 Yes, Ukraine is not the end of it. Here on Global Connections with Dr. Karl Ackerman, who is a history person, an expert in Eastern European history and Russian history, spent some time there, speaks the language. That's why we're going to conduct this whole show in Russian. Right, Karl? Ochenhara Sho. Yeah, Anima Poruska? And that, and I'll raise you one, Drospichu. I'll give you all the rubles I have because they're worthless. You know, they still use Lotties in Poland. Did you know that? I did not know that. And this Lottie is probably worth about, I think it's 10 cents or so. Anyway, I wanted to talk with you today about what is going to happen in Ukraine after whatever happens in Ukraine happens. And there's so many factors to consider. So many people make so many statements about it that it's very hard to get a beating on what is really going to happen. Let me offer one thought. There's a thing on PBS called The Rise of the Nazis, which is very, very interesting. And it is not about the rise of the Nazis. People name these shows and movies, one thing, but it's really another. It was about the fall of the Nazis. It was about the fall of the Nazis in Russia, 1943, in the cold winter of 42 and 43. And the Russians were in a pact with Germany at first. It made a deal with them, and then he broke the deal and attacked them with like millions of men across the end women, I suppose, but in those days it was mostly men, and crossed the border into Russia with a big plan about taking the oil fields. And mostly he was fascinated with taking Stalingrad because Stalingrad was named after Stalin. And there would be a personal affront to Stalin. So he wanted to attack Stalin personally and went after Stalingrad. And the movie is really about the mistakes that Hitler made, most in terms of the cadre around him, the mistakes that Stalin made, most in terms of the cadre around him, and about the strategies around Stalingrad. What is so interesting about it though is that they were both flawed leaders. They both failed to recognize the realities. They both made horrendous mistakes. And they couldn't give a rip of how many people died under them. And that was an essential part of World War II, at least in Eastern Europe. A lot of people died. Civilians, military, everybody died. It was part of the culture of that war. And Russia carries that now. So it's really interesting how it perpetuates itself. In any event, the whole thing about the border between Eastern Europe and Russia is so critical in the examination of what happened with the Nazis going into Russia. And that border is as sensitive a border as any border in the world because it keeps on moving. Over the past thousand years, it has moved like a thousand times. And here we are happening again. So the question I put to you is, where are we going on Ukraine? Do you have a kind of analysis here that can give us some light on whether we should be optimistic or not? Because Putin, he doubles down and like Trump does, he doesn't stop. He gets an idea and he keeps working the idea. And it's hard to say that he's going to lose. He's got a big army relative to Ukraine. And he's not stopping. He determined. So if he wins, what happens? Well, that's the... Jay, you and I have talked about this a bit that nothing in Eastern Europe is then safe if Vladimir Putin wins. And we talked about the sliver of sort of Moldavia between Moldavia and Ukraine that has Russians in it. Transnistria. Yeah, Transnistria. No sliver between Russia and... What is it? Moldava? Moldava and the Ukraine. And of course, there are lots of Russians there. So he could do the same thing that he's done in terms of carving out different territories on the supposition that there are Russians there the way he took over areas of the... Well, there are Russians. He's got troops in that sliver right now. Yeah, he's got about 1,500 troops there. But he... That's absolutely true, Jay. You're absolutely right. And of course, the other thing we talked about briefly, but I think it's important for the show is Kalangrad, which is basically between Poland and Lithuania. And so there you have that little sliver of Russian territory that's really an economic freeze zone, much like Hong Kong in some way. So you don't... Yeah, no, it's interesting. And I was preparing for one of our shows and I pulled out a map. And the map was a map of, of course, the Baltics. Right. Because the show was about the Baltics. Right. And I look at this map and I say, my God, there's a piece of Russia right square in the middle. And it's not landlocked. It's on the Baltic Sea there. And it says Russia. So what is this? How could Russia be a separate territory completely right in the middle of the Baltic states, touching Poland and Lithuania, I think? And what's more interesting is you can't get there, really, except by permission through any of those states into this part of Russia. Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad is kind of an interesting place because, of course, it was established at the same time that the Baltic states were still part of the Soviet Union under Stalin. And Stalin wanted kind of to knock it to the Germans and take over, what was it called, like, Coinsburg or something like this, you know, and under the Germans. And so it's, it's interesting because, you know, this is a little sliver of Russia, but there are Russians there. Oh, yeah. And the one who just spoke it is Russian. So it's like it's... It's Russian territory. It's part of Russia. It's own Oblast. So to get back to your central question is, so what has to happen in Ukraine is there has to be a military victory of the Ukrainians or so much damage to the Russians that they will have to pull back and there will have to be some sort of self-saving inference for Vladimir Putin. But at this point, you know, with Putin, you know, mounting so many troops along the, you know, the southern and the eastern front, we'll have to see what happens. But I think that, you know, the Ukrainians are optimistic if they get enough weapons. So we'll have to see what happens. But, you know, they're going to be fighting the entire military force. One thing that's changed a little bit in my perspective is if Vladimir Putin, you know, talks about the nuclear, you know, using a possible nuclear weapon. You know, I'm not sure publicly, but privately, you know, Joe Biden should pick up the phone and say, we're not scared about this because if you do this, you've raised the ante. And then we have to... We're going to have to come back with, you know, a retaliation and that might be where you're living. So, I mean, I think that, you know, Putin only responds to power. He is incredibly, as you said, stubborn about doing all this. So, the end game here is if Putin wins, it's dangerous for Eastern Europe. If the Ukrainians fight back and win, then it's a win for everyone and for democracy. The other alternative is if the United States could somehow diplomatically convince either India or China to come into, you know, Vladimir Putin's office and say, Vladimir, enough is enough. You should just get out of there and, you know, here's a fancy deal for you, you know. Because as you say, you know, he's someone who is very difficult to negotiate with unless he has some sort of beneficial deal. So, that's the... Well, you know, in the analysis of the Stalingrad story, neither Hitler nor Stalin listened to anybody else, including their generals, and that was a fatal error on both of their parts. So, it's not clear that advice from China or advice from India will change Putin's mind. It might. I agree it's worth the effort if they're willing to do it. So far, they haven't been willing to do it. So, let's go down both tracks on a differential. The first is he wins. He takes the southeast there and he moves in, and all the weapons and all the rhetoric that we get from Lloyd Austin and who else, Anthony Blinken, is rhetoric and they're not supplying enough weapons or the Ukrainian army is simply not strong enough to deal with all the weapons that Putin is using. And he collapses the country. I mean, this is a war of attrition now. Everybody says that, which means that, you know, you just blow everything up until there's nothing left. And all you have is an army that hopefully is supplied from the west. But to the extent that it's not supplied, it fails. Armies fail. That's the story of Stalingrad. They actually both failed. It's just it got cold. The season changed. And he has the seasons change in Ukraine too, I should add. Who knows what happens in Ukraine. In any event, let's assume that he makes the western border and he collapses the country, that there is no more army. He starts putting people in jail and POW camps in Siberia or something. God knows what he would think of doing and he controls Ukraine. Okay. So the question before the house is, is that the end of it? Well, you know, the question is, you know, even if he conquers all of Ukraine, then what? I mean, are the Ukrainians going to lay down and say, we don't want our country anymore? Of course not. Then it's going to become a guerrilla war. And then it's going to be protracted. And then the Russians, as they did in Afghanistan, are going to have to get out. So with, you know, a guerrilla war with lots of western support. So that's one thing. I think, you know, using that World War II example, you know, I mean, the Nazis got all the way to the gates of Moscow, to, you know, Leningrad at the time, now St. Petersburg, and then Stalingrad. And then, you know, because of, I mean, and remember that Leningrad was surrounded by close to three years. And so it was, you know, the people of Leningrad decided they were not going to under no conditions where they're going to surrender, like at the steel plant in the southern part of the Ukraine. So I think that, you know, Yeah, the only surrender was the Germans. Yeah, the Germans were freezing and starving. Ultimately, this fellow, I forget his name, Cassius, was it? Lucius Cassius, something like that. The Nazi general who had the army was the large army. He surrendered the whole army against Hitler's wishes. So it's very interesting that these natural forces of cold and hunger, you know, they can break your army down. I just think it's, you know, it's you know, the other question is, you know, for Vladimir Putin, and I win, and then there's a question mark for him, I think, because what is he going to do with this territory? I mean, is he going to send Russians in and try to rebuild? That's going to be very expensive. And, you know, he's not going to get a little lot of aid except for perhaps from places like India and China, but it's going to take