 The wrong choice will consume Nigeria, says former president Olu Shagun, and Dariyeh reportedly may run for Senate after prison release. This is Plus Politics. I'm Mary Anacom. Ahead of the 2023 general elections, former president Olu Shagun, has urged Nigerians to make the right choice by electing credible leaders at all levels, warning that making the wrong choice in the election may consume the nation. The ex-president said the country cannot afford to make the same mistake of choosing bad people at the helm of affairs, considering the myrides of challenges. He bemoaned the current state of the nation, calling for more prayers, as Africa's most populous nation goes to the poll in February of next year. Joining us to discuss this is Deneke Alobashi, the program's director and managing editor at Data Fight, and of course joining us is Shagun Shobiton, a public affairs analyst. Thank you so much, lady and gentlemen for joining us. Thanks for having me. Okay. Shagun, I'll start to see you. Of course, you work with civil society, and this is a conversation about the civic space in Nigeria and how we can continue to have these conversations to get more people interested in what's happening ahead of the elections. But then I want to start by asking a simple question. With all of the movements that we're seeing, whether it be on social media, whether it be in small spaces, we even see people gathering in different parts of the country, can we say that that can amount to how alert we are and how prepared we are for the elections next year? Oh, absolutely. I think if either of us ever be mentioned that the consciousness and the, you know, the conscience of the country has been put and has been raised, this is the moment. I think and I think that's primarily because of, you know, the path that has brought us here. Anybody that is in Nigeria will testify to how difficult things are, regardless of whatever segment of society you want to talk about, a sector of the economy that you want to talk about. So if it's security, I don't know if it would be correct to say it's never in this bad, but it's terrible right now, you know. The terrorists are practically back in the federal capital. The last time this happened was 2013, almost 10 years ago, you know. If you're talking about the economy, you know, it's never in this bad. The Naira exchange was as low as 730 Naira to the dollar just a week ago. If you want to talk about the fuel and, you know, energy sector, the grid collapses with ease very regularly these days. You know, diesel has almost got to 1,000 per litre very recently, you know. So everything is bad and Nigerians are suffering, Nigerians are running. And I think that thanks to INEC, you know, and we must say this, Nigerians now know, given the experience with the last three elections, that their votes will count and that rigging has become more difficult. And, you know, so when you combine that with all of the things that have been happening, the consciousness has just increased and Nigerians have never been this eager for an election and for speaking their voice and, you know, learning their voice to in the public space. So I think this is going to be very, very interesting times because Nigerians are on high alert. Let me talk about the INEC. The INEC, you obviously work with the data gathering company or group. It's a research group. Now, many people had complained during the continuous voter registration that there was not enough time for them to get their PVCs, hence they pushed for an extension. And then, of course, I did speak with the INEC, one of the commissioners on voter education still say that INEC noticed that once they had that extension, there was a lax. People did not necessarily feel the need to rush anymore. And then just at the close of, you know, that exercise, we also saw another rush. So again, it makes me really question how serious we are about 2023. Thank you very much for that question. And the reality is that, although there appears to be increased interest in getting voter registration, the three of cycle elections that have happened, Anambra, Osho and Ikith, have told us that there is no correlation between increased PVC collection and voter participation. In Osho's elections, this year's voter turnout is the lowest in all elections that they have held since Nigeria returned to democracy. Same thing for Anambra, same thing for Ikith. So it's important to begin to ask the questions, will these interests that we're seeing in PVC collection translate voter turnout? Because if it doesn't translate to voter turnout, we are right back to square one. Nothing has happened except that people now have identity cards. So it's something to interrogate why there is an increase in PVC collection and that has not yet turned out a higher voter turnout. It's incredible because I remember also that there was a group that was advocating that INEC deceased from throwing away certain PVCs, which, I mean, that's also something we need to probe. But I always like to use the Lagos state local government elections as a litmus test or as a point of reference, rather. We saw Lagosians complaining, we hear people complain every day. People call and say, oh, the roads are bad. Government is not doing anything. The drainages are blocked. People are building over this and that. But when it came down to voting for people who actually are the closest government to us, nobody showed up. I mean, literally, nobody showed up. So again, it goes back to the point that we're making. So what do we have to do? This is a conversation that is probing and asking for solutions. What must we do to get the civic space to participate actively and not just grumble or complain? All right. That's addressed to me just so I don't interrupt. Yes, yes. Okay, so here's the thing. I think that the civic space, specifically here talking about media, talking about civil society organization, there's a lot of energy and a lot of paining around getting cases. I think that now we see that it's not sufficient. It's not enough just to encourage and we need to bridge that gap. Now I broke civic actors into two