 Hello and welcome to the CBC Markets Weekly Webinar with myself, David Madden, Market Analyst here at CBC Markets and today's date is Monday the 22nd of January and the time has just gone 12.15 GMT 12.15 PM UK time. Now as always with the webinars I'll just run through the risk warnings on the slides here which you can read it in your own time and then we'll proceed with the webinar itself. Essentially the risk warning states that anything that is discussed in this webinar is my own personal views, my own personal opinions, my own comments. They're not to be construed as explicit investment advice or trading recommendations. It's all fairly straightforward stuff. I'll leave that on the screen for you to have a quick read through. In the meantime as I read through that I'll just have a quick discussion about what's been going on in the major headlines in the financial market news since the close of business in London on Friday. Especially the biggest news, I'm not saying it's had the most impact in the markets, but the biggest news is the US government has shut down. Essentially it was passed in the House of Representatives at the back in the last week which is the lower house or the equivalent of the House of, which is the lower house, the equivalent say the House of Commons, but it was failed to pass through the Senate, the upper house, the equivalent of the House of Lords and for that reason the US government has shut down. Now it sounds much more scary than it actually is. This has happened 18 times in the past 42 years. We've seen a scenario where this happened in October 2013 and the markets had a fairly muted reaction to it because what essentially means is the essential elements of the government are continued to operate. Effectively it means kind of no new laws are being brought in because the government's on shut down, but that doesn't mean that the equivalent of the American civil service has just stopped working and so on and so forth. It is business as usual. It just means the actual the actual sphere of politics where laws are proposed, debated and potentially introduced that has grown down to a halt. So that is the really big news, even though we actually haven't had much of a reaction from the financial markets. Speaking with keeping with the political theme, the SPD, the Social Democrats over in Germany, the Left Center Party have agreed to enter formal negotiations with Angela Merkel's CDU, Christian Democratic Union, the Left Center Party, to elective to form a coalition government. Now, this is only kind of the very, very beginning, early steps, but nonetheless it is potentially welcomed political news. The German government, Germany has been without a functioning government since September. So if you're wondering how come the American market hasn't been rattled by the American shutdown, Germany hasn't had a functioning government. Remember that there was a federal election over in Germany in September and the hung parliament was a result and the parties still haven't gotten together. Mrs. Merkel hopes to get these talks wrapped up by February 12th, so Germany could be looking without a functioning government for some time to come yet. But the German civil service is in process, the German economy is going well. In the meantime, we've seen some economic indicators from Germany which have been actually an all multi-year highs or indeed all time highs. All employment, for example, in Germany is now at its lowest rate since unification. So just because there is necessarily a functioning government doesn't necessarily mean that's it. Everything grinds to a halt. You know, the civil service continues, the free market economy continues and life goes on. The political wranglings are slowly going on, are slowly going on the background. We haven't gotten out, but the German economy hasn't slowed. That's why there hasn't been a huge reaction to this news from the financial markets in relation to the United States of America. That being said, it doesn't really give investors an incentive to really snap up US stocks. We have seen a bit of sideways trading, slightly calling it lower about the S&P and the Dow, but given that how much ground they have come in a few weeks and months, a small profit taking is hardly unexpected. The big news in the UK in relation to a handful of companies. There is talk that tomorrow we're going to hear the government has going to change the laws in relation to fixed-out betting and reduce the maximum stake from £100 to £2. So the likely red-eyed Brexit party powers in William Hales are all under pressure today. At Caldwell, the online home delivery grocer, they've announced a massive deal with the Canadian company, the second biggest food retailer in Canada and they are trading about 11% or 12% on the day on the back of that. We're not expecting any major macroeconomic deals from the UK or the Eurozone today, so the currency pairs have been relatively quiet on today's front. So I'm taking a look now at the economic calendar. For those of you who use our training platform, if you go to the Market Pulse tab, click the fourth option down. You can see the market calendar and have a quick run-through of the major economic events of the week. This is quite a good economic calendar. It gives you a breakdown of what the actual, once the result is announced, it will give you the actual, it will give you the forecast, market consensus and the previous figure. So looking ahead to tomorrow, the big economic indicators to watch out for are the ones here in red, the ZEW business confidence figures from Germany come out at 10am tomorrow. That's going to be the biggest indicators to watch out for. Later in the day, we have consumer confidence from the Eurozone at 3pm and then late night, just before midnight tomorrow, we have trade figures coming out from Japan. We also have the public sector net borrowing from the United Kingdom tomorrow morning, but it's more of a political one rather than one which actually drives the currency a whole lot. So turning our attention to