 Hey everyone welcome to this week's video update actually recording this on Saturday morning March 27th So let's jump in talk a little bit about the markets Give you an update on the day trading and then we'll go through our alerts and current positions in our portfolio To start with looking at the S&P 500 big, you know, we've last couple weeks We've seen a little bit of weakness but big rally on Thursday and Friday to put us all the way back up at All-time highs just under all-time highs. I was talking about Last week that actually right here. I was thinking we'd probably bounce from here and And go up to all-time highs but took a little bit more weakness a little bit more time But here we are right back up there. So What as I mentioned the last couple weeks, we are expecting continued higher prices So we are still carrying a little bit of short Delta in our portfolio But we're less than one-to-one on our short Delta versus our theta ratio. So So basically for every dollar of theta that we have we've got about 50 cents of short Delta and that's beta weighted to SPY so On this downside, you know, we got we did get smoked out of a couple of iron ducks this week in rut Rut saw a lot more downside than the S&P for example And so we you know, we put on one up here thinking that the market was probably gonna bounce or have a little bit Downside and we put it we had two on in here So on this big flush and that's a that's a big move from the expected move in rut That is quite a bit bigger. Remember we have our downside break even on those iron ducks at about a one standard deviation move So we saw some significant Down movement in small caps and that that's reflective of the financials as well if you look at XLF Pretty pretty big flush in in financials as well The Russell holds a lot of the smaller banks and so is even even weaker than XLF But I got a couple of questions like, you know, should we should we keep trading rut for the iron duck? You know, what you know, maybe maybe we should trade something else and the answer is no I mean rut is a an excellent vehicle for that Really any index is and we like these big European style because the expiration and because the because the high price But you know just because that had a flush the last few days. Don't let that deter you from trading it You know, you're gonna get caught in some of those We're just we're playing the probabilities over and over and the fact that we had two losers in a row and rut Has nothing to do with the fact that we should still continue to trade it, you know Obviously, I've I had some iron ducks in a personal account in NDX didn't have near as much downside I had some iron ducks and personal count in SPX didn't have near as much downside and I and I also had some in rut So, you know, it's important to spread the love around. You don't want to be loading up all in one thing just because of that reason But rut is still fine. We and we've seen more weakness here, which in turn has spiked the implied volatility So we actually added another one in here So we've got we still got a couple and we're now we're seeing a big bounce So saw a big flush on the way down and we're seeing a huge bounce on the way up, too So just remember when you're when you're trading the strategies that we teach It's all about the number of occurrences, you know, the fact, you know, one losing trade two losing trades in a row I mean you could have five ten losing trades in a row that that does not matter You've got to have the mindset of focusing on the number of occurrences over time playing the probabilities You're always gonna have strings of losers and think about that Especially when you're trading in iron ducks and you have a huge flush You know, if you look back to the corona crash We got, you know, we got smoked out of a few here as well. And that's what that's gonna happen You typically I mean if you see a big flush, you're gonna get some losses in a little bit of bunches But don't let that don't let that affect your your overall mindset for the strategy because you know most of the time you're gonna see sideways two-sided action up upward motion in the markets and so The strategy is still excellent So just keep that in mind as you're continuing to place those trades and the most important thing is if you're you know, if you're stressed out about a couple of losses of You know price pushing past our break even on an iron duck and that's you know, that's that's causing you to create a situation in your mind of You know questioning the strategy and questioning, you know, you're trading it all comes down to position size You know if you if you're trading a rut and you got smoked out and it's just too painful for you Well, then you should probably be trading IWM IWM is the exact same thing. It's just one-tenth of the size So make sure, you know, I pound this all the time position sizing is key position sizing is key So keep that in mind, you know, when you get flushes like that You're gonna have situations where you're gonna have to take some losses and that is part of the game All right, so that's the that's the S&P up at all-time highs already showed rut We're gonna at the NASDAQ NASDAQ is definitely not as strong It's definitely seen some headwinds here as you can see it's still making lower lows and has not made a another higher higher high yet, so You know NASDAQ I would expect we still continue to see You know the NASDAQ you see tech stocks stay a little bit weaker than some of the large cap value with the Dow If you take a look at Dow DIA, you can see DIA is close to all-time highs similar to the S&P We're rut and NASDAQ are staying weaker and I would expect we see something similar to that in the short term But I also want to touch on the bonds a Lot of what's driving the market right now is the bonds and interest rates So remember bonds move inversely correlated to interest rates of interest rates are going up bonds are going down We're seeing that significant Slope in bonds right now if we take a look at the Opposite side of that the ten-year treasury you can see interest rates are continuing to push and had a little pullback and Now we know we could be back up So keep your eyes on the bonds keep your eyes on the