 Today is our first what I would call a prioritization slate of the year What that means is you got to decide where do you priorities lie for today? Do you want to spend up for Clayton Kershaw who had 13 strikeouts nearly a perfect game in his first start this year? Or do you want to load up on Coorsfield go with the Philadelphia Phillies who are there facing Chad cool in a good spot Where you really do want to go but with Kershaw at $11,000 and the Phillies Being high salary at Coorsfield as well You kind of got a pick you can't have both you can get some one-offs and stuff like that But you can't stack the Phillies in full while having Kershaw So you got to choose picture or stack and typically I'm gonna lean towards the picture in these scenarios But I think today might be a bit different. Let's dive on and get you set for Monday's slate Welcome on into the solo shop. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down and Monday's nine a game I mean slates with lockset for 705 p.m. Eastern for today And there is some weather in the forecast for today specifically on the east coast Rain is very likely in DC for the Diamondbacks and Nationals I think this game is probably gonna get rained out So I would not make plans around players in that game if you want to go there Which you might just make sure you are around towards lock to make sure you can pivot if that game does get rained out There is a chance of rain in New York for the Mets and the Giants though looks like it'll arrive later So that game will start and you should be okay, but I check back on that one later to see the timeline of the rain there It's also 47 degrees. So if it does play which it should I would downgrade batters there Finally in Chicago for the Cubs and the rays temperatures just 39 degrees So downgrade hitters there as well for again the Cubs and the rays will break down the pitching preview for today Just one second the first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast seed We have NHL MLB UFC PGA and NASCAR Podcasts all in the same place in the same feed so if you hit subscribe You will get all those to your feed right as they are posted to give yourself maximum time to get your research in Decide if you like what we're saying and get your lineups in for the day No PGA podcast for this week because it is a match play event So are a team event so nothing there But we'll have the rest of the stuff here on the feed for you to get you said for another week of DFS Hey sports fans Fandal is now offering an exciting twist to the beloved same game parlay Introducing same game parlay plus which allows you to combine same game parlays across multiple games All you have to do is head over to the Fandal sportsbook and navigate to the same game parlay tab of the first game You're interested in select multiple bets from the first game and then plus it up Now you can add more bets from other same game parlay labeled games head over to the Fandal sportsbook today And opt into the same game parlay plus must be 21 plus and present ineligible states gambling problem call 1 800 gambler is a fandal dot com slash rg in Connecticut ccpg.org slash chat or 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 in Arizona Call 1 800 next step or text next up to 5 3 3 4 2 in Indiana 109 with it in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in New York text hope and why or 1 8 7 7 8 Hope and why in Tennessee call the red line at 1 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 or in West Virginia 1 800 gambler dot net Pitching preview for this Monday main slate Clayton Kershaw is the highest salary pitcher on the slate checking in at $11,000 We got Frankie Montas at $9,900 Shawma Naya 97 erinola is $9,500 Shay McClanahan is 92 Tyler McGill is $9,000 We've Alex Cobb Kyle Hendricks and Michael Lorenzen as the others at $8,000 or higher Now for tonight, I want to stack the Phillies and their court seal which means I have to be super salary sensitive at Pitcher and that's gonna push me towards Frankie Montas over Clayton Kershaw for tonight because it is a 1 or 11,000 a $1,100 discount for Montas down from Kershaw and I like Montas's matchup more than Kershaw's He says in the Orioles Kershaw gets a brace that clearly favors Montas there The Orioles have a 25% strikeout rate against righties based on their current active roster since the start of last year Whereas the Braves are at 20% I also do like how Montas has looked to start this year. His strikeout rate is 26% That's not like elite by any means But it came in two super tough matchups against the Phillies and the Reyes and both those games were on the road now Montas goes back home Outside of the strikeouts Montas has been awesome this year He has a 2.69 skill interactive ERA in those games with a 2% walk rate. His bad at ball data is very good It's a carryover of what Montas did last year. He also had a 16% swinging strike rate in those two games as well I think the strikeouts will come from Montas soon and I would not be shocked if that were to happen tonight Against the Orioles. I think that it's a very likely situation