 What's up navigation traders welcome to this week's video update today's Friday, January 10th We're gonna review all the trade alerts all the current positions Just for pro members here before we do let's jump into the community and talk about who got caught being hot This week's goes to our fellow trade hacker. Just joined the community within the last week or so Didn't waste any time jumping in posting trade ideas Answering other members questions just adding great value. So J rod nice work. Keep up the heat. You got caught being hot All right, let's jump over to the alerts and actually before we jump into the alerts. Let's just take a look at The markets starting with with SPX the the weekly expected move the markets gonna close here in about 10 minutes So this is kind of where we're at for for next week Now the I mentioned on a video earlier It's been a long time since we've closed outside the expected move and once again This week we came up yesterday. We tagged it. We opened above it, but now the market is down S&P's down about 12 points on the day. So right back into that expected move So it looks to be another close inside that expected move And so just this continued muted grind higher And so hopefully we get a little more volatility next week, but we will see So going through the alerts had a lot of alerts today actually and so but let's go back and start with Monday and so the first trade on the let's see the sixth Was a closing adjusting trade that we did in four slash GC which is gold So price moved higher. We closed out that untested side closed out to put vertical side of that iron condor and And we're still holding the call side. So if we take a look at gold We've got two different pieces here. We've got the full iron condor as well but let's just first look at just that Just that call vertical side because he prices just outside the rain So we need a little bit more movement down to get back in we've got 46 days. So we've got a lot of time here Whoops, let's go back to that I got a lot of time here and then we've also got the other full iron condor Which is pretty well centered. So we might actually take this off early next week We're getting to a point where we could we could book the profits in that and then we'll keep on that call vertical side And then we may look to add another centered iron condor or probably let price move around a little bit before we do that Hopefully the direction is down and then that will help our our short call vertical, but we'll see what happens So that's gold Let's see next one rolling adjusting trade in Apple So we've got this long put vertical on in Apple and this is Absolutely the wrong stock to pick for the short Delta. Obviously when we put it on it was You know Apple was getting a lot of heat with especially with the trade wars and things like that So it appeared to be a good option for short Delta, but that has certainly not happened But we are continuing to keep this on so we rolled this out to Feb and So let's take a look at Apple You can see it's out of the range again. I mean this this thing just continues to be strong Just continues that march higher. It does have earnings coming up on 128 and So we'll be holding this through earnings But just an FYI earnings is on 28th Next trade opening trade in booking so we put on a new iron duck in booking at that point with 11 days to expiration So let's take a look at booking. It's it's gone higher since we put this on so it's run up the beak a little bit So prices up here. We still have let's see 118. Yeah Oh, yeah, I was trying to get filled on this today to just get out But we're having to pay up quite a bit more than we wanted to book that beak profit or pretty close to at the 170 bucks But I wasn't able to get filled anywhere close So we'll hold it till next week You can see we've got just about a 10% chance of it getting back to that duckhead area back to that max profit area So no need to hold this for another full week We'll go ahead and and book that unless price comes down and give this a bit better probability But at this point, we'll probably just book the beak and move on Next trade opening trade in Google got a new reverse iron duck on in Google now prices come higher since we put this on So it's right in the duckhead. This expires in those Jan 17 options. So that's next Friday Seven days from today so hopefully price can kind of hang out in this area and Potential for a duckhead. We'll see Next trade rolling adjusting trade in natty gas So we rolled one set of our short strangles in that gas from from the feb with 20 days to expiration Out to March with 48 kept the strikes exactly the same This is that inverted strangle that we've just been managing For a few months now. So let's take a look at natty gas And here it is So we've got it's moved up a little bit since we put this on since we did the roll And so we could just use a little bit of upside movement in natty gas One of the alerts later here We did close out our other piece and and booked a profit on that piece of the trade So if price kind of continues to hang around here We will look to add to this again by centering another strangle and just continue to collect more credit And work our way back to profits in natty Next trade opening trade in Tesla. So we did another reverse iron duck in Tesla some good call skew going on Given us the opportunity to put on some of these reverse ducks Tesla made a big move higher was all the way up here into the duckhead and then Reversed and has come right back to pretty close to where we put it on You know, I did there was a comment in the community I just wanted to point out, you know, one of the members I can't remember who it was But you know when price was way up here, you know, they're like, hey, you know If price makes the same amount of movement, we're already going to be at our Our break even so should we close this out and the answer is no, you know We don't we don't trade based on if something might happen You know if the stock moves, you know another one standard deviation if the stock makes a move of X So should we close out before that happens? You just you don't know and that's that's exactly the point I mean price was way up here and then Tesla's down almost a percent today moved all the way back down here If we take a look at a chart, so this is what we're looking at here You know price made this big move up on this day here on this day here this big green bar and then you know was up here and and they were getting a little bit nervous about it Continuing higher But just when