 We have the risk warning on the screen here. Let's just get through that. Okay. Any questions at all? Please feel free just to use the chat window or the Q&A window, and I'll address them as best I can. Again, my name is Jasper Lawler, market analyst here. I'm going to cover some of those sort of major markets typically traded with CMC markets clients. Probably the most sensible place to start just with equity markets and why not start here in the UK? Quite the volatile week last week. For those of you who attended last week's webinar, we had been talking about a double top pattern here. Not often that they work out just so aggressively. Obviously their target for this double top was closer to 6500, I believe. It's obviously collapsed all the way down. And seeing a good recovery today, technically we can put it down to this being the kind of extreme in sentiment back in October. And then on the 16th, that was the opening price, and then we had a big breakthrough there. So it's kind of that high and that opening price in this instance is kind of a zone of potential demand coming back in the market when you come back down, and that's what we're seeing. And if we pop over to the short-term chart, you can see at the moment we're just getting a bit of reaction from we've got the 21-hour moving average and then this prior low. So you know what you see in a downtrend, isn't it? You see a new low form. You bounce higher, break lower, come back, and that previous high will often test the prior low. So these are the kind of when you get an extreme trend like that, these are the kind of golden opportunities when you get a kind of bounce back like that. And obviously it's not always perfect, but as long as you've got the direction of the trend right and you've got your risk above a prior high, then you're potentially set to benefit. We've moved above this little short-term high here, so I think perhaps this move that we're seeing is going to be a bit more substantial than some of these that we saw last week. And you know, it's one of the worst weeks we've had in years for stock markets, and so we're just getting a bit of a bounce back today. Not entirely unrelated to the fact that all prices are a bit higher today. We've got Brent's up around 1.8%, WTI up around 1%. I just posted a longer-term look at Brent. We have a quick look at that here, because obviously part of the reason that we've had these declines in the indices is because of the energy shares involved there and then the kind of repercussions that the low energy prices have across industries related to these energy stocks. So definitely worth, even if you're not trading or, even though it's in a very strong trend, even if you're not trading it, worth following it because it's certainly a big influence on markets at the moment. This is a monthly chart, very simple, simply done obviously. But these were the significant levels that we recently broke through. You can see we've obviously got a touch there. You can see this monthly chart. I've got a rebound, but it came straight below, and this is actually a 200 month moving average, and you can see it kind of as the stopping point of the collapse in 2008. So it could be again, and we obviously right are around this $60 mark, which is what a lot of the oil ministers have been talking about from oil producing countries as a potential bottom in prices. So $60 could be a place that we get a bit of a bounce. But again, you can see from 2008 the extent that it's possible to fall in oil or any market. So really ideally you probably want to be looking for some signs of exhaustion, such as a sort of long wood candle, kind of hammer type pattern, as you see here, before going substantially along the market. Obviously in the short term it's slightly different, and you can see some little areas of opportunity, but even here, how I liked it before, that you get kind of engulfing candles like this, but against the trend in a sharp trend like this it doesn't go too far. What we had over the weekend all was that some of the oil ministers referenced no change in policy at OPEC, even if oil prices dropped to 40, and basically dismissing the chance of any emergency OPEC meeting to change the decision that was reached, not to cut production. So back to the indices. This is the Germany 13, this is the Bayley chart, just looking at some Fibonacci levels here. You can see there's a bit of a confluence taking place if you're just using the low here, because we had kind of two spikes. It's a bit, you could use this or this, but I tend to not want to use such a kind of extreme spikes when they're so far away from the body of the candlestick. And if you do use just the low prices of these two candlestick, these are the clothes here and the low here of this candlestick that triggered the kind of up move. Then we see this confluence in around here, and it does just correspond with this prior kind of little peak that we had here. So we've already got a bit of a bounce there, but potentially we could see still a slight move lower down to this sort of 9-5-20 type area. The big one this week in terms of European data will probably be on Wednesday. We have the CPI data, and that's expected to be 0.3%, and probably just going to add to calls for the European Central Bank to increase monetary stimulus. That's a good thing for the Germany 30, typically. You know, any increased chance of stimulus, and that probably partially explains why the Germany 30 has not crashed off under the weight of lower oil prices quite the way the UK 100 has. Obviously in the future we have BP and Shell and some other large, you know, all energy type companies. And we also have North Sea oil, so we are sort of partial producers of oil in the UK, so not necessarily complete beneficiaries of the lower oil prices as a nation. Switching over to the US, they've seen their fair share of sell-off here for those of you