 This is the Chechen Republic. Invisible to many, Chechnya is an autonomous republic within the Greater Russian Federation. Yet the Republic differs from Russia nearly every aspect imaginable. Russia is geographically extensive, while Chechnya is certainly not. Russia overall is majority Eastern Orthodox Christian, albeit not very religious, while the vast majority of Chechnya is Muslim and very religious. Russia's population has also stagnated, with the ethnic majority Russian population falling, while Chechnya's population is steadily growing. So what makes Chechnya so unique within the Russian system, and how could the region create a geopolitical ripple effect across the entire post-Soviet space? Welcome to today's episode of Max World Politics Report. A short disclaimer. The way I'll be describing certain political figures in this video is not meant to elevate them, but to explain how their public images have had profound impacts in Chechnya's politics. With that out of the way, let's begin. Chechnya is unique in that its language belongs to a relatively small and isolated family, known as Nach Dagestanian. Their origins are a great mystery, though there is some speculation that they arrived in the North Caucasus around 10,000 years ago from the fertile Crescent with the spread of farming. The Chechens have spent centuries and perhaps millennia fighting off invaders from nearly every direction, retaining their distinct identity. With these constant battles and their mountainous geography, the Chechens obtained their renowned martial culture, making them one of the toughest nations to conquer. Despite many wars with Turkic peoples in their recent history, Chechens began to become more culturally affiliated with the Turks due to the expansion of the Russian Empire. They subsequently adopted Islam to strengthen their cultural bond with the Turks and other Caucasian people resisting the expansion of Russia. While the Empire would ultimately annex most of the Caucasus in the 19th century, the Chechens continued a bloody resistance which Russia could never completely crush. Mistrust would continue between the Chechens and Russian state, continuing into the 20th century and the rise of the Soviet Union. During World War II, Chechens were forcibly deported from their homeland to Kazakhstan, as they were falsely accused by the Russians as being Nazi collaborators. Though the Chechens would ultimately return to their land in the 1950s, the damage had been done and there would no longer be any trust between them and the Russians after their genocide. Violence escalated once again during the 1990s in the fall of the Soviet Union as Chechnya saw its opportunity to restore its ancient independence. Chechnya's post-Soviet history has produced some rather notable characters who have been instrumental in directing the nation's history. One family in particular has had tremendous power over Chechnya in recent decades, and this is none other than the Kadirov family. Their reigns started with that of Patriarch Ahmat Kadirov, well studied in the Islamic faith, and having gone to Uzbekistan to receive his education, he returned to Chechnya to support their new nation, Ichkeria. He rose through the ranks under Ichkeria's President Jahar Dudayev by leading his very own militia against Russian forces, and as a result of his Islamic education and heroism for the Chechen cause, Kadirov was appointed as the Chief Mufti in 1995. Yet growing sectarian violence in Ichkeria, along with the unstable politics following the assassination of Dudayev in 1996, and growing extreme Islamist elements, prompted Kadirov to switch sides in 1999. Upon the outbreak of the Second Chechen War, he offered his services to the Russian Federation, taking with him a militia of his followers, known as the Kadirovites. As predicted, this was a better deal for Kadirov. Heading the Chechen Republic under the Russian Federation, he oversaw the capture of Grozny in 2000, and its subsequent reintegration into the rest of Russia. However, his tenure was cut short in 2004, as he was assassinated in a stadium bombing, along with 30 others near him. The politics of the Chechen Republic would remain unstable for some time, though ultimately Kadirov's younger son Ramzan would establish himself as the sole ruler of the Republic. Ramzan Kadirov may take the cake for the most interesting figure in global politics. Crafting his image as a truly tough fighter, he boasts his abilities in mixed martial arts and firearms. He simultaneously presents himself as a devout Muslim, promoting Islamic ideals in the laws of Chechnya, and fathering 12 children in a show of pure masculine fertility. He also appears as a worldly man, having friendly relations with famous stars in your home, like Khabib Nurmagomedov, and far away like Mike Tyson. All of these attributes help build Kadirov's overbearing personality cult, giving the people the ability to trust this talented and masculine man to rule their land, and rule he does in such a totalitarian manner that there is hardly any distinction between him and other parts of the Chechen government. There is great reason to believe that he embezzled a good portion of Russia's aid to Chechnya to enrich himself and his family. Though Grosny now boasts an impressive skyline hoping to rival that of