 Okay, we are going to start in a few seconds. Good morning everybody, it's 8am Eastern, that's New York time. Welcome to Wednesday the 13th of December, that's the final fed day of 2023. Morning Marius. And yeah, without further ado, let's get the disclaimers underway. All bookmap limited materials, information and presentations are for educational purposes only, and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Trading futures, equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Okay, right, with that out of the way, we've got a zoomed out picture of the two heatmaps. I think I've got the font settings okay today, so everything's fine. Let's quickly get on to the slideshow. This being Wednesday, we're going to do more of a technique session. We are going to stream the PPI release at 8.30. Our friends at Financial Juice should be live, hopefully on the YouTube audio and hopefully on the Discord audio as well. Anyway, I hope everybody is having a really good week. Let's do that slideshow. Okay, just the key events, the important three bar events. We've got the set of the PPI. There's quite a few individual PPI releases, but effectively it's one release, the PPI month on month at 8.30 New York time. Then you've got the Fed interest rate decision at 2 o'clock and just as important, the press conference at 2.30. So yeah, it's the rate itself and then their dot points and whatever words are in their statements. So that's when the fireworks are going to begin. And yeah, even though I wouldn't be talking at that time, just bear in mind that the first move is often to send you the wrong way. That's kind of the way that FMC works in the afternoon. It's about 3.30 a.m. my time. I occasionally do get up, but I doubt very much I'm going to get up tomorrow, or tomorrow my time or today your time. Okay, let's keep moving with the slideshow. Okay, this is the daily. So you can see we're continuing on this theme that we were talking about for the last few days. Essentially we're in a range after a big move up and we're getting towards the your highs in ES and NQ. So as long as we stay in that range and until we see some real down movement, it remains bullish. And this is also reflected as I've got a five-minute chart. I haven't even bothered to show yesterday's session on this five-minute chart. This just shows you how strong and how range bound the action has been in ES and NQ, NQ on top, ES below all day in the ETH session. ES here is only five points worth of range so far, which is absolutely minuscule but a quarter of the expected range or the average range. And you can see that we're staying well above yesterday's high and settlement in both ES and NQ and they're basically in a holding pattern pending these economic releases and especially the Fed one this afternoon. So nothing really surprising there. For the TPO's today, I've just got the screenshots because there isn't an awful lot to do in terms of aggregating the individual profiles of the last few days. We've basically broken above the extended profile of yesterday and we're in this tiddly range. What I have marked on and you can see this in Bookmap when we get back to the Bookmap is the options open interest for the 4,750 and 4,600 SPX options. There's currently a premium of about 53 between the March 24 futures and the SPX and I've just gotten there just because there is a large amount of options interest at those three strikes. So that's just there for interest. That will not reflect the change in live options. We're going to go back a little bit a little bit more statewide during the session. In fact, it goes really live at 8am as in now. But yeah, there are some services around that do that. This is just just general information just to show where some of those may be positioned at a longer term. NQ again, just a screenshot of the TPO and you can see we're well above the extended range and we just been rocketing up and we will talk about that in a second. On the relative volume side rather 73%, low considering we're in the middle of the week and we've got these economic releases but then again, not unexpected because we have those major releases especially the Fed this afternoon. So again, this reflects that we're in a holding pattern and you can see actually, yes, there's six points now. I lied, I thought it was five, it's actually six. Wow, but it is very, very small. And just a quick snapshot of what has happened in pre-market with the underlying stocks and the only point really to note here is that there's nothing bearish. You can see Microsoft's had a nice bump up and so has Google but there's nothing bearish yet. So nothing is really removing to the downside in pre-market which again is consistent with the fact that we are in a range. Okay, as always, hey morning Tom and morning Stan. As always, if anybody has any questions feel free to ask either on YouTube where I can see the comments or in the Discord channel. Okay, and since this is a technique session we're looking at the two heat maps. I will again explain what is present on these heat maps. By the way, you can see that option open interest from the TPO's there in purple. I'm just pointing out that's the 4,650 SPX option strike. Right, so I have a dimmed out heat map. You can see the slider here in ES sliding all the way to the right to show that this is the least brightness possible. If I slide it all the way back you can see the difference between maximum brightness and minimum brightness. Okay, when you are zooming all the way out and we've got 70 points here you can see on the vertical range of 70 points. It is easier to see if you do have it dimmed out when you are zooming this far out. And the reason we are starting off with a zoomed out picture is to give a high level perspective where these sitting orders which may be magnets or support and resistance later on have been