 Hello and welcome to the Growth Summit 2023 here in Geneva. I'm Juliet Mann, I'm an anchor for CGTN China's International Channel and I'm going to run you through our next session, which is growth hotspots, the new geography of investment and growth. I'm just going to throw a few numbers at you just to get us all in the zone here. Growth is forecast at around 2.7% in 2023, with around a third of the world's economy facing a technical recession. Now that's nearly the weakest growth outlook in over 20 years. But there are new opportunities in emerging markets, emerging geographies, leading in areas like food, like tourism, green tech, energy, digital services and more. So which countries and regions are going to drive global growth, are going to generate investment, attract that investment, not just now, but over the next decade. Here with me now are a fantastic panel to talk through just that, where the growth is going to come from. I've got Mamustique Feller, who's the Minister of Investment at Trade and Industry of Botswana. Thank you for coming. We've got Karen Harris, who is the Managing Director of the Macro Trends Group at Beylenco consultancy. And also joining us here is Burak Doglu, who's the President of the Investment Office of Turkey. What a great panel. Now, I think I'll start with you, Moussi, because as we speak, there is such an uncertain economic backdrop, isn't there? I mean, is your outlook for the global economy still doom and gloom, or are things going to perk up a bit in 2023? I think there's a lot of room for improvement. We shouldn't look at it as altogether doom. When we look at, for instance, our entry into the African continent of free trade and area agreement, which is the largest since the WTO was formed, the whole objective of it is to integrate the rest of Africa from Cairo to Cape, so that we could then jointly grow together. There are many other regional agreements that we have in Southern Africa, for instance. We have the Southern African Customs Union and the Sadiq Agreement. I think if we properly implement those agreements and collaborate with one another, there is plenty of room for growth. And Africa is the new market. It's a market which has not been exploited before. It is now time for it to be exploited. And we're inviting Europeans and Americans to look into Africa. It is, especially in Botswana, being known for our peace and stability, our fiscal discipline. It is a very vast amount of space available for food production, green energy production. It is quite an appropriate place from which those companies which are advanced technologically can springboard from to access the greater African market. And it's really an invitation to all of you to consider Southern Africa and consider Botswana as a destination place to go and set up investments. So there is a lot of, I think, we are pregnant with prosperity. I think we are. So Botswana, Southern Africa, the continent of Africa open for business. Karen, I wonder what your take is on this. What do you see as the key global hotspots, but also the challenges that are going to be affecting international trade and investment? I think part of the reason there is such a doom and gloom story is that we're in this interesting period where we're at the end of this business cycle that was bizarrely fast as the world closed and then reopened and sort of bumbled its way into what looks like a recession, certainly in North America and in Europe now going forward. But at the same time, we are at the end of some important secular forces that are also transformational and really will help us guide us in this next cycle. Probably the most important of those is moving from globalization to what we call a vain post globalization, which is a more fragmented world where trade and investment will have more barriers. Now there are lots, it's easy to talk about the downsides of that, but I think the opportunities there are, we go from a world that was largely, scale was unlimited in many respects. We had free movement of goods, the larger you could get the better and that presented one set of opportunities. But as we move into a more fragmented post global world, there will be different opportunities, certainly in the private sector to serve different markets that will have more localization, will have more focused domestically. Now, again, it's easy to bemoan industrial policy and of course China's always had industrial policy. The U.S. started quickly out of the gate with the Inflation Reduction Act. But at the same time, I think this more fragmented world creates opportunities for different experiments in green energy, different ways of attacking agriculture and other commodities and different business structures for trade that I think will be quite positive over this next cycle. I think the Inflation Reduction Act is possibly a conversation or a topic for an entire, a whole panel. There's lots to talk about there, but talk about opportunities. So, Puruak, let's talk about those opportunities and the green shoots. What do you think they are, the things that are going to lift growth prospects? Is it China? Is it the United States? Are there any particular emerging economies? First of all, thank you for the question. And during this summit and in other global platforms, we all agree that the growth must be, first of all, sustainable. Secondly, inclusive. And third, it has to be resilient. And to achieve that target, of course, it's not easy, but it definitely should be inclusive and all geographies should be aligned in these regards. So, when we look at those, for example, for the trade, last year, the trading goods were below the forecast that growth. And for the next year, the WTO expects that it will be 1.7%. This is nothing. So, most probably, these new emerging industries will make a kind of difference. And of course, the services trade will make a difference. So, when we look at those global hotspots as the geographies, all those trends that we mentioned, longer-term trends like sustainability agenda, digitalization, and we all know that globally there is a labor challenge. I mean, we are talking about this great resignation and et cetera. It's all resulting in a huge supply chain restructuring globally. I think the next growth will be around this team. So, the global supply chains are changing. Different countries in different parts of the world, like in Asia, in Latin, in Africa, is emerging. And in our region, Turkey