trading the US 30. I like to use this 55, but it's pretty similar to the 50 period SMA, and you can see we're finding a bit of support off there at the moment, and it does kind of correspond to, you know, we moved through this high, it's a former all-time high. What we've actually ended up finding support as was just really kind of this low slash the, just the, you can see on these three candlesticks here, they all have kind of a close and open, and a close and an open, sorry, in similar vicinity, and that's kind of what we're finding some support at the moment in that little confluence of area. But, you know, if you're talking about highs and lows, it's definitely the trend has turned lower. So it's a matter of whether, you know, this short downtrend can be broken and we can resume the long-term uptrend. You know, you've probably got a default towards assuming that the uptrend is going to continue because still the liquidity conditions are pretty ample from the central banks, but I think we're just in a bit of a scare off, partly because of these oil prices, but I think also largely just because it's been a certain period of time since the Fed have turned off their QE, and even though during this period we saw an increase in QE from the Bank of Japan, there's been an increase in political uncertainty over there, that's been reduced somewhat because Prime Minister Abe in Japan got re-elected with a large majority this weekend. Theoretically, that would mean that his mandate for increasing his QE program has been sort of substantiated by the voters, so a couple of markets to look at. Japan was obviously the yen, but I was going to have a look at the Nikkei. And that was just a longer term. Interesting thing, I thought, we just had this channel taking place on the Japan 225, and we're just running into a bit of support in that area. So potentially this re-election could trigger some further stimulus, perhaps not monetary because we only just did have an increase to the QE program from Japan a few weeks ago. So it might actually end up being more of a sort of parliamentary sort of increase in government programs, that kind of thing, which should be good for Japan listed companies, but not quite as sort of globally beneficiary of such global benefit. Dolly Yen, it's not necessarily trading off this Japanese election. We are seeing some kind of positive sentiment, but it's towards the dollar, obviously not the yen. And if the election was kind of a good thing for Japan, you'd kind of expect the yen to appreciate. But what I guess this could be indicating is that our part of his policy, or part of his three-hour policy is essentially weakening the yen to quantitative easing. So this may be all we see in terms of the correction from the Dolly Yen rally. The big one will be this kind of 1735, I have it as, but you could argue it's just this low here, or even this low that's been formed recently. A break in this vicinity is going to be A, B, C. And then we're looking closer to this 55, I may down here somewhere, maybe towards these lows. But I'm assuming we might get a bit of a run higher, and then a big test will be up in the 120 vicinity. That's when we'll start running. And you can see on the RSI highlighted in a prior webinar, this kind of oversold area. You can see on the last time with that run-up and then the kind of correction we had to run and then correct back to the area then and down lower. This initial correction has been a bit larger, so it may not quite have the energy to get back up there, and if it does, maybe it's on the way to higher prices. But it's definitely worth monitoring this sort of overbought area, about 70 on the daily RSI for the Dolly Yen. You see a move off there, and then you see prices start to roll over. It's just a confluence of indications that maybe we're just going to get, and we're going to see that kind of A, B, C, the next leg down. So I was talking about global central banks, obviously. One of the points of concern is the Fed ended QE. Then we had the Bank of Japan adding some stimulus. Then we had the ECB giving strong indications that they might be about to introduce a QE program of their own. There was definitely a distinct amount of disappointment when that didn't happen, and that was kind of running around here was when the ECB didn't announce anything on the meeting. We sort of drifted lower, but just wasn't able to sustain below $123. We've seen a good correction higher, and we're just struggling a bit at this round number $125. We do have this European CPI, but also the big data this week is German confidence data, which would be a bit more supportive of a stronger euro, potentially just because we've seen a bit of a recovery in the ZEW and the German iPhone in last month's readings. So if that continues, if investor and business sentiment is improving a bit there, that's good for the eurozone economy. It's a leading indicator, and that could be the catalyst to see that alongside a lack of action from the ECB at the last meeting could be a catalyst for the euro to run higher. I think it definitely correlates. This run higher in the euro definitely correlates to the move lower that we've seen in the DAX and other European indices, the Germany 30 as we call it, just in that the ECB haven't actually got on and done some actual government or government bond purchases or even corporate bond purchases or even just indicated that there's a certain timeline or a certain set of conditions needed, and then the QE program will begin. It's all a bit up in the air at the moment. So lots of talk of possibilities and definitely saying that the QE is a possibility but not actually come out and set it. So that alongside on the same topic of central banks, China kind of offset their interest rate cut with some more tightening in terms of sort of loan requirements. So a bit of easing here, a bit of tightening there, kind of offset