because there are those of us who are actively involved, who are in the face of it. We know all the data, we know all the number. Then there are the citizens who are supposed to be consuming this data that we produce, participating in these campaigns that we're starting. And I think that if we can rethink our strategies in terms of engagement with people, in terms of engagement with citizens, in terms of how we present those conversations, in terms of how we help them to understand what is critical, perhaps we can still turn the tide because clearly there is some disconnect between all of the campaigning and all of the advocacy that is happening right now and actual actions. We need to find what that missing ingredient is. There have been conversations that this is important voter education, literally telling people this is why you must vote. This is how to vote. This is where to do the vote. These are the security issues that may happen and this is how to protect yourself. These are all theories that I think is worth pursuing for civic space actors if we're actually going to see this favor, especially on social media. We're going to see this energy translating to something tangible in 2023. Incredible. Back to you, Shegong. Again, talking about choices. The former president of the Shegong Basin, who's one that's very, very outspoken. No matter what we say, no matter what we do, he will keep speaking if it's not writing an open letter. He's putting out one thing or the other. But this is an interesting point he's making. He's saying that if we make the wrong choice, the country might be consumed. I don't know how much of the news you've followed today, but Sierra Leoneans have been protesting the high cost of leaving, how bad the economy is, and as we speak, one person has been shot dead. It became volatile. I'm sure it reminds you of something that you must have experienced in 2020. But he's saying that if we make the wrong choice, so again, the case of a right choice here is subjective to whoever is listening or whoever is watching. Now, how have political parties, what role have political parties played in making sure that the people they want to vote for them are properly educated? That it's not just enough to hold a PVC, just like Adeneke has said, but what you can do with that PVC and how it can impact your life after the elections? Well, first of all, to speak to what the former president said, I am firmly in that corner, in that box with him. I believe that we are facing an existential threat as a country and that these elections hold very well the marker and a deciding point in our future and our destiny. And the reasons are not perfect, it's all around you. For example, whether we like it or not, whether we want to admit it or not, Nigeria is pretty much bankrupt. We make less money than our loan obligations are right now, revenue to debt as a fraction of debt service obligations. So that's bad, almost as bad as it can get. And if you continue down that trajectory, then it will get to a point when the currency is going to be completely useless. It will get to a point when you won't have food conditions. People might think these things are far-fetched, but they happen pretty quickly when they happen. Is it really about that? I mean, how much do we buy bread today? Exactly, the price of bread has doubled in the last six months, doubled in six months. That's 100% in six months. So if you want to calculate that off the cuff, that's 200% inflation year on year. It's terrible. So I sit in that corner and agree with the former president, but to address your question about the role of the political parties and what they're doing with regards to trying to educate their obliques, if you like, about the importance of your vote and all that, it's unfortunate that to be honest, we do not have political parties in Nigeria. That's just the unfortunate truth. We have contraptions that people have put together to help them gain access to the Commonwealth, and that's it. Whether you talk about the PDP or the APC or any of the others, including the likes of the Labour Party, the histories right there in front of us to tell us the antecedents of all of these guys. So political parties, ordinarily, are almost in themselves like civil society organizations if they're operating properly. So they would have a voter education, meaning they would have a public engagement department, media campaign department, and all of those things. These political parties have nothing like that. They wait for the coming elections, and then they start their propaganda war, and that's all it is about. When it's time to influence the voters, instead of influencing their minds, they buy their votes, and that's the extent. So you're going to see some campaigns, you're going to see some things on TV or radio that will look as if it's voter education, encouraging people to come out and vote, it's all about this election. It's not about improving the civic space. It's not about expanding participation. It's just about how they will gain access to the commonwealth from 2023. So it's unfortunate which then leaves that job, that onerous job in the hands of civil society and the media, because government, aside from the political parties, government is the one other stakeholder that should be doing a whole lot in this regard. Where is the national orientation agency? Where are the messages from the national orientation agency today speaking about the importance of the whole time? We'll have to do a whole show for the NOA. How your votes count? We'll probably have to do a whole show on that question about where the NOA is. I mean, a whole show. I mean, it's really terrible. So there's a huge gaping space, a huge gaping hole and a vacuum out there with regards to encouraging people to come out and participate in the process just like Adene Kess said, so that you can have a conversion of... I mean, for goodness sake, we have almost 100 million PBCs collected. So if you had a 50% turnout, then you'll be talking of 50 million Nigerians deciding who the next president will be and just by the date of statistics alone, you