present. So if we scroll all the way back both in NQ on the left and ES on the right you can see where liquidity has been and if we start with ES you can see this order at 4721 of 250 and I've marked that option's interest for the 4700 strike up above but that's where the liquidity is at 4721. If we zoom out a little bit you can see that they are beginning to add some more liquidity below so they are hedging their bets but in terms of liquidity that has been there all day and that has bounded the price action it's the 4710 so you've got 200 there you've got 250 up above and that's essentially where they've been and we've been in this range and if we zoom vertically let me just get that on and we go back a bit you can see that yeah that they have essentially had a liquidity resistance up about the 0525 and below at the 4700 itself so that has essentially held price if we actually look over at these two columns so again so this is just a heat map the only add-on that is present on this heat map by the way this is unfiltered this is just the bog standard ES heat map the only thing on here is these stops and icebergs and if we look at the settings for the stops and icebergs on chart you can see that we're just filtered by 50 I don't rely on it heavily but I do like to see the larger MBO stops and icebergs so that's the anything that is present there there are no volume dots there are no volume bars as I explained a couple of weeks ago and again last week I've got access and I'm sure most of the people watching this have got access to things like a DOM with columns that show you how many orders are hitting above and below they've got volume bars on whatever software they use I've got Sierra but you know Bookmap for example has got the Trader DOM Pro but you know you've got Ninja, you've got RRT you've got all sorts of software even TradingView has got volume bars so I don't feel that there is tremendous need in this session when I'm really talking about how I use Bookmap and how I use it to see a clearer picture to cloud that picture sorry my phone is now on silent time I was unaware it was not on silent so apologies for that but I don't see the need to over complicate the picture by having lots and lots of bubbles all over this heatmap what we want to see is is price action on this heatmap and when we zoom in we'll see that and also where this liquidity is tracking and where it's stable so that's why that's there in terms of the columns we've got the order book column which is just the numbers again you can configure these exactly as you'd like so if we go through the columns I'll just explain what they all are again I'm doing this as a technique session so this is just the order book and it's just the numbers only and it's showing both sides and it's the extended order book so it's the whole order book which in NASDAQ's case is probably about 800 levels the next column I have which is this one it's called EX because it's a cloud note which is linked to my execution chart in Sierra so anytime I draw a strip or a rectangle and give it some text it appears here and the next one is from my TPO which you saw and that's again where I draw rectangles and give them some text they appear in this cloud notes cloud notes column there the delta and the volume profile so the delta it is the volume profile but with this delta box ticked so this is showing the ask volume sorry the ask volume versus the bid volume differential and I'm showing it bars only so for this purpose especially for the technique session I don't want to cloud this with having numbers I just want a graphical picture so we can clearly see where we have fuel so when we start talking about a strategy in order flow this is the column that gives us a picture of the fuel and the CVP is the chart volume profile and this gives us a picture of the actual auction that may be happening and I like talking about fractals of auctions so if we zoom all the way out you can see you've got this today you've got this quite balanced normal distribution type auction which is over here a bit bigger you can see it maybe exactly the same as it appeared in that screenshot I had of the TPO it's basically very very similar in terms of its graphic presentation and with NQ if we did that let's just blow up the NQ because there's more that's happened with NQ you're always going to get more action in the ETH session so that if we look at again we've got one balanced profile overall but within that for example if we zoom right into the current little bit of action there and if I try and get you can see it's relatively balanced it's a little bit poor on the south side so it's a bit heavier down here than there but you can see within that the fractal of the current auction and if you zoomed right in you get a nice short bit of height balanced profile but again it's showing you those fractals and one of the benefits of having such a clean representation of this heat map that I like in NQ is also that you can drag this left and right I'm just dragging it with my mouse by holding the left click button down to have a look at other auctions one of the reasons why you might do that is back testing this concept of fuel that I talk about in this channel and see where you have a trapped set of cell volume and again we've got no numbers here so we're just doing it purely on the delta visual representation whether that then acts as a trap to provide fuel to go up as both I and my colleague Tom state quite often price goes down to go up and price goes up to go down and by that we mean it goes down to get this fuel to then go up so if we go up to where price went up from and we can zoom right into this it's probably best to actually get it from where it was topping it there this is not a very good example but quite often you'll see a long green tail and that will then provide the impetus of