a long time. And, you know, there's very little motivation. If you're living in Moscow or St. Petersburg, why are you going to go there? You know, what's the motivation for a Russian to get up and move and move into it, you know, a desolate and now, you know, sort of a, you know, a Stalingrad type of city. So I think you've hit on it though, Carl, and that is it's expensive to do that. You know, you have this sort of this brownfield that's all messed up. All the buildings have to be rebuilt, all the infrastructure, you can't do much with it anywhere in the country. And in order to make it viable, you have to bring in a lot of people from Russia. It's not a problem. There's a lot of people he can get to come from Russia, just like Stalin did, you know, in 1933, same thing. However, you have to have money to support them and to build the infrastructure back up, get them started. And he doesn't have the money. He really doesn't have the money. And the sanctions are taking away a lot of his opportunities. Lloyd Austin said yesterday was an interesting quote. He said, we want to make it so that Russia can never do this again. And how do we do that? By making them, he didn't say this, but the implication was by making them poorer, by taking all the money away from them, so they don't have the resources to mount another attack on any of their neighbors. That's pretty interesting. And you know, that may be a really good strategy. The sanctions will have an effect, and Putin won't be able to do this again. But assuming all of that, and assuming he does have friends, maybe in China, maybe in India, that he can fund investments to do rebuilding, you know, in Ukraine, the question is, will he go beyond Ukraine? Well, you know, I think it's, yeah, well, of course, he's going to go beyond Ukraine. But he's, you know, that's going to present some problems because, you know, at least with this president, you know, who knows what the next president will do, I mean, you know, in two years. But, you know, at least with this president, that's a pretty strong line. You know, that's the line in the sand. And I don't think he's going to, I don't think the United States is going to lay down under Joe Biden. I think that he will support, you know, Moldova, he will support Lithuania, he will support Poland. And it's interesting that what's also happening is that, as you know, in the Norwegian areas, countries that have been neutral, like Finland, are beginning to, again, there's a picture in some publication that I saw of Finnish women, you know, manning the front lines and, you know, having another winter war. And, you know, unfortunately, people don't remember history. But, you know, when the Soviet Union invaded Finland, they had a hard time at first. I mean, they just had to send all these divisions in. And eventually, the Finns, you know, were forced to surrender. But, you know, it took a lot of effort for this, you know, huge Soviet Union to conquer this very, you know, small in terms of military, Finnish states. So, you know, I think that just like we had, you know, difficulties in Afghanistan, in terms of getting out. And I may add, if I can, you know, had Biden not got out of Afghanistan, we would have still been in there. And imagine having that conflict going on while we are also, you know, supporting the Ukrainians. I don't think that would have been a good thing. So, you know, in hindsight, you know, President Biden's move is really quite good. Well, the coalition is definitely a vector that, you know, argues against Putin's success here, either now or later. However, it's also a vector in that the coalition may be weakening. You know, look at Macron. He won, but not by the margin he hoped with. And the French did not support him as much as we would have hoped. They supported a candidate who supports Putin, not so good. And, you know, I suspect that could happen if Trump or the like, you know, gets into office for 2024, who knows what the GOP will do. It's not about policy for them, it's just about power. And so what I'm saying is the coalition is another vector, and it may weaken over time. And as it gets weakened, Putin gets stronger and is encouraged by that, you know. If the coalition wins, Putin loses. What I mean is there's nothing, as Mel Brooks said this, there's nothing like winning. It's great to be king. It's great to be great, actually, is what he said. But if the coalition against a fragment or really does fragment and they stop supporting Ukraine because they get tired of it, you know, sort of fatigue, then Putin is going to be encouraged. You know, the other play in this, Jay, is, you know, how much, you know, the Ukrainians are being supported by international brigades that are coming under the Ukrainian auspices, you know. Including, you know, I saw an officer in the U.S. Army. And so, you know, if the strategy of the Western world is to support the Ukraine, and I don't know how it could not be for a long term. And I don't know how, you know, I mean, even though Macron may have some difficulty in other areas, you know, those whole yellow jackets and all this, and also, you know, inflation and in COVID, all these problems that we face in the United States. I still think that, you know, to support a democracy, I mean, you know, the tricolor flag means something. And to support a democracy