will get a better decision. But the last election, the turnout was about 28%. Was it 28 or 33? She's the data person, so she will tell us. You know, it was terrible. So there's a lot to be done and sadly the political parties are not doing much if anything at all about it. Let me toss back to you, Adene Kess. We have political parties, again, talking about choice here. Half the time, the political parties throw up people that, you know, might not necessarily fit the bill for the rest of us. But again, that can also be somewhat said that we don't join political parties because we think politics is a dirty game. So whoever they present to us is who we have to pick with. So we have a choice between a rock and a hard place and half the time we choose the lesser evil. So again, back to making choices. How can we, as journalists, as civil society, encourage more political participation, not just at the polls before, after and even during the elections? Thank you very much for that question. And in fact, I was hoping that I would get the opportunity and attend the conversation towards this direction. While it is obvious to anyone with eyes, with ears, who lives in Nigeria that 2023 is literally make it or break it, I feel like we need to couch the language of our campaign and begin to look beyond 2023. I feel like we may need, without lessening the reality of what's going on in Nigeria, we may need to begin to design campaigns that helps people look at the long game because the reality is, given 100% across all political parties, great candidates, our choice in 2023 is not likely to turn things around to 300. I mean, 90 degrees is a high estimation. So that is why our campaign needs to carry a more long-term focused message. To say that, guys, get your PVC, but get involved. Get your PVC, but join a political party. Get a PVC or start a political party if you can afford it. And we need to design campaigns that is not just looking at the activities of 2023 elections, but beginning to query election laws and how it is upheld. There's one reality that makes it challenging for people to join political parties, to start political parties, to be actively political. And that's the money factor, the finance. Who is looking at the financing of political parties and how can we begin to mount campaigns to ensure that beyond 2023 we can actually have a system that checkmates these practices, that creates guardrails that allows for increased access and increased participation. Because I feel, and this is a personal opinion now, I feel that if we don't turn down the favor of, 2023 might be Dukems Day, we may be, that action, that language may be counterproductive, driving fear much more than it will drive participation. And so we need to start playing the long game from now. It's 2023, yes, but it's also 2027. And between 2023 and 2027, there's four years to actively plan how to ensure that there's more participation, how to look at participation at the local government level. I mean, look at the example of Lagos State. You would have thought that people would rush out and say, we will show you that we're going to actually take a decision. There's clearly a gap, and I think that, and this is off the cuff for me, because that's a question that has been raised and we have consistently asked in circles, what do we do? How do we turn this energy, this favor into something that translates into actual civic participation, not just voting, because civic participation is a value chain, and voting is almost at the very end of the value chain. There are several other steps that are critical, big participation to political participation. And I think that we may need to start turning the language of our campaign to 2023, yes, but there's a long game. There's a long game that we almost play. Chopiton, do you think the middle class has failed when it comes to active participation in whether it's the voting process, whether it's the conversation and the politicking? Let's leave social media. We see a lot more young people going at each other's throats on social media, but let's come down to the real thing. The guys who work in these nice companies, the guys who understand how politics works, but would rather take the back seat, has the middle class failed, and that's why we're having to grapple with what's we're grappling. I'm asking this because on election day, you obviously hardly see people like you and I at the polls. We see more of the guys who are at the lowest echelon. You also see more guys at the grassroots coming up for the elections. In fact, those are the guys who know the awards, the appalling units, who is this person or who's running for that. But we, who are supposedly the middle class, have the time don't know this. Why do you think that is? It's really, I think for me it's simple. There are two things. One is that the middle class is a reemerging demographic. It's a demographic sector segment that sort of died off for a while and has only reemerged in the last 10, maybe 15 years. And is still grappling with the basic issues of life, surprisingly. So you might think that maybe it's only the people at the very bottom of the rung of the lager who are fighting existential issues on a day-to-day basis. But I tell you that our middle class guys, generally speaking, just think about it. Think about the conversations that people around you have. Let's assume that the three of us in this conversation, in this call right now, in this conversation right now, are part of middle class. If you really think about it, you find that discussions about rent, discussions about school fees, discussions about how do I finance, maybe a vacation or whatever. There is a continued conversation around the insufficiency of the state at the moment. And I think that's a fundamental issue. So people simply do not have time, at least to them, in their mind, to devote to things that are not, that will not yield immediate results. So, for example, participation in civil society, you know, and I would like to, you know, it would be interesting to compare notes with identity care on our experience because I am also a part of civil