 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim sawness and dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm as we are once again getting you said for Super Bowl 54 between the chiefs and the 49ers today Talking with dr. Eric Higa a pro football focus. He is down in Miami We're gonna get his thoughts on this game and where he is leaning for the chiefs and the 49ers My name is Jim sawness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power rank comm and find Ed on Twitter at the power rank Ed Super Bowl coming up on Sunday. How you doing? I'm doing great Still looking forward to the game just like yesterday There are some podcasts that do five podcasts in a weekly of Super Bowl. I don't think I could do that partly because like by this time of year were probably a little burned out, but also like Yeah, there's a lot. I Agree with that. I actually thought about breaking my Super Bowl preview up into like four or five little episodes I decided not to just because I felt like it flowed a little bit too well the way I had it into one one thing but you know for me like During the regular season, I never get into one game quite this much So it's fun to you know dive into the personnel a little bit more It's fun to think about some of these Props in in the game stuff that just doesn't happen for any single regular season game Yeah, so it's just a little bit a little bit at a different over process and you know the People want to hear about it this week So, you know, let's give them what they want and it's a lot slower process Which I think is a good thing because you have more time to actually like diagnose the intervals of matchups We're gonna talk about with Dr. Eric eager and just a bit, but he is down in Miami as mentioned and I Think that's like a That's like a goal like if I could so like a bucket list thing if I could sometime be at the Super Bowl I don't care if it's like there To like talk at all I just want to like be around the atmosphere in the Super Bowl because like in other events when you're around That fun energy, right? It's it's hard to parallel that like one time I've been at anything close to that was Playoff game a Minnesota twins playoff game back when I was like in high school middle school, maybe I was Game where Tory Hunter like overdo the ball in center field and the A's had inside the park home Ron is a really bad game if you were a twins fan But like just that energy of the atmosphere is so cool, and I think it's it's awesome that Eric's down there Yeah, absolutely. I think The energy is is really awesome and just you know, it's kind of like going this You know for me going to the Sloan every year where you kind of have that energy of being around all the GM's and and Yeah, it's very cool. It's a lot of football talk I'd that would also be a lot of fun. This is our second Super Bowl podcast I guess second and a half maybe we did talk about with the whale capper last week Find him on Twitter at whale underscore capper to get his thoughts a couple thoughts in Super Bowl 54 We had JJ Zacharyson of number fire and Fanduul on yesterday to break down some player prop beds to get both the whale capper And the JJ podcast make sure you search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast whether that be Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher the Google Play Store you can find us there and if you're listening on Apple podcast Please feel free to give us a rating and review as well because those do help us out a ton Dr. Eric eager you can find him on Twitter at pff underscore Eric He is a data scientist for pro football focus and the co-host of the pff forecast podcast We're gonna preview Super Bowl 54 with him from Miami right now Covering the present Let's bring dr. Eric eager back into covering the spread once again to break down Super Bowl 54 And he is coming to us from Miami Eric How are things going down there at the site of Super Bowl 54? Well, it's you know living in Cincinnati growing up in Minnesota. It's never this warm there, right? There's people everywhere. It's a little overwhelming, but it's a lot of fun I think I just I walked I told you guys I walked by Barry Sanders on the way here And I interestingly I was huge Stan growing you know growing up and then I found out that running backs don't matter So it's a little conflicting morally for me But yeah, it's a lot of fun Say one what did Barry say when you told him that running backs don't matter Well, I I didn't actually say hi to him otherwise You know he still looks like he could play a little bit so I didn't want to you know infuse anything I remember my brush with that was when the Vikings drafted Adrian Peterson I was like I think I was either in middle school or early high school and I texted my dad And I was like I'm gonna watch every Vikings game now cuz I wasn't a Vikings fan But like and now I'm like oh, you know that actually didn't matter all the pretty good player But you know didn't matter all that much, but I mean it's pretty cool. You're down there What's the atmosphere been