Wednesday, we have more important economic data coming out from the UK. Wednesday is a data that is going to be dominated by the PMI numbers. We have the manufacturing P numbers from France, from Germany, Eurozone as a whole. We also have the unemployment figures and the average earnings figures from the United Kingdom on Wednesday morning at half nine. That's probably going to be the biggest or one of the biggest economic indicators from the UK during the week. Later on in the session around 3pm, we have existing home sales from the United States, bearing in mind, we saw some mixed figures in relation to new building permits and building permits and new home sales, homes of the construction in the US partially driven by the weather. If the ground is as rock solid as it was in some parts of the United States over the crisis period, you're not in a position to actually work on the building side. So we saw building permits were quite strong. We saw it definitely in relation to actually new homes under construction. Wednesday at half three as the day of your single week, we have the inventory figures coming out from the United States in relation to oil and gasoline stockpiles. Turning our attention now to what's going on on Thursday. We have the German IFO business sentiment numbers coming out at nine o'clock in the morning. 12.45 we have the ECB interest rate decision, no change there. But of course, I have one, we will have the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, giving his statement. And that's going to be the one to watch out for, even though we're not really expecting any major changes to it. Any indication though, how Mr Draghi is viewing the very strong economic indicators that have come out of certain eurozone countries and the eurozone as a whole, what he could potentially change with his monetary policy down the line is going to be to watch out for. Broadies speaking, the majority of economic indicators from the major players from the France and Germany and the eurozone as a whole are quite strong, except for inflation. Inflation has a bit on the weak side. And that is an area that Mr Draghi is very concerned about. And inflation, I suspect could be the one which will actually leave the door open to either additional easing beyond September, the end of September 2018. And Mr Draghi does have form of suggesting that, does have form suggesting that the monetary policy will remain loose because it does like to keep the euro quite weak. That being said, the euro, as you'll see in a few minutes, when you look at the Eurodollar chart, is quite strong. The Eurodollar is that we're talking, we're talking multi-year highs against the greenback. So, and it's in Mr Draghi's interest to talk the currency lower. And that's one of Thursday we've won employment claims to the United States. We have new home sales from the United States at 3pm. And we also have Japanese CPI coming out at half 11 on Thursday night. Turning attention now to what's going on on on on Friday morning, we have UK GDP numbers coming out at half, at half, at half nine. And we also have US GDP numbers coming out. Sorry, we also have durable goods figures rather coming out from the US at half past one. As scrolling further down, the US figures, the GDP figures also come out at half past one in the same announcement. So usually you can run down with a webinar I'll talk about. Now that we've covered the main stories of the week, economic highlights of the week. I want to say some of the major markets, some of the popular industries, some of the popular commodities and currency pairs. But as any other markets you'd like me to cover, please feel free to do so. So first off the bat, we look at the FTSE 100. We can see here the FTSE has been in a solid upward trend. The price is by far the most important economic indicator. We can see here since early December, the FTSE rally down here. Last week created a fresh record high. We've taken a bit of a breather. We can see on the MACD indicator here, the MACD histogram, as the market was pushing higher and higher and higher here, getting all time highs, we didn't see the same level of kind of increasing levels of positive momentum. So the price was increasing, but positive momentum is actually decreasing, which is an important sign in itself. The diversions between the two suggest that the buyers here, as they were eating out fresh all-time highs, they were actually doing it kind of, they were running out of momentum. They were kind of running low on energy. What do you know? The market turned over on itself, dropped about 100 points and it's now obviously pushing higher again. So markets stopped moving straight lines. So if you are looking to spot the trend, which is up to the upside, buying on the dip can be a fairly popular strategy. So the market rallied to north of 7,800, pullback south of 7,700. And now, now that we're seeing an increase in positive momentum, negative momentum, we could look to hang around these levels, but the wider trend into the upside. So we could be looking at retesting 7,800 down the line, or up high a 7,900 and then 8,000 beyond that. But if you do see any pullbacks, okay, you might support in around 7,700 or perhaps down around here, 7,640 or down at 7,600 itself. Taking a look now at what's going on over in Germany, the DAX 30. So the DAX here hasn't, has been positive the last few weeks, but hasn't really, hasn't actually managed to take off its all-time high just yet. What we notice here is that it's been quite the range bound over the last few months, in the lower end, 12,800 up to around 13,400. But now we appear to be eyeing up the all-time high, which was created here in November. So the market's been pushing higher here. We could see a pick up in positive momentum. So the increase in positive momentum confirms the positive move on the underlying market itself. So it suggests that we could see this rally continue. So we're pushing higher here. We could be looking at taking off the all-time high of 13,534. And if you go beyond that, we'd