 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a pair of title fights coming up this weekend at USC 292 which means it is my legal obligation to you the listener to get Austin Swain back here on Covering the spread we're gonna have Austin break down both those title fights and get you ready for the entire card this weekend in USC 292 this is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Austin Swain You can check him out on Twitter at a swing three He is a senior editor for Fandall research Austin. It looks like a fantastic car this weekend. How you do it today? I'm doing great Hey, you know since UFC 292 is in Boston weigh-ins already to started at 9 a.m. Eastern and both title fights are already locked in So nothing could ruin my mood until weird stuff starts happening in baseball tonight Is that at a TD garden? Where is that at? It is at the garden in Boston So a very famous UFC venue Dana White kind of a Boston guys So they've been there a ton the crowds are always electric So I cannot wait for Saturday and that also means that the fights are probably starting at like a more normal time than when they're I guess like I'm used to UFC being in like London and stuff like this So probably a more regular schedule this week then yeah, so domestic pay-per-view is always 6 p.m. Eastern this one's actually at 6 30 because it's it's missing some fight volume But 6 p.m. Eastern is typically the earliest you'll see a domestic pay-per-view start Exactly you learn the schedule stuff like that. How common is it to have two title fights on one card? I Certainly think they typically do this with the lower weight classes like typically they could get away with just one title fight if It's a heavyweight title fight or a middleweight title fight But you do see a couple of title fights you prepared together like in this case We have men's bantam weight women's straw weight But I would argue men's bantam. It's one of the deepest UFC divisions like it's very different than when UFC started and The lower weight classes didn't get much attention. These guys are actually the most skilled So they typically pair them together. I'm excited that we got we got to a move All right We got all Jermaine Stirling taking on Sean O'Malley and John Wiley taking on Amanda Lamos Those are gonna be fights We're gonna talk about in full today and then talk about other bets Austin likes across the car to Fandall's sports book But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering this spread wherever you get your podcast We are also up on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall TV plus for Amazon fire Apple TV and Roku devices along sign up at Adams and the solo shot as well and Make sure you're checking out the solo shot there for MLB DFS coverage as well Also this week's Fandall research free roll is now live in the daily fantasy side of things We're running free rolls every week on Fandall research to celebrate the transition and thank all of number fires users for their years of loyalty this week Very timely. It's a free roll for UFC 292. They got two titles up for grabs We got free prizes for you as well lock is on Saturday evening so take all the stuff that Austin discusses apply it to daily fantasy and Find the link to get yourself entered go to fandall.com slash research click the article That's fandall.com slash research eligibility restrictions apply it Austin will have believe a podcast as well for yes That'll be on the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed later on today So you don't have to apply the betting stuff to DFS just listen to Austin on the heat check Later on today on the number fired daily fantasy podcast five feed side of things Let's talk about these fights now. Awesome. Let's begin things off with the Men's title fight from all germane sterling and Sean O'Malley as of right now the money line favor sterling It is at minus 260. O'Malley is plus 205 When you look at this fight Austin What stands out to you as far as how the bet break or the the fight breaks down and any bets you like over a fandall sports book For sure And what I appreciate most about the way that I try to do this is that I try to take put the blinders on take away all of the The noise because when I'm examining fighter a versus fighter b in this fight It is so lopsided that money line seems pretty wide But I actually think it should be wider despite the fact my model doesn't and I'll get to that in a minute But you have algemaid sterling potentially the goat in this division He will set the record for title defenses if he beats. O'Malley here eight straight wins against top 10 fighters And then on the other side you have Sean O'Malley who has won and it was a controversial split decision A bulk of the media scorecards said it should have been the opposite result and Sean should have lost But here he won so here he is because Sean O'Malley is a star and his data is flawless That's the hardest part for me when I try to break down this fight He has just one win total over anyone that