 There's a couple of things that keep me up at night And one of those things that I constantly think about is when the next bull run comes well I have the ability To sell when I say I'm going to sell or will I be a bag holder and the second thing that keeps me up is For the Bitcoin network, how strong is it and will it last moving forward as all these things that come about as far as the Bitcoin having and that's we're gonna talk about today So the first thing there was a a piece an article that was Circulating a couple days ago. We talked about how bitcoin miners need bitcoin price to be over Really, let's just put a hundred k a hundred k by the halving. This is analysis that was done And for this this piece i'm just gonna tell you right now before everybody starts shouting at the screen and say no No, no, that's not that's not correct. It's like way less. You're right. It is way less So we'll get into that Which is this So when I when I saw this Kind of concerning and it's a it's an it's an interesting article and it talks It it kind of gets convoluted with the the stock price Of different bitcoin mining operations like riot marathon iris clean spark bid farms and hut eight And they started talking about the profitability of those said companies and how they needed to be x amount of dollars And really what it comes down to is I really don't care so much about those companies if they do well Or if they don't do well, I have I have bought stock a little bit in in mara and riot But that's that's it. This isn't like a major part of my portfolio So I really am not concerned so much if these companies Do great fantastic or not what I care about Is what the price is going to be at the bitcoin having let's just be honest So this was a recent report by seeking alpha And it talks about despite riot being expected triple its mining capacity in 2024 They're still going to have to raise the expectations of the or the price To be almost 100k for them to be profitable A big increase in bitcoin's price will therefore be required for miners to remain profitable at today's Hash rate levels and it goes over a bunch of different studies and things like that And we'll get into the hash rate and the poll multiple and the hash ribbons and things like that in a second The report concludes that nearly a hundred thousand dollars could be required For miners to actually be profitable unless bitcoin outperforms our bitcoin thesis We don't see any way where the bitcoin sector can come out unscathed even with riots ambitious 35x of hashes Our model suggests that bitcoin's a trade above 98000 to justify riots current evaluation or post having I thought it was pretty interesting There's a couple of things that you have to know about the the hash rate and bitcoin miners first of all I am not a bitcoin miner And if you are into bitcoin mining my hat is off to you because that is a very difficult industry to be profitable Especially for the small guy. So if you're doing that more power to you, it's not my wheelhouse But from what I gather So the hash rate the bitcoin hash rate itself It's just computational power And of course as things as more bitcoin miners come on to the network You need more computational power to be able to solve those mathematical problems to be able to To mine that said bitcoin and of course when the bitcoin having comes your efforts are going to be slash and half essentially That's just the way that The bitcoin platform has worked Since 2009 2008 is when paper was written 2009 was the first genesis block So we can see here As the hash rate starts to go up Then of course the reason for that is people like hey the price is going up I should probably get into bitcoin mining right and everybody's having a great time Until there's too many miners and it's just not as profitable and people got to shut the rigs off That's just how it goes. So it's like a really beautiful dance At some point you have to you know the smaller guy or sometimes even the big guy will have to like shut up their operations And the people that they can just stick around Do pretty well, but again, they have to upgrade all those mining rigs They have to pay for all that electricity to actually be profitable moving forward We can see that over time. It's just been up and to the right except for Right around May 14 2021 everything just everybody just started to Apparently take a bunch of profits And then down it goes and we had a big problem. But again, it just Recourse is not a big deal So when you're taking a look at what's happening in the system There is this great website look into bitcoin.com. There's a link in the description 100 free you can find all these different charts really great stuff Another thing that I take a look at is the hash ribbons indicator and this is just taking a look at The 30 day moving average Versus 60 day exponential moving average as it relates to the hash rate Of the bitcoin mining operation and we can just see that here once we get into this pink zone That's when you see minor capitulation Because they're like look the price itself is not sustainable to me I have to