Yeah, as I do each week cover in Discord to the team. I cover the, yeah, sorry, the DOE release life. And we look at the strategies are in and around that. So, let me just, my system is a little bit slow right now. Can you see the screen? Yeah, there you go. All right, this is WTI on the weekly note. The chart you're looking at is the J21 contract. That's April 21 futures. That's what we're looking at. So, we have, as I said, the highs here, 2014, the highs, 2018, the highs, 2020, and where we are now. I think there is a, there is a good trade thesis for letting the DOE wash out on the upside. And then it's just pair it back. So, that's me explaining myself. Public accountability here. But that, you know, this is, there's a, just in, in this area, right, just to make, you know, there is a lot of wiggle here just in this tiny candle. This is a weekly bar here. So, if we kind of come back down to essentially this picture here, this is the trend here on the 30 minute bar chart. Okay. So, you know, there, well, there's not too much. I mean, it's about a dollar up from where we are now. No big shakes, but I'm just a little, the reason why I talk about this is I'm just a little, I mean, so many people are asking me this morning, why are we not printing 64, 65, 70? Somebody there said, why are we printing 100? Well, we're not printing 100 because I think that's just way too expansive for a barrel of oil right now. Bush, I'm a little bit disturbed as to why we're not at least printing up to say 64 handle a lot over this risk. So there's just a question and I know this is product that we're looking at quite a bit recently as copper. Copper, yes. We're going to give us an update on the chart there, what that's looking like in a minute. It's looking like someone launched a rocket. That's what it's looking like. I mean, look at this. Look at the overnight. Half 12, we're up. Just, just, well at market, we're up 1.8%. So that's a bit into copper. For the last couple of weeks, we've been talking about the copper, copper gold spread. I don't have that spread chart set up here. So I should have found that sort of, but essentially copper to gold spread chart is breaking out of a multi-year downtrend. And certainly we're seeing that as gold is pretty much going out of fashion at the moment, or certainly seems to be, you know, in the past couple of days, the past couple of weeks even on copper looks like this. Really nice sort of baseline to this trade of $3.51. You know, we're trading $3.89 now. The trade I like on copper, I think the spread is the best way to play this. If you could buy an exchange spread on this all the better, you can get a lot more margin relief on your equity on the account. Yeah, so essentially that will be long one copper, short one gold. However, you're going to have to work out your spread ratio, given that one contract of copper trades at $3.89, whereas one contract of gold trading at about what, $17.80, $780 a contract. So you need to work out what the perfect spread ratio is there. But yeah, yeah, nice market. We did release a video internally on silver versus, or sorry, the SLV ETF on silver versus the Sprosh Silver PSLV ETF, which is an interesting video if you're looking at getting involved in silver. So yeah, it's a slightly messy chart here, but I like silver over the next couple of months. Just on that point, Tim, let me just bring up the portal, and I can show the guys where they can find that SLV video, because it was a great video. I think if you haven't seen it, it definitely needs a watch. So we just grabbed screen for one second. Just going to move a few windows. So this is on Amplify Live. There's four separate sections. There's a live stream that's run by Tim every weekday. I join him for any time there's major events going on to add my kind of fundamental view on things. Separate to that, then we have a discord room, which I'll show you in a second. And then we've also got some training material that's on demand, but more than that, updating continuous educational pieces, live training events, strategy discussions, and so on, that all get stored on the hub. So here, for anyone new to markets, there's kind of series of very in detail videos to get you up to speed on the foundation, but something for the discord listeners and those who haven't checked this out already, there's four new sections here I've created. So all under Amplify Insights, you've got the Trader Toolbox, Macro, Commodities, and Crypto. We as macro participants are just interested in all things markets. And Crypto has definitely been something we've been watching of late. So here you can see there's different crypto sessions we've been doing from 10 minutes up to an hour long, looking at different things. We've brought in Specialist. We had a PhD level professor come in and talk to us about blockchain technologies and emerging innovations in the space and things like that. So it's been great. But beyond crypto, there's things here, like macro insights. So you can see here, there's hours worth of content. And we're adding to this on a daily basis, more structural stuff where we talk a little bit more away from markets, more about the trader cost structures, balancing trading and work life, longer term portfolio management, single stock selection, all these sorts of things. So yeah, worth checking that out. But I've made a slight change to that so that this player you can