is going to be, I think that my view of the Western coalition is fairly optimistic. The question is, you know, the oil, the gas actually that Vladimir Putin ships in, if that embargo lasts and continues to last, you know, it's going to be, and with the economic sanctions, in addition to the Ukrainians fighting, it could produce a stalemate so much so that Vladimir Putin is going to be forced to come to the table. Not that he wants to, because as you said, he's a stubborn man. But, and I don't see any kind of regime change happening in Russia anytime soon, because he has complete control over the media, which as we know by watching certain media, certain types of media in the United States, which, you know, produce a lot of lying, not that it's fake news, it's just that it's non-news at all. It's just, you know, people coming up with some ideas that they think will sell and get commercials, and then they, you know, they export these to the masses through media. Well, it's, you know, 10 times this or exponentially greater in Russia. So, well, he's in there. He's in there on a lie. Yeah. You know, I mean, he fabricated this whole thing. There was no contention at the border that no Nazis he has to worry about or anybody has to worry about. There are no Russians, you know, demanding that they be re-associated with Russia. Now, all of that is a lie. And thus, you know, if he goes to Transantria, I get the exact name of that little sliver. What is it called? I think it's Transantria. Transantria. The little sliver of land is like a railway easter, you know, not very big, and loads it up with troops and then makes some provocation about how Moldova, you know, has provoked him. And Moldova, by the way, there was an article in The Times about how he has paid propagandists in Moldova and Romania, for that matter, and he's just trying to change public opinion. He doesn't have control over the media, but he has control over a lot of people who are trying in turn to get control over the media. So, he could create a provocation, but Moldova has no money. Romania is a little better. Poland is relatively wealthy. You know, my wife and I watched a movie. It's called Hold Tight. It's the story of a middle-class family in Warsaw, and you have all these city scenes in Warsaw. You realize that, you know, my understanding of Poland is locked in World War II, but in fact, it's a middle class. This is a relatively prosperous city. And so, he could create some kind of contention, some provocation with them, and move the whole border west. And I'm not sure that the EU would be able to stop him or that NATO would in fact stop him. Well, you know, I mean, Biden has, President Biden has really drawn this line in the sand. So, you know, I think that from every viewpoint, he's going to have to, he'll have to, he'll have to move, whether that's, you know, that's, you know, sending in NATO forces or whether that's, you know, Americans, you know, on the ground or, you know, which would be the, the death and all the Russians, American aircraft, you know, our American Air Force, which is second to none. And, you know, we just have, I mean, we have the Raptor, for example, that no one can match. And so, you know, in fact, we have like, I think nine of them in Hawaii. So, I think they are brought in by Daniel Noy. But, but the other thing, Jay, that, you know, people don't often talk about, but I think that you and I are very aware of this is that, you know, when Stalin was doing all of this after World War II, you know, you had a huge, huge control over all the Eastern European countries. They were, they were really, truly were, except for Yugoslavia satellite countries. And he could use their resources and he could use puppets in every state. Putin is going to have, Vladimir Putin is going to have a hard time because, you know, all of these people, I said this last time we spoke, I have tasted democracy and, you know, what it means to be able to vote, what it means to be able to, you know, have control over your own life and be able to do different things, you know, and freedom of the press and even in more, you know, sort of strongman states like Hungary, you still have free press, you still have, you know, at least the semblance of voting in national elections. So even the, even these public states, of course, in Kalengrad, you don't, but also there you have the other thing that I've been able to mention about that northern sliver is that that's where the Baltic fleet is. I mean, that's where the Russians have a non-ice fleet. But, you know, I mean, do you want to, I mean, you have to think about this carefully if you're a totalitarian leader like you're in China or you're in Russia. If you have a really prosperous city, probably the most prosperous city in all of Russia, sitting, you know, in the middle of the West, do you want to mess with it? Or do you want to mess with Hong Kong too much if you're China? Simply because you get a lot of great business going there and a lot of money rolling in and out of China because of it. So that's the, those are big questions and that, you know, the economic issues are ones that both the President of China and the President of Russia, you know, are thinking about because that's really kind of the, that's, you know, that's what makes people happy and things like this. But I guess one