 Hello everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I start, I need to go through the disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities, and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Pass performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. As a reminder, the focus of my presentation and the focus of the Options with Doug chat channel in Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to help develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as a directional bias. And the second step of my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in SpotGamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching Discord, the Options with Doug chat channel, as well as YouTube for questions and comments. All right, let's get started. So first of all, what's on the agenda today? News items, then I'll talk about our positional analysis and then setups. Okay, so news items. First of all, economic data this week, very light. The only thing is the upcoming consumer sentiment, 10 a.m. tomorrow. That's the only thing that I'm aware of. And the big event earlier this week was the Powell speech on Tuesday and the market reacted just like an FOMC announcement day. So that's it for this week, some minor earnings. And then next week things pick up again with the CPI report on Tuesday the 14th and the VIX expiration on Wednesday the 15th. And then the options expiration on Friday the 17th. Okay. And there's one other news item. And I just found out, for those of you in Discord, that book map does plan to reorganize Discord sometime after the close today. And I think they're adding foreign channel, foreign language channels, as well as reorganizing. So this channel, the options with Doug channel will be will still be available. There will be no change to the channel. It'll just be organized differently. It'll be in a different place. So you may have to look around. But again, it as far as I know it, you know, there will be no change to the channel just the location and Discord. All right, let's take a look at. Let's start with our positional analysis now. And I'm going to start with a this is a thinkorswim chart 20 day one hour chart. And now it looks like the SPX has violated this trend line that started that start on mid January. So these are the current levels for the most part from Spot Gamma. So this is a script that Spot Gamma provides to subscribers for thinkorswim. You have to manually update it every day. And the there were the key levels are are correct. But there were some discrepancies in what was shown in the founders note and what is in this level for the zero gamma and volatility trigger levels. But anyway, we'll we'll still use these levels. So here's the put wall. That's the strike with the largest net negative gamma and can be expected to act as support. And here's the 4000. This is again SPX, the key gamma strike or the absolute gamma strike. And that is the strike with the largest absolute gamma. And then the call wall remains up at 4200. And that's the strike with the largest net positive gamma. And that can be expected to act as resistance. And again, the discrepancy between what was shown on this chart, what would have shown in the pop up is around the zero gamma and the volatility trigger. So I'm not sure which is correct, but it looks like they are in play today at these current levels. So that is the longer term bigger picture view. And we'll take a closer look at book map in just a minute. And now I want to go to a shorter time frame. This is a thinkorswim chart again, showing just price and these levels. And this is the spot gamma levels. And this is the chart for today. It's just a one minute chart for today again showing that this 41 50 level was resistance this morning. And then price has been trending down and appears to at least for right now appears to be finding support at the 41 100 level. Okay, so that is the bigger picture view just looking at price and levels. Alright, here's book map steady down trend all day. And again, this is the so this is the S&P 500 futures. I'm going to tone down this heat map. So it's easier to see. So for the those of you who may not be familiar with book map, this heat map shows resting liquidity. The limit buy and sell orders. And the heat map shows a history of those orders. So I'm just going to tone that down so we can just see just price and levels and then the volume dots showing market buy orders market sell orders. So green dots market buy orders aggressive buyers, pink dots, market sell orders, aggressive sellers. So a lot of trend breaks steady move down. Again, here's the 41 50 level. And by the way, these levels, let me show you what I'm looking at. These are the spot gamma cloud notes. These are provided to spot gamma subscribers. They're automatically updated using this cloud notes feature in book map. And excuse me. So they are, they have been updated now to show a 10 point difference between ES and SPX. So this is showing SPX levels like this 41 50 level, as well as combo levels, SPX and spy converted to an equivalent SPX number, and then converted to an equivalent ES number for the ES chart and book map here. And again, right now, spot gamma is using a 10 point difference. And that that's pretty close to correct. So here is the zero gamma level that's in play and it does seem to be in play has acted as support. So we'll we'll assume