 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The regular season went out with a bang last night with the Alliance and the Packers I of course had some money riding my game one of the lines to cover that spread and honestly just a Thrilling game from start to finish and honestly just a good season a fun NFL season Of course the DeMar Hamlin stuff was really tough to swallow and really tough to watch all that occur But overall this NFL season just phenomenal to start to finish And I am excited for this postseason the wild card matchups may not be the world's most exciting But I love that charger's Jags game got some stuff we'll talk about for that one later on I think that there are a lot of fun teams in the NFL this year not included in that game even so we're gonna break down What my numbers say about the wild card weekend from a betting perspective Let you know where I'm seeing value over if Angel Sportsbook check in on the futures market and get you set to play Some bets before this weekend welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number five Write down the wild card weekend from a betting perspective and let you know What my numbers are seeing in terms of the opening numbers over at Fandall Sportsbook We'll break down the wild card first look take a look at the Super Bowl futures market And also recap a good week on the show for this past week look back at results there in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast beginning this week NBA gonna be covered on the show while Tom Vecchio swinging by most Wednesdays to break down his read on the NBA get some Player prop discussion get some spreads get some totals tomorrow branding a doula coming on for a little too far We're gonna talk some NBA at Brandon as well, but also talk about the PGA the 70 open is coming up this week So golf is back NBA is back and still three weekly NFL shows the first look We'll have the full preview on Thursday player prop show on Friday So a lot of good stuff still daily shows here for covering the spread as we get into the NFL postseason with more NBA and more Pga and the way along with all of the NFL you've come to a discuss so check that out by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Also, if you're looking for some discussion around the national championship TCU versus Georgia for tonight We did record that last Wednesday with dr. 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Fandal dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal dot com slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.com chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Kansas in Wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or ks gambling help comm in Kansas in Louisiana 1807 7 7 7 0 stop in Maryland md gambling help org in New York 1807 7 8 hope and wire text hope and why and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Now we're gonna start things off here But going through what my numbers are saying about the wild card weekend and we'll go through some futures And that will also tie into one of the bet for this weekend potentially making down the rope We begin the postseason the same way we finished the regular season That is by betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars and I didn't didn't work this past weekend Because I had the Jags minus six but in terms of the money line My model's behind the Jags all season long and we are not stopping right now I want the Jags the money line at plus 104 gets the chargers. I think the Jags Should be favored in this game both of my models actually say That should be the case right now I'm assuming Mike Williams does sit for the charges in this game And I assume the joy bosa winds up playing if I make those assumptions right now I've got the Jags favor by almost four in one model Which seems aggressive and in the other model I have Jacksonville also by four. Okay, so they're both aggressive We are in on the Jags here for this one But I don't disagree and this model's been pretty good on the Jags This year this will be the 11th time my model has shown value on the Jags money line The Jags are nine and one in those previous 10 games and the one loss and it was when they were plus 360 against the cheese and Most the reason that the model is high on the Jags comes down to their passing offense The Jags are in the 79th percentile of early down passing efficiency. That's adjusted for schedule The chargers are 55th and now might not have Mike Williams for this game The chargers are the better team on late downs or late downs success rate is higher adjusted for schedule again But the gap there is not huge Defensively neither team is very good. I kind of think the Jags be able to run the ball here with Travis etn Obviously They did nothing get the Titans in that regard But that's a very different matchup than what you get with the chargers So I think the Jags should be able to run should be able to throw If they're pretty even everywhere except passing offense even before accounting for Mike Williams I'm gonna take the home team, you know, I don't have a huge bump for home field in my model But the Jags read home. I think they're the better passing offense right now They they run a better scheme that does not require heroics from their quarterback on late downs I'm assuming Mike Williams does not play So if Mike Williams does want it being good to go that could shift things more towards the chargers, but again Like a four point error or a five point error on this spread right now So, uh, you know, again, they're both some also assuming is in if he wants it being out that would change things too So the model overall this year has had a good read on this Jags team It likes them in this one as well So I'm gonna take the Jags money line and I'm gonna say one more time But I also should hedge and say at least one more time because you never know the Jags When this game maybe we're talking about them once again in a much tougher matchup coming up in uh The divisional round, but at least for this week. We are back on our Jags once again plus 104 the money line Against the chargers I've got a couple of bets that I like in the Bucks Cowboys game on Monday night Those are the Bucks plus three and the under at 45 and a half and the Bucks plus three You can get a minus 115. So you're paying a bit more there I do like the minus 115 at plus three More than the money line though, especially when I think this game could be lower scoring The two models have this game at 1.62 and 0.23 the Cowboys favorite in both Uh, so it does think the Cowboys should be favored here But the better model is the one that views as being a closer to a field goal So 1.62 points in the model that has tested better so far this year