of the answers that I can't answer and, you know, Jay, you really asked the, you know, a droid question and that is what is Putin's endgame, Vladimir Putin's endgame, you know, if he captures all of Ukraine? I mean, you know, it's not really clear. And as I said last time, a lot of these buildings that he's destroyed are going to have to be, you know, bulldozed over in order to rebuild. And so it's going to take a lot of time and a lot of energy and the, you know, the West is not going to be happy about this. They're not going to come in with funds. So it's, I don't, you know, this is really a no-win game. He's got himself in a real pickle here. And I don't know what he, what, you know, what the endgame is for him. I'm not sure it's clear to him or it's clear to, you know, most of his advisors that spoke to him before he put a curve on everyone said, you know, Vladimir, we shouldn't do this. Well, you know, I think, I think we've hit on something here in this discussion, Carl. You got to follow the money. You know, we had a, we had a German guest on the show a few weeks ago who was familiar with the, you know, the area that had been destroyed by Allied bombing after, at the end of World War II. And he said it took fully 10 years for them to recover. And, you know, very industrious people. They had resources. They had skill. They knew how to build things back, but it took them 10 years to put it together again. I'm not sure that's going to be the same in Ukraine. It might take them longer. And it would take the Russians longer still to do it. And it's not clear, you know, what banks are going to advance the funds as strictly on a moral level. You know, we're going to pay you so you can build a new country on the graves of all the people you murdered. This doesn't excite us. And so they may not get investment funding. And they may not be able to rebuild in 10 years or more. You're right. At the end of the day, Vladimir Putin is dependent on money. He's dependent on money to run that big army of his, to pay the mercenaries. Very nice about mercenaries, but you've got to pay them. And you probably have to pay them more than what you pay the regular stiffs in the regular army. And of course, he's using up his resources on all these weapons. So I think where I get to is that, A, he wasn't healthy before. His economy is the size of, what is it, Texas. He's got all kinds of issues because of the sanctions, which are taking root. And he's got a pretty determined group right now in the coalition not to help him. He's still selling gas though. You know, there are two Nord Stream pipelines. One is the original Nord Stream, which is still functioning at 200 million Rupals per day. And the other is Nord Stream 2, which they stopped. So he's still making some money on that. If Germany were cut off Nord Stream 1, that would really put him in a pickle. But I think at the end of the day, Lloyd Austin is right. The way to stop this is to choke off the money. And the way to prevent another attempt by a tyrant like this, attacking his neighbor for lies, is to choke off the money. He won't be able to do it again. And that's the world order to get together and collaborate on that. And I think that, you know, I mean, although, you know, he only won by 58%, although I think any American winning an office by 58% would be very happy. But the fact that Macron won again and that he is part of this coalition is going to make a big difference. You know, I mean, had Le Pen won, the coalition may have been on shaking rounds. But I think now that Macron has won, the West is still intact. And I agree with you, Jay. I think the key issue here is going to be financing all of this. Because not only financing all of this, but getting supplies to where they're supposed to be. And I used this example last time, but I think it's a good example to think about. Think about, you know, you never have a Russian car on the world market. And that's because it can't get their act together and get, you know, something, you know, and get good quality control of goods. I mean, you know, if you think about, you know, we live in a very cosmopolitan area, Jay. And we have, I don't know of any Russian product in our, you know, in Walmart, in, you know, any of our general stores. And it's because, you know, they're not trading these products. You know, maybe we have, you know, Pepsi Cola is trading Pepsi for vodka. But that's about it. You know, so, you know, and then there's middlemen anyway. But the point is that, you know, I think the Russians are going to have a hard time with supply. I think you're going to have a hard time with finances. So the original bleak outlook for the Ukraine is not so bleak anymore. I think it's really, even the Russians continue to lob rockets at other things and destroy Kievan cities. I'm not Kievan Ukrainian cities. Kiev is still intact. But Ukrainian cities, I think the long run does not spell good for Vladimir Putin. Yeah, I agree. And I think, you know, the press is very important in this. The press can keep the issue at the top of the priorities. I mean, not just the American press, but the world press. The press has to, you know, educate us and keep us, I guess, maybe not the good way to put it, but has to keep us interested. Because when we lose interest, you know, the coalition loses interest. So we have