that is the correct level. And now prices break starting trying to break below that heading down towards the spy 409 volatility trigger level. So steady downtrend all day finding some support at the four 10 key gamma strike zero gamma. And then now the SPX 4100 level. So those are the levels that are in play. And notice the some items here in the order flow. This dark blue to pink line is cumulative volume delta. That's trending down. And then the yellow line. Those are stop orders. And that is cell stop orders. So that is helping to fuel this move lower these cell stop orders. And then larger traders are starting to sell with iceberg orders. You can see by this falling like light blue line. And it's kind of obscured here. But this pink number behind the green number would be sell iceberg orders. And those are orders that larger traders use to hide their size. So order flow is definitely bearish here. Okay. So shifts and levels. Again, there's some question about the volatility trigger and the zero gamma level for SPX. So I won't cover that. And then the put wall SPX put wall did shift down from 4000 yesterday to 3900. And recall yesterday was a was a down day. So that is the SPX and for spy, the key gamma strike shifted down from 415 yesterday to 410. And then for QQQQ, the put wall actually moved up from 285 to 300. And the key gamma strike shifted down from 310 to 300. So let's take a look at the gamma charts, absolute gamma charts for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. And we'll start with the S&P 500. And you can see what I'm talking about. So for SPX, what we're looking at absolute gamma levels, this is the zero line, this horizontal line and positive gamma or call gamma is shown above the zero line that's shown by the black bars and negative gamma or put gamma is shown by the teal bars. And that's below the zero line. So this is still showing the 4000 is the key gamma strike or the absolute gamma strike with the largest absolute gamma. And that is very obvious. And then again, the put wall has now shifted down to 3900. And there is a lot of gamma concentrated at 4100. But the by the definition of the call wall, the strike with the largest net positive gamma, the call wall remains at 4200. So the thing to take a note of is all the gamma is really concentrated above the 4000 level. And just from what I recall yesterday, there seems to be a little bit of a drop in the call gamma. It may be a little bit of addition of put gamma, but most notably just a bit of a drop in the call gamma above the 4000 level. So that is the SPX again 4000 is the key gamma strike 3900 is the put wall and 4200 is the is the call wall. And right now SPX is testing the 4100 level and this the call input gamma there. So here's spy. And for spy, the key gamma strike again shifted down from 415 to 410. And if you recall yesterday, we were looking at gamma concentrated in the 410 to 420 level with 415 being the key gamma strike and what spot gamma was calling the pivot. So they were noting yesterday 410 as support 420 as resistance and 415 as as the pivot. And yes, and today that appears to have shifted down somewhat so that especially at 420. So again recall yesterday we were looking at gamma primarily concentrated in this area. And it's not so much today. So there's still call gamma above the 410 level and put gamma below. So for spy again 410 is the key gamma strike call wall at 415 and the put wall at 400. So what spot gamma was calling for today was support at the 410 level and resistance at the 415. So we'll take a look at the spy chart and see see how that is playing out. And then for QQQ, again the put wall moved up from 285 to now 300 and that is also the key gamma strike. And then the call wall remains at 310. So those are the gamma levels that are in play for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Alright, let's take a look at data now. So I'm looking at gamma notional. This is market makers position on the gamma curve and SPX is in the left column here. Spy in the middle column and QQQ on the right. So what this is showing is, again, market makers position on the gamma curve and in a negative gamma environment like we see with spy here, that means that traders are long puts, market makers are short puts, and market makers will have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure as price drops. And then as price increases, they can buy back those futures. So in a negative gamma environment, they are trading with price and that tends to increase volatility. And then as in a positive gamma environment and shown by SPX here, spot gamma assumes that traders are short calls, market makers are long calls and they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure as price increases. So in that case, in a positive gamma environment, they will be trading against price and that tends to reduce volatility. So shifts in gamma notional were all toward the negative side today. So yesterday SPX gamma notional was at 518 shifted down still positive to 154 and spy yesterday was minus 60 and it shifted down pretty significantly to minus 691. And then QQQ gamma notional was positive 128 yesterday and it shifted down to minus 104. And let's take a look at the Vanna charts and this will illustrate what I'm talking about. So what this is showing is how market makers delta exposure changes with changes in price implied volatility that's