like the first couple of days? You know, it's been great And I think one of the cool things so we have four or five six people down here giving interviews and doing stuff And and you know We used to be a group that was you know met with a lot of skepticism Analytics met with a lot of skepticism and now people do want to hear about you know how you know Kyle Shanahan, you know runs his offense and how he does it optimally and Pat Mahomes to Andy Reed and and even another Ravens Right, even though they lost in the divisional round like why were they you know? Why are they like now gonna be a mainstay at the elite part of the AFC? And so like it's just fun because the league like is evolving to the point where somebody you know People like us are welcome down here and we can chat with people about the game and there are perspectives value And I don't want to like out you here But I think you're pretty public about the fact you're a cheese fan and we can mention that here I think because we know you're good enough analysts to Analyze things objectively, but as like a cheese fan, you know, it's been a while obviously 50 years since they've been to the Super Bowl So does that kind of change the experience for you knowing that you're gonna like get to see your team in this game? Yeah, I mean I went to the AFC title game two weeks ago and the funniest thing And so I was in I went as a part of a radio station I do hits for and the people in the booth like I'm you know 34 years old I've only really been a cheese fan for 10 years or so Yeah So like I don't have the the scars that these folks have but like the amount of time that people just like said Finally like there were tense like I met a guy who was a radio show host of different stations Like hey, sorry, I didn't say hi to you at the game I was just so nervous the whole time I was like, you know like being kind of being working in football, you know being a fan But being a little bit detached you don't necessarily get as much of that right and so So for me, I am like I was more nervous about the AFC title game than I am about this game I think if they lose to the 49ers they would have been beaten by a you know for me a Viable opponent, but it is sort of it adds a little bit of fun for sure Absolutely So Eric, let's get into the game Patrick Mahomes is looked awesome this season, especially in the postseason and What is your take on whether the 49ers defense can keep them in check? Well, you know in this game is going to be about who can get two or three stops It's not going to be about shutting down the other team and so, you know from that perspective I think the only team in the NFL this postseason that's been able to stop Kansas City has been themselves Maybe we've seen the the two drops early in the game against Houston last week Yeah, the Kelsey drop on the first drive and then the drop by Tyreek Hill on the first drive of the second half You know most of the time their receivers are getting open most of the time Mahomes He didn't have a negatively graded throw last week Yeah, he has only 4% of his throws were negatively graded postseason So, you know the Niners are gonna have to do quite a bit and hope you know the chiefs stop being so efficient offensively in order for them to like, you know, I mean if they only score in the Low 20s, I do think they win 49ers so, you know, how do you get those three four stops you need? I think that they're gonna have to cover on the back end and then make the homes hold on do it a little longer And then the the pass rushers have to be disciplined uses past rushers in Tennessee's morning We saw Mahomes make plays of this leg as a result. So you said 4% negatively graded throws What's like the context on that like what's league average for that number if he said 4%? 15% And and Mahomes Mahomes when he spent the first probably 10 weeks of the year hurt He was at about 15% so his his floor is basically league average in terms of limiting negative plays And then since then he's been, you know, I believe it's like 8% since their bi-week So he's just been, you know really efficient like just being accurate, right? And the thing out of Texas tech for him was always like he was a while He was a gunslinger and fret-farve all that kind of stuff But missed as many throws as he made it made and to probably Andy Reed's credit That simply hasn't been the case last season He was at 9 9% negatively graded throws or 9.5% in this year He finished somewhere around like 11 or 12 over the whole course of the season So he's just a very efficient football player in terms of getting the ball in his player playmaker's hands So Eric, I want to ask you about maybe what exactly Andy Reed does I saw your tweet about his, you know, his less negative negatively graded throws I've done some work. Basically Andy Reed's team's interception rate have been below average All but three of his 21 seasons All of them happened in Philadelphia Hasn't had a season above the NFL pick rate in Kansas City Any sense for what Andy Reed is doing? Yeah, and you get the the offshoots