that it does happen So he is lower for me than Kershaw straight up But if you're gonna give me $1,100 to scatter across Coorsfield and the stack of the Phillies I will take that and go with Montas as my top pitcher for tonight Salary is also motivating factor for my second pick at pitcher and that's Shane McClanahan He's $9,200 and I think that's too low for where he's at. He's in a good matchup, too So he's in the Cubs who have a 25% strikeout rate against lefties We'll just say 33% fly ball rate and that's a big thing that low fly ball rate because McClanahan does let up I would say too much hard contact and We can be less concerned about that when the ball is not in the air and I think against the Cubs We'll see more ground balls. That's a good thing for McClanahan Also, we see McClanahan be pretty good at keeping the ball in the ground to 29% fly ball rates So it doesn't let the ball be near too often when he does it can be a bit concerning in the two starts this year McClanahan is leaning big on his curveball and he's thrown that pitch 34% of the time across those two starts That's a very good sign if we want strikeouts because last year McClanahan had a 42% Whiff rate on that pitch according to baseball savant the X Woba against it was 244 It was his best pitch. He just didn't throw it enough but it seems like he is changing that this year seems like he has recognized that that curveball is a weapon and He is using it to his advantage now McClanahan in those two starts is not been overly sharp because he's not completed five innings yet But that's not due to pitch count. He's not the second one the first game 68 pitches. That's pretty low Second game though 85 pitches, which means I think we can project McClanahan to go 90 for tonight If he is effective and in this matchup, I think there is a very good chance that does one up happening So McClanahan $9,200 I think he's very much worth a look again Trying to to save some salary give ourselves more flexibility to get up to the Phillies in that course field stack Now among the value plays for tonight. I think there's a pretty obvious one We want to focus on that guy's Alex Cobb at $8,800 and I don't think the Cobb will be below $9,000 the next time he's on a slate and that's because Cobb was filthy in his first start The velocity in a sinker was rumored to be up during the spring and it was in his first start He averaged 94.5 miles per hour on that sinker according to baseball savants It was 92.7 last year his splitter was also up 89.6 this year versus 87.5 last year and Velocity is good, but you do want to see results too We got the results because Cobb had 10 strikeouts across five innings a 16.9% swinging strike rate So he was filthy and a big thing is that he did go pretty deep in the game He threw 83 pitches and I went into that game assuming that the pitch count for Cobb would be around 70 So you outperform that for sure, which means that for today I am okay upping his pitch count projection to 90 for this slate That's enough for us in DFS at this point in the year Cobb is facing the Mets They're not a big strikeout team against righties just a 21% strikeout rates for them against start since the start of last year But it is a cool temperature for tonight just 47 degrees That is in a park that already favors pitchers to begin with so you give me a low temperature at this park That's gonna lead to good things from a pitching perspective So I love what Cobb did in his first start and I'm okay buying into that and making Cobb My top value plate of the night and he is one I will have my player pool for sure Because I do think he has a strikeout upside to hang with guys like McLean at hand like Montas like Kershaw Because of how good he looked in that first start So the transition out of the second section kind of you know spoiled this one before but I do think the Phillies are a priority for me For tonight even more so than pitching which is not typically the way I want to play things They're facing Chad cool at Coorsfield cool last year losses spot in rotation with the pirates and That's an indication that he wasn't throwing the ball super well Now he's with the Rockies though and there's always a chance when a pitcher goes to a new pitching staff He will figure something out that wasn't working for his previous stop and cool did lean heavily on his sinker in his first start this year He held the Rangers scoreless or just to one run over four and a third innings So those are positives new team new environment new pitching coach. He played well got good results The rest of the data was not as good though. He walked a lot of guys. That was the main problem for cool there He had four walks to five strikeouts and four and a third innings He did let us some hard contact to he let up just ten balls in place a lot of walks a lot of strikeouts That's going to lead to a smaller sample here, but He did let up some hard contact there five of the ten balls in play were hard hit The sinker did not lead to ground balls necessarily because you let up four fly balls to four ground balls and two line drives So