 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Even though the headliner of week six is already in the books with the commanders at the Bears We're still I guess some okay games left on tap. We got bills chiefs I suppose cowboys Eagles some kind of good games We're gonna break those down from a prop betting perspective and let you know where JJ Zachary Is seeing value this week over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as I am each Friday by JJ Zachary's and find him on Twitter at late round QB check out his work out late round calm and the late round fantasy football podcast JJ It is week six. I'm sorry. I couldn't get you on to talk about Brian Robinson Cole commit props, but I guess nice consolation for you this week. How you doing? I feel like I probably would have gone overs with Brian Robinson Did they not hit they didn't cash did they a forty and a half you went over I Okay, that's good. Yeah, so I was like I was watching that game and I was excited forty eight and a half And I was like Like they were about to go down Seven points like okay, it's about to be a McKinsey script and we sags. I can manage money line, too I was like I'm gonna lose this game loses Robinson prop and then Vila's Jones man He was looking out for me. So Vila's. Thank you. I appreciate it buddy. Yeah I wonder how bears reddit is feeling about me Right now because back back during draft time I was not very high on Vila's Jones and they destroyed me verbally on the internet It's never happened before though, right? Never never never But yeah, I mean, I you know the it's very strange. You know this show I've had some pretty like the props that I've picked for this show have not been the best this year Running kind of cold right now been playing it. You know like last week, you know touchdown props I usually just get kind of wild because it's fun But you know this week I'm going to to play it a little bit safer and smarter and hopefully hopefully get some some dubs Well, I think there's been a lot of value in the situations to monitor Section we talked about like you talked about Josh Jacobs last week before he goes for like a career high and like every single category I had his receiving a prop for that game in part because of our discussion And so like that sub that section specifically has been pretty good And we'll be talking about that again and we'll kind of go through a similar process for Bill's chiefs Specifically in just a bit but first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Also up on the fandal YouTube page as they are posted there So subscribe to the fandal YouTube page and covering the spread wherever you get your podcast twisted tea and fandal have joined forces To bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series It gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in a site credit Introduced in twisted tea's college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play the contest is simple each college football game will be assigned money lines spread and total markets With assigned points to each market All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection You may that the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit had fandal comm slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and remember Please drink responsibly now. I'll talk about the bills and she's specifically in a second here JJ But I didn't want to talk to you more broadly about the impact all these higher leverage games We can see teams take a different approach when the game truly truly matters And that's true for both bills chiefs and Eagles cowboys. How do you alter your approach for betting props in those games? Knowing that teams might pull out a couple extra stops in order to win that kind of a matchup Yeah, you know I think the one thing you can do is look at the playoffs and what we typically see in the playoffs because obviously They're doing whatever they possibly can to not get eliminated and one of the things that that you and I have have Done successfully. Well, you know through the years is looking at quarterback rushing and laying props down there Whether it's a quarterback rushing touchdown You know, remember the the Mahomes touchdown in the Super Bowl one year. Yeah, yeah, the first touchdown You know stuff like that, you know, if you're if you're able to hit the overs a little bit more With those quarterbacks, I do think that's a logical approach. The other thing though, too Is a lot of these teams will save players Specifically running backs when games get moderately out of hand, you know wide receivers will generally Leave the field whenever games get out of hand and you know, there's crazy game scripts and such but running backs for the ones who we typically Will see leave the field first because backup running backs are a little bit more replaceable and sometimes teams Just want those backups to get some run just in general And so when when games are tighter and we'll get to this in a second when games are tighter There are some running backs who are a little bit more attractive in those games Because these teams are typically good. They're they're leading They have these positive scripts and they're able to get these other running backs a little bit more work than than they otherwise would so Definitely pay attention to the running back backfield chair snap shares as well, but then you know quarterbacks