turn off my rigs and off I go So even in this this this document they say well, it has to be 98000 to justify the current valuation It's not so much about from what I What it looks like it's not so much about the valuation of bitcoin itself, but the company itself So there's this piece So if you want to take a look at when miners are capitulating just take a look at the hash ribbons indicator It's free very simple Once we get into the pink they're capitulating once we go into this light pink they're starting to go Okay, well things are getting better. I'm going to turn things off and then when it gets into the white Then things are going, you know high speed and this has worked pretty well Up until 2021 quite honestly And we need to see that here that of course the price goes down They're capitulating okay, and then and then as things start to improve Not a bad buy indicator sending happen over here and here Light pink price goes up everybody's happy, right? So this would be like the perfect thing the problem with indicators is you need a bunch of them To verify Whatever your thesis is so we can see over here. It didn't work so hot Because in april 23rd 2021 here's the things a little goofy so you got this This dark part you're like, okay, they're capitulating And then when you when it goes into the light pink they're like, oh they're turning things back on But it just fell down even more and then of course I went right back to capitulation I'm like, okay, it's gonna fall down even more and it did then I want to get over here you buy so worked out, okay Over here you can see the same thing Capitulation when it gets the light pink they're coming out of it But it didn't went back right back to capitulation And then you're like, oh great. I'm in this really sweet spot. I can buy some more, but it went down Over the long haul things that work out pretty well. So that's the hash robins indicator You can take a look at it take it with a grain of salt and and paired up with other different Indicators like the well multiple. This is one of the things that I'm using right now for when we get in 2024 and 2025 for The time of when I believe I will sell 80 percent of all of my crypto all of it all of it 80 percent at least and We can see right here. This is just taking It's calculated that daily issuance value of bitcoin divided by the 365 day moving average and I like simple things I'm a simple 10 So it makes very makes it very simple for me. So when we're having the the well multiple The daily issuance, which is what the miners are actually producing We're gonna see that in these times when things get into the red things are way overheated and you might want to think about selling And and inversely when it gets in the green area, this is not a bad time to buy. Wouldn't this be sweet? buying bitcoin at 4100 3700 dollars 3200 dollars and then kind of going around this this range, which is quite boring Which is what we're doing right now. Are we not very boring slow sideways action? People are falling asleep at the wheel. That's fine that's fine Because I will be there in the barn anyhow gets out of the out of this green territory Then you just kind of wait for things to go up Maybe you take some profits along there. It's up to you. I'm not your dad. Not a financial advisor I'm just gonna play this play this channel again when you take a look at the indicators, you can see yourself Okay, this is not a bad deal and then lastly This was a tweet out from adam back It's one of the crypto oj's bitcoin oj's. I should not I should say not crypto oj's this guy is not adam is not He's not suffer all coins And he states this miners need 98k won't break even well if hash rates rise at 6.3 percent a month like january through july 2023 Hash rate on april 2024 will be 633 exit hashes blah blah blah blah Operation will be 58k break even and then he goes about and says, you know, they're things to be more efficient So that 58k number could be it but he goes, but I don't believe it's 98k or 100k So when we're talking to look at this and people are flipping out about oh my god It's gonna be a hundred thousand dollars and it's gonna take so much even if it does happen like that Well, that just means that a lot of the little guy A lot of those bitcoin miners that are out there that are struggling against the the big guys They'll shut off the big guys will take a little more more profitability because they don't have to have so much Hash rate power and they'll clean up. Unfortunately. That is where we're at in that state. So let me know what you think about that piece Now there was this the secondary this price action 2024 as you know I believe in the four-year cycles. I believe that our all-time highs are going to hit in 2025 But I also know this one big glaring fact, which is that I'm not perfect and I have gotten things wrong in the past So what I worry about Is what if these all-time highs come at 2024 and I just I and I had this Chunk in my head going. Okay. It's gotta be 2025. It's gotta be 2025. That's not a way to play this game In my humble opinion again indicators and if you're