 Okay, very good morning to you. Happy Friday the 14th of May and Gemini speaking sentiment this morning holding up following the positive clothes that we had on Wall Street snapping of course a string of consecutive losses We've seen this week as the markets kind of tussled with this idea about Transantry inflation and bit of a recovery coming through yesterday So the S&P closed up around 1.25 percent the Dow similar margin than as that 100 closed up about point 8% that kind of carried through into the Asia Pacific session that region generally Hire as well find that impetus from the US clothes and looking at the charts this morning Let's just have a quick run through from a technical perspective with some of these US based Index futures first and I'm going to start off with the S&P 500. This is just looking at The price performance really of going back to some of the same pressure that we've had from the beginning of the week So going back to around Tuesday when it all started to really pick up a bit of pace The accelerated set off that we saw mid week and in the reversal and quite powerfully So yesterday from those lower bound levels as you can see this morning Then you're doing to kind of climb a little bit higher through the Asia pack region Perhaps now found a little bit of a flaw for the moment in futures price As we just get to this area here Which we've just broken out above in the European open Which was the Asia pack high range and the high that we saw just before the close on Wall Street Which did see some late-selling pressure yesterday got some short-term trend lines on here for the week That one that really held up nicely and it was back on Tuesday or Wednesday's briefing that Coinciding the pivot with that trend line high was a really nice short opportunity that I know a few people got hold of To ride that move lower on the recovery It's been well respected as to as it on the bounce given the break that we saw in the overnight Asia pack session As well, so quick look elsewhere then Then Nasdaq of course Well before we do let's just have a look at the S&P on a daily because on the daily chart again This is something we were looking at as well a slightly longer term trend line respected from late October of 2020 early March And that was the area really that we're keeping an eye on still fairly firm of the conviction that lowered down You'll get some quite aggressive dip buying and that area 4021 we had highlighted yesterday Close proximity to that before we saw that initiation of the fairly strong rebound that's underway at the moment Any further recovery here on the daily We're training at 41 26 at the moment 41 40 Could be quite interesting it starts to bring in some of those respective loans and hires that we had going back to Thursday last week And Wednesday this week on the recovery As we'll talk about later obviously retail sales will be quite a key metric as to how that plays out Elsewhere before we get into the news headlines the dollar index at the moment We'll probably explain the currency story This is looking at the entirety of the week and obviously you can see the seesaw movement that we've had and predominantly the pickup here Which was on the back of the CPI reading and since that point as you can see we basically consolidated from around 1990 at the top Look on the right-hand side of the chart here to 1960 at the bottom and we're close towards the lower bound of that move at the moment That would be quite key at any break down through those loads Obviously could open up a steeper reversal down to 1934 which was around that range high that we had through the best part of the week before the CPI came out And if that does occur obviously that could give a supporting hand to Further upside and recovering some of the major dollar-based pairs on that point then euro dollar at the moment Just be keeping an eye Around here, which is the R1 the previous Morning's high that we had around this time yesterday 1 21 13 in the futures We'd be an upside error be keeping on if we have any further upside which we're already seeing kind of trend up this morning There's some slight softening in the green back as far as cable is concerned Again, we did say Yesterday on the higher time frame chart it felt like cable was kind of due a bit of a pullback after that aggressive breakout that we had on Monday Following a few different things of course with the Scottish vote not constituting enough Majority for pushing further forward any time soon the referendum call And big conservative performance as well at the local elections We kind of had that breakout we pulled back really nice kind of perfect recovery on the daily chart here To that area you can see that zone came back to 140 and we stabilized since we're training about 50 pips above there at the moment So as far as the day is concerned Again wouldn't get too drawn into the short-term trend line this morning be looking more from a Kind of zoomed out perspective and not seeing too much respect of these levels here So I prefer to look at the outer bound range and on the downside the Area which was the double bottom really to the price activity from yesterday afternoon and evening that coincides with the low That we had on the overnight session on Sunday night coming into Monday of this week It's quite a key area to watch we've got the S1 sitting just below that 140 12 and then that 140 handle on the daily was obviously quite important as well on the upside any price Recovery kind of two near-term areas. I'd keep it on 140 71 in the futures, which was yesterday Overnight low, and then you've got the R1 as well sitting just above at around 140 84 this morning and sterling quick look elsewhere and Let's just have a look at a couple of commodities as far as oil is concerned Yeah, pretty tough few days for oil pretty rapid decline of about five percent I think it's been over the course of the last 48 hours or so Nothing, I think that makes me feel particularly bearish Again, I think