of that are great, right? Because the Chiefs defense, for example, has not been a talented group for like three, four years And they're still winning 60, 70% of the games And so I went back and looked at starting field position for an opponent And Andy Reed has been better than all but one team over the past few years and that's New England So like, not throwing interceptions is just one of many things he does to put The rest of his team in a position to succeed even when they're weak And that to me is like Andy Reed Andy Reed, you know, when you win 65, 70% of your starts with Alex Smith You're just putting him in a position to succeed And the most the thing that I wanted like the the thing about Reed to me that That demonstrates his brilliance more than anything was in 2016 They were 12 and four, they were two seed in the AFC Alex Smith other than Sam Bradford are the lowest average of the target in the league They knew they had to be more explosive on offense So they go and draft Patrick Mahomes with the 10th overall pick They used three picks to go up and get him And Saddam is first year But instead of playing Alex Smith's offense He prepared a new offense for Patrick Mahomes with Alex Smith Average of the target his last year in Kansas City was was a half a yard bigger Than the previous season he won the passing the passer rating title So like to me he's not only been grooming this position for Patrick Mahomes For some while he's been in the you know in the league But he groomed it for him when he was you know having him sit on the bench for a year And it's just to me just terrific core site Terrific just creating an environment for Mahomes who has all the gifts in the world But you know wasn't as productive at Texas Tech as you know some of these other quarterbacks And we've seen the results Yeah, and I think the incredible thing about that Alex Smith offense was that He was so efficient on deep balls And you know that's not even like you know He he was never that talented in throwing deep But all of a sudden once he gets Andy Reed, Tyree Kill and Travis Kelsey The efficiency is there too And it just kind of it showed you the upside of that offense If you were able to get someone who objectively had better talent in there And that's exactly what they'd done Absolutely and then you've even looked at how this has evolved If we look at the San Francisco offense They're a very some up in the passing game They're very similar to what the Chiefs were during the early Smith years Where Kelsey's leading the league in the act for a tight end Tyree kills a low a dot player just like Devo Samuel has been And then you look at you know, and then you look at the low a dot of Jimmy grapple He's the lowest in the league, you know Smith was second lowest in 2016 So there's a really fun parallel there Reed has evolved his offense away from what San Francisco is doing in the passing game Whereas Shanahan, you know with grapple kind of in Alex Smithy and type player I think he's a little bit maybe has more potential But like you know succeeding just the way that Reed did with Smith Yeah, it's really interesting the parallels Between both teams for a lot of turn factors for this week Now let's talk about the other side of the ball here Because the Chiefs able to put the clamps on Derek Henry in the ASA championship But Kyle Shanahan's schemes in the running game Are next level from pretty much anyone So do you think this 49ers ground game will continue to be as successful as it was Those first two postseason games or can the Chiefs kind of turn the ties here a bit? Yeah, so so the Niners running game is 14th this year in success rate Which I think a lot of us will pull back and say well that seems kind of low I mean they're a very good run team And and that's like I think the point to beating them they are explosive There's six in EPA per run play But they're they're 14th in success rate Which means they get stopped on first and second down Relatively frequently for a team that's as efficient as they are running the football That has to be it for the Chiefs And the thing that that Kansas City has done so well to improve themselves is they tackle better Right, so you know both of these defenses are lower in the league standings In success rate than they are in EPA allowed Which means again they're giving up some successful plays that don't turn into big plays I think for Kansas City to succeed both in past defense and in run defense They have to kind of do that they have to tackle You know Derek Henry had a decent number of four-yard gains against them He didn't have that many 15-yard gains against them And that I think really helped them sort of like maintain you know sort of efficiency on defense Yeah, absolutely. So you also wrote this week about the improvement in the Chiefs past defense When Jimmy G does have to air it out who do you think has the edge there? Well, I think the 49ers still do obviously with scheme and with talent I you know great so you take Kelsey or sorry Kittle and you take Matthew to elite players of the