fuel to get back down okay I've got to do a time check because I know we are on a tight schedule so we do not miss the 830 news release okay so let's just blow that back out make sure that's not too wide so that we can still see all of this and zoom all the way back in so if we just quickly look at where we are so we're in this balance that I mentioned on NQ you can see the range really it's really tiddly for an NQ type range it's essentially about 611.5 612 down to 604 for NQ that is remarkably small for it to stay in a range like that for over 30 minutes that's quite rare that tells you that it is most likely in a holding pattern whenever I start using words like certainty I have to correct myself there are no certainties in this game this is a game of maths probability, chance good luck, bad luck and a lot of it is about protecting yourself from the bad luck that can happen all you can do in this game in my view is developer strategy which has clear edge in terms of it gets you more money than you lose when you're right and that you have a strategy that you believe shows you things that you're more likely to be wrong than you are more likely to be right than you are to be wrong even though you can do quite well if you are exactly 50-50 in terms of right and wrong or even less than 50-50 psychologically it's quite hard to deal with a winning strategy that is say 30 or 40% win rate even if it has great big wins it does tend to grind you down if you are a day trader rather than a multi-day swing trader let me just quickly flip through some notes macro strategy order flow just a reference for me to talk about by the way this is the NQ unfiltered and for a change this is actually quite legible or normally we've got these algo bands which are just above and below you can see them at about about eight or nine points below and eight or nine points above and they absolutely dominate the heat map but at the moment you've got some really really heavy liquidity which is more dominant than those algo bands so that is quite apparent so you can see if we zoom out that you've got these liquidity bands here one at 13 there was one at 20 which has been ditched or mostly ditched one at 33 that's gone and there's some new ones below at 580 and 576 and that probably equates with what we are seeing over here in ES with these new liquidity bands that went in about the same time so if you can see the vertical cursor that I've got which is saying at about 540am New York time those liquidity bands went in at exactly the same time in ES and NQ when things like that happen you take note you don't say oh great there's liquidity there it's definitely going to go there I'll take a trade now that is not what you do you stick to your strategy you stick to your setups you stick to the game that you have been playing that is making you money and you just build those into your observations of the market and maybe they will form part of a target or maybe there will be an entry if you are going along later on during the course of the session whether it's the next hour or during the RTH session or this afternoon's Fed release who knows when or if those liquidity bands below are going to be tagged macro I was alluding to talking about macro I don't think in day trading you can really even apply a strategy which is as good you might be the world's best scalper you might be somebody who is really really good into quite small swings I'd call my style sort of more smaller swings not tiddly little scalps I'm not going for a point or two points in ES or NQ I'm going for larger swings than that but it's still relatively small swings I don't think you can execute that kind of strategy without having some understanding of the macro environment that we're in and I do like to talk about that macro whenever I can in these sessions people do take the time to make sure they're abreast of what's happening and that they can find sources just quick summary sources to help them determine what that macro is whether it's like a one major that you read on substack or there's a certain couple of Twitter feeds that you read or you're a full blown macro economist and you read a thousand articles a month it really doesn't matter too much as long as you have a relatively good inkling of what is happening and what is happening apart from the fact that we're in OPEX week so we've got option expiry on Friday the monthly options expiry that is are in a period of euphoria or relative bullish euphoria where the markets believe that the interest rate cuts are coming it's a bit like that Green Day song The Saints are coming after Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans but yeah the market believes the interest rates cuts are coming in 2024 and so they're pricing in a big move to the upside and that's effectively what we've seen coming into that daily and we see we're at basically multi month highs one point to note when the market does get euphoric is that that euphoria can last a lot longer than common sense might prevail so you might think surely it can't keep going up now it can't keep going up it's completely ridiculous whatever opinions you might have they're irrelevant if the market on an auction this is auctioning upwards based on euphoria or whatever and it is finding buyers it will continue to auction upwards until until exhaustion is reached and nobody else wishes to buy up there it does not appear that has happened yet but you never know maybe this afternoon if if the Fed say something not as bullish or suggest that there may yet be another interest rate rise who knows what hell may break loose quick time check at 21 so we've got about 7 or 8 minutes okay so there's that and the other piece of macro news that came in in the last 7 days is that whilst people believe that the US is going to begin to cut interest rates early next year Japan has