 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We've got some fun non-conference action coming up this week across college football in week number three We're gonna break down those big games Let you know where we are seeing some value for this week by talking to dr. Ed fang of the power ink dot com Welcome on into covering the spread. My name is Jim Sotis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here As I am every Wednesday by dr. Ed fang You can find him on Twitter at the powering check out his work at the powering com and on the football analytics show and Week number three. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty well. It seemed like a non-interesting slate of college football last week, but it turned out to be anything Lacking of interest with the just the number of crazy games that happened. I got home from a youth soccer game and Relaxed to a little bit of Alabama in Texas relaxed. How can you relax to that? Well, that was so much fun Yeah, you kind of knew that Alabama was probably gonna pull it out. Yeah But it was I don't know. I mean, I don't have any stress watching, you know, I Thought it was kind of nice that Texas showed up to play at home and and gave them the game Kind of ended like I thought it would I think if I would have really been fired up I would have been pretty mad when the refs kind of missed the holding as Bryce Young scooted by his left tackle In the fourth quarter of that game. I don't know. I just wasn't worked up about it. Yeah I wasn't like worked up in terms of like Being like stress I was just like having fun and like I can't like relax I'm having as much fun as I was having watching that game part of it was like So I was at a fandal event and one of the people who was there was Nate Robinson like the old Knicks player the guy won That's the six-foot guy won like a bunch a couple dunk contests He played college football and I did not know this. He was like a corner. Yeah, and I had no idea about that So like listening to him talk about the games. I was like, oh, this is absurdly insightful Like yeah, we should have you talk college football on a thing because he was like he was like super super informed You know watching it with like a bunch of people who like love sports betting was enjoyable I got to distract myself from the Northwestern fumble at the goal line in that Duke game. So it was a lot of fun Like you said kind of felt inevitable that Alabama would come back and wind up winning that game But the path to get there was a delight. I thought Yeah, I also thought it was kind of inevitable that Russell Wilson would march the Denver Broncos down The field for a game winning field goal, but that didn't happen and now that was very strange I was sitting there trying to prep for a podcast with Rob Pizzola the next day Just expecting Russell to get them in the field goal territory and then oops his coach actually thinks they are in field goal territory, right? Oh, yeah, big shocker. He missed the 64-yard field goal. Yeah, just I Don't know. I it's been a couple days. I think I'm not quite as in shock, but I think all of Tuesday I was still in shock and appalled by what had happened in that Monday night game Nathaniel Hackett's first game as a head coach not not what you want to do there Well, I know the hack it was not there last year but that's the decision you make if your quarterback is Drew Lock or a Teddy Bridgewater not if it's Russell Wilson who is actually playing pretty well in that entire game like his efficiency numbers for the game were very good and To not trust him to get you five yards or not think that He the odds of getting that are better than the odds of nailing a 64-yard field goal very odd He did admit that he made the wrong choice. So I guess self-awareness, but maybe make the right choice the first time I mean, if you're gonna kick the field goal like call a timeout earlier, right? Don't let the clock or kick the field goal and give yourself three timeouts to Stop them and get the ball back in case you miss, right? It didn't make a lot of sense. I was watching I don't watch the manning cast in real time because I prefer I like play but especially if it's Joe Buck I like having play-by-play guys personally, you know resistance So I don't watch the manning cast in real time, but I watched like a replay and they have like Shannon Sharpe on he's like screaming What are you doing? Like he was confused about why the field goal team was coming out I thought that he had like a yard of drawing and stuff like that and It was pretty wild again with how Russell was playing just an odd decision across the board Yeah, it was very odd a lot of people have been studying these efficiency numbers and you know, he was decent You know people talked about EPA per pass play You know bite by success rate. He was about league average They're about 43% in the pass offense So I didn't think you know, they got a lot of bump from from the long touchdown. So I've found that passing success rate is the most sticky stack going forward I'm not saying that Denver's a pass offense is gonna be bad right anything from it I'm just saying that it was more of a league average performance and They still need to show that they can do better But we actually get back to to college football, right cuz then Marshall goes in and beats Notre Dame Yeah, and now I'm starting to get jacked up because I called Notre Dame overrated this preseason But that it's all it's almost impossible for them to climb back up to fifth in the nation after starting 0 and 2 No, there's no shot So so that was pretty fun. Yeah, and then I went to the Michigan game. How you did which was wet Yeah, yeah, that was a lot of fun and obviously I didn't stay past for the first half