I think are the big things because you know, they'll throw their bodies around more whenever these games just matter more you know, it's one of those things that You know is not necessarily as quantifiable as some of the other things that we typically approach or you know Talk about and think about but you can look at at playoff numbers and see that quarterbacks are running the ball more They get better rushing yards and it's really just because they're doing whatever it takes And I think that you could see that this weekend in some of these big games Yeah, Patrick Mahomes early in that game against the Villas in the playoffs last year was running quite a bit A lot of scrambles for him in that one. I checked out his touchdown profits five to one That's not super Forgivable honestly Josh Allen is plus 130 so it's kind of nope You know, you're not taking this one, but Maybe we'll get some value in the running backs in that game So let's talk about the bills at the cheese. So you were talking about running backs being used differently 38 to 3 for the bills might be a bit different than hopefully what we see in this game So that might relate to some props in this one, but let's talk about the bills cheese game specifically Not a lot of props have been fangled yet for that game when you're looking at this game broadly What are you keying in on any situations you're looking at to potentially grab some props once they are posted? Yeah, so you know I just mentioned the running backs stuff and how teams might use running backs a little bit differently in these types of games And you can just kind of look at how, you know, Buffalo is a really good example You can look at how Buffalo has used Devin Singletary this season in tighter games this year He's just been on the field more they've used James Cook more in garbage time But but his best usage games Devin Singletary's best usage games where Miami and Baltimore two non blowouts for Buffalo this year and quarters one to three Singletary has a 72 percent snap share this year Which is really good and then in the fourth quarter It's 46% and that just goes to show that Buffalo is a good team who can blow teams out And when they do that Devin Singletary is not on the field Devin Singletary is there are be one You know, I do think that his usage is probably gonna be pretty strong in this game Given the fact that it should be a back-and-forth Hopefully close game and hopefully competitive game and then you can look at the other side too You know with the running back position, you know I've talked about this plenty on this show and on other shows But Clyde Edwards-Alair has now out snapped Jerick McKinnon once this year Which is crazy because he's still seeing better usage And you know the backfield shares better than what Jerick McKinnons has been but McKinnon's numbers aren't significantly far off in terms of Just general volume on the ground and through the air versus Clyde Edwards-Alair I mean where they're seeing touches is a little bit different, you know Edwards-Alair obviously has had some regression coming, you know for a while and it's just gonna continue that way You know, he's not gonna maintain the the receiving touchdowns that that he was seeing But that's definitely something to keep an eye on because I think that in in a game like this If you look at the one game where Clyde Edwards-Alair saw a lot of work It was that game against Tampa Bay another another just you know prime time game bigger game I don't think it's as obvious as what we're gonna see from Buffalo with their running back usage Because I think Andy Reid literally just wants a rotation like it's just the way that this backfield is whereas with Buffalo You're looking at Devin Singletary and you're saying a 72% snap share, you know He could hit a three-quarter percent, you know, three-quarter snap share in this big game That's a really really big deal and then the last thing I want to touch on you know Obviously both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen can push the ball down the field But Mahomes this year has actually been below average in 15 plus air yard rate You know obviously he you know last a year and a half two years He's just doing what the defense is giving him and playing into that Josh Allen in terms of 15 plus air yard rate has been pretty average So they're not pushing the ball down the field with insane frequency, right? And so far this year Kansas City and Buffalo both rank in the bottom five and 15 plus air yard Rate allowed so they're both teams that that have not allowed these deep balls to happen very frequently Now some of that could be you know when a defense is playing in a positive game script the opposing You know the defense is gonna play a little bit more prevent and play a little bit safer Because they don't want to give up those big plays and so the opposing quarterbacks are just kind of dinking and dunking Which is sort of what we saw with Kenny pick it a little bit last week and what we've seen You know, we just see that with these quarterbacks against these teams But I do think it's at least interesting to think about in this context I think everyone just assumes that it's gonna be big play after big play which is very very possible Of course, it's possible you're talking about two of the best arms and best quarterbacks in football But so far this season and even you know extended the last season