But the other model the one that says the Cowboys should be fair by just 0.23 points has been Very high on Dallas this year. So I was kind of surprised to see Value on the Bucks in this game in that model specifically The Bucks defense though, they're up to sixth in my model's power rankings That's one spot lower than Dallas and Dallas the secondary is banged up So their ranking fifth may actually be a little bit flimsy once we add an injuries later in the week And the Cowboys secondary, you know, that's that's banged up. Um The Dallas offense, they're definitely better. No pushback in that regard. That's definitely the better unit than the Bucks I just don't think that the gap there is big enough to justify the Cowboys being A full field goal favored on the road When you combine what the data say my data is saying, I guess at least uh with the narrative around Dallas right now We're oh, they can't play outdoors. They can't play on grass. I think that's honestly those narratives are pretty dumb I don't want to buy into that here But I think that narrative is probably an indicator that we're going to see this number gets two and a half And you don't want to bet based on vods. That's kind of a vods basis assessment I would say but you can judge where the market will move based on stuff like that anecdotal stuff So I think this number will get two and a half. So i'm showing value at three I expected to get to two and a half So I expect to get some closing line value here and that's good enough for me to take the bucks at plus three Even with that being minus 115 right now As for the under at 45 and a half my totals model for this game has it at 42.63 That's uh, almost three points of value. We do get it under a key number of 44 45 not as big because It's like a 28 to 17 score. So 44 very much the bigger key number to get under but I think that that is enough wiggle room for me to feel good about that I respect both these defenses a lot just mentioned that the the bucks are up to six in my one model the cowboys are fit there The one A couple cases for the over here would be that the pace in this game will be very high We're going to see probably a lot of plays here. I think that's a good thing for the over The bucks do throw it an above average rate on early downs the injuries in Dallas the secondary all those things Do combine to make you at least pause before taking the under here, but neither offense is flawless They're playing outdoors with seven mile per hour wins It's not a perfect setup for offense And that's enough for me to take the under here So I just don't see either offense pumping out a ton of explosive plays here explosive plays are what you need to get over and These two teams don't necessarily bask in that kind of offense so Under 45 and a half you can get that at minus 110 right now. I think that is also the right way to play this game So the three bets I want to lock in right now are the jags money line at plus 104 I got the bucks plus three at minus 115 And under 45 and a half for cowboys versus bucks which you can get at minus 110 if you shop around And I do have one more bet that I might want to add But I think there is another way to bet that team So let's take a look at what the futures market is saying right now over at fangirl sports But we have the chiefs the super bowl favorites They are plus 330 the bills are plus 420 eagles plus 500 49ers plus 550 bangles plus 750 and the cowboys 13 to 1 and the reason I stopped there is because we talked a lot and we've been talking about power rankings on the show where There's a tier of six at the top the tier of six of those six teams chiefs bills eagles 49ers bangles cowboys not in that order It's been those six teams have been the ones that have I think at least the juice to win at all I do still put the cowboys in that group because I think they have that kind of upside and that prescott is a Quarterback who can't go on that kind of tear So despite the fact they are I think six in that tier I do still think they are closer to this tier and the tier below them But the other five are the other five and I feel pretty good about all those If I'm betting the futures markets I pretty much need to stick in that bracket unless I'm getting a massive discount I want to stick with one of these big six teams And one team where we are getting a massive discount I think at least while still being in this bracket is actually on the Cincinnati Bengals at plus 750 Now there is risk here because the Lamar Jackson wants to play in this week They're odds of losing the first round do go up and I still like the Ravens a lot if we give if you give me Lamar Jackson in this game That can be very interesting but Right now if I assume Lamar does not go and I've got kind of a hedge in my model right now to kind of try to account for the fact That Lamar could play their odds he does play But right now I've got the Bengals favorite by 8.3 against the Ravens and the Bengals favorite by 9.0 depending on the model the better model is one that has meant nine points Assuming kind of a hybrid of Tyler Huntley and Lamar Jackson So that means a I could wind up adding Bengals later on like if Lamar doesn't practice Wednesday I'm locking in if I can get six and a half still at that point I take it and if I can get seven I would take it at that point too Because I'd be showing value there if I go full Huntley versus hybrid of Lamar and Huntley So if Lamar Jackson, this is practice Wednesday, I will be betting the Bengals as long as I can still get it at seven or shorter So if Lamar does play there is risk here but This is also kind of a bet about the second round because if the Bengals win in the first round They're probably facing the bills in the road now. We just saw this matchup We at least analyze this matchup prior to the damar hamlin game last week and in that game I had the Bengals money line, you know, they were at home And it was at the time. I think they were minus 104. I believe on the money line for that game. So, you know It was a situation where We were getting some leniency in betting the Bengals But to me what that says that my model thinks the Bengals are closer to the bills than the market does And I think that's important when analyzing the futures market and looking at that potential second round matchup So I know my numbers will probably like the Bengals in that matchup. Maybe not straight up with the game being in Buffalo I think Buffalo would be favored there. They are first in one of my power rankings But I think that I will like them relative to the market in that game and I can get more upside By potentially taking a plus out of 50 here and we've already seen the Bengals beat the cheese ones They beat them in in uh, Kansas City last