each other so it would not so much stimulus. And then just the fact that the non-farm payrolls data that we saw from the Fed, let's have a look at the SVX while we're talking about that, was pretty good. I mean the best in years. And we saw some impressive retail sales data at the end of last week, wage data that accompanied the NFP data was also good. So data indicating that the U.S. economy is getting a lot better is just fuel for the Fed tightening interest rates, raising rates sooner than might otherwise have been anticipated. So not only have they ended QE, but they managed to be ending the zero bound interest rate policy sooner than was expected. And that's just caused a bit of a pullback in markets. That's my take on it. A bit of an equity driven story which largely explains the run-up in prices that we've had in the last couple of years. Last few years. This was just a weekly chart along the time perspective. You see this in a lot of the indices here, but I thought it was quite pronounced in the S&P. See similar patterns sort of here, maybe here, not quite as long. But you know, around the kind of tops you can get these kinds of patterns. So certainly the first sign of a larger correction, whether that correction actually takes place, it could even just be something like this. Or it just gets reverses and we see new highs by the end of the week. Remains to be seen, but it's something to be aware of when buying into this dip, like this weekly pattern. It's quite a big week for the UK. A big parameter for that is the cable. Now we can see technically at the moment, this is a daily chart, obviously. Again, I've just kind of got my lines of potential resistors drawn in from these prior lows. And just the kind of what I thought was the kind of two beginnings of this kind of sideways congestion area. You can see it's basically worked again here. That in confluence with this declining trend line is where we're seeing prices come off at the moment. And quite a week looking candle. And also just not quite making it over this 50 level, denoting an uptrend. As you can see, it's failed there. And there they are assigned the 50 and then we're coming again. Look setting up for another failure. On the short-term chart, it did look a bit more positive. We were holding above the moving average, but then dropped off fairly significantly today. Not really necessarily on any particular data driven by today, but more in perhaps preparation for tomorrow. We've got the bank stress test results from the Bank of England. We have the Bank of England financial stability reports and what was it? A blank here. Let's pull up the calendar. CPI data, was it? Apologies. This is when you have these little lapses is when the old CNC markets calendar comes in. It was CPI. Okay, I thought so. So that kind of inflation data, obviously kind of setting up for how urgent it is for the Bank of England to actually act. And we'll have the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday, as well as the unemployment rate, average earnings. So with the inflation plus the unemployment and earnings data together plus the minutes of the last meeting a couple of weeks ago, give us a pretty good clue going into the end of the year where the Bank of England are going to be in terms of their first rate hike. It's looking at the moment like Bank of England are a fair bit behind the US, but economic data has actually improved a little bit in the UK since the policy decision just in the last couple of weeks, saw some better PMI data, for example. So I think that's partly why the Bank of England are going to be changing their policy in terms of when they release all this data next year. They're kind of putting all the releases together. Just to avoid this kind of pointless two-week lag where we're looking at a decision that was made on two-week-old data, they're going to release the minute. I'm not quite sure if this starts in 2015 or 2016, 2015 or 2016, but they're going to be releasing the minutes at the same time as the statement. So then you have a much better idea of what the decision at least has a much better feeling as to how it all came together. And when there's the quarterly and inflation report, that will come out at the same time as well, obviously once quarter. So yeah, this trend line is key for cable at the moment. We've come off it pretty strong here. It looks like it's going to hold, but if we were to see some kind of bounce above, that's when we could start seeing a move up to 158 type area and potentially this 158, 75. But the trend is still very much kind of down on a slightly longer term basis. That would be significant breaking above this high. That would be something along the lines of a double bottom pattern, but it's a bit messy. It looks more really like a continuation pattern at the moment. So I think the assumption probably is that we're going to break the lows. Now, we talked briefly about, I think I showed you the Brent chart. Let's have a look at oil. We had already talked about it, but let's have a look at the shorter time frame. We've breezed through all these longer term levels. It's all the same thing on the Brent chart. This is WGI. It almost looks like it's a sort of bare flag, but it doesn't quite make. You can really call this a trend. This is a bit of an aberration. And this is a bit of a kind of long extended flag. More of a kind of wedge. And so the height of this pattern, we've probably about seen. You can do it using this Fibonacci tool. It's not exactly how it's intended to be used, but it kind of serves the purpose. So if we take that height of the pattern there, extend it to the breakout area, 100% would come in right around that sort of 46-type mark. And you'll see these are the lows at the end of the sell-off around 40. So we potentially could still have some ways to go. You can see this has worked a little bit so far. Where we bounced off there