when they were Up 42 to nothing. Did you lay the 51? No No, and I actually thought the other side was probably the right side just because It that all depends on who plays in the second half for Michigan and you know Not surprising and not surprisingly they weren't as good and actually came back to where it was not good He got a couple drives in that game And I think cemented his spot as the backup JJ McCarthy looked pretty good Not surprising at all that he's gonna get on the start and and probably has the position until further notice and Michigan doesn't really have They play Yukon, which is kind of funny and then they get Maryland in In conference, which doesn't seem particularly difficult and then they have to go to Iowa at some point soon Which at the beginning of the season seemed like a very difficult road trip It's not seeming like as difficult a road trip. Yeah, so it's hard to go to Iowa City So we'll see did you get back to the Michigan game in time to watch your USC bet win? Stanford tried to get that backdoor cover You know unsuccessful like your 3-0. Did you get back in time to watch that game? I I did not because I flipped on Nebraska. Oh, I watch that too. Yeah, we're just southern and Yeah poor Scott Frost just just couldn't get it done. They decided to fire him Now as opposed to waiting two weeks and saving themselves 7.5 million dollars Which kind of seems like a like an on tilt kind of decision I'm guessing both some donors pitched in to get that done ahead of time, but It just seems like it was I'm tilting right now and I'm gonna do this regardless of consequences kind of thing but I mean it was the What was the the the quarterback for Georgia side of his nickname was like the ginger general or something like that If you get defeated by a person's nickname is the ginger general I think you kind of got to go at that point. Yeah Yeah, of course and then at some point later that night. I was like, oh I've stayed being Texas A&M. That's kind of a big deal. Yeah So now they get college game day at AppState What's yeah, so an incredible yeah an incredible week of college football Absolutely, and hopefully this week and kind of duplicate that where it's not the the most dazzling slate by any means But there are some fun games We're gonna break down those games Let you know what Ed's numbers are saying about them and get you set for week number three in just one second The first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course have daily shows here every week on the covering the spread podcast We tomorrow we'll talk with Ryan Williams about week two in the NFL now on Friday JJ Zachary's things by to talk about some player props. I put my week two thoughts out there yesterday on the show on Tuesday Breaking down my models initial read on the games some games I was okay betting and some where I was monitoring and holding off to potentially bet on them later on get all that by Subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Also, Fan Duel has an all-new mobile gaming app Fan Duel face-off Fan Duel face-off is where you competing quick fun games against other real people for real cash It is all sorts of games you're familiar with like home run derby wheel of fortune Puzzle and strategy games and Pat McAfee's kicking game contests are action-packed and last between two to five minutes So you can play in your couch waiting in line during commercial break wherever and went over on your schedule Plus you can practice for free anytime whether it be head-to-head multiplayer or large tournaments Fan Duel face-off has something for you plus in most contests You'll be matched against players of similar skill level So you're never totally overmatched even as a beginner face-off is also tied to your fan dual account and wallet So you can easily use your daily fantasy funds or sports back book winnings in the app visit fan duel dot com Slash face-off or download the Fan Duel face-off app in the Apple App Store today to get in the game age and location restricts Supply void or prohibited see Fan Duel dot com slash face-off dash terms for terms and conditions now before we dive into the actual games For this weekend. I didn't want to talk to you about your model You can talk to a bit about how you've shifted in the past couple years to a model that updates more quickly reacts more quickly To new data, but we're only two games in potentially three games in for most teams So how how reactive are your numbers to what we've seen so far in a very small sample this year? It tends to be pretty reactive and I found that to be the right thing to do It sometimes doesn't react enough and we'll talk about that in a couple of these games And sometimes it doesn't react as much as the markets do and we'll talk about that in relation to another game this week You know, I've been talking to some other people that do college football numbers and trying to gauge how my adjustments are doing and Half of them should probably be too aggressive the moves and half of them should probably not be aggressive enough So you're trying to kind of split the difference and hopefully overall on average you're doing better than what the markets are doing and you know, I think I have it about right and You know, obviously, it's not perfect because you want to react more on some teams sure and You know everything is automated for what I do and what I'm going to talk about today Everything probably shouldn't be automated. There probably should be a little bit more manual adjustments. I think the best example of that is Hawaii So Vandy goes in and beats them the first game of the season. Vandy hasn't looked that good since and Usually, you know, the adjustments that I make are symmetric and maybe they shouldn't be You