access at any time. The Discord chat, what does that look like? Well, this is the Discord chat here. We have a variety of different rooms depending on what user you are. But there's things you can find on here. There's technical charts on an intraday, medium term basis where we have Sam, who's one of our more technical oriented traders sharing charts all day every day. Then we have calendars, daily, weekly earnings estimates and earning releases when they come out. There's bank research reports on a macro, forks and commodity basis. There's live recordings. So if you ever miss anything, then like yesterday's retail sales report release. So Tim and I were covering that just for the community. There's live recordings of that. There's sessions happening all the time here. And then we had masterclass. So I was joined last night by Merritt Black, who perhaps is a familiar name for some of you. He's now running his own prop desk app Terros, but he used to be at S&B Capital in New York. But we've had loads of great people here, a pretty heavy hitting portfolio manager who had some fantastic insight as to simplifying a kind of macro approach to a viewer markets over a nine month kind of timeframe. We've had Dr. Brett Steenbarger, obviously a fairly influential figure in the trading psychology space. We've had Matt Chung, my brother, who works in the FinTech area and has some really interesting things to say about emerging technologies and so on, how to get exposure to that in an equity sense. So yeah, some cool stuff on here. So just check out amplifylive.com if you want to have a look in more detail. Yeah, we've got Mark Gardner coming up on the masterclass also. Yes, so tell me a little bit about Mark, Tim. Yeah, so Mark was the largest bonds trader in Australia for about five years running. And he's now, he was a personal mentor of mine for a number of years. Actually, we had a chat during the week which we recorded and ready to put out on the platform. But it's funny actually, because there's a little known bond trader called Rambo. There is a guy out there on Rambo. And so Rambo was a pretty decent sized trader in the CME for a number of years. And then he decided to move to Australia. And he absolutely destroyed the Aussie bonds market. And actually Rambo and Mark now work together. And so Mark has got his own firm now. He's mainly focusing on equities. And yeah, it's good to get his view on the markets. And we started the conversation off really looking at what is the relation of, you know, what effect does the APAC session Asia Pacific session have? What effect does that have really on the London session that comes after and that European session that comes after? So it was interesting from that point of view. And then we really got into, you know, the broader topics about the markets, which it was good to get his input on. So what was your nickname when you're in Geneva? Did you have one? It's got to be something about your Irish. I suppose you were based in the Dublin office, though, not Chicago, right? Yeah, I think my nickname in this room is called tight risk. Timmy Simon's reminded me here. We have top gun call names. I'd rather go by that one Viper. I know Anthony's is goose. Mother goose. He fights it. But no, I actually, we didn't really go in for a nickname. So on the Geneva desk at all. I remember there was this one guy for many years ago. He was short guy. He must have been the best part of five foot two. So pretty small guy. And he was, he was a broker. He was on our floor and he, he was called cheesy. And I remember saying to him one time he was making a coffee. I was like, why don't they call you cheesy? And he just said, because my head is like a derrily triangle. And I was like, God, these, these traders go to no expense with their creativity. Because everyone had a nickname. I mean, it was no one was called by their actual name or at least abbreviation of their name. There was the only nickname that's ever stuck is Doug. Cause my second name obviously in school. Most pretty much all my friends just call me Doug. And she's funny with some of the guys, you know, each other for about 22 years. So some of the guys still just have to think for a second when they have to remember what the person's first name is. Yeah, embedded. So oil's having a bit of a pullback. Just through that 30 inch area that was holding up a bit of resistance to price. And yesterday, it was yesterday session two days ago. So do you look for a floor at 61's here until the data hits. Yeah, that's the normal expectancy of, of what we'd look at here. Yeah. And there's an API range that we trade. And it's kind of just breach that, but I think 61's is the floor on that API range. I think if we, if we get down like to S one 60 spots, 60 threes, I think that's, you know, going to be quite cheap for not having the data out. And obviously with the macro event of the freeze, I think I don't think we're going to spend too much time then on 60 threes or S one before we get the data. If that happens. But I'm leaning a little bit on the short side. So, you know, by saying that, that weekly chart does look separate break out. So I'm not committing to do, I want to be a buyer or seller at this time yet. I think I'd be all eyes on the euro for getting a nice entry on the lungs. Okay. Okay. Okay. Cable now given it up below 3950 threes. So just to let everyone know, the prices that I'm trading