position I always think when that matchup happens the offensive player has an advantage So like in in that you know in that matchup, it's probably going to be George Kittle getting his and you know Deebo Samuel is you know pretty good And even while the Chiefs second area I think is really good as a unit They're not as talented player for players So, you know, I think they're improved and the name of the game And again, this is always fun because we think about historic Super Bowl defenses about being a shutdown defense The goal for the Chiefs on Sunday is to get two or three stops Like that's it. That's all they have to do And and we saw that with ten in the Tennessee game They score to go down 1714 Tennessee runs the ball in first down Get stopped for a yard runs the ball in second now get stopped for a yard And then Tennessee goes, you know goes in the pre-vend and runs a screen And the game's over I think by that time right like you did once my home's got the ball You know and a score would put them in the lead and that to me is the thing So, you know, make Garoppolo play from the ordinary situations Force, you know, inefficient first and second downs And then cover and tackle right cover and tackle low ADAP plays on third and long As long as you tackle you're going to have you're going to get a stop or two Excellent and then and then also do you think the Chiefs defense is going to miss one Thornhill I've been looking at his cover grades all week They're good Yeah, and they're very good for Thornhill Sorenson's come in a little bit it looks like a little bit of a downgrade Or torn into the scouting of you guys does that open up in your opportunities for the Niners Absolutely, but one thing that Spagnola has done a great job with when they signed Matthew He was going to be their deep safety like a Earl Thomas type And, you know, traditionally in his career he's played in the slot, you know, Houston and also Arizona And so, you know, Kendall Fuller was playing the slot He was the main main piece of the Alex Smith trade Since Fuller's come back from injury he's played in the deep safety role Sorenson's kind of played down in the box and then Matthew has played in the slot So it sort of moved around the chairs a little bit To where it's not a it's not a direct Sorenson for Thornhill replacement Sorenson was already playing a lot as a linebacker in the dime And things like that at nickel and and so, you know, he's kind of still playing that role It's Kendall Fuller who's a converted corner playing that deep position I think he's done a pretty good job at it It's really impressive to change your scheme on the run Which is kind of what they've done because Thornhill was down late in the year And to be able to change that as you're making a playoff run Is pretty wild and I think it says a lot about Steve Spagnolo And I think they're like, we kind of glossed over that move in the off season Because, you know, as oh, they kind of had to make the change After what happened in the AC Championship game But it has made a major difference And I feel like we've kind of overlooked it, I guess Yeah, I mean the the last AC Championship game The Patriots were able to throw the ball in 2.23 seconds per throw And all of their first reads more or less were available to them And now, you know, the Chiefs not only forced quarterbacks to their second read relatively frequently But they're a top 10 team in the NFL in terms of expected points added on the first read So they're simply just covering that first look that the other quarterback has Better than they did a season ago And it's crazy because their personnel other than Matthew And Thornhill have not been, I mean, Basha Breeland's a replacement level Corner and Charvarius Ward was an undrafted player That they were able to acquire from Dallas a season ago And he played the ASG title again as a starter So it's really sort of a fun look at sort of how much the coordinator matters in defense Absolutely Now Eric, you're down there in Miami, you've been talking a lot I'm sure throughout this week and talking about a lot of different players And you've been talking to different media members, you know, like us Who are asking you questions Who is one player not getting enough talk right now Who has the potential to really skew things here from a betting perspective From a betting perspective, that's great So to me, it's like, to me, it's who that tertiary chief receiver is Because I think the sharp play, you know, when you're looking at totals Is to stay away from Kelsey, stay away from Hill Because every single game, it's one or two of them So you look at like the passing map from a home to the Houston game And it was all Kelsey in that middle strip, that 10 to 19 And then he almost completely avoided that against Tennessee He went deep to walk and he went underneath to everybody else And so like it's sort of hard to It's sort of like with a Patriots running back It's sort of hard to know who they're going to incorporate But if you look at like the second year, Nicole Hardman's of the world