prudent to just kind of zoom out the chart a little bit Look at the bigger picture if you look down to where we were trading back just two weeks Good beginning of May we are in a relative lower bound of what is a range for the time being You can see this small centerpiece here, which was the colonial pipeline gap. That's kind of business as usual now As we had known for the last couple of days and as we trade here at the moment just finding perhaps a little bit of short-term resistance on the pullback Up at around the 64 handle 6390, which was those lows You can see tested through Friday last week Monday Tuesday, and then in the overnight session as well So at the moment kind of keeping an eye in oil at around 63 handles 6304 those previous lows in early May and yesterday And there's aforementioned levels on the upside at around 64 handles You've got a bit of a dollar range there to play with at the moment and then gold finally Let's have a look Yeah, so you had a bit of a failed breach of what we were watching with quite a lot of intensity yesterday Which was you know Will we get a breakdown and run lower to reverse the breakout that we had on Thursday and acceleration of gains in gold Friday last week Hasn't materialized though and Since that bounce now we're kind of middle of this kind of range for the time being And so at the moment, I'm not really looking at gold with too much interest at this point Near-term platform if we did get that dollar weakness Be interested to see if we get the type of price action where In the interim period of this kind of more broad range on that Double top that you've got from yesterday afternoon and evening a breakout with a pushback above You've got the R1 sat just above it 34 and a half and then for the pushback up to the top end of the range again up at 42 and a half Could be an interesting play if we do get that dollar move continue to play out In terms of a break at that Dixie range we discussed and if that just helps The gold direction going forward All right, well, let's have a look at a couple of the news stories in play first off starting with this The US CDC has advised that fully vaccinated people do not need to wear masks Outdoors and can avoid wearing them indoors in most places so quite a shift here in what's seen as the traffic light system in the US they basically have a table where it's like what you can can't do and it's those who've been Vaccinated those you haven't and those of you vaccinated can do pretty much everything now in America interesting point though on this particular article is that there are concerns that With rules the same for everyone There's not enough incentive to people to get vaccinated. So obviously vaccination rates are still moving higher in America They've slowed down considerably over the last couple of weeks, but How many more people now is if you think about it if you kind of give people back their freedom well, then probably The likelihood is there's less the likelihood that then they're going to get vaccinated essentially and certainly as we go through What Biden's been trying to do is trying to target certain pockets of society that perhaps a slightly more More according to various different studies and polls a little bit more reticent to take the vaccine You know, this could well further accelerate that trend, which I don't think is a massive thing But perhaps it just decelerates further the ability to hit these targets that we're talking about which was by the Administrations of 70% vaccinated by July 4th Obviously as well whenever you go through a significant shift like this in lockdown loosening like not wearing masks Even though this is for vaccinated people How do my how well do people adhere to the rules and so on and again? How transmissible now will this virus be going further forward? So worth keeping on those numbers and definitely in the UK things of Obviously, you've had PM Johnson pretty busy yesterday. He said health officials are quite anxious About the COVID-19 variant first identified in India and refused to rule out the possibility of localized lockdowns to stem its spread And again kind of already trying to set people's and manage their expectation about the eventual end of lockdown on June 21st And that there could be some flexibility around that date Again, whether it happens on June 21st the week two weeks after I don't necessarily think that's a big headwind for the pound because inevitably It probably will happen however This this particular variant does warrant monitoring and particularly as we'll get more data coming next week We'll be able to make a much better and more definitive idea of Whether or not that June 21st deadline is going to be realistic or not and if not how further Delayed might it be a couple of Context here There's been 1768 sequenced cases of the most concerning strain from India's per the chart here. It's known as the B1 6172 It's now the second most common variant in the UK because remember case rates Relatively speaking are quite low at the moment. It accounts for roughly 15% of the virus sampled Sequenced over the last two weeks, but what's being quite concerning? It's up from just 7% one week earlier Some are concerned that there are signs that it's even more Transmissible than that variant that we had in Kent around New Year when we saw that big breakout start localized in Kent But went nationwide pretty quickly and led to one of the worst situations during the pandemic if you remember Over that post Christmas New Year period This one potentially has seen it even more transmissible than that And obviously as far as the nationwide vaccination rates concerned at the moment We're still just over 50% at the moment So still a fair way to go at this point in time Others though, and I think this is important I've said not to over interpret just a small pocket of data Which why we're putting more emphasis on getting some more information next week before we can really draw definitive conclusions the other