a little bit These two teams, you know, aren't necessarily pushing the ball down the field as frequently as you might think and then the defenses Are also actually playing pretty well against that deep ball pass. Yeah And the the bills specifically tend to play a lot of like too high Defenses that's what last year led to the chiefs kind of being more conservative in terms of this year It has up in the case because they don't have guys who can get open against man cover so teams like okay Feel free try to beat us because you can't and That's supposed to be a different approach this week, too But that approach is gonna be more conducive to underneath stuff in that situation, too So despite it being a different defense same approach there and the chiefs just played a lot of too high as well Now we did see Gabe Davis say, you know double barrel middle fingers to that last year Just kind of running past both to say she's like haha I can do this but I think that overall mindset makes a lot of sense with single Terry going back to him He had 90 plus yards in scrimmage in both those those tighter script games Are you looking at a rushing plus receiving prop? Is that kind of the first place? You're looking to see if there's value there or what do you think like a receiving prop? What do you think is where are you looking first? I should say yeah I'd probably say rushing plus receiving only because you know game script can go in a lot of different ways Like if this is a true shootout then yeah, I would still expect single Terry to be the primary receiving back in that offense And so, you know, you're not really having to having to choose Whether or not this is going to be You know this like super high-scoring game or not You know, I think it's just safer to go with the the combination of the two But I do think that you could make the argument that both, you know, depending on where that line sits You know, you could make the argument that both rushing and receiving is probably a decent a decent thing to at least analyze and Look at for single Terry for sure Especially if you know the chiefs are playing back It could be a situation the bills at least try to run on that kind of defense as well Okay, let's go to the situations to target has mentioned that's been kind of a productive area this year You talked about Ramon or Stevenson a couple weeks ago. Yeah, Josh Jacob's last week is being a guy to go to when you're looking for Evolving situations, which ones stand out to you for this week. Yeah, you know This kind of stuff is usually running back focused because running backs at the end of the day You know, it's a coaching decision coaches say we want to throw you on the field We don't want to throw you on the field and there's two stud running backs right now who are seeing their backup Sort of take more and more work from them at least over the last couple weeks You have Dalvin cook and Leonard for net So, you know, the first two weeks of the season Dalvin cook was at about a 75% snap rate really good snap rate That's been closer to 60% over the last two weeks given that shoulder So Alexander Madison is getting a little bit more run Dalvin cook is not as a result of that And I know, you know Dalvin cook still had a great game last week and he's still gonna produce It's not like he's gonna be irrelevant But I do think that that given the fact that you can pinpoint one specific thing happening Which is the shoulder injury as to why his snap share has declined I think that's something that you definitely should monitor and realize that it's that it's real and happening With Leonard for net first three weeks 76% snap share 87% snap share 91% snap share So three very very good numbers last two weeks 61% 62% They vocally said that they wanted to get Rashad white more involved in the offense That is exactly what they've been doing. So again, you know, both Lenny and Dalvin Are good players and they're going to still see good production But I do think that you should keep an eye on the the backups there like Alexander Madison and Rashad white Especially, you know a guy like Rashad white this week going up against Pittsburgh an easy defense a defense They can beat and they're eight and a half point road favorites If they do hit that positive game for if you could see more Rashad white in that game as a result So it's definitely something to monitor definitely something to keep an eye on because both for net and Dalvin cook are seeing decreased snap rates yeah, I was pretty heavy on Dalvin last week and In DFS and I felt very lucky to get out with two touchdowns in that game I didn't I don't think I deserve that based on because his role got worse I thought that the decrease snap rate week four was a one-week anomaly because the shoulder injury and it turns out No, it was not so I was I felt very lucky to get out of a game with what I got Based on what was happening there. Okay. Let's take a look at some yardage props for week number six Where you see in value right now in the yardage categories? Let's look at Zach Hertz. You have this Seattle, Arizona game that should be pretty high scoring this week You know just just giving the slate, which is wild that we're saying that You know Smith led team, but he's crushing it right now. I mean the man is balling out Zach Hertz's line is 48 and a half receiving yards. I'm taking the over there actually You know Hertz has hit 55 or more