be looking towards big psychological numbers of 13,600, 700, 800, some amount of support. If we do see a pullback, we may find some support in around this price area here of 13,200. We did in the past see a lot of consolidation in around here, or perhaps even down at the 50-day moving average at 13,123. The notice on the market on a few occasions actually just stopped short of the 50-day moving average here. So it does have previous form of actually coming, of buyers stepping into the fold just before the 150-day moving average. I'll take a look now at what's going on with the American markets. Like I said, a bit of political instability in the United States, but by and large, it hasn't really impacted the American markets so much. As you can see here, the market markets, the Dow Jones has been in a solid upward trend all the way as it's going on here, creating fresh all-time highs. The market has traded a sideways a small bit here, gave back some of the ground that it has managed to give back some of the ground, but the upper trend is still very much in place, and upper trend by the end of the day has been a popular strategy over the last few months. So if we do see the market move lower, we may find some support, if we have a decent correction, we may head back to this area here of 25,588, or perhaps even as low as 25,106. But if you only get a fairly shallow or small correction, we may even head back to Wednesday's low of in around 26,130, you know, this price area here, and seeing as once we're in kind of uncharted territory around here, if we go beyond here, we go back north properly of 26,000, we go towards 26,100, 200 and so on and so forth. What I will say as this is that as the market was pushing all time highs here, we have seen a slight cooling of positive momentum. So the rate at which traders are buying under the market is dipping slightly, so we could see some buyers, if this shut down lasts a bit longer, or some economic data from the US this week is too hard, we could see a bit of a pullback and if you do see a pullback, that's where you can potentially look at potentially new buyers entering the fold as the wider upper trend is still very much in place. It's a fairly similar view when we look at what's going on with the S&P 500 ratcheting up loads and loads of all-time highs and the market is now cooled ever so slightly, it's been a solid upward trend for the last number of months creating fresh all-time highs nearly on a daily basis. The market though has actually kind of run on steam ever so slightly, but notice how the market is pushing higher here, yet positive momentum is actually been a decline. So once, like we saw in the Futsie earlier on, the rate at which the bulls are buying is cooling off and if you see that, it could be an early sign that we're in for a small bit of a pullback, but it's not going to be overly elaborate about seeing as dips dips in the strong upper market are fairly commonplace. So if you do see a pullback, we may find some support from the low here on Friday at $2,790 or perhaps down as low as $2,770 or if you have a decent correction, we may even as low as $2,736 and move to the upside if you manage to have a decent move, nor if you continue to push higher from here, we could be looking towards $2,820, $30, $40, so on and so forth. Taking a look at the gold market now, the gold has had a good run over the past five weeks. Since the middle of December, gold has had a decent run, partially driven by the weakness in the US dollar, partially driven by the fact that the market isn't even contemplating another rate hike from the United States until the March meeting, which is pretty much two months out from now, so we're potentially about eight weeks away from another potential interest rate hike from the United States, so from that, the inverse relationship between gold and your interest rates is actually as a factor as well. It's also worth noting that the last two giant rates have been decent months for gold, and that's precisely what we've seen as well in 2018 so far. So taking a look at the gold market, since mid-December, the gold market has been a solid upward trend. Granted, we have given back some of the ground from the fresh full-month high-dose credit here, only actually this day last week, but it's an upward trend, so if you do see any moves lower, we may find some support in around this price action here in around 1320, or even lower, down to 1306, or the biggest psychological number of 1300 itself. Notice how as the market was pushing higher here in a fresh full-month high, we did see a distinctive decline in positive momentum, so when that happens here, this can be viewed as divergence, whereby the market's pushing higher, we're not seeing higher highs being reflected in the positive momentum, so the price is rising, but positive momentum is actually cooling, so once again we could see a bit of a pullback in the price of gold, so we may remain in around the 1330 or 1325 region for some time, but bear in mind, the trend with the last five weeks is the upside, so if the upward trend those continue to move in that favour, we could be looking at moving towards 1358, which is the high from September, and if we go north of 1358, we could be looking to go to 1375, which is the high from July 2016. I'll take a look now what's going on in the oil markets, the oil markets have been quite strong very recently, but we have seen a bit of a pullback in recent sessions, so this is the price of Brent crude oil over the last six months, as you can see it's in a very solid upward trend, higher highs, higher lows, after creating a higher high here, fresh three-year high, we've now seen the price pull back ever so slightly, and we have seen an ever so slightly increase in negative momentum, so the markets, the price is moving lower, negative momentum is on the rise, this negative mood could last for a few more sessions to come, and if you do, we may see some fresh buyers enter the fold, seeing as that final dip has been a popular strategy over the last