treasuries that is what's really driving the markets I mentioned this before and most people don't realize the bond market is actually about 30% larger than the stock market So there's a lot of a lot of money and when this thing starts moving. It's going to affect all asset classes All right, so that's the market before we jump into the alerts real quick update on the day trading I had a decent week total profit for the week 2006-1275 on the runners booked over 1200 on the pairs trades 655 and on the mighty 90s 729 I started tracking my P&L by day of week I got to go back and still Capture the previous previous weeks, but as you can see kind of the middle of the week, you know Tuesday I thought was actually better very small sample size But as I suspected middle of the week is my best performing so we'll start increasing size on those days you can see Wednesday and Thursday the last few weeks have been solid and Eventually, I'll go back and get the rest of that data so I can make a little bit better informed decision So day trading keeps going well P&L year-to-date a little over 21,000 on All-day trades and then if we look back Since we started tracking back in August total profits a little over 57,000 so continuing to do well there So let's go to our alerts starting with Monday The date on Monday was what the 22nd? So the first alert of the day of the week on the 22nd here. Let me scroll back Starting with SPX. So we did a weekly double calendar in SPX We already had one on in the same cycle So we just added this one with four days in the front week seven days in the back And we ended up taking that off. So I'll get to that closing trade here momentarily Rut, this is one of the iron ducks that we opened did this one with 14 days to expiration SMH Had a short strangle in SMH and we just rolled this out. We were we're dead centered on this SMH Strangle which we had adjusted into a straddle. We were at 50% of max profit So we just rolled that out to extend duration We weren't quite down to that 21 days to expiration We were 24 but we rolled it out to 59 still in our wheelhouse of under 60 days to expiration So if we go to SMH, let's check out the risk profile big day in SMH at 5% on Friday You can see we're still fairly centered here, and we're up about 160 Some dollars since we did that roll. So we'll continue to manage that one Not not back to profits yet on that one We're it's gonna take a couple more cycles and for price to stay in range for us to book a profit on that But we'll continue to manage that DE rolling adjusting trade and DE so we've got this long put vertical that we've been rolling keeping his short Delta Got to a point here where it was way far out of our range And so we went ahead and just rolled it if we take a look at DE You can see a big move here the last couple days on this bounce So it's it's bounced out of our range a little bit but looking for some downside to get back in range Holding that for short Delta In Adobe we did an earnings iron duck so they announced earnings did this one with three days to expiration We on Friday price was hanging out in the duckhead area. We had a chance I thought to potentially book close to max profit But with the market just exploding higher on Friday. We we ended up just booking a beak profit on that one Rut closing trade So here's one of our rut iron ducks that we got smoked out of so price moved lower past our exit point So we had to close that out at that point We were still holding two one with eight and one with 14 days to expiration FDX had a we added a long call diagonal So remember we added a short put vertical after earnings it opened above the expected move price came down right at the and held right at the Pre-earnings price level. So if we take a look at the chart So this red line signifies the expected move after earnings it shot up came down a little bit We got long right here and a lot of times what will happen is it'll kind of trend sideways or just shoot up now We got caught in the flush of the market So the market came down right to that pre earnings level right here on this bar And so I was waiting for to see if it would hold hold and once it did we added another bullish position and Benefitted from not only a fdx, but the rest of the market pushing this thing up But big push in fdx so on both of our positions. We're now profitable Here's the short put vertical that we put on right after earnings Could have taken this off, but you know, it's pretty close to the end of the day when we saw a real massive part of that rally So on Monday, hopefully this kind of stays up or even pushes higher and we'll book that one for a nice You know at least 50% of max profit and then we've got our long-call diagonal Which we're using what do we use in here about? 386 dollars in buying power and risk and we're already up 181 So we're already up at about 50% of max profit on that one So we'll probably take half of that off and then let the other half ride See if we see if we can get some more upside out of that one Amazon closing trade so we did an iron duck in Amazon Amazon stayed pretty strong It was way up the way up the beak So we just closed that alley close that out early booked a beak profit if we take a look at a chart of Amazon Kind of compare what Amazon has done to the rest of the market. You can see it's just been kind of chopping sideways I mean it had definitely had some couple big down days several week up days, but just kind of chopping sideways, which is just fine for our ducks Next trade closing trade and rut So this is our second iron duck that we got smoked out of on that huge down move So at this point we were just holding that 14 day duck that we put on earlier this week So if we take a look at Actually, I added one more here. So I'll go to rut here in a second IWM. This is one of our short Delta plays. This is a long put vertical We're over 50% of max profit on this. So this is like I said IWM's one tenth the size of rut So this is a short position that we had at IWM. So that benefited us So even and here's the other thing guys Even though we got smoked out of those couple iron ducks and those were painful our P&L was still positive partly because of our short Delta positions that