receiving yards in each game since week one and in week one It was that blowout loss against Kansas City. He only played 60% of Arizona snaps every other game He's been in at least 82% so he's playing a lot more than that week one game He now has a 22% target share per game over his last four, which is a very very good target share for tight end Seattle's also been horrific against the tight end position They've allowed the most tight end receiving yards this season We obviously that's skewed a little bit towards because of that TJ Hawkinson game where he went absolutely bonkers against them But Denver tight ends in week one had 85 yards against them Ross Dwelley hit 38 Kyle Pitts Kyle Pitts even had a good game against this Seattle defense. He had 87 yards against them So given the fact that Zach Hertz has basically been around this line over the last month Now he gets this plus matchup in a higher scoring game and in a good game environment I think going over that 48 and a half mark makes a lot of sense for Zach Hertz this week Yeah with Zach Hertz I thought maybe with Rondell Moore being back because like in week four or Earth's role took a tiny step back six targets there But Rondell Moore fully active with AJ Green last week as well and Earth's bounce back with ten targets there I think it's kind of a confirmation that no this is not a product of not having Rondell Moore It was just Zach Hertz is involved in this offense for sure and interestingly enough, you know Rondell whenever he first came back without AJ Green That was a game where Greg Dorch was playing the slot still and Rondell was on the outside in this past week Rondell's playing the slot again, which would cannibalize that that work with Zach Hertz You know in the middle of the field a little bit and it didn't and so, you know I think but I mean look from just like a regular like season-long standpoint like I like Rondell Moore, too But you know Zach Hertz I think this line is just this is basically what we would project in a neutral Environment, you know neutral just just general matchup, but in this matchup. I think he's got to go over. Yeah Zach Hertz 48 and a half receiving yards there. Which other ones are you seeing from a yardage perspective that you're seeing value right now? Yeah, we're gonna go to James Robinson You know, this is technically another one of those situations that you could be monitoring because over the last couple weeks We've seen Travis ETN play more snaps than Robinson, but you know a lot of that is game script related I mean, this is something that we've been talking about basically all season long where Jacksonville is good If they're if they're leading James Robinson is gonna be on the field He's the early down back if they're trailing they're gonna go to the receiving back Travis ETN And that's just the way that it is But I do think that we could see a shift between James Robinson and Travis ETN sooner rather than later James Robinson look we all want him to crush it I mean he's coming off a horrific injury for a football player, but he has not been very good efficiency wise He's been the second worst running back in football in terms of success rate That's number fires expected points model this generating that only Najee Harris has been worse And the two guys that are right ahead of him are Joe mix and then camp makers And if you were to pull people pull football fans and say who have been the three worst running backs in football this year they'd probably say Najee Harris Joe mix and then camp makers and James Robinson is right there with them meanwhile Travis ETN has a success rate That's 12 percentage points higher than what James Robinson has seen He's just been better like flat out. He's just been better. So the line here. This is over on DK It's a 40 and a half rushing yards. It's at minus 3 130 So it's not like the best juice in the world necessarily But I do like the under, you know against a Colts team also that's been very very good Against running backs. They have the fourth best success rate allowed to the running back position this season And in Robinson's hit that he's hit 29 and 27 rushing yards over his last two So this is not a number where you look at it You say oh, they're they're baking in the fact that Travis ETN might see more work or might might end up seeing more work This is a line where you know, it's basically being projected that you know Jack I mean, no, yeah, but Jacksonville could also trail in this game, right? This is not a lock that they would want it So there's a lot working against James Robinson right now is basically what I'm getting at and then the other one The last one this one's kind of a deep cut, but I think it makes some sense I think there's some logic here Caleb Huntley who some of you might not have even heard of before He has a line of 26 and a half rushing yards over on DK minus 115 I like the under there The reason I saw this even was I was looking at Tyler Algiers line because this matchup is kind of interesting From the standpoint of you know last week They play Tampa Bay and I think there's this still this the stigma and idea that Tampa Bay is really really good at stopping The run which they have been over the last like two or three years But this season so far they've actually ranked 26th in success rate allowed to opposing running backs And so Tyler Algiers last week, you know, he plays 60% of the team