looking at things to take a look at There's a video I did there's a link in the description While I'm selling 80 the different indicators I'm looking at Check that video out so This is pretty interesting if we're taking a look at historically And this was a report from matrix port and I linked this in the description. Whoops I linked this in the description You can check out the report As it says right here But it states matrix on target prepare for the starting 2024 year on bitcoin target of 125 thousand dollars I don't believe it's going to hit that The bitcoin having's in april. I hope it does I don't think it's going to hit that but I could see 50 60k but 125,000. I don't know This describes that bitcoin can reach 45,000 by year end this year And 125,000 might have 2024. Okay, great. I just I like to talk about it because it gives a little hope even people like that stuff However, this is where it gets good for me on june 22nd bitcoin made a new one year high June 22nd 2023 bitcoin made a new one year high looking at year over year This signal has historically indicated the end of bear markets and the start of new crypto bull markets So I would just want to ask everybody right now if you could do me a favor In the comment section right now Tell me if we're in a bull market if you feel like we're in a bull market because I get Varying opinions of exactly where we're at if it's bull or bear I think it's a little bit of a bullishness, but that could be wrong. So With this one Previous occurrences took place in august 2012 december 2015 th may 2019th and august 2020 with the actual bull markets materializing in 13 17 21 one thing you'll notice is this December 2015 When was the next all-time high for bitcoin? two years later, right December 2015 to december 2017 Hit around 19,900 some dollars may 2019 to roughly may 2021 Roughly an all-time high in april of the 63,000. Okay in november. You got me 67,000 and then august 2020 well That was a little bit more that was a little bit more than a year, but it wasn't two years For the all-time high november This signal has been triggered four times and in all four cases In all four cases the bull market fully unfolded within 12 to 18 months if history's any guide There's now a hundred percent probability that by the end of 2024 bitcoin will experience another massive bull market with a price target of 125k so look If that comes true great, I think we're all gonna have a great a good time I would stress everybody to watch that video about the indicators i'm looking at to make sure that's We hit those those time frames But there is something I need to to talk about especially if you're new which I don't think I think most of you here are kind of grizzled venture veterans So you know what i'm gonna say, which is this nothing goes straight up, but if we take a look historically Going back to 2015. It did do pretty darn well december 2015, right We're at bitcoin at 390 dollars 390 bucks and it was Just kind of like a straight Line up. I mean you you could you could have done no wrong in 2015 the 2016 Maybe a little dips here and there Little dips, but not like like what we what we feel nowadays 2000 I'll be here and then up up you go at this point things get over overheated But what about The next one in 2018 or 2019 so If we get here of may of 2019 things go up everybody feeling feeling pretty good up some more up some more And then we get this kind of choppiness sideways boring a little bit down a little bit sideways So just remember that it's going to be like this for a while until having and beyond And you could see your portfolio go down massively like in this one. I don't know if it's massively I think correct me if i'm wrong, but it wasn't at march 2020 when we had that thing called the the pandemic the coronavirus went from 10 000 and dropped like 50 but it still did a pretty good And moving forward and then of course we take a look Moving forward into august 2020 that next timepiece. They said you did pretty darn well just doing this investing into bitcoin with some Volatility moving forward. So again, I think these are the times to accumulate. I am personally hoping that during these times It doesn't start to go up like a rocket ship. I'm actually kind of Hoping for a little bit sideways action because I think in the long run In 2024 205. I think we'll all do pretty well But these are the things that keep me up at night. Will I be able to sell? Let me think about that in the comment section and then lastly, let's talk about x twitter x and dogecoin My new favorite thing to talk about So this is from doge designer And I just wanted to this is like a public service announcement for everybody There's been a lot of scams, which there's always scams in crypto, but I need everybody to be aware that Twitter which is now called x is not putting out its own crypto coin. There is no x coin There's no x coin. It's going to be done by twitter. It's not happening. So just be aware of that and Doge says elan must never launch a crypto token be careful of such articles and elan must himself says yes And we never will meaning