 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Basil Chapman here on this Tuesday, the 3rd of October. And what we're looking at here is low lows and low highs. That's kind of the theme and this is most important because we'll finally start to see the weekly charts get sell signals and they might be upgraded to sell modes by Friday, this coming Friday. Even if we get a turnaround, that doesn't mean to say that you can't keep going lower. Just at the moment. That's the way it is at this particular point. I thought there was just a chance and I said to subscribers, we're only wanting to buy the index itself on a very sharp pullback. But in the meantime, back in the ranch, down 223 or 33,210. So it's taken out yesterday's low of 33,210. The low so far today is 33,207. So that is seeing the MACD very weak. Stochastic is 13%. The unbalanced form is going to be extremely oversold. That doesn't mean to say it has to turn, but this is my one indicator says watch closely because this is the indicator that for me can give a tremendous amount of instant turnaround indication. That's the operation. That's the way it works. Meantime, the weekly chart 9 has gone under the 14. That's the 9-speed moving average under the 14, but it's a weekly chart. This whole bar is a weekly bar. You have to wait until Friday. Actually, you have to wait until Monday before it closes and you start fresh. So in the meantime, MACD's turned down Stochastic set 23%. Unbalanced volume is still high. That is a big quandary for me. Does it say that the unbalanced volume needs to go all the way down to an oversold level? Or can you have a balance from here? Well, we don't have to deal with it now because it's a daily chart. That's your little speedboat that turns around before the cruiser can turn. And then of course, you've got your super tanker. The monthly chart takes a long time to actually turn. Meantime, back at the ranch, we're looking at the S&P. I want to go through these now because it is really imperative to be able to get some sense of market conditions. And then I can start talking about the stocks that seem to have held okay over the last couple of days. More importantly, the S&P is down 38 to 42.50. Now look, the S&P is down 0.9%. The Dow is down 0.7%. So the S&P is a little bit weaker. But it hasn't taken out the 42.38.63 low of five sessions ago, watching that closely. But here you can see the weekly chart. You see that S? That means that on a weekly basis, intro week. It's not the end of the week. It's not Friday. Intro week for the first time since it crossed positive. And it just briefly went negative for a brief moment that was in January of this year, the week of the 6th of January. And it had just gone pink for about a week. And then it went positive again since then. This 9b moving average has not crossed negative. And I have to tell you, when a weekly chart starts to turn negative, yes, if the main trend is on the way up, then you look at it and say, could it be a brief turnaround? And then we go back to green. But when you've had a dreaded age and you've done almost, in fact, you've done your almost one to one to the arch high. Remember, I drew this in a couple of weeks ago. I said, look, the height of this particular, let's go right there, the 28th of July, 4607.07 was the high. Look, the MACD was strong. The stochastic was very good. Pull back just a little bit. We're still very strong in the 90% area. The unbalanced volume was about to give a reversal right on that bar. And then what happens is it pulls back, goes under the 14-period moving average rallies. And within five weeks, it gives a nice balance. But all it does is it gets to 44, oops, 45, 41. And then it starts to arch over in the pattern that I always talk about. I shouldn't have said that, but I did. I'm sure we've got a lot of new people. We've got a new host today at two, and a lot of people are now tuning in. If they tuned in for Peter Bruno, then there's a chance that they're also going to start listening more to the intraday shows. So you'll take that as an advantage for TFNN. And we're looking at patterns straight line up, straight line down, cup formation, arch formation, and a mix of one and two or one and three. And that is number one and three, where it comes straight down, straight line. There it is, straight line, makes an arch. There it is, number three, takes out this left side low, often makes only a peak A or a B and then fails. And if that happens, you can have a one-to-one to the downside. In other words, the measured move from the arch high to the base and then from the base down again. Well, lo and behold, arch high to the base. Now we're on the way down. Now you don't want to one yet, but I've got to be really careful. Why? Because I was telling you that this right side had a weak MACD, a deflected lower. Stochastic was really weak. It had gone from 90% down to the 60% area. On balance volume made a little inverted V-shaped pattern, a little pyramid, and came down lower. And now you've got the nine-period moving average, just inch a week turning down. But wait a minute. Look at the QQQ. In the X100, down 3.25 or 358 right now. And look at this weekly chart. Made a peak here. Remember, Chapman Wave peak D. What happened to this