has a UFC victory themselves But O'Malley has this charismatic personality. He's got the colored hair, right? UFC has made his road intentionally easy, but this is the end of the line This is as high as you can go without hand-picking matchups because algemaid sterling is the champion and you know, I have a hard time Not backing algemaid sterling in this fight even when I slant the strength of schedule Mark her towards sterling 100 percent, which it is Our algemaid sterling is an underdog in my model in this fight That's how great O'Malley is but I have to override that in this spot because of sterling's background because of his Experience and we've also seen him in better domains of MMA. He's a much better graph We're averages point eight submission attempts for 15 minutes That's not super aggressive But it could be more aggressive if O'Malley is out of his depth here And it was really difficult to find a bet. I like in this fight. I think sterling's money line is wide It's obviously against my model And there are a lot of different ways this fight can play out I think Sean O'Malley with his power with his length is live for a knockout Algemaid sterling could just kind of take control of the fight Just kind of smother O'Malley on the ground for 25 minutes could find the early submission and his striking metrics I'm talking about algemaid are excellent as well. So I don't think that it's out of the realm of possibility He finds a knockout himself In this fight. So I I ended up going my favorite bet in this fight If you go over the round props on fiend will sportsbook I'm looking at this fight to end in round one round two or round three Which is it was a minus 112 pick home on fiend will sportsbook I think that captures a dominant sterling win where O'Malley is just over his head is I hypothesize But I'm also the belief it is knockout or bust for O'Malley in this spot And that is when he is his power or any UFC fighters powers that they're precious round one round two round three If he's if sterling's wearing on him for 15 minutes He's not going to have the punching power that he did when he walked into the octagon So I don't think this is a great fight from a betting perspective I really think any specific outcome outside of O'Malley by submission Which is 22 to 1 you might as well light your money on fire It's any any sort of outcome could be on the table here With the lack of punching power and aggressiveness from sterling and the grappling So looking to the money line, I know it's not one you want to bet But you have sterling a minus 260 and you said that it feels a bit light Do you think that the sentiment the reason why the market may be a bit tighter than you're expecting Is because we haven't seen O'Malley taking on these like big time opponents People may not be making proper adjustments for strength of schedule You know, what are your thoughts on why that money line is it been more constricted than you thought? Yeah, I do I do think that sportsbooks have a mathematical algorithm like I do and that they evaluate level of competition They have certainly elo rankings for fighters And it's really tough with O'Malley because his statistics are so flawless that you look at him He really shouldn't if level of competition wasn't a factor He wouldn't lose to anybody in usc because that's that he's over 60 percent striking accuracy 60 percent striking defense He's just beat everybody up and I think they're having a hard time adjusting But also any money source that you look at Sean O'Malley's most popular underdog on this card Getting a ton of bets at this number getting a ton of the handle with this number algemaid sterling Largely ignored from just about anywhere you look you can pick your betting splits of preference and O'Malley's very popular So that makes sense and that lines up with what you'd expect from public sentiment So I think it's a little bit of a hedge against the extreme public action here And I also think it is the difficulty that I have like trying to get this my model to Properly wait Sean O'Malley's level of competition And that's obviously one of the tougher things to do especially when you're dealing inherently with small samples in usc Trying to adjust for all that stuff and make things really Accumely on the fly can be tough. Okay. So the one bet that Austin is liking here under three and a half rounds Which is minus 142 F. Andrews sportsbook that's like one it's more so you like than one you love though, correct Yeah, so jim if you if you actually look down the alternate when will the fight end uh round one Two or three there we go Um, I it was at the bottom yesterday. I'm not sure if the market's off the border what's going on But uh, yeah the under three and a half is available. There it is round one two or three might be because three and a half for an extra round My hypothesis is that if sterling is in control I don't think this fight will last very long and I don't really need that extra half round for the Sean O'Malley knockout threat So at minus 112 