The Demarcus Robinson's of the world And the Sammy Watkins of the world Like there's I think some betting angles there that matter a lot And to me, it all starts with Nicole Hardman He out snapped Demarcus Robinson last week I believe for the first time in a while Robinson has been going down I think he's like a good candidate for an over, Robinson and under And then with Watkins, you just basically have to bite the bullet And bet his under every single game Like because there's going to be games like last week Where you're just like, oh crap, you know, like he gets you, right But then the other 10 out of every 15 games He's going to go under that total by a country mile, right So from the betting perspective, I think it's Hardman I think he does chip away a little bit at the targets Of the secondary receivers for Kansas City Yeah, pro football focus had Hardman As running 22 routes last week Which is the most he has run this year In a game where Tyree Kill was healthy So I am very much interested in a Nicole Hardman as well That speed too is pretty lethal So we've seen the total in this game kind of go up It's 54 and a half right now It opened up at 52 and a half It's been pretty steady at 54 and a half for a while now Do you think that number has moved too far Or do you think that upward movement is appropriate? Yeah, I think our number for the game is 54.4 So it's basically been where it's had to be So I've taken a few overs Specifically like early on when the big market moves The secondary markets are slower to move So you can get the team like that Kansas City Chiefs team total 27 was available on Sunday night It's morning morning at minus 110 Now it's 27 and a half like minus 130 minus 140 So you look at some of those You're like those have moved quite drastically I think if this thing gets to 56 With that being it's hard to say in the NFL But a key number being eight touchdowns or so Then the unders in play I think right now you just sort of leave it where it is You think your star is that you got 52 and a half Earlier in the week and you move on But to me I think it's actually in the right spot Because if you go through the game states There's not a ton of game states Where both teams score relatively few points Interesting And how about the side We have the Chiefs at minus one and a half At Fandil Sportsbook What's your number and any opinions on that? Yeah, I have them basically minus 0.6 So if you're inclined to Obviously being a Chiefs fan I don't know if I want to bet San Francisco But I do think if you're going to I do think San Francisco is maybe a little bit undervalued At the same time like It's basically a pick the winner situation I've looked back at a few other Super Bowls Last year I mean you get some dead numbers And they're sort of enticing you just to kind of They're enticing you into bad bets at this point Because of the wisdom and the crowds and everything So basically if you look at this number It's sort of irrelevant You just pick who you think will win And generally speaking that will be the right side Yeah, absolutely It should be a pretty fun game Any other numbers that stand out to you We got a lot of markets Tender for the Super Bow Any ones that stand out to you as being profitable Yeah, so we put out a few this week So I like the Watkins unders I think Watkins if you can get him Like I saw somewhere I think was this Superbook had him as under four and a half perceptions I think that's a pretty good play These vary so much But if you can get Watkins under You know, let's say 67 and a half Is I think where his yardage total was I think at Vanduul it's maybe a little bit higher But another one a couple ones Like so this is specifically from you guys I like you know Devo Samuel 54 and a half That's a probably an over if you like that And then I you know hold your nose and mostured under 77 and a half Even though it's minus 124 you guys are at It's it's me I think like they they want to be multiple At the running back position And the and the sort of likelihood That they're going to give him all the carries again It's pretty well Yeah, we had JJ Zachary So not yesterday to talk about props And he also said mostured under 77 and a half It seems like Coleman's trending towards playing so And they've never really given one Dude all the carries when they've had A full compliment of guys So it seems to bode well for mostured under Especially if you think that the chiefs wind up Putting up a pretty good number It's harder to see mostured hitting that number Well that and yeah So the tricky part is that Burrida had the fumble issues Late in the season and against the Vikings So if they're if he and most were the only two available backs There is a chance that he would just go straight with mostured Just because of a lack of trust But historically he's always wanted to play two backs Even all the way back to the Atlanta days Yep All right, that is Dr. Eric Eager A pro football focus you can find His podcast as well PFF forecast All the good stuff from down in Miami Eric Want to thank you for