know, maybe you should adjust Hawaii down more and maybe Vandy not as much in a game like that Either way, it's still hard to get to a spread like You know Michigan minus 51 and a half or 52. Yeah against Hawaii, which you know and and Michigan and cover mostly because they pulled the starting quarterback, but I Think in the future, you know, it could it could come down to some more manual adjustments You know more adjustments for injuries of key players and things like that But right now everything's automated and I'm hoping to do the best on average. I think the one of the key things though is that Once you see what your numbers say you can add in your own judgment You can kind of have an eye test and have a feel for am I overreacting or underreacting this? So it's kind of like a two-layered approach where you have what your number says and then you can go in yourself Obviously, you can't you know do that for every recommendation giving out across all of college football But when you're making your own personal bets and going based off of your own model You have that second layer of judgment that says I think this is in the 50% That's overreacting or 50% that's underreacting and hopefully that the combination of those two Will allow you to make the right decisions based off the data That's the hope Absolutely, we'll hope to get it right today So let's dive in and start things off here with Penn State at Auburn Penn State is a three and a half point favorite here Total is 47 and a half Auburn Coming off I would say an underwhelming performance against San Jose State They did get the win but did not cover can they cover here as home underdogs against Penn State this week I Think they absolutely can cover. I I'm not going to bet Auburn plus three and a half even though That's what my numbers say. I have Penn State winning by about a half point I'm just really cautious about this Auburn team. I'm not sure that they're very good. They you know, TJ Finley is the quarterback hasn't particularly done much and You know, my numbers have got downgraded them significantly You know a bunch this season already But in particular based on the San Jose State performance last week When I look at Penn State, I I gotta think as long as Shawn Clifford's healthy They're a pretty good football team Franklin has run a pretty solid program Especially the years going through the 2019 season, you know Pretty solid top 10 program a team that would not necessarily top of Ohio State But you know through 2019 they did more than Michigan did and and those were like two on average top 10 borderline top 10 programs hasn't really You know, it hasn't really been the same for Franklin since then but you know, there was kind of the weird COVID year where You know, they I think they started like one and four last year was Pretty good until they lost Clifford and then the offense just just went in the tank So, you know Clifford's been fine You know, their stats weren't as good against Purdue on the road in that opening game But they still got the job done towards the end of that game They were able to win a one-score game something that Scott Frost was completely unable to do and You know bucked every law every every law of regression Known to analytics there I guess I just think Penn State's pretty good team Even though they are on a road in a tough environment So I'm gonna stay away even though my numbers like Auburn here Okay, so you're showing value in Auburn, but staying away from it I think that makes sense based on the reasons you laid out. Let's talk about another big 10 team here Michigan State is at Washington. This is a three and a half point spread in Washington's favor total is 56 and a half Michigan State the team that we talked about preseason where your numbers are skeptical of them and We're talking about their win total and stuff like that But we've got two games of data now. Have they done anything to alter that outlook? Or is a situation where you're still skeptical and potentially betting against in here versus Washington I'm still skeptical about Michigan State They haven't really done anything for or against, you know, kind of their Perception preseason and I think my perception preseason was probably a little bit lower than what the markets and what certainly popular Opinion is, you know, I'm not gonna pass much judgment on them yet but I actually really like this Washington team and The main reason is Michael Pentax Jr. The quarterback He was a transfer from Indiana and you have to remember in 2019 When he was the Indiana quarterback Indiana was 17th when I look at my adjusted passing success rate. They had a very efficient passing offense they were never really able to Replicate that they had a pretty good 2020 and the COVID year they're often but their pass offense numbers weren't good Like I don't know if you remember but he had that like, you know That stretch in that one game that opening game that they won and they kind of had this magical season where they won a lot of games But probably more games and then they should have They weren't quite as good and then last season Pentax got hurt Then he decided to transfer He won the job here at Washington and I don't know. I mean I saw him play in their opener. He looked really good He's left-handed. He throws a really pretty ball and He could be just the piece that they need and I've already adjusted Washington up almost three points this year based on the performance so far That might not be enough and Pentax is the reason why So I have Washington by a point and a half in this game. I think that's well I think that's low and I would I would certainly not bet in Michigan State plus three and a half here and So, yeah, thank you Jim for picking two games that my number