Dubai, many Chechens remain in desperate poverty to this day. Still, there is some slight genius behind what Kadirov is doing with his macho identity. Could Kadirov use his personality cult to rise up the Chechens against Russia one day and restore the independence of the nation? I believe he will, but only at the right moment, and this is where demographics come into play. Chechnya today has 1.5 million people. That is a massive increase over their population figures in 1960, where there were only around 420,000. This sharp increase in population contrasts greatly with the general trend in Russia, which had around 120 million in 1960, though has stagnated around 145 since 1990. In 1960, half of Chechnya's population was ethnically Russian. Though due to emigration and low birth rates, Russians now only comprise 1.5% of the Republic. On the other hand, Chechens, of which there were only 200,000 in 1960, have rebounded to more than 1.5 million in 2021 across Russia, and the vast majority live in Chechnya. With a fertility rate of around 2.6 children per woman, Chechnya's demographic patterns parallel those of other Muslim-majority regions in Russia, especially those in the North Caucasus. On the other hand, Russia's are declining both in total numbers and as a percentage of Russia's total population. The average fertility rate of Russia is 1.58, though this rate is more likely around 1.5 even for Russians, as Muslim ethnic groups have far higher fertility rates, bringing up the average considerably. The median age in Russia is now 40.3 years old, meaning there are very few young people in the general population. At the same time, Muslim ethnic groups, especially Chechens, are overrepresented as a percentage of young people in Russia, and as a result are rapidly growing as a percentage of the total population. Russia's population has remained stagnant over the past 30 years despite the decline of the Russian ethnicity, mostly due to Islamic population growth and immigration. People who have been around this channel for a while will now know that this is the part of the video where I explain my fanciful predictions for the future based on factors explained earlier on. While a lot of my predictions are purely speculative, I'm almost certain that something big is going to happen in Chechnya in the next 20 to 30 years or so. The Republic already functions independently in many respects, though Ramzan Kadyrov portrays himself as a staunch Putin ally. However, I don't see this alliance lasting. Chechnya largely relies on Russia to keep its economy afloat, and there is good reason to believe that Russia's economy is heading for collapse in the coming decades. I have explained this in several videos, but Russia's declining and aging population will cause a crisis where much of the society's economic energy is going to have to be placed in taking care of the elderly, with very few young people able to keep the society afloat. Having a young and growing population of its own, Chechnya would see no reason to continue under such a system. As Russia would likely face great instability during this time, Chechnya would easily find its way to independence. If Kadyrov is still in charge at this point, which is likely due to his relatively young age, he can use his popular public image to start a national uprising against Russia. Since the country would not be able to economically support Chechnya anymore, Kadyrov can easily claim the country betrayed Chechnya by abandoning it. A likely future partner for Chechnya would actually be Turkey, with whom they have established strong cultural ties in the past few centuries. Turkey would jump at this chance to obtain more influence in the Caucasus region, and further destabilize their rival Russia. Chechnya is certainly the most likely nation to declare independence, but most of the North Caucasus nations have a good chance of splitting from Russia amidst the crisis as well. Ingushetia, populated by fellow Nakh peoples, will likely reunite with Chechnya, and some parts of the ethnically diverse Dagestan may also join this greater Nakh state. The entire region would become economically linked to ally Turkey, and like Azerbaijan, Chechnya could become a junior power within the Turkish alliance structure, and Kadyrov would be tasked with keeping the North Caucasus stable. This, of course, opens many new questions, such as the fate of Armenia amidst Turkish dominance in this region, and what happens to the rest of Russia. But these are topics for another time. Will we see a Chechen state reemerge in the next 20 to 30 years? It is likely, but only time will tell. What we do know now is that Chechnya currently is a region which boasts autonomy far greater than that of any other part of Russia, and their strong culture and demographic structure have the potential to lead to some major changes in the North Caucasus very soon. I would ask my followers in the world to pay attention to this region very closely. North Caucasus nations appear invisible on a world map, but the status quo here is certainly not guaranteed. Thank you for watching today's episode. If you like my work, please consider supporting me on Patreon to obtain access to exclusive maps and future updates. Tell me in the comments what you want to see next, and I will see you then.