six months, we have seen some fairly decent corrections over the last six months on the price of Brent crude, so if it do move lower, we may find some support in around the 62, 26 area, or $66 a barrel, or $65 a barrel on Brent, but moving to the upside, should the wider trend that's been in place for the last six months continue, the next big demo to watch out for to the upside will be $72.74, which is this price here, if I'm back in late November or early December 2014, we saw a spike here, and given that was a kind of a straight move down here in this time period, there really isn't many price areas to keep an eye out for. Now the price now, I'll turn our attention now to WTI, looking quite similar, whereby the market was in a solid upward trend for six months, hit a multi, hit a three-year high only last week, and now what we're actually seeing is the market come off every so slightly, so similar vein here, higher highs, higher lows, in a solid upward trend, hit a three-year high here, and now we're seeing the market pullback lower here, so as the market's moving lower here, and a bit of profit taking is set in, we may find some support in around this price action here of $62 a barrel, or perhaps even down as low as $65 a barrel itself, but as the price is drifting lower here, we may see some fresh buyers enter the fold seeing as buying on the dip has been the name of the game for the last six months, and moving to the upside, if you take out the recent high of the Irish $65 a barrel, normally $65 if you look towards $66, $67, and of course the big elusive $70 will be the big one to watch out for down the line. Turning our attention now to a couple of currency pairs, the Euro has been in strong form over the last few over the last few months, at the wider trend for 2016, it was was was $2070, it was quite positive, but you can better breathe in late in September 2017, but basically since November, the kind of upward trend has resumed for the Euro dollar, so it's pushing higher here, edge eyeing up the $123 level, but still very much so in an upward trend, so the next big level to watch out for the upside will be $124, $125, if you do see it going to move slower at the price of the Euro dollar, this area here of the $122, or perhaps even as low as $121, $65, could be areas of support to make them to play, or even down as far from the December, late December, early January high of $120.92 and also that level is significant as well because it was the high from September, so if we do move lower we could find some buyers enter the fold in around here, it's only if you should take out a decent move south of the fifth day moving average and the one day moving average in these price areas here of around $118.40, will we then be looking to concern that we actually could be in for a fairly sizeable correction, and I thought that does happen to take place, the levels to watch out for the downside will be the $117 area, or perhaps even as low as $115.54. Sterling has had a good run as well, the highest, we seem to be creating fresh $181 highs for Sterling, this is the level we're at now on the pound versus the US dollar, this is the highest level we've seen since the EU referendum vote in June 2016, so this is a classic example of an upward trend, if you draw a trend line from the lows of March last year, through the lows of August last year, there's a few occasions where the market has traded below that trend line, but it's always managed to move north of it again, we're in a solid upward trend, we're not too far off at 18 months high here, so the trend is very much at the upside, so the big psychological number to watch out for the upside will of course be 140 on the pound versus the US dollar, and move north of that, we keep looking towards 141, 142, but if you do happen to push lower, I wouldn't necessarily be, when you see me move lower, I wouldn't be surprised because of profiting, coming into the equation, if you do move to the south we could be looking at support coming to play in around the 138 level, or perhaps even down from September high at 136.59, and then even south of that, we could be looking at from the November high, we also have a price consolidation drop January as well in around the 135.48 region. Turning our attention now to the euro versus the British pound, euro sterling, I'll be covering euro sterling and then I'll be covering dollar again next, is it markets that you guys would like a different look at, please type in the chat box and I'll be happy to run through them. Excuse me, the euro versus the British pound has been in a fairly narrow trend the last few months, as you can see here, the British range bound between say 88 and 89, in my view it's a fairly important market, but for those of you who like to trade range bound markets, this is actually kind of a classic example of a market which is really struggling to get north of 89, but it's also whenever it's dipped down towards zero spot 88, has found decent buying support, so if you're interested in trading range bound markets, this can potentially be one to look at, but obviously if the market moves outside those parameters beyond that range, then you can actually, it's often common to see a decent move in whatever that that direction is, be it north of 89, we could be looking quickly moving to 90, or if it breaks south of 88, we could be looking at moving very quickly towards 87, so we're trading pretty much just about on maturity moving average, we have seen a lot of consolidation in around there, while we remain north of zero spot 88, I suspect we're going to be remained range bound, not very much far north of zero spot 89, you'd really want to take out zero spot 89, 29, a decent move beyond that, actually kind of be confident that this range bound move is over, and if you do move north of that, we can maybe look towards 90, and then beyond that again up towards 90, 50, move to the downside, if you have a decent conservative move south of zero spot 88, we could be looking to the mid-december low of zero spot 87, 