you think it's gonna do one thing it does the other so you got to stick to the probabilities stick with the mechanics You know we we put these mechanics in place Because we've found that it's you know the most profitable way to do it over time now. Is it always gonna work? Exactly and max get your max best profit on every single trade. No in fact I mean we saw that on Roku today. We saw that on Shopify today, you know Not every trade is gonna work out but over time the probabilities play out and what you don't want to do is getting caught in that game of Oh on this trade I'm gonna use my gut and I'm gonna I'm gonna think it's gonna do this So I'm gonna manage it differently and and next time I'm going to use my gut and manage differently And then next time I'm gonna be mechanical. You got to stay consistent every time Otherwise you're gonna continue to shoot yourself in the foot and worst of all here's here's here's probably the worst part of doing that is You're gonna go by your gut and you're gonna be right and then you're gonna think I'm a genius, you know, and you may not even say that consciously but subconsciously you're thinking I Can out I can I can out do the probabilities I can beat the probabilities with my gut instincts and the problem is you can't okay? And so it might work a couple times and you might get a little bit cocky and then and then you're gonna get slapped The markets love to slap you if you don't play right, so we just stick with the mechanics stick with the probabilities and You know and and and and be consistent. That's the key thing, you know If you want to you know on these like iron ducks for example If you want to if you want to close these out one day to expiration instead of waiting till expiration day cool I have absolutely no problem with that But just be consistent about it, you know don't one time, you know exit early the next time way Just your your instincts are typically going to lead you the wrong way In trading and so it's it's it's not like other businesses or other other ventures You might might be involved in where certain things work trading. You got to stick to mechanics All right next trade closing adjusting trade in that gas So that's the one I talked about that other piece that other short strangle We booked 30% of max profit on that one and Then rolling adjusting trade in QQQ so we rolled one of our short call verticals from Jan with eight days out to Feb with 43 So if we take a look at the cues and the markets getting ready to close here in about five seconds You may hear a bell in the background So here's here's the cues so we have both of these there's the closing bell We have both of these out in Feb now so we've got We've got this one Which is out of range, so We've now in Feb. We've got we've got some time. We've got 42 days to expiration So we're gonna hold this for now and then the one that we just rolled Is this one here? So we've gone down just tiny bit since we put it on but just well in range Where we want it looking for some more downside to benefit that piece Next trade closing trade in Shopify, so we closed our iron duck in Shopify Booked a beak profit on that trade price ran all the way up had very little chance of getting back So we just booked that beak profit Next trade closing trade in Shopify. So this was our reverse iron duck We closed this one out today ended up taking a loss This one was was hanging out right on the edge of the of the upper break even And excuse me the lower break even this is a reverse duck and so No, I'm yeah, I'm sorry the upper break even because we had no risk to the downside And so on this one price continued higher in Shopify Shopify this thing has been just a beast to the upside Let's take a look here at the chart Now it did end up coming down I did see a post in the community of someone who was patient and and held this one closer to expiration and price Did come back down so they were able to book kind of a break even or small profit We ended up just closing it out it hit our it hit our exit point. So we just we just bailed on it Which is that's mechanically what we what we do So ended up taking a loss on that one Shopify definitely owes us some money So we made dip back into that well next week, but it got us this time. So Shopify we're coming for you Next trade closing adjusting trade in ZW So we closed out the put vertical side of our iron condor in wheat This was the one that had 14 days to expiration. So we've we had two different iron condors in wheat Breached our upper break even a very little value left in that put vertical. So we just closed it out So let's take a look at wheat. So we've got Let's see. This is the one Let's take a look at that call vertical We still have so we need a little bit of downside movement to get back into range here You know if if we don't you know going into expiration week So we've got 14 days left if we get into expiration week and it still hasn't gotten back into our range So where we can close it for a profit. We'll probably just close it regardless Typically don't like to roll these just because you know, it's not providing that short Delta exposure It's not we don't have a necessarily a real directional bias in wheat So we're just gonna close that out. And then we've also got the other piece. We've also got the Another full iron condor here where you can see it's pretty centered if we get a little bit more theta decay action next week We may close that one out But we'll see what happens Next trade opening trade in az o auto zone. So this is a an iron We did an iron duck here. This is a high-priced symbol. You can see it's trading over a thousand dollars So it's great from that standpoint from an iron duck But I also mentioned open interest is really low in here. So keep your position size small You know, it's just tough to get filled I typically don't use this and especially for alerts just because it is so illiquid now the market's close here So don't pay attention to that P&L graph because that's not correct But the the bid ask spreads are a little bit wide and if you look at the open interest We did this one with seven days to expiration. You can see it's it's double digit Sometimes single digit on some strikes. So it's not great. You know, this isn't one that we want to use for kind of bread and butter We ended up putting in an order and got filled at a decent credit. And so, you know, we're gonna trade it But it's definitely not our go-to trading vehicle But we're just looking for you know doing our duck hunting looking for additional options and and