shown by the green curve there. That's the current expiration and that is showing how market makers delta exposure changes with price and implied volatility. And that's the Vanna effect, the change in delta with a change in implied volatility. So this is showing the slightly positive gamma notional for SPX. And also the black line shows how their delta exposure changes with changes in as time passes. And that's the delta effect, the change, I'm sorry, the charm effect. And that is the change in delta as time passes. So Vanna and charm are shown on this chart. Vanna shown by the green line and charm shown by the black line. So that is SPX, just slightly positive, really more neutral and spy clearly negative. So here with spy, market makers gamma notional, their position on the gamma curve is negative. And again, this is just showing that as price decreases, their delta notional increases and they have to self-future to hedge their delta exposure. And then finally, here's QQQ, slightly negative and more neutral. So that illustrates what I was talking about with the gamma notional. All right, let's take a look. So again, remember, I'm going through my planning process. And these are the things that I look at. And here's the last thing. And this is my key gamma strike spreadsheet. And I'm showing the key gamma strike for all the stocks of my watch list for the previous day and the current day. So previous key gamma strike that shows the key gamma strike from yesterday that shown in the far right column. And then the current key gamma strike, the D column, that's for today. And then I color code these based on whether the key gamma strike increased or decreased. So what this is showing is yesterday there was a lot of green. So the key gamma strike yesterday increased from the previous day. And then today, just the opposite, just a lot of a lot of red. So the key gamma strike dropped for all these stocks. And that that's a bearish signal. Traders are looking for lower prices and expecting and accepting lower prices. So given all that the shifts lower. And you know, I guess most notable here, both QQQ and spy, the key gamma strike shifted lower and remember, we saw that that shifts in the gamma levels down in spy being framed yesterday again by the 410 to 420 level and today shifting down about five points. So the expected top of the range, the resistance yesterday was 420. And today it shifted down to 415. Okay, so given all that my thesis for the day was first of all looking for a wider trading range than yesterday because of the the drop in gamma notional. And then my thesis for the day was bearish. Looking at the shifts lower and levels in all these stocks and especially again, the SPX spy and QQQ. All right, let me check for questions. So the question, how do I how do I identify whether the SPX QQQ is more neutral via Vanna? Since today Vanna seems neutral. But the SPX ES falling with trend. So one thing to remember about everything that I've looked at so far is static data. This is based on information that comes out overnight. And this is the market makers position at the beginning of the day before the open. So this is all static data. And the high I think of the Vanna charts that most significant typically for me is spy because gamma notional is typically quite higher or lower than the SPX. So spy compared to SPX. I tend to look at spy. I look at spy hero. And I look at most of the data for spy versus SPX. So again, remember this is just the position at the beginning of the day. And this this is you know more certainly changing during the day. But you know all we know from this data is again market makers position at the beginning of the day. So I hope that answers your question. And remember I talked about my two step process and the first is planning and this is planning. And then I'm looking at real time order flow and real time hedging flow. So I'm looking at book map and hero to confirm my thesis. Okay, so that leads me leads me now to setups. So first of all, let's take a look at spy here. And this first of all, yes, I'm not seeing that in the hero dashboard today. So we'll look at spy. And it looks like hero is not providing much confirmation here. Traders have been been fading this move lower all day. So they've been buying calls, which is somewhat puzzling. You know, certainly with this increase in volatility, I would be looking at selling puts rather than buying calls. And let's just take a look at a shorter look back period. So that gives more clarity. So this is showing what I was looking at before was cumulative data for the entire day cumulative hero. And now I've changed it to a 30 minute rolling period. So this is just showing the last 30 minutes of data like a moving average. And then once the next minute passes, it throws away the the furthest data point in time. So it's just showing the current 30 minutes. And now this is showing that hero is dropping. And it's a negative number here for the last again, looking at just last 30 minutes. So this is confirming the down move when we look at a look at a shorter time period here today. Change that. And another clue to change your rolling window, your look back period is when you see hero flatten out again, or flatten out. You know, again, it's accumulating all this data. And then it flattens out. You can change that look back period to a shorter time frame to give more clarity about