signaled the absolute opposite so if you look at the USD JPY exchange rate that USD is going down Japan yen is going up and that seems to have had a bullish effect on stocks or equity indices in general as well so you've got that sort of compounding the view that interest rate cuts are coming in the US so that's the cherry on top of the cake so that's my bit of macro right so in terms of what I'm looking for in my trading plan and my strategy that I've been talking about session after session and week after week in these webinars I'm somebody that believes in auctions, auction theories supply and demand, Wycoff it's all essentially the same thing so I'm looking for price exploration through value I'm looking to see where is the auction and if we're in a balanced environment I'm looking to trade the extremes of the ranges and if we're in a trending environment I'm seeking to go with it and be very, very careful with fading it and not holding on to trades that fade a strong trend move lest I destroy my trading account okay so let's have another look we talked about that in terms of strategy itself and setups I've described a few of the setups that I look at and I've got favourites like the swing failure patterns or the breakout failures or the springs that are up for us whatever you'd like to call them I've got tests of a range or tests of the supply demand zone it's essentially the same concept and the two that I don't tend to talk about and I won't talk about too much in these sessions are the concept of breakouts which I do not do very often because they don't tend to work out very well and pullbacks I'm essentially doing my pullbacks sort of a fractal within a fractal so I'm using the same strategy I've got for a range in a smaller fractal than the bigger fractal which may be trending upwards or downwards so if you get what I'm saying I'm going down a time frame to see the kinds of setups that I want to get on board the trend okay let's have a look okay and finally on our technique piece let's talk about order flow right just checking ah good morning on YouTube Magdy Salome welcome and yeah good morning to you so I hadn't scrolled down to see the chat okay order flow right order flow is a nebulous non-objective term which means a million different things to a million different people and if you go on the web or you go on YouTube or wherever you go to get your infotainment or your education you will see completely different meanings I would treat the word with the words the two words order flow as literally that the flow of orders so I see it as mainly a time based motion of orders and in terms of what I'm looking for in order flow what I've been talking about before is I'm looking for little vicious slips up and down and I'm looking for fuel on this side and I'm looking to see where the liquidity is moving or is staying the same so that's essentially how I'm using order flow inside book map maybe as we talk about individual setups that come into play during this session if you haven't been to some of these sessions before where I describe what's happening and what's likely to happen and I try very very hard and I fail sometimes I try not to predict the future what I try and say is that there is a strong probability that we will go in direction A or direction B but you'll get the idea of how I actually use that order flow so I see it mainly as a time based flow of these orders I do also believe that you know I have a very short term time frame chart in Sierra that I look at in conjunction with this I love the way that book map has it because you can zoom right in and you can see you can see these little vertical moves up and down so you can see this one in NQ you see this move here in NQ where my cursor is that's a vertical move and that is often retraced and has already been retraced here in terms of auction theory as to why it might be retraced one theory might be that the auction did not properly occur because we just slip through a whole bunch of prices without having a proper auction and that's one of the reasons why it often comes back but I'm sure there are other theories as well so that's one of the reasons why I like looking at the minuscule time frame based price action in book map and I prefer that to using any indicators again as I've said before I have coded a lot quite a few different platforms, I've coded a bunch of indicators I do not use them I do use short term time frame charts like book map and in Sierra and I do like looking at other ways to see these auctions or fractals so whatever other types of bar period that you occasionally look at to get a slightly different angle on that for example point and figure or reversal or renco or range or case whatever it is just to give yourself a different perspective on the auction that is taking place sometimes having that different type of time period helps you better see the overall balance distribution and also where people are getting trapped so that's one of the reasons why I use them so whilst I do have that daily TPO there I've got smaller fractals of the profile to help me better see what is happening but as I say you don't need those you can actually do that within book map with this column here the CVP and by zooming in and out of the chart and dragging it left and right to see those fractals as they occur okay so let's have a look over here at time okay let's better turn that feed on so that should be I'm just double checking the stream yep it's got the browsers on so I'm going to just turn that up so the volume of financial juice will be a little bit louder and we are 50 seconds away my trading engine is not on I'm saving my bullets for later today in the RTH session the morning session that is probably taking small to medium swings but I am not trading this so I'm just observing what is going to happen so we've seen that a lot