although the results were good, I'm not sure if we should expect that to continue as the sample expands That's especially true when he's facing such a good offense at Coors Field This Phillies team as it's currently constructed as a 219 iso against righties since the start of last year That is the highest mark on this slate and now you're moving that out to Coors Field So I know they'll be chalky But I'm going to be aggressive with the Phillies here for today The tough part is that aforementioned chalk chalk dilemma where they are going to be very popular but you can Get unique through using different combinations of batters sort of for example JT real Muto Reese Hoskins and Kyle Schwabber all have first base eligibility You will get lineups with two of those, you know with real mutual Hoskins real Muto Schwabber, etc. But you won't get a ton of lineups that use all three at the same time with Schwabber in the outfield And at least one of those guys at the other utility slots That you know, that does mean that you won't get to have one of Harper or Costellanos in there But just a general thought I would give consideration to unique combinations when stacking this team And I think that a pretty unique one would be having all three of real Muto Hoskins and Schwabber given that they have overlapping eligibility People don't want to burn up that utility slot all the time So I would say to me that combination specifically real Muto Hoskins Schwabber is a pretty fun one and Just think about that in general think of hitter combinations Ways to get creative when stacking a chalky stack I think there are ways around it if you are willing to you know get it a creative it and give additional thought To the way you want to build things out there Moving to other stacks even with the mid-range pitchers like Montas and McClanahan We will probably need a value stack to pair with the Phillies here, and I think the A's could fit that I know I know the A's suck and they do they do they got a 92 WRC plus against righties Since the start of last year and that's one of the worst marks in the slate And it's also an Oakland But the matchup here is perfect They are facing Spencer Watkins and Watkins back in the rotation after getting demoted last year when he got demoted He did start throwing fewer four Seamers and it's it's not a good pitch So it makes sense you would scale back on that and he's carried that approach over Into this year as well now that he is back in the rotation But that approach is not working in his first start this year Watkins had one strikeout across three innings He led up two walks. He led up two barrels across 13 balls of play and a lot of fly balls That was against the Brewers and I think the Brewers offense is better than the A's But they're not some like elite offense where you grade that start on a curve because the team he faced so yeah, the A's stink but it's a great matchup and They can give us some salary savings I'm okay with taking that here because it allows me to get to the the Phillies as my top stack for today And nobody on this team has a salary higher than twenty eight hundred dollars. Everybody here is a value play One fun thing recently is that we've been seeing shall the noisy get starts against righties It's a small sample But noisy does have a 270 ISO against righties since the start of last year against small sample But he puts the ball in the air. He's batting fifth of the most part So I think that noisy if he does play again for today Would be a good option for us in terms of getting some upside between him set Brown Sean Murphy You've got three guys who can legitimately hit for some power against righties So although the A's are not good They've got some power some like legit power and I'm okay with that for today So the A's although underwhelming or a team I'm good with for today I prefer to stick with a three-player stack if I can you know go with a four player Philly stack three players in the A's One off elsewhere. I think that could be a good approach for today Now if you want a stack that should go a bit more overlooked to cancel out the chalk we have with the Phillies I would check out the Angels they're facing Luis Garcia and Garcia is a good pitcher He threw four shutout innings in his first start this year But some of the peripherals are a bit odd right now both now and at the end of last year There's something again that did start at the end the last year in his debut this year Garcia uses cutter just 10% at a time. That's down from 23% last year He started to reduce the usage on that pitch over his final nine starts last year and in that 10 start sample Including the one this year. He's at a 5.01 skill interactive. He already his fly ball rate is 38% He has allowed a 37% heart rate So it's curious that he would keep this up keep up this approach It didn't work that well last year. He spotted over into this year now that last game where he had four shot at innings was against the Diamondbacks and That was a team that could not make him pay The Angels probably can they have a 124 WRC plus against righties since the start