what's going on right now. Okay, so that's that spy. And again, for some reason, ES is not in this list. But typically, just spy, spy alone is most of the options trading. Most of the this delta is in spy. So this is where this is probably pretty close to what is driving ES. Let's just compare spy. So 100 million versus 1.448 almost 1.5 billion. And I'm looking at this number on the on the right here. So as usual, spy is dominating. Right, let's take a look at book map now. And we'll take we'll start with the S&P 500. Again, downtrend continuing. And here's the kind of this cluster of levels here. There's the SPX 4100. And that was noted as support in the AM founders note. And then the zero gamma level. So there is, let's just I'm gonna what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna zoom in and notice the volume concentrated in this area between 4100. This is 4115 and the spy 410 key gamma strike. It looks like there are some iceberg buys. So some larger traders are coming in and buying at that level. That's shown by this rising light blue line. So we'll keep an eye on this and we'll see and we'll see what happens. We'll take a look at some other setups. Okay, there's a comment in discord zero gamma should be 4073 plus 10. And yeah, I talked about that at the beginning. There's some discrepancy in the volatility trigger and zero gamma levels between what was shown of the AM founders note and what is shown in this pop up and what is shown what was shown in the cloud notes as well as the the thinkorswim script. So here's the so here's the zero gamma level shown at SPX 4104 and ES 4114. And that's where it is right now. So I'm assuming that is the I'm assuming that is the correct number. But again, what was shown in the AM founders note is does not agree with this. So that is that's the S&P 500 multiple short opportunities and confirmed by order flow but not necessarily by by hedging flow like some other stocks. So speaking of other stocks, let's take a look at AMD. Let's take a look at hero for AMD. And there were a couple great setups that I'll get to, but only two really clear good setups. First of all, we'll look at AMD and pretty strong correlation between options trades hedging flow and price action. It doesn't provide much clarity. Let's go look at book map strong downtrend this 85 key gamma strike was the target for this move lower this morning and the liquidity there and it looks like the next target down is 84 and the liquidity there. All right, the next Amazon. Let's take a look at hero. Another good short setup confirmation with options trades, hedging flow, price action. Let's go back and take a look at book map. Shorts on pullbacks absorption shown here. This is the absorption indicator the small, small square pink pullbacks then the break of the 100 put wall key gamma strike and liquidity there and liquidity targets below at 99 the next target 9850 and then the next target below is 98. All right, let's take a look at meta. Another great downtrend shorts on pullbacks and the 180 put wall key gamma strike primary target and notice that which tool I had. Notice that now meta is trading down to the lower edge of the expected move and that is based on the options market and I talked about this yesterday. This is something that I have in think or swim. It's a script that's showing the weekly lower edge the expected move. This is one standard deviation move up or down based on volatility and price. So this is meta trading down at the lower edge of the expected move and now I believe I forgot to mention that Amazon is now trading down below the lower edge expected move for the week. So let's go back to meta and we'll take a look at a hero and pretty choppy. So what I saw was going to zoom in once this move lower in the morning and hero confirming a short nice strong down trend but not not a strong confirmation with hero and it looks like puts are driving so looks like some large call buyers in here but put buyers still seem to be in control so that seems to be what is driving price lower. All right here's Microsoft this is the trade of the day absolutely the best trade on the board on my watch list. So notice the strong divergence here. Hero just tracking down made for a great short set up right here just after 10 around 1015. So let's go take a look at book map now. Yeah huge huge down trend of Microsoft just continues. Found some support at the 270 key gamma strike but now has continued lower down to the headed down to this 265 liquidity target. Let's just go back I want to take a look at. So interesting to note that Microsoft was not on this did not have a falling key gamma strike. So from that alone that was not a not a clue but you know Microsoft has been in the news with the you know I guess the news about their AI and and being search engine you know comparing that with Google and anyway it was Microsoft was lower yesterday and then you know again traders are not not buying the news about being in there they're selling Microsoft and buying puts and selling calls. So of the stocks on my watch list this is definitely the the best was definitely the best short set up Tesla was actually and we'll look at Tesla in a minute had a good good long set up. So again nice nice divergence nice divergence short right here about 1015. All right let's go back and take a look at book map. So here was the short set up just looking for a trend