of liquidity the close by liquidity has been removed and they have yeah they've taken out most of the liquidity you can zoom out you can see the liquidity bounding 4680 and 4721 so let's just see what happens let's focus on ES and we've got about 10 seconds left very small iceberg sell iceberg just above and we're at this options open interest level okay so that's annoying the chart zoomed in on me so I have to get rid of that I'm trying to draw the scene of the crime so let's try again let's hope it doesn't slip on us about there and I think we need to zoom out in ES to really draw it so I'll try it again over here hasn't been a big move in ES essentially where that iceberg was at about 4704 and we're retesting it already so what we do on some of these news releases is see where exactly or the price level zone that the release came out in and see if there was a move away you know whether it's up or down if it's a significant move away we consider a crime to have been occurred in other words something happened to cause the price action I'll just turn off that feed now and that's why we mark with a cyan line where that crime occurred because it's quite often a good reference point it will often be tagged even if we have a trend up session it stays above that it often comes back to just tag it and then if it does go back to the other side on this side if it goes to the south side I below that line that gives us market generated information that the scene of the crime itself is not holding you know occasionally that won't provide good information occasionally it will wick up and down backwards and forwards across that scene of the crime but that does not usually happen so here NQ's provided a much better scene of the crime than ES even if we zoom in vertically so we're holding that we broke through the liquidity that remained and was retained at 16.613.25 and it is exploring up a little bit there's no resting liquidity so these are all just algo bands whereas this liquidity at 4710 which got put back you can look at it as resting liquidity when I use that term resting liquidity I put more weight on it than I do algo bands it's because there is a higher probability that price will approach it doesn't have to tag it we're just talking about approaching it so in ES's case that's within one or two ticks of that liquidity usually because NQ is such a thin instrument that one or two ticks doesn't really apply so you know if it was within two points that's just about the same thing and you'll see me zoom in and out on that heat map to try and get some better visual clarity so I'm trying to get clarity on seeing the heat map better and I'm also looking to see what we can see on these delta and profile or auctioning columns so if you look at ES we're right at that scene of the crime level it wasn't much of a crime that's like two points not a real crime and we're back underneath it and NQ we're about to tag it and we have tagged it and we're now underneath it so at this point let's have a look at those liquidity bands that were placed at 537 below you got that you got two key levels there yesterday's high and settlement T plus one so that's interesting as well adds confluence to the fact that you know we may get a tag of that at some point again we're not expecting a tag right this second things take time to play out I mean even if you trade NQ where you can hit your targets in about three and a half seconds sometimes patience is still a tremendous virtue with trading NQ as it is with the ES if you wait and you wait until you see that fuel in place you know the trap by fuel or the trap cell fuel you may find that your maximum adverse excursion which is how far into the hole you go on a trade will be less than it otherwise was just simply because you're patient okay so we're now under that scene of the crime for ES and NQ I mean this whole point about having something within a point so we don't look at individual price lines as one price it's a zone so the fact that it only managed to break the scene of the crime by one point we only really did a spring of this little swing low there that in our eyes should be that it is holding the scene of the crime and it remains bullish from that news release and looking across at that USPPI so it was 0.9% I mean the actual numbers don't matter to us as day traders but it's red in fact because it is less than forecast it's forecast at 1% but you know after the price action has settled down a bit or sometimes when I get a chance straight away I always have a look at it just to see you know it was worse than expected and the market was bullish you know it is market generated information that the market reacted in that way to essentially bad economic news in other words why is the market reacting like that because the market likes anything that currently that is bad economic news because it may believe it being the larger players who ever control the market or who have the pockets to provide stronger price action than you and I on the retail side they may believe that that means we're more likely to get those interest rate cuts next year or less likely to get interest rate rises so yeah that's been a consistent theme over the economic releases over the last few weeks that it does not matter if it's slightly worse than expected you know the market likes it and you could also say that it didn't really matter it could have printed anything at all and most likely we would have had a bullish reaction and that probably can be considered true as well only if it had something that was completely out of the ordinary by way of that release would we have likely got a bearish reaction and that is the macro environment that we're in and that's why it's worth bearing in mind you know having some knowledge of that environment before you get to these news releases okay time to zoom out a bit and