is at the nexus of Africa, Europe, and Asia. We believe that Turkey is taking the advantage of this new restructuring with given indicators, like exports are growing very rapidly, economy is growing. And I think this will be the new team, I mean, the restructuring of the global supply chains. And Botswana's economy is growing as well. There's growth forecasts that have increased. I mean, are there any particular sectors that you're excited about that sustainable growth is coming from? Yes, tourism and manufacturing as well as the pursuit of intellectual property is something which we are in hot pursuit of and it's one which has the potential of greatly growing the economy. But mainly on manufacturing. We have for a long time been an economy which was resource-based and not so much one focused on manufacturing because it's a part of industrialization. The bigger industrialization pursuit, which we have embarked upon as Southern African Customs Union and also the whole of the African continent, we are seeking to industrialize. So, we are working a great deal and also funding initiatives in manufacturing and also creating a climate within which industrialization can flourish. Both domestically grown or even if it's foreign based or foreign invitation from outside the country. So that's really what I thought I could maybe share with you when it comes to growth. In terms of investment, Karen, that's going to stoke growth. Where's hot? What's not? Well, I think when I just think about the context of this panel, one of the concerns that I have is when I think about the investment strategy that worked brilliantly for the last since World War II to lift economies really out to transform them, it was export-led growth. I mean, that's what the Asian Tigers, Japan, out of World War II, China all replicated that. And if we think about a fragmented world with workforces that are declining in China, in Europe, in the United States growing slowly, that all points to automation. And there's been a lot of talk during this session here in Geneva about AI, but it's much more than that. It's human hand dexterity, it's sensors, all of which are disruptive. The discussion about reshoring, which has a lot of energy in North America, is predicated on automation. There simply isn't the labor to do that. In a world where things are reshored, supply chains shift, but it's automated at the bottom of production, the question is, how do countries begin to climb that ladder of manufacturing without that labor arbitrage that was so effective before? And I think that's something that I'm really concerned about when I think about development strategies. Not many countries have the scale of India, both internally with markets and externally. And so that, I think, is when we think about growth hot spots, it points to North America, to China, to those industries, but other markets will have to be more creative in the strategies that they pursue. So you're talking about being creative, you're talking about being more nimble. I'm thinking of Botswana who are much focused on diamonds, but there are big investments in infrastructure, aren't there? So also in technology, you mentioned tourism already. Tell us about those and the potential there for regional partnerships. It's mainly green technology, green energy. When we heard the whole world gravitating towards the abandonment of fossil fuel propelled machinery, we immediately set our sights on possibly playing a role in the production of electric machinery, electric vehicles. We accept that we are not in a position yet to manufacture full vehicle, but in terms of harnesses and components, which are electric-based, that's what we are embarking upon. We are looking more, have our sights on the wealth of minerals that we have deposits which can be useful in our support of the green technology. So we are really open. We're also very much open to solar energy because we receive about 3,200 hours of sunshine per annum. So it's another area which we, because we and Namibia are looking at. So it's an investment opportunity. But we are really hoping that there could be some research and innovation to make it more sustainable and less expensive to sustain the solar energy production. Because at present, we do quite know that, yes, it's well and good to the ears to embark upon, but the capital is quite a capital-intensive exercise and the challenges of storage of that kind of energy. So if there could be research, we are funding a lot of research and development. If there could be a breakthrough in the capacity to harness this energy and be a part of the greater scheme of the whole world of conducting our industrialization in a clean manner. So I'm really making an invitation to embark on green technology. We're not blessed with water, so we can't look into hydroelectric power. We are to some degree in the southwestern part, but it's not as great as the sun opportunity that is there. So those are some of the things that are really my contribution towards. So some big investment opportunities there, scope for partnerships. I wonder what the investment picture is like in Turkey, because you've got eye-watering inflation. You've also had the devastating earthquakes and the fallout about that, lots of uncertainty also about the upcoming presidential elections. How can all of that maybe impact the longer-term growth and investment outlook? First of all, we would like to thank the international community, especially the international business community, for supporting us, for standing with us during the earthquake and we are in the recovery. Secondly, inflation was high. It is declining very rapidly. It's being tamed. So, of course, it's a challenge for all the companies, but a country like Turkey, we are very flexible, agile, and I think we were able to adapt our business models and et cetera quickly. And election, yeah, sometimes for emerging markets it's like uncertainty, as you said, but I think for the case of Turkey, in the last two decades especially, we did many reforms. Our institutions are very strong. So for the investors, especially, we are speaking to international investors every day, but we don't have any questions. I mean, in the recent weeks, we have closed many deals. For example, tomorrow morning, we are going to announce a new investment in an R&D center of a multinational employing almost 1,000 people anyway. So I think that's not a big uncertainty. It's a kind