part? This last peak D right here. Peak D, peak D. Look at that turn down. It went below the left side low. Now it's trying to come back. If it's a straight line move, very often it comes back to see how it can hold above this base of support. In the E-mini one-minute chart. And that's at 42.93. We're at 42.91 right now. Wow. This is really quite a story. So now, and you've got your Eiffel Tower straight up, straight down off the, some kind of news at 8.30 or 10 o'clock. And that's what we call the Eiffel Tower. Straight up. Straight down. And doji candle. Look at this. This is a 10-minute chart. And look at this. Look how important the 200-period moving average is. Here it's been resistance, resistance, resistance. And here, that's the one-minute chart. Look at the 10-minute chart. Oh, I love this. Look at that. That 200-period moving average, it was an area of support, then resistance. Resistance. Resistance, resistance, resistance. All the way through until about four o'clock this morning. Then it pops up once, goes through PE, comes back down, tests it, hugs it, hugs it, hugs it. Whoosh, it comes back down. On this last round, you couldn't even get close to that 243.22. So this is a really important session. I have to tell you that now. Let me just move this back again. So we're going apples to apples. And here we go. Okay. So what we're looking at here is the QQQ, the nine-breed moving average is still green positive. Let me just show you this in the chart that I like to focus on. So let's go there and we'll go QQQ. One, two, three. There it is. You can see holding very nicely, but starting to turn down. For the first time, you see the black 14-breed moving average was flat while the green one was still positive. Now the black 14-breed moving average is starting to tilt down. It means that you've got a combined trajectory to the downside. And yet that nine is still holding at this point. I would say 35. 35. 355 is probably the area where that on a weekly basis across is making it beyond the year. I'll be right back as a chapter. The beginning of October with some pretty good action. I'll be back in a moment. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. Hi, folks. So, Basel, could you just review your overall positions, longer term positions? Yeah, so I'll do what I can right now as the subscribers. Let me just go through this real quickly. So, we are short to Dow, and we remain short to Dow. We're actually short from the exact high of August the 1st, and we hold that position. But at the same time, long term, we long store the diamonds from the March 2020 low, and we store long diamonds and the UDOW from the low of October this past year. Within that, we've got that short position. Each one of those we got on the day of the low, so we managed to get the high. It gave us a little bit of a cushion because we absolutely would have got stopped out if I kept a tight stop and hadn't got that exact position because that big spike on the 10th of August, huge spike up to 35,578, 100 points off the exact high of that last move. Thank goodness we were able to hold that position, and we are short still the semiconductors from two points off the all-time high. And that was back on July 31, and the next day had another very good candle closed. It went underneath the previous Dow G high of the all-time high, the previous candle, so before the open we went short, just over 159 remain short. And we've had the SOX as we didn't get the SOX again, but even now, the S-series are telling me that we're getting really close to some kind of, how can I put it, some kind of a test of the internal strength. I'm not saying a major bounce or anything, and the reason I say that because you've done your one-to-one to the short side within that context, it's gone underneath the Chadwave inside track, repellent zone of the weekly chart, it's trying to get above it, and it's not, and I suspect it's just a little bit more weakness, and then that comes for a big test. The stochastic in the weekly chart is down at 18%, and yet the on-balance volume is still quite good. We might have to see that before this is all over. The on-balance volume, look how it gave that beautiful turnaround back in December of 2022, right at the end of December, to confirm the move to the upside. So all I'm saying is, semis need us up, semis need us down, they showed a little bit of strength yesterday, and you can actually see it translated because with the weakness that we see right now, the day is young, the S&P is down 43 points just in the time that we've been on the air. It's down a little bit further, it's trying to rally now, and the Dow is down 258. I would have told you that under these conditions, at this particular point where you've got the waterfall cascade to the downside in gold, I would have anticipated that if there was a big move down today, and the day is young, we could have a two-in-one day where we are down into the noon time hour, and whatever we're down, we double that to the downside in the afternoon if this weakness persists, but I see some buying coming in, and we'll see how that unfolds. In the meantime, back at the ranch, I would have thought that the Dow would have been down about 550 at this particular point, and the S&P about 68 