we had on and partly because of our other You know positions like fdx and some of those others that benefited from the from the bounce So you've got to have that balance in your portfolio that you're comfortable with Obviously, we don't know what's gonna happen ahead of time if we if we know the mark's gonna crash We're gonna load up on short Delta But that's not realistic and we're holding very little short Delta because we anticipate higher prices But part of our short Delta was in IWM and on that flush We got to a point of being over 50% of max profit. So we just rolled that out from 22 days out to 57 So if you take a look at IWM Now price is obviously bounced up since we did that roll So it's a little bit out of range, but just holding this for some more downside if it comes and Then QQQ same exact thing. So we got to a point. We were over 50% of our max profit on that so we just rolled out in time and Just you know rolling some of these April's we like to spread out our rolls So we've got several Vertical spreads that we're carrying for that short Delta exposure and so we like to spread those out So that day we did IWM and QQQ again cues have bounced a little bit So it's slightly out of our range now, but we've got a lot of room to the downside if things do turn south Rut so this is the opening trade so we added another iron duck in rut did this one with 13 days to expiration So if we take a look at rut, we've still got two iron ducks delete these theoreticals So we've got this one here With a 4-2 expiration now you can see Prices on that bounce prices really moved up the beak here and there's very little chance of price getting back Into our duckhead area. So next week. We'll probably just close that out Book a profit wait for a little downside and potentially put another one on Then we've got this one here We just put on as well. This is got the 4-8 expiration pretty close to where we put it on So still a decent chance that we could get down into the duckhead area. In fact, yeah, I mean, it's we've got about a This is pretty close to where we put it on so about 85% probability that we'll we'll stay in range here So we'll continue to add ducks on any downside movements into next week as well SPX opening trade. So this was a weekly double calendar in SPX put this one on with seven days to expiration And 11 in the back week. So if we check out SPX got a lot of theoreticals here, let me get rid of those All right, so this one this one we put on and With the big jump in price and we started out right here in the center and it's all the way up at our break Even here so Monday Unless things just drop on Sunday night and the market's open much lower We'll be adding another weekly double calendar with that four days to expiration. Well at that time It'll actually be three so we may not we may go out to the next cycle with with ten and or nine and 13 Nines we like to stay between that six and eight days But nine's okay too depending on where implied volatility is obviously if the markets going down if implied volatility is spiking We're not gonna put one on but if the market continues to rally and implied volatility is contracting We'll look at this cycle here the April 7 April 9 to add another one And then just like we always manage our weekly double calendars. We are going to you know If price continues higher, we'll wait for our exit point which in this case is About 50% of our debit paid so about 954 So we've got a max loss on this one of 500 bucks So if it if it makes a push way out here, so we're if we're down 500 we'll close that out Otherwise, we'll hold it and see if we can get a bounce back into range and add another one to kind of widen out our overall break Evens on our weekly double calendars SPX so this is one of the weekly double calendars we closed so price was near the downside break even We kind of waited till later in the day and we almost got to a point of profit But I didn't want to hold this in case the market flushed lower Didn't want to take a big loss. We ended up closing this out for a small loss Had we waited a little bit longer like a little bit closer to the close of the day We could have even booked a small profit on that one, but just Scratched out of small loss and then in SPY we added a vertigo with the with the markets cranking higher and implied volatility contracting Vertigo was a good strategy to put on now with this one I mean we had that we had that late-day rally on Friday to a point where we could have actually taken this off I mean we're only targeting about 250 dollars on this trade total and we're at 240 right You know as of right now now the markets closed so that may be a little inaccurate, but I didn't I wasn't looking at this position specifically in the last 10 minutes Otherwise, I probably would have closed it. I know a couple people in the community went ahead and closed there We just put this on Friday and had that quick rally on Friday could have booked a profit same day So hopefully price holds up Maybe goes a little bit higher and we could book a little bit more But we might potentially just take this one off on Monday and book a quick profit Apple rolling adjusting trade so that another one of our short Delta plays that we rolled out We were over 50% of max profit on this piece. So just rolled it out from April to May So if we take a look at Apple You can see prices just inside range here pretty close to where we rolled it SPX this is our second weekly double calendar on this one. We managed to scratch out a tiny profit Got a big collapse in the implied volatility, which which is pretty normal on Friday And so we were we had a little bit of a loss on Thursday So we held it one more day we were able to scratch out a little profit on it And so just close that one out Adobe this is our earnings iron duck. I already mentioned we we ended up booking beak profit on this price ran higher Had it thought we had a chance to potentially book close to max profit But then when the market is ripped higher ended up just booking the beak profit, which is Which is green as well Lowe's okay, so on Lowe's we had a our initial strategy was this long call diagonal We took it we took half of it off and booked a nice profit. We held