is a fine value and I completely disagree They are they are going Well, I'm sitting on on my show yesterday, you know looking at NFL stuff for this week It's a lot of situations on like I was showing value in the Jets and that number did move in my favor But I wasn't gonna bet that like I don't I saw Joe Flacco Sunday. I don't want money tied to that I don't want money tied to jacobie percent either. So I get where you're coming from, you know We disagree with our models pretty often, but that's that's a lot of it. It's just a baseline and then we can deviate in there Yeah, you know, you know in this game. There's a couple key injuries Washington as an offensive tackle with NFL caliber talent that is listed as questionable Jalen Reed the wide receiver from Michigan State Is also dealing with an injury to pretty important players So something to keep an eye on if you are betting on this game. It seems like a penix. It's always been if he's healthy he's gonna play well and He's healthy right now. So I feel like your enthusiasm is justified. Yeah Well, he was healthy in 2020 and the past offense wasn't spectacular, right? So but I do think there's a high ceiling there We saw it in 2019 and we may see it again This season. Yeah, I I'd be he's a fun guy to watch. So I'd love to see that Yeah, exactly. It's like, you know, there's a there's a couple of quarterbacks out there that you just enjoy watching them throw the ball Dishon Watson's one for me But Michael penix is another one. Yeah, so hopefully you can stay healthy and we'll see what he could do versus Michigan State Let's finish up here with the game-by-game breakdowns with Miami at Texas A&M Texas A&M Still a five-and-a-half point favorite here totals 45 and a half and Texas A&M obviously coming off the loss to Appalachian State Do you see a bounce back here potentially a cover? What are you seeing with this one? I really don't know. I mean, how can you start a quarterback in Haynes King that threw 97 yards passing against an App State defense that just got completely shredded by North Carolina I don't understand that like I don't understand how I don't know. I mean, obviously you don't want to react too much and Jimbo Fisher sees these guys way more But that's pitiful, right? It's not like App State got shredded by Ohio State the week before It's not like they got shredded by USC. They got shredded by North Carolina And then your quarterback goes out and throws for 97 like can't even get to triple digits That that has to be really concerning, you know, maybe it's a fluke and they come back and You know actually score some points in this game Texas A&M is obviously a program with an immense amount of talent and there's no doubt about that at all You know, I remember talking Phil still before the beginning of last season And he really liked Texas A&M and I was like, well, what about the quarterback? He's like, well, yeah, they still got to figure things out and I feel like we're in the exact same position They have an immense amount of talent at every position on the football field except for the most important one so Yeah, I don't really know what to think, you know, my numbers have Texas A&M by about four points in this game it's suggesting Value on Miami. I think that is the right side I think Miami has shown some promise and they certainly have the quarterback in van dyke that has looked pretty good You know trying to figure out what what we're going to see with this mario crystal ball program I do feel like that is the right side. I'm not particularly excited about this game Yeah But that that's what my numbers say well last year we had drew martin on before the season and we asked him, you know, okay We know who the title contenders are Is anyone who stands out to use being like a long shot? He named Texas A&M and obviously Didn't pan out but they showed upside like they showed in individual games They can't spike if they get the good play, but it's so hard to know Whether they'll get that so it kind of feels like A&M's more of a team You want to bet in a volatile market versus a spread because you want to take advantage of their volatility take advantage of their upside versus subjecting yourself to 97 passing yards against ap state Yeah, for sure Yeah, so maybe one of their dog at alabama or something like that and obviously they did knock off alabama last year. So Um, I don't know man. I mean, I gotta think jimbo has a short hook at the quarterback position You would think we'll see about that. I mean, right So let's move into your week three best bet said we're gonna open up the entire board here When you look at your numbers, we're using the best value that you buy into for week number three Right. So we talked a little bit about how my model probably should have moved a little bit more strongly On washington and the markets have moved a little more strongly. So we're actually seeing the opposite with notar dame Um, so I would have made a notar dame about 18 point favorite Well, I would have made notar dame 18 point favorite Over cal this pre season. Uh, I'm still making them an 18 point favorite in this game Even though I've downgraded notar dame and I've also downgraded cal. Obviously. That's what that means and The markets, uh, probably would have made this 20 points if it would have been played before last week And now they're down to 11 11 and a half I don't I don't know what the number is at fan duel, but I certainly bet this at 11 and a half and There there are some factors going on here tyler balkner the the quarterback is is hurt And so you're going to start drew drew pine no dames going to start drew pine in this game And that's a little bit of a downgrade in terms of you know the the running ability But i'm not sure the