society. I sit as chairman of the Board of Civil Society Organization and I know what the kind of battle it is to get my members to become actively engaged in our processes. It's just tough. So what you have is maybe a 10% of your total membership being the ones driving everything. I don't know whether Pareto principle is you, I don't know whether it's the 80s-20 rule or something, but it's there, you know, and that's one. The second thing is that I think that because of that first factor, the quest for next level of self-actualization and what have you, a lot of our middle-class people are compromised. You know, it might sound funny, like they have interests in the game. So from very early on, they make up their mind whether next will be best, whether next will be best feathered and then they just sit there regardless of the impact on larger society, regardless of the impact on the long-term picture, as to where our country will be as a result of the decisions and the choices they're making. So we're feeling woefully in being the voice of logic, the voice of reason. I keep saying amongst my friends, and amongst my, you know, circle of my friends, what happened to evidence-based analysis of issues? What happened to arriving at decisions and positions based on logical reasoning? You know, it's very difficult to find people doing this, even though they're supposed to have the capacity. Majority of people that we're talking about are either MBAs or they have several doctorate degrees. Some are professors, or you find that somehow the interests that we have in keeping our jobs or in ensuring that the contract that we're running with one government or the other continues to stay prevents us from playing the role of leading the conversation in the country. And so for me, to answer your question, has the middle class built? Absolutely. Can they do better? Absolutely. At the end of the day, unfortunately, the large chunk of the work of leading conversation, of leading the national discourse and all of that will rest with the 10%, or maybe 20% who have just decided that no matter what happens, we're going to do what we can. Finally, let me just push this question because of some things that Shagwon has said. Why do people prefer to leave? We see a lot of people leaving Nigeria right now. They prefer to leave rather than, you know, seek ways to... In fact, they tell you that there's nothing they can do. They'd rather leave. But I'm wondering, why do you think... What's at the core of that? Well, we all know we're all suffering. It's not like the suffering, you know, parks at some junction and doesn't go to the others. Why do you think, just as you said, less and less people are interested in civil society or civic duties or whatever. But then we'd rather put money together and to use the street lingo, jakba, as opposed to trying to see what we can do to better the loss of Nigeria. So, I mean, there are several things, but he said something that is critical, self-actualization. That's a force that is driving a lot of people. And increasingly, it looks like that may not happen in... And people are beginning to think, you know what, perhaps we look for this outside. This is not the first time we've had this kind of mass exodus. In fact, periodically in Nigeria, we have this mass exodus where people can just leave. And I feel like in Nigeria's democracy in the 20-plus years since the Fourth Republic, there's been a lot of high-tempo, low-tempo. Oh, it's going to get better. It's not likely to get better. And I think that people are exhausted right now. So I will not be, for lack of a better description, sanctimonious and say, oh yeah, they just don't want to build their country. I think people are exhausted. I think people are working hard. Tomorrow is International Youth Day. And the youth are weary. Trying and knocking at these doors, often back-to-back, and nothing is happening. However, I think that it is still critical while we can force anyone to stay, while we can say, oh, I mean, none of us can even promise survival. It's as bad as, I mean, the nation's capital is literally besieged. And people are afraid to move at night, and people are calculating their movements. So it's not like we can assure people, oh, don't worry, things are going to get better tomorrow. But I do think we can appeal to people's sense of nation, to people's sense of belonging, to say that we can't build this nation. It's not going to happen quickly. It's not going to happen in, you know, months or eight months or seven months. But we can build this nation. I also think that we might be in the place where we now need to have the conversation of, can Nigerians in diaspora vote? Even if you are jackpot into wherever, you can still be involved, and you can still be engaged. Can we begin to interrogate processes that can ensure that even when people do leave to seek daily bread, you know, to describe it that way, they can still participate. But the truth is, people are weary. People are tired. It's bad news upon bad news. And, you know, the fundamental things that people need to survive have literally been taken away from our hands. Food, shelter, and family. People can guarantee that their family members will be safe, and that's just a big challenge. So I think that's really at the core of what's driving people out. But we can find ways to encourage people to still participate, which will force us to answer the question of how do we make sure that Nigerians in diaspora are still engaged in the political sector, are still engaged in the civic space so they can, you know, do what is right? Well, no better way to end that conversation. I want to say thank you, Shegun. Thank you very much. Adeney Care is the director and managing editor for Data Fights, and Shegun Chopra is a public affairs analyst. Thank you so much, lady and gentlemen. These conversations have to be had. Thank you very much. Thank you. All right. Well, thank you all for staying with us. Let's take a quick break. Now, when we get back, we will be discussing Jadariye's release and Hibi's supposed plans to run for senatorial position. Stay with us.