have another look so let's actually get into the fuel on the ES side let's blow the ES up and so let us look at this move from 830 so we're going to try and get across 830 this is where we're using the power of an infinite scroll mouse with book maps amazing micro second, millisecond feature so what we're looking at here is the fuel at the top so the idea is the visual representation even though it's relatively balanced in terms of the profile you've got this nice draw, we haven't actually drawn at all today let's change colours to that colour so you've got this this nice bit of green fuel potential trap buyers to get as to get the fuel to get down to that scene of the crime so that's what I'm suggesting with the way that I've set my book map up I'm looking to be patient I'm looking for scenarios where I have a potential fuel trap which lines up with the direction that I'm going in so for that I was looking for a fade back, I'm not trading right now but I would have been looking for a fade back to that scene of the crime let me just get back on the cursor and as we zoom out a bit you can see let me just get rid of that you can see the potential trapped fuel to get us back down to this level, again this is a game of probabilities and are multiples and the question is if you were trading towards that did you have a tight enough risk to make that trade worth it and if you're trading in NQ you're more likely to be a price fighter and what that means is you're not going to take a trade unless there's a really good prize involved because there are so many opportunities in NQ both in ETH and RTH and so why are you going to take something where the actual R reward might be only 0.5 of an arm what I mean by that is that if we draw where the risk might be up there then you've got a reward there that might be twice as big as that is that really worth it and the answer in my view is no but that's just to give you an illustration of why that delta fuel can be useful just fast forward to now just having another look here so by doing that I completely missed what was happening in NQ so we had something that's been quite rare recently which is a large resting cell iceberg in NQ that absorbed enough buyers to give us a really, really good move so what I was talking about earlier was going down a fractal so if you go down to a fractal we haven't got a specific time frame on this chart but say we're going down to a fractal of a time frame this is still a double top and then an upthrust, a breakout failure up into both a cell iceberg and into liquidity above so one of my favorite trades and I'll draw this again this time is where you've got thick liquidity you've got a swing high and then we just take out that swing high and we stop just short of that liquidity and then we go down that's where you're using the power book map together with a traditional supply and demand type setup let me just ditch all that so in this circumstance as opposed to one ES you do have a tight stop so if we're going to draw this on again so you've got to say you'll say that essentially is where you would have got in around about here so we'd draw that across about this level and you could have had a nice five point stop there and it's already gone the ten point so you've got to are out of that if you had been stalking it again this is about patience and preparation it is not about chasing the trade is up there is not here here here all the way down here they are the risk to reward ratio is a live risk to reward ratio and you take the trade down here it's a much worse trade than it is up there it may be scary up here but we're not playing this game based on fear we're playing this game based on mathematics and the intention to try and earn more money than we lose okay so you'll often find when I'm doing these webinars that NQ is going to give us a lot more to talk about and a lot better price setups at this time of the day sometimes ES is really really good at this time of the day today it does seem as if it's waiting for RTH and the Fed release but NQ the only setups I took one short earlier today from a trading range extreme and there's been nothing else for me ES has given me nothing and I refuse to trade for a point it's just not my bag okay another time check so we've got about 15 minutes left so again if we're going to talk about how we'd use book map and we'd use this delta column so if we're in this trade here we've used this little trap of fuel to give us a trigger and we've got this scene of the crime or the zone the price zone of the crime not the exact level of 16.610 but the zone so you could say it's already got there because it got to 11.5 what we're looking at here is this red delta tail on this lower half because you know as I said we're talking about fractals upon fractals upon fractals so if you go down to this kind of fractal so we're going down a time frame you can see that this is a tail to get to get people on such a tiny time frame a long right so I'm not suggesting that it's going to go long for very far or that it might not get back down to the scene of the crime I'm just saying that it's this concept of a fractal within a fractal within a fractal and that's why you might want to use other bars in addition to very very short time frame bars and here we've got another book mat feature that I like to talk about and I do quite a few screenshots in the room which is if this was ES and you've got a resting cell iceberg and it's already got 78 which is a lot in NQ that becomes a target so even though it's also a trigger for a short which would have got to R if you're taking it in the right place it becomes a target for a long trade later on if that stays there again nothing works 100% but there is a good probability that these cell targets of resting icebergs above price do often get filled why because on auction price