we will never put out our own crypto and digital asset. I'm like, huh? Well, that's okay They do have bigger plans though I just saw there was a piece that they're going to start up streaming services Which will be a little bit higher on hd instead of what they have right now They're also have plans for an in-app trading platform And if you remember about a year ago or so they partnered up with robin hoods to offer that didn't materialize too much But it looks like they're going to do that And this is something that elan had talked about before and look i'm not a big elan lover I know some people love him and some people hate him. I'm just indifferent to him. He's just one of those guys that The things that he does in his realm just pay attention to that because it can Do some profitability for you down the road. That's all I'll say So if we have all these things and these big things are happening on x And we've talked about this before and I know people have talked about this also as well But just remember there's a reason why he's got the dogecoin logo right there and not like I'm going to talk about how great doge is I still think it's a meme coin It was started off as a joke Even the even the creator of dogecoin said this is just a joke All over things change, you know Things change and if dogecoin does get integrated As some kind of tipping service. I think you could do pretty well. Do I think it goes to two dollars three dollars? No, that's kind of crazy, but I think it can do pretty well and As people are making I've talked about this before but as people have made fun about dogecoin I put this out. There's a there's a link in the description. You can you can find this exact chart What I'm going to show you right now if you scroll down All my strategies my d gen plays my crypto exits The exit video four year cycles dca and wide doge I just want to show you this and I want you to think about your crypto token, whatever it is I don't know what it is How long has it been around? How well has it done? But just so you know dogecoin It was created in december 6 2013 2013 And it's been like the top 30 for 10 years for a for a decade and everybody makes fun of it But it's been around for 10 years That's not bad And just so you know like it's not just some Some straggler some somebody just created out of thin air it was A fork of lucky coin. I know it sounds goofy, but it is And lucky coin is a fork of litecoin and litecoin is a fork of bitcoin So it has some pretty good pedigree if you're looking at at that way And in 2014 it was ranked 16th In 2015 it was ranked ninth In 2016 it was ranked sixth 2017 ranked 14th And of course it fluctuates. I just used the the the very first week of january as my as my base case 2018 it fell 29th 2019 and went to 24 In 5th of january you got me on this one. It did go to 30 the 31st place true in 2020 2021 rebounded 26 2022 is up to number 12 And first of january 203 is number eight. I think right now correct if i'm wrong I know it's in the top 15 if not the top 10 So for a goofy meme coin I'd tell you it's doing pretty good. I don't know how your cryptos are doing, but I got to tell you if you look back to this list I can tell you I don't know what the heck pure coin omni next meme coin quark mega coin Why no roll coin that's got to be a different one prime coin feather coin. I don't know any of that stuff Pay coin. Let me go let me go down here. This is sometimes this is kind of fun What the heck In 2020 bitcoin cash is ranked fifth like home is six eos was number seven in 2020 Bitcoin to toshi's vision was number nine Okay, nine was monero. That's that's a good project Tron and cardano tasos Come who will be token neos so anyhow 999 token or anything But just take a look at that just say yourself. Hmm. That's been around quite some time and then also As a as a little piece here And we talked about this before if you want wants to use this as some kind of like tipping transaction Part if you take a look over the past. This is just just a year if you go back three years over at Bit info charts the average transaction fee. This is like one of the at one of the peaks here in May going into june of 2023 I didn't pick the absolute peak so wouldn't unfair but the average transaction feedback in 2023 I was just 2023. Yeah When things are going crazy Or when they're a little bit of a Bitcoin was $14 and it wasn't even doing that. It wasn't like a ton of transactions Ethereum was 19 bucks And doge was a was three cents And you can see over time. Let's you know what? Let's just take a look. Let's go over three years and see how it's done Yeah, that's pretty good actually I don't Know so let's take Okay, let's go here. This is october 15th. Let's go to november when everything was the all-time high Not bad Bitcoin transaction fee was three dollars three thousand fifty cents ethereum was 48 bucks unbelievable Dogecoin was 62 cents So just so you know like I know when this this comes about especially with uh If you don't want to make this as a tipping thing and it gets mass adoption globally I don't know if that's going to actually