of functioning democracy thing. So when it comes to growth, if you looked at the store of Turkey in the last two decades, compound annual growth rate is 5.4%. And as of the global economy, I think we managed to have a kind of remarkable growth. And this is what we hear all the time from international business community. Turkey has a resilient and fast growing economy. Of course, one of the reasons is that our commitment to the reform agenda in the last two decades and this is a continuous reform agenda and we will continue that agenda. Secondly, we have a deep, competent and competitive talent pool within the country, especially when we consider the global labor challenge, I think this is a very solid value proposition. Lastly, as I mentioned, we are at the necks of Europe, Asia and Africa. But this is not just the geography because we have been living in that geography for a long while, especially in the two decades, we invested a lot in the infrastructure. Energy, logistics, healthcare and education. And sometimes when we speak about infrastructure in digital markets, digital infrastructure is ignored sometimes. We have been investing in digital infrastructure as well. So, in addition to that, we, with our successful policies, we managed to develop Turkey as a powerhouse in the region. Turkey now is a regional manufacturing hub and we are driving our country to be an R&D hub in the region, to be a design house in the region. And all the global companies are now putting their regional management centers in Turkey, just as an example, in Turkey we have more than 600 multinationals having their R&D offices. So, we have around 100 multinational companies managing the region from Turkey. So, these are the long-term, fundamental, value proposition of Turkey and it will not change because of the short-term inflation. It will not be affected with the earthquake or elections. It will not change it. So, international investors are committed to our country and we believe that it will continue and this is the reason behind our successful growth. So, some real building blocks there, not just for Turkey, but for the region as well. You mentioned, Karen, China before and they said recently, right, they want to press the accelerator button when it comes to foreign diplomacy. How important do you think China is going to be to robust economic recovery and changing the investment picture to slope growth? Well, coming out of 2008, China was the engine of growth that dragged the world out of the financial crisis. It's not going to be that engine this time. Even the recent GDP numbers, over 4%, still relatively disappointing for hot growth coming out of COVID and I think that just shows some of the structural challenges that China has and as they've said, trying to transition their model to a more consumer-led one, dealing with government debt that is accumulated both nationally and regionally, that doesn't mean that China is an interesting for investors or doesn't have opportunities, but I don't see it as having that engine role pulling the world out of the global economy and it's symbolic of a more multi-polar world. There isn't a country at the apex that will have that position now or going forward. Is there a region at the apex? Is there a sector at the apex? There will be different regions that serve different roles. I think in this multi-polar world, certainly we see one hub around China, another around the United States that decoupling in terms of advanced technology is, I don't think, reversible in a meaningful way, but that doesn't preclude other parts of the world from having that sort of strength out to key out other areas. And I think, again, that's what's interesting. Is there an opportunity more regionalized to serve in a more localized interest? Saudi Arabia has done some very interesting investments in new energy along with traditional, obviously traditional fossil fuels and Ricardo Hausmann, who's here with us, has noted that the more diversity in exports you have, the better your development path. And so as we see countries begin to discuss how to find that diversity, there could be new hotspots. But I wouldn't say, as an investor or someone who works with investors, I certainly wouldn't say put it all on black with any country that's on the planet right now. Gosh, you're talking about the global economy and investing like a game of Russian roulette. Not Russian roulette. No roulette. You talked about investing in new technology, but I wonder where you see those new investment opportunities to unlock growth, because there isn't a one-size-fits-all, is there? There really isn't. And different regions, different countries have different challenges. Definitely. I mean, all the economies are in a different stage. And their competitive advantages are different. And sometimes focusing on some verticals may mislead us. When we encounter such question, I try to focus on some trends instead of some verticals. Of course, we value green economy, green energy, et cetera. And we talked about the period that we had in Turkey in the last two decades under the leadership of President Erdogan. A very big advantage of us, he's able to read the global trends very quickly and he's making those decisions. I mean, our story of green energy started 15 years ago, for example. Because of that reason, what we are seeing now, especially for the FDI inflows in the last three years, let me give you some specific figures. So one-third of the investments are coming from supply chain restructuring and one-third is coming from the technology startups. This is the digitalization of the economy. And when I refer to supply chain-related investments, first of all, companies are increasing their capacity within the country through expansions, through green-field investments. They are bringing their vendors or sometimes clients to Turkey. And another trend is to... It has been discussed that now we are talking about a more regionalization in the economy and reshoring, nearshoring, or Frenchhoring, whatever the name is. And when we look at the Turkey's effort, we are trying to create a region of stability and we are trying to integrate our geography, our neighborhood. We are ratifying in free trade agreements and et cetera. So this regional resilience and stability is quite important for us. So multinationals would like to use this opportunity to strengthen their supply chain. So the companies who were manufacturing in Turkey