I prefer that bet to the under which is juiced a little bit more that gives you another half of round four I would rather take this bet if you can get both the fandom sports book Okay, so the fight to end in round one two or three minus 112 that is alternate when the fight will end Across five rounds of fandom sports, but this is why we have Austin on and not me Guiding you through the fandom sports book out, but it sounds like still even at minus 112. That's more so A lean for you than one you'd actually want it back, correct? Right. I think a lot of the equity in this in this lean is in the first two rounds And by the way, this is the great part about fandom sports Well, if they have so many UFC props available compared to competitors There are a lot of different ways you can attack these same angles Okay, let's talk about the other title fight on the card for this weekend We have got Zhang Wei Lei taking on Amanda Lemosh. That is at That is later in the night as well on saturday right now Zhang's money line is minus 325 Lemosh is plus 250 It's another one where we do have a pretty heavy favorite here. How do you see this fight breaking down, Austin? So this is a really steep money line for Zhang Wei Lei, right? And that kind of happens at this top level of women's MMA think of ronda rousey from a prior era They become the stars they get the public support But i'm just not there with Zhang Wei Lei as far as a mixed martial artist She has a just a 53% striking defense. That's not ideal. It's lower than usually see a championship level We've seen her knocked out in a title fight by rose namayunus before 66% takedown defense. That's how she lost the immediate rematch to rose namayunus And really she hasn't fought at a championship level in her last couple of fights She knocked out a retiring yohana jae cheque And then carla asparza in her last fight in a title unification about One-dimensional wrestler who basically seated 20% in size. She had no chance to take Wei Lei Zhang down It was very apparent from the opening bell But lemo she makes for an interesting matchup on paper here because she passes the size requirement first and foremost And i've got a stronger rating on her in my model than rose namayunus So I just mentioned beat Zhang Wei Lei twice and the thing about lemo She has unbelievable accuracy 57% striking accuracy very efficient with big time power She's willing to pick her spots at range and then an 81% takedown defense A lot of straw weights are just out of Zhang Wei Lei's class because of size lemo. She's not that she's done a very good job keeping her feet here My model still plays a lot of respect to Zhang. She's got the better level competition a higher plus 1.73 striking success rate But amanda lemos just beat marina rodriguez who is a one-dimensional striker plus 1.64 ssr And that was a great win as far as a striking As far as evaluating her striking talent if she can stay on her feet here I really like her my model does think there's value on lemo share a picture to win 39.2% of the time These odds imply just a 28.6 chance and the best individual value as far as a specific outcome in this fight I love lemo spy knockout. I've got it at plus 307 in my model It's coming back at plus 500 on fan dual sports books So lemo she's showing a lot of value for me in this fight and it checks out with what I believe mentally And which one do you pick between those two lemo spy knockout is 5 to 1 the money line is plus 250 You have value in both even prefer market between those two So lemo savage is nearly a submission attempt for 15 minutes. This fight has tremendous odds to be finished inside of the full distance It's not expected to go the distance. I do believe lemo. She's live for a submission here So I put a unit on her money line And then just sprinkled the knockout prop with a fractional unit as well I I prefer the money line because her submission danger is very very live in this fight Okay, so whenever I have a situation where my model deviates pretty far from the market And I think a 10 percentage point gap is a pretty wide margin I ask myself why you know, why am I separate from the market? And Does the explanation for why the market is different from me? Explain away that gap, you know, am I too high and things like that when you do that that process for this one And try to explain why lemo. She's such a big underdog What do you settle on and is that that Justification enough to nullify the value that you have I mean, I think it could be as simple as people know who way le jong is and they don't know who lemo is Because lemo, she's never fought on a pay-per-view card. She's actually I'm pretty sure this is only her second fight in front of a live crowd She was at ufc long island last summer But jung wele has been in title fights. She was in the fight of the year in 2021 against yonah You jcheck in their first matchup like jung wele is just more well known and of course, she's the defending champion Which will also influence the money line Um, I typically as funny as