are the front month futures. So if you're trading CFD's, the app market prices, I quote, may not be the exact prices that you're trading. That goes in for the highs and lows of day as well. Unless you're trading direct market access. I think you're trading about $2 million in cash. As well. We're not going to be trading the IMX or C bot or com max as all those CME listed sub exchanges. I think gold is. Sick as a dog. There's a question in the, in the. Discords. Will we do a masterclass on copper, gold ratio and spread? Yeah, we can certainly look at that. Yeah, for sure. it and Will can join you for that and just do a chat for the for the community during the during the day and we'll just record it for anyone who can't yeah yeah attend it absolutely so add to the let me shoot shoot let me shoot Will a message now and perhaps you can do it with you tomorrow morning just for the criticism with regards to some of this moving Australia it's time for me okay we've got about five minutes before we wrap up the youtube live session but if there's any questions while we're here let us know because otherwise we're going to flip back and just continue the the private live streaming and Amphi live for the rest of the afternoon so while we're here and if you are following on youtube only hits us with your questions and we'll do our best to address them for the next five minutes gold headed to 1500 oh I don't know I don't know 15s that's uh it's my oh you know what what do you think I'm 15s I can't see it I think that's a little too cheap but I certainly bite your hand off to buy gold off you have 1500 up in the next week for sure just having a look here on the monthly I mean there would be 1521 it's obviously a really important area we're out at the minute which on the daily kind of looks like that level we were looking at we got yesterday was looking a little bit heavy we broke through the the previous low on the beginning of Feb on the fourth and there's a lot of attention on that load that was seen on the 30th which was I think as kind of like the reverse of what Tim was looking at on his oil annotated chart where oil was picking up after the vaccine using Pfizer in early November gold's done the opposite since that point in time given it's such a key catalyst obviously for for the determining factor of the economy over the kind of medium term horizon so yeah 1500 for me feels ambitious I definitely think if we break here though it could trade quite heavy quite quick yeah perhaps then looking I mean the next obvious target then is we fall over to 1700 in pretty rapid fashion that would start to bring in some of the area of reaction effect that we had back in well really the initial phase of the pandemic when that was all kicking off this is kind of the epidemic pandemic phase when we had the global shutdown then that as a consequence resulted in that big push above 2000 yeah today tomorrow I think is quite key for oil on these lower levels where we finish on the week do we hold above that point on the daily which is that fourth of all certifications of the November low at 1762 just if you hold on that chart for a second if you hold just there for a sec so there is a strategy that we use in the room it's the the bull and bear flag right and we normally look at this oh hold on let me get this up so in order to look at the channel that you have right this channel right and we sort of getting a bit of a lag on my pen here sorry about this but essentially if we look at that you do look for one of the key points for a test up like this is that we we get suspended in a way like this and then we we managed to come up here break out pull back to the area and then this is an entry here to get long so it's just one of the strategies that a lot of the guys have found edge in now I know this is daily continuation it's a much bigger strategy to run on a daily bar but you know this is a lot of the traders in the room have found edge in this so you know if you're kind of struggling to find edge as a trader this is the sort of stuff we cover in the room on a regular basis different types of edges we just did mac d histogram edge this week is a bull flag bear flag strategy that we'd be looking at and that applies to like this could be a 30-minute bar chart or five-minute bar chart and it's a great way to kind of keep your nose clean keep your risk tight and develop as a trader. Cool and yeah there's another comment here or question about should we be worried of rising unemployment concerns in the UK and lack of willingness in the government to support workers um so if you didn't catch my my comment earlier about the pound you know whether it's the end of fiscal support which is furlough or whether it's Brexit kind of reality and structural changes that are still to really be defined that's going to cause disruption I think yes these things are potential issues but at the moment it's about trading what's here and now and what's the clearest driver and that definitely is heavily geared towards the vaccine so Joseph at the moment I think you have to trade the pound on the basis of vaccine employment as far as the UK because of consequence the speed of restrictions and how they are loosened that will be the most powerful thing in a three to six month horizon I think beyond that point then once we're over that period of adjustment or readjustment back to degree of normality then people will start