to 73 points, and then we would get the very ugly close. But also, it's very seldom when you get major, major turnarounds, not on a weekend or a Friday or a Monday. In the middle of the weekend happens, it doesn't happen that often. So I'm not anticipating that we get some kind of major turn around here. I'm anticipating that this, and the reason why we grabbed the long position on this pretty serious sell-off this morning with a very tight stop, is because I see rotational strength, and it keeps coming into different stocks at different times, and that very often allows you to hold the big downside or the big upside when you've got some stocks that are actually rallying, like within the Dow, we've got, say, Microsoft's very sharply lower, UNH is down, but you do have some, I can't find it, Home Depot's down six. Let me just see. I don't think there's the updated one. Let me just check it right now so that I'm talking apples to apples. Yeah, you've got some Dow stocks that are just very, very slightly down, and some are actually rallying a little bit, some of the previously weaker ones. And that's what I mean. Sometimes it just creates an imbalance and that imbalance favors that you don't accelerate to the trend that it's going in. All right. So, yeah, let me do this because I don't want to really forget about it. These people are good enough to ask me questions. I'm going to answer them. So, where do I get into Eli Lilly? Those are the questions. It's been a question for a little while, and I've said, let's just have patience because I think, to me, Yala, forgets to the H5, I think I said 839 to 832 area, and that yesterday, I think I looked at it or it was a Friday. I said, still not ready. You see this 14-period moving average in the weekly chart? Eli Lilly, LLY's a symbol down 15 and 522. 518 is the 14-period moving average. Look how well it held all the way through that congestion period going into the summer before all that news came about, the new drugs, the large farmers, the farm. I mean, they have a fantastic lineup. And I said, yes, this is something you want to be looking at for longer-term portfolios, but you have to have patience because if it's your first position, if it's a second position or third, and you already have it for way down in the 200 or 300s, that's something completely different. But for a new position, I think you have to have patience and I would take the new position and I would skate it. I might have two. I might even have three entries into it, but there would be entries that you plan. It's not that you are adding to a losing position. You have a good feeling that you can get in once and you would like a pullback. You don't have a good feeling that you want to get into your third position. You prefer to get only into the two or sometimes even into the one. We've had that earlier this year and last year we had some fantastic rallies in positions we had and we didn't have the full position. I'm not complaining. I don't think my subscribers are complaining. Yes, we could have done that what I often talk about where you can double up and triple up on the way up because you've got the buy signal and buy mode, but you can't have a newsletter like that because you make them vulnerable. You can have some people that have never bought anything and they love what you do and they say, I didn't get that one and a double, for instance, the people who had missed on my UBC position in the 360s and it skyrockets to 577. Wonderful percentage. We've been taking bits off all the time with Tadoff here and Tadoff there because I would rather have over the period of the year just really good gains, really solid gains and basically beat the benchmarks and have a bit of comfortability. Even today, we got into a position and we've had in the 21 area, it went all the way to the 60s and we got out and out and now we've got core position, smaller core position and we try to get it today. It acted so nicely for a few days. I said, I think it's acting well enough to start a position but we're going to have a very tight stop. It capped down off the beautiful session yesterday after three nice sessions before that. It capped down. We must have been in for a split second. I hate that. Maybe we didn't even have a chance to, you know, put in the stock before it was taken out. It was like that. I don't like that. But it was very tight stop and we'll deal with it. The Dow got down to 667 and I'm going to say to you, let's hold off on Eli Levy. I think as of this post of 515 area, 518, let's look at it again. Let's look at it again. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing it number two for the year. An amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability Newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 Days Risk-Free Today. TFNN Educating Investors Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or at TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Okay, so that was Eli Lo. I actually wanted to show you the VIX. The VIX now is up huge. It's up $1.84 at $19.45. It's down $300. This is kind of the thing you see when the Dow is down probably $4.60 to $5.20. So there's a little bit of over-anticipation in the volatility index. Yes, in the Chapman Wave methodology, I do put the notation, but remember, this is an emotional indicator. So you can get, look, yes, a peak C, the coronavirus business fed. This is back in 2020. This is actually March of 2020. This is when we went along. The diamond's still along that position. And yet it is again on this big move up in 2022, peak C, and then it came down and made lower lows. So it doesn't work. Sometimes it does, but that's purely coincidental. And mostly I use it just to show the indicator, and I use the 200-period moving average in the dating, which is well above, which is at $17.62. And the month, and the weekly, which is at 2041, which I think will be a target at some point. So yeah, I know a lot of people are thinking there's going to be some kind of a turnaround. Let me explain what I'm looking at here. If you look at the dollar, and a question came in about the dollar, what do I think about the dollar? Well, first of all, we're along the dollar. We're along from, have a look at this. This is very interesting. We're along from here. This is February of 2018. In the 8080, we went along in 90.07. It went to 102.99 and pulled back. I had to change this because it gets smoothed out. So let me just see if it's still 102.99. Then dropped to 89.21. But my UUP, this is the dollar bull, this is the fund that you can trade the dollar index, held the stock, and we kept it, and ran all the way to the last high. I forgot to type this in. 114.178 in September of 2022. 114.78, let me just type that in. 114.78, and that was 9.20. Why did I say it was 22? All right. So, and then it pulls back again, goes to just under 100. And now it's in this cup formation. Remember, I'm always looking at cup formation. Double top, 103.82 back in 2017. 102.99 in 2020. And then it comes back down. The low of 88.23 wasn't taken out because it went to 89.21. And then what happens is it runs up to 114. Pulls back. So, as I'm looking at it, the simple things to say in a bull phase, you look for higher highs and higher lows. It doesn't have to be higher lows, but they don't take out the low. But mostly you have higher highs. And then I can do the counter wave ABCD. It could go to E, F and G, but D is your objective. And it got to D there in 2017. It got to E in 2020. And it went to, this is an alternate count, SNS-C. And the reason why I did it is because the UUP did go in a smoother way to a leg F and then a peak F. But the UUP is telling me that the prices way above the, this is a monthly chart. The prices way above the nine period moving average. The nine is way above the 14. The bank D was not as strong as it was and that big high that back in July, August or whatever it was September. Yes, September of last year. But look, it is good. The stochastic is kind of weak in the monthly chart. It is running at 50%. On-balance one is kind of weak. So as I'm looking at it here, I'm saying we've seen this so often. The cup formation invariably, if you're making higher highs and higher lows, the rule of thumb is within this rectangle from the flag, you can have a cup formation and the cup formation says, whoops, right there to the little dirty counter, up and around. It says you can get a little bit of a left-sided, like within a rectangle you can get high highs and high lows. And if that's the case, it's very often that there's a rally just under, right on, or just above that left side high and the UUP, that left side high was 20. Oops, get it right here. It was right there. 30.76 in September, 30.76. I'll just type that in here. So I don't have to keep doing that. 30.76 and we're at 29.98. We're not very far from it, but in the currencies, that's a long way to go. So my suspicion is that we're going to go towards it. I wouldn't be surprised if this particular candle here will be a lot. There will be a lot of resistance, maybe even before that, which is at 30.43, the candle of November. All right, within that context, let's look at the USDJPY. On a very short basis, the reason why I wanted to go long this morning with a tight stop in one of the indexes is that did I type that? Oh, type that. The reasoning is that I think the dollar is getting very close to some kind of resistance very near-term just for a bit of a breather. But if you're looking at the USDJPY currency pair, this rectangle that gives you a lopsided gravy cup formation is doing exactly what this particular technique in the Chapman Wave strives to do. Not every single time, but I have to tell you I can't give you a percentage. But I'm sure from my mind it's over 80%. It goes just under, right on, or just above, if it goes for two out of three bars, that's a matter of a timeframe, closes above the left side high, but as it is, it's going to get to this level. You're at 148.97, down 0.93, and this is the monthly chart. Look at the daily chart. Leg E reverses. Leg E, last time it reversed at an E then it went to an F and then pulled back made a lower low and then started a brand new move. There's your Chapman Wave folding exclamation break out to the upside. We just had a little mini one there and we're in a leg D almost at the left side high as a target. So I'm looking at this and saying there's a chance of getting kind of close to you. Let me put it together with a TLT. So the TLT took out the left side low. When it does that you've got two out of three bars in which to get back to, at least try to get back in this case to 91.85. This is the second bar in the weekly chart that is underneath 91.85. It's at 86.09, down 83. 