60, and at that level it's taken out, we could be heading down towards the low of December, which is also a multi-month low on the Eurodollar, which is probably a low for about five months of zero spot 86, 89, like I was saying, I was just coming up to do the Eurodollar now, as any markets you're likely, sorry, the dollar yen at dirty markets, you would like me to have a quick look at, please feel free to shout out and have a look at those. So if you take a look here at the US dollar versus the Japanese yen, only last week we managed to hit its lowest level since September, so we're talking about a four-month low to the downside, on the US dollar versus the Japanese yen, so on a market, you kind of think of yourself the bias into the downside, hit a four-month low, the first kind of alarm bells that are ringing our the bias is to the downside, we have managed to bounce back from there, we haven't really gotten back the worth of the 111 price yet, if you look at the actual price, actually we can see it, after hitting that four-month low, it pushed higher and it's been kind of grinding lower ever since, so we could be looking at another retest of one 10, 19, spot 19, which was the recent low, and if you go south of one 10, spot 19, we could be looking back towards the September low of 109, 55, and then if you go south of that, we could be looking back down towards 108, and then beyond that, the September low of 107, 32. But while we remain south of the maturity moving average, which comes into play in around 111, spot 72, I suspect the outlook for the US dollar versus the Japanese yen is going to remain negative, but if you do manage to have a decent move north of the tourney moving average, we could be looking at heading up towards these highs, you know, from December and early January, so these highs, you really want to be taking out this level here from the early-ish to mid-December of 113.75 before you become confident at the downward trend that we've seen here throughout November, December, January has come to an end, and if you do head south of 113.75, we could be looking at heading back up, testing the November high of 114.73. Like I said, if there are any markets you want me to cover, please feel free to shout out, and I'll give you a quick rundown of any kind of country, what's going on in very different markets. In the meantime, what I'll do is I want to talk to you about the webinar tonight, Trader Development Programme Part 3, the Trader's Mindset. It begins tonight, Monday to 22nd of January at 1900 GMT, 7 p.m. UK time. Also, this week we have another webinar, Five Reasons to Trade the Trend. I like to trade the trend myself, and it's something that my view is trends are tend to be fairly obvious, put it that way, look at the dial, look at the S&P, it's a subtle upward trend, like the price of oil, and this is going to be quite a good webinar on how to actually spot trends and actually more importantly, how to trade the trends. That webinar is on Wednesday, 24th of January, this Wednesday at 7.30 p.m. UK time, 1930 GMT, and of course next Monday, this day week, I'll be back in the hot seat at 12.15 doing our Monday weekly webinar. While I also have you in the line, I just want to point out our news and analysis. If you go to our home page, you will see that we have the other news and analysis section. Some of the analysis that myself and my colleagues on the Market Analyst team in London and around the world upload to this website, gives you a breakdown of the very different updates that we do throughout the day. Now obviously, there's no investment advice in this, but we do talk about the major news, and sometimes talk about potential prices that are worth keeping in our forum, and also talk about the very different events that are due out in the next 24 hours. So if you feel free to kind of read through those, we talk about the highlights throughout the training session. It's updated several times throughout the day. Now some of the updates that we do get uploaded to the website itself, the news and analysis section, while others actually come directly on the training platform under what's called Market Insights. And the final Market Insights, if you click on the Market Pulse, click on Market Pulse, third or fourth, second option down is the Market Insights. Several times a day, we will be updating both economic data and some of the updates that we do get posted to that section as well. And any, any, like today's webinar was advertised on the Insights section, and the video of today's webinar will also be found on that in about an hour of time. And one last thing I do want to show you is the chart forum. The chart forum here is basically a quick update. It can be found on the Market Pulse, third option down, chart forum. It's essentially a place where by the analysts updated on a daily basis, but also yourself, the customer, the client can also, can write you down, got a thoughts and comments on various different markets. On the chart forum, for example, if you just, it's a, it's a screenshot of a particular chart and a few words written about it as, and I mentioned a couple of potentially important prices to keep an eye for. So the most recent one that I've done this morning was on the Caddo, the, the, the company which I mentioned in the webinar itself. I just talked about the price action of a Caddo. This is the chart that I screenshot of and just talk about how it's at its highest level since July 2015. Third during the decade or in the best direction the Rack of Scots set was clearly bullish and discusses a couple of potential price levels whereby it could target five pounds a share or if you see support, it could potentially pull back to four pounds and two pence or four pounds and three pence. So please feel free to keep an eye and also contribute to the chart forums itself. Now seeing as you guys have actually don't refer to your questions and comments I do want to thank you for your time today and please sign up to future webinars. Have a good trading week and good luck.