this is going to sound I don't see a 10 difference as far as my model As large as maybe in a sport like you do with nascar because These ufc lines are influenced for very odd reasons. We're going to actually talk about that in the next money line That you see upwards It really I do it analytically but of course like you said the samples are so small in ufc That there are so many other factors that actually go into setting these money lines Um, I more so use this as confirmation of my model is looking at lemo's just historical stats It sees openings for her and that matches what I feel with wele jung Which is she's got these vulnerabilities in certain areas that I don't think she should carry this implied probability to win Okay, so austin's favorite bet in this match is lemo's his money line plus 250 right now fangirl sportsbook And potentially to win by knockout or technical knockout at five to one as well Let's talk about the rest of this card austin We've got a bunch of other fights available for this weekend when you look at the other money lines specifically on this card Where you're seeing value right now fangirl sportsbook So if you want to lock it in winner, this is not the bet for you But I see a lot of value here that with the largest underdog on the card here neil magnie was coming back in plus 360 last night I'm not sure if this line is continued to move Against him overnight. It is plus 370 now. Yeah, it is moved all week um, gary gary opened around minus 200 and this thing has just ballooned upwards and um If when you look at ian gary, he is an undefeated welterweight from ireland who is very brash a powerful striker If an irish powerful striker who is very brash comes to mind That is connor mcgregor and these two, you know, they have locked paths and he's certainly taken that mold on Was showing out yesterday at the ufc press conference The problem is is that he doesn't have what connor mcgregor had when he was ascending through ufc Which is a sharp analytical background and a great record of opponents that he was beating Just earlier this year some canon very forgettable guy in ufc 4 and 3 dropped ian gary Nearly knocked him out cold and now ian gary later this year is taking on a ranked opponent in neil magny He just has a lot of holes in his profile 53% striking defense gary gets hit Quite a bit magny doesn't have the power per se to like just make up for it all in one shot But he could find some success at range here with a six inch reach advantage And we haven't seen ian gary wrestle or grapple at all in ufc and that is neil magny's specialty Magny's a gritty veteran that'll put you up against the cage has a lot of sneaky trips Um And he's been fighting ranked competition neil magny's 7 and 3 in his last 10 fights All three of his losses came in grappling situations He was taken down a bunch a couple submissions and you know at 25 years old I know full well, this will be the best version of ian gary. We've seen so far at 36 years old It might be the worst version of neil magny. We've seen so far But i've got this so wide that i can't ignore it and again This is just based on their historical data, but my monobloids magny is 58.1% likely to win But there are other factors here gary improving gary's age I understand his place is the favorite because he's the more dynamic athlete here He's the guy with knockout power, but there are so many questions. We have about him Things that magny does well like wrestling and grappling magny over a 40 percent takedown accuracy and a gigantic sample exceeding 20 fights He's great at that. So I really think magny can stall against this if the money line is a little too rich for you I think you could look at over two and a half rounds, which is plus 100 Which is basically a case to say ian gary's gonna have a tougher night at the office here than expected via this money line Yeah, the money line for magny is plus 370 mentioned this plus 360 last night You said that they've been taking on money on gary. So that money line has been extending I want to ask you about your thought process on when to bet this one Because if it's still extending to plus 370 that implies there's a chance we can get it at longer later on Are you willing to hold out and kind of see if we can get a better number at plus than plus 370 later on we see a lot of interesting money come in saturday mornings in different sports and you'll see You know favorites extend as they're being tacked on the parlays and stuff like that Do you want to wait on magny to see if you can get better than plus 370? Or is that a bit too greedy and you want to take it now to ensure you lock in that value? Yeah, so I I think you absolutely can wait on this guy You really just have to a lot of the money that comes in saturday morning A lot of sharp betters have already taken gary at a much shorter number You know parlayed him in certain respects had all sorts of different ways to attack an angle despite now This thing is ballooning to a point where I think you can wait I don't expect money