now they are bringing around post-manufacturing and pre-manufacturing activities to Turkey. So because this is important to make sure that their supply chain is functioning very well. A few words on the digitalization side. I think all the countries have to transform their industries with the new trends, I mean automation, digitalization. And this is a fact. So just another example. For example, in Turkey we have a very strong automotive industry. I mean we started manufacturing automobiles in 1960s. And now the automobile world is e-mobility. It is integrated, it is electrified, et cetera. So our policies are to encourage those companies to catch up with these trends and transform themselves. So my short answer is again the net trend to Turkey, let's say the supply chain changes are a major driving force of the FTIs. And secondly, that digitalization of the businesses, including those technology startups, are major drivers of investments and growth. So talking about those trends, you know, innovation ideas, implementation, these are things that forms like this have come to be known for. I mean what should policymakers be doing? What should businesses in emerging and developing economies do to turn all of these ideas into action? From a policymaker's perspective, you've got to pass policies which make it easy. Easy for investments to take root and once taken root for it to be sustained. You've got to pass policies which give assurance of safety of investments within territories. Investment protection. But conversely from the African context, we do things collectively in Africa. Our policies by and large are informed by what the African continent of retail area, the various agreements that come out or protocols which come out of it say. So it is very important to give assurance to investments and also have reduction or elimination of threats to security and peace. Have laws which are accessible and open and have courts which are or judicial systems which are independent to which investors can look when they feel a grift within the land within which they would have come in and invested. So I think those are really the things that we need as policymakers be looking into. But it's not just a question of having a policy. You've got to have to also fill it up and implement because a lot, many times we find ourselves with policies and laws, but we, the responsible leadership, simply giving it out and rolling out to the public, but then not ensuring or making sure that those that you leave us, the ones with which you implement that policy or law, actually working. Thought through. Thought through, actually working. So we need to keep an eye on it to be sure that these policies are not just many of the documents which get chained out, but yes, then get put away in shelves. So to make it meaningful. Make it meaningful. I want to use the last few minutes to see if there's anyone in our studio audience here who've got some questions for you. Anyone? I've got some questions. Yes, please stand up, sir, and say your name and please say who the question is for. Yes. My name is Shagawolo. I run the coordination of the African conditional free trade for public and private sector in Nigeria. Yes, I agree. A panel that is export lead growth that will really save the continent. That's why the leaders have signed the African continental free trade agreement area, the largest in the world, bigger than WTO for people to know. But my concern is really to do with automation vassals on employment. And I find that very challenging as we go forward. Last week I was in Kinshasha, DRC, and going through the road and seeing the population, I live in Lagos. I thought that was big and that was because the young, youthful population there tried to find employment for. But then seeing it in Kinshasha and right in my face there, I was like, wow, we really have a problem with this. And going forward, oh sorry, going forward, how do we use, well, go forward with digitalization and automation, but how do we also solve unemployment? Where are we going to create jobs for these young people if we start bringing automation into it? Let me just get the panel to quickly go through that because our time is running out. So I think we're actually just a quick fire response into that. How can you solve all of these? This is a very big debate. And what we see, the risk, it was discussed a lot. If you risk your people, according to the new business conditions, you don't have to fire anybody. So it is doable. And we witnessed that in many cases, this is happening in Turkey. So we are preserving employment at the same time. For example, last year we generated 1.8 million jobs in Turkey. So this is possible, I think, while digitalizing your economy, you can create jobs. Karen, it's a challenge. It is a challenge. When you think about the population, it's not a pyramid, it's a kite in Europe. And the lack of the bottom of the pyramid in North America, that's the incentive to speed up is in actually 35 to 45, that middle management. So automation solves a problem they face. Whereas, to your point, in Nigeria, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, when you have a proper population pyramid, you don't want to be truncating those jobs. I don't have a good answer, but I agree with you that that's a challenge. Over time, new sectors emerge, but in the transition period, that does represent a real headwind. I think intra-African trade, which you are encouraging at AFCFT, once we increase trade within Africa itself, it may well be or maybe result in automation not being such an, after all, such a challenge. Because unemployment at present is escalated by the fact that I think, by the fact that the way in which Africa has been trading for a long time, we've been really exporting raw materials into Europe and the Americas and not adding value, value addition being done elsewhere. But I think if it's done internally, we may find that automation then becomes not... I think what we've got to here is there are lots of different variables and the conversation, I'm sure, is going to continue afterwards. We've been talking about the outlook for growth and investment with a fantastic panel. I'm going to go to Stella, to Burak Daglu and to Karen Harris from Beyn and Co. It's been upbeat, it's been interesting and I think that we've all got a lot to take home with us. Thank you all very much from the Growth Summit 2023. Thank you very much.