theory they're advertising that they wish to conduct more trade at that price level so that buyers and sellers will then auction back to that price zone at that level so that that trade can be conducted so that's why that probability works out whether it you know the probability that it does work out the statistic itself you have to look at that yourself in your research I'm afraid it's one of those where you have to do a manual back test and you know you have to go through your charts and note down when they occurred whether they got filled whether they didn't get filled you know were there any characteristics which said they were more likely to get filled than others but I've certainly found that if we were talking about ES rather than NQ it's a good probability that that would get tagged in NQ this is quite rare that you have such a large iceberg and then you've got this nice move away and then you've got this target above so you know if you were to take that trade you know what would you do you use this cell fuel as your trigger you would have used the scene of the crime potentially or just about there as a stop level so again you know maybe you got in a round about this level say 14 and you've got a 5 point stop and you know you're targeting right up to this level this time so you're trying to get it tagged so you're looking for an 11 point target and again if you get within half a point you know it is in your own interest to scale so you know if you're expecting a perfect single perfect tag every time after you've got 2R on your trade you're going to find sometimes that goes all the way back and you lose that 2R that's one of the reasons why I'm a strong believer in scaling also if you know if you're trading ranges let's draw a range here again so if you're trading ranges I'll just draw one over here so you've got a range high and a range low and a mid and price might go backwards and forwards and forwards quite often it might just do that though so that you know if you go along there targeting the top of the range it'll get the mid and it'll come straight back and if you haven't scaled to that mid you've got nothing even if you had a very very tight stop so you know there are lots of reasons why you would scale there are lots of reasons why you wouldn't scale but you know what you do in your trading plan and your strategies and your execution of your setups is up to you what would I have done in this scenario I would definitely have scaled by 23.5 I think it's likely that we will get back up there I'm looking at especially since this is the high of the day and I'm looking at the total number of contracts traded at the high and I'm seeing 107 so I haven't got I have not got a volume number column in here but I'm just looking across in Sierra and I can see 107 ordinarily you know that is not likely to be the final high of the day for an NQ session you know it'll be a smaller number than that but anyway it's quite often it will it will toy with you it will get to within half a point a point and then it will move away move away, look for fuel again if you're looking for fuel to get to the upside further you kind of have to go down a fractal to see where that fuel is developing to see if we can then get back up part of me also then wants to zoom out again have a look at this liquidity here at yesterday's high and think that if they can absorb enough buyers into this liquidity zone here 25 to 27 to 30 that may increase the probability that we will get down to this 16-5 80 level during RTH but we'll have to see so you can see again yeah we got really really close we got to 24-50 but we have not tagged that 25 on this one occasion, two occasion, three occasions on this really really low timeframe basis and you can also see that you've got a green delta fuel potential trap to get us down for a pullback again before we get up there so it will be interesting to see whether whether or not we now get up there without going and retracing a little bit but right now I would not want to short and over in AES let's have a look and see what's happening it's really just a lot slower in its motion you've got some support around the 05 04 so that was resistance early today so you know if we zoom all the way back in that level there, the 05 level was resistance and now it's now we've got liquidity support at the same level and here we go yep and we're through now so and now we're continuing up and we've got a nice little spike up and you can see that a little vertical spike back down which has been retraced already so you can see the move up was not a vertical spike but the move back down was and there should be a clear differential between them you should be able to see that so that there shouldn't be any doubt in your eyes what is a vertical move and again that is one of the beauties deep map and that's one of the reasons why I like it see that there, that's a vertical move and don't expect them to come back straight away sometimes they can take quite a long time before they come back it's just the probability is that they will at some point revisit that I think it's quite a higher probability we're talking about above 75% okay just double checking any more questions in YouTube or Discord we don't really have a big number of people today I know we've got a few in Discord I'm never quite sure sometimes on these Wednesday sessions I noted last week I thought it was quite a good technique session we went through quite a lot of stuff but maybe we're going to have to label them on YouTube so people are aware what is covered in the content of one of these webinars because there was a below average number of viewers on that particular one even though I thought the actual technique stuff was better than some of the other ones that I had done I'm also told with the YouTube stuff that a lot of this a lot of the videos on YouTube