carving out some time for us During I'm sure what is a busy week We really do appreciate it Good luck Enjoy the game And hopefully we'll talk to you again soon Hey guys thanks for having me on This is a fun podcast to follow along with All season You guys have done a great job Thank you so much We appreciate it and have fun See you guys Covering the future One final big thank you to Dr. Eric Eager For swinging by for today again Find him on Twitter at pff underscore Eric And make sure you check out his podcast The pff forecast podcast And if you're looking to place a bet on the big game But aren't sure which team will win yet Fandall has you covered Simply place a bet of at least $25 On an anytime touchdown scorer prop For this for the big game And receive a $1 bonus and site credit For every point scored Buy your player selected team up to $25 It is that easy For more details This is sportsbookdaffandall.com Must be 21 years old Gambling problem Call 1-800-Gambler And one thing that Eric touched on there Ed was Raheem Mostert And the under on his rushing prop At 77 and a half That's something that JJ talked about yesterday And just kind of exploiting recency bias And you know you're not going to find Much more recency bias than on a guy Who just went off for four touchdowns In like 200 yards Yeah absolutely And I really respect both JJ and Eric And you know I think when The Super Bowl is obviously a very public Betting event There's people that don't bet a lot That are going to come in and like Oh hey Look what Mostert did last week And keep that number really high And I think that's going to be related Actually I don't think I know that's going to be related To what I'm going to talk about And covering the future as well Just got to remember It's a really public Betting event The Super Bowl And you know It's good to It's good to fade the public And people who just get too excited about things That makes me very nervous Because I bet the chiefs And the public money is on the chiefs So we'll see We'll see how that one goes We'll get to the cover in the future In just one second But first Fandall continues to give you More ways to win this time With its big game props pick'em contest Log into your Fandall Or Fandall's sports book account And answer 15 questions on the chiefs match But the 49ers And if you get at least 12 questions Right You will earn $100 But if you get all 15 questions correct You'll earn $15,000 And the best part is It's completely free to play Seriously To enter visit fandall.com Or sportsbook.fandall.com Eligibility restrictions apply Let's move now into covering the future And Ed You said you wanted to exploit the public When it comes to an event like this That is very heavily bet on by the public Where do you find an edge When you're looking at the props available For Super Bowl 54? Yeah, I mean I think in general The idea is you want to To fade the public You know the public is going to be excited They're going to bet things like the over They're going to bet you know over like yards And just for things to happen And as Gila Alexander likes to say You know when you're going like taking it under You're betting against humanity And essentially you're kind of betting Against humanity here And Rufus Peabody has talked about this a lot He's big on betting Super Bowl props And he every year is cheering for The most boring game possible So essentially just what we got last year Last year You know you can kind of hear him counting his money last year Is like the defenses of the Rams And the Patriots were dominating that game So anyways I wanted to put a little data Behind one of them Let's just look at safeties So safeties are pretty random Pretty rare as they come into games When you look at the data over the last five Regular seasons There's been about 15.6 safeties on average Per season And so when you work that out per game That means there's about a six percent chance For a safety in a game And it probably could be less Because it was a possibility That two of those safeties could happen in a single game So that essentially means that There's about a 90 At least the 94 percent chance That there's no safety in this game So this is something that you should look for That's the number that data says Over the last five regular seasons You're not going to You don't want to bet this at a sharp book Like Fandall Because I think it was minus 2,200 And if you work out the math There's no value in there But if you can get a lower number You know betting against safety Is something that you might be interested in I'm almost certain that a sharp like Rufus Peabody Is making these types of bets as well So that's the number driven by the data I think it's I also talked about Using data and numbers where randomness is really The primary driving force The counter example is like Whether the first play is going to be a run or a pass There's less randomness in that Because that's something in the mind of a coach Based on personnel or whatever he's looking at Safety, no one's scheming for a safety A lot of it has