 A big applause for Hed Leonhardt. Thank you. All right, thanks very much. Great pleasure to be back here. This is very interesting, you know, the conversation we've had yesterday at this event and today it's really interesting to see what is happening around us. I live in Switzerland. I used to live in America. In Switzerland, our primary motivation for life is to avoid all risk. It's very interesting the philosophy of America is to take all risks. I'm not sure that one is better than the other, but it would be nice to have a mix. And you know, I've been doing the futurist thing now for 12 years. I used to be a musician and producer in digital music business as well. And 12 years I've done over 1,600 sessions speaking to people doing workshops, doing CEO talks. And one thing that came out yesterday after the conversation we had last night is that it's very interesting to see how people and companies really change and you know how that happens. And this is also true in my own life, of course. It happens with two things, right? One of them is pain, and the other one is love. So when people feel pain, then they're forced to do something because they no longer can negate. They can no longer say it's not happening. Music business, publishing business, newspaper, television, now transportation, education, politics, energy. So pain is part of it. The other one is falling in love with an idea and seeing what happens on the other end. You know, just because you have pain it doesn't mean you're going to come out the other end. It's very hard to live off pain and make it a positive force, right? You have to also have the other side. So I'm hoping today in my conversation that I have with you, we can discover some of the pain which is needed but also find something that we can see on the other end of this. Because one thing that's happening in digital transformation is that many things that used to work just fine have stopped working. And on a very large scale, that includes, for example, capitalism, the concept of profit and growth, which I can't talk about today, I think about two hours to get into this. Briefly, what a futureless does. It's really quite simple what I do. I take very complex scenarios and I try to bring it down to a bottom line, a point that I try to discover from my clients. And you have to have a certain talent for this but it's really something that pretty much anyone can do, especially, for example, kids, who are very good at storytelling. And when I think about digital transformation, how we change is kind of like this short clip here. Many of us are going from being one thing to being another thing. You've seen the movie Transformers. It's a little bit like this. It's very scary. If you're a car company and you're selling cars, fancy cars to fancy people, in the future, you're going to sell self-driving cars to people who just call them on an app. I mean, it's quite certain. In many countries already happening. This whole switch from the car as a status symbol to the car as transportation. I mean, if you're the CEO of Porsche or Mercedes, you don't really like this idea. It's completely different. This is transformation. And guess what? This is happening to every single business, pretty much to every single business, that all of a sudden we are forced to transform not to just change. I mean, it would be hard enough to change but to transform. I transformed three times in my life the first time when I was a student of theology and religion. Then afterwards I became a rock musician and then I became an internet entrepreneur and then I became a futurist. I'm ready for the next big transformation. I'll let you know what that is when it happens. But anyway, what is happening now is that this transformation is happening absolutely everywhere. Look, for example, at banking. This company called Transferwise will change the way that you send money you can save 90% of the transaction costs sending international money transfers. So I'm no longer sending my money to my son in California with credit suites, which is 30 euros or so transaction charge. I pay a dollar to these people. Talk about disruption. I mean, all the stuff that's happening with newspaper advertising, if you're in the news business you know exactly what I'm talking about. It's the valley of death, right? Kindle, e-box. Doctors using tablets and mobile devices. I mean, this disruption is happening everywhere. This transformation. Now, it's not enough to just celebrate disruption, right? If this was a TED talk, we would say, you know, this is fantastic because we all can make a lot of money disrupting ourselves. And we invent some sort of technology that will monetize the disruption, whatever. But it's not enough to just say the disruption is here. We have to figure out how do we transform and how do we change, right? Bill Gates said this 10 years ago, banking is essential, banks are not. Well, some of you are in the banking business. I'm not sure I would agree if I would say music is essential, record labels are not. Well, you could kind of say that, right? But of course you do need middlemen. I mean, if you look at what's happening in banking, it's peer-to-peer banking. There's over 300 banks where people fund each other, not just Kickstarter, those kind of things, right? Mind-boggling. But still, all of those 300 are less than 1% of total financing volume that you need to build houses and stuff. It's not replacing it. Or what's happening on mobile devices. So this kind of digital Darwinism that was mentioned earlier, right? Digital Darwinism, it basically means things are changing faster than you have time to react. So it's fueled by hyper-efficiency. For example, in banking, their studies show that up to 35% of the North American banking market will be taken away by new players and by retailers. In Africa, 55% of all money transactions are done through M-Pesa, which is a mobile money system, without banks. At least on the front end. Starbucks, biggest competition to banks. So you have one choice. You know, when you're looking at your business, you can sit back and you can say, we're doing this and then when it's time to react, I'll leave or do something. But it's really about disrupting or being disrupted. And that is Darwinism, basically. When you're looking at your own business and you're feeling that