are aimed more at beginners so some of the stuff that we talk about in these types of webinars are not aimed at beginners they're not magic indicators they're nothing like that they require work effort and manual backtesting a lot of the time and zooming in and out and understanding the concept of multiple timeframes and fractals and a lot of people are not prepared to do that kind of work even though it would increase both their win rate not that that matters that much and more importantly there are multiples or their average are multiples and thus their expectancy of their business but that is the way that YouTube is and there isn't much that one can do about that but that's not really for me I'm not here to bullshit or lie or invent stuff I'm here to provide hopefully help on technique and also live analysis describe what I see in the pictures and what do I see right now in NQ since they lit up this liquidity here at 35 and we're driving towards it I'm just watching to see what happens in terms of the additional liquidity being provided around those levels that's where you can zoom in and out so you can see where that little level at 40-50 was added again I'm not convinced that the RTH morning session will be a trans-session I cannot predict the future and I've said that many, many times again and I'm just looking across by the way I didn't notice in the years but since 8.30, since that news release we have held that scene of the crime beautifully within one tick maybe two ticks we've lost it but it's held it absolutely beautifully and it's going up to this resting liquidity that's been there beforehand 202 now at 4.7.10 so did the heat map provide generated information that could have been useful to an ES trader? The answer is yes it did and that's something that I would say that with every single one of the tools that you use and you should have your own wiki you should have your own wikipedia that you've written describing each of those tools screenshots where appropriate and how they fit into your strategy and your trading plans so that you can refer to them because your memory is not going to be watertight no matter how good you think your memory is it is essential it is really really helpful to every single trader to be able to go back and refer to things that you observed and that's one of the reasons why I journal so that I have things that I can then put into little stub type articles inside a wiki that I can refer to so that if you see something sometimes it'll be the formation of an idea for a new edge or a new little mini setup or trigger or something like that that you can use that might be in play for a few weeks or a month it might be one of those temporary setups because sometimes these edges do not last forever and the fact that you've observed what's gone into play that is in play at the moment can help you for a few weeks and then you can also observe when it stops helping and you can then disregard it okay so we're now in this little ranging pattern here in NQ what we're going to do is zoom in and we're going to watch this delta column so we're going to see what are they trapped below to get us to this liquidity so this liquidity here when it came in firstly there and again here they didn't change liquidity but it's acted as resistance so the point to note is that these liquidities do have a double headed demon type of purpose they both act as support resistance also as magnets and you have to accept them for what they are but I'm hoping by zooming in and out there you can see we can see this delta fuel develop and we can also see this little bit of liquidity below in terms of liquidity sizes I like liquidity 30 and above NNQ I think I'm sure I've said that a few hundred times now as well anything below 30 in NQ I take with a massive grain of salt and yes I trade NQ and ETH a lot more than I do ES just because there are more opportunities to make multiple R trades and why do this if there are not multiple R trades there isn't much point it's a very very hard business there's plenty of luck involved a lot of it it's bad luck there are occasions where you execute really badly I had a trade after the CPI yesterday I had really good size on a short and I did not milk it properly and it was really bad execution by me and you have to accept and expect that you will do that from time to time your execution of your own strategy will not be perfect and a lot of what we're talking about here is discretionary rather than automated mechanical some of this I've written a couple of algos to get in that cover a couple of the triggers that I have and I'm quite happy provided I have a clear target to let my algos do the entry for me but most of the time I'm still manually entering just zoom in and focus on ES for the last few minutes we've only got one more minute so we've got this resting liquidity up above at 4.7.10 I thought we'd get closer than 3 ticks thought we might get to 2 ticks or so but we'll have to see it's just because this liquidity has been there for a while and we've had one approach ordinarily when it stays pretty much unchanged a filtered heat map so this is ES filtered by orders that have not changed by way of size or price level you can see the little break for the news release but effectively that's been in place for hours and hours and it's 181 orders so it's likely that they'll have a second approach but again I'm just observing I'm not trading until the RTH session okay I think I'm coming up to 9 o'clock you can see this support as well at the moment that's holding us that support there in ES is trying to push us into this resting liquidity let's see if they can do that job anyway I will call it a day there I hope the information has been useful and trade well people and enjoy the enjoy the Fed release this afternoon and the fireworks that are likely to happen cheers