year in the Asia championship games. So Those are all pluses for them as we look at their path towards the Super Bowl This offense, they changed their scheme back in week five We talked about a couple of times here on the show and in week five they struggled week 18 They struggled as well both those games against the same Ravens defense, but I still feel like this is a a An offense we are underrating right now with the way they're playing A lot of that sample after they changed their offense came with no jamar chase T Higgins this couple games in there didn't play largely in a couple games in that span as well. So The Bengals plus 750 the cheese plus 330 the bills Plus 420 the Bengals had the longest odds of any of the big six who will play a home game in the first round I think they're better than that So if I'm looking at the futures market right now The Bengals to win the Super Bowl at plus 750 Is the one that catches my attention the most So it's enough to the point where I'm going to make sure I have a Super Bowl future Before kickoff on Sunday on the Bengals That may lengthen if Lamar comes back. So I think that the the Bengals minus six and a half is correlated with this If you get a read that Lamar will now play I'd lock in both immediately to get them before they move even more Towards the Bengals If Lamar may play I'd hold off on betting the Bengals The Super Bowl future until we closer to kick off for that game because we'll probably see the spread tighten at that point Which would obviously translate to Super Bowl odds too. So Keep an eye on the Ravens injury report on Wednesday if Lamar Jackson does wind up practicing then hold off or Yeah, if Lamar winds up practicing hold off if he doesn't practice I'd leave both for the Super Bowl future for the Bengals at plus 750 and on the spread at minus six half You can get there. I just think overall this Bengals team is really good. I think they're undervalued right now I think this offense. It has super over capability. So I'm going to be on the Bengals some way Both this week in the postseason was good to cash that ASE North ticket as well for them So Bengals have been a good team to us And I think that they could continue to be a good team to us as we get further on into the post season So that's where we're at for right now again locking the Bengals plus on 50 at some point this week and The Bengals spread against the Ravens if we get no Lamar practice on wednesday Other stuff jags moneyline plus 104 the bucks plus three minus one 15 and the under 45 and a half for bucks cowboys at minus one ten Now i'm hoping we can carry over what went down last week on the show To this week. We're going to recap of last week right now again back If you want to check out for this part back once again tomorrow talk some pga and mba brandon gandula and mba on wednesday as well And the full nfo preview is on thursday, but last week our best week of the show yet We had ryan ryan williams on the show on thursday and ryan swept the board you can find him on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w the baby narrative obviously in play for handicappers as well So, uh, obviously ryan's ryan's son is helping us out here getting good mojo on the show ryan went five and out it is recommendations on thursday's show I was two and one and the lone loss between the two of us was the one where we went head to head ryan had uh, the titans plus six I had the jags minus six and the jags won that game by four So ryan won that one. I got the loss other ones for ryan were the bangles and minus seven He had the broncos minus two and a half I had the dolphins moneyline to even money that was before mike white got ruled out Then we both had the lions on sunday plus four and a half for me ryan said he wanted to wait until after the seahawks game to see if that market would shift more towards the packers And I think it did I think I saw five and a half at one point So we did see more movement towards the packers there I took it a four and a half because my thought process was The seahawks lose this game it could also short So I thought it was being properly accounted for in the market And I wanted to lock it in in case the seahawks did wind up losing The points didn't matter because the lions won that game outright ryan had under 49 and a half in that same game that one hit easily. I think there was 36 total points in that game so honestly Heck of a way for ryan to go out in the regular season Great job by him all year and I feel good about how my numbers did How they tested and it was good to get some good results with them as well So overall I've been down this year. It's annoying, but The numbers back testing well, it's good when you can finally translate that into good results So that felt good for sure But ryan is on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w we'll talk to him on thursday to get his read on these wild card games Our guest on the prop show this week was tom vecchio check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom Tom at both of his touchdown recommendations for this week Those were christian kerke plus 210 and staphon digs at plus 115 digs a huge touchdown Kirk he also had uh over 59 and a half receiving yards in that game that on saturday night The misses for tom where kenny picket over 195 and a half passing yards picket at 195 Off by a half yard. That's tough. Uh, but other one was judas miss schuster over 54 and a half receiving yards He went under that one so three and two for tom the two of the hits were plus 210 and plus 115 so Really just an awesome week for the podcast It was our best week yet and i'm happy for it to go out that way for the regular season, but again Feeling pretty good about the post season as well We'll have uh all of our regular content here on the show throughout the throughout the weeks to get you set for the post season action Hopefully that can propel us towards a good post season to finish things out That is all that we have here for today that was mentioned big week this week PGA nba with brandy caduola tomorrow nba with tom becky a wednesday Ryan williams back thursday to talk nfl and then our prop show Coming up on friday to get all those as they are posted make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast and also check us out over on the fandall youtube page If you want to watch a video version there as well if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fandall podcast network at fandall podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you as you place your bets for the wild car round may the clv be in your favor We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some pga and nba This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network