somebody else is doing this to you and basically cutting you out because of technology. Look at the record label. This is going to happen to every single kind of media or communications business in the future. I mean, will people get their music today? Well, a similar answer, they get it on YouTube, right? It's in the cloud. It's just there. It's just a click of a button. The question you have to ask yourself, this will be the first question of the day, are you digitally contestable? Can somebody take your business and invent some cool software together with a bunch of smart people, like Uber, Airbnb, Dropbox, same thing, right? Can somebody take that concept of software plus people and basically disrupt you? If the answer is yes, you have to be careful because clearly that is going to happen. Look what happened, for example, to the movie business. We used to rent a DVD or buy one for 25 euros. Now Netflix gives it to us for what? 0.0.0 euros per year. It's just there. It's like air. And look what's happening here to the business. I mean, if in the business of selling movies, DVDs are toast, right? Are you in trouble? This was 75% of their money. The same goes for bookkeepers, for example. This software called Zero, which I use myself from New Zealand, XERO, is shooting to replace 30 million bookkeepers because essentially automating the process of bookkeeping. So this is basically, if you are digitally contestable, then you have to face the future. And that leads me to the next point, which hardly is in the military called VUCA. Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. It's kind of interesting, especially in the context of Brazil and the World Cup, right? Brazil is this kind of country. And that's why we enjoy it because it's kind of, you know, things are moving. But this is tough. This is our future. We're living in the future because 6 billion people connected to the Internet are actually doing this and creating this chaos of conversations. Now the question is, can we turn this around in our businesses? Can we create a second VUCA? Velocity, unorthodoxy, collaboration, and what has been in a good California word, awesomeness. There's no good word for this in English or in German, even. I don't know. Or in Dutch, for that matter. But that's what we need to do. Ask yourself a question. Is your company awesome? Are you awesome? I mean, this is a stupid question, of course. You want to be awesome. You want to transform to be awesome. So the question is, can you flip the VUCA? This is a very important question. There's not enough to say, well, we're living in uncertainty, and so we are. But what is your response? Is your business fast? Is it unorthodox? Does it collaborate? Because also we're facing exponential challenges. I mean, Sundar mentioned earlier, we're living in an exponential world. Moore's law times 1,000 at Metcalfe's law, and God knows what kind of laws. We're here, right? We're in this curve, we're here. We're at the take-off point. You think the world is crazy now, just give it three years. We're going to discuss things that sound like science fiction. For example, the latest edition of Google's self-driving car. Challenges, opportunities. So in this curve, this exponential curve, we're seeing more stuff every single day than we've seen the last 10 years. Here's a quick example. It's a Skype software update that's coming very soon from Microsoft that translates your language into 34 other languages. Imagine being able to speak in German and have your message conveyed grammatically and semantically correct in English. That future is here. With a Skype translator, it all starts just as with any other Skype call. You just call someone, but now the difference is the person you're calling doesn't have to speak your language. But I wanted to talk to you about the email that I sent you yesterday. Brauchste noch irgendwelche Änderungen? Do you need any changes? There was one thing. Be real. This was demonstrated last week at a conference at Microsoft. It's coming to all Skype users by the end of the year, allegedly. Now, you think this is science fiction. Sounds like science fiction. These things are happening now. So if you think those things are science fiction about artificial intelligence and business processes, automated marketing, real-time bidding, all that stuff that you know about, it's not science fiction. Technology is moving much quicker. So the question really is, if you're on a wait-and-see attitude, that means you're saying, please kill me. Because you're basically saying, okay, I'll wait and see, please make me irrelevant. That is really what you're saying. So the question is, how is your company, how are you going to be yourself to come like oxygen, indispensable? That's, for example, in the music business, complete failure on this. They've done everything to make themselves dispensable. This is not just the record labels, but the publishers, the copyright societies. There are obstacles. And now they're trying to go backwards and figure out what is their purpose of life. It's about the audience and the creator. That's what it is. So anyway, think about that for a second. How are you going to be oxygen like this? So here's a question I have for you. Does this technology mean that humans are less relevant? Take this technology here called the scanner do. This technology is going out rolling out now. It's been premiered a little while ago. What it does, it allows people to take an app and analyze diseases that you have using a scanner and any sort of mobile connection. For example, looking at your kid's skin and figuring out what it is and getting a real time feedback from a virtual doctor or, of course, a database. So how do you feel about this kind of things when you're this guy? Any doctors in the room? How do you feel about this if somebody is able to self-diagnose or self-medicate as we're already doing? It changes your role. Does better technology make humans less important? I don't think so. But it feels threatening. I mean, if you're a taxi driver, you'll hate Uber. We know that. But you also hate driving cars. Because clearly, you're not going to be involved in driving it. So it creates pressure for us to change. So someone inside of your organization needs to think and act like a startup. Because this is what they do. They use 10 times