to be a confluence of factors So I do think this is something That randomness is going to play a role The number is there's probably about 94 percent chance Or more that there's no safety And use that to look at your sports book Or shop around for the safety problem What would the number need to be For you to bet on there being a safety If there happened to be a book that was a little bit more A little more frisky with the safeties Would you need that to be closer to like Seven or eight percent for you to find value in it Or where these two offenses push you away I mean you know I'm betting against humanity Jim So I mean I'm gonna go with a no I mean obviously there is a yes bet too But no I mean it's just I think it's an example of just the way The betting works with the Super Bowl And what sharps are taking Just like JJ and Eric Eger are telling us Go under Raheem Moser and there's very good reasons for that And I think there's a lot of reasons So you were talking about the value of rooting for a bad game I am going to root for a good game here And go for the over on the cheese point total At 27 and a half because I do like the spread here with the cheese Slaying one and a half But you can get that a better number It's some other books There's also a pretty good amount of juice on One and a half it's minus 115 right now So the number I feel best about Is the cheese getting over 27 and a half points individually Now I should mention that there's pretty heavy juice here too It's minus 122 So again do some price shopping See what number you can get But this is my favorite market for this specific game It's a pretty fair number It's a number I think the chiefs should hit here Because the big question with them Is the match up with the 49ers defense Because they're the second best pass defense in football Based on our metrics at number fire And those were good numbers Even though they played basically half the season Without Quan Alexander and D4 But Patrick Mahomes this year was Unreal against top level competition He had three games against top 10 pass defenses Small sample but he added 0.34 Passing net expected points per drop back Which is a full tenth of a point better Than any other quarterback With at least 100 drop backs in those scenarios Matthew Stafford with second and 0.24 Mahomes was an outlier in the most positive sense And two of those three games he played Against top 10 pass defenses were on the road One of them was against the Patriots Where he heard his hand early in that game And still played pretty well throughout that one Now it's a neutral site Pretty tasty spot there for the chiefs Now the chiefs have failed to score at least 28 points In nine games this year if you count the playoffs Mahomes though didn't play in two of those games Two others were blowouts over the Bears And I believe the Broncos was the other one Where the opponents scored just three total points They didn't have to do much there But the 49ers aren't going to score just three points They're going to force the chiefs To keep the foot on the pedal here At least a little bit And I would expect that the chiefs Should play pretty well there If we look at the non-blowouts in which Mahomes played They scored at least 28 points 10 out of 15 times And given that I expect this game to be competitive They're going to score points And with how good Mahomes has been Even against good defenses I expect them to get there So again I don't mind the spread I think minus one and a half is fair I like it better at one obviously But I think that that's an okay number I feel a lot better about the over on their point total At 27 and a half So if I had to pick one number to bet For Super Bowl 54 I would go with the over on that point total At 27 and a half even though there is Minus 122 on that over at FanDuel Sportsbook And you talked about the spread Being fairly efficient yesterday Any leans for you on the individual team totals The 49ers are I believe at 26 right now Any feel for you on either their total Or the chief's total? Yeah I do think if any of them I like chiefs over their win total And I think the idea is that The ceiling for the chief's offense Is higher than the ceiling for the San Francisco's defense And that's nothing against San Francisco's defense They're a great unit They proved it all year Patrick Mahomes hasn't just been great recently He's been great over two years as a starter And they got a lot of guys healthy And on many parts of that offense He's got a lot of weapons There's a lot of speed And you know they do simple things Like throw a lot on first down So of any of those I think I would go With that matchup If you want to bet the 49ers Their team total right now is 27 With minus 116 on the under So a little bit higher actually Yeah that would be just Also interesting I think that number is I think that over is a little bit interesting too A lot of respect for San Francisco's offense They've been pretty good all year Actually better passing success rate Than running success rate Something Eric Eager talked about as well