was this 61.8% of the pattern was marked to that. If that correction ended at 50, move lower. So 100 could be the next stop. So again, keep that in mind. If you've gone along the market, you've got to have some deep pockets to withstand any movements in time being. CFTC caught state on the futures market for oil has suggested that a lot of hedge funds and speculators are increasing their bullish bets on oil. Just seeing lower prices and the idea that it's got to turn around eventually. But you could still feel a bit of pain before that does happen. But it's really the same story in terms of oil. We're not going to have any kind of drastic change. We're going to see the inventories data from the U.S. on Wednesday. But really, we had a couple of reports last week indicating global demand. It's going to be waning in 2015. We're not going to see another update from the International Energy Agency for another month. But even if we do, it's probably only going to be to the downside. And the supply picture remains the same for the time being. At some point, you'd imagine some of these U.S. shale producers are going to start coming off line. There might be some more prominent reports on that. In which case, supply is being gradually reduced. That kind of readjusts the supply demand imbalance that we're seeing at the moment. Quite a look at gold. I had this potential bull flag on the short term. So we're on the four-hour chart here just to give you the slightly long-term pictures that we had this declining trend line, which is not perfect. Didn't quite reach it here. It's more like the moving average that worked on that occasion. But we saw a move above the 50-day moving average, held the 21, break the trend line. So quite a good setup in terms of a break higher. And then that corresponded on the short-time frame with a, we could deem a kind of quite nice channel that broke higher, part of a potential bull flag. Then again, I've used the same Fibonacci tool to project a potential target of the pattern up here, 1285. But we've just been tracking down back towards the long-term trend line. And if we move back below the trend line, the pattern's not looking so good on the short term. But if we can hold this, this is a potential area of demand, potential swing area for the price. And then obviously the next test will be to break the high. And then we'll be looking a bit better for reaching that pattern objective. Okay. Well, I think we're running into the last few minutes here. Is there any particular products anyone else would like me to cover that I haven't done so already? I've really mainly just covered the sort of main things that are of interest to CNC clients. For those of you who trade currencies, worth straying out of your usual comfort zone, because look at this chart in the dollar rubles, it's getting absolutely obliterated here. If you're a trend follower, this is the stuff of dreams. Obviously at some point it's got to sell out. If you're one of those people that likes to sell into strength, well, good luck on this occasion. It's just going up by 2.5%, 150 to 200 pips every day. But at some point you're going to see this has got to capitulate a bit. There's got to be a strong reaction, I would imagine. Once it finds its top, I think it will probably fall right down to 50 again as a round number. Just getting a quick chat question here. Will the DAX see a rebound this week? It's going to be largely contingent on these couple of data points, I believe. What I haven't mentioned, which is probably the most important thing of the week, which apologies for that, will largely determine sentiment. I've sort of alluded to it, but I didn't actually mention it expressly, is the statement from the US Fed. Obviously that's not so European related, but all these global indices are fairly tied in together. And this fall in liquidity, as I mentioned, because of the drawback from QE from the Fed, is what I believe to be largely behind this move lower in stocks. So if we see this better data, the better employment wage retail sales data, leads the Fed to remove their considerable time language from their statement or something of a similar line. Maybe they change it, but keep it a bit. A move away from that, I think that's probably the trigger for the next leg lower in markets. That meeting's on Wednesday. It's going to be a bit more than normal, because it's the Fed's statement, it's the economic projections, and the press conference. So what I suspect could happen is that maybe we'll still leave the language in there, even though this would be as good a time as any to remove it, to sort of imply how long it will be until they do their first rate hike. There's a considerable period of time for now. I think they perhaps don't want to rock markets into the end of the year, particularly after this sell-off. So they might not remove it, but I suspect they may substantially improve their economic projections. We're going to see this kind of dot-plot in terms of when they think, what do they think interest rates will be at the end of 2015 and the end of 2016. And I think they'll probably increase those projections. So they'll probably give us a warning that they're moving towards the bigger rate hike just through those projections. And so that may be enough to kind of keep markets happy, and that could be a cause for a rebound, not only in U.S. markets, but also the DAX and the FTSE as well, to some extent. So it's going to be pretty data-dependent as always. And there is just a lot of data crammed into this week, because basically next week is Christmas, so it's still getting done this week. But it should make it for a good week of trading. Get all your trades in done this week, and then have a rest over Christmas. If that's it, thank you all very much for attending. Good luck with the trading this week. As I said, this is Jasper Lawlet signing off for this week. Thank you.