 Welcome to Digital Asset News. I'm Dan for short. My name is Rob and today I just want to talk to you about a little thought experiment, which is what would happen if I stopped dollar cost averaging or DCing into crypto. I think it's a question that you might ask yourself if you have dollar cost average in the past, but it's just something to take a look at and see where it could potentially lead to. So we'll do a couple of examples. We'll do a Bitcoin example, Ethereum Cardano example, and then also we'll take a look at something that we talked about yesterday as far as capitulation and we're headed for, I think, some more pain. So why not just try that out? Another variant we'll do a little quick Q&A because it is Sunday. So everybody, thanks for stopping by. I appreciate it. It is a Sunday, 145 beautiful day here in Puerto Rico and here's what I was taking a look at this morning. I thought to myself, Rob, what is the point of keeping dollar cost average when there's a lot of different indicators which say that we could have a lot more pain coming up? So why not just wait and try to time things a little better just to let it just breathe? And the answer is that I could do that. And of course on this channel, I can't tell you what to do. I'm only telling you the things that I do. You have to make your own decisions because this is not financial advice and I'm not your dad. You can do whatever you want to do. So I thought about this myself. I go, this might be a good time just to stop because I think there's some, you know, a little bit more pain coming in. So we take a look at the Bitcoin price today, 16.5. All right. Remember in June when everybody was calling for the bottom? And I got to tell you, there was a lot of indicators that stated that, yes, it was the bottom. There were more indicators that said that the bottom was in, then we would keep going lower. And that is just the truth. It's just that it just didn't seem right, especially for the macro events and things that were going on to me personally. And of course, didn't happen, didn't work out. There was more contagion, FTX collapsed, which was the big thing. And now we're having even more contagion as places like Genesis and BlockFi and things like that continue to go under, which I think could potentially lead to more of a problem. However, that's not the point today. The point today is to take a look at what exactly would happen. So here's the example I was thinking about, which was this, I took a look back roughly when I started to get into the space around November, 2017. And this is around around the time when I thought to myself, huh, there's this thing called Bitcoin keeps going up. I like, I like money. I like when things go up. So maybe I should take a look at it. And of course, I kind of noticed that was going on, but not really. All they really cared about was the number one up. So I would just, you know, put in a bunch of money here, a bunch of money there. Before you know it, we were at the top and I felt like a genius. Of course, it, you know, goes back down. So then I started to learn about this thing right around in March or so. Nah, maybe like February, you know, to probably think about what's called dollar cross average. I didn't even know what that existed until 2018. And then I said, okay, well, I'll get into that. So looking back, not knowing about indicators and some very basic things you can take a look at looking to Bitcoin being one of them, Ben's website and the crypto diverse being second and just basic things that are out there. I started to accumulate around roughly around here back in the saddle, about 10,000. Okay, well, we're 50% down. That's pretty sweet. You know, that's pretty good. Excuse me. Sorry. And then of course, we came around here and I thought, well, you know, as it started to go from 10,000 to 6,000, I thought, well, that's got to be the bottom. So I started to dollar cross average even more. And then, of course, it went up, I felt like a genius come out here and didn't take any profits. And then of course, right around here, which I think is very interesting, you know, I'm a big believer in cycles. I just find it interesting that see this right here, when we hit 6,500 after this point here, I didn't take any profits, of course, I thought to myself, Mike, okay, this has got to be the bottom because we've been in the bottom for quite some time. We're just moving sideways. And then right around November 10th, 11th, some around there, 13th, which almost around the same time. And the same point in the four year cycles. Remember, four year cycles in 2016, we had a we had a having just like in 2012, we had a having 2017, we had an all time high, just like in 2013, we had a whole time high. And just, and then of course, 2018 is when we had the low. Same thing here in our cycle, 2020 was the having 2021 was the all time high 2022, maybe the low I can't I'm not sure. But around the same time 2022, we were going along just fine, right? Excuse me, a little over 20,000. And of course, then we dropped out of 16,000 over here, went from 6,300, 6,400, dropped about 50% and down here. So I thought to myself, is this the time that I should have stopped? And if I take a look back and actually, this is this is a website called DCA dash CC.com. There's a link in the website in the description where you can put in all the numbers that you want to, you can do lump sums now, which is pretty cool. And you can just extrapolate that to see where we're at. So let me not in September, because I started around that's not right. I started around March, March, we'll say March for 2018. And I wasn't put, let's just say 25 bucks. I was putting a little more let's just say 25 bucks per week, you can mess around with the parameters and put different cryptos in there. And let's calculate that out. So if we look at the whole everything on a continuum, right, you can see that the value