the criteria fit worked out So and we got filled so we're in that trade But don't feel bad if you don't take a trade like this With with interest that low. It's just you know, it's it you got to work your order a little bit more The bid ask spreads are a little bit wider than we like. It's kind of a real borderline type symbol But anyway, we are in the trade and so we'll see what happens there Next trade opening trade in SPX. So we put on another iron duck in SPX this one with 17 days to expiration And actually let me Let me get to another SPX alert here Yeah, the next very next one so we opened one with 17 days and then this one had seven days left to expiration Price had run up. And so we just closed that out for for near beak profit We wouldn't need to get out at five dollars for kind of exactly at the beak We paid up five cents. So we got it at 505 But booked a beak profit there and then threw this one new one on and so we've got So we've got this one which the market just closed so it expired today So I'm gonna I'm after I get done recording this I'll send out the alert So by the time you view this you'll have received the alert that this one Expired and we just booked that beak profit of 115 But the one that we just put on today with 17 days is This one here and so you can see prices come down, you know the market being down prices come down a little bit since we put it on Got a max profit of 625 beak profit of 125 on that one So if we get some continuation to the downside We'll you know look to put another spx duck on next week You know continue to ladder in and out of these things Next trade closing trade in rut. So did nice nice trade here We had a weekly double calendar on price stayed fairly centered It kind of bounced. I mean it bounced around it actually bounced around down to our Break even one time and then bounce back up, but it was it was pretty took very little heat. We were Pretty centered for a lot of this a lot of this trade It's kind of bounced around here. So we ended up booking a nice profit on that one And then lastly closing trade in Roku. So this one was a little bit frustrating This was one that we were dead center in the duckhead and then Towards the end of the this afternoon we go to the chart Roku I Know a couple people in the community bailed on this one yesterday got at a better pricing than we did but just had this move lower this afternoon and came all the way over to the kind of the edge of the of the short put and So we didn't get a full duck head, which is what I was hoping but we still booked a decent profit like 250 ish dollars. I think it was I can't remember exactly but still a decent profit not the duckhead I was looking for but we're out of that Roku position. We'll look to potentially jump into another one implied volatility nice and high Earnings isn't for a while. So we've got some room to roam So we'll look to put another potential duck on in Roku next week Those are all the alerts. Let's take a look at some of the other positions here oil We've got a duck and oil and man. What a slide in oil after the whole Iran situation. Let's come down from Almost 66 all the way down to 59 in just a matter of a few days So we've got this iron duck, which is centered right here in the duckhead So if we can stay in a little bit of a range here into next week This one's got seven days of five days. So this one expires on Wednesday So hopefully we can get some good good profits out of that one Yes, we've got this long put vertical You can see prices hanging out just inside of our range here looking for some downside to benefit that I mentioned gold I mentioned Natty bonds. We've got two different positions in bonds. One is this 161 short straddle so it was a short strangle and we've adjusted it into a straddle See prices is hanging out right here could use a little bit of upside movement on that piece to benefit us and then this one is Price is hanging out right here price opened up lower And I was hoping we would just book a profit of around 30 plus percent of max on this one this morning But it moved up pretty quick. So we're just we're just holding on if we get a little bit of downside movement We will go ahead and book this one and then continue to manage the other one So looking for price just to kind of ping pong around back and forth and you know, hopefully we can benefit on both of these Wheat I mentioned apple. I mentioned Amazon. We've got an iron duck in Amazon and This is the one Yeah, no, I did not mention this. So this has got about 22% chance So we weren't looking to take this one off yet It's prices pretty far up the duck beak But like said still about a 22% chance of getting back into that max profit area So we'll hold on to this next week and this one. We've got seven days. Yeah, seven days to expiration. So this expires next Friday Azeo I mentioned booking. I mentioned DE John Deere. We've got this short call vertical here prices just outside the range looking for some downside to benefit that DIA so we've got one of these in January So we will potentially be rolling this here in the next week or so as we get down This is seven days away. So yeah next week for sure We'll be rolling this out to extend duration keep that short delta Hopefully we get a little downside movement before we do that and then this one's already out in feb So we're just holding this one for now Google already mentioned that IWM we've got a long put vertical here prices hanging out inside the range here Just looking for some more downside to benefit that I mentioned the cues SMH We've got this short strangle almost at a point of being able to take this off Just continuing to hold that for some more theta decay now We're still we're working our way back to profits on this SMH trade You know if we get some a pop and implied volatility we may consider adding to this If not, we may just continue to roll it as we get closer down to 21 days expiration But you can see we've got 42 still left. So we've got a lot of time SPX I already mentioned that one SPY. So we've got a Short call vertical it's Part of a previous iron condor you can see prices just hanging out just outside the range So I need a little bit of downside to get back in there. I mentioned Tesla and then lastly XLK We've got this long put vertical just outside the range. So again one of our short delta positions Just looking for that to go down to to benefit us there So that's it my friends those are all the positions those are all the alerts everybody have a great weekend And we'll see you here in the community next week