of last year That is the highest mark on the slate. They got a 203 ISO in that time They're a good offense and it doesn't seem like Garcia is fully on right now I think the Angels are a good stack for tournaments under the assumption people don't turn their way here because Perception of Garcia is very good and they don't have the highest implied total for tonight either So I think the Angels are pretty interesting for sure. It is worth noting I'm assuming here that Mike Trout will not play because got hit by a pitch yesterday So I'm probably not gonna assume that he'll be in there And that's a downgrade for everyone because Mike Trout positively impacts everybody in this lineup We do those still less in quality options Jared Walsh is thirty two hundred dollars Anthony Rendon 3000 Brandon Marsha 26 Joe Adele is 25 if he plays over Taylor Ward, but if Ward plays he can also it Righties for power. So if he's in there, I'm fine with him as well And if you use Warder Adele plus Marsh plus Rendon or Walsh You should be able to get to Shohei Otani and with your Montas line us think that can work So I think the Angels will fly into the radar for today again I'm assuming Trout will not go and that is a downgrade for them for sure But I do still like them despite that in one of the warmer parks on a not great weather slate Let's finish up here with things to watch for today. If you do not use the Phillies I think that Kershaw would be my top option for today Despite a tough matchup at $11,000 and we did see him get yanked last week at 80 pitches I had Kershaw projected for 75 based on how DP had gone in the spring So it made a lot of sense. I know people were mad but like, you know You don't want to kill Clayton Kershaw in his first start of the year So I didn't project him for 75 he went 80. I'm fine bumping that projection up to 90 for this time around Which means I've got Kershaw projected for 7.87 strikeouts despite a tough matchup So if you've got the salary to get there, I'm into it But just note that probably around 90 or so for tonight. It is a tough matchup It is a high salary. So he's not my top guy But if you like the Phillies less or just want to avoid the chalk I think that Kershaw is still very much a fine option for today I did not include the Nationals in the stacking section because there is a good chance that game is rained out If it does play the heavens open up. I'm okay with them They're facing Madison Bumgarner good results this year, but the peripherals are super super concerning If that game does play you got Lane Thomas is a great one-off or stacking option here Cesar Hernandez pretty good against lefties in terms of power I'd be fine stacking them there, but again, I don't think that game will play for today The other stack I find interesting here is the Brewers. They're facing Zach Thompson and Thompson can struggle with fly balls at times. It's not the best. It's pressing hard contact either I do think he's interesting overall and I think that he should get some strikeouts I'm glad that they're having a start, but you know, I think that I'd be okay taking the the Brewers here I prefer the ages over them because the Brewers are not the best offense by any means But the Brewers belong on this list in a good park for heading for tonight So I think the Brewers work would prefer the Angels prefer the a's over them But the Brewers at least a consideration for me for today All right Dinger calls for this late. Is it too boring to say Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber or Reese Hoskins? Because I kind of want to say one of those guys I'm going to go to Harper. I know it's probably too boring even for the boring section But I just like Bryce Harper kind of wanted to go deep for tonight still go Bryce Harper. Why not? I know it's boring, but My podcast my rules the fun one. We'll have more fun at this one The fun one for today the fun Dinger call going back out to Oakland So not the best park but uh face and Spencer Watkins has an issue with that evolves Let's go with Sean Murphy as the home run call for today Don't get a lot of catchers in the Dinger calls, but Sean Murphy has pop against righties for sure as we know It does against lefties as well Not the worst part for hitting relative to this late as a whole so home run calls Bryce Harper very boring, but Sean Murphy a bit more fun. Hopefully helps make up for that for today That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop But once again, do not forget to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast scene wherever you get your podcasts We are enough podcasts potify stitcher google podcasts yet name it You can find us there and while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well If you've got questions for me, I am on twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I. M. S. A. N. N. E. S. You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb dfs A lot of so if you all had a happy and safe weekend, it will talk to you once again tomorrow to break down Tuesday's sleep This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network