to know exactly what's going on. We have to know about all the atrocities, all the problems, including the financial problems. So I guess, why don't you tell people what you think they ought to do about this? It's the average Joe. The average Joe in Honolulu or in Cincinnati. What should his mindset be? Well, I think that, you know, first of all, you know, because my role as a historian and teacher is they should read up, you know, read the news and watch the news, watch CNN any day. You know, you can watch whatever you want. Fox is covering it. MSNBC is covering it. Watch the news, but more importantly, read the news. You know, I think you've mentioned different publications, New York Times and Los Angeles Times. But if those are not available, you know, local papers, you know, our Honolulu star advertiser mentions Ukraine. So we find out about things. You know, this is always the first part of any kind of democratic system. But also find a organization that you think, you know, whether it's a part of, you know, the United Nations or some sort of organizations of your choice and give money to help save, you know, basically helps help support the Ukrainians by whatever means. Food, you know, weapons, buying of weapons, you know, probably food and shelter and things like this. That's what I would tell, you know, the average, the average Joe in America. Or, you know, because we're multicultural, you know, you know, average Jose or, you know, have a suppose he says to you Carl, look, I thank you for that advice, but I am going over there next week. I'm going to work my way over there. I'm going to look for a job with the Ukrainian army. Well, I think that what they should do is understand this. There are two things I learned from the interview with this American officer who decided who was, you know, helping logistically with Ukraine on some sort of contract. And then he came part of the, he had his badge, you know, the colors of Ukraine, you know, the sort of buff and blue that we so adored at Punahou for so many years. I'm like the flag. It's easy to get used to, much less Cal Berkley. So there we go. But you know, he had that on his, and what he said is that the international brigades are under the auspices of the Ukrainian army. So just realize if you're, if you want to go and join the military that you're going to be under, you know, a formal army command. And so, you know, what that means is that you really are part of the Ukrainian army. So, you know, or, you know, Ukrainian, you know, whatever armed forces there are, Ukrainian Air Force, you know, I don't know if they're, if they're working right now on the Ukrainian Navy and things like this, but, but Ukrainian army for sure. But you're going to be, you should do this, but you should do this with a full understanding of what it means. And get whatever paperwork is necessary and make sure you agree with that. Well, and also there's the very real possibility you could be, you could be captured by the Russians and found to be an American. And that would not be a happy moment. No, and I, and you know, with the Russian, you know, the other, the other part of this equation that we have not discussed so far, Jay, is that, you know, what's the motivation for the Russian soldier? You know, I mean, you know, when they've been going in and telling to the Ukrainians, keep on saying, the Russians say, okay, where are your Nazis? And the Ukrainians say, there are no Nazis here. So, you know, you know, what's your motivation, except for trying to stay alive? And, you know, these young guys don't often know what they're doing. And some of them have, you know, rather a mean streak in them. And they're, you know, committing atrocities that are, that are, I mean, you know, war produces atrocities. But, you know, this kind of a war, which has no real reason, seems to create even more. I agree. You know, and it's just, it's just, you know, and so the question is, how long can Vladimir Putin sell his people on this? Because, you know, people are going to come home. And I mean, you know, people are going to see that their sons or mostly sons are not coming home. And they're dying in the Ukraine. And so, you know, the question always is, as it was in the United States during the Vietnam War, and for what? You know, I mean, what, you know, the domino theory didn't seem to really work. And that's a wild card, because that may ultimately pull a rug out from under him. Well, we're not finished with this, Carl. There's much more to come. There's more news, more issues, more to talk about every day. And we'll circle back. We'll follow it as it goes. I think that it's our duty to do that. And it's a benefit to the community to have this public conversation about it. Thank you so much, Carl. Carl Ackerman, professor of history, an expert in Russian history, Dostvedanya. You know, Jay, when you say Dostvedanya, that means you're going on a trip or something. But if you say Paka, it means that you're just, you'll see the person later, like see you later. So Paka, Jay, the Minch. Paka, baby. Thank you so much for watching Think Tech Hawaii. If you like what we do, please like us and click the subscribe button on YouTube and the follow button on Vimeo. You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and LinkedIn, and donate to us at thinktechhawaii.com. Mahalo.