in fiat was 90, around 9,143. If I had just put in $25 in per week, for the last 19, 25 years or so. So you're like, well, I mean, that's, that's not too bad. If we take a look over here, the balance in fiat is $9,100. So that's how much you'd have as far as Bitcoin. A total investment was $6,150. I don't know about you. But to me, that's not that great. If I look at it like this, because me personally, I'm like, wow, I've only made $3,000 in five years. That's a kind of a, not the greatest thing of all time. So again, I think myself, well, why don't I just kind of stop and just move from there. But again, if you roll yourself back to here, at the, at the top, you would invest $4,100 as of April 15, 2021. $4,000, you would have been up $32,000. What is that? Like 6x somewhere around there? No, 7x, 8x, about 8x, somewhere around there. But here's the thing, you will never time the top. Unless, of course, of course, someone's going to put in here the comment section of the person, or the persons who called the top, I'm sure they're awesome. But guess what? You're not going to listen to them. You're going to not, you're not going to hit it. I mean, maybe you will, but the chance are pretty low. I hope you do. That'd be great. But maybe you'll hit it around here as it starts to slide down. So around 2021, if you would have sold the $4,200, you would have $26,000 and so on and so forth. So in all honesty, the only way this works is if you would have dollar cost average and actually took some profits along the way and then started to reaccumulate. So here's the next big question then. So if I'm doing this, right? And let's just say that around here, let's just say that I'm just tired of it. 2018, I'm tired and I'm like, no, I don't really want to do this. And then I just kind of step out. I step out for a while. I don't, I don't dollar cost average at all. Just kind of let it go. And let's just say that I just wait for things to pivot. And I see when things are actually going to look pretty good for me. How will I know that? I'll never know that. So I could have, in all honesty, just waited for, I could have come up here. Let's just take June 2019. Let's do that. Let's say in June 2019, because I'm like, no, this isn't a good time. Let's take June 2019. Let's just say I want to start at that point. I just stopped DCing because I'm like, what's the point? We're going to see more pain. I don't really get the whole point. So on June 1, 2019, I'll take a look at this. I'm like, okay, well, 25 bucks a week. So in June 2019, if I were to cash out at the tippy, tippy top, I would have made $13,000, almost $14,000. My investment move in $2,500, which is pretty good. Let's be honest. But you won't hit the top. You'll probably hit it around somewhere around here, maybe somewhere around here. So you would have invested $2,600, maybe around $9,000. So what is that? 4x? No, it's not even 4x. It's like 3x. And then that's only if you would have done it near the top, right? Maybe over here, maybe you would have caught it right around here. Maybe you would have 3.5x or something like that. See, the thing is, but dollar cost averaging, it sucks. It sucks to do. And it only works for me. I don't know about you, but it only works for me when there's like maximum pain, even if I would have screwed up, which I kind of did. And I just would have come back here and just said, you know what? The hell with it. There's way too much pain going on. I see some more dips. I don't want to deal with this. I'm just going to wait till it's like the absolute bottom, which is never time the bottom, right? You just miss out on time. And that's I think the most important thing. So for me, it's the most important thing for a lot of people like, but Rob, you don't understand what I'll do is I'll wait till the absolute bottom or near the bottom. And I'll just put a bunch of money into it. You can do that. But again, it's very tough. It's very tough because when the fear and great index and it makes, when you're going through this, I don't know if this is your first bear market or not, but when you're going through this, it's very tough when you're not buying things just to wait and wait and wait because you always think the next leg is the next one down. Like you can say, well, Bitcoin went from 20 to 17,000. So I know it's going to go from 17 to 15. And then when it hits 15, you're like, you know what? It already went to 15. So maybe go to 13 or 12. And then before you know it, you're just kind of waiting, waiting, you're on the sidelines a little bit too long. So for me, it doesn't work for me. But that's what that's the beauty of investing, right? Because you're not me. And my goals aren't your goals. So for you, you can be like, Rob, you're an idiot. I can definitely do this thing. I can time it the right way or near the right way. And I can, you know, put a bunch of money in. But for me, it just doesn't work like that. And that's just how I see things as far as dollar cost averaging. So I'm not going to stop massively. Well, first of all, I've already stopped dollar cost averaging massively. I think that's not a great strategy for me. I think to myself, there's more pain coming. I'm going to micro DCA. I should stop, you know, probably be a good idea to stop for a little bit and then kind of get back into it. But I think, well, if I'm going to be here on a large continuum of a time horizon, then what's the problem? I mean, if I get in and, you know, let's say in three years, four years, Bitcoin goes back to its all-time high, let's just say 60, almost $70,000. And I was buying all this time, I'm going to buy a little bit higher, but I'll probably buy a little bit lower because I'm going to keep buying every single week like I've always done. And I'll probably hit at some point the lows. I could probably hit the absolute low if I buy every week. I mean, pretty close to it. That's just how I see