thing here is about The demographic and obviously as as we get down I actually got the text yesterday So I try to book my vaccination But the nearest place was like 20 miles away and being being a very recent Londoner having moved out to the suburbs. I don't have a car and so And this is like a village hall somewhere in the middle of the woods So I'm not sure if I can and I have to wait potentially but Looking here These are the case cases are rising again This is of that particular Indian strain and it's circulating but the rise is concentrated among young and obviously the less vaccinated age groups so one thing is from a Pressure on the infrastructure point of view that's probably likely not to reoccur given the fact that Again older people are more subject to Being showing more kind of aggressive symptom reaction to the virus There's also underlying medical conditions that I already have as well other treatments in which they're receiving but obviously it goes some way to show that We're still not quite out of this at the moment And once again, it's the north west of England that seemingly is being quite a hot spot And something to look out for in case there is any localized lockdowns Final thing to mention because other than that it's pretty quiet for the news and then we'll just talk about the data coming out today It's Tesla And I'll bring up the Tesla share price because we were talking about this a little bit yesterday And I was sharing some charts in the community and perhaps the chart tells a bit of the story of Tesla's ride over the last week This goes back to a trend line in play from the summer of last year of which then we broke down through After the share price saw aggressive selling pressure on Monday after Elon's appearance on SNL You know this came as obviously Dodge coin or dogecoin Other crypto was under some pressure after he called it hustle then there was I think it was Tuesday production issues highlighted in China He's done the U-turn on Bitcoin payments Which caused Bitcoin to fall 15% yesterday? That's partially recovered But their share price got hit again their stock price is down about 13 ish percent at the moment, but technically Doesn't look too good until we get lower down for support At 542 and we closed yesterday at 571 So really tough week here and and once again, he was super active on Twitter last night He's kind of like the new the new Trump as far as watching Twitter For sensitivity in an initial asset or product reaction And after he came out did the U-turn on Bitcoin. He's now come out clarified to be clear I strongly believe in crypto But it can't drive a massive increase in fossil use Fossil fuel use especially coal and he's giving the pump to dogecoin again working with doge devs to improve system transaction efficiency Potentially promising and then as always don't panic. He's got a picture there of a car so Once again, he's busy at work. I don't know. I can't help but feel this is all just a bit of a usual PR Stunt, I know there's a lot of talk and articles written about this whole PSG side of things and Obviously Tesla's now in the S&P. It's a phenomenally large company But I'm sure Elon Musk is going to Continue to be super active on the likes of Twitter over the weekend. So any crypto traders I definitely would be mindful of that particularly on the dogecoin side Quick look at the calendar then for today and what have we got in store? So just gonna transition We have the ESP minutes out later on at 12 30 and this morning Not expecting too much of a great deal there I wouldn't anticipate much in a way of a market reaction in European assets really the focal point today is on the US side of things and Retail sales is coming up 130 now US retail sales has gone through these kind of boom busts If you like and very much associated to the timings around the stimulus checks That have been hitting people's bank accounts. So that's showing up in January and obviously the real Blockbuster figure of 9.8% we got last month as far as today is concerned The readings expected to come in at 1% so slightly slower obviously than 9.8% Month-to-month reading we had last last time out. However, the cash deposits In regards to stimulus checks were made in the second half of the month of March So there is some suggestions that might mean there's a bit of a carry through from spending into April and also as well There's been a further reopening this on a state level across America Which gives people more optionality to spend their money in different ways that perhaps they couldn't have done before and so that would be a net-positive potentially for for retail sales. So if anything Perhaps again upside bias to this I definitely wouldn't be looking for the type of seesaw reaction effect that we had on CPI earlier in the week But again, this will be quite a key Release for later in the session. We also get industrial production at 215 University of Michigan preliminary sentiments are the more market-moving of the two that's at three We are expecting it to rise to 90 spot for from 88.3 And That last number at 88.3 for Michigan actually was the highest reading since March 2020 So the highest reading since really the onset of the pandemic and a growing sense At a time of upward momentum in jobs Obviously that hasn't quite materialized as we know in payrolls yet But that incomes will persistently be propelled by federal stimulus spending and a growing share of the population becoming Vaccinated generally making people feel more confident about the future And so we're looking for that to to continue as a trend for the time being and Feds Kaplan non-voter speaks at six o'clock, and then that's it. So I'm gonna leave it there. Let you guys get on with the day Remember that the market watch podcast is coming out peers and I Peers the head of training We're gonna have a conversation get a bit of a deep dive into this inflation transitory argument So check that out and I wish you guys good weekend. All right. Take care