snaps He sees like a 55 ish percent running back rush here His usage was fine as like a 1a in a committee backfield And so I was looking at that I was like well the matchups a lot better against San Francisco this week Because they're the second best team against running backs and success rate so maybe we should take the under with Algiers and then I see Caleb Huntley sitting there at 26 and a half rushing yards. I was like that seems a little bit too high a gift Yeah, yeah, you know Caleb Huntley played only 24% of their snaps last week He saw a third of the teams running back rushes. I just don't think Atlanta is going to be Nearly as effective on the ground in this game against San Francisco And then on top of that Atlanta has been a very very very very run heavy team so far this year like both in neutral game Scripts and just overall ratio in the way that they've been throwing the ball. It's something that will regress I mean, it's something that we don't see and what we haven't seen over the last decade Sustained for an entire season So I do think we're going to see a little bit more throwing and then on top of that San Francisco actually ranks first and Adjusted target share allowed to running backs this season, which means teams aren't using aren't doing well with running backs on the ground But they're using them through the air against San Francisco a little bit So we could see that happen So I wouldn't go with like a total yardage prop with any of these backs But I do think from a rushing yardage standpoint it makes a lot of sense to hit the under Yeah, I think the Bucks point is very important with regards to expectation setting for what teams do against them because they lost I'm down to consume sign to Keem Hicks, but a Keem Hicks got hurt in week two Yeah It's a very different defense and we've seen the past and like they still want to stop the run But their ability to do so is not as absurd as it was previously. They also have a great past defense You know, so so teams aren't necessarily going to attack them that way. Right exactly. Okay. What about touchdown props? What do you see in there for week six? I've got one one touchdown prop this week. Remandry Stevenson over on DK right now is currently plus money to score a touchdown And if you look at basically any other book You're not gonna have plus money for Remandry Stevenson to score a touchdown Damien Harris over on DK is actually both Both he and Damien Harris are at plus 105 And so Damien Harris right now according to NFL Network There's a report earlier this week saying that he's probably gonna miss multiple games He is limited in practice right now. He's not technically out yet Chances are they're just jacking with you like I I got so mad when I saw Wednesday I was like the bowl like I you you had to know they were gonna do that. You're right, right So he's been limited in practice. He's almost definitely not gonna go like we can't say definitely because it's not official yet But I would be shocked if Damien Harris plays this week not only that but the Patriots signed Kevin Harris who was a Rookie that they drafted after Pierre Strong in this year's NFL draft So now they have you know, Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris behind Remandry Stevenson Stevenson has been playing You know passing down work, you know, this is something that we've been talking about on the show a lot He's basically seeing two-thirds of the team's backfield share if not more in some of these games You know, obviously Damien Harris gets hurt last week So it was a little bit more and then you have a game a match against Cleveland Cleveland's been one of the worst teams in football against running backs this year They've allowed the fifth most rushing yards of the position their bottom 10 in success rate allowed to the position So if Harris is out, which I think is probably 98 99% chance if Harris is out Stevenson, I think will be the bell cow on this game for New England and getting it Getting him at plus 105 when we know that they're going to be more than likely a run heavy team in the red zone I think it's really really good odds. So that's a plus 105 of DK minus 135 at Fandall minus 200 You can get that a plus money Before Harris is ruled out because he will be I'm almost positive like this could be freezing cold takes but like yeah They're like they had Mac freakin Jones practice on a high ankle sprain the Friday after he went down. They're just messing with you It's just it's the Patriot way as always for sure. All right That is all that we have here for this week JJ though I want to give a big thank you for stopping by check out JJ at late round QB find his work at late round comm and Check out the late round fantasy football podcast for all of your season law needs. Well JJ. Good luck to you week six We'll talk to you once again next week. Thanks Jim make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are of course on the Fandall YouTube page as well I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can also follow the Fandall podcast network college football week seven preview with Ed Feng and Ben Stevens up We had Tom Becky you on for week six the NFL for the full betting preview find all those on your podcast feed Good luck to you this week. We'll talk to you once again Monday for some Monday night football action This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network