things. Now, that's just the example for Bitcoin. Now, let's take a look real quick of Ethereum. So same thing with Ethereum, right? Let's say, this is about the same thing, back to the DCA investment, we're going to take Bitcoin, we're going to move to Ethereum. I love this site. Same thing, $25 a week, starting in June. Now, let's go back. I don't know if it'll let me do it though, because I've already used the free calculations. You can only do five a day, I think. Let's say March, 2019. That's a bummer, or take a break. Well, let's see what the prices are, $450 for seven days, that's not bad. Let's do this. Sorry, DCA, I'm going to have to cheat a little bit. Let me switch a little, switch a Rue. So let's do this again. So Bitcoin, Ethereum, let's put a whopping $25. Let's go March, first, 2018, I accept. So same thing here. So I'm just putting $125 bucks in a week, nothing big. And well, for some people, it's big. I mean, it's just the truth. So in here, again, the same thing, I can do this on in March. I can go all the way here. And remember, if I'm doing these things, and I'm buying here, you're not going to be able to see this, sorry. But you're buying Ethereum at essentially, gosh, $134, 175, 102, $98 along this continuum. That's a lot. So as you get over here, this looks pretty nice. You've invested $4,200. And of course, your balance is $67,000. If you get the top, you won't. But on May 27th, actually, shoot, it doesn't really matter. Let's say you just screw up and just go, well, good enough. I'll do it in June. You just spent $4,000, make $34,000, again, which is promised at the top of Bitcoin, and so on and so forth, even over here. Invest $5,000, get $62,000. And again, the only way this works, the only way this works for me, is if I stick it out and just go, I don't know when the bottom is. I just don't. And sometimes it isn't a theory, I think when you've got a lot of people who you trust, and they tell you that the bottom is in, and then all of a sudden the bottom is not in, you're like, what the hell happened? It's just because people get sucked into the indicators and things, and they really put a lot of faith into it. But no one will ever really know, because there's so many things that are out there. So that's just Ethereum. Now, let's take a look at another example. Let's take a look at Cardano. So again, Cardano had a pretty bumpy road. And I could have put $25 bucks in a week, from March 1st to November 2022. I think it already calculated. But here we go. So again, over here, if I hit the tippy-tippy top, I would have put in $4,600 and made $167,000. Again, you won't hit the top, but maybe you get $112,000 for the $5,000 investment. Let's back it up, though. Let's say I don't want to deal with all of this, because there's a 50% reduction on or around November 2018. That's too much pain. I don't want to deal with that. And a lot of different volatility. I don't care. I just want to see when things are picking back up, which was July 20. Now let's go back. June 4th, 2020. Okay. June 4th, 2020, calculate. So now, am I okay? I don't want to deal with all of this nonsense that's out there. I don't want to deal with the things that are happening. So what I'm going to do, whatever loads, is I'm going to sidestep a lot of the problems. And I'm just going to only invest when things pivot, which is not a bad strategy, because now you're just mostly in profit, which is cool. However, so around here at the tippy, tippy top, still not bad. I mean, it's about $1,500, $1,650, you'd have been $22,000. Again, you avoided all of the downturns, all of the volatility, everything else, and you're here. You won't time it right, but maybe get it right here. Roughly $2,000 you invested, and you get in $15,000. So what is that? Around a 7x, 7.5x, still not too bad. Again, it all depends on what you want to do and where you see things. But to me personally, I don't get the point of it. I mean, to correct me if I'm wrong here, you can wait and not put anything and then just go on heavy at that point. But the thing is, I think that people will start to go on heavy at some point, and that's cool, and that's great. But then the problem is, is that you never know what's around the corner. So let's say that the Fed pivots and everything's looking good. Warm Ukraine, we're all set. We're all good to go. Everything's looking good. So it's time to dump in a bunch of money. And as things are starting to take off, then all of a sudden, oh yeah, Gary Gensler comes out and he says, while we work really closely with Congress, and guess what happened? Everything's a security except Bitcoin. Everything crashes. And then for the very long time, you see your favorite project that you thought was going to make it isn't going to make it because Gary made it a security. And they can't make it because guess what? They have to register with the SEC. They have to sit in line. Also, the fact that the timeline is very long. Then they have to pay a bunch of, oh, I don't know, the fees and the problems. And also they have to pay a fine because they had an unregistered ICO. Now you got a problem. That's just one example. Now let's take it back. Everything's going good. Everything's great. Then all of a sudden, boom, we've got a problem with another contagion and there was another fraud. And who knows what it was? Let's say CZ Binance comes out and goes, you know what? Sorry, we took all your money. Or Coinbase says, you know what? We were cooking the books and there's a problem here. Now we have more contagion. Now we have more problems than things just fall about. So everything looks good over here and you're good. You're making the best decision, but then you just don't know. This is why the things I talk about for DCA, I am not smart enough to figure it all out. I do not have a crystal ball and nobody can tell you what's going to happen in the future. That's why sometimes it's like