offense really goes that far downhill Um, I I think they should be just fine cal is a program that's known for defense under justin wilcox but the numbers weren't particularly good last year when I look at my adjusted success rate, so You know cal's going into notar dame and the reason notar dame last last week is because the The defense stunk, you know, they they allowed marshal to to score a bunch It also didn't help that marshal scored on a pick six but um The notar dame defense was pretty good against ohio state in the first game of the year It's the unit that we expect to be good marcus freeman was the defensive coordinator took over as the head coach And I just think it was a fluke that notar dame defense played bad. They should get back to Playing a lot better this week. They should be a little bit angry I like notar dame minus 11 and a half. My only worry is if this gets into a huge slugfest With a total of like 25 points. It's going to be hard to cover 11 and a half that way, but You know, like I said, my numbers see, uh, you know have notar dame by almost 18 in this game I think it's an overreaction to to one game with notar dame Remember, this is a team that I thought was overrated heading into the preseason But remember that was because the preseason pole had notar dame at fifth This is still a top 20 team mostly led by the defensive side of the ball And uh, I think there's a lot of value here Uh, the spread at fandall sports book is 10 and a half. Uh, it's at minus 1114 though The alternate spread on minus 11 half is minus 106 Uh, and obviously not massively key numbers in that area So it does sound like it's pretty much in line with what you were getting Uh getting that at 11 and a half With that being 10 and a half, do you think we'll continue to see Movements in favor of the cal side of this where you may want to hold off or Is this a a big enough value where you want to lock it in now and not put yourself at risk should things Shift any more towards the cal side Yeah, I really don't know Yeah, I think there's a good argument that it's going to be hard to cover 11 when the total is 41 And I'm not sure I don't think that total is going to stay at 41. Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked at all forgot below 40 So I think there's a good argument there. Uh So I don't know if it's going to move necessarily I mean, I think it should I think it should move towards towards another name. We'll see what happens before for kickoff um Yeah, so actually maybe maybe the answer to that question is yes lock it in now because it probably should move towards another name Okay, so 10 and a half is a number at fan dual sports book Notre Dame at uh calling them overrated before the year But now we are back in the markets have reacted to the point where they're suddenly in value So Notre Dame minus 10 and a half we'll see if ad can continue His little streak here and get to four consecutive wins of bets recommended here on the show That's all we got here for this week on covering the spread on the college football side of things But that obviously you're doing a lot of stuff outside of just college football Over the power rank and the football analytics show. What is going on for you there? I had rob zola of the hammer on the football analytics show. So rob is obviously uh True nfl betting expert and uh ova's look to get his advice And he just started a new sports betting media company called the hammer We talked about that we talked about his motivations. We talked about a lot of teams So yeah, check that out on the football analytics show wherever, uh, you get your uh podcast and then I write a free sports betting email newsletter I write about games that I bet and then we also do seven nugget saturday I guess it's not we anymore because everybody you guys used to help me with that Yeah, he went out and got a job. How rude how dare he get a job with next gen stats gosh Oh, I mean, you know some some company called the nfl Some dream job come on Good for him. That's good. So we uh, so edward was uh, well, we worked together on it. Yeah, and it was seven nuggets saturday and um I think a lot of people like it, you know, it's like you don't have to be invested in every single nugget but there's some good stuff there in terms of bets and insights and and uh So we went back out into five nuggets for one week the first week I took over But uh, we we were actually back up to seven nuggets for this past week and we're going to keep it there We I keep saying we I'm going to keep it there hopefully finding some help from some people And um, yeah, you know, it's just it's I I try I try to make an easy way to get in and out We have an injury report in there now. It's football season So you can keep an eye on those types of things, you know that zack wilson's not coming back for a couple weeks Um, you know that actually that ankle injury Last week, even though we play and now he's hurt again, but Not necessarily not not going on the injured reserve list So things like that things um, I try to You know talk about bets that other people make um that I believe in so yeah anyways Check that out at the powerink.com the free sports betting email newsletter You can get that there and then again Like you said the rapazola interview over on the football analytics show Which you can get wherever you get your podcast ed is on twitter at the powerink I am on twitter at jim sonnis make sure once again You are subscribed to the covering and the spread podcast feed tomorrow NFL preview with ryan williams player prop betting preview coming up on friday big Thank you once again to ed for swinging by and breaking down college football week number three We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network