the innovators, one tenth of the cost, and 100 times as fast and as powerful. That's why the top 10 private companies in the world are all these companies, Dropbox, Uber, Airbnb and so on. They're all the top 10 companies worth billions of dollars. More than KLM. Dropbox is worth twice of KLM. Market value. So maybe you could be that person inside of the organization to start the rethink. The most important part is that we have to start thinking in a hybrid kind of way. We have to think like we're the old guys, because we are the old guys in many ways. We have an existing business. And we have to think like the new guys. We have to think with the diesel or gas fuel, and we have to think with electric fuel. We have to think both. We have to be hybrid. Because you know the future isn't the gas pump, right? You know that. The future, of course, isn't going to be the gas pump. But you have the gas pump now. So you have the forces of dualized, right? That's really what's happening with hybrid cars. And we have to be the same. We have to act hybrid. So let me introduce you to an important concept, which this is the pain part, by the way, just in case you haven't noticed. The value of death. We have technology now disrupting pretty much every business. From media to mining to chemistry to markets to financial transactions and banks and so on. And technology is really mind-boggling, making it much more efficient. I mean TripAdvisor is great for consumers, not so great for restaurants when they're dealing with all this pressure, right? And we'll have 100 things like this. Online education. And on the other side, we have the future business, which is going to be fantastic considering we will have roughly 10 billion consumers in parentheses, 6 billion people on the internet and every single person with a mobile device. I mean, you can imagine that this is going to be a great place for business. But here's the question. How do you get from one to the other? This will include for many of us to cross the valley of death. And if you've ever been in California in the desert, you know what I'm talking about here. This is not something you do. You don't go to burning man with the backpack, right? I mean, this is a serious undertaking. So what you need to do here is either take some water, which means that the organization has to be prepared to use water and to get fuel on the way or build a bridge. Because, you know, clearly it would be nice if you could shortcut the valley of death. And the third thing is you have to know there's something on the other end. There's a purpose. Those three things. So if you're in the publishing business, you know you're on this slide down here, for example, like you know it's basically shit has hit in the fan, right? You're not going to sell those ads. You're not going to have monopoly. You're not going to be like a public television broadcaster funded by Texas. You know what's coming on the other end. But how do you get through that? You have to build a bridge. Talking about this, you know, the New York Times paywall was discussed five years ago, and I said from the beginning that having a paywall and newspaper is a very bad idea. The New York Times did this for a long time and this came out in a secret report, allegedly secret. Two weeks ago, you may have seen this, right? This is the homepage traffic of the New York Times dot com. You see how it has dropped when they put the paywall in? You see how it has dropped basically towards zero? That is the result of the paywall. Now the question is, when you're looking at the future, what kind of assumptions do you have? This is crucial. What are your beliefs? This is the report that you can download now pretty much anywhere on the internet. It's no longer confidential, obviously. But it makes good reading. In this entire report, the report software appears on page 63 in the report of the leading newspaper of the world. This is allegedly the report internally about how to change this problem, right? So think about that for a second. Assume less, discover more. The more we assume about our future, the less we're going to discover. Because the way we tend to be, because humans are of that linear nature, we want to extend what we have and just make it a little bit better. Of course, that's not going to work because the future is being reinvented. So we have to assume less and discover more. For example, this slide shows you how little people actually do this. You can actually start changing this tomorrow. This is a slide from GigaOm showing that 70% of people don't have time to do creative thinking at work. It means it's a suicide mission. You don't have time to think. You don't have the ability to focus. I mean, what are we doing there? Clearly, that's like saying you want to think out of the box when you're in the box and put people in the box to think outside of the box. Mobile, we've talked briefly about this. What's happened with exponentiality? You know that the future is mobile. And yet today, if I look at most companies on the web, their site isn't mobile. They aren't mobile optimized. We're moving to a mobile future in a very dramatic way with things like this, you know, Bluetooth connectivity and on-location services. All these things are happening in mind-boggling pace. Wearable computing. Imagine this. Replacing smartphones. This is the Google Android Wear that shows you updated information on your wristwatch. Clearly, we have to ask a question here. For example, Oculus Rift, Google Glass. The question is not how or does it work? The question is why? Why? Can we ask that question? Is that allowed to ask that question? I mean, Google's verdict by the European Supreme Court that they have to actually give us the right to be forgotten is the same question. Yes, we can always be tracked. Yes, we can. Technology exists, but why? So, ask yourself that question when you think about Google Glass. Not just because it's there. I mean, the extensions of man that we're seeing around us are amazing and they're truly addictive. I mean, imagine you're wearing one of those wristwatches and you can always check your stock market. You can respond to a Facebook. You can make a photo. You can photograph your food. You can pick the right person to marry what they just hit the button here. I mean, outsourced brains, right? I