83 cents. This is this is tough because this is just saying to me you've got your on balance volume the blue line. This is a weekly chart over oversold but statistics at 7% when it's at 70% that's the equivalent of being at 93% where I say flat and at 93% is really bullish in this case not flat yet it's still accelerating down it just doesn't tell me that I've got a huge turnaround in bonds just yet and that's a problem that's a real problem right? So on a very short-term basis we're getting close to levels that say just the elastic band is stretched enough to have a little bit of a balance but that is just I don't have any indicator yet to say that it's going to do that. Next question came in, what about the gap in the GDX now? I'm just off hand I can't remember exactly where the gap was what the number was I know I looked at it before but I suspect even here based on my on balance volume the statistics at 7% in the gold minus ETF at 26.14 up 16 cents I'll talk about it when we get back because I think this is getting ready for at least an attempt to have a balance just about the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI GDX, The Dollar Bonds, The South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report 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Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ I'm just doing this I don't like to keep these patents up for too long it just says to me that it's very easy to see for my purpose it gets a little messy so you have the chapter on the falling axe formation that I was talking about earlier on this is the inversion it goes from an arch formation to a second arch takes out the left side low look at the beautiful proportion of the left side to the right side to that low right there then you just click it like this you go to the right man look at that it just says that that weakness you've just taken out really important support right there look at that plum line right there to the penny to the day it takes it out it's green way up and now what we've got is the area 2565 would be the one to one base of this falling axe formation but believe me it could go all the way from there lower down so all I'm looking at here is to say that in the context of support levels let me just draw this particular trend line here to show you that this is the pattern that I would look at come on there must be a lot of trading going on because okay so this is the channel with inside track there we go inside track propellant zone look every time the gdx has gone to this little range right here there's a mini channel called channel inside track the reason why I say Chapman Wave always is because it's part of my technique part of something I use all the time and here we are it's got a hold so this is kind of an important moment now what I wanted to look at is within this context using the gdx to go minus look at silver I mean silver was leading the pack I remember with Tom's webinar that he did 40 subscribers to the gold report talking about saying silver don't be surprised if silver acts weaker than gold it's been strong with if he said looking at volume and he was correct and look at that silver arching over like this and in the weekly chart so and the monthly chart finally for the first time in a while has gone yes but the month is still just begun the month I'm not going to talk about it but it's interesting it got so close that at this particular point the continuous silver contract monthly chart has joined the others by having the nine period moving average going under the 14 so it's going to be a work in progress because yes this left side low is going to be very important to hold 21-25 in the continuous contract just as in the gold and the gdx we took out that left side low now you've got to say well there's a chance the next left side low is way down here in the 2022-21 area but we're at 26 so it's a long way to go I don't want to get there I'd rather say you know what in this particular pattern it's a much clearer and they haven't really been working as they kind of been working the one to one downside you know it's something I've done for years and years and years I don't do it in as formal a way as someone like Larry does and he uses this particular technique so beautifully in his own work I just have it when it appears to me that it's a moment of importance and here's your one-to-one we're almost there in the gdx this is using a different technique that takes you to 25 25-30 actually so within that context the SLV has done the same thing I don't want to date a beet horse is that the expression anyway whatever it is look a gaps down from the 200-period moving average so this is going to be very important there aren't any supports until you get to right here 16 is that an 1838 and here we are at 1950 so that's the silver contract alright so to answer the question and baseball in the den says the GDA and Tiger TV GDX pulls down into the gap of 11 422 a lot of volume oh I didn't see that 11 let me just do that I'm going to load the boat