the other half looking for more profit now If we look at a chart of Lowe's We put the so we had this initial flush right after earnings on this bounce. We got short and This thing flushed lower and we booked half of our contracts there And then we held the others for a little bit more downside Well, as we can as we can now see this thing just actually absolutely Exploded higher to new all-time highs and so we ended up taking a loss on the second piece so what we did here is Because we've got a long put and a short put we went ahead and just let our short puts expire worthless Okay, so those were max profit So we just let those expire worthless and we just went ahead and held on to our long put So in case by chance Lowe's decides to make a big move lower into early next week Then we'll then we'll be able to book some profits on this long put now not very likely But if that happens, we're gonna hold on to this if we do get some down movement We'll be able to get back some more profit and you know potentially still be able to be profitable on this trade But we may be based on what we already took off and then the the explosion of the move afterwards We will probably be somewhere around a small loss, but we'll see will those expire on for two So we'll be either closing that out or just letting these expire worthless into next week and Lastly Twitter, so we had a long call diagonal in Twitter and we let our Remaining calls expire here. So if we take a look at Twitter We were we had a bullish play on Twitter, but it really got weak with the When the market started flushing with tech kind of flushing and so it did definitely didn't have the bounce that we are Looking for with with some of the other stocks in the market but so we So we ended up just Letting letting those expire and took a loss on Twitter So those are all of our trades. Let's take a look at some of our other positions We've got a an iron condor and oil you can see we're up about 160 on oil We'll want to book about 30 to 40 percent of max profit Oil's been on a wild ride. So after this little flush down it started to bounce That's when we put our iron condor on a couple days later This thing just flushed like it was going lower and then bounced all the way back and we're talking That's a 6% move down 5.5% move up 4% move down 5% move up. I mean just big swings and oil You can see the volume compared to normal Is pretty crazy, but all that motion and we're dead centered in our iron condor. So hopefully that kind of stays in range You know, maybe by the end of next week if things calm down and implied volatility can track some more We might be able to book that one Yes, we've got a long put vertical and yes is one of our short Delta plays You can see prices out of our range here need a little bit of downside to get back in in bonds So bonds I made a comment on our Position updates in the community this week that we were you know, we when prices a little bit higher We're we're right at 50% of max profit. We're gonna continue to roll this one a couple reasons one We're we're still Managing it back to profitability We're down on this one and so we're gonna continue to do it now But the but the main reason is that we've still got some nice juicy implied volatility So I like being short premium in bonds if you look at TLT, you know, you got about a 49% IV percentile You know if these if IV percentile IV rank were down, you know under 20 under 10 We would just close this thing out But based on everything else available in the market sell premium with bonds are a good choice They're moving and the implied volatility is higher And so we'll continue to extend duration on that one and continue to try to roll back to roll back to profits I mentioned Apple Boeing so Boeing had that real big strength. It pulled back I was looking for some continued strength and it just hasn't given it to us until you know Thursday and a little bit on Friday So we're down on this one a little bit Zoom this in a little bit You know, so we're down a little under 200 bucks on this one. So looking for some upside to benefit Boeing DE I mentioned DIA I mentioned Disney same thing Disney had been very strong and we were looking for some continuation and it hasn't kept up either So a couple of our long call diagonals have not have not been doing that well But remember we're keeping these super super small, you know, we're talking about $300 in risk And so we position size these two, you know, if it completely falls apart and goes goes against us We're fine taking full loss. So make sure you're position sizing correctly Because these and then on the on the flip side when these when these really go in our favor, you know We're booking 50 to 100% of max 50 to 100% of profit DK and G same thing DK and G's been super strong And then we put on a bullish play and this thing is really pulled back But I wouldn't doubt if this thing rips up to new highs here in the next week or so and on this one We've got we've got a week. So we'll see what happens if we can get some upside there We'll continue to add these in to help balance our portfolio and look for opportunities of stocks We think have more room to the upside obviously on these few we have we didn't hit those very good But for example on FedEx we did right? We only had that on for a day and it's already at 50% of max profit So we'll continue to use those a lot of it is balancing our deltas You know, we want to we want to be fairly bullish, but still keeping a little bit of short delta in our portfolio IWM I mentioned lows I mentioned QQQ's rut SMH SPX SPY as a vertigo and that lastly XLK So we're right at pretty close to where we put this on just in range Using looking for some downside to benefit that XLK is part of tech. So if we get a little bit of downside in the next week We'll probably roll this out and keep it as a short delta play We'll roll that from April to May So that's all of our alerts. That's all of our positions. Everybody. Have a good rest of your weekend Don't forget next Friday. Good Friday. The markets are closed but we'll be streaming live in our day trading room Monday through Thursday and Sending alerts Monday through Thursday as well. So see in the community. Have a good weekend