dollar cost averaging is like a superpower. It's something that you can just say, you know what? I don't know what's going to happen. But this is the best thing that I can possibly get. I got to pick the right project because if I YOLO into crypto number 1,576 because the janitor told me it was awesome, I'm going to get wrecked. So it's up to you to figure out exactly what those products are and kind of go from there. And I hope that made sense as to why I'm still going to dollar cost average just not as much and just kind of keep going in. Anyhow, let me just think about that in the comments section. And then before I move on, I would like to ask for a favor if I could be so bold, which is to if we're going to talk about these things about dollar cost averaging, that's great and cool. But you've got to know like this is at some point you're going to have to take profits, okay? Because you can listen to the people who say to diamond hands, oh, we'll live a long day and just keep it going. But didn't we just see that in the example of DCA, the DCA, the website? If you DCA didn't take anything, you're only up like 3x right now, maybe. And that's if you did it. So at some point you're going to want to take profits. And to further reiterate my point, we talked about this yesterday. This is whale shadows. This is when wallets that are dormant for between here's the four to five years, here's the five to seven years, the seven to nine is in purple, and the orange is in 10. Let me just take out all the noise. 10 year plus wallets will still move their crypto. And I'm not saying that they're selling, but if they're moving after 10 years, might be a good possibility that they're moving it to in exchange to sell. And this happened, of course, when, when the prices are pretty darn high, pretty darn high, and here's it is trying to save themselves. Again, here's seven to nine years. Guess when they start to become on dormant, when the price goes up, when the price goes up, when the price goes up, when the price goes up. So just remember this when you're thinking, should I diamond hands or not? You can. I'm just not going to. And then also about profits. I've screwed up a lot of times in the past. And I haven't taken as many profits I was supposed to. So don't take it for me solely. You got to take a look at a lot of the plethora of information out there, but I did do a video. I think it's looking pretty good so far. It's at Dante's crypto. You can also do a search for it. It's called why and when I'm selling 80% of my crypto. And if you go to Dante's crypto, the website, it's free. And you go to module three. There's two videos I highly recommend you watch. One is the 2024 or 25 bull run, which it could be that year. It could be two years from then. I don't know. But all that it's predicated on is some indicators. PyCycle Talk, NUPL, time and risk. That's a big one. MRVZ score, TURMA, Puel multiple, reserve risk. And we take a look at those and bring them over here and we extrapolate that to where we could sell. I'm not going to time the top. I'm not going to time the bottom. But if I get around 60 to 80%, I'll be pretty damn happy. And that's it. So look, the last thing I will say is, I don't want to give you like a false sense that you're going to be awesome. We talked about this issue yesterday, which we talked about, it was Bitcoin miners are in trouble. And not all of them, just some of them. We talked about how there's a default on loans, how there's a lot of rigs being shut off because the price of Bitcoin is going down. It's very hard to pay for overhead. And when that happens, you're going to see a capitulation. However, you see a big influx and hash rate as they start to really start to burn the midnight oil, I guess. And then, of course, they sell off their Bitcoin because they're like, that's it, I'm done. And then we shut things off. And when things capitulate, that's when things are a little messy. Here's the hash rate. It's already started. Again, there's a website looking at Bitcoin. You can take a look. And just yesterday, we were up here. And now we're all the way down here. That's the hash rate. Also, there's this thing called the hash ribbons indicator. And what this is is when, where is it? It's a 30-day moving average. When that drops to the 60-day, hash rate declines and miners are capitulating. And those are the orange horizontal lines. So when the 30-day moving average drops to the 60, that's when things, the prices start to drop. Here's the orange lines I talked about. Here's where it happened. The Bitcoin price, where were we? Roughly $26,000 a week before. Then it went to $20,000, $19,000, and then $19,270. So again, here's where we're at. Here's the 30-day. That's in blue. Here's the purple. It's in the 60-day. Yesterday, it was right above here. And I said, it's going to cross over. And it is right at that precipice, right there, where it's going to cross over. What does that mean? You probably see some reductions, or you might see some reductions in Bitcoin. What does that mean for me? Not much because I buy Bitcoin pretty much every day now. So it's not a big deal because I'm going to still do a cost average. Just don't know when the bottom is. And that's it for today. So look, I don't know how that took 25 minutes to explain. I'm the, sorry, I should do a better job with that. I'll do a better job next time. But that's it for today. If you like today's video, give it a thumbs up. Also consider subscribing. All the things we talk about are time sensitive, like you just took a look at. But that's it. Now we're going to do a little quick Q&A. I've got to do some things on a Sunday. But if you want to stick around, I'll answer all your questions. The best of my abilities, even if they're questions I don't want to answer. And we'll go from there. So we've got to take off, take off, enjoy the Sunday. Thank you so much. See you on the next one.