to come in on magny from either public betters or sharp betters. I think you can wait I would I would feel very confident if this line moved back toward magny just a touch already because that means post weigh-ins As people continue to do more tape on gary They start to see openings and I you know, I've talked to a couple of betters that are wagering Five figures as far as units are concerned And they have an interest in magny in a lot of different ways over two and a half rounds magny by decision If plus 550 and the thing about these money lines is you can kind of attack them in fraction of units So you don't really have to put a full unit down on neil magnia plus 360 if you see value I have a fractional unit on on this play. It's not really a a full unit lock it in love his position to win I just think he's extremely undervalued in this spot It's the guy with a better level of competition and all of the data that's quality Yeah, you should always account for the fact that even a plus 370 if we if we assume that the market is correct The implied odds of winning are 22% or a little bit lower than 22% so keep that in mind when you're allocating Uh, your bets there, but magny plus 370 of value for austin Which you could potentially get a bit longer if you were to wait on that any other money lines you like across usc 292 Yes, so I actually feel much better about this one as far as a winner But she's still coming back at plus 280 that is andrea kgb lee on the early prelims She's taking on natalia selva here very interesting prospect in this women's flyweight division But it's kind of a similar handicap lee is the one that is ranked She's been fighting ranked competition as the established veteran Natalia selva has not natalia selva has beaten a couple of ufc fighters that might be handed their walking papers before the end of 2023 And andrea lee can strike plus 1.54 striking success rate as far as my models expected wins are concerned It looks at the peripheral data and says should this fighter have won over 50% of the time She's 5 and 5 in ufc as far as expected wins are concerned. It would have given her the nod in 10 out of 10 fights So that's how unlucky she's been She's had three split decisions with the judges scorecard as well as a couple of unanimous decisions where she actually Was the better more efficient strikers So a lot of unlucky decision related results, which can happen with mma judging from time to time It's why a lot of these ai bots that judge are kind of interesting And the one shortcoming andrea lee has had against top level competition 54% takedown defense is not very good. That has been where natalia selva has struggled so far Selva landing just one of her three takedown attempts so far. She's more of a striker She doesn't really do it by all for all intents and purposes We're expecting a striking match here and andrea lee four inches in reach 64 striking defense is 95th percentile For this division and she's got all these this giant sample to prove it as well I feel so good about her I think plus 280 is a gift and I really do think she wins this fight as the more experienced longer fighter And this one does appear to be taking a bit of money on lee because she has shortened to plus 270 So still very similar to what you had in a plus 280 But it is shorting a bit so it doesn't like there is at least some interest in the public To get in on lee, which is currently plus 270 on her money line. What about some prop sauce? Any props you like across this card? For sure, and I'm gonna go with a couple of UFC veterans on this guy on the on the prelim card I'm looking at Gregory Rodriguez. He's taken on dentists to lulin and The last place that you want to be in UFC is on a losing streak Gregory Rodriguez and now acknowledge this in his press conference. He said I fell in love with my hands I was knocking dudes out, but I am a grappling fighter. That's why I got knocked out in my last fight And I agree Gregory Rodriguez. I'm looking if you go to the method and round combo market I love Gregory Rodriguez by round one submission here sitting at plus 425 at least when I saw it last night And Rodriguez, I think he did the promotion of favor earlier this year He took on a last minute opponent who was very strong very powerful ended up getting knocked out They are giving him every chance to rebound here because dentists to lulin is a terrible grappler He has a 72 take down defense, which is not bad But it's also not perfect and anytime he's gotten there. He was submitted quickly and Rodriguez Average is 2.2 takedowns for 15 minutes really solid 50 efficiency And I talked about algemene sterling slanting the competition level 100 his direction That's 100 in rodriguez's direction here. He's bought much better guys in UFC And he's averaged 0.6 submission attempts for 15 minutes with the right game plan I think this is over very quickly for the black belt It is not always employed But I loved hearing that from him at the press conference that he thinks I need to get back to grappling