bringing in these other factors um probably the unemployment one the end of fiscal support I think is an interesting one perhaps even before the Brexit issue which I think will be could be even years before a lot of those things get really um addressed in their entirety um so the effects on the pound for now is definitely and what has been in the short term an outperformance comparative to to to peers as far as the FTSE is concerned I mean the FTSE index is not something I typically look at on a regular basis but you know Tim and I were looking at the FTSE probably about six eight weeks ago and we were saying that the relative underperformance of the FTSE because of the fact that not only is COVID hit but you've got the drag headwind of Brexit which has kind of been a bit of a noose around its neck given the uncertainty going into then the agreement that now materialized it obviously at the end of last year so yeah most of the things I read people are still relative bullish about the FTSE prospects um at the moment I mean I can't really speak about it much from a technical perspective for right here right now but um yeah the FTSE for sure I think the pound would be much more sensitive I think to those aforementioned things the vaccine the restrictions uh the end of furlough and probably reduction of fiscal stimulus um and then Brexit I think the the FTSE might well just be more of a capture and a lesser volatility reaction than the FX market that's probably what I would look at okay final questions do you recommend a squawk service um yeah if I was going to recommend one I'd probably have to recommend new squawk because you know we look at the world in a macro point of view and they're the best by a country mile for macro coverage it depends what you're trading if you were trading single stocks I'd probably recommend trade the news you know they they're they're have been the best in the business but they cover single stocks specifically don't go to them for macro I'd go to new squawk for macro just cover a couple more questions in here yep um does someone here use volume uh no but market profile more so um that would be me and then uh how do you see the effective yeah okay Anthony loves talking about interests or sorry inflation at the moment this is favorite topic um how do you see the effective interest and inflation on typical industries like travel in the coming weeks I think prices are going up there's no stopping it that's my view like travel I mean I don't think interest inflation will have much to do with travel I think travel is much more associated to I mean travel is the one area which is highest correlation to restrictions at the moment so I'd be looking at it more defined in that sense um yeah that I mean this is the talking point there was a great article in the FT this morning I showed to you so you know which one to look at and it was talking about this very idea of is the US bonds sell-off a warning to stock market investors who've been driving this market higher this is the article here so if you if you have access to the FT you haven't read of that and it's just talking about yeah further sharp rising yields of threatened wall streets record run I think then it's about distinguishing the different types of companies there are companies who are maybe small companies who are more tech-oriented who don't actually have cash and they don't actually even their product is their entire business models built on the future payoff of a new technology I think they can withstand a higher rate environment but people like who've got a lot of money sat on the sidelines you know this is why a lot of people say some of the big tech I think big tech overall just plows on but the pace of increase probably then starts to look a lot different from what we saw during the initial pandemic phase if rates environment starts to to to move higher um but yeah check out that article I mean it covers it in a very better way than I can uh kind of explain it and there's some good quotes for different people with their views I'll put the link in the chat um otherwise do we scalp well Tim any scalping 100% I am trying to I am trying to cut my scalping down because it's it's really a high energy high energy required way of trading uh you need to be really on points and um you know you need to be in and out of stuff like a thief very quickly you can't get married to positions you need to do a lot of training I think to to to scalp um with size and certainly that's something that we did in Geneva trading um but really for me as a trader my progression I'm I'm looking to more holds hold that size over much longer time frames going into a number of days and weeks so um there's a method that I kind of talk I've talked about with the guys in the discord is really scalp to position trading and um it's sort of a hybrid of you know scalping small moves that then develop into much bigger things and um yeah we've covered that a few times in the discord yeah all right well look Tim why don't we wrap it here on YouTube and we'll go back to the um downfire live stream yeah so looking forward to four o'clock DOE you can join us in discord room sign up for a free trial and we've got a great community going there and otherwise we'll see you at the next live stream cool thank you guys and just before you cut it let me just put in the link into the YouTube chat thanks so much Tim thanks everyone