break then I move lower at the 272 level so I'm looking at this right here the move lower multiple entries below that all these pullbacks and now price is heading down to the 265 level and I'm gonna zoom in that appears to be at the lower edge of the expected move. Yeah actually actually at the upper edge of the expected move. So let's let's take a look at let's look at the thinkorswim chart. Let's go to Microsoft and we'll go to the this is where that expected move comes from. So this is definitely a reverse version to the mean trade that Microsoft got so ahead of itself so what I'm looking at is this line the green line that's the this week that's the upper edge of the expected move the red line is the lower edge so Microsoft just got way ahead of itself and then that's you know here's the reversal yesterday this this is a daily chart so this left candle here is showing the reversal yesterday and then the continued move lower and just out of curiosity this is something that I let's leave it with this I don't want to look at anything else so this this is just based on the options market the upper edge of the expected move and again Microsoft trading well above that and now moving back moving back down to that level so great short setup today in Microsoft confirmed by order flow and market options trades and market maker hedging flow I'm looking at the cumulative volume Delta trending down all day all right that's Microsoft Nvidia was a choppy mess today QQQ we can take a look at that not really much confirmation with with hero so there's Microsoft well now there is in the afternoon heroes choppy but but moving lower we'll go take a look at book about and down trending just like everything else definitely bearish order flow and it looks like the target may be a price continues lower down to the 300 foot wall keygamma strike and JC JEC QQQ I couldn't get any confidence in the trade yeah I agree that Microsoft was a much better trade so order flow has definitely shifted bearish since about 1230 oops notice the the sloping down kill cumulative volume Delta all the pink dots here order flow definitely getting more bearish this afternoon okay JC says the volatility trigger violate looks so meaty so I assume you're talking about ES we can go back and take a look at ES so yeah testing oh 304 QQQ level so let's go back right okay yeah I see it now the 404 volatility trigger let me just tone down the dots let's see what's going on with spy and the 409 volatility trigger has been broken and spy and now that 40 100 SPX level is acting as resistance let's see what's down below so let's let's see what hero is telling us for for spy this is definitely looking bearish this reversal at the 409 volatility trigger and the 4100 SPX level all right let's take a look at hero for spy change the look back period definitely looking bearish it's a little bit more choppy but making lower highs as prices making lower highs and lower lows yeah JC I hope somebody is trading this I'm talking so I can't trade right now all right so that's spy and let's take a look at Tesla and Tesla as usual there's a very strong correlation with hedging flow options trades hedging flow and price action so let's let's zoom in and you know the best move was was in the morning here and calls were definitely driving traders were buying calls so let's take a look at Tesla and book map so here's this you know straight shot up in the morning night I find that's pretty difficult to trade you have to have to be pretty fast and confident there's Tesla in the morning headed straight up as traders were buying calls so about a 30 minute rise up from the 206 level down to 214 then a reversal lower make made a series of lower highs so good short set up after that run up to 214 and now Tesla is moving lower with everything else so not a lot of gamma levels and play for for Tesla I believe 200 is the let's just take a look at equity hub for for Tesla just leave that like that let's take a look at equity hub so here's Tesla 200 is the key gamma strike the key delta strike and the call wall and the 160 put walls not in play let's go back let's zoom out and see what what traders are doing now change the look back window let's go to the total signal and heroes moving in waves as well as price okay let me check for questions and Brent and YouTube asked do you ever calculate the gamma levels for ES futures options no I don't so for ES I just use the SPX and spy levels and that's what that's what spot gamma does apparently they the data for ES futures options is very expensive hard to come by so looking at this view on Tesla it looks like a hero is definitely trending lower and just like everything else I'd be be looking for a short in Tesla so no I don't look at the ES futures options as a spot gamma does not look for that as well okay that is that's all that I have again recall for those of you in discord that book map is going to do a reorganization sometime after the close today so this channel will still be there just in a different location I don't know what that will be so keep that in mind again after the close today and when you're looking for this webinar for tomorrow again we'll still be here I'll be here but again potentially a different structure in discord so again that's all I have for today thank you very much for watching thanks for your questions and comments and I'll see you tomorrow thanks again bye