That's a clear advantage for him in this fight I still think he can certainly win it if he goes to striking. He's got the better striking success rate But this is my favorite favorite on the card and I love attacking this with a quick submission I think other people heard the same press conference as you because this is short into plus 360 now Rodriguez by submission in round one Is that too short because that's a pretty big difference 425 to 360 Is that too big where you no longer see value as always shop around to see what you can find But like is that short enough where you're no longer on it? So my model can't project specific rounds But I've actually got Gregory Rodriguez as minus money to actually find a submission in this fight So I still feel very confident about that once again Um, I actually was talking to a buddy right before we hopped on here You could hedge this with round two submission which comes in a longer number But I feel like as soon as rodriguez is successful in getting the takedown that he will quickly find a submission That's what happened to diloulin. He seated a takedown was quickly submitted in his other two fights I think it will happen again here Alrighty, so Gregory Rodriguez by submission in round one is plus 360 at vandal sportsbook as he takes on denis diloulin Any other props you like across usb 292 Yeah, and I was having a tough time deciding how to attack this big gap in my model where It sees a lot of value in on the main card of marlin cheeto vera taken on Pedro Munoz To be finished inside the distance now It still believes over 50 of the time that this fight will find a decision But if you look at the round betting on vandal sportsbook over two and a half round series like minus 380 They are full on expecting a decision My model says it's about a 52 55 percent somewhere in their probability So when i'm looking at an early finish, there's one dude that I believe can finish this fight early It is marlin cheeto vera five inch reach advantage massive knockdown rate for bantam weight 1.09 percent That is as good as it gets and Pedro Munoz much smaller guy Vera's a finisher eight of his last 10 ufc wins have come by a finish But the last two came via decision So that recent memory is kind of in the public's mind But in by and large he is a finisher right and I look at this My model has cheeto vera to win by knockout tko submission. So that's in the double chance market It's kind of what I prefer to as an inside the distance prop My model has it at plus 223 is currently sitting at plus 340 I think the best way to get there on sportsbook you go to popular Um, and then double chance if you scroll down a little bit It might be at the very bottom now. Thank you A lot of props to sift through but by knockout to tko or submission sitting at plus 340 I'm actually I don't actually see what it says there, but my model has it at plus 223 So I feel great about this bet um and vera is kind of a slow starter He often punts the first round intentionally to kind of get his reads You know just kind of see what his opponent is doing and if that's the case and he is trailing late That aids this bet and I that's why I feel better about this bet than backing his money line straight up at minus 210 Because if he's intentionally throwing one of the three rounds away his win probability drops dramatically after round one Even if that is mathematically, I should say it drops after round one He's found a way to come from behind to find the finish. I still wouldn't recommend it I prefer this as a method that he could possibly rally before the end Or maybe it's possible his athletic advantages just starts munoz right away is a late notice fight He's been fighting much better competition. I love cheeto vera in this spot Okay, that is again a double chance market at fendall's sportsbook marlin vera by knockout Or submission knockout technical knockout or submission plus 340 right now over at fendall That is austin sway make sure you check him out on twitter at a swing three fun all of his work over at fendall research austin I appreciate the time that's always have fun on the heat check later on today breaking down all these Fights made dfs perspective. I appreciate the time and enjoy the fights this weekend. Absolutely. I can't wait I appreciate that. We're gonna have a good time on the heat check. I'll put with wayans completing I'll probably have that guy out here in a couple of hours if you're looking to fill out that Free roll for fendall research. Not sure what you're doing. I'll give you reasons to consider both sides and build your own unique lineup I love it. All right. Make sure you check that out on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and find Also on twitter at a swing three. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow fendall research at fendall research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Have a fantastic weekend We'll talk to you once again on monday. This has been covering the spread right here on the fendall podcast network