And then you have the injuries On Kansas City's defense Juan Thornhill won't be there And Chris Jones is still dinged up right? Yeah he was limited in practice last week And I think to me that says he'll play But it might be a situation Similar to that Titans game Where he played But wasn't an every down player And like when he did play He was super disruptive But it's different when you're playing the 49ers Where the situations where You're going to want him in there Are the early downs Where he can kind of bottle up most of it And that's those war with the situations He was out there against the Titans So I think if we get Chris Jones To like the Titans version of Chris Jones It's a different situation Than if we can get a full Chris Jones There'll be more practice reports I believe today Wednesday So maybe monitor him And consider the 49ers If he's still limited practice there Yeah Yeah I'd be interested to see I mean he's obviously Probably the best player in that defense Or close to it So and a guy Him or Matthew Him or Matthew It's one of those two Yeah I mean Frank Clark's pretty good too But you know I mean Chris Jones is going to be on the interior A little bit more Trying to disrupt the running game As well as rushing the passers So Yeah And like we talked about yesterday If there is a Quote on quote weakness Of the 49ers offense It is their interior offensive line play So Chris Jones A pretty major factor in a guy To keep an eye on here That is all we have for Super Bowl 54 And it's been a pleasure Breaking things down for you And I'm excited to Not talk about it anymore And just sit back and enjoy some football Yeah absolutely I think it's my last show of the week So Yeah Me too It's very freeing to have my final podcast On a Wednesday like What am I supposed to do Thursday, Friday I guess we'll see But you just released a new episode Of the football analytics show With Nick Costos That's awesome Yeah had Nick on It was a fun conversation We talked about analytics and betting And fantasy football We talked about Super Bowl We talked about a lot of things That were not Super Bowl as well Food books Nick's a fun guy He got a lot of opinions And was just It was really fun to talk to So check it out at the football analytics show That's awesome I need to give that a listen Because Nick Is I've interacted with him a couple of times Being on You Better You Bet Than having him on this podcast And just A fun person to listen to talk Like I could give him a microphone And let him just kind of go for an hour And see what comes out And I think I would listen to that personally So Yeah A guided conversation would be pretty good too What else do you have over at the Power Inc? Well I keep finding mistakes in my Super Bowl preview So Hey that's why That's why we have the longer shelf life man It's time to make edits You're good Yeah exactly I mean the one I really made was that I missed that Juan Thornhill was heard Until we had talked yesterday And then I also Keep saying that Patrick Holmes' rookie year Was last season Right You pointed out It's not true That was this year as a starter So Anyways I still think the preview was really good I looked at offensive tendencies Looked at some snap count data on defense To see how Both defenses will approach the game And looked at turnovers And things I mentioned about Andy Reed And his interception rate Since he's been a head coach Which I think is fascinating So you can get that at thepowerrank.com I was looking through a piece I wrote for Number Fire in I think Like 2013 or 2014 a couple weeks ago Just for some reason It was about Vance Warley Being the opening day starter for the Twins And I found a typo there So it is never too late To find and correct a typo Because you bet I went in and made that change Never too late Make sure you find all that's work Over at thepowerrank.com Find him on Twitter at thepowerrank And check out the football analytics show Wherever you get your podcasts As I mentioned yesterday We do have a DFS show up as well For the single game slate for the Super Bowl With myself and Brandon Gadouli You can find that by searching for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed And of course check out our podcast The JJ Zacharyson Which went up yesterday And our podcast with Whale Cap Or last week about the NBA Breaking down all those things You can get those By searching for covering the spread Wherever you get your podcasts If you have any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S You can also find The FanDuel Podcast Network At FanDuel Podcast Big thank you to Calvin Theobald Our video producer Front of the video side of things here today As always Thank you, Calvin Thank you to Dr. Eric Eager JJ Zacharyson And WhaleCapper For helping us preview Super Bowl 54 Good luck to all of you As you place your bets For the big game on Sunday Enjoy the game Hopefully you are able to still enjoy it Even with all the money on the line And we'll talk to you again soon This has been covering the spread right here On the FanDuel Podcast Network