work out For dogecoin unless they have something up their sleeve. I don't know why they don't use xr pure lightning, but I'm not here to Tell Elon what to do. I'm just here to kind of guesstimate what could actually happen and then also Check this out. I thought this was also interesting If you want to verify this Ben cited in the cryptiverse link in the description you get 10 out the first month You can do a dca simulation and Ben did a video on this one, which is pretty interesting how he did it but For this one you can sign up and get this tool for free and it is pretty fun to see like And you can go through all these different cryptos and I like about this one It's like as opposed to like dcacc Is that you can compare a bunch of different cryptos right in line as many as you want to So like this one I'm just going to compare Dollar cost averaging dogecoin 100 bucks a week to bitcoin And I I don't want to use 2015 because that's going to be totally unfair Because bitcoin or dogecoin was nothing back then and bitcoin is doing actually pretty good But you can see if you would if you would have done that you would have been at the peak That's ridiculous. You would have 43 million dollars But you would have had to invest 33 000 just so you know, but with bitcoin you would add 2 million. Let's just that's not even fair So let's just go to 2018 let's do that January 1st after the big one. Okay So if you'd done done this At the all-time high You would add 3 million With bitcoin you had on 26 000 and you would invest 100 bucks a week You would invest the 29 200 or 17 600 now It would only be worth 447 000 as of today But bitcoin would be worth 75 k. So that's something to think about All right, that's 2018 and just pay attention to the to the peaks here in 2018. Let's go 2019 because it Same thing really I'm not going to go over it 29 2020 all right So things are catching up to doge. How about 2021? ah So here if you if you invested In the beginning of that monstrous bull run that we had Doge you only it would have had 36 000 And bitcoin you would have had 2300 you would invest in 1900, but if you would have done a lump sum Well, you'd still want to beat bitcoin which kind of crazy. Well, how about 2022? Ah see 2020 if you were starting 2022 investing into doge versus bitcoin You would be up Well, actually no, it's not true. Well, actually yeah, you would be up bitcoin a little bit So like in june You would have invested $2,300 With doge you would have had 1,500 and bitcoin you would had $1,800 As opposed to lump sums here doge would be up you'd be down and then as of today You would be down almost 20 percent if you would have done it in 2022. How about this year? 2023 Yeah, see After all this time. Yeah, see and you would The lump sum you would have done better But then doge coin you would have been down 10 percent so But it's just interesting though over time and I used to make fun of doge coin all the time I just thought it was hilarious that people would invest into it and I look at them like, hmm Not a bad deal So let me just think about that in the comment section may have been going off the rails And Lastly I think this is the most important part This this tweet I saw And I would ask everybody I would ask everybody this This option to to not judge this individual For what he invested into But judge him on his ability to be truthful with everybody And put out information that does not look very positive because let's be honest in this in this world that we you know live in It's all about showing everybody your best face forward and not admitting your flaws and not saying I screwed up and not And just saying everything's perfect, which we all know that's a bunch. That's just ridiculous We all are fighting our own internal battles So judge this man on on what he puts out in his honesty And he states Here's what a seven years of crypto life got me a former multi-million dollar dca crypto investor hexo g And he says I got the same leaking crappy 3000 trailer for the last seven years the same car with Half a dozen check engine lights on same five maxed out credit cards same minimum wage job find a pay bill as my wife and kid deserve better They suffered while I played someday with desperately needed funds what a loser and he shows us His life buckets everywhere hallway living room bathroom I'm a nobody loser not worth to follow showing you what not to do Don't put your life and family on hold to put money into crypto and uh I cannot agree more so again in the comment section do not judge this man on what he has invested into Speak to the fact that he actually Beared Open his soul to show you the negativity Now that is uh going on his life and that's it for today. So look Um, that's it for today if you like today's video. We'll give a thumbs up all that good stuff Consider subscribing everything we talk about is time sensitive now if you want to we'll go over the The the q&a and we'll talk about everything We just I can answer all your questions the best of my abilities and we'll go from there If not get out of here. It's a sunday. Hopefully beautiful day we're at