he said so GDX 11-20 I didn't see the date so this is GDX this is go there 11 which is November of 2022 right 11-4 11-4 there it is ok so 11-4 oh you're talking about this gap right here ok that's way down in the 20 oh that's what I was talking about ok we're on the same trajectory here by saying that would be just major support but here we are at 26 I don't want to go there until we go step by step to the downside now on a very short term basis let me show you something I think it's going to be very interesting we're making low lows low lows and low highs you see that pink 9-period moving average it turned pink right there 10-02 as I was doing the update for the news and it was at 45 45 sorry 4305 yeah we are 4268 down down down down and this is a straight line down no this is a trough F slash G which has to be an alternate count so interesting this is going to be F oh my maybe we get that horrible day today F slash A and this is the 10-minute chart and G slash B alright we'll follow it by the end of another 10 minutes we'll go through it again alright so those are the things I wanted to look at a couple of questions came in so hack is hack is the ETF the cybersecurity ETF and it's down 65 since it's 5130 it did very nicely but it got repelled where in this chamois falling exclamation right at the inside track repellent zone right here I like to do another little mini channel and it got repelled right there couldn't break out to the green and that just says to me we've got to be careful I've got to remind this for subscribers something we want to get into but I'm very fussy about this I need to be convinced that we're getting this a crowd in the sector I've had a lovely rally look this the day looks fabulous broke above the chamois falling exclamation then it closed below it today but it was up just briefly made a P E at 64 is down 5 the weekly chart has a series of cluster patterns this is a g-slash C right here could even be a C1 C2 holding very nicely then you look at the monthly chart and say what are you getting excited about Mr this is not a great pattern at all it's just a recovery it's actually a great leg A in the weekly chart monthly chart Magnus okay 9-period hasn't turned positive and the stochastic is only a 62% on balance one is very good and that's what I'm looking at in the mix in the different sectors is quite phenomenal there's a question that came in and now I don't see it I did that okay I've done the two major questions there and a question right now okay so on a very short-term basis I want you to show you something else that I think is important I just want to go to the dollar briefly and that is to say that this particular move up where the stochastic is so into four but it's still strong at 82% this gray line the relative strength didn't confirm the rally here the MACD is good the 9 is still over the 14 but this is exactly what I'm a little concerned about in terms of the dollar that it gives a lot of false readings in the sense that it looks fantastic and then it looks like it's going to break down and then it holds the 9th moving average and moves up false in the sense that it thinks it's going to break down and yet it doesn't I talked about that briefly I have a whole list of things I want you to talk about again today you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and 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listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV Hi folks, so rather than do what I want you to do I'll do that tomorrow this time tomorrow I'm going to just say within the context of this particular candle right here in the weekly chart look what's happening in the QQQ as you're going lower if this QQQ you see this little dodgy candle for the weekly if the queues go underneath 351 36 they don't have to close it just go under it I think that's when you'll start to see this green 9-speed moving average turn pink so let me just do this for the day I'm looking at this and saying some kind of a turnaround needs to happen so that often noon that's an hour and five minutes time if the Dow is down it's down 360 right now the S&P's down 55 if we anywhere close to this particular area if there's no rally between 12 and 115 there's a chance that we can even go lower I don't know about doubling on the data see that's we're having a chimney of these double the noon time price for a long time but this is exactly at 130 the everything needs to be turning around but that wouldn't be the turn around I don't see us close to the V turn around I see a bounce a really good bounce on a very oversold condition and the more we bounce in this good without making a really without the VIX going into the 28 to 32 area the greater the change yeah we just start legs see in the VIX in the daily chart this is a leg a I believe it is in the weekly chart and there's your support level so let's make it clear if after 1 30 this afternoon the Dow is more than 190 down then expect a lousy close but if it starts to improve and it's improving gets to like a minus 110 and a minus 80 and S&P is now down only 16 points you can see some kind of rally if the dollar continues to decline and I never even had a chance to talk about bonds and bonds need to come become goat rally so that yield