mean, this is really great for surveillance, right? Because the more our brains are outsourced, the more we can be tracked. So, ask that question. Intelligent everything. This is going to be mind-boggling in terms of business intelligence, right? This is a great resource. Intelligent software, intelligent tracking, intelligent agents, intelligent people occasionally, and of course, companies like Narrative Science. Have you seen this company? They're writing articles for Forbes magazine using a robot. It's a robot journalist. And you wouldn't tell the difference. It's not sort of soft articles, but you know, financial news and those kind of things, right? This is widely used already. It's a software that writes. There's a software that writes songs as well, by the way, for motion pictures. Talk about change. I don't know where you can tell the difference. But in many ways, you could say machines. Yes, they can. This was mentioned earlier. Software is eating the world. Everything is becoming software. So, in a software business, you know, this is something really important to remember. Business intelligence goes into warp drive. I mean, if you're not actually thinking about this thing called big data and how you use data and how you become more intelligent, you see companies that work with 10 people who do the work of companies that have 5,000 people using technology. And that is a major disruptor. So, if you're not using your data in such a way, then, of course, it's going to be a tough future for you. Here's a short clip from a thing from SAP where he shows their technology called, I think it's called Jam. I've been using SAP Jam. Been using what? Check this out. This is my work pattern. Here is where I bring together everything I need. People, content, and critical business data so I can solve problems. I started by bringing in my vendors to see if... Well, you've seen this stuff, but you know, basically what's happening here, this is already there today. But think about this 5 years in the future. Everything you do, every worker, every contribution, every contact, every connection is quantified in some way. Can be quantified. Which creates intelligent businesses, hyper-intelligent businesses, using this idea of big data. So you can do things like sell insurance, this is already happening in America. If your car is tracked, they will actually track your car and, of course, your lifestyle, for example, and they will give you a different rate for your insurance based on your actual behavior. So if you have your car tracked, you can save 90% of insurance cost. Now, this is a crazy concept, of course, in a way. But all Americans like this, you know, of course, it's financial driven. It's a huge opportunity. So big data is great and we have to use it, but big machine and big brother and there should be a difference. So keep that in mind when you're dealing with data and intelligence about your company, it's great to use this but if it turns into a surveillance mechanism, it's not. This is really a big, very big difference. This is the great challenge for technology. I have to skip some of this because I want to get to the summary. Very important quote by Kevin Kelly, the founder of, original founder of Wired Magazine who says machines are for answers. Humans are for questions. And that is our future as humans, is to ask the right questions. Not to provide answers based on data because machines will do that. There are estimates saying that we're going to lose between 14-50% of jobs based on repetitive work, for example. Data inputting, file clerks, checkout clerks. So I think that's an important summary. So I want to get to the end and actually we're going to discuss some of the other stuff later. So, most importantly, designing to disrupt yourself and others, I think it also means to see if you can build that bridge to your own future. And if you haven't started building that bridge towards that new future, that's a mission you should start today. And that's based on four sides because you know this is going to happen. If you're in a business where you can be digitally contestable, you will go through the valley. You will have to come out the other end. So bridge building is essential. So a quick summary. Number one, we're talking about transformation here. We're not talking about change. The question is, who are you going to be in five years? Never mind 10 years, that's far away. Who are you going to be in five years? Assume less. Discover more. See if you can get rid of those assumptions. Like when I worked in the music business, one of the key assumptions was to get free music. That's a bad thing. What a stupid assumption. If you want that, you can have that. That's not a way to assume of the business of your future. Netflix has 50 million paying subscribers. So it's not about that. Turn the VUCA. Velocity, speed, unorthodoxy, new thinking, collaboration, awesomeness. Be aware of this. Our lives and our technology is exponential. The stuff you're seeing today sounds like science fiction. It will be much, much, much more science fiction in five years. It's not going to go backwards. Hybrid approach. You want to be able to think of two things at the same time. The current business and the future business. You can't actually swap one against the other unless you're a startup. If you're a startup, you're in the future. That's the great thing about being a startup. You don't have to, you don't have the balance, right? But if you're not a startup, you have to do both. Business intelligence. This is going to be the number one weapon against becoming dismissed by your customers. Using really truly intelligent business. Machines for answers, humans for questions. Going back to the right brain, that's our future. Going back to the part where we can be creative. Lastly, the most important point is the oxygen. That is a key question that you have to ask. Is your company like oxygen? Can it be dismissed because somebody else has provided that oxygen? If not, then you have to plan for that. I want to thank you very much for listening. I think we'll take some short questions now. I'm almost in time here. If you want to download my presentation, it's going to be out this afternoon on my website, futurewithgird.com. Thanks very much for listening. So let's have some questions. Thank you. Thank you.